Opinion Poll by YouGov, 20–24 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.8–30.7% 27.4–31.2% 27.1–31.5% 26.4–32.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.2% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.6% 9.1–13.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.4% 6.4–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.0–7.6% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.1% 5.3–8.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.8% 4.2–6.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 225 211–239 208–243 205–246 199–252
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 139 129–150 126–154 123–156 119–161
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 123 113–133 111–136 108–139 105–145
Alternative für Deutschland 94 86 77–94 74–96 72–98 69–102
Die Linke 69 62 55–69 54–72 52–73 49–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 46–59 45–61 43–63 41–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 38 0–43 0–45 0–47 0–50

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.1% 99.7%  
199 0.2% 99.7%  
200 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
201 0.3% 99.2%  
202 0.3% 98.9%  
203 0.6% 98.7%  
204 0.5% 98%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.9% 97%  
207 0.8% 96%  
208 1.1% 95%  
209 0.9% 94%  
210 2% 93%  
211 2% 91%  
212 1.1% 89%  
213 2% 88%  
214 3% 86%  
215 2% 83%  
216 2% 81%  
217 3% 79%  
218 2% 76%  
219 5% 73%  
220 3% 69%  
221 5% 65%  
222 3% 61%  
223 3% 58%  
224 4% 55%  
225 3% 51% Median
226 3% 48%  
227 4% 45%  
228 3% 41%  
229 4% 38%  
230 3% 34%  
231 2% 31%  
232 2% 28%  
233 3% 26%  
234 3% 23%  
235 2% 20%  
236 2% 18%  
237 2% 16%  
238 3% 14%  
239 1.5% 11%  
240 1.1% 10%  
241 1.2% 9%  
242 2% 7%  
243 0.9% 5%  
244 0.8% 4%  
245 0.7% 4%  
246 0.6% 3%  
247 0.7% 2%  
248 0.3% 2%  
249 0.4% 1.4%  
250 0.2% 1.0%  
251 0.2% 0.8%  
252 0.2% 0.6%  
253 0.1% 0.4%  
254 0.1% 0.3%  
255 0.1% 0.3%  
256 0.1% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0.1% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.3% 99.6%  
120 0.2% 99.3%  
121 0.4% 99.1%  
122 0.6% 98.7%  
123 0.6% 98%  
124 1.0% 97%  
125 0.9% 96%  
126 2% 96%  
127 2% 94%  
128 1.4% 92%  
129 3% 91%  
130 2% 88%  
131 4% 86%  
132 3% 82%  
133 3% 79%  
134 7% 77%  
135 2% 69%  
136 6% 67%  
137 4% 62%  
138 5% 58%  
139 5% 53% Median
140 4% 48%  
141 5% 45%  
142 4% 39%  
143 4% 36%  
144 6% 32%  
145 2% 26%  
146 4% 23%  
147 2% 19%  
148 2% 17%  
149 4% 15%  
150 1.2% 11%  
151 2% 10%  
152 2% 8%  
153 1.1% 6%  
154 2% 5%  
155 0.6% 3%  
156 0.4% 3%  
157 0.9% 2%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.4% 1.1%  
160 0.2% 0.8%  
161 0.1% 0.6%  
162 0.2% 0.5%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.2%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.3% 99.5%  
106 0.4% 99.2%  
107 0.6% 98.8%  
108 0.9% 98%  
109 1.2% 97%  
110 1.0% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 2% 94%  
113 3% 91%  
114 3% 89%  
115 2% 86%  
116 4% 83%  
117 4% 79%  
118 3% 75%  
119 4% 72%  
120 6% 68%  
121 5% 62%  
122 5% 57%  
123 4% 52% Median
124 4% 48%  
125 5% 44%  
126 4% 38%  
127 5% 35%  
128 4% 30%  
129 4% 26%  
130 3% 22%  
131 4% 19%  
132 3% 15%  
133 2% 12%  
134 3% 10%  
135 1.3% 7%  
136 2% 6%  
137 0.7% 4%  
138 0.8% 3%  
139 0.7% 3%  
140 0.4% 2%  
141 0.3% 1.4%  
142 0.3% 1.1%  
143 0.1% 0.8%  
144 0.1% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.6%  
146 0.1% 0.4%  
147 0.1% 0.3%  
148 0.1% 0.2%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0.1% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.5%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 99.0%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 0.9% 97%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 2% 93%  
77 2% 91%  
78 3% 89%  
79 3% 86%  
80 3% 82%  
81 6% 79%  
82 5% 73%  
83 6% 69%  
84 7% 63%  
85 5% 56%  
86 6% 52% Median
87 8% 46%  
88 5% 38%  
89 5% 33%  
90 5% 28%  
91 7% 23%  
92 3% 17%  
93 4% 14%  
94 3% 10% Last Result
95 2% 7%  
96 1.2% 5%  
97 1.0% 4%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 0.4% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.1%  
101 0.1% 0.7%  
102 0.2% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.6%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 1.0% 98.7%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 3% 92%  
56 4% 89%  
57 6% 86%  
58 6% 80%  
59 7% 74%  
60 6% 66%  
61 7% 60%  
62 9% 53% Median
63 6% 44%  
64 6% 39%  
65 7% 33%  
66 5% 25%  
67 4% 20%  
68 4% 17%  
69 3% 13% Last Result
70 3% 10%  
71 2% 7%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.2% 4%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.5% 2%  
76 0.5% 1.1%  
77 0.2% 0.7%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.5% 99.5%  
42 0.7% 99.0%  
43 1.3% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 95%  
46 3% 93% Last Result
47 4% 90%  
48 5% 85%  
49 7% 80%  
50 8% 73%  
51 8% 65%  
52 7% 58%  
53 7% 51% Median
54 7% 43%  
55 7% 37%  
56 7% 29%  
57 6% 22%  
58 4% 17%  
59 4% 13%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.3%  
66 0.4% 0.9%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100%  
1 0% 51%  
2 0% 51%  
3 0% 51%  
4 0% 51%  
5 0% 51%  
6 0% 51%  
7 0% 51%  
8 0% 51%  
9 0% 51%  
10 0% 51%  
11 0% 51%  
12 0% 51%  
13 0% 51%  
14 0% 51%  
15 0% 51%  
16 0% 51%  
17 0% 51%  
18 0% 51%  
19 0% 51%  
20 0% 51%  
21 0% 51%  
22 0% 51%  
23 0% 51%  
24 0% 51%  
25 0% 51%  
26 0% 51%  
27 0% 51%  
28 0% 51%  
29 0% 51%  
30 0% 51%  
31 0% 51%  
32 0% 51%  
33 0% 51%  
34 0% 51%  
35 0% 51%  
36 0% 51%  
37 0.4% 51%  
38 8% 50% Median
39 9% 42%  
40 8% 33%  
41 7% 25%  
42 5% 19%  
43 4% 14%  
44 3% 9%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 4%  
47 1.0% 3%  
48 0.7% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.5%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 540 100% 518–563 515–566 512–569 507–574
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 438 100% 422–453 418–457 415–461 408–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 421 100% 407–440 404–443 400–447 394–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 417 100% 397–437 394–441 391–446 384–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 402 100% 381–420 377–423 375–428 369–436
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 385 99.2% 367–401 362–405 359–408 353–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 363 70% 345–382 341–386 338–389 331–396
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 324 0.8% 308–342 304–347 301–350 295–356
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 299 0% 278–318 275–322 271–326 266–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 284 0% 263–304 259–308 256–311 250–317
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 248–278 244–283 241–285 235–292
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 186 0% 173–198 169–201 168–205 162–211
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 147 0% 121–168 119–172 117–174 112–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.9%  
504 0% 99.8%  
505 0.1% 99.7%  
506 0.1% 99.7%  
507 0.3% 99.6%  
508 0.3% 99.3%  
509 0.5% 99.0%  
510 0.5% 98.5%  
511 0.4% 98%  
512 0.4% 98%  
513 0.9% 97%  
514 0.6% 96%  
515 2% 96%  
516 2% 94%  
517 1.5% 92%  
518 1.5% 90%  
519 0.8% 89%  
520 2% 88%  
521 3% 86%  
522 4% 84%  
523 3% 80%  
524 4% 77%  
525 1.2% 73%  
526 0.9% 71%  
527 1.3% 71%  
528 2% 69%  
529 4% 67%  
530 4% 63%  
531 3% 59%  
532 0.9% 56%  
533 0.5% 55%  
534 0.7% 55%  
535 1.0% 54%  
536 1.1% 53%  
537 1.0% 52%  
538 0.6% 51%  
539 0.3% 50%  
540 0.3% 50% Median
541 0.6% 50%  
542 0.5% 49%  
543 1.0% 49%  
544 0.7% 48%  
545 0.9% 47%  
546 1.0% 46%  
547 0.7% 45%  
548 2% 45%  
549 1.2% 43%  
550 2% 42%  
551 2% 40%  
552 2% 38%  
553 3% 36%  
554 1.0% 34%  
555 4% 33%  
556 3% 29%  
557 3% 25%  
558 4% 23%  
559 2% 19%  
560 1.4% 17%  
561 2% 16%  
562 1.3% 13%  
563 2% 12%  
564 1.1% 10%  
565 3% 9%  
566 1.5% 6%  
567 0.8% 4%  
568 0.9% 4%  
569 0.5% 3%  
570 0.7% 2%  
571 0.4% 1.5%  
572 0.3% 1.1%  
573 0.2% 0.8%  
574 0.2% 0.6%  
575 0.1% 0.4%  
576 0.1% 0.3%  
577 0.1% 0.2%  
578 0.1% 0.2%  
579 0% 0.1%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.7%  
408 0.2% 99.6%  
409 0.2% 99.4%  
410 0.2% 99.3%  
411 0.3% 99.1%  
412 0.2% 98.8%  
413 0.4% 98.5%  
414 0.3% 98%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.3% 97%  
417 0.7% 97%  
418 2% 96%  
419 0.6% 95%  
420 2% 94%  
421 2% 92%  
422 2% 90%  
423 2% 89%  
424 2% 87%  
425 2% 84%  
426 1.3% 83%  
427 2% 82%  
428 1.1% 79%  
429 3% 78%  
430 2% 76%  
431 3% 74%  
432 3% 71%  
433 3% 68%  
434 5% 66%  
435 2% 61%  
436 3% 59%  
437 4% 55%  
438 4% 51%  
439 2% 47%  
440 4% 45%  
441 1.0% 41%  
442 1.2% 40%  
443 3% 39%  
444 2% 36%  
445 2% 34%  
446 3% 32%  
447 3% 29%  
448 3% 26%  
449 3% 23%  
450 4% 20%  
451 3% 16%  
452 2% 13%  
453 3% 11%  
454 0.8% 8%  
455 0.8% 7% Median
456 1.1% 7%  
457 0.7% 6%  
458 0.5% 5%  
459 0.8% 4%  
460 0.8% 4%  
461 0.6% 3%  
462 0.8% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.4%  
464 0.5% 1.1%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.5%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0% 99.8%  
392 0.1% 99.7%  
393 0.1% 99.6%  
394 0.1% 99.5%  
395 0.1% 99.4%  
396 0.2% 99.3%  
397 0.2% 99.2%  
398 0.3% 99.0%  
399 0.7% 98.6%  
400 0.5% 98%  
401 1.0% 97%  
402 0.6% 97%  
403 0.8% 96%  
404 1.3% 95%  
405 1.2% 94%  
406 2% 93%  
407 3% 91%  
408 2% 88%  
409 2% 86%  
410 2% 84%  
411 2% 82%  
412 3% 80%  
413 2% 76%  
414 4% 74%  
415 3% 70%  
416 3% 67%  
417 3% 64%  
418 3% 61%  
419 3% 59%  
420 3% 56%  
421 4% 53%  
422 2% 49%  
423 3% 47%  
424 2% 44%  
425 3% 42%  
426 4% 38%  
427 3% 34%  
428 3% 31%  
429 2% 28%  
430 3% 26%  
431 2% 24%  
432 1.2% 22%  
433 1.4% 21%  
434 2% 19%  
435 1.3% 17%  
436 2% 15%  
437 1.3% 14%  
438 1.3% 12%  
439 0.9% 11% Median
440 2% 10%  
441 1.2% 8%  
442 0.9% 7%  
443 1.2% 6%  
444 0.8% 5%  
445 0.8% 4%  
446 0.7% 3%  
447 0.4% 3%  
448 0.6% 2%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.4% 1.2%  
451 0.2% 0.8%  
452 0.2% 0.6%  
453 0.1% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.2% 99.6%  
385 0.2% 99.4%  
386 0.2% 99.2%  
387 0.3% 99.1%  
388 0.4% 98.8%  
389 0.4% 98%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 0.6% 98%  
392 0.9% 97%  
393 1.0% 96%  
394 1.0% 95%  
395 1.1% 94%  
396 2% 93%  
397 1.4% 91%  
398 2% 90%  
399 2% 88%  
400 1.2% 86%  
401 2% 85%  
402 3% 83%  
403 2% 80%  
404 2% 78%  
405 2% 76%  
406 2% 75%  
407 3% 73%  
408 3% 70%  
409 2% 67%  
410 3% 65%  
411 3% 63%  
412 3% 60%  
413 2% 57%  
414 2% 55%  
415 1.0% 53%  
416 0.8% 52%  
417 2% 51% Median
418 2% 49%  
419 1.1% 47%  
420 2% 46%  
421 3% 44%  
422 2% 41%  
423 2% 39%  
424 2% 37%  
425 2% 35%  
426 1.1% 33%  
427 2% 32%  
428 0.9% 30%  
429 2% 29%  
430 2% 26%  
431 2% 25%  
432 3% 23%  
433 2% 20%  
434 4% 18%  
435 1.3% 15%  
436 2% 13%  
437 2% 11%  
438 2% 9%  
439 0.8% 7%  
440 1.2% 6%  
441 0.4% 5%  
442 0.4% 5%  
443 0.8% 4%  
444 0.7% 4%  
445 0.2% 3%  
446 0.6% 3%  
447 0.3% 2%  
448 0.4% 2%  
449 0.3% 1.3%  
450 0.4% 1.0%  
451 0.2% 0.6%  
452 0.2% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.3% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.4%  
371 0.1% 99.2%  
372 0.4% 99.1%  
373 0.5% 98.7%  
374 0.6% 98%  
375 0.7% 98%  
376 1.1% 97%  
377 0.8% 96%  
378 1.0% 95%  
379 0.7% 94%  
380 2% 93%  
381 2% 92%  
382 3% 90%  
383 2% 87%  
384 2% 85%  
385 1.1% 83%  
386 0.8% 82%  
387 3% 82%  
388 5% 79%  
389 3% 74%  
390 1.1% 71%  
391 2% 70%  
392 1.5% 67%  
393 2% 66%  
394 1.0% 64%  
395 3% 63%  
396 1.0% 61%  
397 3% 59%  
398 1.1% 57%  
399 2% 56% Last Result
400 1.2% 54%  
401 2% 53% Median
402 1.4% 51%  
403 2% 50%  
404 2% 48%  
405 2% 46%  
406 2% 44%  
407 3% 42%  
408 2% 39%  
409 2% 37%  
410 3% 35%  
411 2% 32%  
412 3% 30%  
413 2% 27%  
414 4% 25%  
415 2% 21%  
416 3% 19%  
417 2% 16%  
418 1.2% 14%  
419 2% 13%  
420 1.4% 11%  
421 2% 10%  
422 1.2% 8%  
423 1.4% 6%  
424 0.6% 5%  
425 0.7% 4%  
426 0.6% 4%  
427 0.3% 3%  
428 0.5% 3%  
429 0.6% 2%  
430 0.4% 2%  
431 0.2% 1.3%  
432 0.2% 1.1%  
433 0.1% 0.9%  
434 0.1% 0.8%  
435 0.1% 0.6%  
436 0.2% 0.6%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.2% 99.6%  
354 0.2% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.2% Majority
356 0.4% 99.0%  
357 0.4% 98.6%  
358 0.3% 98%  
359 0.8% 98%  
360 0.7% 97%  
361 0.9% 96%  
362 1.0% 96%  
363 0.7% 95%  
364 1.1% 94%  
365 1.0% 93%  
366 2% 92%  
367 0.9% 90%  
368 2% 89%  
369 2% 88%  
370 2% 85%  
371 3% 84%  
372 2% 81%  
373 2% 79%  
374 3% 77%  
375 2% 74%  
376 2% 72%  
377 2% 70%  
378 2% 68%  
379 3% 66%  
380 3% 64%  
381 2% 61%  
382 2% 58%  
383 2% 56%  
384 3% 53%  
385 3% 50%  
386 2% 48%  
387 3% 46%  
388 2% 43%  
389 3% 41%  
390 2% 38%  
391 2% 36%  
392 4% 34%  
393 4% 30%  
394 2% 26%  
395 3% 24%  
396 2% 21%  
397 2% 19%  
398 2% 17%  
399 1.4% 15%  
400 3% 14%  
401 2% 11%  
402 2% 9% Median
403 1.3% 8%  
404 1.0% 6%  
405 0.6% 5%  
406 0.7% 5%  
407 0.7% 4%  
408 1.0% 3%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.5% 2%  
411 0.3% 2%  
412 0.3% 1.2%  
413 0.2% 0.9%  
414 0.2% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.5%  
416 0.2% 0.4%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0.1% 0.2%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.7%  
331 0.2% 99.7%  
332 0.1% 99.5%  
333 0.2% 99.4%  
334 0.2% 99.1%  
335 0.3% 98.9%  
336 0.4% 98.6%  
337 0.6% 98%  
338 0.4% 98%  
339 0.5% 97%  
340 0.7% 97% Last Result
341 1.0% 96%  
342 1.2% 95%  
343 1.3% 94%  
344 1.4% 92%  
345 1.4% 91%  
346 2% 90%  
347 2% 88%  
348 2% 86%  
349 2% 85%  
350 3% 83%  
351 3% 80%  
352 1.3% 78%  
353 4% 76%  
354 2% 72%  
355 4% 70% Majority
356 2% 67%  
357 3% 65%  
358 2% 62%  
359 2% 60%  
360 3% 58%  
361 3% 55%  
362 2% 53%  
363 2% 50%  
364 2% 49% Median
365 2% 47%  
366 2% 45%  
367 1.3% 42%  
368 2% 41%  
369 3% 39%  
370 2% 36%  
371 3% 34%  
372 2% 31%  
373 2% 29%  
374 3% 27%  
375 2% 24%  
376 2% 22%  
377 2% 21%  
378 1.3% 19%  
379 2% 18%  
380 3% 15%  
381 2% 13%  
382 2% 11%  
383 1.1% 10%  
384 1.3% 8%  
385 1.3% 7%  
386 0.8% 6%  
387 0.9% 5%  
388 1.1% 4%  
389 0.6% 3%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.2% 2%  
392 0.4% 2%  
393 0.3% 1.2%  
394 0.2% 0.9%  
395 0.2% 0.7%  
396 0.1% 0.5%  
397 0.2% 0.4%  
398 0% 0.3%  
399 0.1% 0.2%  
400 0.1% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.2% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.2% 99.5%  
296 0.2% 99.3%  
297 0.3% 99.1%  
298 0.3% 98.8%  
299 0.5% 98%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 1.0% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 0.7% 96%  
304 0.6% 95%  
305 1.0% 95%  
306 1.3% 94%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 91%  
309 3% 89%  
310 1.4% 86%  
311 2% 85%  
312 2% 83%  
313 2% 81%  
314 3% 79%  
315 2% 76%  
316 4% 74%  
317 4% 70%  
318 2% 66%  
319 2% 64%  
320 3% 62%  
321 2% 59%  
322 3% 57%  
323 2% 54%  
324 3% 52% Median
325 3% 50%  
326 2% 47%  
327 2% 44%  
328 2% 42%  
329 3% 39%  
330 3% 36%  
331 2% 34%  
332 2% 32%  
333 2% 30%  
334 2% 28%  
335 3% 26%  
336 2% 23%  
337 2% 21%  
338 3% 19%  
339 2% 16%  
340 2% 15%  
341 2% 12%  
342 0.9% 11%  
343 2% 10%  
344 1.0% 8%  
345 1.1% 7%  
346 0.7% 6%  
347 1.0% 5%  
348 0.9% 4%  
349 0.7% 4%  
350 0.8% 3%  
351 0.3% 2%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.4% 1.4%  
354 0.1% 1.0%  
355 0.2% 0.8% Majority
356 0.2% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0.2% 99.8%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.2% 99.5%  
267 0.3% 99.3%  
268 0.2% 99.1%  
269 0.5% 98.9%  
270 0.4% 98%  
271 0.6% 98%  
272 0.6% 97%  
273 0.8% 97%  
274 0.6% 96%  
275 2% 95%  
276 1.2% 94%  
277 1.1% 93%  
278 2% 92%  
279 1.4% 90%  
280 1.1% 88%  
281 2% 87%  
282 3% 86%  
283 1.3% 83%  
284 2% 82%  
285 2% 80%  
286 3% 78%  
287 2% 75%  
288 2% 73%  
289 2% 70%  
290 2% 69%  
291 2% 66%  
292 1.4% 64%  
293 3% 63%  
294 2% 60%  
295 1.4% 58%  
296 3% 57%  
297 2% 54%  
298 1.2% 52%  
299 1.2% 51%  
300 2% 50%  
301 1.3% 48%  
302 2% 47%  
303 2% 45%  
304 2% 43%  
305 1.3% 41%  
306 4% 39%  
307 2% 35%  
308 2% 33%  
309 2% 31%  
310 2% 29%  
311 3% 27%  
312 3% 24%  
313 2% 21%  
314 1.4% 18%  
315 1.3% 17%  
316 3% 16% Median
317 2% 13%  
318 2% 11%  
319 1.0% 9%  
320 1.5% 8%  
321 1.0% 6%  
322 0.7% 5%  
323 0.8% 5%  
324 0.8% 4%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.5% 3% Last Result
327 0.6% 2%  
328 0.3% 2%  
329 0.3% 1.2%  
330 0.2% 0.9%  
331 0.2% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.8%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.1% 99.6%  
251 0.3% 99.5%  
252 0.2% 99.2%  
253 0.3% 99.0%  
254 0.3% 98.7%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.4% 98%  
257 0.8% 97%  
258 0.7% 97%  
259 1.0% 96%  
260 1.4% 95%  
261 1.4% 94%  
262 1.2% 92%  
263 2% 91%  
264 1.3% 89%  
265 3% 87%  
266 2% 85%  
267 2% 83%  
268 2% 81%  
269 2% 79%  
270 1.3% 77%  
271 2% 75%  
272 1.3% 73%  
273 2% 72%  
274 2% 70%  
275 3% 68%  
276 2% 65%  
277 3% 64%  
278 2% 61%  
279 1.2% 59%  
280 2% 58%  
281 1.0% 56%  
282 2% 55%  
283 2% 53%  
284 2% 51%  
285 2% 49%  
286 1.2% 47%  
287 1.2% 46%  
288 2% 45%  
289 2% 43%  
290 2% 40%  
291 2% 38%  
292 3% 36%  
293 2% 33%  
294 2% 30%  
295 2% 28%  
296 3% 26%  
297 2% 23%  
298 2% 21%  
299 2% 18%  
300 1.4% 16% Last Result, Median
301 2% 15%  
302 2% 13%  
303 2% 12%  
304 2% 10%  
305 1.1% 8%  
306 1.3% 7%  
307 0.5% 6%  
308 1.3% 5%  
309 0.8% 4%  
310 0.5% 3%  
311 0.8% 3%  
312 0.3% 2%  
313 0.3% 2%  
314 0.3% 1.3%  
315 0.2% 1.0%  
316 0.1% 0.8%  
317 0.2% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.4%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 99.9%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.2% 99.7%  
235 0.2% 99.5%  
236 0.2% 99.3%  
237 0.2% 99.1%  
238 0.4% 98.9%  
239 0.4% 98%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.6% 98%  
242 0.7% 97%  
243 1.1% 96%  
244 1.3% 95%  
245 0.8% 94%  
246 1.1% 93%  
247 1.3% 92%  
248 2% 91%  
249 1.3% 89%  
250 3% 87%  
251 3% 84%  
252 2% 81%  
253 2% 79%  
254 4% 77%  
255 4% 73%  
256 2% 70%  
257 3% 67%  
258 4% 64%  
259 3% 60%  
260 3% 58%  
261 3% 55%  
262 3% 52% Median
263 3% 49%  
264 2% 46%  
265 3% 44%  
266 4% 40%  
267 3% 36%  
268 2% 33%  
269 3% 31%  
270 2% 28%  
271 2% 26%  
272 2% 24%  
273 2% 23%  
274 2% 20%  
275 3% 18%  
276 2% 15%  
277 3% 14%  
278 2% 11%  
279 1.0% 9%  
280 1.4% 8%  
281 0.8% 7%  
282 1.0% 6%  
283 1.4% 5%  
284 0.9% 4%  
285 0.7% 3%  
286 0.5% 2%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.2% 1.4%  
289 0.3% 1.2%  
290 0.3% 1.0%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0.2% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0.1% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.4% 99.5%  
164 0.5% 99.1%  
165 0.4% 98.6%  
166 0.3% 98%  
167 0.4% 98%  
168 1.1% 98%  
169 2% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 1.0% 93%  
172 1.4% 92%  
173 2% 91%  
174 3% 89%  
175 4% 87%  
176 3% 82%  
177 2% 79%  
178 2% 77%  
179 2% 75%  
180 5% 73%  
181 4% 68%  
182 5% 64%  
183 2% 58%  
184 1.4% 56%  
185 5% 55% Median
186 7% 50%  
187 5% 43%  
188 2% 39%  
189 2% 36%  
190 2% 34%  
191 4% 32%  
192 4% 28%  
193 4% 24%  
194 3% 20%  
195 0.8% 17%  
196 1.0% 16%  
197 3% 15%  
198 4% 12%  
199 2% 9%  
200 1.1% 6%  
201 0.5% 5%  
202 0.4% 5%  
203 0.6% 4%  
204 1.0% 4%  
205 1.0% 3%  
206 0.4% 2%  
207 0.1% 1.2%  
208 0.1% 1.1%  
209 0.2% 1.0%  
210 0.2% 0.8%  
211 0.2% 0.5%  
212 0.1% 0.3%  
213 0% 0.2%  
214 0% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
107 0% 100%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 0.3% 99.3%  
115 0.5% 99.0%  
116 0.7% 98%  
117 0.9% 98%  
118 1.0% 97%  
119 2% 96%  
120 2% 94%  
121 3% 93%  
122 3% 90%  
123 2% 87%  
124 3% 86%  
125 4% 83%  
126 3% 79%  
127 3% 77%  
128 3% 73%  
129 3% 71%  
130 2% 68%  
131 3% 65%  
132 2% 63%  
133 2% 61%  
134 2% 59%  
135 1.1% 57%  
136 1.4% 56%  
137 0.5% 54%  
138 0.7% 54%  
139 0.6% 53%  
140 0.4% 52%  
141 0.3% 52%  
142 0.3% 52%  
143 0.3% 51%  
144 0.1% 51%  
145 0.5% 51%  
146 0.5% 51%  
147 0.4% 50%  
148 0.9% 50%  
149 0.4% 49%  
150 2% 49%  
151 1.3% 46%  
152 1.1% 45%  
153 2% 44%  
154 1.0% 42%  
155 6% 41%  
156 2% 36%  
157 3% 34%  
158 4% 31%  
159 1.4% 27%  
160 4% 26%  
161 0.8% 21% Median
162 3% 21%  
163 1.1% 18%  
164 1.4% 17%  
165 1.3% 15%  
166 1.3% 14%  
167 2% 13%  
168 0.9% 10%  
169 2% 9%  
170 0.7% 8%  
171 2% 7%  
172 1.3% 5%  
173 0.5% 4%  
174 1.4% 3%  
175 0.4% 2%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.2%  
178 0.2% 0.9%  
179 0.3% 0.7%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0.1% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations