Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 18–21 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.8–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–13.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 211 201–220 199–223 196–226 193–230
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 132 124–140 122–142 120–144 116–148
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 109–124 107–127 105–129 102–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 84–97 82–99 80–101 77–105
Die Linke 69 57 51–62 50–64 48–66 46–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 48–58 46–60 45–62 43–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 49 44–54 43–56 42–57 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.8%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.7%  
193 0.3% 99.5%  
194 0.4% 99.2%  
195 0.5% 98.8%  
196 0.9% 98%  
197 0.8% 97%  
198 1.0% 97%  
199 2% 96%  
200 2% 94% Last Result
201 2% 92%  
202 3% 90%  
203 3% 87%  
204 3% 84%  
205 3% 81%  
206 6% 78%  
207 5% 72%  
208 6% 67%  
209 5% 61%  
210 5% 56%  
211 3% 51% Median
212 6% 47%  
213 6% 42%  
214 4% 36%  
215 5% 32%  
216 5% 27%  
217 3% 22%  
218 4% 19%  
219 3% 15%  
220 3% 12%  
221 2% 9%  
222 1.4% 7%  
223 1.3% 6%  
224 0.9% 5%  
225 1.1% 4%  
226 0.6% 3%  
227 0.4% 2%  
228 0.6% 1.5%  
229 0.3% 0.9%  
230 0.2% 0.6%  
231 0.2% 0.5%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.3% 99.4%  
118 0.6% 99.2%  
119 0.5% 98.6%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 2% 96%  
123 2% 94%  
124 3% 92%  
125 4% 89%  
126 4% 85%  
127 4% 81%  
128 7% 77%  
129 5% 70%  
130 6% 65%  
131 6% 58%  
132 5% 52% Median
133 6% 47%  
134 6% 41%  
135 6% 34%  
136 5% 28%  
137 4% 23%  
138 5% 20%  
139 3% 15%  
140 3% 12%  
141 3% 9%  
142 2% 7%  
143 1.3% 5%  
144 1.2% 4%  
145 0.8% 2%  
146 0.4% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.2%  
148 0.3% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.7% 98.9%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 1.3% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 2% 94%  
109 3% 92%  
110 4% 89%  
111 3% 85%  
112 6% 81%  
113 5% 75%  
114 8% 70%  
115 5% 63%  
116 8% 58% Median
117 6% 50%  
118 7% 44%  
119 6% 37%  
120 5% 31%  
121 5% 26%  
122 4% 21%  
123 4% 17%  
124 3% 13%  
125 2% 9%  
126 2% 7%  
127 2% 5%  
128 0.9% 4%  
129 0.9% 3%  
130 0.6% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.3%  
132 0.3% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.5% 99.4%  
79 0.6% 98.9%  
80 1.1% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 94%  
84 4% 91%  
85 5% 87%  
86 5% 82%  
87 6% 78%  
88 7% 71%  
89 7% 64%  
90 7% 57%  
91 7% 50% Median
92 8% 44%  
93 7% 36%  
94 6% 29% Last Result
95 5% 24%  
96 5% 18%  
97 4% 14%  
98 3% 10%  
99 2% 7%  
100 1.4% 5%  
101 1.1% 3%  
102 0.7% 2%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.0%  
105 0.2% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.7% 99.3%  
48 1.2% 98.6%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 4% 93%  
52 5% 89%  
53 7% 83%  
54 8% 76%  
55 8% 68%  
56 9% 60%  
57 9% 52% Median
58 8% 42%  
59 7% 34%  
60 7% 27%  
61 5% 19%  
62 5% 15%  
63 4% 10%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.4% 4%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.0%  
69 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.2%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 3% 94%  
48 5% 91%  
49 7% 86%  
50 7% 79%  
51 9% 73%  
52 9% 63%  
53 8% 54% Median
54 8% 46%  
55 10% 38%  
56 8% 28%  
57 6% 20%  
58 4% 14%  
59 3% 10%  
60 2% 7%  
61 1.5% 4%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.5% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.4%  
41 1.3% 98.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 95%  
44 7% 92%  
45 7% 85%  
46 6% 77%  
47 10% 71%  
48 7% 61%  
49 8% 54% Median
50 9% 46%  
51 8% 37%  
52 9% 29%  
53 7% 21%  
54 4% 14%  
55 4% 10%  
56 2% 6%  
57 1.3% 3%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.4% 1.3%  
60 0.4% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 513 100% 504–522 501–524 498–527 494–532
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 445 100% 435–455 432–458 430–460 425–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 430 100% 420–440 417–443 414–445 409–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 404 100% 393–414 390–417 388–419 383–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 396 100% 385–406 383–409 380–412 376–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 99.9% 370–391 368–394 365–396 360–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 355 51% 344–365 341–368 339–370 334–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 303–323 300–326 298–329 292–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 305 0% 295–316 292–319 290–321 285–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 297 0% 288–308 285–311 282–313 277–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 238–259 236–261 234–264 229–268
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 165–182 162–185 160–187 156–192
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 165 0% 157–175 155–177 153–179 148–184

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 99.9%  
490 0.1% 99.9%  
491 0.1% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.8%  
493 0.1% 99.7%  
494 0.2% 99.6%  
495 0.4% 99.4%  
496 0.4% 99.0%  
497 0.6% 98.6%  
498 0.7% 98%  
499 0.8% 97%  
500 1.3% 97%  
501 1.1% 95%  
502 2% 94%  
503 2% 92%  
504 3% 90%  
505 4% 87%  
506 3% 83%  
507 3% 80%  
508 5% 77%  
509 4% 72%  
510 6% 68%  
511 5% 62%  
512 6% 57% Median
513 6% 50%  
514 4% 44%  
515 5% 40%  
516 5% 35%  
517 5% 30%  
518 5% 25%  
519 4% 20%  
520 3% 16%  
521 3% 13%  
522 2% 11%  
523 2% 9%  
524 2% 7%  
525 1.2% 5%  
526 1.2% 4%  
527 0.6% 3%  
528 0.6% 2%  
529 0.4% 1.4%  
530 0.2% 1.0%  
531 0.3% 0.8%  
532 0.1% 0.5%  
533 0.1% 0.4%  
534 0.1% 0.3%  
535 0% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.2%  
537 0% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.6%  
425 0.2% 99.5%  
426 0.3% 99.3%  
427 0.4% 99.0%  
428 0.4% 98.6%  
429 0.6% 98%  
430 1.1% 98%  
431 1.1% 97%  
432 1.0% 95%  
433 1.3% 94%  
434 2% 93%  
435 3% 91%  
436 2% 88%  
437 3% 87%  
438 4% 84%  
439 4% 79%  
440 2% 75%  
441 4% 72%  
442 6% 69%  
443 5% 63%  
444 4% 57%  
445 4% 54% Median
446 8% 49%  
447 4% 41%  
448 5% 37%  
449 4% 32%  
450 5% 28%  
451 4% 23%  
452 2% 19%  
453 2% 17%  
454 3% 15%  
455 3% 12%  
456 2% 9%  
457 1.2% 7%  
458 1.4% 6%  
459 1.4% 4%  
460 0.5% 3%  
461 0.6% 2%  
462 0.5% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.2%  
464 0.2% 0.8%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.3% 99.4%  
411 0.3% 99.2%  
412 0.4% 98.8%  
413 0.4% 98%  
414 0.6% 98%  
415 0.9% 97%  
416 1.1% 96%  
417 2% 95%  
418 2% 94%  
419 2% 92%  
420 2% 90%  
421 3% 88%  
422 4% 85%  
423 3% 82%  
424 5% 78%  
425 4% 74%  
426 5% 70%  
427 3% 65%  
428 6% 62%  
429 5% 56% Median
430 6% 51%  
431 4% 44%  
432 4% 40%  
433 5% 37%  
434 5% 32%  
435 4% 27%  
436 4% 23%  
437 3% 19%  
438 2% 16%  
439 3% 14%  
440 2% 10%  
441 2% 8%  
442 1.3% 6%  
443 1.1% 5%  
444 1.1% 4%  
445 0.7% 3%  
446 0.5% 2%  
447 0.5% 2%  
448 0.3% 1.1%  
449 0.2% 0.8%  
450 0.2% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.4%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.5%  
384 0.2% 99.3%  
385 0.3% 99.1%  
386 0.5% 98.8%  
387 0.6% 98%  
388 0.8% 98%  
389 0.7% 97%  
390 2% 96%  
391 0.9% 95%  
392 2% 94%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 89%  
395 2% 87%  
396 3% 85%  
397 5% 82%  
398 4% 77%  
399 4% 74%  
400 6% 70%  
401 4% 65%  
402 4% 60%  
403 5% 56%  
404 6% 51% Median
405 6% 45%  
406 4% 39%  
407 3% 36%  
408 5% 32%  
409 5% 27%  
410 3% 22%  
411 3% 19%  
412 3% 16%  
413 2% 13%  
414 2% 11%  
415 2% 9%  
416 2% 7%  
417 1.2% 5%  
418 0.7% 4%  
419 1.0% 3%  
420 0.7% 2% Last Result
421 0.4% 2%  
422 0.3% 1.2%  
423 0.3% 0.9%  
424 0.2% 0.6%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.3% 99.5%  
377 0.4% 99.2%  
378 0.4% 98.9%  
379 0.5% 98.5%  
380 0.7% 98%  
381 0.7% 97%  
382 1.0% 97%  
383 1.2% 96%  
384 2% 94%  
385 2% 92%  
386 2% 90%  
387 3% 87%  
388 3% 84%  
389 3% 82%  
390 3% 79%  
391 4% 76%  
392 4% 72%  
393 6% 68%  
394 6% 62%  
395 5% 57%  
396 6% 51% Median
397 3% 46%  
398 4% 42%  
399 4% 38%  
400 4% 34%  
401 5% 30%  
402 4% 24%  
403 4% 20%  
404 3% 16%  
405 2% 13%  
406 2% 11%  
407 2% 10%  
408 1.1% 8%  
409 2% 7%  
410 1.3% 5%  
411 0.9% 4%  
412 0.8% 3%  
413 0.5% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.4%  
415 0.2% 1.1%  
416 0.1% 0.8%  
417 0.2% 0.7%  
418 0.2% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.2% 99.7%  
360 0.2% 99.5%  
361 0.3% 99.3%  
362 0.2% 99.0%  
363 0.5% 98.9%  
364 0.8% 98%  
365 1.0% 98%  
366 0.6% 97%  
367 0.7% 96%  
368 2% 95%  
369 3% 94%  
370 2% 91%  
371 1.0% 89%  
372 3% 88%  
373 4% 85%  
374 5% 81%  
375 2% 76%  
376 2% 75%  
377 6% 72%  
378 6% 66%  
379 5% 60%  
380 5% 55% Median
381 3% 51%  
382 9% 48%  
383 5% 39%  
384 4% 34%  
385 3% 30%  
386 5% 28%  
387 5% 23%  
388 3% 18%  
389 1.3% 15%  
390 2% 14%  
391 3% 11%  
392 2% 9%  
393 0.9% 7%  
394 1.1% 6%  
395 1.2% 5%  
396 1.0% 3%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.4% 1.5% Last Result
400 0.3% 1.1%  
401 0.2% 0.8%  
402 0.1% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.6%  
335 0.3% 99.4%  
336 0.3% 99.1%  
337 0.5% 98.8%  
338 0.5% 98%  
339 0.9% 98%  
340 0.8% 97% Last Result
341 1.2% 96%  
342 2% 95%  
343 1.5% 93%  
344 2% 92%  
345 2% 89%  
346 3% 87%  
347 3% 84%  
348 4% 82%  
349 5% 78%  
350 6% 74%  
351 4% 68%  
352 4% 64%  
353 5% 60%  
354 5% 55%  
355 4% 51% Median, Majority
356 6% 46%  
357 5% 40%  
358 5% 36%  
359 4% 31%  
360 4% 27%  
361 4% 23%  
362 3% 19%  
363 2% 16%  
364 3% 14%  
365 2% 11%  
366 2% 9%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.9% 5%  
369 1.1% 4%  
370 0.8% 3%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.5% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.4%  
374 0.2% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.7%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.4%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.2%  
295 0.4% 98.9%  
296 0.6% 98.6%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 1.0% 98%  
299 1.1% 97%  
300 1.2% 95%  
301 2% 94%  
302 2% 93%  
303 2% 90%  
304 2% 88%  
305 3% 86%  
306 4% 83%  
307 5% 79%  
308 4% 75%  
309 5% 70%  
310 4% 66%  
311 4% 62%  
312 6% 58%  
313 4% 52% Median
314 5% 48%  
315 6% 42%  
316 4% 36%  
317 4% 32%  
318 3% 28%  
319 3% 25%  
320 4% 22%  
321 2% 18%  
322 4% 15%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.2% 7%  
326 1.3% 6% Last Result
327 1.0% 5%  
328 1.2% 4%  
329 0.8% 3%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.3% 1.4%  
332 0.2% 1.1%  
333 0.2% 0.8%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0.3% 99.4%  
287 0.3% 99.1%  
288 0.4% 98.8%  
289 0.7% 98% Last Result
290 1.0% 98%  
291 0.7% 97%  
292 1.2% 96%  
293 2% 95%  
294 2% 93%  
295 2% 91%  
296 2% 89%  
297 3% 87%  
298 3% 84%  
299 3% 81%  
300 5% 78%  
301 5% 73%  
302 3% 68%  
303 4% 64%  
304 6% 61%  
305 6% 55% Median
306 5% 49%  
307 4% 44%  
308 4% 40%  
309 6% 35%  
310 4% 30%  
311 4% 26%  
312 5% 23%  
313 3% 18%  
314 2% 15%  
315 2% 13%  
316 2% 11%  
317 2% 9%  
318 0.9% 6%  
319 2% 5%  
320 0.7% 4%  
321 0.8% 3%  
322 0.6% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.2%  
325 0.2% 0.9%  
326 0.2% 0.7%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.3%  
280 0.4% 99.0%  
281 0.6% 98.6%  
282 1.0% 98%  
283 1.2% 97%  
284 0.6% 96%  
285 0.7% 95%  
286 1.3% 94%  
287 2% 93%  
288 3% 91%  
289 4% 88%  
290 4% 84%  
291 3% 80%  
292 2% 77%  
293 3% 75%  
294 5% 72%  
295 4% 66%  
296 8% 62%  
297 7% 54% Median
298 3% 47%  
299 4% 44%  
300 4% 40% Last Result
301 4% 36%  
302 3% 33%  
303 6% 30%  
304 6% 24%  
305 3% 18%  
306 3% 15%  
307 1.4% 12%  
308 1.3% 11%  
309 1.2% 9%  
310 2% 8%  
311 2% 6%  
312 1.0% 4%  
313 1.0% 3%  
314 0.7% 2%  
315 0.3% 2%  
316 0.2% 1.3%  
317 0.3% 1.1%  
318 0.4% 0.8%  
319 0.2% 0.5%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.9%  
228 0.2% 99.8%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.3% 99.4%  
231 0.4% 99.0%  
232 0.3% 98.6%  
233 0.3% 98%  
234 0.5% 98%  
235 1.3% 97%  
236 2% 96%  
237 2% 94%  
238 3% 92%  
239 2% 89%  
240 2% 87%  
241 2% 86%  
242 3% 84%  
243 4% 81%  
244 6% 77%  
245 8% 70%  
246 3% 62%  
247 3% 59%  
248 2% 56% Median
249 5% 53%  
250 7% 49%  
251 6% 42%  
252 7% 36%  
253 5% 29%  
254 3% 24%  
255 3% 21%  
256 2% 18%  
257 3% 17%  
258 3% 13%  
259 3% 11%  
260 2% 8%  
261 1.1% 6%  
262 0.9% 4%  
263 0.5% 4%  
264 0.8% 3%  
265 0.6% 2%  
266 0.7% 2%  
267 0.4% 1.0%  
268 0.2% 0.7%  
269 0.1% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.2% 99.8%  
156 0.2% 99.6%  
157 0.3% 99.4%  
158 0.6% 99.0%  
159 0.4% 98%  
160 1.0% 98%  
161 1.1% 97%  
162 1.3% 96%  
163 2% 95%  
164 2% 92%  
165 3% 90%  
166 4% 88%  
167 3% 84%  
168 5% 81%  
169 5% 76%  
170 4% 71%  
171 6% 66%  
172 5% 60%  
173 6% 55% Median
174 6% 49%  
175 5% 43%  
176 5% 38%  
177 5% 33%  
178 5% 28%  
179 4% 23%  
180 4% 19%  
181 3% 15%  
182 3% 12%  
183 2% 10%  
184 2% 7%  
185 1.0% 6%  
186 1.2% 4%  
187 1.1% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.5% 2%  
190 0.3% 1.1%  
191 0.2% 0.8%  
192 0.3% 0.7%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.3% 99.4%  
150 0.3% 99.0%  
151 0.3% 98.7%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 1.0% 98%  
154 0.9% 97%  
155 2% 96%  
156 2% 94%  
157 3% 92%  
158 4% 89%  
159 4% 85%  
160 4% 82%  
161 5% 78%  
162 5% 72%  
163 6% 67%  
164 6% 61%  
165 7% 56% Median
166 6% 49%  
167 6% 43%  
168 4% 37%  
169 4% 33%  
170 4% 28%  
171 4% 25%  
172 3% 21%  
173 3% 17%  
174 3% 14%  
175 3% 11%  
176 2% 8%  
177 1.4% 6%  
178 1.3% 5%  
179 1.1% 4%  
180 0.8% 2%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.2%  
183 0.3% 0.9%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations