Opinion Poll by Kantar, 22–30 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.3–29.7% 27.0–30.0% 26.7–30.3% 26.1–30.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 17.0–19.0% 16.7–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.0–20.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.1–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 10.0–12.1% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–8.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 212 203–221 201–224 199–226 195–231
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 127–142 125–144 123–146 120–150
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 112–127 111–129 109–131 106–135
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 75–90 73–92 70–95
Die Linke 69 67 62–73 60–75 59–76 57–79
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 44–54 43–55 42–57 40–59
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–50 39–51 38–52 0–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.2% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.6%  
196 0.3% 99.3%  
197 0.6% 99.0%  
198 0.4% 98%  
199 1.5% 98%  
200 1.3% 96% Last Result
201 1.2% 95%  
202 2% 94%  
203 2% 92%  
204 2% 90%  
205 4% 87%  
206 5% 83%  
207 4% 78%  
208 5% 74%  
209 4% 69%  
210 6% 64%  
211 5% 59%  
212 9% 54% Median
213 4% 45%  
214 6% 41%  
215 4% 35%  
216 5% 31%  
217 4% 26%  
218 5% 22%  
219 3% 17%  
220 3% 14%  
221 3% 11%  
222 1.4% 8%  
223 1.4% 7%  
224 1.3% 5%  
225 1.0% 4%  
226 0.8% 3%  
227 0.7% 2%  
228 0.2% 2%  
229 0.4% 1.4%  
230 0.2% 1.0%  
231 0.3% 0.8%  
232 0.1% 0.5%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 100%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.4% 99.5%  
121 0.4% 99.1%  
122 0.7% 98.7%  
123 1.4% 98%  
124 1.1% 97%  
125 3% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 4% 90%  
128 3% 87%  
129 5% 84%  
130 6% 79%  
131 7% 73%  
132 6% 67%  
133 6% 60%  
134 6% 54% Median
135 5% 48%  
136 9% 43%  
137 7% 34%  
138 5% 27%  
139 3% 22%  
140 5% 19%  
141 4% 14%  
142 3% 11%  
143 2% 7%  
144 1.1% 5%  
145 1.2% 4%  
146 0.7% 3%  
147 1.1% 2%  
148 0.3% 1.3%  
149 0.3% 0.9%  
150 0.2% 0.6%  
151 0.1% 0.4%  
152 0.1% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.1% 99.7%  
106 0.4% 99.6%  
107 0.7% 99.2%  
108 0.6% 98%  
109 1.0% 98%  
110 1.2% 97%  
111 3% 96%  
112 4% 93%  
113 3% 89%  
114 4% 86%  
115 5% 82%  
116 10% 78%  
117 6% 68%  
118 5% 62%  
119 6% 57%  
120 8% 51% Median
121 9% 43%  
122 5% 34%  
123 4% 29%  
124 5% 25%  
125 5% 20%  
126 5% 15%  
127 2% 10%  
128 2% 8%  
129 2% 6%  
130 1.0% 4%  
131 1.1% 3%  
132 0.5% 2%  
133 0.4% 1.3%  
134 0.4% 0.9%  
135 0.2% 0.5%  
136 0.1% 0.4%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.4% 99.5%  
72 0.7% 99.1%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 4% 93%  
77 5% 89%  
78 6% 84%  
79 8% 79%  
80 8% 71%  
81 8% 63%  
82 8% 54% Median
83 8% 46%  
84 6% 38%  
85 6% 31%  
86 6% 25%  
87 5% 19%  
88 4% 15%  
89 3% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.2% 3%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.5% 99.6%  
58 0.8% 99.0%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 4% 92%  
63 6% 87%  
64 7% 81%  
65 8% 74%  
66 9% 67%  
67 9% 58% Median
68 10% 49%  
69 8% 38% Last Result
70 7% 30%  
71 6% 23%  
72 4% 17%  
73 4% 13%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.5% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 5% 93%  
45 6% 88%  
46 9% 82% Last Result
47 8% 74%  
48 11% 65%  
49 11% 54% Median
50 10% 43%  
51 9% 33%  
52 7% 25%  
53 6% 17%  
54 4% 12%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 0.6% 1.5%  
59 0.4% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 0% 98.7%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 0% 98.7%  
5 0% 98.7%  
6 0% 98.7%  
7 0% 98.7%  
8 0% 98.7%  
9 0% 98.7%  
10 0% 98.7%  
11 0% 98.7%  
12 0% 98.7%  
13 0% 98.7%  
14 0% 98.7%  
15 0% 98.7%  
16 0% 98.7%  
17 0% 98.7%  
18 0% 98.7%  
19 0% 98.7%  
20 0% 98.7%  
21 0% 98.7%  
22 0% 98.7%  
23 0% 98.7%  
24 0% 98.7%  
25 0% 98.7%  
26 0% 98.7%  
27 0% 98.7%  
28 0% 98.7%  
29 0% 98.7%  
30 0% 98.7%  
31 0% 98.7%  
32 0% 98.7%  
33 0% 98.7%  
34 0% 98.7%  
35 0% 98.7%  
36 0% 98.7%  
37 0.2% 98.7%  
38 2% 98.5%  
39 3% 97%  
40 5% 94%  
41 5% 89%  
42 8% 84%  
43 10% 76%  
44 10% 66%  
45 12% 56% Median
46 10% 44%  
47 10% 34%  
48 8% 24%  
49 6% 16%  
50 3% 10%  
51 3% 7%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 514 100% 505–523 504–525 502–530 496–550
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 440 100% 430–449 427–452 425–454 418–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 425 100% 416–435 413–437 410–439 402–444
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 395 100% 386–405 383–408 381–411 376–425
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 388 99.9% 378–398 375–400 372–403 363–407
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 380 100% 371–390 368–393 366–397 361–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 8% 334–353 331–356 329–359 324–369
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 321 0.1% 311–331 309–334 306–337 302–346
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 306 0% 296–315 293–318 290–320 276–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 298 0% 289–308 285–311 282–313 268–317
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 245–263 242–266 240–269 235–275
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 187 0% 179–196 176–198 174–201 170–206
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 156–173 154–175 151–177 126–181

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0.1% 99.9%  
495 0.2% 99.9%  
496 0.2% 99.7%  
497 0.2% 99.5%  
498 0.2% 99.3%  
499 0.2% 99.0%  
500 0.2% 98.8%  
501 0.6% 98.6%  
502 1.0% 98%  
503 2% 97%  
504 3% 95%  
505 3% 92%  
506 3% 89%  
507 3% 87%  
508 2% 84%  
509 2% 82%  
510 4% 81%  
511 6% 77%  
512 7% 70%  
513 8% 63%  
514 12% 56%  
515 6% 44% Median
516 3% 38%  
517 2% 35%  
518 3% 33%  
519 3% 30%  
520 7% 27%  
521 3% 20%  
522 6% 17%  
523 4% 11%  
524 2% 7%  
525 0.8% 5%  
526 0.5% 5%  
527 0.2% 4%  
528 0.5% 4%  
529 0.6% 3%  
530 0.5% 3%  
531 0.3% 2%  
532 0.3% 2%  
533 0.1% 1.5%  
534 0% 1.4%  
535 0% 1.4%  
536 0% 1.4%  
537 0% 1.3%  
538 0% 1.3%  
539 0.1% 1.3%  
540 0% 1.2%  
541 0% 1.2%  
542 0% 1.2%  
543 0% 1.2%  
544 0% 1.1%  
545 0.1% 1.1%  
546 0.1% 1.1%  
547 0.1% 1.0%  
548 0.1% 0.8%  
549 0.2% 0.7%  
550 0.1% 0.5%  
551 0.1% 0.5%  
552 0% 0.4%  
553 0% 0.4%  
554 0% 0.4%  
555 0.1% 0.3%  
556 0.1% 0.3%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.8%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.1% 99.6%  
418 0.1% 99.5%  
419 0.1% 99.4%  
420 0.2% 99.3%  
421 0.3% 99.1%  
422 0.3% 98.8%  
423 0.3% 98%  
424 0.4% 98%  
425 0.6% 98%  
426 1.0% 97%  
427 1.3% 96%  
428 2% 95%  
429 1.3% 93%  
430 2% 92%  
431 3% 90%  
432 3% 87%  
433 3% 84%  
434 4% 81%  
435 5% 77%  
436 4% 72%  
437 4% 68%  
438 4% 64%  
439 8% 60%  
440 5% 51% Median
441 5% 47%  
442 5% 42%  
443 7% 37%  
444 4% 29%  
445 4% 26%  
446 3% 22%  
447 4% 18%  
448 4% 15%  
449 1.5% 11%  
450 2% 9%  
451 3% 8%  
452 2% 5%  
453 0.7% 4%  
454 0.6% 3%  
455 0.6% 2%  
456 0.6% 2%  
457 0.2% 0.9%  
458 0.1% 0.7%  
459 0.2% 0.5%  
460 0.2% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.8%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0.1% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.6%  
403 0.1% 99.5%  
404 0.2% 99.4%  
405 0.2% 99.2%  
406 0.2% 99.0%  
407 0.3% 98.8%  
408 0.4% 98.5%  
409 0.5% 98%  
410 0.7% 98%  
411 0.8% 97%  
412 1.2% 96%  
413 1.3% 95%  
414 2% 94%  
415 2% 92%  
416 2% 91%  
417 3% 88%  
418 3% 85%  
419 3% 82%  
420 4% 79%  
421 5% 74%  
422 6% 70%  
423 4% 63%  
424 5% 59%  
425 7% 54%  
426 5% 47% Median
427 4% 42%  
428 5% 38%  
429 4% 33%  
430 5% 29%  
431 3% 24%  
432 4% 21%  
433 3% 17%  
434 4% 14%  
435 2% 10%  
436 2% 8%  
437 2% 6%  
438 1.2% 5%  
439 1.0% 3%  
440 0.5% 2%  
441 0.5% 2%  
442 0.3% 1.4%  
443 0.4% 1.0%  
444 0.2% 0.7%  
445 0.2% 0.5%  
446 0.1% 0.3%  
447 0.1% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0.1%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.7%  
376 0.2% 99.6%  
377 0.2% 99.3%  
378 0.5% 99.2%  
379 0.4% 98.7%  
380 0.5% 98%  
381 1.0% 98%  
382 0.9% 97%  
383 2% 96%  
384 2% 94%  
385 2% 92%  
386 3% 90%  
387 4% 88%  
388 3% 84%  
389 5% 81%  
390 4% 76%  
391 4% 72%  
392 5% 68%  
393 5% 63%  
394 5% 58%  
395 6% 54% Median
396 5% 47%  
397 4% 42%  
398 6% 38%  
399 4% 32%  
400 5% 28%  
401 4% 23%  
402 3% 19%  
403 3% 16%  
404 3% 13%  
405 3% 11%  
406 2% 8%  
407 0.9% 6%  
408 1.0% 5%  
409 0.6% 4%  
410 1.0% 4%  
411 0.3% 3%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.2% 2%  
416 0.1% 1.3%  
417 0.1% 1.2%  
418 0.1% 1.1%  
419 0.1% 1.0%  
420 0.1% 0.9%  
421 0.1% 0.8%  
422 0.1% 0.7%  
423 0.1% 0.6%  
424 0.1% 0.6%  
425 0.1% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.4%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.7%  
362 0.1% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.1% 99.4%  
366 0.1% 99.3%  
367 0.1% 99.2%  
368 0.2% 99.0%  
369 0.2% 98.8%  
370 0.4% 98.6%  
371 0.5% 98%  
372 0.6% 98%  
373 0.7% 97%  
374 0.9% 96%  
375 1.0% 96%  
376 2% 95%  
377 1.5% 93%  
378 3% 91%  
379 1.5% 89%  
380 3% 87%  
381 3% 84%  
382 3% 80%  
383 5% 78%  
384 5% 73%  
385 5% 68%  
386 6% 63%  
387 4% 57%  
388 7% 54% Median
389 4% 47%  
390 5% 43%  
391 5% 37%  
392 6% 33%  
393 4% 27%  
394 4% 23%  
395 4% 19%  
396 3% 15%  
397 2% 12%  
398 3% 10%  
399 1.5% 8%  
400 2% 6%  
401 1.2% 5%  
402 0.7% 3%  
403 0.6% 3%  
404 0.7% 2%  
405 0.4% 1.3%  
406 0.3% 0.9%  
407 0.2% 0.6%  
408 0.2% 0.4%  
409 0.1% 0.3%  
410 0.1% 0.2%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.2% 99.6%  
362 0.2% 99.4%  
363 0.3% 99.2%  
364 0.4% 98.8%  
365 0.5% 98%  
366 1.2% 98%  
367 1.0% 97%  
368 1.2% 96%  
369 2% 95%  
370 2% 93%  
371 2% 91%  
372 3% 88%  
373 3% 86%  
374 4% 83%  
375 5% 79%  
376 5% 75%  
377 6% 70%  
378 5% 64%  
379 5% 59%  
380 6% 54%  
381 5% 48% Median
382 6% 44%  
383 4% 38%  
384 4% 34%  
385 4% 30%  
386 4% 26%  
387 3% 21%  
388 3% 18%  
389 2% 14%  
390 3% 13%  
391 2% 10%  
392 2% 8%  
393 1.0% 6%  
394 0.8% 5%  
395 0.8% 4%  
396 0.5% 3%  
397 0.6% 3%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.2% 2% Last Result
400 0.2% 2%  
401 0.2% 1.4%  
402 0.2% 1.2%  
403 0.1% 1.0%  
404 0.1% 0.9%  
405 0.1% 0.8%  
406 0.1% 0.7%  
407 0.1% 0.6%  
408 0% 0.5%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
319 0% 100%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.2% 99.7%  
324 0.2% 99.6%  
325 0.3% 99.4%  
326 0.4% 99.1%  
327 0.4% 98.7%  
328 0.6% 98%  
329 0.7% 98%  
330 1.0% 97%  
331 1.4% 96%  
332 1.3% 94%  
333 3% 93%  
334 3% 91%  
335 3% 87%  
336 3% 84%  
337 5% 81%  
338 4% 76%  
339 4% 72%  
340 5% 69% Last Result
341 6% 64%  
342 4% 58%  
343 6% 54% Median
344 5% 48%  
345 5% 42%  
346 4% 37%  
347 6% 33%  
348 4% 27%  
349 3% 23%  
350 3% 20%  
351 3% 17%  
352 2% 14%  
353 2% 12%  
354 2% 10%  
355 2% 8% Majority
356 1.3% 6%  
357 1.4% 5%  
358 0.5% 4%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.3% 2%  
362 0.3% 2%  
363 0.2% 1.3%  
364 0.2% 1.1%  
365 0.1% 1.0%  
366 0.1% 0.9%  
367 0.1% 0.8%  
368 0.1% 0.7%  
369 0.1% 0.6%  
370 0.1% 0.5%  
371 0.1% 0.4%  
372 0.1% 0.3%  
373 0% 0.2%  
374 0% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0.1% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.2% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.6%  
303 0.3% 99.4%  
304 0.4% 99.1%  
305 0.7% 98.7%  
306 0.6% 98%  
307 0.7% 97%  
308 1.2% 97%  
309 2% 95%  
310 1.5% 94%  
311 3% 92%  
312 2% 90%  
313 3% 88%  
314 4% 85%  
315 4% 81%  
316 4% 77%  
317 6% 73%  
318 5% 67%  
319 5% 63%  
320 4% 57%  
321 7% 53% Median
322 4% 46%  
323 6% 43%  
324 5% 37%  
325 5% 32%  
326 5% 27%  
327 3% 22%  
328 3% 20%  
329 3% 16%  
330 1.5% 13%  
331 3% 11%  
332 1.5% 9%  
333 2% 7%  
334 1.0% 5%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.7% 4%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.5% 2%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.2% 1.4%  
341 0.2% 1.2%  
342 0.1% 1.0%  
343 0.1% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.4%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
265 0% 100%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0.1% 99.9%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0% 99.7%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.5%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0.1% 99.2%  
282 0.1% 99.1%  
283 0.1% 99.0%  
284 0.1% 98.9%  
285 0.2% 98.8%  
286 0.2% 98.6%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.3% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.5% 98%  
291 0.8% 97%  
292 1.2% 96%  
293 0.9% 95%  
294 2% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 2% 91%  
297 3% 89%  
298 3% 87%  
299 4% 84%  
300 4% 79%  
301 4% 75%  
302 4% 72%  
303 4% 68%  
304 6% 64%  
305 6% 58%  
306 7% 52% Median
307 5% 44%  
308 4% 40%  
309 4% 35%  
310 4% 31%  
311 4% 27%  
312 4% 23%  
313 4% 18%  
314 2% 14%  
315 2% 12%  
316 2% 10%  
317 2% 8%  
318 2% 6%  
319 1.4% 4%  
320 0.8% 3%  
321 0.7% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.3% 1.2%  
324 0.3% 0.9%  
325 0.2% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
258 0% 100%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0.1% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.8%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.7%  
267 0.1% 99.6%  
268 0% 99.5%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0.1% 99.4%  
271 0.1% 99.3%  
272 0% 99.2%  
273 0.1% 99.1%  
274 0.1% 99.1%  
275 0.1% 99.0%  
276 0.1% 98.9%  
277 0.1% 98.8%  
278 0.2% 98.7%  
279 0.2% 98.5%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.3% 98%  
282 0.5% 98%  
283 0.4% 97%  
284 0.8% 97%  
285 1.5% 96%  
286 1.2% 95%  
287 1.3% 94%  
288 2% 92%  
289 4% 91%  
290 2% 87%  
291 3% 85%  
292 3% 82%  
293 4% 79%  
294 5% 76%  
295 4% 70%  
296 4% 67%  
297 6% 63%  
298 10% 57%  
299 3% 48% Median
300 4% 45% Last Result
301 3% 40%  
302 8% 37%  
303 6% 29%  
304 2% 23%  
305 3% 21%  
306 3% 17%  
307 4% 14%  
308 2% 11%  
309 2% 8%  
310 1.0% 6%  
311 1.4% 5%  
312 1.5% 4%  
313 0.5% 3%  
314 0.5% 2%  
315 0.5% 2%  
316 0.4% 1.1%  
317 0.2% 0.7%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.2% 99.6%  
236 0.2% 99.4%  
237 0.5% 99.3%  
238 0.4% 98.8%  
239 0.7% 98%  
240 0.9% 98%  
241 1.4% 97%  
242 2% 95%  
243 2% 94%  
244 2% 92%  
245 3% 90%  
246 3% 87%  
247 4% 84%  
248 3% 80%  
249 5% 77%  
250 5% 72%  
251 5% 67%  
252 5% 62%  
253 6% 57%  
254 5% 50% Median
255 6% 45%  
256 6% 40%  
257 4% 34%  
258 5% 30%  
259 4% 25%  
260 3% 21%  
261 3% 17%  
262 3% 14%  
263 1.3% 11%  
264 3% 10%  
265 1.4% 7%  
266 1.4% 6%  
267 1.0% 4%  
268 0.7% 3%  
269 0.6% 3%  
270 0.5% 2%  
271 0.5% 2%  
272 0.2% 1.1%  
273 0.2% 0.9%  
274 0.2% 0.7%  
275 0.1% 0.5%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0.1% 0.4%  
278 0.1% 0.3%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.8%  
170 0.2% 99.7%  
171 0.3% 99.5%  
172 0.5% 99.2%  
173 0.6% 98.6%  
174 0.9% 98%  
175 1.2% 97%  
176 2% 96%  
177 1.5% 94%  
178 3% 93%  
179 3% 90%  
180 4% 87%  
181 6% 84%  
182 3% 78%  
183 5% 75%  
184 7% 70%  
185 5% 63%  
186 5% 58%  
187 7% 53% Median
188 6% 46%  
189 5% 40%  
190 6% 34%  
191 4% 29%  
192 5% 24%  
193 3% 20%  
194 4% 17%  
195 2% 13%  
196 3% 11%  
197 2% 8%  
198 1.0% 5%  
199 1.2% 5%  
200 0.8% 3%  
201 0.9% 3%  
202 0.4% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.3%  
204 0.2% 0.9%  
205 0.1% 0.7%  
206 0.2% 0.5%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.3%  
209 0% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.8%  
123 0.1% 99.7%  
124 0.1% 99.7%  
125 0% 99.5%  
126 0.2% 99.5%  
127 0% 99.3%  
128 0.1% 99.3%  
129 0.1% 99.2%  
130 0% 99.1%  
131 0.1% 99.1%  
132 0.1% 99.0%  
133 0% 98.9%  
134 0.1% 98.9%  
135 0% 98.8%  
136 0% 98.8%  
137 0% 98.8%  
138 0% 98.7%  
139 0% 98.7%  
140 0% 98.7%  
141 0% 98.7%  
142 0% 98.7%  
143 0% 98.7%  
144 0% 98.6%  
145 0% 98.6%  
146 0.1% 98.6%  
147 0.1% 98.5%  
148 0.2% 98%  
149 0.3% 98%  
150 0.4% 98%  
151 0.6% 98%  
152 0.7% 97%  
153 0.8% 96%  
154 2% 96%  
155 3% 94%  
156 2% 91%  
157 3% 89%  
158 3% 86%  
159 4% 83%  
160 6% 80%  
161 7% 74%  
162 8% 67%  
163 5% 59%  
164 5% 55%  
165 5% 49% Median
166 7% 44%  
167 6% 37%  
168 5% 31%  
169 6% 26%  
170 4% 21%  
171 3% 16%  
172 2% 13%  
173 3% 11%  
174 3% 9%  
175 2% 5%  
176 0.9% 4%  
177 0.8% 3%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.4% 1.4%  
180 0.4% 1.0%  
181 0.2% 0.6%  
182 0.2% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations