Opinion Poll by Kantar, 17–23 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.8–30.8% 27.3–31.2% 27.0–31.6% 26.3–32.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.4% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.1% 15.6–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.2% 14.5–17.6% 14.2–17.9% 13.7–18.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.4% 9.5–12.7% 9.1–13.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–9.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.8–9.5% 6.4–10.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.2–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 217 207–229 203–233 201–236 196–244
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 125–144 123–147 120–150 116–155
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 119 110–129 108–131 105–134 102–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 74–91 72–93 71–95 67–99
Die Linke 69 60 53–67 52–69 50–71 47–75
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 44–57 43–59 42–61 39–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–53 0–55 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.2% 99.7%  
196 0.2% 99.5%  
197 0.3% 99.4%  
198 0.4% 99.1%  
199 0.6% 98.6%  
200 0.4% 98% Last Result
201 0.7% 98%  
202 0.9% 97%  
203 1.0% 96%  
204 1.2% 95%  
205 2% 94%  
206 2% 92%  
207 3% 90%  
208 3% 87%  
209 2% 84%  
210 3% 82%  
211 4% 78%  
212 3% 75%  
213 3% 72%  
214 4% 69%  
215 5% 65%  
216 5% 59%  
217 5% 55% Median
218 5% 50%  
219 4% 44%  
220 3% 40%  
221 4% 37%  
222 4% 34%  
223 3% 30%  
224 3% 27%  
225 4% 23%  
226 3% 19%  
227 3% 17%  
228 3% 13%  
229 1.5% 11%  
230 1.3% 9%  
231 1.3% 8%  
232 1.1% 7%  
233 0.8% 6%  
234 1.0% 5%  
235 0.8% 4%  
236 0.6% 3%  
237 0.6% 2%  
238 0.4% 2%  
239 0.3% 1.4%  
240 0.2% 1.1%  
241 0.2% 0.9%  
242 0.1% 0.8%  
243 0.1% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.1% 0.4%  
246 0% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0.1% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.3% 99.4%  
118 0.4% 99.1%  
119 0.5% 98.7%  
120 0.9% 98%  
121 0.9% 97%  
122 1.3% 96%  
123 2% 95%  
124 2% 93%  
125 3% 91%  
126 3% 89%  
127 4% 86%  
128 4% 82%  
129 3% 78%  
130 4% 75%  
131 5% 71%  
132 5% 66%  
133 5% 60%  
134 5% 55% Median
135 5% 50%  
136 6% 45%  
137 5% 39%  
138 4% 34%  
139 5% 29%  
140 4% 25%  
141 4% 21%  
142 3% 17%  
143 2% 14%  
144 3% 12%  
145 2% 10%  
146 2% 8%  
147 1.4% 6%  
148 1.1% 5%  
149 0.8% 4%  
150 0.7% 3%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.4% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.2%  
154 0.2% 0.8%  
155 0.2% 0.6%  
156 0.1% 0.4%  
157 0.1% 0.3%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.2% 99.7%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.4% 99.2%  
104 0.5% 98.8%  
105 0.8% 98%  
106 0.9% 97%  
107 1.2% 97%  
108 1.3% 95%  
109 2% 94%  
110 3% 92%  
111 3% 89%  
112 4% 86%  
113 4% 82%  
114 4% 78%  
115 5% 74%  
116 5% 70%  
117 5% 65%  
118 5% 60%  
119 6% 55% Median
120 6% 50%  
121 6% 44%  
122 6% 38%  
123 4% 32%  
124 4% 28%  
125 4% 24%  
126 3% 20%  
127 3% 16%  
128 3% 13%  
129 3% 11%  
130 2% 8%  
131 1.4% 6%  
132 1.1% 5%  
133 0.8% 4%  
134 0.8% 3%  
135 0.5% 2%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.2%  
138 0.2% 0.8%  
139 0.1% 0.6%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.3%  
142 0% 0.2%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 0.6% 99.1%  
70 0.8% 98.5%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 94%  
74 3% 93%  
75 4% 90%  
76 4% 86%  
77 5% 82%  
78 4% 77%  
79 6% 72%  
80 6% 66%  
81 7% 60%  
82 6% 54% Median
83 6% 48%  
84 6% 41%  
85 6% 36%  
86 5% 30%  
87 4% 25%  
88 6% 21%  
89 3% 16%  
90 3% 13%  
91 2% 10%  
92 2% 8%  
93 1.2% 5%  
94 1.0% 4% Last Result
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.3% 1.3%  
98 0.3% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 0.7% 99.0%  
50 1.2% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 2% 95%  
53 3% 93%  
54 4% 90%  
55 5% 86%  
56 6% 81%  
57 7% 75%  
58 8% 68%  
59 8% 61%  
60 8% 53% Median
61 7% 45%  
62 7% 38%  
63 6% 32%  
64 5% 25%  
65 5% 20%  
66 4% 15%  
67 3% 11%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.5% 4%  
71 0.8% 3%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.2%  
41 0.8% 98.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 4% 93%  
45 4% 89%  
46 5% 85% Last Result
47 6% 80%  
48 8% 74%  
49 8% 67%  
50 7% 58%  
51 6% 52% Median
52 8% 45%  
53 8% 37%  
54 7% 29%  
55 5% 22%  
56 4% 17%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 1.2% 4%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 0.9% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 0% 97%  
8 0% 97%  
9 0% 97%  
10 0% 97%  
11 0% 97%  
12 0% 97%  
13 0% 97%  
14 0% 97%  
15 0% 97%  
16 0% 97%  
17 0% 97%  
18 0% 97%  
19 0% 97%  
20 0% 97%  
21 0% 97%  
22 0% 97%  
23 0% 97%  
24 0% 97%  
25 0% 97%  
26 0% 97%  
27 0% 97%  
28 0% 97%  
29 0% 97%  
30 0% 97%  
31 0% 97%  
32 0% 97%  
33 0% 97%  
34 0% 97%  
35 0% 97%  
36 0% 97%  
37 0.4% 97%  
38 2% 96%  
39 4% 94%  
40 5% 90%  
41 6% 85%  
42 7% 79%  
43 8% 72%  
44 10% 64%  
45 9% 54% Median
46 7% 45%  
47 7% 38%  
48 7% 31%  
49 6% 24%  
50 6% 18%  
51 4% 12%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.4% 4%  
55 1.0% 3%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.4% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 522 100% 510–534 508–538 505–552 500–566
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 448 100% 435–459 432–462 427–466 419–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 432 100% 419–444 415–448 412–450 403–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 403 100% 391–415 388–420 384–426 378–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 395 99.9% 382–407 378–411 374–414 364–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 388 100% 375–401 372–405 369–411 363–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 350 35% 338–364 335–368 332–373 326–385
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 314 0.1% 302–327 298–331 295–335 290–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 313 0% 300–326 296–329 290–332 276–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 299 0% 285–311 281–314 275–317 260–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 242–266 239–270 236–274 231–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 169–190 166–194 163–197 159–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 153–175 149–178 133–180 119–185

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 99.9%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.8%  
499 0.2% 99.7%  
500 0.2% 99.5%  
501 0.3% 99.3%  
502 0.4% 99.0%  
503 0.4% 98.7%  
504 0.5% 98%  
505 0.6% 98%  
506 0.7% 97%  
507 1.2% 96%  
508 1.4% 95%  
509 2% 94%  
510 2% 92%  
511 2% 90%  
512 2% 88%  
513 3% 86%  
514 3% 83%  
515 3% 80%  
516 4% 77%  
517 3% 73%  
518 5% 70%  
519 4% 66%  
520 5% 61%  
521 5% 56% Median
522 4% 51%  
523 5% 47%  
524 4% 42%  
525 3% 37%  
526 4% 34%  
527 3% 30%  
528 4% 27%  
529 4% 23%  
530 3% 19%  
531 2% 16%  
532 2% 14%  
533 2% 12%  
534 2% 10%  
535 1.5% 9%  
536 0.7% 7%  
537 1.0% 6%  
538 0.5% 5%  
539 0.5% 5%  
540 0.5% 4%  
541 0.3% 4%  
542 0.2% 4%  
543 0.1% 3%  
544 0.1% 3%  
545 0.1% 3%  
546 0.1% 3%  
547 0.1% 3%  
548 0.1% 3%  
549 0.1% 3%  
550 0.1% 3%  
551 0.1% 3%  
552 0.1% 3%  
553 0.1% 2%  
554 0.2% 2%  
555 0.1% 2%  
556 0.1% 2%  
557 0.2% 2%  
558 0.1% 2%  
559 0.1% 1.5%  
560 0.1% 1.3%  
561 0.1% 1.2%  
562 0.2% 1.1%  
563 0.1% 0.9%  
564 0.2% 0.8%  
565 0.1% 0.6%  
566 0.1% 0.5%  
567 0.1% 0.4%  
568 0.1% 0.3%  
569 0% 0.3%  
570 0% 0.2%  
571 0.1% 0.2%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.1% 99.4%  
421 0.1% 99.4%  
422 0.2% 99.3%  
423 0.3% 99.1%  
424 0.2% 98.8%  
425 0.4% 98.6%  
426 0.4% 98%  
427 0.4% 98%  
428 0.4% 97%  
429 0.6% 97%  
430 0.6% 96%  
431 0.7% 96%  
432 1.3% 95%  
433 1.3% 94%  
434 2% 92%  
435 1.4% 91%  
436 2% 89%  
437 1.3% 87%  
438 2% 86%  
439 3% 84%  
440 3% 81%  
441 4% 78%  
442 4% 74%  
443 3% 70%  
444 4% 66%  
445 3% 63%  
446 3% 59%  
447 5% 56% Median
448 5% 51%  
449 6% 46%  
450 4% 41%  
451 4% 37%  
452 5% 33%  
453 3% 27%  
454 3% 24%  
455 2% 22%  
456 3% 20%  
457 3% 16%  
458 2% 14%  
459 3% 12%  
460 2% 9%  
461 2% 7%  
462 0.7% 6%  
463 0.8% 5%  
464 0.8% 4%  
465 0.7% 3%  
466 0.8% 3%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.3% 1.3%  
469 0.2% 1.0%  
470 0.2% 0.8%  
471 0.1% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.4%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0.1% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.8%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.6%  
403 0.1% 99.5%  
404 0.1% 99.5%  
405 0.1% 99.4%  
406 0.3% 99.2%  
407 0.2% 98.9%  
408 0.2% 98.8%  
409 0.3% 98.6%  
410 0.3% 98%  
411 0.3% 98%  
412 0.5% 98%  
413 0.5% 97%  
414 0.8% 97%  
415 1.3% 96%  
416 0.7% 95%  
417 1.1% 94%  
418 2% 93%  
419 1.3% 91%  
420 2% 90%  
421 2% 88%  
422 2% 86%  
423 3% 84%  
424 4% 81%  
425 3% 78%  
426 3% 75%  
427 3% 72%  
428 3% 69%  
429 4% 66%  
430 3% 61%  
431 3% 58%  
432 6% 55% Median
433 6% 50%  
434 4% 44%  
435 4% 40%  
436 4% 37%  
437 3% 33%  
438 3% 30%  
439 3% 27%  
440 5% 24%  
441 3% 20%  
442 2% 16%  
443 2% 14%  
444 1.4% 11%  
445 2% 10%  
446 2% 8%  
447 2% 7%  
448 0.8% 5%  
449 0.8% 4%  
450 1.0% 3%  
451 0.3% 2%  
452 0.6% 2%  
453 0.4% 1.4%  
454 0.2% 1.0%  
455 0.2% 0.8%  
456 0.1% 0.6%  
457 0.2% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.7%  
378 0.1% 99.6%  
379 0.2% 99.5%  
380 0.3% 99.3%  
381 0.2% 99.0%  
382 0.4% 98.8%  
383 0.6% 98%  
384 0.3% 98%  
385 0.7% 97%  
386 0.7% 97%  
387 1.0% 96%  
388 1.2% 95%  
389 2% 94%  
390 2% 92%  
391 2% 90%  
392 2% 88%  
393 2% 86%  
394 3% 84%  
395 3% 80%  
396 3% 77%  
397 4% 74%  
398 3% 71%  
399 3% 67%  
400 5% 65%  
401 4% 60%  
402 4% 55% Median
403 5% 51%  
404 4% 46%  
405 3% 43%  
406 4% 39%  
407 4% 35%  
408 4% 31%  
409 3% 27%  
410 3% 24%  
411 2% 21%  
412 3% 18%  
413 2% 15%  
414 2% 14%  
415 2% 12%  
416 1.1% 10%  
417 1.2% 9%  
418 1.0% 8%  
419 0.8% 7%  
420 0.9% 6%  
421 0.6% 5%  
422 0.4% 4%  
423 0.5% 4%  
424 0.3% 3%  
425 0.4% 3%  
426 0.2% 3%  
427 0.2% 2%  
428 0.1% 2%  
429 0.1% 2%  
430 0.2% 2%  
431 0.1% 2%  
432 0.2% 2%  
433 0.1% 1.4%  
434 0.1% 1.3%  
435 0.1% 1.1%  
436 0.2% 1.1%  
437 0.1% 0.9%  
438 0% 0.8%  
439 0.1% 0.8%  
440 0.1% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.4%  
443 0.1% 0.3%  
444 0.1% 0.3%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.7%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.1% 99.5%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.2% 99.2%  
368 0.1% 99.1%  
369 0.2% 98.9%  
370 0.1% 98.7%  
371 0.3% 98.6%  
372 0.3% 98%  
373 0.3% 98%  
374 0.4% 98%  
375 0.6% 97%  
376 0.4% 97%  
377 0.6% 96%  
378 0.8% 96%  
379 0.8% 95%  
380 0.9% 94%  
381 1.3% 93%  
382 2% 92%  
383 1.2% 90%  
384 2% 89%  
385 3% 87%  
386 2% 83%  
387 3% 81%  
388 2% 78%  
389 4% 76%  
390 4% 72%  
391 3% 68%  
392 5% 64%  
393 4% 60%  
394 5% 56%  
395 3% 51% Median
396 4% 47%  
397 3% 44%  
398 4% 40%  
399 3% 37%  
400 2% 34%  
401 4% 31%  
402 3% 27%  
403 2% 23%  
404 4% 21%  
405 3% 17%  
406 3% 15%  
407 2% 12%  
408 2% 10%  
409 1.1% 8%  
410 1.3% 7%  
411 1.3% 5%  
412 0.7% 4%  
413 0.7% 3%  
414 0.8% 3%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.3% 1.2%  
418 0.2% 0.9%  
419 0.2% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.3% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.2%  
366 0.2% 98.9%  
367 0.4% 98.6%  
368 0.7% 98%  
369 1.2% 98%  
370 0.6% 96%  
371 0.5% 96%  
372 0.8% 95%  
373 2% 94%  
374 2% 93%  
375 2% 91%  
376 2% 88%  
377 2% 87%  
378 2% 85%  
379 4% 83%  
380 4% 79%  
381 2% 76%  
382 3% 73%  
383 5% 70%  
384 4% 66%  
385 3% 61%  
386 3% 58%  
387 5% 55% Median
388 4% 51%  
389 5% 47%  
390 4% 42%  
391 3% 38%  
392 4% 35%  
393 3% 31%  
394 4% 28%  
395 3% 24%  
396 1.3% 21%  
397 3% 20%  
398 4% 17%  
399 2% 14% Last Result
400 2% 12%  
401 1.0% 10%  
402 1.5% 9%  
403 0.7% 8%  
404 1.4% 7%  
405 0.8% 6%  
406 0.6% 5%  
407 0.3% 4%  
408 0.7% 4%  
409 0.4% 3%  
410 0.3% 3%  
411 0.2% 3%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.3% 2%  
416 0.1% 1.5%  
417 0.1% 1.3%  
418 0.2% 1.2%  
419 0.1% 1.0%  
420 0.1% 1.0%  
421 0.2% 0.9%  
422 0.1% 0.7%  
423 0.1% 0.6%  
424 0% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.4%  
427 0% 0.3%  
428 0% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.9%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.2% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.5%  
327 0.2% 99.4%  
328 0.2% 99.2%  
329 0.4% 99.1%  
330 0.3% 98.6%  
331 0.5% 98%  
332 0.4% 98%  
333 0.9% 97%  
334 1.0% 97%  
335 1.0% 96%  
336 2% 95%  
337 2% 93%  
338 2% 91%  
339 1.3% 89%  
340 2% 88% Last Result
341 3% 86%  
342 4% 83%  
343 3% 79%  
344 3% 76%  
345 3% 73%  
346 5% 70%  
347 5% 66%  
348 2% 61%  
349 6% 58%  
350 3% 52% Median
351 4% 49%  
352 3% 45%  
353 4% 41%  
354 3% 37%  
355 3% 35% Majority
356 4% 32%  
357 3% 27%  
358 3% 25%  
359 2% 21%  
360 3% 19%  
361 2% 16%  
362 3% 14%  
363 1.2% 12%  
364 2% 10%  
365 2% 9%  
366 0.9% 7%  
367 1.0% 6%  
368 0.6% 5%  
369 0.9% 5%  
370 0.5% 4%  
371 0.5% 4%  
372 0.4% 3%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.3% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.2% 1.5%  
378 0.2% 1.3%  
379 0.1% 1.1%  
380 0.1% 1.0%  
381 0.1% 0.9%  
382 0.1% 0.8%  
383 0.1% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.6%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.4%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.4%  
292 0.3% 99.1%  
293 0.4% 98.8%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.8% 98%  
296 0.7% 97%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 1.3% 96%  
299 1.3% 95%  
300 1.1% 93%  
301 2% 92%  
302 2% 90%  
303 3% 88%  
304 3% 85%  
305 4% 83%  
306 2% 79%  
307 3% 77%  
308 4% 73%  
309 2% 69%  
310 3% 66%  
311 4% 63%  
312 3% 60%  
313 4% 56% Median
314 3% 53%  
315 5% 49%  
316 4% 44%  
317 5% 40%  
318 3% 36%  
319 4% 32%  
320 4% 28%  
321 2% 24%  
322 3% 22%  
323 2% 19%  
324 3% 17%  
325 2% 13%  
326 1.2% 11%  
327 2% 10%  
328 1.3% 8%  
329 0.9% 7%  
330 0.8% 6%  
331 0.8% 5%  
332 0.6% 4%  
333 0.4% 4%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.1% 1.4%  
340 0.2% 1.3%  
341 0.1% 1.1%  
342 0.2% 0.9%  
343 0.1% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.2% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 98.9%  
283 0.1% 98.8%  
284 0.1% 98.7%  
285 0.2% 98.6%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.3% 98%  
291 0.2% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.4% 97%  
294 0.5% 96%  
295 0.6% 96%  
296 0.9% 95%  
297 1.4% 94%  
298 1.1% 93%  
299 1.2% 92%  
300 1.2% 90%  
301 1.5% 89%  
302 2% 88%  
303 2% 86%  
304 3% 84%  
305 3% 81%  
306 4% 77%  
307 3% 74%  
308 3% 71%  
309 3% 68%  
310 3% 65%  
311 5% 62%  
312 5% 57%  
313 6% 52% Median
314 3% 46%  
315 3% 43%  
316 3% 39%  
317 3% 37%  
318 4% 33%  
319 4% 30%  
320 3% 26%  
321 3% 22%  
322 4% 19%  
323 2% 15%  
324 2% 13%  
325 1.1% 11%  
326 2% 10% Last Result
327 2% 9%  
328 1.4% 7%  
329 1.5% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.6% 3%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.3% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.3%  
336 0.2% 0.9%  
337 0.3% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0% 99.8%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0.1% 99.8%  
258 0.1% 99.7%  
259 0.1% 99.6%  
260 0.1% 99.6%  
261 0.1% 99.5%  
262 0.1% 99.4%  
263 0.1% 99.3%  
264 0.1% 99.3%  
265 0.1% 99.2%  
266 0.1% 99.1%  
267 0.1% 99.0%  
268 0.1% 98.9%  
269 0.3% 98.8%  
270 0.2% 98.6%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0.3% 98%  
273 0.2% 98%  
274 0.2% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.3% 97%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.4% 97%  
279 0.5% 96%  
280 0.6% 96%  
281 0.7% 95%  
282 0.8% 94%  
283 1.0% 94%  
284 2% 93%  
285 1.3% 91%  
286 2% 90%  
287 2% 88%  
288 3% 86%  
289 2% 83%  
290 3% 81%  
291 3% 78%  
292 2% 75%  
293 3% 73%  
294 3% 70%  
295 4% 66%  
296 3% 63%  
297 4% 59%  
298 4% 55% Median
299 4% 51%  
300 4% 47% Last Result
301 5% 43%  
302 4% 38%  
303 4% 34%  
304 3% 30%  
305 5% 27%  
306 3% 23%  
307 2% 19%  
308 4% 18%  
309 2% 14%  
310 2% 12%  
311 2% 10%  
312 1.5% 8%  
313 1.3% 7%  
314 1.2% 5%  
315 0.7% 4%  
316 0.8% 4%  
317 0.5% 3%  
318 0.6% 2%  
319 0.3% 2%  
320 0.4% 1.3%  
321 0.2% 1.0%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.2% 0.6%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.2% 99.7%  
231 0.1% 99.5%  
232 0.3% 99.4%  
233 0.4% 99.1%  
234 0.4% 98.7%  
235 0.7% 98%  
236 0.5% 98%  
237 1.2% 97%  
238 0.7% 96%  
239 1.5% 95%  
240 1.1% 94%  
241 2% 93%  
242 2% 91%  
243 2% 89%  
244 3% 87%  
245 3% 83%  
246 4% 80%  
247 3% 77%  
248 3% 74%  
249 4% 71%  
250 3% 67%  
251 4% 64%  
252 4% 60%  
253 4% 57% Median
254 4% 52%  
255 4% 48%  
256 6% 45%  
257 3% 39%  
258 5% 35%  
259 4% 31%  
260 3% 27%  
261 4% 24%  
262 2% 20%  
263 3% 18%  
264 2% 15%  
265 3% 13%  
266 2% 11%  
267 2% 9%  
268 1.4% 7%  
269 1.0% 6%  
270 0.8% 5%  
271 0.5% 4%  
272 0.7% 4%  
273 0.6% 3%  
274 0.4% 3%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.3% 2%  
277 0.2% 1.4%  
278 0.2% 1.2%  
279 0.2% 1.0%  
280 0.1% 0.8%  
281 0.1% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.5%  
283 0% 0.4%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0.2% 99.5%  
160 0.4% 99.3%  
161 0.4% 98.9%  
162 0.5% 98.6%  
163 0.9% 98%  
164 0.6% 97%  
165 1.3% 97%  
166 1.1% 95%  
167 2% 94%  
168 2% 93%  
169 2% 91%  
170 3% 89%  
171 3% 86%  
172 3% 83%  
173 3% 80%  
174 4% 77%  
175 5% 72%  
176 6% 68%  
177 4% 62%  
178 3% 58%  
179 5% 55% Median
180 6% 50%  
181 4% 44%  
182 5% 40%  
183 5% 35%  
184 3% 30%  
185 4% 27%  
186 3% 23%  
187 3% 20%  
188 3% 17%  
189 2% 14%  
190 3% 12%  
191 2% 9%  
192 1.3% 8%  
193 1.0% 6%  
194 1.2% 5%  
195 0.8% 4%  
196 0.8% 3%  
197 0.4% 3%  
198 0.5% 2%  
199 0.2% 2%  
200 0.4% 1.4%  
201 0.2% 0.9%  
202 0.1% 0.8%  
203 0.1% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.4%  
206 0% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.7%  
117 0% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.6%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0.1% 99.4%  
122 0.2% 99.2%  
123 0.1% 99.1%  
124 0.1% 98.9%  
125 0.2% 98.8%  
126 0.1% 98.6%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0.2% 98%  
129 0.2% 98%  
130 0.2% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 0.2% 98%  
133 0.1% 98%  
134 0.2% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0% 97%  
137 0.1% 97%  
138 0.1% 97%  
139 0.1% 97%  
140 0.1% 97%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0.1% 97%  
143 0.1% 97%  
144 0.2% 97%  
145 0.1% 96%  
146 0.3% 96%  
147 0.4% 96%  
148 0.4% 96%  
149 0.9% 95%  
150 0.7% 94%  
151 1.3% 94%  
152 1.0% 92%  
153 2% 91%  
154 3% 90%  
155 2% 87%  
156 3% 85%  
157 3% 82%  
158 3% 79%  
159 4% 76%  
160 4% 71%  
161 4% 67%  
162 4% 63%  
163 5% 59%  
164 6% 54% Median
165 4% 48%  
166 6% 44%  
167 4% 38%  
168 4% 34%  
169 4% 30%  
170 5% 26%  
171 3% 22%  
172 3% 19%  
173 2% 15%  
174 3% 13%  
175 2% 10%  
176 2% 8%  
177 0.8% 6%  
178 1.3% 5%  
179 1.0% 4%  
180 0.9% 3%  
181 0.4% 2%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.3% 1.3%  
184 0.3% 1.0%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.2% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations