Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 11–14 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.5% 26.3–28.8% 25.9–29.2% 25.6–29.5% 25.0–30.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 16.0–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.6–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 206 197–216 194–218 192–221 187–226
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 120–135 118–137 116–139 112–143
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 113–126 111–129 110–131 106–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 86 80–93 78–95 77–96 73–100
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 55–66 53–68 52–69 49–72
Die Linke 69 56 52–61 50–63 49–64 46–68
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–58 46–60 45–61 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.8%  
186 0.1% 99.7%  
187 0.2% 99.7%  
188 0.3% 99.5%  
189 0.3% 99.2%  
190 0.6% 98.9%  
191 0.6% 98%  
192 0.9% 98%  
193 1.2% 97%  
194 1.4% 96%  
195 2% 94%  
196 2% 92%  
197 3% 90%  
198 2% 87%  
199 5% 85%  
200 4% 80% Last Result
201 3% 77%  
202 7% 74%  
203 4% 67%  
204 5% 63%  
205 7% 58%  
206 5% 51% Median
207 6% 47%  
208 5% 41%  
209 6% 36%  
210 4% 30%  
211 5% 27%  
212 4% 22%  
213 2% 18%  
214 4% 16%  
215 2% 12%  
216 2% 10%  
217 2% 8%  
218 2% 6%  
219 1.1% 4%  
220 0.8% 3%  
221 0.8% 3%  
222 0.4% 2%  
223 0.5% 1.4%  
224 0.2% 0.9%  
225 0.1% 0.7%  
226 0.2% 0.5%  
227 0.1% 0.3%  
228 0.1% 0.2%  
229 0.1% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.6% 99.1%  
115 0.7% 98.6%  
116 1.3% 98%  
117 1.3% 97%  
118 2% 95%  
119 3% 93%  
120 2% 90%  
121 4% 88%  
122 5% 84%  
123 6% 79%  
124 6% 74%  
125 7% 68%  
126 7% 61%  
127 6% 54% Median
128 6% 48%  
129 6% 42%  
130 5% 37%  
131 7% 31%  
132 4% 25%  
133 5% 20%  
134 3% 15%  
135 3% 12%  
136 3% 8%  
137 1.5% 6%  
138 1.1% 4%  
139 1.0% 3%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.1%  
143 0.3% 0.7%  
144 0.1% 0.4%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
101 0% 100%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.3% 99.3%  
108 0.6% 98.9%  
109 0.6% 98%  
110 1.1% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 3% 93%  
114 3% 90%  
115 5% 87%  
116 6% 82%  
117 7% 76%  
118 8% 69%  
119 7% 61%  
120 8% 53% Median
121 7% 45%  
122 9% 38%  
123 5% 29%  
124 6% 24%  
125 4% 18%  
126 4% 14%  
127 3% 9%  
128 2% 7%  
129 2% 5%  
130 0.8% 3%  
131 0.8% 3%  
132 0.4% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.3%  
134 0.3% 0.9%  
135 0.2% 0.7%  
136 0.1% 0.5%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.4% 99.5%  
75 0.6% 99.1%  
76 0.8% 98%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 3% 91%  
81 4% 87%  
82 6% 83%  
83 8% 77%  
84 7% 69%  
85 7% 62%  
86 7% 55% Median
87 7% 48%  
88 8% 40%  
89 7% 32%  
90 5% 26%  
91 4% 20%  
92 5% 16%  
93 4% 11%  
94 2% 7% Last Result
95 2% 5%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.4% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.5%  
51 1.1% 99.0%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 3% 97%  
54 4% 94%  
55 4% 90%  
56 7% 86%  
57 8% 80%  
58 6% 72%  
59 10% 66%  
60 10% 56% Median
61 8% 46%  
62 9% 38%  
63 7% 29%  
64 5% 22%  
65 6% 17%  
66 3% 11%  
67 2% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.5%  
48 0.8% 98.9%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 4% 94%  
52 6% 90%  
53 5% 85%  
54 11% 79%  
55 8% 68%  
56 11% 60% Median
57 11% 49%  
58 8% 38%  
59 11% 30%  
60 5% 19%  
61 5% 15%  
62 4% 9%  
63 2% 6%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.5%  
44 0.9% 99.2%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 3% 94%  
48 6% 91%  
49 8% 86%  
50 7% 78%  
51 7% 71%  
52 9% 64%  
53 11% 54% Median
54 10% 43%  
55 8% 33%  
56 6% 25%  
57 6% 19%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.2% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 514 100% 504–523 501–526 499–527 494–532
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 446 100% 438–455 435–457 432–460 427–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 439 100% 429–449 426–452 424–454 418–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 406 100% 396–414 393–417 391–420 385–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 393 100% 384–403 381–406 379–408 373–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 386 100% 376–396 373–399 371–401 366–406
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 352 39% 343–362 340–365 337–368 332–373
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 319 0% 309–329 306–332 303–334 299–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 303 0% 295–313 292–316 289–318 285–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 300 0% 290–310 287–313 284–316 280–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 237–257 235–260 233–262 228–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 176 0% 172–180 171–182 168–191 157–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 173 0% 164–181 162–184 160–186 156–190

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 99.9%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.9%  
493 0.1% 99.8%  
494 0.2% 99.7%  
495 0.2% 99.5%  
496 0.3% 99.3%  
497 0.3% 99.0%  
498 0.7% 98.7%  
499 0.9% 98%  
500 0.8% 97%  
501 1.5% 96%  
502 2% 95%  
503 1.4% 93%  
504 2% 92%  
505 3% 89%  
506 3% 87%  
507 4% 83%  
508 3% 80%  
509 7% 76%  
510 4% 70%  
511 6% 66%  
512 4% 60%  
513 5% 56% Median
514 5% 51%  
515 6% 45%  
516 6% 39%  
517 4% 33%  
518 5% 29%  
519 4% 24%  
520 3% 20%  
521 5% 17%  
522 2% 13%  
523 3% 11%  
524 2% 8%  
525 1.2% 6%  
526 2% 5%  
527 0.8% 3%  
528 0.8% 2%  
529 0.4% 2%  
530 0.3% 1.2%  
531 0.3% 0.9%  
532 0.2% 0.6%  
533 0.2% 0.4%  
534 0.1% 0.2%  
535 0.1% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.7%  
427 0.2% 99.5%  
428 0.2% 99.4%  
429 0.3% 99.1%  
430 0.3% 98.8%  
431 0.5% 98.5%  
432 0.6% 98%  
433 0.6% 97%  
434 1.3% 97%  
435 1.2% 95%  
436 1.5% 94%  
437 2% 93%  
438 2% 90%  
439 3% 88%  
440 4% 86%  
441 4% 82%  
442 5% 78%  
443 6% 73%  
444 5% 67%  
445 8% 62%  
446 5% 54% Median
447 5% 49%  
448 6% 43%  
449 5% 38%  
450 6% 33%  
451 4% 27%  
452 5% 22%  
453 3% 18%  
454 3% 14%  
455 3% 11%  
456 2% 8%  
457 2% 6%  
458 1.1% 5%  
459 0.9% 3%  
460 0.6% 3%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.4% 1.5%  
463 0.3% 1.1%  
464 0.2% 0.8%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.2% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.4% 99.4%  
421 0.3% 99.0%  
422 0.5% 98.7%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 1.5% 97%  
426 0.8% 96%  
427 2% 95%  
428 2% 93%  
429 2% 91%  
430 3% 89%  
431 3% 86%  
432 4% 83%  
433 3% 80%  
434 5% 76%  
435 4% 72%  
436 6% 68%  
437 5% 62%  
438 4% 57%  
439 5% 53% Median
440 4% 47%  
441 6% 43%  
442 3% 37%  
443 6% 33%  
444 3% 27%  
445 4% 24%  
446 3% 20%  
447 3% 17%  
448 3% 14%  
449 2% 11%  
450 2% 9%  
451 1.3% 7%  
452 1.1% 5%  
453 0.9% 4%  
454 0.8% 3%  
455 0.7% 2%  
456 0.4% 2%  
457 0.5% 1.3%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.2% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.7%  
385 0.1% 99.6%  
386 0.2% 99.5%  
387 0.3% 99.3%  
388 0.2% 98.9%  
389 0.5% 98.7%  
390 0.6% 98%  
391 0.8% 98%  
392 0.9% 97%  
393 1.1% 96%  
394 1.3% 95%  
395 2% 94%  
396 3% 91%  
397 3% 88%  
398 3% 85%  
399 3% 83%  
400 4% 79%  
401 5% 75%  
402 4% 70%  
403 6% 65%  
404 5% 60%  
405 4% 54% Median
406 5% 50%  
407 7% 45%  
408 6% 39%  
409 5% 33%  
410 5% 27%  
411 4% 22%  
412 4% 19%  
413 3% 15%  
414 3% 12%  
415 2% 9%  
416 1.4% 7%  
417 1.4% 6%  
418 1.3% 4%  
419 0.6% 3%  
420 0.8% 3% Last Result
421 0.6% 2%  
422 0.3% 1.2%  
423 0.2% 0.9%  
424 0.2% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.1% 99.6%  
374 0.2% 99.5%  
375 0.2% 99.3%  
376 0.3% 99.1%  
377 0.4% 98.8%  
378 0.6% 98%  
379 1.0% 98%  
380 1.3% 97%  
381 2% 96%  
382 2% 94%  
383 2% 92%  
384 3% 90%  
385 2% 87%  
386 3% 85%  
387 3% 83%  
388 3% 80%  
389 5% 77%  
390 5% 72%  
391 5% 68%  
392 6% 63%  
393 8% 56% Median
394 7% 48%  
395 4% 41%  
396 5% 37%  
397 4% 33%  
398 3% 29%  
399 4% 26%  
400 3% 22%  
401 3% 19%  
402 3% 16%  
403 4% 13%  
404 2% 9%  
405 2% 7%  
406 2% 5%  
407 1.0% 4%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.5% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.4% 1.3%  
412 0.2% 0.9%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.2% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.5%  
367 0.3% 99.4%  
368 0.3% 99.1%  
369 0.6% 98.8%  
370 0.5% 98%  
371 0.7% 98%  
372 0.9% 97%  
373 1.3% 96%  
374 1.3% 95%  
375 3% 93%  
376 2% 91%  
377 3% 89%  
378 2% 86%  
379 4% 84%  
380 3% 80%  
381 5% 77%  
382 3% 72%  
383 6% 69%  
384 4% 62%  
385 7% 59%  
386 4% 52% Median
387 4% 48%  
388 5% 44%  
389 6% 40%  
390 5% 33%  
391 4% 28%  
392 3% 24%  
393 4% 21%  
394 3% 17%  
395 3% 14%  
396 2% 11%  
397 1.5% 9%  
398 1.3% 7%  
399 2% 6% Last Result
400 1.0% 4%  
401 0.9% 3%  
402 0.7% 2%  
403 0.5% 2%  
404 0.4% 1.4%  
405 0.3% 0.9%  
406 0.2% 0.6%  
407 0.1% 0.4%  
408 0.1% 0.3%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0.1% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0% 99.9%  
329 0.1% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.8%  
331 0.1% 99.7%  
332 0.2% 99.6%  
333 0.2% 99.4%  
334 0.3% 99.2%  
335 0.4% 98.9%  
336 0.4% 98%  
337 1.1% 98%  
338 0.8% 97%  
339 0.7% 96%  
340 2% 95% Last Result
341 1.5% 94%  
342 2% 92%  
343 3% 90%  
344 2% 87%  
345 3% 85%  
346 5% 82%  
347 3% 77%  
348 5% 74%  
349 5% 69%  
350 3% 64%  
351 6% 61%  
352 6% 55% Median
353 2% 49%  
354 8% 47%  
355 4% 39% Majority
356 6% 35%  
357 5% 29%  
358 2% 24%  
359 5% 22%  
360 3% 16%  
361 2% 14%  
362 3% 12%  
363 2% 9%  
364 1.0% 7%  
365 2% 6%  
366 1.0% 4%  
367 0.8% 3%  
368 0.9% 3%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.4% 1.4%  
371 0.3% 0.9%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0.3% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.3% 99.4%  
301 0.4% 99.2%  
302 0.6% 98.8%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 0.9% 97%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 1.2% 96%  
307 0.9% 95%  
308 2% 94%  
309 2% 92%  
310 4% 90%  
311 3% 86%  
312 4% 83%  
313 4% 79%  
314 3% 75%  
315 5% 72%  
316 4% 67%  
317 5% 64%  
318 5% 59%  
319 7% 54% Median
320 5% 47%  
321 8% 42%  
322 3% 35%  
323 4% 32%  
324 3% 28%  
325 4% 25%  
326 3% 21% Last Result
327 3% 18%  
328 4% 14%  
329 2% 11%  
330 3% 9%  
331 0.9% 6%  
332 1.3% 5%  
333 0.6% 4%  
334 1.0% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.2%  
338 0.3% 0.9%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0.2% 99.3%  
287 0.3% 99.1%  
288 0.6% 98.8%  
289 0.8% 98% Last Result
290 0.6% 97%  
291 1.3% 97%  
292 1.4% 96%  
293 1.4% 94%  
294 2% 93%  
295 3% 91%  
296 3% 88%  
297 4% 85%  
298 4% 81%  
299 5% 78%  
300 5% 73%  
301 6% 67%  
302 7% 61%  
303 5% 55% Median
304 4% 50%  
305 5% 46%  
306 6% 40%  
307 4% 35%  
308 5% 30%  
309 4% 25%  
310 3% 21%  
311 3% 17%  
312 3% 15%  
313 3% 12%  
314 2% 9%  
315 1.3% 6%  
316 1.1% 5%  
317 0.9% 4%  
318 0.8% 3%  
319 0.6% 2%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0.2% 1.3%  
322 0.3% 1.1%  
323 0.2% 0.7%  
324 0.1% 0.5%  
325 0.1% 0.4%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0.1% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.2% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.5%  
281 0.2% 99.3%  
282 0.4% 99.2%  
283 0.5% 98.7%  
284 0.8% 98%  
285 0.8% 97%  
286 1.1% 97%  
287 1.4% 96%  
288 1.3% 94%  
289 2% 93%  
290 2% 91%  
291 3% 89%  
292 3% 87%  
293 4% 84%  
294 4% 80%  
295 4% 76%  
296 4% 72%  
297 4% 68%  
298 5% 64%  
299 6% 58%  
300 4% 52% Last Result, Median
301 5% 48%  
302 5% 43%  
303 3% 38%  
304 5% 35%  
305 4% 29%  
306 3% 25%  
307 4% 22%  
308 3% 18%  
309 3% 15%  
310 2% 12%  
311 2% 10%  
312 2% 8%  
313 1.3% 6%  
314 1.2% 5%  
315 0.9% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.6% 2%  
318 0.3% 1.4%  
319 0.3% 1.1%  
320 0.2% 0.8%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.6%  
229 0.3% 99.4%  
230 0.4% 99.1%  
231 0.3% 98.7%  
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.9% 98%  
234 0.8% 97%  
235 2% 96%  
236 2% 94%  
237 2% 92%  
238 2% 90%  
239 2% 88%  
240 3% 85%  
241 5% 83%  
242 4% 77%  
243 6% 73%  
244 3% 67%  
245 4% 64%  
246 4% 59%  
247 5% 55% Median
248 5% 50%  
249 5% 44%  
250 6% 39%  
251 3% 33%  
252 4% 29%  
253 4% 25%  
254 4% 21%  
255 3% 18%  
256 4% 15%  
257 2% 11%  
258 2% 9%  
259 1.3% 7%  
260 2% 5%  
261 0.8% 4%  
262 0.8% 3%  
263 0.5% 2%  
264 0.4% 2%  
265 0.4% 1.3%  
266 0.3% 0.9%  
267 0.3% 0.6%  
268 0.1% 0.4%  
269 0.1% 0.3%  
270 0% 0.2%  
271 0.1% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0.1% 100%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.2% 99.8%  
157 0.3% 99.7%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.1%  
160 0.3% 98.7%  
161 0.3% 98%  
162 0.2% 98%  
163 0.2% 98%  
164 0.1% 98%  
165 0% 98%  
166 0% 98%  
167 0.1% 98%  
168 0.2% 98%  
169 0.4% 97%  
170 0.9% 97%  
171 2% 96%  
172 5% 94%  
173 7% 89%  
174 9% 83%  
175 11% 74%  
176 17% 62% Median
177 12% 46%  
178 11% 34%  
179 8% 23%  
180 6% 14%  
181 3% 8%  
182 1.4% 6%  
183 0.6% 4%  
184 0.2% 4%  
185 0.1% 3%  
186 0% 3%  
187 0% 3%  
188 0.1% 3%  
189 0.1% 3%  
190 0.2% 3%  
191 0.3% 3%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.5% 2%  
195 0.5% 1.2%  
196 0.3% 0.7%  
197 0.2% 0.5%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.2% 99.6%  
157 0.3% 99.4%  
158 0.4% 99.1%  
159 0.7% 98.7%  
160 0.9% 98%  
161 2% 97%  
162 2% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 2% 92%  
165 3% 89%  
166 3% 87%  
167 4% 84%  
168 4% 80%  
169 6% 76%  
170 8% 70%  
171 6% 62%  
172 6% 56%  
173 4% 50% Median
174 6% 46%  
175 5% 40%  
176 6% 35%  
177 5% 29%  
178 5% 24%  
179 3% 19%  
180 4% 16%  
181 2% 12%  
182 2% 9%  
183 1.3% 7%  
184 2% 6%  
185 0.9% 4%  
186 1.0% 3%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.4%  
189 0.3% 1.0%  
190 0.2% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations