Opinion Poll by Kantar, 27 August–2 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.7–30.8% 27.3–31.2% 26.9–31.6% 26.2–32.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.7–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.5–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.4–18.7% 15.2–19.0% 14.6–19.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.7–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.0–13.3%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–8.0% 5.6–8.2% 5.2–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 206–230 203–234 201–237 196–245
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 124–144 122–147 120–150 115–156
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 118–137 115–140 113–142 109–147
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–90 72–93 71–95 67–99
Die Linke 69 53 46–59 44–61 43–63 40–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–58 43–59 42–61 39–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.1% 99.7%  
196 0.2% 99.5%  
197 0.3% 99.3%  
198 0.3% 99.0%  
199 0.6% 98.7%  
200 0.6% 98% Last Result
201 0.6% 98%  
202 0.9% 97%  
203 1.1% 96%  
204 1.3% 95%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 92%  
207 2% 90%  
208 2% 88%  
209 3% 86%  
210 4% 83%  
211 3% 79%  
212 3% 76%  
213 4% 72%  
214 5% 68%  
215 3% 63%  
216 5% 60%  
217 4% 55%  
218 4% 51% Median
219 5% 47%  
220 4% 42%  
221 4% 38%  
222 5% 34%  
223 3% 29%  
224 4% 26%  
225 3% 22%  
226 3% 20%  
227 2% 16%  
228 2% 14%  
229 1.5% 13%  
230 2% 11%  
231 2% 9%  
232 1.4% 8%  
233 0.6% 6%  
234 0.7% 6%  
235 0.8% 5%  
236 1.0% 4%  
237 0.6% 3%  
238 0.5% 2%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.2% 2%  
241 0.1% 1.3%  
242 0.3% 1.2%  
243 0.2% 0.9%  
244 0.2% 0.7%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.3%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.2% 99.5%  
117 0.3% 99.3%  
118 0.6% 98.9%  
119 0.8% 98%  
120 0.7% 98%  
121 0.9% 97%  
122 1.1% 96%  
123 2% 95%  
124 3% 92%  
125 2% 90%  
126 2% 88%  
127 4% 85%  
128 4% 81%  
129 7% 77%  
130 4% 70%  
131 3% 67%  
132 5% 63%  
133 7% 59%  
134 7% 51% Median
135 4% 44%  
136 3% 40%  
137 6% 37%  
138 5% 31%  
139 3% 26%  
140 2% 22%  
141 3% 20%  
142 3% 17%  
143 2% 14%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 2% 7%  
147 1.2% 6%  
148 1.2% 5%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.6% 3%  
151 0.4% 2%  
152 0.7% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.2%  
154 0.1% 0.8%  
155 0.1% 0.7%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.2% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.3% 99.5%  
110 0.4% 99.3%  
111 0.4% 98.9%  
112 0.7% 98%  
113 1.0% 98%  
114 0.9% 97%  
115 1.3% 96%  
116 2% 95%  
117 2% 93%  
118 2% 90%  
119 4% 88%  
120 3% 85%  
121 4% 82%  
122 4% 78%  
123 5% 74%  
124 4% 69%  
125 6% 65%  
126 5% 59%  
127 5% 53% Median
128 5% 48%  
129 6% 43%  
130 5% 37%  
131 4% 32%  
132 5% 29%  
133 3% 24%  
134 4% 20%  
135 2% 16%  
136 3% 14%  
137 2% 11%  
138 3% 9%  
139 1.2% 6%  
140 1.0% 5%  
141 0.9% 4%  
142 0.9% 3%  
143 0.4% 2%  
144 0.3% 2%  
145 0.3% 1.4%  
146 0.3% 1.1%  
147 0.2% 0.7%  
148 0.1% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1% Last Result
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.6%  
68 0.3% 99.4%  
69 0.6% 99.1%  
70 0.9% 98.5%  
71 1.2% 98%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 93%  
75 3% 90%  
76 5% 87%  
77 5% 82%  
78 5% 78%  
79 6% 73%  
80 7% 67%  
81 6% 61%  
82 8% 55% Median
83 6% 47%  
84 5% 40%  
85 5% 35%  
86 5% 30%  
87 6% 26%  
88 4% 20%  
89 3% 16%  
90 3% 13%  
91 2% 9%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.1% 4% Last Result
95 0.6% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.0%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 0.5% 99.5%  
42 0.7% 98.9%  
43 2% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 3% 95%  
46 3% 92%  
47 5% 89%  
48 5% 84%  
49 5% 79%  
50 7% 74%  
51 8% 66%  
52 8% 59%  
53 9% 50% Median
54 7% 41%  
55 7% 34%  
56 5% 27%  
57 6% 22%  
58 4% 16%  
59 3% 12%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.3% 4%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.4%  
41 0.9% 98.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 3% 93%  
45 6% 91%  
46 3% 85% Last Result
47 7% 82%  
48 6% 74%  
49 7% 68%  
50 7% 61%  
51 10% 54% Median
52 5% 43%  
53 10% 39%  
54 5% 29%  
55 7% 24%  
56 4% 18%  
57 4% 14%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.4%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0.5% 96%  
38 2% 96%  
39 4% 93%  
40 5% 89%  
41 5% 84%  
42 9% 79%  
43 8% 70%  
44 8% 62%  
45 8% 54% Median
46 7% 46%  
47 9% 39%  
48 6% 30%  
49 6% 24%  
50 5% 18%  
51 4% 13%  
52 3% 9%  
53 2% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.4% 1.1%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 530 100% 518–541 516–547 513–562 507–574
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 447 100% 434–459 431–463 426–466 419–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 440 100% 428–453 424–456 419–459 409–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 402 100% 390–416 387–421 384–427 378–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 383–410 380–414 377–422 371–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 395 99.9% 382–408 378–411 374–415 363–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 36% 338–365 335–370 332–375 326–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 314 0.1% 301–327 298–331 294–335 289–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 300–325 295–329 289–333 275–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 306 0% 292–318 287–322 280–325 269–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 261 0% 249–274 246–278 243–282 237–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 180 0% 169–191 165–194 163–197 158–204
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 173 0% 161–183 154–186 138–188 127–195

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0% 99.9%  
504 0% 99.9%  
505 0.1% 99.8%  
506 0.1% 99.7%  
507 0.2% 99.7%  
508 0.2% 99.5%  
509 0.2% 99.3%  
510 0.3% 99.1%  
511 0.5% 98.8%  
512 0.6% 98%  
513 0.6% 98%  
514 0.7% 97%  
515 1.3% 96%  
516 1.4% 95%  
517 2% 94%  
518 2% 92%  
519 3% 90%  
520 2% 87%  
521 3% 85%  
522 2% 82%  
523 3% 79%  
524 4% 76%  
525 3% 72%  
526 5% 69%  
527 5% 65%  
528 4% 59%  
529 5% 55%  
530 5% 50% Median
531 6% 45%  
532 4% 39%  
533 4% 35%  
534 3% 31%  
535 5% 28%  
536 3% 23%  
537 2% 20%  
538 3% 18%  
539 2% 15%  
540 2% 13%  
541 2% 11%  
542 1.0% 9%  
543 1.2% 8%  
544 0.8% 7%  
545 0.5% 6%  
546 0.6% 6%  
547 0.4% 5%  
548 0.3% 5%  
549 0.4% 5%  
550 0.1% 4%  
551 0.2% 4%  
552 0.1% 4%  
553 0.1% 4%  
554 0.1% 4%  
555 0.2% 4%  
556 0.1% 3%  
557 0.1% 3%  
558 0.1% 3%  
559 0.1% 3%  
560 0.1% 3%  
561 0.1% 3%  
562 0.5% 3%  
563 0.3% 2%  
564 0.3% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 0.1% 2%  
567 0.1% 2%  
568 0.2% 2%  
569 0.2% 1.4%  
570 0.2% 1.2%  
571 0.1% 1.0%  
572 0.2% 0.9%  
573 0.2% 0.7%  
574 0.1% 0.5%  
575 0% 0.4%  
576 0% 0.4%  
577 0.1% 0.3%  
578 0.1% 0.3%  
579 0% 0.2%  
580 0.1% 0.2%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0% 99.7%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0% 99.6%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.1% 99.4%  
421 0.2% 99.3%  
422 0.1% 99.0%  
423 0.2% 98.9%  
424 0.3% 98.7%  
425 0.2% 98%  
426 0.7% 98%  
427 0.6% 97%  
428 0.4% 97%  
429 0.6% 96%  
430 0.6% 96%  
431 1.2% 95%  
432 1.1% 94%  
433 1.4% 93%  
434 2% 92%  
435 1.3% 90%  
436 2% 89%  
437 3% 86%  
438 3% 83%  
439 3% 81%  
440 3% 78%  
441 2% 75%  
442 5% 73%  
443 4% 68%  
444 5% 64%  
445 3% 60%  
446 4% 57%  
447 6% 53%  
448 4% 47% Median
449 4% 44%  
450 3% 39%  
451 4% 36%  
452 4% 32%  
453 4% 28%  
454 3% 24%  
455 2% 22%  
456 3% 20%  
457 2% 16%  
458 2% 14%  
459 2% 11%  
460 2% 10%  
461 2% 8%  
462 0.9% 6%  
463 1.1% 5%  
464 0.6% 4%  
465 0.6% 3%  
466 0.8% 3%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.4%  
469 0.2% 1.1%  
470 0.2% 0.9%  
471 0.2% 0.6%  
472 0.1% 0.5%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0% 99.7%  
408 0% 99.6%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.1% 99.5%  
411 0.1% 99.4%  
412 0.1% 99.4%  
413 0.1% 99.3%  
414 0.2% 99.2%  
415 0.2% 98.9%  
416 0.3% 98.8%  
417 0.3% 98%  
418 0.3% 98%  
419 0.5% 98%  
420 0.3% 97%  
421 0.5% 97%  
422 0.9% 97%  
423 0.7% 96%  
424 0.8% 95%  
425 1.1% 94%  
426 1.1% 93%  
427 0.8% 92%  
428 1.5% 91%  
429 2% 90%  
430 2% 88%  
431 2% 85%  
432 3% 83%  
433 4% 81%  
434 3% 77%  
435 4% 74%  
436 3% 70%  
437 6% 66%  
438 5% 61%  
439 6% 56%  
440 3% 50%  
441 5% 47% Median
442 5% 42%  
443 4% 38%  
444 2% 34%  
445 3% 32%  
446 4% 28%  
447 3% 24%  
448 3% 21%  
449 2% 19%  
450 2% 16%  
451 2% 15%  
452 2% 13%  
453 2% 11%  
454 1.5% 9%  
455 2% 7%  
456 1.2% 6%  
457 1.0% 5%  
458 0.8% 4%  
459 0.7% 3%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.4% 2%  
462 0.3% 1.1%  
463 0.2% 0.8%  
464 0.2% 0.6%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.3% 99.6%  
379 0.2% 99.3%  
380 0.2% 99.1%  
381 0.2% 98.9%  
382 0.3% 98.7%  
383 0.7% 98%  
384 0.6% 98%  
385 1.2% 97%  
386 0.6% 96%  
387 0.5% 95%  
388 0.8% 95%  
389 2% 94%  
390 2% 92%  
391 2% 89%  
392 2% 88%  
393 3% 86%  
394 3% 83%  
395 5% 80%  
396 2% 75%  
397 2% 73%  
398 2% 70%  
399 6% 68%  
400 5% 62%  
401 6% 57%  
402 4% 51%  
403 1.5% 47% Median
404 3% 46%  
405 4% 42%  
406 5% 38%  
407 4% 34%  
408 3% 30%  
409 2% 27%  
410 2% 25%  
411 4% 23%  
412 3% 18%  
413 2% 16%  
414 0.8% 14%  
415 1.1% 13%  
416 2% 12%  
417 0.9% 10%  
418 2% 9%  
419 0.7% 7%  
420 0.5% 6%  
421 1.0% 6%  
422 0.6% 5%  
423 0.4% 4%  
424 0.3% 4%  
425 0.2% 4%  
426 0.6% 3%  
427 0.4% 3%  
428 0.2% 2%  
429 0.1% 2%  
430 0.1% 2%  
431 0.3% 2%  
432 0.2% 2%  
433 0.1% 2%  
434 0.2% 1.4%  
435 0.2% 1.2%  
436 0.1% 1.0%  
437 0.1% 1.0%  
438 0.1% 0.9%  
439 0.2% 0.7%  
440 0% 0.6%  
441 0% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.5%  
443 0.1% 0.4%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.3%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0.1% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.6%  
371 0.2% 99.6%  
372 0.2% 99.4%  
373 0.2% 99.2%  
374 0.3% 99.0%  
375 0.4% 98.7%  
376 0.6% 98%  
377 0.6% 98%  
378 0.8% 97%  
379 0.8% 96%  
380 1.0% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 1.3% 93%  
383 2% 92%  
384 2% 90%  
385 2% 88%  
386 3% 86%  
387 2% 83%  
388 4% 81%  
389 2% 77%  
390 4% 75%  
391 4% 70%  
392 4% 67%  
393 4% 63%  
394 4% 59%  
395 4% 55%  
396 6% 51% Median
397 4% 45%  
398 3% 41%  
399 5% 39% Last Result
400 3% 34%  
401 4% 31%  
402 4% 27%  
403 2% 23%  
404 3% 21%  
405 2% 18%  
406 2% 16%  
407 1.4% 14%  
408 2% 13%  
409 1.0% 11%  
410 1.4% 10%  
411 2% 9%  
412 1.0% 7%  
413 0.8% 6%  
414 0.6% 6%  
415 0.4% 5%  
416 0.5% 5%  
417 0.4% 4%  
418 0.4% 4%  
419 0.3% 3%  
420 0.2% 3%  
421 0.2% 3%  
422 0.3% 3%  
423 0.1% 2%  
424 0.2% 2%  
425 0.4% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.2% 1.4%  
428 0.1% 1.2%  
429 0.2% 1.1%  
430 0.2% 0.9%  
431 0.2% 0.7%  
432 0% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.5%  
434 0.1% 0.4%  
435 0% 0.4%  
436 0.1% 0.3%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.2% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.1% 99.3%  
366 0.1% 99.2%  
367 0.1% 99.1%  
368 0.2% 99.0%  
369 0.2% 98.8%  
370 0.1% 98.6%  
371 0.3% 98%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.2% 98%  
374 0.3% 98%  
375 0.4% 97%  
376 0.7% 97%  
377 0.7% 96%  
378 1.2% 95%  
379 1.4% 94%  
380 1.1% 93%  
381 1.2% 92%  
382 1.0% 91%  
383 2% 90%  
384 2% 88%  
385 3% 86%  
386 3% 84%  
387 3% 81%  
388 3% 78%  
389 2% 75%  
390 3% 73%  
391 2% 69%  
392 4% 67%  
393 5% 63%  
394 4% 58%  
395 6% 53%  
396 3% 48% Median
397 3% 45%  
398 4% 42%  
399 3% 38%  
400 4% 35%  
401 4% 31%  
402 4% 27%  
403 4% 23%  
404 2% 19%  
405 2% 17%  
406 2% 15%  
407 1.4% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 2% 10%  
410 1.3% 7%  
411 1.2% 6%  
412 1.0% 5%  
413 0.6% 4%  
414 0.5% 3%  
415 0.5% 3%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.7% 2%  
418 0.3% 1.1%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.1% 0.6% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.3% 99.4%  
328 0.2% 99.1%  
329 0.3% 98.9%  
330 0.2% 98.7%  
331 0.5% 98%  
332 0.9% 98%  
333 0.8% 97%  
334 0.8% 96%  
335 1.1% 95%  
336 1.0% 94%  
337 2% 93%  
338 2% 92%  
339 2% 90%  
340 2% 88% Last Result
341 3% 86%  
342 2% 83%  
343 2% 80%  
344 3% 78%  
345 4% 75%  
346 5% 71%  
347 3% 66%  
348 4% 63%  
349 3% 60%  
350 4% 57%  
351 5% 53% Median
352 6% 48%  
353 3% 42%  
354 3% 39%  
355 4% 36% Majority
356 4% 32%  
357 3% 28%  
358 3% 24%  
359 2% 22%  
360 3% 20%  
361 2% 17%  
362 2% 15%  
363 1.0% 13%  
364 2% 12%  
365 2% 10%  
366 1.2% 8%  
367 0.6% 7%  
368 0.7% 7%  
369 0.8% 6%  
370 0.8% 5%  
371 0.7% 4%  
372 0.4% 4%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.3% 3%  
375 0.3% 3%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.1% 2%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.4% 2%  
380 0.2% 1.3%  
381 0.1% 1.0%  
382 0.3% 1.0%  
383 0.2% 0.7%  
384 0% 0.5%  
385 0% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.3%  
390 0.1% 0.3%  
391 0.1% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.4%  
291 0.3% 99.2%  
292 0.7% 98.9%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 0.6% 97%  
297 1.0% 96%  
298 1.2% 95%  
299 1.3% 94%  
300 2% 93%  
301 2% 90%  
302 1.4% 89%  
303 2% 87%  
304 2% 85%  
305 2% 83%  
306 4% 81%  
307 4% 77%  
308 4% 73%  
309 4% 69%  
310 3% 65%  
311 4% 62%  
312 3% 58%  
313 3% 55%  
314 6% 52% Median
315 4% 47%  
316 5% 42%  
317 4% 37%  
318 2% 33%  
319 3% 31%  
320 2% 27%  
321 3% 25%  
322 3% 22%  
323 3% 19%  
324 3% 16%  
325 2% 14%  
326 2% 12%  
327 1.0% 10%  
328 1.2% 9%  
329 1.1% 8%  
330 1.4% 7%  
331 1.2% 6%  
332 0.7% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.3% 3%  
336 0.2% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.1% 2%  
340 0.2% 1.4%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.7%  
346 0.2% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.4%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0.1% 99.2%  
280 0.1% 99.1%  
281 0.1% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 98.9%  
283 0.1% 98.8%  
284 0.2% 98.7%  
285 0.1% 98.5%  
286 0.2% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.6% 98%  
290 0.4% 97%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 0.3% 96%  
293 0.5% 96%  
294 0.5% 96%  
295 0.4% 95%  
296 0.7% 95%  
297 1.0% 94%  
298 0.9% 93%  
299 2% 92%  
300 2% 90%  
301 2% 88%  
302 2% 86%  
303 2% 85%  
304 3% 83%  
305 2% 80%  
306 2% 78%  
307 4% 76%  
308 2% 73%  
309 4% 70%  
310 5% 67%  
311 4% 62%  
312 5% 58%  
313 6% 53%  
314 5% 47% Median
315 3% 43%  
316 3% 40%  
317 3% 36%  
318 4% 33%  
319 2% 29%  
320 3% 27%  
321 3% 23%  
322 3% 20%  
323 2% 17%  
324 3% 15%  
325 2% 12%  
326 2% 10% Last Result
327 1.4% 8%  
328 1.2% 7%  
329 0.9% 5%  
330 0.7% 4%  
331 0.5% 4%  
332 0.8% 3%  
333 0.5% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.4% 1.2%  
337 0.2% 0.8%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
256 0% 100%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0.1% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.7%  
266 0% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0% 99.6%  
269 0.2% 99.6%  
270 0.2% 99.4%  
271 0.1% 99.2%  
272 0.1% 99.1%  
273 0.5% 99.0%  
274 0.1% 98.5%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.2% 98%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.3% 97%  
282 0.2% 97%  
283 0.3% 97%  
284 0.4% 97%  
285 0.5% 96%  
286 0.3% 96%  
287 0.7% 95%  
288 0.9% 95%  
289 0.6% 94%  
290 1.1% 93%  
291 2% 92%  
292 2% 91%  
293 2% 89%  
294 1.4% 87%  
295 2% 86%  
296 2% 84%  
297 3% 82%  
298 2% 79%  
299 4% 77%  
300 4% 73% Last Result
301 2% 70%  
302 2% 67%  
303 4% 65%  
304 6% 61%  
305 3% 55%  
306 6% 52% Median
307 3% 46%  
308 4% 43%  
309 3% 39%  
310 4% 35%  
311 5% 31%  
312 3% 26%  
313 4% 23%  
314 2% 19%  
315 2% 17%  
316 2% 16%  
317 3% 13%  
318 2% 11%  
319 2% 9%  
320 1.4% 8%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 0.7% 5%  
323 1.1% 5%  
324 0.9% 3%  
325 0.4% 3%  
326 0.5% 2%  
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.2% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.1% 99.6%  
238 0.2% 99.5%  
239 0.2% 99.3%  
240 0.3% 99.1%  
241 0.4% 98.7%  
242 0.4% 98%  
243 1.1% 98%  
244 0.4% 97%  
245 1.0% 96%  
246 2% 95%  
247 0.8% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 1.5% 91%  
250 1.4% 89%  
251 3% 88%  
252 2% 85%  
253 4% 83%  
254 3% 78%  
255 3% 75%  
256 4% 72%  
257 2% 68%  
258 4% 66%  
259 4% 62%  
260 2% 58%  
261 9% 56% Median
262 2% 47%  
263 5% 44%  
264 5% 39%  
265 2% 34%  
266 4% 32%  
267 4% 28%  
268 2% 25%  
269 4% 23%  
270 2% 19%  
271 3% 17%  
272 2% 14%  
273 2% 12%  
274 2% 10%  
275 0.8% 8%  
276 0.9% 8%  
277 2% 7%  
278 0.4% 5%  
279 1.2% 5%  
280 0.5% 4%  
281 0.4% 3%  
282 0.7% 3%  
283 0.3% 2%  
284 0.2% 2%  
285 0.3% 1.5%  
286 0.1% 1.2%  
287 0.1% 1.1%  
288 0.3% 0.9%  
289 0.1% 0.7%  
290 0.1% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.5%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0% 0.3%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.7%  
158 0.1% 99.6%  
159 0.3% 99.5%  
160 0.3% 99.2%  
161 0.5% 98.8%  
162 0.7% 98%  
163 0.7% 98%  
164 1.1% 97%  
165 1.0% 96%  
166 1.3% 95%  
167 1.4% 94%  
168 2% 92%  
169 2% 91%  
170 2% 88%  
171 3% 86%  
172 2% 83%  
173 4% 81%  
174 4% 77%  
175 3% 73%  
176 4% 70%  
177 4% 66%  
178 5% 62%  
179 4% 56%  
180 5% 52% Median
181 5% 47%  
182 5% 43%  
183 5% 38%  
184 4% 33%  
185 5% 30%  
186 4% 24%  
187 3% 21%  
188 3% 18%  
189 2% 15%  
190 2% 12%  
191 2% 10%  
192 2% 8%  
193 1.3% 7%  
194 1.2% 5%  
195 0.8% 4%  
196 0.6% 3%  
197 0.6% 3%  
198 0.6% 2%  
199 0.3% 2%  
200 0.2% 1.3%  
201 0.3% 1.1%  
202 0.1% 0.8%  
203 0.1% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0.1% 99.6%  
127 0.2% 99.5%  
128 0.1% 99.3%  
129 0.1% 99.2%  
130 0.1% 99.1%  
131 0.1% 99.0%  
132 0.1% 98.9%  
133 0.1% 98.7%  
134 0.1% 98.7%  
135 0.1% 98.6%  
136 0.6% 98.5%  
137 0.3% 98%  
138 0.3% 98%  
139 0.3% 97%  
140 0.1% 97%  
141 0.2% 97%  
142 0.1% 97%  
143 0.1% 97%  
144 0% 97%  
145 0.1% 97%  
146 0.1% 97%  
147 0.1% 96%  
148 0.1% 96%  
149 0.1% 96%  
150 0.1% 96%  
151 0.2% 96%  
152 0.2% 96%  
153 0.2% 96%  
154 0.5% 95%  
155 0.8% 95%  
156 0.9% 94%  
157 0.4% 93%  
158 0.3% 93%  
159 0.5% 92%  
160 0.9% 92%  
161 1.2% 91%  
162 2% 90%  
163 3% 88%  
164 7% 85%  
165 6% 79%  
166 3% 72%  
167 2% 69%  
168 1.5% 67%  
169 2% 65%  
170 2% 63%  
171 2% 61%  
172 4% 59% Median
173 8% 55%  
174 9% 47%  
175 8% 37%  
176 4% 30%  
177 3% 25%  
178 3% 22%  
179 3% 19%  
180 1.4% 16%  
181 1.3% 15%  
182 2% 14%  
183 2% 12%  
184 2% 9%  
185 1.2% 7%  
186 2% 6%  
187 2% 4%  
188 1.0% 3%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.1% 1.2%  
191 0.1% 1.1%  
192 0.1% 0.9%  
193 0.1% 0.8%  
194 0.1% 0.7%  
195 0.1% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.4%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations