Opinion Poll by Kantar, 3–9 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 27.8–30.8% 27.3–31.3% 27.0–31.7% 26.2–32.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.7–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.1% 15.5–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.7% 15.2–19.1% 14.6–19.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–8.0% 5.6–8.2% 5.2–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 206–230 203–234 201–238 195–245
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 124–144 122–148 120–150 115–155
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 126 118–137 116–140 113–142 108–148
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 67–83 66–85 64–87 60–92
Die Linke 69 60 53–67 52–69 50–71 47–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–57 43–59 42–61 39–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 40–51 0–52 0–55 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.1% 99.6%  
196 0.2% 99.5%  
197 0.3% 99.3%  
198 0.4% 99.0%  
199 0.5% 98.6%  
200 0.5% 98% Last Result
201 0.9% 98%  
202 0.9% 97%  
203 1.2% 96%  
204 2% 95%  
205 1.1% 93%  
206 2% 92%  
207 2% 90%  
208 2% 88%  
209 3% 85%  
210 3% 83%  
211 4% 80%  
212 4% 76%  
213 3% 72%  
214 4% 69%  
215 4% 65%  
216 5% 61%  
217 5% 56%  
218 4% 51% Median
219 4% 47%  
220 7% 43%  
221 3% 37%  
222 3% 34%  
223 4% 31%  
224 2% 27%  
225 3% 24%  
226 4% 21%  
227 2% 18%  
228 2% 16%  
229 2% 13%  
230 2% 11%  
231 1.5% 9%  
232 1.4% 8%  
233 0.9% 7%  
234 1.2% 6%  
235 0.7% 5%  
236 0.7% 4%  
237 0.5% 3%  
238 0.5% 3%  
239 0.4% 2%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.5% 2%  
242 0.2% 1.1%  
243 0.1% 0.8%  
244 0.2% 0.7%  
245 0.1% 0.6%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.4%  
248 0.1% 0.3%  
249 0% 0.2%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.2% 99.6%  
116 0.3% 99.5%  
117 0.3% 99.2%  
118 0.5% 98.9%  
119 0.8% 98%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 1.3% 97%  
122 1.3% 95%  
123 2% 94%  
124 2% 92%  
125 3% 90%  
126 3% 87%  
127 3% 84%  
128 3% 81%  
129 4% 78%  
130 6% 74%  
131 6% 68%  
132 4% 62%  
133 5% 58%  
134 5% 53% Median
135 5% 48%  
136 5% 44%  
137 5% 38%  
138 5% 33%  
139 4% 28%  
140 3% 25%  
141 4% 21%  
142 3% 17%  
143 3% 15%  
144 2% 12%  
145 2% 10%  
146 1.5% 8%  
147 1.3% 6%  
148 1.4% 5%  
149 1.1% 4%  
150 0.5% 3%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.4% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.3%  
154 0.3% 1.0%  
155 0.3% 0.7%  
156 0.1% 0.5%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0.1% 99.9%  
107 0.2% 99.8%  
108 0.2% 99.7%  
109 0.2% 99.4%  
110 0.4% 99.2%  
111 0.6% 98.8%  
112 0.5% 98%  
113 1.0% 98%  
114 0.9% 97%  
115 0.7% 96%  
116 3% 95%  
117 2% 92%  
118 2% 91%  
119 3% 88%  
120 4% 85%  
121 3% 81%  
122 6% 78%  
123 6% 72%  
124 5% 66%  
125 6% 61%  
126 5% 55% Median
127 3% 50%  
128 5% 47%  
129 6% 41%  
130 2% 36%  
131 6% 34%  
132 4% 28%  
133 3% 23%  
134 4% 21%  
135 3% 17%  
136 3% 14%  
137 2% 11%  
138 2% 9%  
139 1.2% 6%  
140 1.2% 5%  
141 1.2% 4%  
142 0.3% 3%  
143 0.7% 2%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.2% 1.2%  
146 0.3% 1.0%  
147 0.2% 0.7%  
148 0.1% 0.5%  
149 0.1% 0.4%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1% Last Result
154 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.5%  
62 0.5% 99.2%  
63 0.8% 98.7%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 95%  
67 3% 93%  
68 3% 90%  
69 5% 87%  
70 5% 82%  
71 4% 77%  
72 6% 72%  
73 7% 66%  
74 7% 59%  
75 5% 53% Median
76 8% 48%  
77 7% 40%  
78 5% 33%  
79 6% 28%  
80 4% 22%  
81 3% 18%  
82 3% 14%  
83 3% 11%  
84 2% 8%  
85 2% 6%  
86 2% 5%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.2%  
91 0.2% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.5% 99.4%  
49 0.9% 98.9%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 95%  
53 3% 93%  
54 4% 90%  
55 5% 86%  
56 5% 81%  
57 7% 76%  
58 7% 68%  
59 8% 62%  
60 7% 54% Median
61 7% 47%  
62 7% 40%  
63 8% 33%  
64 5% 25%  
65 4% 20%  
66 4% 16%  
67 3% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.4% 5%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.5%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.3%  
41 0.9% 98.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 3% 94%  
45 4% 91%  
46 5% 87% Last Result
47 7% 81%  
48 7% 74%  
49 7% 68%  
50 7% 61%  
51 8% 53% Median
52 9% 46%  
53 8% 37%  
54 6% 29%  
55 5% 23%  
56 4% 18%  
57 4% 14%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 0% 95%  
8 0% 95%  
9 0% 95%  
10 0% 95%  
11 0% 95%  
12 0% 95%  
13 0% 95%  
14 0% 95%  
15 0% 95%  
16 0% 95%  
17 0% 95%  
18 0% 95%  
19 0% 95%  
20 0% 95%  
21 0% 95%  
22 0% 95%  
23 0% 95%  
24 0% 95%  
25 0% 95%  
26 0% 95%  
27 0% 95%  
28 0% 95%  
29 0% 95%  
30 0% 95%  
31 0% 95%  
32 0% 95%  
33 0% 95%  
34 0% 95%  
35 0% 95%  
36 0% 95%  
37 0.5% 95%  
38 1.5% 94%  
39 1.4% 93%  
40 5% 91%  
41 11% 87%  
42 10% 75%  
43 4% 65%  
44 3% 61%  
45 7% 58%  
46 14% 51% Median
47 12% 38%  
48 5% 26%  
49 2% 21%  
50 4% 19%  
51 6% 15%  
52 4% 9%  
53 1.3% 5%  
54 0.6% 4%  
55 0.8% 3%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.7% 1.2%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 528 100% 518–543 516–552 513–563 507–573
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 447 100% 434–459 430–462 426–465 419–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 440 100% 426–452 422–455 417–458 409–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 403 100% 390–417 387–424 384–431 378–440
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 395 100% 383–409 380–416 377–422 371–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 388 99.5% 374–400 369–404 364–407 355–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 16% 331–358 328–363 325–369 319–379
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 321 0.5% 309–335 305–340 302–345 297–354
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 299–325 293–329 285–332 275–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 306 0% 291–318 285–322 277–324 266–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 261 0% 249–274 246–278 243–283 237–291
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 187 0% 176–198 173–202 171–205 165–211
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 171 0% 159–182 146–185 134–188 126–193

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 99.9%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0% 99.9%  
504 0% 99.9%  
505 0.1% 99.8%  
506 0.1% 99.8%  
507 0.3% 99.7%  
508 0.3% 99.4%  
509 0.5% 99.2%  
510 0.4% 98.6%  
511 0.3% 98%  
512 0.3% 98%  
513 0.3% 98%  
514 0.3% 97%  
515 2% 97%  
516 1.3% 95%  
517 4% 94%  
518 3% 90%  
519 3% 87%  
520 1.2% 84%  
521 0.8% 83%  
522 0.7% 82%  
523 2% 82%  
524 4% 79%  
525 8% 75%  
526 8% 67%  
527 6% 59%  
528 6% 54%  
529 2% 48% Median
530 0.9% 46%  
531 2% 45%  
532 2% 43%  
533 5% 41%  
534 9% 37%  
535 7% 28%  
536 4% 21%  
537 2% 17%  
538 0.6% 15%  
539 0.3% 14%  
540 0.7% 14%  
541 2% 13%  
542 1.3% 12%  
543 2% 10%  
544 1.3% 8%  
545 0.7% 7%  
546 0.3% 6%  
547 0.1% 6%  
548 0.1% 6%  
549 0.1% 6%  
550 0.3% 6%  
551 0.2% 5%  
552 0.2% 5%  
553 0.1% 5%  
554 0.1% 5%  
555 0% 5%  
556 0% 5%  
557 0% 5%  
558 0.1% 5%  
559 0.2% 5%  
560 0.6% 4%  
561 0.4% 4%  
562 0.3% 3%  
563 0.6% 3%  
564 0.1% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 0% 2%  
567 0.1% 2%  
568 0.1% 2%  
569 0.1% 2%  
570 0.6% 2%  
571 0.5% 1.4%  
572 0.2% 0.9%  
573 0.3% 0.7%  
574 0.1% 0.4%  
575 0% 0.3%  
576 0% 0.3%  
577 0% 0.3%  
578 0% 0.2%  
579 0% 0.2%  
580 0.1% 0.2%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.6%  
420 0.2% 99.4%  
421 0.2% 99.3%  
422 0.2% 99.0%  
423 0.3% 98.8%  
424 0.4% 98.5%  
425 0.4% 98%  
426 0.4% 98%  
427 0.6% 97%  
428 0.8% 97%  
429 0.9% 96%  
430 0.7% 95%  
431 1.3% 94%  
432 1.1% 93%  
433 2% 92%  
434 2% 90%  
435 2% 89%  
436 2% 87%  
437 2% 85%  
438 2% 82%  
439 3% 80%  
440 3% 77%  
441 2% 74%  
442 4% 72%  
443 2% 68%  
444 5% 65%  
445 4% 60%  
446 4% 56%  
447 4% 52%  
448 4% 48%  
449 5% 44% Median
450 3% 39%  
451 5% 36%  
452 2% 32%  
453 3% 29%  
454 4% 26%  
455 2% 21%  
456 3% 19%  
457 3% 16%  
458 1.4% 13%  
459 3% 12%  
460 2% 9%  
461 1.2% 7%  
462 1.5% 6%  
463 0.9% 5%  
464 0.8% 4%  
465 0.6% 3%  
466 0.6% 2%  
467 0.3% 2%  
468 0.4% 1.4%  
469 0.3% 1.0%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.1% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.4%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.8%  
406 0% 99.8%  
407 0% 99.7%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.1% 99.5%  
411 0.1% 99.4%  
412 0.2% 99.3%  
413 0.2% 99.1%  
414 0.4% 98.9%  
415 0.3% 98.6%  
416 0.4% 98%  
417 0.4% 98%  
418 0.4% 97%  
419 0.4% 97%  
420 0.6% 97%  
421 0.8% 96%  
422 0.7% 95%  
423 1.0% 95%  
424 1.0% 93%  
425 1.1% 92%  
426 2% 91%  
427 1.4% 90%  
428 2% 88%  
429 2% 86%  
430 2% 85%  
431 2% 83%  
432 2% 80%  
433 5% 78%  
434 3% 73%  
435 2% 70%  
436 5% 68%  
437 3% 63%  
438 3% 60%  
439 6% 57%  
440 5% 51%  
441 4% 46% Median
442 3% 42%  
443 5% 39%  
444 3% 34%  
445 4% 31%  
446 4% 27%  
447 4% 24%  
448 2% 20%  
449 3% 18%  
450 2% 15%  
451 2% 13%  
452 2% 11%  
453 1.4% 9%  
454 2% 8%  
455 1.2% 6%  
456 0.8% 5%  
457 0.7% 4%  
458 0.6% 3%  
459 0.5% 2%  
460 0.7% 2%  
461 0.3% 1.3%  
462 0.3% 1.0%  
463 0.1% 0.6%  
464 0.2% 0.5%  
465 0.1% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0.1% 0.1%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.2% 99.5%  
379 0.2% 99.4%  
380 0.3% 99.2%  
381 0.3% 98.9%  
382 0.3% 98.6%  
383 0.6% 98%  
384 0.8% 98%  
385 0.8% 97%  
386 1.0% 96%  
387 1.1% 95%  
388 1.2% 94%  
389 2% 93%  
390 2% 91%  
391 2% 90%  
392 3% 88%  
393 3% 85%  
394 3% 82%  
395 3% 79%  
396 3% 76%  
397 4% 73%  
398 3% 69%  
399 4% 67%  
400 4% 63%  
401 4% 59%  
402 4% 55%  
403 5% 51% Median
404 2% 46%  
405 5% 44%  
406 4% 39%  
407 4% 35%  
408 3% 31%  
409 4% 28%  
410 2% 24%  
411 2% 22%  
412 4% 21%  
413 2% 17%  
414 2% 15%  
415 2% 13%  
416 1.0% 12%  
417 1.1% 11%  
418 0.8% 10%  
419 1.2% 9%  
420 0.6% 8%  
421 0.8% 7%  
422 0.6% 6%  
423 0.5% 6%  
424 0.4% 5%  
425 0.4% 5%  
426 0.4% 5%  
427 0.3% 4%  
428 0.5% 4%  
429 0.4% 3%  
430 0.1% 3%  
431 0.5% 3%  
432 0.2% 2%  
433 0.4% 2%  
434 0.1% 2%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.3% 1.5%  
437 0.2% 1.1%  
438 0.2% 1.0%  
439 0.1% 0.7%  
440 0.3% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0% 0.2%  
444 0.1% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.6%  
371 0.2% 99.5%  
372 0.3% 99.3%  
373 0.2% 99.1%  
374 0.4% 98.9%  
375 0.5% 98%  
376 0.4% 98%  
377 0.7% 98%  
378 0.8% 97%  
379 0.8% 96%  
380 1.0% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 1.4% 92%  
383 2% 91%  
384 2% 89%  
385 2% 87%  
386 3% 85%  
387 3% 82%  
388 3% 78%  
389 3% 75%  
390 3% 72%  
391 4% 69%  
392 3% 65%  
393 4% 62%  
394 5% 58%  
395 4% 53% Median
396 4% 49%  
397 3% 45%  
398 4% 42%  
399 4% 38% Last Result
400 3% 34%  
401 3% 31%  
402 2% 28%  
403 3% 26%  
404 2% 23%  
405 3% 20%  
406 2% 17%  
407 2% 16%  
408 2% 13%  
409 2% 12%  
410 0.9% 10%  
411 1.0% 9%  
412 0.8% 8%  
413 0.6% 7%  
414 1.1% 7%  
415 0.5% 6%  
416 0.5% 5%  
417 0.4% 5%  
418 0.4% 4%  
419 0.3% 4%  
420 0.4% 3%  
421 0.3% 3%  
422 0.2% 3%  
423 0.3% 2%  
424 0.3% 2%  
425 0.1% 2%  
426 0.3% 2%  
427 0.2% 1.5%  
428 0.2% 1.3%  
429 0.1% 1.1%  
430 0.1% 1.0%  
431 0.1% 0.9%  
432 0.1% 0.8%  
433 0.1% 0.7%  
434 0.1% 0.6%  
435 0% 0.5%  
436 0.1% 0.5%  
437 0.1% 0.4%  
438 0.1% 0.3%  
439 0% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.2%  
441 0% 0.2%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0.1% 99.6%  
355 0.2% 99.5% Majority
356 0.1% 99.3%  
357 0.1% 99.2%  
358 0.1% 99.1%  
359 0.2% 99.0%  
360 0.2% 98.8%  
361 0.2% 98.6%  
362 0.4% 98%  
363 0.4% 98%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.2% 97%  
366 0.4% 97%  
367 0.6% 97%  
368 0.6% 96%  
369 0.9% 95%  
370 0.9% 95%  
371 0.8% 94%  
372 1.1% 93%  
373 1.4% 92%  
374 1.5% 90%  
375 1.2% 89%  
376 1.5% 88%  
377 2% 86%  
378 2% 84%  
379 3% 82%  
380 2% 79%  
381 3% 77%  
382 4% 74%  
383 3% 70%  
384 4% 67%  
385 4% 63%  
386 3% 59%  
387 4% 56%  
388 3% 52%  
389 4% 49%  
390 3% 44% Median
391 4% 41%  
392 5% 37%  
393 3% 32%  
394 3% 28%  
395 3% 26%  
396 4% 23%  
397 3% 19%  
398 2% 16%  
399 3% 14%  
400 2% 12%  
401 2% 10%  
402 1.4% 8%  
403 1.3% 7%  
404 0.9% 5%  
405 1.0% 4%  
406 0.6% 3%  
407 0.6% 3%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.4% 1.4%  
411 0.3% 1.0%  
412 0.2% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.7%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.1% 99.5%  
320 0.2% 99.4%  
321 0.3% 99.2%  
322 0.3% 98.9%  
323 0.5% 98.6%  
324 0.5% 98%  
325 0.6% 98%  
326 0.9% 97%  
327 1.0% 96%  
328 1.2% 95%  
329 1.1% 94%  
330 1.5% 93%  
331 2% 91%  
332 2% 89%  
333 2% 87%  
334 2% 85%  
335 3% 83%  
336 3% 80%  
337 3% 77%  
338 4% 73%  
339 3% 70%  
340 3% 66% Last Result
341 5% 63%  
342 3% 58%  
343 4% 54%  
344 4% 50% Median
345 3% 46%  
346 4% 43%  
347 3% 38%  
348 3% 36%  
349 3% 32%  
350 4% 29%  
351 4% 25%  
352 2% 22%  
353 2% 20%  
354 1.5% 17%  
355 3% 16% Majority
356 1.2% 13%  
357 1.4% 12%  
358 1.2% 10%  
359 1.1% 9%  
360 1.0% 8%  
361 0.8% 7%  
362 0.6% 6%  
363 0.9% 6%  
364 0.6% 5%  
365 0.3% 4%  
366 0.4% 4%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.4% 3%  
369 0.5% 3%  
370 0.3% 2%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.1% 1.4%  
374 0.1% 1.3%  
375 0.1% 1.2%  
376 0.3% 1.1%  
377 0.1% 0.8%  
378 0.1% 0.7%  
379 0.2% 0.6%  
380 0% 0.4%  
381 0.1% 0.3%  
382 0% 0.3%  
383 0% 0.2%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.3% 99.3%  
299 0.4% 99.0%  
300 0.4% 98.6%  
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.6% 98%  
303 0.6% 97%  
304 1.0% 97%  
305 0.9% 96%  
306 1.3% 95%  
307 1.4% 93%  
308 2% 92%  
309 2% 90%  
310 3% 88%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 84%  
313 4% 81%  
314 3% 77%  
315 3% 74%  
316 3% 72%  
317 5% 68%  
318 4% 63%  
319 3% 59%  
320 4% 56% Median
321 3% 51%  
322 4% 48%  
323 3% 44%  
324 4% 41%  
325 4% 37%  
326 3% 33%  
327 4% 30%  
328 3% 26%  
329 2% 23%  
330 3% 21%  
331 2% 18%  
332 2% 16%  
333 1.5% 14%  
334 1.2% 12%  
335 1.5% 11%  
336 1.4% 10%  
337 1.1% 8%  
338 0.8% 7%  
339 0.9% 6%  
340 0.9% 5%  
341 0.6% 5%  
342 0.6% 4%  
343 0.4% 3%  
344 0.2% 3%  
345 0.3% 3%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 2%  
349 0.2% 1.4%  
350 0.2% 1.2%  
351 0.1% 1.0%  
352 0.1% 0.9%  
353 0.1% 0.8%  
354 0.2% 0.7%  
355 0.1% 0.5% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.2%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.4%  
278 0.1% 99.3%  
279 0.3% 99.2%  
280 0.3% 98.9%  
281 0.1% 98.6%  
282 0.2% 98.5%  
283 0.3% 98%  
284 0.3% 98%  
285 0.3% 98%  
286 0.3% 97%  
287 0.2% 97%  
288 0.4% 97%  
289 0.3% 97%  
290 0.3% 96%  
291 0.4% 96%  
292 0.6% 96%  
293 0.6% 95%  
294 0.4% 94%  
295 0.6% 94%  
296 1.3% 93%  
297 0.7% 92%  
298 1.0% 91%  
299 1.2% 90%  
300 2% 89%  
301 2% 88%  
302 2% 86%  
303 2% 84%  
304 2% 82%  
305 3% 80%  
306 2% 76%  
307 3% 74%  
308 5% 71%  
309 3% 67%  
310 3% 63%  
311 4% 60%  
312 3% 56%  
313 4% 53%  
314 3% 49%  
315 4% 45% Median
316 5% 42%  
317 4% 37%  
318 3% 33%  
319 3% 30%  
320 5% 27%  
321 4% 22%  
322 2% 19%  
323 3% 16%  
324 2% 14%  
325 2% 12%  
326 1.4% 10% Last Result
327 1.4% 8%  
328 1.3% 7%  
329 1.3% 6%  
330 0.9% 5%  
331 0.6% 4%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.6% 2%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.3%  
336 0.3% 1.0%  
337 0.2% 0.8%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
255 0% 100%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0.1% 99.9%  
261 0.1% 99.8%  
262 0.1% 99.8%  
263 0% 99.7%  
264 0.1% 99.7%  
265 0.1% 99.6%  
266 0.1% 99.5%  
267 0.1% 99.4%  
268 0.2% 99.3%  
269 0.1% 99.0%  
270 0.1% 99.0%  
271 0.2% 98.9%  
272 0.2% 98.7%  
273 0.2% 98.5%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.1% 98%  
277 0.3% 98%  
278 0.3% 97%  
279 0.2% 97%  
280 0.5% 97%  
281 0.2% 96%  
282 0.3% 96%  
283 0.3% 96%  
284 0.5% 96%  
285 0.5% 95%  
286 0.7% 95%  
287 0.3% 94%  
288 0.8% 94%  
289 0.8% 93%  
290 1.4% 92%  
291 0.9% 90%  
292 1.3% 90%  
293 1.1% 88%  
294 2% 87%  
295 3% 85%  
296 2% 82%  
297 3% 80%  
298 2% 77%  
299 3% 75%  
300 4% 72% Last Result
301 5% 69%  
302 3% 64%  
303 4% 61%  
304 1.4% 57%  
305 5% 55%  
306 5% 50% Median
307 5% 45%  
308 3% 41%  
309 4% 38%  
310 3% 34%  
311 4% 31%  
312 4% 27%  
313 3% 23%  
314 3% 20%  
315 2% 17%  
316 2% 15%  
317 3% 13%  
318 2% 11%  
319 1.2% 8%  
320 1.1% 7%  
321 0.9% 6%  
322 1.2% 5%  
323 0.7% 4%  
324 0.8% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.4% 2%  
327 0.3% 1.5%  
328 0.3% 1.2%  
329 0.3% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.2% 99.6%  
238 0.2% 99.5%  
239 0.3% 99.3%  
240 0.4% 99.0%  
241 0.3% 98.6%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.8% 98%  
244 0.8% 97%  
245 1.0% 96%  
246 1.4% 95%  
247 1.1% 94%  
248 2% 93%  
249 2% 91%  
250 2% 89%  
251 3% 87%  
252 3% 84%  
253 3% 82%  
254 4% 79%  
255 4% 75%  
256 4% 71%  
257 3% 67%  
258 3% 64%  
259 4% 61%  
260 4% 56% Median
261 5% 53%  
262 3% 47%  
263 3% 44%  
264 4% 40%  
265 4% 36%  
266 4% 32%  
267 3% 28%  
268 3% 26%  
269 3% 22%  
270 2% 20%  
271 2% 17%  
272 3% 15%  
273 2% 13%  
274 1.5% 11%  
275 1.5% 9%  
276 1.1% 8%  
277 1.2% 7%  
278 0.9% 6%  
279 0.6% 5%  
280 0.7% 4%  
281 0.4% 3%  
282 0.5% 3%  
283 0.4% 3%  
284 0.4% 2%  
285 0.3% 2%  
286 0.2% 1.4%  
287 0.2% 1.2%  
288 0.1% 1.0%  
289 0.2% 0.9%  
290 0.1% 0.7%  
291 0.1% 0.6%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0.1% 0.4%  
294 0.1% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.3%  
296 0.1% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.8%  
165 0.3% 99.7%  
166 0.1% 99.4%  
167 0.3% 99.3%  
168 0.4% 99.0%  
169 0.5% 98.6%  
170 0.5% 98%  
171 0.7% 98%  
172 2% 97%  
173 0.6% 95%  
174 1.4% 95%  
175 2% 93%  
176 3% 92%  
177 2% 89%  
178 3% 87%  
179 5% 85%  
180 3% 80%  
181 3% 77%  
182 4% 74%  
183 5% 70%  
184 4% 65%  
185 3% 61%  
186 6% 58% Median
187 4% 52%  
188 5% 48%  
189 3% 43%  
190 7% 40%  
191 4% 34%  
192 2% 30%  
193 4% 28%  
194 3% 24%  
195 4% 21%  
196 2% 17%  
197 3% 15%  
198 3% 13%  
199 1.2% 10%  
200 2% 9%  
201 1.1% 7%  
202 2% 6%  
203 0.5% 4%  
204 1.0% 4%  
205 0.8% 3%  
206 0.3% 2%  
207 0.4% 2%  
208 0.2% 1.3%  
209 0.4% 1.1%  
210 0.1% 0.7%  
211 0.1% 0.5%  
212 0.1% 0.4%  
213 0.1% 0.3%  
214 0.1% 0.2%  
215 0% 0.2%  
216 0.1% 0.1%  
217 0% 0.1%  
218 0% 0.1%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0.1% 99.6%  
126 0.1% 99.6%  
127 0.1% 99.4%  
128 0.2% 99.3%  
129 0.3% 99.1%  
130 0.3% 98.8%  
131 0.3% 98%  
132 0.4% 98%  
133 0.2% 98%  
134 0.2% 98%  
135 0.5% 97%  
136 0.2% 97%  
137 0.2% 97%  
138 0.4% 97%  
139 0.1% 96%  
140 0.2% 96%  
141 0.2% 96%  
142 0.1% 96%  
143 0.2% 96%  
144 0.1% 95%  
145 0.1% 95%  
146 0.1% 95%  
147 0.1% 95%  
148 0.1% 95%  
149 0.1% 95%  
150 0.2% 95%  
151 0.2% 95%  
152 0.1% 94%  
153 0.3% 94%  
154 0.3% 94%  
155 0.3% 94%  
156 0.8% 93%  
157 0.5% 92%  
158 0.7% 92%  
159 1.3% 91%  
160 2% 90%  
161 1.4% 88%  
162 2% 87%  
163 2% 85%  
164 4% 83%  
165 3% 79%  
166 4% 76%  
167 4% 73%  
168 4% 68%  
169 3% 64%  
170 7% 61%  
171 5% 54%  
172 3% 49% Median
173 6% 46%  
174 4% 40%  
175 5% 36%  
176 3% 31%  
177 4% 28%  
178 3% 24%  
179 4% 21%  
180 3% 17%  
181 2% 15%  
182 3% 13%  
183 1.1% 10%  
184 2% 8%  
185 2% 6%  
186 0.9% 5%  
187 1.1% 4%  
188 0.5% 3%  
189 0.7% 2%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.2% 1.1%  
192 0.2% 0.9%  
193 0.2% 0.6%  
194 0.1% 0.4%  
195 0.1% 0.3%  
196 0.1% 0.2%  
197 0% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations