Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 4–7 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.0% 25.8–28.3% 25.4–28.6% 25.1–28.9% 24.5–29.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.6% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 202 194–212 192–214 189–217 183–221
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 128–144 125–144 124–148 119–153
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 113–127 110–129 108–131 105–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 84 76–88 74–92 73–93 70–96
Die Linke 69 58 55–67 54–69 52–69 51–71
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 55–66 54–67 52–69 49–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 50 44–54 42–55 41–56 39–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.3% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.5%  
185 0.1% 99.4%  
186 0.7% 99.3%  
187 0.4% 98.6%  
188 0.3% 98%  
189 1.0% 98%  
190 0.5% 97%  
191 1.1% 96%  
192 2% 95%  
193 2% 93%  
194 2% 91%  
195 9% 89%  
196 2% 80%  
197 1.3% 78%  
198 4% 77%  
199 3% 73%  
200 1.1% 70% Last Result
201 12% 69%  
202 10% 57% Median
203 2% 48%  
204 3% 45%  
205 10% 43%  
206 4% 32%  
207 2% 29%  
208 8% 27%  
209 0.7% 19%  
210 5% 18%  
211 2% 13%  
212 2% 10%  
213 0.8% 8%  
214 3% 7%  
215 0.3% 5%  
216 1.2% 4%  
217 1.0% 3%  
218 0.5% 2%  
219 0.1% 2%  
220 1.0% 2%  
221 0.1% 0.6%  
222 0% 0.5%  
223 0.2% 0.4%  
224 0% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0.1% 0.1%  
228 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.3% 99.6%  
120 0.3% 99.4%  
121 0.2% 99.0%  
122 0.3% 98.8%  
123 0.7% 98.5%  
124 1.1% 98%  
125 2% 97%  
126 2% 95%  
127 0.8% 93%  
128 7% 92%  
129 3% 85%  
130 9% 82%  
131 2% 73%  
132 2% 71%  
133 6% 69%  
134 4% 63%  
135 14% 59% Median
136 2% 44%  
137 2% 42%  
138 5% 40%  
139 8% 35%  
140 10% 27%  
141 2% 17%  
142 2% 15%  
143 1.4% 12%  
144 6% 11%  
145 1.0% 5%  
146 0.5% 4%  
147 0.4% 3%  
148 1.0% 3%  
149 0.4% 2%  
150 0.4% 1.2%  
151 0.1% 0.8%  
152 0% 0.7%  
153 0.5% 0.7%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 0.7% 99.4%  
107 0.4% 98.7%  
108 1.1% 98%  
109 2% 97%  
110 2% 96%  
111 1.2% 94%  
112 2% 93%  
113 2% 91%  
114 6% 89%  
115 5% 83%  
116 4% 78%  
117 10% 74%  
118 8% 65%  
119 12% 56% Median
120 3% 45%  
121 9% 42%  
122 2% 32%  
123 7% 30%  
124 3% 23%  
125 4% 21%  
126 4% 17%  
127 5% 13%  
128 2% 8%  
129 1.1% 5%  
130 1.0% 4%  
131 1.0% 3%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.5% 2%  
134 0.2% 1.3%  
135 0.3% 1.1%  
136 0.4% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.1% 99.5%  
71 0.2% 99.4%  
72 0.5% 99.2%  
73 2% 98.7%  
74 3% 97%  
75 4% 94%  
76 1.2% 90%  
77 3% 89%  
78 5% 86%  
79 7% 81%  
80 5% 74%  
81 6% 69%  
82 5% 63%  
83 4% 58%  
84 20% 54% Median
85 9% 34%  
86 7% 25%  
87 5% 18%  
88 3% 13%  
89 1.4% 10%  
90 1.5% 8%  
91 1.0% 7%  
92 3% 6%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
95 0.2% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.1% 99.8%  
50 0.1% 99.7%  
51 0.5% 99.6%  
52 2% 99.1%  
53 0.8% 97%  
54 5% 97%  
55 6% 91%  
56 10% 85%  
57 9% 75%  
58 23% 66% Median
59 11% 43%  
60 8% 31%  
61 4% 24%  
62 0.9% 20%  
63 4% 19%  
64 1.1% 15%  
65 0.9% 14%  
66 2% 13%  
67 2% 11%  
68 4% 9%  
69 3% 5% Last Result
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.2%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.4% 99.4%  
51 0.7% 99.0%  
52 2% 98%  
53 1.3% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 5% 92%  
56 4% 88%  
57 16% 84%  
58 6% 69%  
59 9% 63%  
60 4% 53% Median
61 11% 49%  
62 7% 38%  
63 9% 32%  
64 3% 23%  
65 7% 20%  
66 7% 13%  
67 2% 6%  
68 1.5% 5%  
69 1.3% 3%  
70 0.4% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.4%  
72 0.1% 0.7%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.1% 99.6%  
40 0.7% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 3% 97%  
43 2% 94%  
44 3% 92%  
45 11% 89%  
46 5% 78%  
47 10% 73%  
48 5% 63%  
49 5% 57%  
50 15% 53% Median
51 15% 38%  
52 5% 22%  
53 2% 18%  
54 6% 16%  
55 6% 9%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 517 100% 509–527 506–529 504–531 499–537
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 448 100% 438–456 433–458 430–458 426–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 432 100% 421–442 419–445 417–446 411–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 398 100% 388–408 385–409 380–410 376–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 395 100% 385–403 381–407 379–409 373–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 382 100% 373–394 370–397 367–399 362–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 346 13% 336–356 332–358 330–361 324–365
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 314 0% 306–324 302–328 300–330 296–336
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 303–322 299–324 296–327 290–331
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 304 0% 294–313 292–316 288–320 283–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 245–265 242–268 241–271 235–275
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 178 0% 172–189 170–193 169–195 165–198
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 170 0% 160–176 158–180 156–182 151–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.9%  
496 0.1% 99.8%  
497 0.1% 99.8%  
498 0.1% 99.7%  
499 0.2% 99.6%  
500 0.3% 99.3%  
501 0.2% 99.1%  
502 0.4% 98.9%  
503 0.5% 98.5%  
504 2% 98%  
505 0.5% 96%  
506 3% 96%  
507 1.2% 93%  
508 2% 92%  
509 2% 90%  
510 2% 88%  
511 3% 87%  
512 1.2% 84%  
513 2% 83%  
514 3% 81%  
515 9% 77%  
516 10% 68% Median
517 11% 57%  
518 3% 47%  
519 5% 44%  
520 4% 39%  
521 5% 35%  
522 5% 31%  
523 1.3% 25%  
524 4% 24%  
525 4% 20%  
526 4% 16%  
527 5% 12%  
528 2% 7%  
529 1.0% 5%  
530 0.7% 4%  
531 1.0% 3%  
532 0.9% 2%  
533 0.5% 2%  
534 0.3% 1.1%  
535 0.2% 0.8%  
536 0.1% 0.6%  
537 0.1% 0.5%  
538 0.2% 0.4%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.2%  
544 0% 0.2%  
545 0% 0.2%  
546 0% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.2% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.7%  
425 0.2% 99.7%  
426 0.3% 99.6%  
427 0.2% 99.2%  
428 0.4% 99.1%  
429 1.1% 98.7%  
430 1.3% 98%  
431 0.2% 96%  
432 0.6% 96%  
433 2% 96%  
434 0.6% 94%  
435 1.2% 93%  
436 0.7% 92%  
437 0.2% 91%  
438 2% 91%  
439 2% 89%  
440 3% 87%  
441 1.2% 84%  
442 1.0% 83%  
443 5% 82%  
444 4% 77%  
445 6% 72%  
446 7% 66%  
447 2% 59% Median
448 17% 57%  
449 2% 40%  
450 6% 38%  
451 2% 32%  
452 1.2% 30%  
453 8% 29%  
454 2% 21%  
455 8% 19%  
456 3% 11%  
457 2% 8%  
458 3% 6%  
459 0.3% 2%  
460 1.1% 2%  
461 0.1% 1.0%  
462 0.1% 1.0%  
463 0.2% 0.9%  
464 0.3% 0.7%  
465 0.2% 0.4%  
466 0% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.8%  
409 0% 99.8%  
410 0.1% 99.8%  
411 0.5% 99.6%  
412 0.1% 99.2%  
413 0.1% 99.1%  
414 0.7% 99.0%  
415 0.3% 98%  
416 0.5% 98%  
417 1.3% 98%  
418 0.6% 96%  
419 0.9% 96%  
420 1.1% 95%  
421 4% 94%  
422 2% 89%  
423 0.8% 88%  
424 1.2% 87%  
425 4% 86%  
426 3% 82%  
427 11% 79%  
428 3% 68%  
429 3% 65%  
430 1.1% 61%  
431 5% 60% Median
432 12% 55%  
433 4% 43%  
434 4% 39%  
435 8% 34%  
436 3% 26%  
437 1.0% 23%  
438 3% 22%  
439 3% 19%  
440 4% 16%  
441 1.2% 11%  
442 0.7% 10%  
443 1.3% 9%  
444 0.5% 8%  
445 3% 8%  
446 3% 5%  
447 0.2% 2%  
448 0.4% 2%  
449 0.3% 2%  
450 0.6% 1.3%  
451 0.3% 0.8%  
452 0.2% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0% 99.7%  
376 0.5% 99.7%  
377 0.4% 99.1%  
378 0.2% 98.7%  
379 0.2% 98.5%  
380 0.9% 98%  
381 0.4% 97%  
382 0.7% 97%  
383 0.5% 96%  
384 0.6% 96%  
385 2% 95%  
386 0.6% 93%  
387 2% 93%  
388 2% 91%  
389 0.7% 89%  
390 1.4% 88%  
391 2% 87%  
392 1.1% 85%  
393 3% 83%  
394 3% 80%  
395 2% 78%  
396 8% 76%  
397 16% 68% Median
398 9% 52%  
399 3% 44%  
400 1.0% 41%  
401 8% 40%  
402 3% 32%  
403 2% 29%  
404 5% 27%  
405 5% 22%  
406 1.2% 17%  
407 1.1% 16%  
408 7% 15%  
409 5% 8%  
410 0.4% 3%  
411 0.6% 2%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.2% 1.4%  
414 0.2% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.9%  
416 0.2% 0.7%  
417 0% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0% 99.7%  
371 0% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.5%  
374 0% 99.4%  
375 1.1% 99.3%  
376 0.1% 98%  
377 0.3% 98%  
378 0.3% 98%  
379 0.9% 98%  
380 0.4% 97%  
381 2% 96%  
382 0.9% 95%  
383 0.5% 94%  
384 2% 93%  
385 2% 91%  
386 1.1% 90%  
387 6% 89%  
388 0.9% 83%  
389 1.3% 82%  
390 12% 81%  
391 2% 69%  
392 2% 67%  
393 9% 65%  
394 3% 57%  
395 4% 54%  
396 2% 50% Median
397 16% 48%  
398 0.7% 31%  
399 4% 31%  
400 2% 27%  
401 2% 25%  
402 3% 22%  
403 10% 19%  
404 1.4% 9%  
405 0.6% 8%  
406 2% 7%  
407 1.1% 5%  
408 0.4% 4%  
409 2% 4%  
410 1.1% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.2%  
412 0.2% 0.9%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.3% 0.4%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.6%  
363 0.1% 99.5%  
364 0.5% 99.3%  
365 0.5% 98.8%  
366 0.2% 98%  
367 0.7% 98%  
368 1.1% 97%  
369 1.1% 96%  
370 0.4% 95%  
371 2% 95%  
372 2% 93%  
373 2% 91%  
374 1.4% 89%  
375 2% 88%  
376 5% 86%  
377 9% 81%  
378 3% 72%  
379 2% 69%  
380 6% 67%  
381 10% 61% Median
382 6% 51%  
383 2% 45%  
384 2% 43%  
385 7% 41%  
386 8% 35%  
387 2% 26%  
388 2% 25%  
389 4% 23%  
390 3% 19%  
391 0.7% 16%  
392 0.3% 15%  
393 4% 15%  
394 4% 11%  
395 0.6% 7%  
396 0.5% 6%  
397 1.2% 6%  
398 0.6% 4%  
399 2% 4% Last Result
400 0.3% 2%  
401 0.4% 1.4%  
402 0.2% 1.1%  
403 0.3% 0.8%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0% 99.8%  
322 0% 99.8%  
323 0.2% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.5%  
325 0.1% 99.4%  
326 0.3% 99.3%  
327 0.6% 98.9%  
328 0.1% 98%  
329 0.4% 98%  
330 1.0% 98%  
331 1.1% 97%  
332 0.9% 96%  
333 0.5% 95%  
334 1.3% 94%  
335 2% 93%  
336 2% 91%  
337 2% 89%  
338 2% 87%  
339 1.3% 85%  
340 9% 84% Last Result
341 3% 75%  
342 6% 73%  
343 5% 67%  
344 1.0% 62%  
345 4% 61%  
346 13% 57% Median
347 2% 44%  
348 8% 42%  
349 5% 34%  
350 3% 29%  
351 1.2% 27%  
352 4% 25%  
353 6% 21%  
354 2% 15%  
355 2% 13% Majority
356 3% 11%  
357 2% 8%  
358 2% 6%  
359 0.7% 4%  
360 0.3% 3%  
361 1.1% 3%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.3%  
364 0.6% 1.1%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.3% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.3%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 1.1% 98.8%  
300 2% 98%  
301 0.4% 96%  
302 1.1% 96%  
303 2% 95%  
304 0.6% 93%  
305 1.4% 92%  
306 10% 91%  
307 3% 81%  
308 2% 78%  
309 2% 75%  
310 4% 73%  
311 0.7% 69%  
312 16% 69% Median
313 2% 52%  
314 4% 50%  
315 3% 46%  
316 9% 43%  
317 2% 35%  
318 2% 33%  
319 12% 31%  
320 1.3% 19%  
321 0.9% 18%  
322 6% 17%  
323 1.1% 11%  
324 2% 10%  
325 2% 9%  
326 0.5% 7%  
327 0.9% 6%  
328 2% 5%  
329 0.4% 4%  
330 0.9% 3%  
331 0.3% 2%  
332 0.3% 2%  
333 0.1% 2%  
334 1.1% 2%  
335 0% 0.7%  
336 0.1% 0.6%  
337 0.2% 0.5%  
338 0% 0.3%  
339 0% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.3% 99.6%  
291 0.1% 99.3%  
292 0.1% 99.2%  
293 0.3% 99.1%  
294 0.6% 98.8%  
295 0.4% 98%  
296 0.5% 98%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 0.9% 97%  
299 0.9% 96%  
300 1.3% 95%  
301 2% 93%  
302 1.1% 92%  
303 3% 91%  
304 2% 88%  
305 2% 86%  
306 12% 84%  
307 2% 72%  
308 3% 70%  
309 5% 67%  
310 5% 63%  
311 3% 58%  
312 3% 55% Median
313 10% 52%  
314 5% 41%  
315 1.1% 36%  
316 4% 35%  
317 4% 31%  
318 6% 27%  
319 3% 21%  
320 6% 19%  
321 1.2% 13%  
322 4% 11%  
323 1.3% 7%  
324 1.1% 6%  
325 1.4% 5%  
326 0.4% 4% Last Result
327 1.3% 3%  
328 0.2% 2%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.6% 1.2%  
331 0.1% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.2% 0.4%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.2% 99.6%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0.2% 99.3%  
286 0.4% 99.1%  
287 1.2% 98.7%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.4% 97%  
290 0.5% 97%  
291 1.2% 96%  
292 2% 95%  
293 1.4% 93%  
294 3% 92%  
295 2% 89%  
296 0.8% 87%  
297 7% 86%  
298 6% 79%  
299 1.2% 74%  
300 4% 72% Last Result
301 8% 68%  
302 1.5% 60%  
303 4% 59%  
304 6% 55% Median
305 10% 49%  
306 3% 40%  
307 6% 37%  
308 3% 31%  
309 2% 28%  
310 2% 27%  
311 10% 25%  
312 4% 15%  
313 2% 11%  
314 2% 9%  
315 0.6% 7%  
316 2% 7%  
317 1.0% 5%  
318 0.5% 4%  
319 0.6% 3%  
320 1.3% 3%  
321 0.3% 1.3%  
322 0.2% 1.0%  
323 0.1% 0.8%  
324 0.3% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.2% 99.8%  
235 0.3% 99.6%  
236 0.1% 99.4%  
237 0.2% 99.3%  
238 0.5% 99.1%  
239 0.2% 98.6%  
240 0.2% 98%  
241 2% 98%  
242 2% 97%  
243 0.7% 94%  
244 0.5% 93%  
245 3% 93%  
246 1.4% 90%  
247 6% 88%  
248 3% 83%  
249 5% 79%  
250 2% 74%  
251 5% 73%  
252 3% 68%  
253 3% 64%  
254 12% 62% Median
255 3% 49%  
256 7% 46%  
257 2% 39%  
258 5% 37%  
259 3% 32%  
260 2% 29%  
261 9% 27%  
262 5% 18%  
263 0.7% 13%  
264 1.2% 12%  
265 4% 11%  
266 1.0% 7%  
267 0.7% 6%  
268 1.3% 5%  
269 0.6% 4%  
270 0.5% 3%  
271 0.9% 3%  
272 0.6% 2%  
273 0.1% 1.0%  
274 0.1% 0.9%  
275 0.4% 0.8%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0.1% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0% 99.9%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0% 99.7%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.1% 99.6%  
166 0.2% 99.5%  
167 0.6% 99.3%  
168 0.5% 98.6%  
169 3% 98%  
170 1.1% 95%  
171 4% 94%  
172 8% 91%  
173 1.2% 83%  
174 5% 82%  
175 4% 76%  
176 7% 72%  
177 14% 65% Median
178 8% 51%  
179 11% 43%  
180 3% 32%  
181 7% 30%  
182 2% 22%  
183 0.9% 20%  
184 3% 20%  
185 1.2% 17%  
186 2% 15%  
187 0.9% 13%  
188 2% 12%  
189 1.1% 10%  
190 1.3% 9%  
191 1.4% 8%  
192 1.0% 6%  
193 0.7% 5%  
194 1.5% 4%  
195 0.6% 3%  
196 1.2% 2%  
197 0.3% 1.2%  
198 0.4% 0.9%  
199 0.2% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.8%  
138 0% 99.8%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0% 99.8%  
147 0% 99.8%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0% 99.6%  
151 0.1% 99.5%  
152 0.3% 99.4%  
153 0.1% 99.1%  
154 0.2% 99.0%  
155 0.7% 98.8%  
156 0.9% 98%  
157 0.5% 97%  
158 3% 97%  
159 3% 93%  
160 3% 90%  
161 2% 87%  
162 4% 85%  
163 4% 81%  
164 3% 77%  
165 1.4% 74%  
166 3% 72%  
167 7% 69%  
168 6% 62%  
169 2% 56% Median
170 15% 54%  
171 12% 39%  
172 4% 27%  
173 4% 24%  
174 8% 20%  
175 1.2% 12%  
176 1.4% 11%  
177 2% 9%  
178 1.5% 8%  
179 1.0% 6%  
180 0.7% 5%  
181 0.5% 5%  
182 2% 4%  
183 0.3% 2%  
184 0.7% 2%  
185 0.6% 1.4%  
186 0.3% 0.8%  
187 0.1% 0.5%  
188 0.3% 0.4%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations