Opinion Poll by Forsa, 21–25 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.2–29.8% 26.8–30.2% 26.5–30.5% 25.9–31.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.8–22.2% 19.5–22.6% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 214 205–225 202–228 200–231 195–237
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 150–168 147–170 144–172 141–178
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 106–121 103–124 101–126 98–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 62–75 60–77 59–78 56–82
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 53–68 52–70 49–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 44–55 43–57 42–58 39–61
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–51 39–52 38–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.5%  
196 0.3% 99.4%  
197 0.4% 99.1%  
198 0.5% 98.8%  
199 0.7% 98%  
200 0.9% 98% Last Result
201 1.0% 97%  
202 1.3% 96%  
203 2% 94%  
204 2% 92%  
205 2% 90%  
206 3% 89%  
207 3% 85%  
208 5% 83%  
209 4% 78%  
210 4% 74%  
211 5% 70%  
212 4% 65%  
213 5% 60%  
214 7% 55% Median
215 4% 48%  
216 5% 44%  
217 4% 39%  
218 5% 35%  
219 5% 30%  
220 3% 25%  
221 3% 22%  
222 4% 19%  
223 2% 15%  
224 2% 13%  
225 2% 11%  
226 1.5% 8%  
227 2% 7%  
228 1.1% 5%  
229 0.7% 4%  
230 0.8% 3%  
231 0.5% 3%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.4% 1.5%  
234 0.2% 1.1%  
235 0.2% 0.9%  
236 0.2% 0.7%  
237 0.1% 0.5%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0.1% 99.9%  
139 0.1% 99.8%  
140 0.1% 99.7%  
141 0.2% 99.6%  
142 0.4% 99.5%  
143 0.5% 99.0%  
144 1.0% 98%  
145 1.0% 97%  
146 1.5% 97%  
147 1.2% 95%  
148 1.4% 94%  
149 2% 92%  
150 3% 90%  
151 4% 88%  
152 5% 84%  
153 5% 79%  
154 6% 74%  
155 4% 68%  
156 4% 64%  
157 4% 59%  
158 6% 55% Median
159 5% 49%  
160 8% 45%  
161 6% 37%  
162 6% 31%  
163 4% 25%  
164 3% 21%  
165 3% 18%  
166 2% 15%  
167 2% 13%  
168 3% 11%  
169 2% 8%  
170 2% 6%  
171 1.2% 5%  
172 0.9% 3%  
173 0.5% 2%  
174 0.4% 2%  
175 0.3% 2%  
176 0.3% 1.2%  
177 0.2% 0.9%  
178 0.3% 0.6%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.4% 99.4%  
100 0.7% 99.0%  
101 1.4% 98%  
102 1.5% 97%  
103 1.3% 95%  
104 1.1% 94%  
105 2% 93%  
106 5% 91%  
107 6% 86%  
108 5% 80%  
109 4% 75%  
110 4% 71%  
111 6% 67%  
112 7% 61%  
113 7% 54% Median
114 9% 47%  
115 6% 38%  
116 4% 32%  
117 3% 28%  
118 4% 25%  
119 6% 21%  
120 4% 15%  
121 2% 11%  
122 2% 8%  
123 1.3% 6%  
124 1.4% 5%  
125 1.1% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.2%  
129 0.2% 0.8%  
130 0.1% 0.6%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.4%  
58 0.9% 98.8%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 4% 92%  
63 4% 87%  
64 6% 83%  
65 7% 78%  
66 7% 71%  
67 8% 63%  
68 7% 55% Median
69 8% 48%  
70 8% 39%  
71 7% 32%  
72 6% 25%  
73 5% 19%  
74 3% 14%  
75 3% 11%  
76 2% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.3% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.5%  
81 0.3% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 1.0% 98.7%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 3% 93%  
55 5% 90%  
56 5% 85%  
57 7% 80%  
58 8% 74%  
59 8% 66%  
60 9% 58% Median
61 10% 50%  
62 7% 40%  
63 8% 32%  
64 6% 25%  
65 4% 18%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5% Last Result
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.6% 99.3%  
41 1.2% 98.7%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 4% 93%  
45 5% 88%  
46 7% 83% Last Result
47 9% 77%  
48 10% 68%  
49 10% 58% Median
50 8% 48%  
51 8% 40%  
52 8% 32%  
53 7% 24%  
54 5% 17%  
55 3% 12%  
56 3% 9%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.4% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 0.9% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 3% 94%  
41 7% 90%  
42 7% 83%  
43 8% 77%  
44 8% 69%  
45 9% 61%  
46 14% 52% Median
47 7% 38%  
48 9% 30%  
49 5% 21%  
50 5% 17%  
51 3% 12%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.4% 1.0%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 535 100% 526–545 523–548 521–553 516–578
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 467 100% 457–477 453–480 450–483 443–488
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 422 100% 411–433 408–437 406–442 401–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 422 100% 411–433 407–435 404–438 397–443
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.6% 366–388 363–392 361–397 355–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 377 98.6% 366–388 363–391 358–394 348–399
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 332 1.4% 322–343 319–347 316–351 311–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 1.4% 321–343 318–346 315–351 310–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 305–327 302–330 297–333 284–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 309 0% 298–320 294–323 290–325 276–331
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 261–282 258–286 256–289 251–297
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 164–183 162–186 160–188 155–194
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 149–167 146–170 141–172 117–177

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 99.9%  
513 0% 99.9%  
514 0.1% 99.8%  
515 0.1% 99.7%  
516 0.2% 99.6%  
517 0.3% 99.4%  
518 0.4% 99.1%  
519 0.5% 98.7%  
520 0.7% 98%  
521 1.2% 98%  
522 1.2% 96%  
523 1.2% 95%  
524 1.5% 94%  
525 2% 93%  
526 2% 90%  
527 2% 88%  
528 4% 85%  
529 4% 82%  
530 4% 78%  
531 5% 74%  
532 4% 69%  
533 7% 65%  
534 5% 58% Median
535 7% 53%  
536 7% 47%  
537 4% 40%  
538 5% 36%  
539 4% 31%  
540 5% 27%  
541 3% 22%  
542 4% 19%  
543 3% 15%  
544 2% 12%  
545 2% 10%  
546 1.2% 8%  
547 1.4% 7%  
548 1.0% 5%  
549 0.8% 4%  
550 0.6% 4%  
551 0.2% 3%  
552 0.3% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0.2% 2%  
555 0.1% 2%  
556 0.1% 2%  
557 0.1% 2%  
558 0% 2%  
559 0% 2%  
560 0% 2%  
561 0% 2%  
562 0% 2%  
563 0% 2%  
564 0% 2%  
565 0.1% 2%  
566 0.1% 2%  
567 0.1% 2%  
568 0.1% 2%  
569 0.1% 2%  
570 0.1% 2%  
571 0.1% 1.4%  
572 0.1% 1.3%  
573 0.1% 1.2%  
574 0.1% 1.0%  
575 0.2% 1.0%  
576 0.1% 0.8%  
577 0.2% 0.7%  
578 0.2% 0.6%  
579 0.1% 0.4%  
580 0.1% 0.3%  
581 0% 0.2%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0.1%  
586 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0% 99.9%  
439 0% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.1% 99.7%  
442 0.1% 99.6%  
443 0.1% 99.6%  
444 0.1% 99.5%  
445 0.2% 99.4%  
446 0.2% 99.2%  
447 0.3% 99.0%  
448 0.3% 98.7%  
449 0.3% 98%  
450 0.6% 98%  
451 0.6% 97%  
452 0.7% 97%  
453 1.2% 96%  
454 1.1% 95%  
455 1.2% 94%  
456 2% 93%  
457 3% 91%  
458 3% 88%  
459 3% 86%  
460 3% 83%  
461 2% 79%  
462 4% 77%  
463 6% 73%  
464 3% 67%  
465 4% 64%  
466 4% 60%  
467 5% 55% Median
468 6% 50%  
469 5% 44%  
470 4% 39%  
471 4% 35%  
472 4% 31%  
473 4% 27%  
474 3% 22%  
475 4% 19%  
476 2% 15%  
477 3% 13%  
478 2% 10%  
479 2% 8%  
480 1.2% 6%  
481 1.3% 5%  
482 0.7% 4%  
483 0.9% 3%  
484 0.5% 2%  
485 0.4% 1.4%  
486 0.3% 1.1%  
487 0.3% 0.8%  
488 0.2% 0.5%  
489 0.1% 0.3%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0.1% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.7%  
401 0.2% 99.6%  
402 0.2% 99.3%  
403 0.4% 99.2%  
404 0.4% 98.8%  
405 0.7% 98%  
406 0.5% 98%  
407 0.9% 97%  
408 2% 96%  
409 1.5% 95%  
410 2% 93%  
411 2% 92%  
412 1.5% 90%  
413 2% 88%  
414 3% 86%  
415 3% 83%  
416 6% 80%  
417 3% 74%  
418 5% 71%  
419 4% 66%  
420 3% 62%  
421 6% 58% Median
422 6% 53%  
423 4% 47%  
424 4% 42%  
425 3% 38%  
426 4% 35%  
427 5% 31%  
428 4% 26%  
429 4% 22%  
430 3% 18%  
431 2% 16%  
432 2% 13%  
433 2% 11%  
434 1.2% 9%  
435 2% 8%  
436 1.2% 7%  
437 0.7% 5%  
438 0.7% 5%  
439 0.5% 4%  
440 0.4% 3%  
441 0.4% 3%  
442 0.2% 3%  
443 0.2% 2%  
444 0.2% 2%  
445 0.1% 2%  
446 0.1% 2%  
447 0.1% 2%  
448 0.1% 2%  
449 0.1% 1.4%  
450 0.1% 1.3%  
451 0.1% 1.2%  
452 0.1% 1.1%  
453 0.2% 1.0%  
454 0.1% 0.8%  
455 0.1% 0.7%  
456 0.1% 0.7%  
457 0% 0.6%  
458 0.1% 0.5%  
459 0.1% 0.4%  
460 0% 0.3%  
461 0% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0% 99.9%  
390 0% 99.9%  
391 0.1% 99.9%  
392 0.1% 99.8%  
393 0.1% 99.7%  
394 0% 99.6%  
395 0% 99.6%  
396 0% 99.6%  
397 0.1% 99.5%  
398 0.1% 99.4%  
399 0.3% 99.3%  
400 0.2% 99.1%  
401 0.2% 98.8%  
402 0.3% 98.6%  
403 0.4% 98%  
404 0.4% 98%  
405 0.7% 97%  
406 0.9% 97%  
407 1.0% 96%  
408 0.7% 95%  
409 0.8% 94%  
410 2% 93%  
411 2% 92%  
412 3% 90%  
413 3% 87%  
414 3% 83%  
415 2% 81%  
416 3% 79%  
417 3% 76%  
418 4% 74%  
419 8% 70%  
420 5% 62%  
421 4% 56%  
422 4% 52% Median
423 3% 48%  
424 4% 45%  
425 5% 41%  
426 7% 36%  
427 3% 29%  
428 5% 26%  
429 4% 21%  
430 3% 18%  
431 1.5% 15%  
432 2% 13%  
433 3% 11%  
434 3% 9%  
435 1.4% 6%  
436 1.3% 5%  
437 0.9% 4%  
438 0.5% 3%  
439 0.4% 2%  
440 0.6% 2%  
441 0.3% 1.3%  
442 0.3% 0.9%  
443 0.2% 0.6%  
444 0.1% 0.4%  
445 0.1% 0.3%  
446 0.1% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.7%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.2% 99.5%  
357 0.2% 99.2%  
358 0.3% 99.0%  
359 0.6% 98.7%  
360 0.6% 98%  
361 0.7% 98%  
362 1.2% 97%  
363 0.7% 96%  
364 2% 95%  
365 2% 93%  
366 2% 91%  
367 2% 89%  
368 3% 87%  
369 2% 84%  
370 3% 82%  
371 3% 78%  
372 4% 75%  
373 6% 71%  
374 4% 65%  
375 6% 61%  
376 4% 55% Median
377 4% 51%  
378 6% 47%  
379 4% 42%  
380 4% 38%  
381 3% 33%  
382 4% 30%  
383 4% 26%  
384 3% 22%  
385 3% 19%  
386 2% 16%  
387 2% 13%  
388 2% 11%  
389 1.4% 9%  
390 2% 8%  
391 0.9% 6%  
392 0.9% 5%  
393 0.9% 4%  
394 0.4% 4%  
395 0.3% 3%  
396 0.2% 3%  
397 0.3% 3%  
398 0.2% 2%  
399 0.4% 2% Last Result
400 0.2% 2%  
401 0.2% 2%  
402 0.2% 1.3%  
403 0.1% 1.1%  
404 0.1% 1.1%  
405 0% 1.0%  
406 0.1% 1.0%  
407 0.2% 0.9%  
408 0.2% 0.7%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0% 0.3%  
412 0% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.3%  
414 0% 0.3%  
415 0% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 99.9%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.8%  
344 0% 99.8%  
345 0% 99.7%  
346 0.1% 99.7%  
347 0.1% 99.6%  
348 0% 99.5%  
349 0.1% 99.5%  
350 0.1% 99.4%  
351 0.2% 99.3%  
352 0.1% 99.1%  
353 0.2% 99.0%  
354 0.2% 98.8%  
355 0.2% 98.6% Majority
356 0.3% 98%  
357 0.4% 98%  
358 0.3% 98%  
359 0.6% 97%  
360 0.5% 97%  
361 0.6% 96%  
362 0.6% 96%  
363 1.0% 95%  
364 1.1% 94%  
365 1.4% 93%  
366 2% 92%  
367 2% 90%  
368 2% 87%  
369 2% 85%  
370 4% 83%  
371 3% 79%  
372 3% 76%  
373 4% 73%  
374 6% 69%  
375 5% 63%  
376 5% 58%  
377 5% 54% Median
378 4% 48%  
379 5% 44%  
380 4% 39%  
381 3% 35%  
382 4% 32%  
383 4% 27%  
384 4% 24%  
385 3% 20%  
386 3% 17%  
387 2% 14%  
388 2% 12%  
389 2% 9%  
390 2% 8%  
391 1.3% 6%  
392 1.0% 5%  
393 0.7% 4%  
394 1.0% 3%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.4% 1.5%  
397 0.3% 1.1%  
398 0.2% 0.8%  
399 0.2% 0.5%  
400 0.1% 0.4%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0.1% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.2% 99.5%  
312 0.2% 99.3%  
313 0.4% 99.1%  
314 0.5% 98.7%  
315 0.4% 98%  
316 0.7% 98%  
317 0.9% 97%  
318 1.1% 96%  
319 1.5% 95%  
320 2% 94%  
321 2% 92%  
322 2% 90%  
323 2% 88%  
324 3% 85%  
325 3% 82%  
326 3% 79%  
327 5% 76%  
328 3% 71%  
329 4% 67%  
330 7% 64%  
331 6% 57% Median
332 5% 51%  
333 4% 47%  
334 3% 43%  
335 5% 39%  
336 4% 34%  
337 4% 30%  
338 4% 26%  
339 2% 22%  
340 4% 20% Last Result
341 2% 16%  
342 2% 14%  
343 2% 12%  
344 2% 10%  
345 0.9% 8%  
346 2% 7%  
347 0.7% 5%  
348 0.8% 5%  
349 0.7% 4%  
350 0.4% 3%  
351 0.5% 3%  
352 0.3% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.4% Majority
356 0.2% 1.2%  
357 0.3% 1.0%  
358 0.1% 0.8%  
359 0.1% 0.7%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.8%  
309 0.1% 99.7%  
310 0.2% 99.6%  
311 0.2% 99.5%  
312 0.3% 99.2%  
313 0.4% 98.9%  
314 0.5% 98.5%  
315 1.0% 98%  
316 0.7% 97%  
317 1.0% 96%  
318 1.3% 95%  
319 2% 94%  
320 2% 92%  
321 2% 91%  
322 2% 88%  
323 3% 86%  
324 3% 83%  
325 4% 80%  
326 4% 76%  
327 4% 73%  
328 3% 68%  
329 4% 65%  
330 5% 61%  
331 4% 56% Median
332 5% 52%  
333 5% 46%  
334 5% 42%  
335 6% 37%  
336 4% 31%  
337 3% 27%  
338 3% 24%  
339 4% 21%  
340 2% 17%  
341 2% 15%  
342 2% 13%  
343 2% 10%  
344 1.4% 8%  
345 1.1% 7%  
346 1.0% 6%  
347 0.6% 5%  
348 0.6% 4%  
349 0.5% 4%  
350 0.6% 3%  
351 0.3% 3%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.2% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.4% Majority
356 0.2% 1.2%  
357 0.1% 1.0%  
358 0.2% 0.9%  
359 0.1% 0.7%  
360 0.1% 0.6%  
361 0% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0% 0.3%  
365 0% 0.3%  
366 0% 0.2%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0% 99.5%  
285 0.1% 99.5%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0.1% 99.4%  
288 0.1% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.2%  
290 0.1% 99.1%  
291 0.2% 98.9%  
292 0.1% 98.8%  
293 0.2% 98.6%  
294 0.2% 98%  
295 0.2% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.5% 97%  
299 0.7% 97%  
300 0.5% 96% Last Result
301 0.7% 96%  
302 1.1% 95%  
303 2% 94%  
304 0.7% 92%  
305 2% 92%  
306 2% 90%  
307 3% 88%  
308 3% 85%  
309 2% 82%  
310 3% 80%  
311 4% 76%  
312 4% 72%  
313 5% 68%  
314 4% 63%  
315 4% 59%  
316 4% 55%  
317 5% 51% Median
318 6% 46%  
319 4% 39%  
320 4% 35%  
321 4% 32%  
322 5% 28%  
323 3% 23%  
324 3% 20%  
325 2% 17%  
326 3% 14%  
327 2% 12%  
328 2% 9%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 1.3% 6%  
331 1.0% 5%  
332 0.7% 4%  
333 0.8% 3%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.3% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.8%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.8%  
271 0.1% 99.8%  
272 0% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.7%  
274 0% 99.6%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.2% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.2%  
281 0.2% 99.0%  
282 0.1% 98.9%  
283 0.1% 98.8%  
284 0.3% 98.7%  
285 0.1% 98%  
286 0.1% 98%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.4% 97%  
292 0.6% 97%  
293 0.8% 96%  
294 1.0% 95%  
295 1.2% 94%  
296 1.1% 93%  
297 1.4% 92%  
298 1.3% 91%  
299 2% 89%  
300 2% 87%  
301 3% 85%  
302 3% 83%  
303 4% 80%  
304 3% 76%  
305 6% 73%  
306 5% 68%  
307 5% 62%  
308 5% 58%  
309 6% 53% Median
310 5% 47%  
311 4% 43%  
312 4% 39%  
313 5% 35%  
314 3% 30%  
315 4% 27%  
316 3% 23%  
317 3% 20%  
318 3% 17%  
319 3% 14%  
320 2% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 2% 7%  
323 0.9% 5%  
324 1.1% 4%  
325 0.8% 3%  
326 0.6% 2% Last Result
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.4% 1.4%  
329 0.3% 1.0%  
330 0.2% 0.8%  
331 0.2% 0.6%  
332 0.1% 0.4%  
333 0.1% 0.3%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.8%  
249 0.1% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.6%  
251 0.2% 99.5%  
252 0.2% 99.3%  
253 0.4% 99.1%  
254 0.5% 98.6%  
255 0.6% 98%  
256 0.8% 98%  
257 1.4% 97%  
258 1.3% 95%  
259 2% 94%  
260 2% 92%  
261 2% 90%  
262 3% 88%  
263 3% 86%  
264 3% 83%  
265 4% 79%  
266 4% 75%  
267 5% 71%  
268 4% 67%  
269 5% 63%  
270 4% 58%  
271 6% 53% Median
272 5% 47%  
273 3% 42%  
274 5% 39%  
275 3% 34%  
276 5% 31%  
277 4% 26%  
278 4% 22%  
279 3% 19%  
280 3% 16%  
281 2% 13%  
282 2% 11%  
283 2% 9%  
284 1.4% 8%  
285 1.1% 6%  
286 1.0% 5%  
287 0.7% 4%  
288 0.6% 4%  
289 0.6% 3%  
290 0.3% 2%  
291 0.4% 2%  
292 0.3% 2%  
293 0.2% 1.4%  
294 0.2% 1.1%  
295 0.1% 0.9%  
296 0.1% 0.8%  
297 0.2% 0.6%  
298 0.1% 0.5%  
299 0.1% 0.4%  
300 0% 0.2%  
301 0% 0.2%  
302 0% 0.2%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0.1%  
305 0% 0.1%  
306 0% 0.1%  
307 0% 0.1%  
308 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.6%  
156 0.3% 99.5%  
157 0.4% 99.1%  
158 0.4% 98.8%  
159 0.7% 98%  
160 0.8% 98%  
161 1.5% 97%  
162 2% 95%  
163 2% 94%  
164 2% 92%  
165 4% 89%  
166 4% 85%  
167 3% 81%  
168 3% 78%  
169 4% 75%  
170 5% 72%  
171 6% 67%  
172 6% 61%  
173 5% 55% Median
174 6% 50%  
175 6% 44%  
176 4% 38%  
177 3% 33%  
178 5% 31%  
179 5% 26%  
180 5% 21%  
181 4% 17%  
182 3% 13%  
183 2% 10%  
184 2% 8%  
185 1.5% 7%  
186 1.2% 5%  
187 1.0% 4%  
188 0.6% 3%  
189 0.5% 2%  
190 0.4% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.5%  
192 0.3% 1.0%  
193 0.2% 0.8%  
194 0.1% 0.6%  
195 0.1% 0.4%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.8%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0.1% 99.6%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.1% 99.5%  
118 0.1% 99.4%  
119 0.2% 99.3%  
120 0.1% 99.1%  
121 0.1% 99.0%  
122 0.2% 98.9%  
123 0.1% 98.7%  
124 0.1% 98.6%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 0.1% 98%  
133 0% 98%  
134 0% 98%  
135 0% 98%  
136 0% 98%  
137 0% 98%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0.1% 98%  
140 0.2% 98%  
141 0.2% 98%  
142 0.2% 97%  
143 0.3% 97%  
144 0.5% 97%  
145 0.6% 96%  
146 1.2% 96%  
147 1.3% 94%  
148 2% 93%  
149 2% 91%  
150 3% 89%  
151 2% 86%  
152 4% 84%  
153 3% 80%  
154 4% 76%  
155 6% 72%  
156 5% 66%  
157 7% 61%  
158 6% 54%  
159 4% 48% Median
160 8% 45%  
161 4% 37%  
162 5% 33%  
163 5% 28%  
164 3% 23%  
165 5% 20%  
166 3% 15%  
167 2% 12%  
168 3% 10%  
169 2% 7%  
170 1.2% 6%  
171 1.3% 4%  
172 0.8% 3%  
173 0.7% 2%  
174 0.5% 2%  
175 0.3% 1.1%  
176 0.2% 0.8%  
177 0.2% 0.6%  
178 0.2% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations