Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 25–28 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.0% 25.8–28.3% 25.4–28.7% 25.1–29.0% 24.6–29.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.1% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.7% 16.8–21.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.6–12.4% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–12.9% 9.8–13.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 205 194–211 192–217 190–219 185–223
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 135–151 133–154 131–156 127–160
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 117 109–125 107–127 105–129 102–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 86 80–93 78–96 77–97 74–101
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 55–66 53–68 52–70 50–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 51 43–52 43–55 42–59 42–60
Die Linke 69 49 44–54 43–56 41–57 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
180 0% 100%  
181 0.1% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.7%  
185 0.1% 99.5%  
186 0.1% 99.4%  
187 0.1% 99.3%  
188 0.2% 99.2%  
189 0.6% 98.9%  
190 0.9% 98%  
191 1.4% 97%  
192 2% 96%  
193 3% 94%  
194 4% 91%  
195 4% 87%  
196 5% 83%  
197 4% 78%  
198 2% 74%  
199 2% 72%  
200 1.4% 70% Last Result
201 2% 69%  
202 4% 67%  
203 5% 63%  
204 6% 59%  
205 8% 53% Median
206 7% 45%  
207 8% 38%  
208 7% 30%  
209 7% 23%  
210 5% 16%  
211 2% 11%  
212 1.2% 9%  
213 0.6% 8%  
214 0.6% 7%  
215 0.7% 7%  
216 1.0% 6%  
217 1.1% 5%  
218 1.0% 4%  
219 0.9% 3%  
220 0.6% 2%  
221 0.6% 1.5%  
222 0.3% 0.8%  
223 0.2% 0.5%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.7%  
127 0.2% 99.6%  
128 0.4% 99.4%  
129 0.6% 99.0%  
130 0.7% 98%  
131 1.1% 98%  
132 1.2% 97%  
133 2% 95%  
134 3% 93%  
135 3% 91%  
136 3% 88%  
137 3% 85%  
138 6% 82%  
139 5% 76%  
140 7% 71%  
141 6% 64%  
142 5% 58%  
143 6% 53% Median
144 6% 47%  
145 7% 41%  
146 5% 34%  
147 5% 29%  
148 3% 24%  
149 5% 21%  
150 4% 16%  
151 3% 12%  
152 2% 9%  
153 1.5% 7%  
154 2% 6%  
155 1.4% 4%  
156 0.9% 3%  
157 0.6% 2%  
158 0.4% 1.5%  
159 0.3% 1.1%  
160 0.3% 0.8%  
161 0.2% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.4%  
104 0.6% 99.1%  
105 1.3% 98%  
106 1.4% 97%  
107 1.4% 96%  
108 3% 94%  
109 2% 92%  
110 3% 89%  
111 5% 86%  
112 5% 82%  
113 7% 77%  
114 6% 70%  
115 6% 64%  
116 5% 58%  
117 7% 53% Median
118 7% 46%  
119 5% 40%  
120 9% 35%  
121 5% 26%  
122 4% 21%  
123 3% 17%  
124 4% 14%  
125 2% 10%  
126 2% 8%  
127 2% 6%  
128 1.1% 4%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.3%  
132 0.3% 0.9%  
133 0.3% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.5% 99.6%  
75 0.4% 99.1%  
76 0.9% 98.6%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 4% 92%  
81 4% 88%  
82 7% 84%  
83 5% 78%  
84 5% 72%  
85 10% 67%  
86 7% 57% Median
87 7% 50%  
88 7% 42%  
89 5% 35%  
90 7% 30%  
91 5% 23%  
92 3% 17%  
93 5% 14%  
94 3% 10% Last Result
95 2% 7%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.9% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.6%  
102 0.2% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.5%  
51 1.0% 99.0%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 5% 91%  
56 5% 86%  
57 7% 81%  
58 7% 74%  
59 8% 67%  
60 9% 59% Median
61 9% 49%  
62 8% 40%  
63 7% 32%  
64 7% 24%  
65 5% 17%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 3% 99.7%  
43 11% 97%  
44 12% 86%  
45 3% 74%  
46 0.3% 71%  
47 0% 71%  
48 0% 71%  
49 1.1% 71%  
50 13% 69%  
51 30% 56% Median
52 18% 26%  
53 3% 8%  
54 0.2% 5%  
55 0% 5%  
56 0% 5%  
57 0.2% 5%  
58 2% 5%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.0%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0.1% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 0.8% 99.4%  
41 1.2% 98.5%  
42 2% 97%  
43 3% 95%  
44 5% 92%  
45 7% 88%  
46 7% 81%  
47 9% 74%  
48 10% 65%  
49 10% 56% Median
50 10% 46%  
51 8% 35%  
52 7% 28%  
53 6% 21%  
54 5% 14%  
55 3% 10%  
56 3% 6%  
57 1.4% 4%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.4%  
60 0.4% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 524 100% 516–533 512–535 510–538 506–543
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 456 100% 447–466 443–469 441–471 436–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 430 100% 420–440 417–443 415–446 409–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 398–417 394–419 391–423 386–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 400 100% 390–410 386–413 384–416 379–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 100% 371–392 368–394 365–397 360–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 32% 340–361 337–364 335–367 330–373
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 314 0% 303–323 300–326 297–329 292–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 309 0% 299–319 296–323 293–325 288–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 299–320 296–322 293–325 288–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 250–270 247–273 245–275 240–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 166 0% 157–175 155–178 153–180 148–184
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 157–175 155–177 153–179 148–184

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.8%  
504 0.1% 99.7%  
505 0.1% 99.7%  
506 0.2% 99.5%  
507 0.3% 99.4%  
508 0.5% 99.0%  
509 0.9% 98.6%  
510 1.2% 98%  
511 1.1% 96%  
512 0.8% 95%  
513 0.9% 95%  
514 1.0% 94%  
515 2% 93%  
516 5% 90%  
517 5% 85%  
518 4% 81%  
519 5% 77%  
520 4% 72%  
521 4% 68%  
522 4% 64%  
523 6% 60%  
524 6% 54%  
525 5% 48% Median
526 9% 43%  
527 6% 34%  
528 5% 28%  
529 3% 23%  
530 2% 21%  
531 3% 19%  
532 3% 16%  
533 4% 13%  
534 3% 9%  
535 2% 6%  
536 0.8% 4%  
537 0.7% 3%  
538 0.4% 3%  
539 0.5% 2%  
540 0.6% 2%  
541 0.3% 1.2%  
542 0.2% 0.9%  
543 0.2% 0.7%  
544 0.1% 0.5%  
545 0% 0.4%  
546 0% 0.4%  
547 0% 0.3%  
548 0% 0.3%  
549 0% 0.3%  
550 0% 0.3%  
551 0% 0.3%  
552 0% 0.3%  
553 0% 0.3%  
554 0% 0.3%  
555 0% 0.3%  
556 0% 0.2%  
557 0% 0.2%  
558 0% 0.2%  
559 0% 0.2%  
560 0% 0.2%  
561 0% 0.2%  
562 0% 0.2%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0.1%  
565 0% 0.1%  
566 0% 0.1%  
567 0% 0.1%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.6%  
436 0.2% 99.5%  
437 0.2% 99.3%  
438 0.3% 99.1%  
439 0.5% 98.8%  
440 0.4% 98%  
441 0.8% 98%  
442 0.7% 97%  
443 2% 96%  
444 1.1% 95%  
445 2% 94%  
446 1.4% 92%  
447 3% 91%  
448 2% 88%  
449 4% 86%  
450 4% 82%  
451 3% 77%  
452 6% 74%  
453 4% 69%  
454 6% 65%  
455 5% 58%  
456 6% 53%  
457 4% 47%  
458 5% 44%  
459 4% 38% Median
460 4% 34%  
461 3% 30%  
462 3% 26%  
463 4% 24%  
464 4% 19%  
465 4% 16%  
466 3% 12%  
467 2% 9%  
468 2% 7%  
469 1.1% 5%  
470 1.4% 4%  
471 0.6% 3%  
472 0.4% 2%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.3% 1.4%  
475 0.3% 1.0%  
476 0.1% 0.7%  
477 0.1% 0.6%  
478 0.1% 0.4%  
479 0.1% 0.3%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.6%  
410 0.2% 99.5%  
411 0.3% 99.3%  
412 0.5% 99.0%  
413 0.5% 98.5%  
414 0.5% 98%  
415 0.9% 98%  
416 1.1% 97%  
417 2% 96%  
418 1.2% 94%  
419 2% 93%  
420 2% 91%  
421 3% 89%  
422 3% 87%  
423 3% 84%  
424 5% 81%  
425 4% 76%  
426 5% 72%  
427 5% 67%  
428 3% 61%  
429 5% 59%  
430 4% 53%  
431 4% 49%  
432 5% 45%  
433 6% 41% Median
434 4% 35%  
435 6% 31%  
436 3% 25%  
437 5% 22%  
438 3% 17%  
439 2% 14%  
440 2% 11%  
441 2% 9%  
442 2% 8%  
443 1.1% 6%  
444 1.3% 5%  
445 0.9% 4%  
446 0.8% 3%  
447 0.5% 2%  
448 0.3% 1.4%  
449 0.3% 1.1%  
450 0.2% 0.7%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0% 0.3%  
455 0% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.7%  
387 0.2% 99.5%  
388 0.4% 99.3%  
389 0.5% 98.9%  
390 0.5% 98%  
391 0.7% 98%  
392 1.0% 97%  
393 0.7% 96%  
394 0.8% 95%  
395 1.1% 95%  
396 0.9% 94%  
397 2% 93%  
398 3% 91%  
399 3% 88%  
400 3% 84%  
401 6% 82%  
402 5% 76%  
403 6% 71%  
404 6% 65%  
405 5% 59%  
406 4% 54%  
407 4% 50%  
408 5% 46% Median
409 4% 42%  
410 3% 38%  
411 4% 35%  
412 3% 31%  
413 4% 28%  
414 5% 24%  
415 3% 19%  
416 4% 16%  
417 3% 12%  
418 2% 9%  
419 2% 7%  
420 1.3% 5%  
421 0.5% 4%  
422 0.6% 3%  
423 0.4% 3%  
424 0.3% 2%  
425 0.5% 2%  
426 0.3% 1.3%  
427 0.2% 1.0%  
428 0.2% 0.8%  
429 0.2% 0.7%  
430 0.1% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.8%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.3% 99.6%  
380 0.2% 99.3%  
381 0.3% 99.1%  
382 0.4% 98.8%  
383 0.5% 98%  
384 0.9% 98%  
385 0.6% 97%  
386 1.4% 96%  
387 1.1% 95%  
388 2% 94%  
389 2% 92%  
390 3% 91%  
391 3% 87%  
392 3% 85%  
393 3% 82%  
394 5% 79%  
395 3% 74%  
396 5% 71%  
397 4% 66%  
398 4% 63%  
399 6% 59%  
400 5% 53%  
401 4% 49%  
402 7% 44% Median
403 4% 37%  
404 4% 34%  
405 6% 30%  
406 3% 24%  
407 4% 21%  
408 3% 17%  
409 3% 14%  
410 2% 11%  
411 2% 9%  
412 1.2% 7%  
413 1.0% 5%  
414 1.1% 4%  
415 0.7% 3%  
416 0.6% 3%  
417 0.5% 2%  
418 0.4% 2%  
419 0.2% 1.1%  
420 0.3% 0.9% Last Result
421 0.2% 0.6%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0.1% 0.3%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.2% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.3% 99.4%  
362 0.2% 99.1%  
363 0.3% 98.9%  
364 0.8% 98.5%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.9% 97%  
367 1.0% 96%  
368 1.2% 95%  
369 1.5% 94%  
370 2% 93%  
371 2% 90%  
372 3% 88%  
373 3% 85%  
374 4% 82%  
375 3% 78%  
376 4% 75%  
377 4% 70%  
378 5% 67%  
379 3% 61%  
380 5% 58%  
381 4% 53%  
382 6% 48% Median
383 5% 43%  
384 5% 38%  
385 5% 33%  
386 5% 28%  
387 3% 23%  
388 3% 20%  
389 2% 17%  
390 2% 14%  
391 2% 12%  
392 2% 10%  
393 2% 8%  
394 1.4% 6%  
395 1.2% 5%  
396 0.9% 4%  
397 0.7% 3%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.4% 2% Last Result
400 0.2% 1.2%  
401 0.2% 0.9%  
402 0.2% 0.7%  
403 0.1% 0.6%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0% 0.3%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.2% 99.6%  
331 0.2% 99.5%  
332 0.2% 99.3%  
333 0.4% 99.1%  
334 0.6% 98.6%  
335 0.7% 98%  
336 1.3% 97%  
337 1.2% 96%  
338 1.3% 95%  
339 3% 93%  
340 2% 91% Last Result
341 3% 88%  
342 3% 86%  
343 4% 83%  
344 3% 80%  
345 3% 77%  
346 3% 74%  
347 4% 70%  
348 3% 66%  
349 5% 63%  
350 4% 58%  
351 7% 54% Median
352 4% 47%  
353 5% 43%  
354 6% 38%  
355 5% 32% Majority
356 5% 27%  
357 4% 23%  
358 3% 19%  
359 3% 15%  
360 2% 13%  
361 2% 10%  
362 1.2% 8%  
363 1.4% 7%  
364 1.2% 6%  
365 0.8% 4%  
366 0.8% 4%  
367 0.7% 3%  
368 0.5% 2%  
369 0.3% 2%  
370 0.3% 1.3%  
371 0.3% 1.0%  
372 0.2% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0.1% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.8%  
289 0% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.5%  
294 0.4% 99.3%  
295 0.3% 98.8%  
296 0.5% 98.5%  
297 0.8% 98%  
298 0.8% 97%  
299 1.1% 97%  
300 1.2% 95%  
301 1.4% 94%  
302 2% 93%  
303 2% 91%  
304 3% 89%  
305 3% 86%  
306 4% 83%  
307 4% 79%  
308 4% 75%  
309 4% 71%  
310 4% 67%  
311 3% 63%  
312 4% 60%  
313 5% 56%  
314 4% 51%  
315 5% 46%  
316 5% 42% Median
317 6% 37%  
318 4% 31%  
319 4% 26%  
320 5% 23%  
321 3% 18%  
322 3% 14%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 1.3% 7%  
326 1.2% 6% Last Result
327 1.1% 5%  
328 0.7% 4%  
329 0.7% 3%  
330 0.6% 2%  
331 0.4% 2%  
332 0.3% 1.3%  
333 0.4% 1.0%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.6%  
289 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.1%  
291 0.4% 98.9%  
292 0.5% 98%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 0.7% 97%  
295 1.1% 97%  
296 1.0% 96%  
297 1.2% 95%  
298 2% 93%  
299 2% 91%  
300 3% 89%  
301 3% 86%  
302 4% 83%  
303 3% 79%  
304 6% 76%  
305 4% 70%  
306 4% 66%  
307 7% 63%  
308 4% 56%  
309 5% 51% Median
310 6% 47%  
311 4% 41%  
312 4% 37%  
313 5% 34%  
314 3% 29%  
315 5% 26%  
316 3% 21%  
317 3% 18%  
318 3% 15%  
319 3% 13%  
320 2% 9%  
321 2% 8%  
322 1.1% 6%  
323 1.4% 5%  
324 0.6% 4%  
325 0.9% 3%  
326 0.5% 2%  
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.3% 0.7%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0.1% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.5%  
289 0.2% 99.3%  
290 0.3% 99.1%  
291 0.4% 98.8%  
292 0.5% 98%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 0.8% 97%  
295 1.0% 97%  
296 1.2% 96%  
297 1.4% 94%  
298 2% 93%  
299 2% 91%  
300 2% 90% Last Result
301 3% 88%  
302 3% 85%  
303 5% 82%  
304 4% 76%  
305 6% 72%  
306 4% 66%  
307 6% 63%  
308 5% 57%  
309 7% 51%  
310 4% 44%  
311 4% 41% Median
312 4% 37%  
313 3% 34%  
314 5% 30%  
315 3% 26%  
316 3% 22%  
317 3% 19%  
318 2% 16%  
319 3% 13%  
320 2% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 2% 7%  
323 0.9% 5%  
324 1.4% 4%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.7% 2%  
327 0.3% 1.3%  
328 0.2% 1.0%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.2%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0.1% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.2% 99.6%  
241 0.2% 99.4%  
242 0.4% 99.2%  
243 0.4% 98.8%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.9% 98%  
246 0.9% 97%  
247 1.2% 96%  
248 1.3% 95%  
249 1.5% 94%  
250 2% 92%  
251 3% 90%  
252 4% 87%  
253 5% 83%  
254 4% 79%  
255 3% 75%  
256 4% 72%  
257 6% 68%  
258 6% 61%  
259 5% 55%  
260 5% 50% Median
261 4% 45%  
262 3% 41%  
263 6% 38%  
264 4% 31%  
265 4% 27%  
266 3% 23%  
267 3% 20%  
268 3% 17%  
269 2% 14%  
270 2% 12%  
271 2% 10%  
272 2% 8%  
273 1.5% 6%  
274 0.8% 4%  
275 1.0% 3%  
276 0.6% 2%  
277 0.5% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.4%  
279 0.3% 1.0%  
280 0.2% 0.7%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.8%  
140 0% 99.8%  
141 0% 99.8%  
142 0% 99.8%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.1% 99.6%  
149 0.3% 99.5%  
150 0.3% 99.2%  
151 0.5% 98.9%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 1.3% 97%  
155 2% 96%  
156 2% 94%  
157 2% 92%  
158 3% 90%  
159 4% 87%  
160 4% 83%  
161 4% 79%  
162 4% 74%  
163 6% 70%  
164 5% 64%  
165 6% 58%  
166 5% 52% Median
167 4% 47%  
168 6% 42%  
169 6% 36%  
170 5% 30%  
171 4% 25%  
172 4% 21%  
173 3% 16%  
174 3% 14%  
175 2% 11%  
176 2% 8%  
177 1.3% 6%  
178 1.3% 5%  
179 1.2% 4%  
180 0.7% 3%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.2%  
183 0.3% 1.0%  
184 0.2% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.1% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.6%  
149 0.2% 99.4%  
150 0.4% 99.2%  
151 0.5% 98.9%  
152 0.8% 98%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 1.3% 97%  
155 2% 95%  
156 2% 94%  
157 2% 91%  
158 3% 89%  
159 3% 86%  
160 5% 83%  
161 3% 78%  
162 4% 75%  
163 5% 71%  
164 7% 66%  
165 4% 58%  
166 5% 54%  
167 6% 50%  
168 7% 43% Median
169 4% 36%  
170 4% 32%  
171 7% 29%  
172 4% 22%  
173 4% 17%  
174 2% 14%  
175 3% 11%  
176 2% 8%  
177 2% 6%  
178 1.1% 5%  
179 1.2% 4%  
180 0.6% 2%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.2%  
183 0.3% 0.9%  
184 0.2% 0.6%  
185 0.2% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

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