Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 31 August–2 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 27.8–30.8% 27.4–31.2% 27.0–31.6% 26.4–32.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.7–20.3% 17.4–20.7% 17.1–21.0% 16.5–21.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.7–19.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.1% 5.2–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 207–230 203–233 201–236 196–243
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 141 132–151 130–155 127–157 123–163
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 126 117–137 115–139 113–142 109–147
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 68–82 66–85 64–87 61–91
Die Linke 69 52 46–59 45–61 44–63 40–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–57 43–59 41–61 39–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–51 38–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.7%  
196 0.2% 99.6%  
197 0.3% 99.4%  
198 0.4% 99.1%  
199 0.4% 98.8%  
200 0.6% 98% Last Result
201 0.8% 98%  
202 1.0% 97%  
203 1.1% 96%  
204 1.3% 95%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 92%  
207 2% 90%  
208 3% 88%  
209 3% 85%  
210 3% 82%  
211 3% 80%  
212 3% 76%  
213 4% 73%  
214 4% 69%  
215 4% 65%  
216 5% 61%  
217 5% 56%  
218 4% 52% Median
219 3% 47%  
220 4% 44%  
221 5% 40%  
222 4% 35%  
223 4% 31%  
224 3% 27%  
225 3% 24%  
226 3% 22%  
227 3% 18%  
228 3% 15%  
229 2% 13%  
230 1.3% 11%  
231 2% 9%  
232 2% 8%  
233 1.2% 6%  
234 0.9% 5%  
235 1.0% 4%  
236 0.6% 3%  
237 0.5% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.5%  
240 0.2% 1.1%  
241 0.2% 0.9%  
242 0.1% 0.7%  
243 0.2% 0.6%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0% 0.3%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.1% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0.1% 99.7%  
123 0.2% 99.6%  
124 0.3% 99.4%  
125 0.5% 99.0%  
126 0.6% 98.6%  
127 0.8% 98%  
128 1.0% 97%  
129 1.0% 96%  
130 2% 95%  
131 2% 93%  
132 3% 91%  
133 2% 89%  
134 4% 87%  
135 4% 83%  
136 3% 79%  
137 5% 75%  
138 5% 70%  
139 6% 65%  
140 4% 60%  
141 6% 56% Median
142 5% 50%  
143 5% 45%  
144 6% 40%  
145 3% 34%  
146 5% 31%  
147 3% 25%  
148 4% 22%  
149 2% 18%  
150 3% 15%  
151 3% 12%  
152 1.4% 9%  
153 2% 8%  
154 0.8% 6%  
155 1.5% 6%  
156 0.6% 4%  
157 1.0% 3%  
158 0.5% 2%  
159 0.4% 2%  
160 0.3% 2%  
161 0.5% 1.2%  
162 0.2% 0.8%  
163 0.2% 0.6%  
164 0.1% 0.4%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.8%  
108 0.3% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.5%  
110 0.4% 99.4%  
111 0.3% 99.0%  
112 0.6% 98.7%  
113 1.1% 98%  
114 0.6% 97%  
115 2% 96%  
116 0.7% 94%  
117 4% 93%  
118 1.2% 89%  
119 4% 88%  
120 3% 84%  
121 3% 81%  
122 6% 77%  
123 2% 72%  
124 9% 70%  
125 2% 61%  
126 9% 59% Median
127 2% 50%  
128 8% 47%  
129 2% 39%  
130 6% 37%  
131 3% 31%  
132 4% 28%  
133 5% 24%  
134 2% 19%  
135 5% 17%  
136 1.5% 12%  
137 3% 11%  
138 0.9% 7%  
139 2% 7%  
140 0.8% 5%  
141 1.0% 4%  
142 0.7% 3%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.6% 2%  
145 0.3% 1.2%  
146 0.3% 0.9%  
147 0.1% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0.1% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1% Last Result
154 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.5% 99.3%  
63 0.7% 98.8%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 1.5% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 93%  
68 4% 91%  
69 5% 87%  
70 5% 82%  
71 6% 78%  
72 6% 72%  
73 6% 66%  
74 8% 60%  
75 7% 52% Median
76 6% 45%  
77 7% 39%  
78 5% 32%  
79 5% 27%  
80 4% 21%  
81 4% 17%  
82 3% 13%  
83 2% 10%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5%  
86 1.0% 4%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.4% 1.3%  
90 0.4% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.5%  
42 0.4% 99.1%  
43 0.8% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 96%  
46 4% 92%  
47 4% 88%  
48 4% 84%  
49 6% 80%  
50 7% 75%  
51 10% 68%  
52 10% 58% Median
53 9% 48%  
54 7% 39%  
55 4% 32%  
56 5% 28%  
57 6% 23%  
58 6% 17%  
59 4% 11%  
60 2% 7%  
61 1.0% 5%  
62 1.0% 4%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.8% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.6% 99.3%  
41 1.3% 98.7%  
42 1.5% 97%  
43 2% 96%  
44 3% 94%  
45 5% 91%  
46 5% 86% Last Result
47 6% 80%  
48 8% 74%  
49 8% 67%  
50 8% 58%  
51 10% 50% Median
52 8% 41%  
53 7% 33%  
54 6% 26%  
55 5% 20%  
56 4% 15%  
57 3% 11%  
58 3% 8%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.2% 4%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0.4% 97%  
38 3% 96%  
39 3% 93%  
40 5% 91%  
41 7% 86%  
42 7% 79%  
43 10% 72%  
44 8% 63%  
45 11% 55% Median
46 8% 45%  
47 7% 37%  
48 8% 30%  
49 4% 22%  
50 6% 18%  
51 3% 12%  
52 2% 9%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.1% 4%  
55 1.2% 3%  
56 0.6% 1.5%  
57 0.4% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 537 100% 526–547 523–553 520–568 516–580
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 442–467 438–470 435–472 426–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 440 100% 428–451 424–455 420–457 411–463
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 410 100% 397–422 394–428 391–434 386–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 395 100% 383–408 380–413 377–419 371–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 388 99.7% 375–400 370–404 366–406 357–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 14% 331–357 328–361 325–365 319–376
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 321 0.3% 309–334 305–339 303–343 297–352
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 313 0% 300–325 295–328 290–332 277–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 300–325 296–329 289–332 277–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 268 0% 257–281 254–285 251–289 245–296
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 169–191 166–194 164–197 159–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 160–182 156–185 140–188 127–193

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.9%  
513 0.1% 99.8%  
514 0.1% 99.8%  
515 0.1% 99.6%  
516 0.2% 99.5%  
517 0.3% 99.3%  
518 0.3% 99.0%  
519 0.5% 98.6%  
520 0.6% 98%  
521 0.8% 97%  
522 0.9% 97%  
523 1.3% 96%  
524 1.1% 95%  
525 2% 93%  
526 2% 91%  
527 2% 89%  
528 3% 87%  
529 4% 84%  
530 3% 81%  
531 5% 78%  
532 3% 74%  
533 6% 71%  
534 4% 65%  
535 4% 61%  
536 4% 57% Median
537 7% 53%  
538 4% 45%  
539 6% 41%  
540 3% 35%  
541 6% 32%  
542 3% 27%  
543 3% 23%  
544 2% 20%  
545 3% 18%  
546 3% 15%  
547 2% 12%  
548 0.9% 10%  
549 1.0% 9%  
550 1.2% 8%  
551 1.0% 7%  
552 0.4% 6%  
553 0.7% 5%  
554 0.4% 5%  
555 0.3% 4%  
556 0.2% 4%  
557 0.2% 4%  
558 0.1% 4%  
559 0.1% 3%  
560 0.1% 3%  
561 0% 3%  
562 0.1% 3%  
563 0.1% 3%  
564 0.2% 3%  
565 0.1% 3%  
566 0.2% 3%  
567 0.1% 3%  
568 0.1% 3%  
569 0.1% 2%  
570 0.1% 2%  
571 0.1% 2%  
572 0.4% 2%  
573 0.2% 2%  
574 0.1% 2%  
575 0.2% 1.4%  
576 0.1% 1.3%  
577 0.1% 1.2%  
578 0.1% 1.1%  
579 0.1% 0.9%  
580 0.3% 0.8%  
581 0.1% 0.5%  
582 0.1% 0.4%  
583 0.1% 0.3%  
584 0% 0.3%  
585 0.1% 0.2%  
586 0% 0.2%  
587 0.1% 0.1%  
588 0% 0.1%  
589 0% 0.1%  
590 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.8%  
423 0% 99.8%  
424 0% 99.7%  
425 0.1% 99.7%  
426 0.1% 99.6%  
427 0.1% 99.4%  
428 0.1% 99.4%  
429 0.1% 99.2%  
430 0.2% 99.1%  
431 0.2% 99.0%  
432 0.3% 98.7%  
433 0.3% 98%  
434 0.5% 98%  
435 0.5% 98%  
436 0.5% 97%  
437 0.8% 97%  
438 0.9% 96%  
439 0.9% 95%  
440 2% 94%  
441 2% 92%  
442 2% 91%  
443 2% 89%  
444 2% 87%  
445 3% 85%  
446 2% 82%  
447 3% 80%  
448 3% 77%  
449 4% 74%  
450 5% 71%  
451 3% 66%  
452 3% 63%  
453 4% 60%  
454 3% 56%  
455 5% 52% Median
456 4% 47%  
457 4% 44%  
458 5% 39%  
459 4% 35%  
460 3% 30%  
461 3% 27%  
462 3% 24%  
463 3% 20%  
464 3% 17%  
465 2% 14%  
466 2% 12%  
467 2% 10%  
468 1.4% 8%  
469 2% 7%  
470 1.0% 5%  
471 1.0% 4%  
472 0.6% 3%  
473 0.7% 2%  
474 0.4% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.2%  
476 0.2% 0.9%  
477 0.2% 0.7%  
478 0.1% 0.5%  
479 0.1% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0% 99.7%  
411 0.3% 99.6%  
412 0.1% 99.3%  
413 0.1% 99.2%  
414 0.2% 99.1%  
415 0.2% 99.0%  
416 0.2% 98.8%  
417 0.3% 98.6%  
418 0.3% 98%  
419 0.3% 98%  
420 0.5% 98%  
421 0.7% 97%  
422 0.7% 96%  
423 0.7% 96%  
424 0.9% 95%  
425 0.9% 94%  
426 1.2% 93%  
427 2% 92%  
428 2% 91%  
429 2% 88%  
430 2% 86%  
431 3% 84%  
432 2% 82%  
433 2% 80%  
434 6% 77%  
435 2% 72%  
436 5% 69%  
437 5% 64%  
438 3% 60%  
439 3% 57%  
440 6% 54% Median
441 3% 48%  
442 5% 45%  
443 5% 39%  
444 3% 34%  
445 4% 32%  
446 3% 27%  
447 3% 24%  
448 4% 22%  
449 3% 17%  
450 2% 14%  
451 3% 13%  
452 1.0% 10%  
453 1.3% 9%  
454 2% 7%  
455 1.0% 6%  
456 1.1% 5%  
457 1.1% 4%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.5% 2%  
460 0.3% 2%  
461 0.2% 1.2%  
462 0.3% 1.0%  
463 0.2% 0.6%  
464 0.1% 0.4%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.2% 99.7%  
386 0.2% 99.5%  
387 0.3% 99.4%  
388 0.3% 99.1%  
389 0.3% 98.8%  
390 0.6% 98.5%  
391 0.7% 98%  
392 0.7% 97%  
393 1.2% 97%  
394 0.5% 95%  
395 1.0% 95%  
396 2% 94%  
397 2% 92%  
398 2% 90%  
399 3% 88%  
400 1.3% 85%  
401 2% 84%  
402 3% 82%  
403 2% 78%  
404 4% 76%  
405 6% 72%  
406 2% 66%  
407 4% 63%  
408 4% 59%  
409 3% 56%  
410 4% 53% Median
411 4% 49%  
412 3% 46%  
413 7% 43%  
414 4% 36%  
415 4% 32%  
416 4% 28%  
417 2% 24%  
418 2% 22%  
419 3% 20%  
420 2% 17%  
421 2% 15%  
422 3% 13%  
423 2% 10%  
424 0.4% 8%  
425 0.9% 8%  
426 0.7% 7%  
427 1.1% 6%  
428 0.8% 5%  
429 0.3% 4%  
430 0.5% 4%  
431 0.4% 4%  
432 0.4% 3%  
433 0.3% 3%  
434 0.3% 3%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.1% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.3% 2%  
440 0.1% 1.5%  
441 0.1% 1.3%  
442 0.3% 1.3%  
443 0.1% 1.0%  
444 0.1% 1.0%  
445 0.1% 0.8%  
446 0.1% 0.7%  
447 0.1% 0.6%  
448 0.1% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0% 0.3%  
451 0% 0.3%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.6%  
372 0.2% 99.5%  
373 0.3% 99.3%  
374 0.4% 99.0%  
375 0.4% 98.6%  
376 0.5% 98%  
377 0.5% 98%  
378 0.7% 97%  
379 0.9% 96%  
380 1.0% 96%  
381 2% 95%  
382 1.3% 93%  
383 2% 92%  
384 2% 89%  
385 2% 87%  
386 3% 85%  
387 2% 82%  
388 3% 80%  
389 2% 77%  
390 4% 75%  
391 5% 71%  
392 4% 66%  
393 5% 62%  
394 4% 56%  
395 3% 52% Median
396 4% 49%  
397 3% 45%  
398 4% 42%  
399 3% 37% Last Result
400 5% 34%  
401 3% 30%  
402 4% 27%  
403 3% 23%  
404 3% 20%  
405 2% 17%  
406 2% 15%  
407 1.4% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 1.2% 10%  
410 1.0% 9%  
411 2% 8%  
412 0.7% 6%  
413 0.7% 5%  
414 0.6% 5%  
415 0.4% 4%  
416 0.3% 4%  
417 0.4% 3%  
418 0.3% 3%  
419 0.3% 3%  
420 0.2% 2%  
421 0.3% 2%  
422 0.1% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.1% 1.5%  
425 0.1% 1.3%  
426 0.1% 1.2%  
427 0.2% 1.1%  
428 0.1% 0.9%  
429 0.1% 0.8%  
430 0.1% 0.7%  
431 0.1% 0.6%  
432 0.1% 0.5%  
433 0% 0.5%  
434 0.1% 0.4%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.3%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0.1% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0% 99.8%  
354 0% 99.7%  
355 0% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.2% 99.6%  
358 0.2% 99.4%  
359 0.1% 99.2%  
360 0.2% 99.1%  
361 0.2% 98.9%  
362 0.3% 98.7%  
363 0.2% 98%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.3% 98%  
366 0.4% 98%  
367 0.4% 97%  
368 0.4% 97%  
369 0.9% 96%  
370 0.6% 96%  
371 0.8% 95%  
372 0.7% 94%  
373 1.0% 93%  
374 1.1% 93%  
375 2% 91%  
376 2% 90%  
377 3% 88%  
378 2% 85%  
379 2% 83%  
380 3% 81%  
381 2% 78%  
382 4% 76%  
383 5% 72%  
384 4% 67%  
385 4% 63%  
386 3% 60%  
387 3% 57%  
388 4% 54%  
389 5% 50% Median
390 5% 45%  
391 5% 40%  
392 3% 35%  
393 3% 32%  
394 3% 29%  
395 3% 26%  
396 3% 23%  
397 3% 19%  
398 3% 16%  
399 3% 13%  
400 2% 11%  
401 1.2% 9%  
402 1.2% 8%  
403 1.5% 7%  
404 1.1% 5%  
405 1.1% 4%  
406 0.8% 3%  
407 0.3% 2%  
408 0.3% 2%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.3% 1.2%  
411 0.2% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.6%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.2% 99.6%  
320 0.2% 99.4%  
321 0.3% 99.2%  
322 0.4% 99.0%  
323 0.3% 98.6%  
324 0.7% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.6% 97%  
327 1.0% 96%  
328 0.8% 95%  
329 1.4% 95%  
330 2% 93%  
331 3% 91%  
332 1.5% 89%  
333 3% 87%  
334 2% 84%  
335 3% 82%  
336 3% 79%  
337 2% 76%  
338 4% 74%  
339 3% 70%  
340 5% 66% Last Result
341 5% 61%  
342 4% 57%  
343 3% 53%  
344 4% 50% Median
345 3% 46%  
346 5% 43%  
347 4% 38%  
348 4% 34%  
349 3% 30%  
350 3% 27%  
351 2% 24%  
352 4% 21%  
353 2% 17%  
354 2% 16%  
355 2% 14% Majority
356 1.4% 12%  
357 2% 10%  
358 1.1% 9%  
359 1.2% 7%  
360 0.8% 6%  
361 0.8% 5%  
362 0.8% 5%  
363 0.6% 4%  
364 0.5% 3%  
365 0.5% 3%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.3% 2%  
368 0.1% 2%  
369 0.2% 2%  
370 0.2% 1.4%  
371 0.2% 1.2%  
372 0.1% 1.0%  
373 0.1% 0.9%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.1% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.6%  
377 0% 0.5%  
378 0.1% 0.5%  
379 0.1% 0.4%  
380 0% 0.3%  
381 0.1% 0.2%  
382 0% 0.2%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.2% 99.4%  
299 0.3% 99.1%  
300 0.4% 98.8%  
301 0.3% 98%  
302 0.3% 98%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 1.1% 97%  
305 1.1% 96%  
306 1.5% 95%  
307 1.2% 93%  
308 1.2% 92%  
309 2% 91%  
310 3% 89%  
311 3% 87%  
312 3% 84%  
313 3% 81%  
314 3% 77%  
315 3% 74%  
316 3% 71%  
317 3% 68%  
318 5% 65%  
319 5% 60% Median
320 5% 55%  
321 4% 50%  
322 3% 46%  
323 3% 43%  
324 4% 40%  
325 4% 37%  
326 5% 33%  
327 4% 28%  
328 2% 24%  
329 3% 22%  
330 2% 19%  
331 2% 17%  
332 3% 15%  
333 2% 12%  
334 2% 10%  
335 1.1% 9%  
336 1.0% 7%  
337 0.7% 7%  
338 0.8% 6%  
339 0.6% 5%  
340 0.9% 4%  
341 0.4% 4%  
342 0.4% 3%  
343 0.4% 3%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.3%  
349 0.2% 1.1%  
350 0.1% 0.9%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.2% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.4%  
354 0% 0.3%  
355 0% 0.3% Majority
356 0% 0.3%  
357 0% 0.2%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.1% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 99.0%  
283 0.1% 98.9%  
284 0.1% 98.8%  
285 0.1% 98.7%  
286 0.2% 98.6%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.4% 97%  
292 0.4% 97%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.8% 96%  
295 0.7% 95%  
296 0.9% 95%  
297 0.5% 94%  
298 1.5% 93%  
299 1.1% 92%  
300 1.5% 91% Last Result
301 1.5% 89%  
302 2% 88%  
303 2% 85%  
304 2% 83%  
305 3% 81%  
306 3% 78%  
307 3% 75%  
308 3% 72%  
309 5% 69%  
310 3% 64%  
311 3% 60%  
312 4% 57% Median
313 5% 53%  
314 3% 48%  
315 5% 45%  
316 3% 40%  
317 4% 36%  
318 4% 33%  
319 4% 29%  
320 3% 25%  
321 4% 22%  
322 2% 18%  
323 3% 16%  
324 2% 14%  
325 2% 12%  
326 2% 10%  
327 1.4% 8%  
328 1.4% 6%  
329 0.8% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.2% 1.1%  
336 0.2% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
267 0% 100%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0.1% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.2% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.2%  
281 0.1% 99.0%  
282 0% 98.9%  
283 0.4% 98.9%  
284 0.1% 98.5%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.5% 97%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 0.4% 97%  
293 0.4% 96%  
294 0.5% 96%  
295 0.5% 95%  
296 1.0% 95%  
297 0.7% 94%  
298 1.2% 93%  
299 1.2% 92%  
300 1.4% 91%  
301 2% 89%  
302 2% 88%  
303 3% 86%  
304 2% 83%  
305 3% 81%  
306 3% 79%  
307 4% 76%  
308 4% 72%  
309 3% 68%  
310 4% 65%  
311 4% 61%  
312 4% 57%  
313 4% 53%  
314 4% 49% Median
315 4% 45%  
316 4% 41%  
317 4% 37%  
318 3% 33%  
319 4% 30%  
320 3% 26%  
321 2% 22%  
322 4% 20%  
323 2% 16%  
324 2% 14%  
325 2% 12%  
326 2% 10% Last Result
327 1.4% 8%  
328 1.0% 6%  
329 1.0% 5%  
330 1.0% 4%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.7% 3%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.4% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.2%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.7%  
245 0.1% 99.6%  
246 0.2% 99.5%  
247 0.3% 99.3%  
248 0.3% 98.9%  
249 0.4% 98.7%  
250 0.6% 98%  
251 0.7% 98%  
252 0.8% 97%  
253 1.0% 96%  
254 1.2% 95%  
255 2% 94%  
256 2% 92%  
257 3% 90%  
258 2% 88%  
259 3% 86%  
260 3% 83%  
261 3% 80%  
262 3% 77%  
263 3% 74%  
264 4% 71%  
265 5% 67%  
266 4% 62%  
267 5% 59% Median
268 5% 54%  
269 4% 49%  
270 4% 45%  
271 4% 41%  
272 5% 37%  
273 3% 33%  
274 3% 29%  
275 3% 26%  
276 3% 23%  
277 3% 20%  
278 2% 17%  
279 2% 14%  
280 2% 13%  
281 2% 11%  
282 1.2% 9%  
283 1.3% 8%  
284 0.8% 6%  
285 0.9% 6%  
286 0.8% 5%  
287 0.6% 4%  
288 0.6% 3%  
289 0.5% 3%  
290 0.4% 2%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.2% 2%  
293 0.2% 1.3%  
294 0.4% 1.1%  
295 0.1% 0.8%  
296 0.2% 0.6%  
297 0.1% 0.4%  
298 0.1% 0.4%  
299 0% 0.3%  
300 0.1% 0.3%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0.1%  
309 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.2% 99.7%  
159 0.2% 99.6%  
160 0.3% 99.4%  
161 0.4% 99.1%  
162 0.4% 98.7%  
163 0.8% 98%  
164 0.7% 98%  
165 1.1% 97%  
166 2% 96%  
167 1.5% 94%  
168 2% 93%  
169 2% 91%  
170 2% 88%  
171 4% 86%  
172 2% 83%  
173 5% 80%  
174 3% 75%  
175 4% 72%  
176 5% 68%  
177 3% 62%  
178 6% 59% Median
179 4% 53%  
180 4% 49%  
181 5% 45%  
182 3% 40%  
183 5% 37%  
184 4% 31%  
185 3% 28%  
186 3% 24%  
187 3% 21%  
188 3% 18%  
189 3% 15%  
190 2% 13%  
191 2% 11%  
192 1.5% 8%  
193 1.2% 7%  
194 1.1% 6%  
195 0.7% 4%  
196 0.9% 4%  
197 0.8% 3%  
198 0.5% 2%  
199 0.3% 2%  
200 0.3% 1.4%  
201 0.3% 1.0%  
202 0.2% 0.8%  
203 0.1% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.1% 99.6%  
128 0.1% 99.5%  
129 0% 99.4%  
130 0.1% 99.4%  
131 0.4% 99.3%  
132 0.1% 98.9%  
133 0.4% 98.8%  
134 0.1% 98%  
135 0.1% 98%  
136 0% 98%  
137 0.2% 98%  
138 0.4% 98%  
139 0.1% 98%  
140 0.1% 98%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0.1% 97%  
143 0% 97%  
144 0.2% 97%  
145 0.2% 97%  
146 0% 97%  
147 0.1% 97%  
148 0% 97%  
149 0.1% 97%  
150 0.1% 97%  
151 0.2% 97%  
152 0.2% 96%  
153 0.2% 96%  
154 0.3% 96%  
155 0.5% 96%  
156 0.6% 95%  
157 0.7% 95%  
158 1.1% 94%  
159 1.1% 93%  
160 2% 92%  
161 2% 90%  
162 2% 88%  
163 2% 86%  
164 3% 84%  
165 3% 81%  
166 4% 77%  
167 4% 73%  
168 4% 69%  
169 4% 65%  
170 6% 61%  
171 5% 55% Median
172 5% 51%  
173 4% 46%  
174 4% 42%  
175 4% 38%  
176 5% 33%  
177 4% 28%  
178 4% 24%  
179 3% 21%  
180 3% 18%  
181 3% 15%  
182 2% 12%  
183 2% 10%  
184 1.5% 8%  
185 2% 7%  
186 1.0% 5%  
187 0.8% 4%  
188 0.8% 3%  
189 0.7% 2%  
190 0.4% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.2%  
192 0.2% 0.8%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations