Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 28–31 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.8–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 219 208–226 206–230 203–232 198–240
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 131 123–140 120–142 119–145 116–149
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 112–129 110–132 108–133 104–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 80 77–90 75–91 73–93 71–96
Die Linke 69 55 51–62 50–64 48–65 46–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 57 52–63 50–65 49–65 46–68
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 44 40–51 39–52 38–54 0–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.2% 99.8%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.2% 99.4%  
200 0.4% 99.2% Last Result
201 0.4% 98.8%  
202 0.3% 98%  
203 1.2% 98%  
204 0.7% 97%  
205 1.0% 96%  
206 1.2% 95%  
207 1.2% 94%  
208 4% 93%  
209 0.7% 89%  
210 4% 88%  
211 2% 84%  
212 3% 82%  
213 5% 79%  
214 4% 74%  
215 4% 70%  
216 5% 66%  
217 2% 61%  
218 7% 58%  
219 2% 51% Median
220 5% 49%  
221 14% 44%  
222 2% 30%  
223 9% 28%  
224 3% 18%  
225 2% 15%  
226 4% 13%  
227 0.9% 9%  
228 2% 8%  
229 1.1% 6%  
230 1.1% 5%  
231 0.8% 4%  
232 0.8% 3%  
233 0.6% 2%  
234 0.2% 2%  
235 0.3% 2%  
236 0.3% 1.3%  
237 0.2% 1.0%  
238 0.1% 0.8%  
239 0.1% 0.7%  
240 0.3% 0.6%  
241 0.1% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0.1% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0% 99.7%  
116 0.7% 99.7%  
117 0.4% 99.0%  
118 0.2% 98.6%  
119 3% 98%  
120 0.9% 96%  
121 0.4% 95%  
122 4% 95%  
123 1.4% 91%  
124 2% 89%  
125 5% 88%  
126 3% 83%  
127 3% 80%  
128 8% 77%  
129 4% 69%  
130 10% 64%  
131 8% 55% Median
132 3% 47%  
133 14% 44%  
134 3% 30%  
135 2% 27%  
136 3% 25%  
137 7% 21%  
138 0.7% 14%  
139 2% 13%  
140 4% 11%  
141 0.6% 7%  
142 2% 7%  
143 2% 5%  
144 0.3% 3%  
145 1.1% 3%  
146 0.5% 1.5%  
147 0.2% 1.0%  
148 0.2% 0.7%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.4%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.2% 99.9%  
104 0.3% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.7% 99.3%  
107 0.9% 98.6%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 0.6% 97%  
110 1.4% 96%  
111 3% 95%  
112 2% 92%  
113 0.9% 90%  
114 4% 89%  
115 6% 85%  
116 2% 79%  
117 6% 76%  
118 7% 70%  
119 2% 64%  
120 6% 61%  
121 8% 55% Median
122 16% 48%  
123 10% 32%  
124 3% 22%  
125 2% 20%  
126 3% 17%  
127 2% 14%  
128 1.1% 13%  
129 2% 11%  
130 3% 10%  
131 0.4% 7%  
132 2% 6%  
133 2% 4%  
134 0.7% 2%  
135 0.2% 1.1%  
136 0.5% 0.9%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.2%  
141 0.1% 0.1%  
142 0% 0.1%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.1% 99.7%  
70 0.1% 99.6%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 0.9% 99.1%  
73 2% 98%  
74 1.1% 97%  
75 2% 96%  
76 3% 94%  
77 7% 91%  
78 9% 84%  
79 15% 75%  
80 17% 59% Median
81 3% 43%  
82 3% 40%  
83 3% 36%  
84 7% 33%  
85 3% 26%  
86 3% 23%  
87 2% 20%  
88 2% 18%  
89 2% 16%  
90 3% 13%  
91 5% 10%  
92 1.3% 5%  
93 1.5% 3%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 1.2%  
96 0.2% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.3%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 5% 92%  
52 10% 87%  
53 7% 76%  
54 5% 69%  
55 17% 64% Median
56 5% 47%  
57 6% 43%  
58 10% 37%  
59 4% 27%  
60 6% 23%  
61 6% 17%  
62 2% 11%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.5% 2%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.9% 1.3%  
69 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0% 99.8%  
46 0.7% 99.7% Last Result
47 0.8% 99.0%  
48 0.2% 98%  
49 3% 98%  
50 3% 95%  
51 2% 92%  
52 8% 91%  
53 4% 82%  
54 5% 78%  
55 8% 73%  
56 8% 65%  
57 16% 58% Median
58 9% 42%  
59 5% 33%  
60 8% 28%  
61 0.9% 20%  
62 6% 19%  
63 7% 14%  
64 0.2% 6%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 4% 92%  
41 17% 88%  
42 4% 71%  
43 5% 66%  
44 17% 61% Median
45 4% 44%  
46 6% 40%  
47 8% 33%  
48 3% 25%  
49 8% 22%  
50 4% 14%  
51 3% 11%  
52 4% 8%  
53 0.7% 4%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.0%  
56 0.1% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 528 100% 515–535 512–537 509–542 507–565
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 452 100% 440–460 437–463 433–466 426–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 441 100% 429–449 425–451 421–453 415–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 409 100% 394–415 392–419 389–423 384–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 401 100% 391–411 387–415 383–417 373–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 384–406 381–408 377–412 373–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 357 63% 346–368 343–372 340–374 337–388
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 319 0% 308–329 305–332 300–334 287–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 308 0% 298–318 294–322 292–326 288–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 297 0% 287–306 280–308 279–314 265–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 252 0% 241–262 238–265 236–267 232–275
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 176 0% 168–185 165–189 163–191 159–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 157–174 154–177 150–179 126–183

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 99.9%  
504 0% 99.9%  
505 0.2% 99.9%  
506 0.2% 99.7%  
507 0.6% 99.5%  
508 0.2% 98.9%  
509 1.4% 98.8%  
510 1.1% 97%  
511 0.8% 96%  
512 1.0% 95%  
513 1.0% 94%  
514 2% 93%  
515 2% 92%  
516 3% 90%  
517 2% 87%  
518 3% 84%  
519 1.0% 82%  
520 3% 81%  
521 3% 78%  
522 4% 75%  
523 4% 71%  
524 2% 67%  
525 6% 65%  
526 5% 60%  
527 3% 55%  
528 5% 51% Median
529 4% 47%  
530 2% 43%  
531 6% 41%  
532 3% 34%  
533 13% 31%  
534 8% 19%  
535 2% 11%  
536 1.2% 8%  
537 3% 7%  
538 0.3% 4%  
539 0.8% 4%  
540 0.3% 3%  
541 0.3% 3%  
542 0.3% 3%  
543 0.1% 2%  
544 0.1% 2%  
545 0.1% 2%  
546 0% 2%  
547 0% 2%  
548 0% 2%  
549 0.1% 2%  
550 0% 2%  
551 0% 2%  
552 0.1% 2%  
553 0% 2%  
554 0% 2%  
555 0.1% 2%  
556 0% 2%  
557 0.2% 2%  
558 0% 1.4%  
559 0.2% 1.4%  
560 0.1% 1.2%  
561 0.2% 1.1%  
562 0.2% 1.0%  
563 0% 0.8%  
564 0.1% 0.8%  
565 0.3% 0.7%  
566 0.2% 0.4%  
567 0% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.2%  
569 0.1% 0.2%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.8%  
424 0% 99.8%  
425 0.2% 99.8%  
426 0.2% 99.6%  
427 0.1% 99.4%  
428 0% 99.3%  
429 0.4% 99.3%  
430 0.3% 98.9%  
431 0.4% 98.6%  
432 0.4% 98%  
433 0.6% 98%  
434 1.0% 97%  
435 0.5% 96%  
436 0.5% 96%  
437 1.1% 95%  
438 2% 94%  
439 2% 93%  
440 2% 91%  
441 3% 89%  
442 2% 86%  
443 3% 84%  
444 3% 81%  
445 3% 77%  
446 3% 74%  
447 4% 72%  
448 2% 68%  
449 4% 66%  
450 5% 62%  
451 2% 58% Median
452 15% 56%  
453 2% 41%  
454 5% 38%  
455 9% 34%  
456 7% 24%  
457 2% 18%  
458 3% 16%  
459 3% 13%  
460 2% 11%  
461 0.9% 9%  
462 1.4% 8%  
463 2% 6%  
464 0.3% 4%  
465 1.1% 4%  
466 1.0% 3%  
467 0.7% 2%  
468 0.4% 1.2%  
469 0.1% 0.8%  
470 0.3% 0.7%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.9%  
413 0.2% 99.8%  
414 0.1% 99.6%  
415 0.1% 99.5%  
416 0.1% 99.4%  
417 0.2% 99.3%  
418 0.4% 99.1%  
419 0.6% 98.7%  
420 0.1% 98%  
421 0.7% 98%  
422 0.3% 97%  
423 0.5% 97%  
424 0.8% 97%  
425 1.3% 96%  
426 2% 94%  
427 0.5% 93%  
428 2% 92%  
429 3% 91%  
430 2% 88%  
431 0.8% 86%  
432 4% 85%  
433 2% 81%  
434 5% 79%  
435 2% 74%  
436 3% 72%  
437 5% 69%  
438 2% 64%  
439 4% 62%  
440 3% 58%  
441 14% 55% Median
442 3% 40%  
443 3% 38%  
444 7% 35%  
445 0.7% 28%  
446 5% 27%  
447 1.2% 22%  
448 11% 21%  
449 0.7% 10%  
450 2% 9%  
451 2% 7%  
452 1.0% 5%  
453 1.3% 4%  
454 0.3% 2%  
455 0.9% 2%  
456 0.2% 1.2%  
457 0.3% 1.0%  
458 0.2% 0.7%  
459 0.2% 0.5%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0.1% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.7%  
383 0% 99.7%  
384 0.5% 99.7%  
385 0.1% 99.1%  
386 0.1% 99.0%  
387 0.2% 98.9%  
388 0.6% 98.7%  
389 2% 98%  
390 0.8% 96%  
391 0.5% 96%  
392 0.4% 95%  
393 2% 95%  
394 5% 93%  
395 1.0% 88%  
396 1.4% 87%  
397 3% 86%  
398 2% 83%  
399 3% 80%  
400 2% 78%  
401 3% 76%  
402 5% 73%  
403 3% 68%  
404 2% 65%  
405 3% 64%  
406 5% 61%  
407 4% 56% Median
408 0.9% 51%  
409 3% 50%  
410 6% 48%  
411 23% 42%  
412 1.4% 19%  
413 0.8% 18%  
414 6% 17%  
415 2% 11%  
416 1.1% 8%  
417 0.7% 7%  
418 0.8% 6%  
419 1.3% 6%  
420 0.3% 4%  
421 0.2% 4%  
422 0.5% 4%  
423 1.0% 3%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.3% 2%  
428 0% 2%  
429 0.2% 1.5%  
430 0.2% 1.2%  
431 0.1% 1.0%  
432 0% 1.0%  
433 0.1% 0.9%  
434 0.1% 0.8%  
435 0% 0.7%  
436 0% 0.6%  
437 0% 0.6%  
438 0% 0.6%  
439 0.3% 0.6%  
440 0% 0.3%  
441 0% 0.3%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.2% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.7%  
370 0% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0% 99.5%  
374 0% 99.5%  
375 0.3% 99.5%  
376 0% 99.2%  
377 0% 99.1%  
378 0.2% 99.1%  
379 0.2% 98.9%  
380 0.1% 98.7%  
381 0.5% 98.6%  
382 0.3% 98%  
383 0.3% 98%  
384 0.5% 97%  
385 0.4% 97%  
386 1.0% 97%  
387 0.6% 96%  
388 1.1% 95%  
389 1.3% 94%  
390 1.2% 93%  
391 3% 91%  
392 2% 88%  
393 2% 86%  
394 3% 84%  
395 2% 81%  
396 4% 79%  
397 3% 75%  
398 2% 71%  
399 13% 69%  
400 4% 56% Median
401 6% 53%  
402 3% 47%  
403 5% 44%  
404 10% 40%  
405 3% 29%  
406 3% 27%  
407 3% 24%  
408 6% 21%  
409 2% 15%  
410 2% 14%  
411 2% 12%  
412 2% 10%  
413 1.3% 8%  
414 0.6% 6%  
415 1.2% 6%  
416 2% 5%  
417 0.9% 3%  
418 0.1% 2%  
419 0.5% 2%  
420 0.1% 1.0% Last Result
421 0.5% 0.9%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.2% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.2% 99.6%  
374 0.3% 99.4%  
375 0.2% 99.1%  
376 0.4% 98.9%  
377 1.0% 98%  
378 0.5% 97%  
379 0.3% 97%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 3% 96%  
382 0.7% 93%  
383 0.7% 92%  
384 3% 91%  
385 5% 89%  
386 1.0% 84%  
387 2% 83%  
388 6% 81%  
389 4% 75%  
390 2% 71%  
391 0.9% 70%  
392 4% 69%  
393 6% 64%  
394 1.3% 59%  
395 2% 58%  
396 5% 55%  
397 3% 50% Median
398 3% 47%  
399 1.4% 44% Last Result
400 14% 43%  
401 3% 29%  
402 0.3% 26%  
403 5% 26%  
404 11% 21%  
405 0.1% 10%  
406 2% 10%  
407 3% 8%  
408 0.8% 5%  
409 0.3% 4%  
410 0.1% 4%  
411 2% 4%  
412 0.2% 3%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.3% 2%  
415 0.1% 2%  
416 0.1% 2%  
417 0.1% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.4% 1.3%  
420 0% 0.9%  
421 0.1% 0.9%  
422 0% 0.8%  
423 0% 0.8%  
424 0.4% 0.7%  
425 0.2% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0% 99.9%  
332 0% 99.9%  
333 0% 99.9%  
334 0% 99.8%  
335 0.2% 99.8%  
336 0.1% 99.6%  
337 0.6% 99.5%  
338 0.3% 98.9%  
339 0.6% 98.6%  
340 0.9% 98% Last Result
341 1.1% 97%  
342 0.6% 96%  
343 1.3% 95%  
344 1.3% 94%  
345 2% 93%  
346 1.5% 91%  
347 2% 89%  
348 2% 88%  
349 2% 86%  
350 1.2% 84%  
351 5% 83%  
352 4% 78%  
353 4% 74%  
354 7% 70%  
355 3% 63% Majority
356 5% 59% Median
357 4% 54%  
358 13% 50%  
359 2% 36%  
360 12% 35%  
361 2% 23%  
362 3% 22%  
363 0.6% 19%  
364 3% 18%  
365 0.6% 16%  
366 0.8% 15%  
367 4% 14%  
368 1.1% 10%  
369 1.2% 9%  
370 2% 8%  
371 1.1% 6%  
372 0.5% 5%  
373 1.2% 5%  
374 0.9% 3%  
375 1.0% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0% 1.4%  
378 0.2% 1.3%  
379 0% 1.1%  
380 0% 1.1%  
381 0.2% 1.0%  
382 0.1% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.7%  
384 0% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.7%  
386 0% 0.6%  
387 0% 0.6%  
388 0.3% 0.5%  
389 0.1% 0.3%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0.2% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.7%  
285 0% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.6%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.2% 99.3%  
290 0% 99.1%  
291 0% 99.1%  
292 0.2% 99.1%  
293 0.2% 98.9%  
294 0.1% 98.7%  
295 0.1% 98.6%  
296 0.1% 98.5%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.2% 98%  
300 0.2% 98%  
301 0.1% 97%  
302 1.1% 97%  
303 0.5% 96%  
304 0.4% 96%  
305 0.5% 95%  
306 0.9% 95%  
307 1.3% 94%  
308 3% 93%  
309 0.7% 90%  
310 2% 89%  
311 2% 87%  
312 3% 85%  
313 4% 82%  
314 2% 77%  
315 3% 75%  
316 5% 72%  
317 5% 68%  
318 4% 63%  
319 13% 59%  
320 1.1% 47% Median
321 4% 46%  
322 3% 41%  
323 6% 39%  
324 5% 33%  
325 8% 28%  
326 2% 20% Last Result
327 2% 17%  
328 4% 15%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 9%  
331 0.9% 7%  
332 2% 6%  
333 1.2% 4%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.2% 2%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.4%  
338 0.5% 1.0%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.5% 99.6%  
289 0.1% 99.1% Last Result
290 0.5% 99.0%  
291 0.1% 98%  
292 0.9% 98%  
293 2% 97%  
294 1.2% 95%  
295 0.6% 94%  
296 1.3% 94%  
297 2% 92%  
298 2% 90%  
299 2% 88%  
300 2% 86%  
301 6% 85%  
302 3% 79%  
303 3% 76%  
304 3% 73%  
305 10% 71%  
306 5% 60%  
307 3% 56% Median
308 6% 53%  
309 4% 47%  
310 13% 44%  
311 2% 31%  
312 3% 29%  
313 4% 25%  
314 2% 21%  
315 3% 19%  
316 2% 16%  
317 2% 14%  
318 3% 12%  
319 1.2% 9%  
320 1.3% 7%  
321 1.1% 6%  
322 0.6% 5%  
323 1.0% 4%  
324 0.4% 3%  
325 0.5% 3%  
326 0.3% 3%  
327 0.3% 2%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.1% 1.4%  
330 0.2% 1.3%  
331 0.2% 1.1%  
332 0% 0.9%  
333 0% 0.9%  
334 0.3% 0.8%  
335 0% 0.5%  
336 0% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0% 0.3%  
341 0.2% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0.1% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.8%  
258 0% 99.8%  
259 0% 99.8%  
260 0% 99.8%  
261 0% 99.8%  
262 0% 99.8%  
263 0.1% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.6%  
265 0.1% 99.5%  
266 0.1% 99.4%  
267 0.3% 99.3%  
268 0% 99.1%  
269 0% 99.0%  
270 0% 99.0%  
271 0.1% 99.0%  
272 0.1% 98.9%  
273 0.4% 98.8%  
274 0.1% 98%  
275 0% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.1% 98%  
278 0.2% 98%  
279 3% 98%  
280 0.6% 95%  
281 1.2% 95%  
282 0.4% 93%  
283 0.2% 93%  
284 0.1% 93%  
285 0.3% 93%  
286 2% 92%  
287 4% 91%  
288 4% 86%  
289 5% 82%  
290 3% 77%  
291 0.6% 74%  
292 0.2% 73%  
293 0.1% 73%  
294 0.6% 73%  
295 4% 72%  
296 17% 68% Median
297 16% 50%  
298 8% 35%  
299 3% 27%  
300 1.4% 24% Last Result
301 0.1% 22%  
302 0.2% 22%  
303 1.0% 22%  
304 3% 21%  
305 4% 19%  
306 6% 14%  
307 4% 9%  
308 1.1% 5%  
309 0.1% 4%  
310 0% 4%  
311 0.1% 4%  
312 0.2% 4%  
313 0.8% 4%  
314 1.4% 3%  
315 0.8% 1.3%  
316 0.3% 0.5%  
317 0% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.7%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.5% 99.5%  
234 0.8% 99.0%  
235 0.5% 98%  
236 1.1% 98%  
237 0.7% 97%  
238 2% 96%  
239 1.5% 94%  
240 1.5% 93%  
241 3% 91%  
242 0.5% 88%  
243 3% 88%  
244 1.2% 85%  
245 2% 84%  
246 4% 82%  
247 3% 78%  
248 5% 75%  
249 5% 70%  
250 7% 65%  
251 3% 59%  
252 8% 56% Median
253 8% 48%  
254 4% 40%  
255 11% 37%  
256 3% 26%  
257 3% 23%  
258 4% 21%  
259 1.1% 16%  
260 3% 15%  
261 1.2% 12%  
262 2% 11%  
263 0.7% 9%  
264 2% 8%  
265 2% 7%  
266 2% 5%  
267 0.9% 3%  
268 0.1% 2%  
269 0.5% 2%  
270 0.1% 2%  
271 0.2% 2%  
272 0.3% 1.4%  
273 0.4% 1.1%  
274 0.2% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.2% 0.5%  
277 0% 0.3%  
278 0% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.3%  
280 0% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.3%  
282 0% 0.3%  
283 0.2% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0% 99.8%  
158 0.2% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.5%  
160 0.4% 99.4%  
161 0.9% 99.0%  
162 0.5% 98%  
163 1.1% 98%  
164 0.4% 96%  
165 2% 96%  
166 1.4% 94%  
167 2% 93%  
168 2% 91%  
169 4% 89%  
170 2% 85%  
171 2% 83%  
172 4% 81%  
173 5% 77%  
174 3% 72%  
175 14% 69%  
176 6% 54% Median
177 13% 49%  
178 3% 36%  
179 6% 33%  
180 2% 27%  
181 4% 25%  
182 4% 22%  
183 3% 18%  
184 4% 15%  
185 1.3% 11%  
186 2% 10%  
187 0.5% 8%  
188 0.6% 7%  
189 2% 7%  
190 0.3% 5%  
191 2% 4%  
192 0.2% 2%  
193 0.7% 2%  
194 0.5% 1.4%  
195 0.2% 0.9%  
196 0.1% 0.7%  
197 0.3% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.7%  
125 0.1% 99.6%  
126 0.7% 99.6%  
127 0% 98.9%  
128 0% 98.9%  
129 0% 98.9%  
130 0% 98.8%  
131 0% 98.8%  
132 0% 98.8%  
133 0% 98.7%  
134 0.1% 98.7%  
135 0% 98.7%  
136 0.5% 98.7%  
137 0% 98%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0% 98%  
143 0% 98%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0.1% 98%  
146 0.1% 98%  
147 0.1% 98%  
148 0.1% 98%  
149 0.1% 98%  
150 1.3% 98%  
151 0.2% 96%  
152 0.3% 96%  
153 0.5% 96%  
154 3% 95%  
155 1.4% 92%  
156 0.7% 91%  
157 2% 90%  
158 1.3% 88%  
159 8% 87%  
160 3% 80%  
161 5% 76%  
162 1.0% 71%  
163 14% 70%  
164 7% 56%  
165 3% 49% Median
166 2% 47%  
167 13% 44%  
168 5% 31%  
169 3% 26%  
170 4% 23%  
171 2% 19%  
172 2% 17%  
173 2% 15%  
174 5% 13%  
175 0.8% 8%  
176 1.3% 7%  
177 3% 6%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.4% 3%  
180 0.4% 2%  
181 1.1% 2%  
182 0.1% 0.6%  
183 0.2% 0.5%  
184 0% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations