Opinion Poll by Kantar, 18–26 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.8–30.7% 27.4–31.2% 27.1–31.5% 26.4–32.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.6% 16.2–19.9% 15.6–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.3% 14.6–17.6% 14.3–17.9% 13.8–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.6–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.0–7.6% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.1% 5.3–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 207–229 204–233 201–237 196–243
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 125–143 123–146 120–149 116–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 111–128 109–131 107–134 103–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–90 73–92 71–94 68–99
Die Linke 69 60 53–67 52–68 50–71 48–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–57 44–59 42–61 39–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–51 38–53 0–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
191 0% 100%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.2% 99.7%  
197 0.1% 99.5%  
198 0.3% 99.3%  
199 0.4% 99.0%  
200 0.5% 98.6% Last Result
201 0.7% 98%  
202 0.8% 97%  
203 0.8% 97%  
204 1.4% 96%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 93%  
207 2% 91%  
208 2% 88%  
209 2% 86%  
210 4% 84%  
211 4% 80%  
212 3% 76%  
213 4% 74%  
214 4% 70%  
215 5% 65%  
216 6% 61%  
217 4% 55%  
218 3% 51% Median
219 6% 47%  
220 4% 42%  
221 5% 38%  
222 4% 33%  
223 3% 30%  
224 5% 27%  
225 4% 22%  
226 2% 18%  
227 2% 16%  
228 3% 14%  
229 2% 11%  
230 2% 9%  
231 1.4% 8%  
232 0.9% 7%  
233 1.1% 6%  
234 1.1% 5%  
235 0.5% 3%  
236 0.5% 3%  
237 0.5% 3%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.6% 2%  
240 0.2% 1.0%  
241 0.1% 0.9%  
242 0.2% 0.8%  
243 0.1% 0.6%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.3% 99.5%  
118 0.3% 99.1%  
119 0.6% 98.8%  
120 0.8% 98%  
121 0.9% 97%  
122 1.5% 96%  
123 2% 95%  
124 2% 93%  
125 3% 91%  
126 3% 89%  
127 3% 85%  
128 4% 83%  
129 4% 79%  
130 6% 74%  
131 4% 68%  
132 6% 65%  
133 5% 58%  
134 4% 53% Median
135 8% 49%  
136 5% 41%  
137 5% 36%  
138 4% 32%  
139 5% 28%  
140 4% 23%  
141 2% 19%  
142 3% 16%  
143 4% 13%  
144 2% 10%  
145 2% 8%  
146 1.4% 6%  
147 1.0% 5%  
148 0.9% 4%  
149 0.6% 3%  
150 0.6% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.5%  
152 0.3% 1.2%  
153 0.3% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.7%  
103 0.2% 99.5%  
104 0.4% 99.3%  
105 0.5% 98.9%  
106 0.8% 98%  
107 0.9% 98%  
108 1.4% 97%  
109 2% 95%  
110 2% 93%  
111 3% 92%  
112 3% 89%  
113 4% 86%  
114 4% 82%  
115 6% 78%  
116 5% 72%  
117 5% 67%  
118 6% 62%  
119 6% 56%  
120 6% 50% Median
121 6% 44%  
122 6% 39%  
123 6% 33%  
124 4% 27%  
125 4% 23%  
126 4% 19%  
127 3% 15%  
128 3% 12%  
129 2% 10%  
130 2% 8%  
131 1.5% 6%  
132 1.1% 4%  
133 0.8% 3%  
134 0.7% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.4% 1.5%  
137 0.3% 1.1%  
138 0.2% 0.8%  
139 0.1% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.4%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0.1% 0.2%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.6%  
69 0.5% 99.4%  
70 0.7% 98.9%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 1.3% 97%  
73 2% 96%  
74 2% 94%  
75 3% 92%  
76 3% 89%  
77 5% 85%  
78 4% 80%  
79 7% 76%  
80 5% 69%  
81 7% 64%  
82 7% 56% Median
83 8% 49%  
84 6% 41%  
85 6% 35%  
86 5% 29%  
87 4% 24%  
88 4% 19%  
89 3% 16%  
90 3% 12%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 7%  
93 1.2% 5%  
94 1.2% 4% Last Result
95 0.9% 2%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.6%  
49 0.7% 99.3%  
50 1.1% 98.6%  
51 2% 97%  
52 3% 96%  
53 3% 93%  
54 3% 90%  
55 4% 87%  
56 8% 83%  
57 8% 75%  
58 5% 67%  
59 7% 62%  
60 10% 56% Median
61 10% 46%  
62 6% 36%  
63 6% 30%  
64 5% 24%  
65 5% 19%  
66 3% 14%  
67 3% 11%  
68 3% 8%  
69 1.3% 5% Last Result
70 0.8% 3%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.4% 99.4%  
41 0.7% 99.0%  
42 1.2% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 7% 92%  
46 7% 85% Last Result
47 6% 78%  
48 5% 72%  
49 6% 66%  
50 7% 60%  
51 6% 54% Median
52 9% 47%  
53 10% 38%  
54 8% 28%  
55 6% 20%  
56 3% 14%  
57 3% 10%  
58 2% 8%  
59 1.3% 6%  
60 1.3% 4%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0.2% 96%  
38 3% 96%  
39 3% 93%  
40 5% 90%  
41 6% 85%  
42 8% 79%  
43 8% 71%  
44 9% 63%  
45 8% 54% Median
46 10% 46%  
47 8% 36%  
48 6% 28%  
49 6% 22%  
50 5% 16%  
51 3% 11%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.3%  
57 0.4% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 522 100% 511–533 508–538 506–553 501–566
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 447 100% 435–458 431–462 427–464 419–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 433 100% 420–444 416–447 412–450 404–455
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 402 100% 391–415 388–420 385–426 379–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 396 99.9% 383–407 379–410 375–413 365–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 388 100% 376–401 373–406 370–412 364–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 35% 339–364 336–368 333–374 328–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 313 0.1% 302–326 299–330 296–334 291–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 301–325 296–329 289–331 277–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 298 0% 285–310 281–313 273–316 260–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 253 0% 242–266 239–269 237–273 231–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 170–190 167–193 165–197 160–202
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 154–174 149–177 131–180 120–185

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.8%  
499 0.1% 99.7%  
500 0.2% 99.7%  
501 0.2% 99.5%  
502 0.2% 99.3%  
503 0.4% 99.1%  
504 0.4% 98.7%  
505 0.6% 98%  
506 0.6% 98%  
507 1.0% 97%  
508 1.1% 96%  
509 1.3% 95%  
510 2% 94%  
511 2% 92%  
512 2% 90%  
513 3% 87%  
514 3% 84%  
515 3% 81%  
516 4% 78%  
517 4% 74%  
518 4% 70%  
519 4% 66%  
520 5% 61%  
521 5% 57%  
522 4% 52%  
523 6% 47% Median
524 5% 42%  
525 3% 37%  
526 5% 34%  
527 4% 29%  
528 3% 25%  
529 3% 21%  
530 3% 18%  
531 2% 15%  
532 2% 13%  
533 2% 11%  
534 2% 10%  
535 0.9% 8%  
536 0.8% 7%  
537 0.7% 6%  
538 0.5% 5%  
539 0.4% 5%  
540 0.4% 5%  
541 0.2% 4%  
542 0.1% 4%  
543 0.1% 4%  
544 0.1% 4%  
545 0.1% 4%  
546 0.1% 3%  
547 0.1% 3%  
548 0.1% 3%  
549 0.2% 3%  
550 0.1% 3%  
551 0.1% 3%  
552 0.3% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0.2% 2%  
555 0.3% 2%  
556 0.1% 2%  
557 0.2% 2%  
558 0.3% 2%  
559 0% 2%  
560 0.2% 1.5%  
561 0.3% 1.3%  
562 0.1% 1.0%  
563 0.1% 0.9%  
564 0.2% 0.8%  
565 0% 0.6%  
566 0.1% 0.5%  
567 0.1% 0.4%  
568 0% 0.3%  
569 0.1% 0.2%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.1% 99.6%  
420 0.1% 99.5%  
421 0.2% 99.4%  
422 0.2% 99.2%  
423 0.2% 99.0%  
424 0.2% 98.8%  
425 0.4% 98.5%  
426 0.3% 98%  
427 0.5% 98%  
428 0.5% 97%  
429 0.4% 97%  
430 0.6% 96%  
431 1.0% 96%  
432 1.3% 95%  
433 0.8% 94%  
434 2% 93%  
435 2% 91%  
436 1.3% 89%  
437 3% 88%  
438 3% 85%  
439 2% 82%  
440 2% 80%  
441 5% 78%  
442 3% 73%  
443 3% 70%  
444 4% 67%  
445 4% 63%  
446 4% 58%  
447 5% 55%  
448 6% 50% Median
449 4% 44%  
450 5% 40%  
451 6% 34%  
452 3% 28%  
453 4% 26%  
454 3% 22%  
455 3% 19%  
456 2% 16%  
457 2% 14%  
458 3% 12%  
459 0.8% 9%  
460 1.5% 8%  
461 2% 7%  
462 1.1% 5%  
463 1.0% 4%  
464 1.0% 3%  
465 0.5% 2%  
466 0.3% 2%  
467 0.4% 1.2%  
468 0.2% 0.8%  
469 0.1% 0.6%  
470 0.1% 0.5%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.2%  
474 0.1% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0% 99.8%  
401 0% 99.8%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.7%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0.2% 99.5%  
406 0.2% 99.3%  
407 0.1% 99.2%  
408 0.3% 99.0%  
409 0.2% 98.8%  
410 0.3% 98.6%  
411 0.2% 98%  
412 0.6% 98%  
413 0.7% 97%  
414 0.7% 97%  
415 0.6% 96%  
416 0.7% 96%  
417 0.9% 95%  
418 1.2% 94%  
419 1.4% 93%  
420 2% 91%  
421 1.5% 89%  
422 2% 88%  
423 2% 86%  
424 2% 84%  
425 4% 82%  
426 5% 78%  
427 3% 73%  
428 5% 70%  
429 4% 65%  
430 3% 62%  
431 4% 58%  
432 4% 55%  
433 5% 50%  
434 4% 45% Median
435 4% 41%  
436 3% 36%  
437 3% 34%  
438 4% 31%  
439 5% 28%  
440 4% 23%  
441 3% 19%  
442 3% 15%  
443 2% 12%  
444 2% 11%  
445 1.4% 9%  
446 1.3% 7%  
447 2% 6%  
448 0.8% 4%  
449 0.9% 4%  
450 0.5% 3%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.4% 2%  
453 0.3% 1.3%  
454 0.3% 1.0%  
455 0.3% 0.8%  
456 0.1% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.4%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.2% 99.6%  
380 0.2% 99.4%  
381 0.2% 99.2%  
382 0.4% 99.0%  
383 0.4% 98.6%  
384 0.7% 98%  
385 0.7% 98%  
386 0.7% 97%  
387 0.9% 96%  
388 1.3% 95%  
389 1.3% 94%  
390 2% 93%  
391 2% 91%  
392 2% 89%  
393 2% 87%  
394 3% 85%  
395 4% 82%  
396 3% 78%  
397 3% 75%  
398 4% 72%  
399 5% 67%  
400 4% 63%  
401 5% 59%  
402 5% 54%  
403 4% 49% Median
404 4% 45%  
405 4% 41%  
406 5% 38%  
407 3% 33%  
408 3% 29%  
409 5% 26%  
410 2% 21%  
411 3% 19%  
412 3% 17%  
413 1.4% 14%  
414 2% 13%  
415 2% 11%  
416 1.0% 9%  
417 1.0% 8%  
418 0.7% 7%  
419 0.7% 6%  
420 0.8% 6%  
421 0.4% 5%  
422 0.5% 4%  
423 0.4% 4%  
424 0.3% 3%  
425 0.3% 3%  
426 0.3% 3%  
427 0.3% 2%  
428 0.2% 2%  
429 0.2% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.2% 2%  
432 0.1% 1.5%  
433 0.2% 1.4%  
434 0.1% 1.2%  
435 0.1% 1.1%  
436 0.1% 1.1%  
437 0.2% 1.0%  
438 0.1% 0.8%  
439 0.2% 0.7%  
440 0.1% 0.5%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0% 99.3%  
367 0.2% 99.3%  
368 0.2% 99.1%  
369 0.2% 98.9%  
370 0.1% 98.7%  
371 0.1% 98.6%  
372 0.2% 98%  
373 0.3% 98%  
374 0.4% 98%  
375 0.4% 98%  
376 0.7% 97%  
377 0.5% 97%  
378 1.0% 96%  
379 1.2% 95%  
380 0.9% 94%  
381 1.0% 93%  
382 1.4% 92%  
383 2% 91%  
384 2% 89%  
385 2% 87%  
386 2% 85%  
387 2% 83%  
388 4% 81%  
389 3% 77%  
390 3% 73%  
391 4% 70%  
392 2% 66%  
393 6% 64%  
394 5% 58%  
395 3% 53%  
396 5% 50% Median
397 4% 46%  
398 5% 41%  
399 3% 36%  
400 4% 33%  
401 4% 29%  
402 4% 25%  
403 3% 22%  
404 3% 19%  
405 2% 16%  
406 2% 14%  
407 2% 12%  
408 2% 9%  
409 1.4% 7%  
410 1.2% 6%  
411 0.8% 5%  
412 1.0% 4%  
413 0.8% 3%  
414 0.4% 2%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.3%  
417 0.3% 1.0%  
418 0.2% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.3% 99.3%  
367 0.4% 99.0%  
368 0.5% 98.7%  
369 0.4% 98%  
370 0.8% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 0.7% 96%  
373 1.2% 96%  
374 1.3% 94%  
375 2% 93%  
376 2% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 2% 87%  
379 2% 85%  
380 4% 82%  
381 3% 79%  
382 4% 75%  
383 3% 71%  
384 5% 68%  
385 3% 63%  
386 4% 60%  
387 4% 56%  
388 4% 52%  
389 4% 48% Median
390 5% 44%  
391 3% 39%  
392 4% 35%  
393 3% 31%  
394 4% 28%  
395 3% 24%  
396 2% 21%  
397 4% 19%  
398 2% 15%  
399 1.5% 13% Last Result
400 2% 12%  
401 1.2% 10%  
402 1.2% 9%  
403 0.9% 8%  
404 1.0% 7%  
405 0.8% 6%  
406 0.5% 5%  
407 0.6% 5%  
408 0.6% 4%  
409 0.4% 4%  
410 0.2% 3%  
411 0.2% 3%  
412 0.4% 3%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.1% 2%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.2% 2%  
418 0.1% 1.5%  
419 0.2% 1.4%  
420 0.2% 1.2%  
421 0.3% 1.0%  
422 0.2% 0.7%  
423 0.1% 0.6%  
424 0% 0.4%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.1% 99.6%  
328 0.2% 99.5%  
329 0.3% 99.3%  
330 0.3% 99.0%  
331 0.4% 98.7%  
332 0.7% 98%  
333 0.7% 98%  
334 0.7% 97%  
335 0.9% 96%  
336 1.3% 95%  
337 1.3% 94%  
338 2% 93%  
339 2% 91%  
340 2% 89% Last Result
341 3% 87%  
342 3% 85%  
343 3% 82%  
344 3% 79%  
345 4% 75%  
346 4% 72%  
347 4% 68%  
348 3% 64%  
349 4% 61%  
350 4% 56%  
351 5% 52% Median
352 6% 48%  
353 4% 42%  
354 3% 39%  
355 6% 35% Majority
356 3% 30%  
357 3% 27%  
358 3% 24%  
359 2% 21%  
360 2% 18%  
361 2% 16%  
362 2% 14%  
363 2% 12%  
364 2% 11%  
365 2% 9%  
366 0.7% 7%  
367 0.8% 6%  
368 0.9% 5%  
369 0.5% 4%  
370 0.3% 4%  
371 0.4% 4%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.4% 3%  
374 0.3% 3%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.4% 2%  
377 0.1% 2%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.2% 1.3%  
380 0.3% 1.1%  
381 0.1% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.7%  
383 0.1% 0.6%  
384 0% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0% 0.4%  
387 0% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.4%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0.1% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.5%  
292 0.3% 99.3%  
293 0.4% 99.0%  
294 0.4% 98.7%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.8% 98%  
297 1.0% 97%  
298 0.8% 96%  
299 1.2% 95%  
300 1.4% 94%  
301 2% 93%  
302 2% 91%  
303 2% 88%  
304 2% 86%  
305 3% 84%  
306 3% 81%  
307 4% 78%  
308 4% 75%  
309 4% 71%  
310 3% 67%  
311 5% 64%  
312 4% 59%  
313 5% 54%  
314 3% 50% Median
315 5% 47%  
316 6% 42%  
317 2% 36%  
318 4% 34%  
319 3% 30%  
320 3% 27%  
321 4% 23%  
322 2% 19%  
323 2% 17%  
324 2% 15%  
325 2% 13%  
326 2% 11%  
327 1.4% 9%  
328 1.0% 8%  
329 0.9% 7%  
330 1.2% 6%  
331 1.0% 5%  
332 0.5% 4%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.1% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.4%  
340 0.2% 1.3%  
341 0.2% 1.1%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.1% 99.5%  
279 0.1% 99.4%  
280 0% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.3%  
282 0.3% 99.1%  
283 0% 98.8%  
284 0.2% 98.8%  
285 0.2% 98.5%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.3% 97%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.5% 97%  
294 0.5% 96%  
295 0.4% 96%  
296 1.0% 95%  
297 0.8% 94%  
298 1.1% 93%  
299 0.8% 92%  
300 1.3% 91%  
301 2% 90%  
302 2% 88%  
303 2% 85%  
304 3% 84%  
305 3% 81%  
306 3% 78%  
307 2% 75%  
308 4% 73%  
309 4% 68%  
310 3% 65%  
311 5% 62%  
312 4% 57%  
313 4% 53%  
314 4% 49% Median
315 5% 45%  
316 5% 40%  
317 3% 35%  
318 3% 31%  
319 5% 28%  
320 3% 23%  
321 2% 21%  
322 3% 18%  
323 3% 16%  
324 1.3% 13%  
325 2% 11%  
326 2% 9% Last Result
327 1.5% 7%  
328 0.7% 6%  
329 1.5% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.2%  
335 0.2% 0.9%  
336 0.1% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.2% 0.4%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
251 0% 100%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.7%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.4%  
263 0.1% 99.4%  
264 0.1% 99.2%  
265 0.2% 99.1%  
266 0.1% 98.9%  
267 0.2% 98.8%  
268 0.3% 98.6%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.2% 98%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.2% 97%  
275 0.3% 97%  
276 0.3% 97%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.3% 96%  
279 0.6% 96%  
280 0.4% 95%  
281 0.8% 95%  
282 0.7% 94%  
283 1.1% 94%  
284 1.1% 92%  
285 2% 91%  
286 1.3% 90%  
287 2% 88%  
288 2% 87%  
289 3% 85%  
290 2% 81%  
291 3% 79%  
292 2% 76%  
293 4% 74%  
294 4% 70%  
295 4% 66%  
296 4% 61%  
297 6% 58%  
298 3% 52%  
299 4% 48% Median
300 4% 44% Last Result
301 5% 40%  
302 3% 35%  
303 5% 33%  
304 3% 28%  
305 4% 25%  
306 3% 21%  
307 3% 19%  
308 3% 16%  
309 3% 13%  
310 1.2% 10%  
311 2% 9%  
312 0.9% 7%  
313 1.4% 6%  
314 1.0% 5%  
315 0.6% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.5% 2%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.3%  
320 0.3% 1.0%  
321 0.2% 0.7%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.1% 99.7%  
231 0.1% 99.6%  
232 0.2% 99.5%  
233 0.4% 99.3%  
234 0.3% 98.9%  
235 0.5% 98.6%  
236 0.5% 98%  
237 0.8% 98%  
238 0.9% 97%  
239 1.5% 96%  
240 1.0% 94%  
241 2% 93%  
242 2% 91%  
243 3% 90%  
244 2% 87%  
245 3% 85%  
246 3% 82%  
247 4% 79%  
248 4% 75%  
249 4% 71%  
250 3% 67%  
251 5% 64%  
252 3% 59%  
253 5% 55%  
254 4% 50% Median
255 5% 46%  
256 4% 41%  
257 4% 38%  
258 4% 34%  
259 4% 30%  
260 4% 26%  
261 3% 22%  
262 3% 19%  
263 2% 16%  
264 3% 14%  
265 2% 12%  
266 1.4% 10%  
267 1.4% 9%  
268 2% 7%  
269 0.9% 6%  
270 0.8% 5%  
271 0.6% 4%  
272 0.7% 3%  
273 0.4% 3%  
274 0.5% 2%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.3% 2%  
277 0.2% 1.2%  
278 0.2% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.9%  
280 0.1% 0.7%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.3%  
285 0.1% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.6%  
160 0.2% 99.5%  
161 0.2% 99.3%  
162 0.5% 99.1%  
163 0.5% 98.6%  
164 0.4% 98%  
165 0.7% 98%  
166 0.7% 97%  
167 2% 96%  
168 1.2% 95%  
169 3% 93%  
170 2% 91%  
171 3% 89%  
172 3% 86%  
173 5% 83%  
174 4% 78%  
175 5% 74%  
176 4% 69%  
177 5% 65%  
178 6% 60%  
179 5% 54%  
180 5% 49% Median
181 5% 45%  
182 5% 40%  
183 3% 35%  
184 6% 31%  
185 4% 26%  
186 3% 22%  
187 2% 18%  
188 3% 16%  
189 2% 13%  
190 2% 10%  
191 2% 8%  
192 1.1% 7%  
193 1.1% 6%  
194 0.7% 5%  
195 0.7% 4%  
196 0.6% 3%  
197 0.6% 3%  
198 0.3% 2%  
199 0.5% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.3%  
201 0.3% 1.0%  
202 0.2% 0.7%  
203 0.1% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.1% 99.6%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0.1% 99.5%  
122 0.2% 99.4%  
123 0.2% 99.2%  
124 0.4% 99.1%  
125 0.3% 98.7%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0.2% 98%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 0.2% 98%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0.1% 97%  
134 0.2% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0.1% 97%  
137 0% 97%  
138 0.1% 97%  
139 0.1% 97%  
140 0.1% 97%  
141 0.1% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 0.1% 96%  
144 0.1% 96%  
145 0.1% 96%  
146 0.2% 96%  
147 0.3% 96%  
148 0.3% 96%  
149 0.4% 95%  
150 0.8% 95%  
151 0.9% 94%  
152 1.2% 93%  
153 1.4% 92%  
154 2% 90%  
155 2% 89%  
156 2% 87%  
157 5% 85%  
158 3% 80%  
159 3% 77%  
160 4% 73%  
161 4% 69%  
162 6% 65%  
163 5% 59%  
164 6% 54%  
165 5% 49% Median
166 5% 44%  
167 4% 38%  
168 5% 34%  
169 5% 29%  
170 3% 24%  
171 3% 21%  
172 4% 18%  
173 3% 14%  
174 2% 11%  
175 1.3% 9%  
176 2% 8%  
177 1.5% 6%  
178 0.9% 4%  
179 0.6% 3%  
180 0.8% 3%  
181 0.5% 2%  
182 0.2% 1.4%  
183 0.4% 1.1%  
184 0.2% 0.8%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.4%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations