Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 2–5 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.7–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.5% 17.5–19.7% 17.1–20.0% 16.9–20.3% 16.4–20.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.2–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 212 203–222 200–225 197–228 193–235
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 140 132–149 130–151 128–153 124–159
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 110 103–118 100–120 99–122 95–126
Alternative für Deutschland 94 87 81–95 79–96 77–98 74–102
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–73
Die Linke 69 53 48–59 46–61 45–62 43–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 41–51 39–52 38–54 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
188 0% 100%  
189 0% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.2% 99.6%  
194 0.2% 99.5%  
195 0.4% 99.3%  
196 0.7% 98.9%  
197 0.7% 98%  
198 1.0% 97%  
199 1.4% 96%  
200 1.0% 95% Last Result
201 1.2% 94%  
202 2% 93%  
203 3% 91%  
204 3% 88%  
205 5% 85%  
206 4% 79%  
207 4% 75%  
208 4% 71%  
209 5% 67%  
210 3% 62%  
211 5% 58%  
212 7% 53% Median
213 5% 46%  
214 4% 41%  
215 6% 37%  
216 5% 31%  
217 3% 26%  
218 3% 23%  
219 4% 20%  
220 2% 16%  
221 2% 14%  
222 3% 12%  
223 2% 9%  
224 1.4% 7%  
225 1.5% 6%  
226 1.1% 4%  
227 0.8% 3%  
228 0.6% 3%  
229 0.4% 2%  
230 0.2% 2%  
231 0.2% 1.4%  
232 0.2% 1.2%  
233 0.3% 1.0%  
234 0.1% 0.6%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0.1% 0.3%  
238 0% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.9%  
123 0.2% 99.8%  
124 0.2% 99.6%  
125 0.3% 99.5%  
126 0.7% 99.2%  
127 0.6% 98.5%  
128 0.7% 98%  
129 1.4% 97%  
130 2% 96%  
131 2% 93%  
132 3% 92%  
133 4% 89%  
134 3% 85%  
135 4% 82%  
136 6% 78%  
137 6% 72%  
138 4% 66%  
139 7% 62%  
140 7% 55% Median
141 4% 48%  
142 5% 44%  
143 8% 38%  
144 4% 30%  
145 5% 26%  
146 5% 22%  
147 3% 17%  
148 2% 13%  
149 3% 11%  
150 2% 8%  
151 1.1% 6%  
152 1.1% 5%  
153 1.2% 4%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.4% 2%  
156 0.4% 1.4%  
157 0.3% 1.0%  
158 0.2% 0.7%  
159 0.1% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.5% 99.5%  
97 0.4% 99.0%  
98 0.9% 98.5%  
99 1.1% 98%  
100 2% 96%  
101 2% 95%  
102 3% 93%  
103 4% 90%  
104 3% 86%  
105 5% 82%  
106 6% 77%  
107 5% 71%  
108 7% 66%  
109 7% 59%  
110 8% 52% Median
111 5% 44%  
112 8% 39%  
113 4% 31%  
114 5% 27%  
115 5% 22%  
116 3% 17%  
117 3% 14%  
118 3% 11%  
119 2% 8%  
120 2% 6%  
121 1.4% 4%  
122 1.0% 3%  
123 0.5% 2%  
124 0.6% 1.5%  
125 0.3% 0.9%  
126 0.2% 0.6%  
127 0.1% 0.4%  
128 0.1% 0.3%  
129 0% 0.2%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.4%  
76 0.6% 99.0%  
77 1.1% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 4% 91%  
82 5% 87%  
83 6% 82%  
84 6% 76%  
85 8% 70%  
86 7% 63%  
87 7% 55% Median
88 7% 49%  
89 7% 42%  
90 7% 35%  
91 6% 28%  
92 4% 22%  
93 4% 18%  
94 4% 14% Last Result
95 3% 10%  
96 3% 8%  
97 1.5% 5%  
98 1.1% 3%  
99 0.7% 2%  
100 0.5% 1.5%  
101 0.4% 1.0%  
102 0.2% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.0% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 4% 89%  
57 7% 85%  
58 7% 77%  
59 7% 71%  
60 9% 64%  
61 9% 55% Median
62 10% 46%  
63 6% 37%  
64 8% 30%  
65 5% 22%  
66 5% 17%  
67 4% 12%  
68 2% 8%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.3%  
73 0.3% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.9% 99.2%  
45 1.3% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 5% 87%  
50 7% 82%  
51 9% 75%  
52 8% 65%  
53 10% 57% Median
54 9% 47%  
55 8% 38%  
56 7% 30%  
57 7% 22%  
58 4% 16%  
59 4% 12%  
60 3% 8%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 1.1% 98%  
39 2% 97%  
40 4% 94%  
41 5% 90%  
42 8% 85%  
43 7% 78%  
44 10% 71%  
45 12% 61% Median
46 12% 49%  
47 9% 37%  
48 6% 28%  
49 6% 22%  
50 5% 15%  
51 3% 11%  
52 3% 8%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.3% 3%  
55 0.5% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 523 100% 513–533 511–537 508–542 504–562
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 458 100% 448–468 445–471 441–474 435–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 428 100% 417–438 414–441 411–444 402–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 413 100% 403–424 400–428 397–434 392–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 406 100% 395–416 391–419 388–421 376–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 383 100% 373–394 369–397 367–402 362–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 360 76% 350–371 347–375 344–379 339–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 318 0% 307–329 304–331 299–334 285–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 303 0% 293–314 290–318 288–321 283–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 296 0% 285–306 280–307 276–312 261–316
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 241–261 237–263 235–267 230–274
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 163 0% 155–172 152–175 150–178 146–182
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 155 0% 146–164 143–167 137–168 113–173

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 99.9%  
501 0% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.8%  
504 0.2% 99.7%  
505 0.2% 99.4%  
506 0.5% 99.3%  
507 0.4% 98.8%  
508 0.9% 98%  
509 0.9% 97%  
510 1.0% 97%  
511 2% 96%  
512 1.2% 94%  
513 3% 93%  
514 1.2% 89%  
515 3% 88%  
516 3% 85%  
517 4% 82%  
518 3% 78%  
519 5% 75%  
520 5% 70%  
521 6% 65%  
522 6% 59%  
523 4% 53% Median
524 11% 50%  
525 3% 39%  
526 7% 36%  
527 4% 30%  
528 5% 26%  
529 3% 21%  
530 3% 17%  
531 3% 15%  
532 2% 12%  
533 2% 10%  
534 2% 8%  
535 1.1% 7%  
536 0.6% 6%  
537 1.2% 5%  
538 0.2% 4%  
539 0.7% 4%  
540 0.1% 3%  
541 0.2% 3%  
542 0.2% 3%  
543 0.1% 2%  
544 0.1% 2%  
545 0% 2%  
546 0% 2%  
547 0% 2%  
548 0% 2%  
549 0% 2%  
550 0% 2%  
551 0% 2%  
552 0.1% 2%  
553 0.1% 2%  
554 0.1% 2%  
555 0.2% 2%  
556 0.2% 2%  
557 0.1% 2%  
558 0.2% 1.4%  
559 0.2% 1.3%  
560 0.2% 1.0%  
561 0.3% 0.9%  
562 0.1% 0.6%  
563 0.1% 0.5%  
564 0.1% 0.4%  
565 0.1% 0.3%  
566 0.1% 0.2%  
567 0.1% 0.2%  
568 0% 0.1%  
569 0% 0.1%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0% 99.7%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0.1% 99.6%  
436 0.1% 99.5%  
437 0.3% 99.3%  
438 0.3% 99.0%  
439 0.4% 98.8%  
440 0.6% 98%  
441 0.6% 98%  
442 0.6% 97%  
443 0.8% 97%  
444 0.6% 96%  
445 1.4% 95%  
446 1.0% 94%  
447 2% 93%  
448 2% 91%  
449 2% 88%  
450 3% 86%  
451 3% 83%  
452 3% 80%  
453 3% 77%  
454 5% 74%  
455 3% 69%  
456 5% 66%  
457 5% 62%  
458 8% 56% Median
459 3% 48%  
460 7% 45%  
461 4% 38%  
462 3% 34%  
463 4% 30%  
464 3% 26%  
465 4% 23%  
466 5% 19%  
467 2% 15%  
468 3% 12%  
469 2% 9%  
470 1.2% 7%  
471 1.1% 6%  
472 1.0% 5%  
473 0.8% 4%  
474 0.6% 3%  
475 0.6% 2%  
476 0.7% 2%  
477 0.3% 0.9%  
478 0.2% 0.6%  
479 0.2% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0.1% 99.8%  
399 0.1% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.7%  
401 0.1% 99.6%  
402 0.1% 99.6%  
403 0.1% 99.4%  
404 0.1% 99.4%  
405 0.2% 99.2%  
406 0.1% 99.1%  
407 0.3% 98.9%  
408 0.2% 98.7%  
409 0.4% 98%  
410 0.5% 98%  
411 0.6% 98%  
412 0.8% 97%  
413 1.0% 96%  
414 0.9% 95%  
415 1.2% 94%  
416 1.4% 93%  
417 2% 92%  
418 2% 90%  
419 2% 87%  
420 3% 86%  
421 3% 82%  
422 4% 80%  
423 5% 75%  
424 3% 70%  
425 4% 68%  
426 5% 63%  
427 5% 58%  
428 6% 53% Median
429 6% 47%  
430 4% 41%  
431 5% 37%  
432 5% 32%  
433 3% 27%  
434 4% 24%  
435 3% 20%  
436 4% 17%  
437 2% 14%  
438 2% 11%  
439 2% 9%  
440 1.5% 7%  
441 1.4% 6%  
442 0.9% 4%  
443 0.8% 3%  
444 0.8% 3%  
445 0.5% 2%  
446 0.4% 1.3%  
447 0.2% 0.9%  
448 0.2% 0.7%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0.1% 0.3%  
451 0.1% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.7%  
392 0.2% 99.6%  
393 0.2% 99.4%  
394 0.2% 99.3%  
395 0.3% 99.1%  
396 0.7% 98.8%  
397 0.8% 98%  
398 0.8% 97%  
399 1.3% 96%  
400 1.0% 95%  
401 1.4% 94%  
402 1.3% 93%  
403 2% 91%  
404 3% 90%  
405 4% 87%  
406 5% 83%  
407 4% 78%  
408 2% 74%  
409 4% 72%  
410 3% 68%  
411 5% 65%  
412 6% 60%  
413 6% 54% Median
414 7% 48%  
415 5% 41%  
416 3% 36%  
417 4% 33%  
418 2% 30%  
419 3% 28%  
420 5% 25%  
421 4% 19%  
422 3% 15%  
423 2% 12%  
424 1.2% 10%  
425 1.0% 9%  
426 0.9% 8%  
427 1.1% 7%  
428 1.1% 6%  
429 1.3% 5%  
430 0.4% 4%  
431 0.3% 3%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.1% 3%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.2% 2%  
436 0.1% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.2% 2%  
439 0.1% 2%  
440 0.3% 1.4%  
441 0.1% 1.1%  
442 0% 1.1%  
443 0.2% 1.0%  
444 0% 0.8%  
445 0.1% 0.8%  
446 0.2% 0.7%  
447 0.1% 0.5%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.2%  
453 0.1% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0% 99.7%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.6%  
376 0% 99.5%  
377 0.1% 99.5%  
378 0% 99.4%  
379 0.1% 99.3%  
380 0.1% 99.3%  
381 0.1% 99.2%  
382 0.1% 99.1%  
383 0.2% 99.1%  
384 0.2% 98.9%  
385 0.3% 98.7%  
386 0.3% 98%  
387 0.4% 98%  
388 0.4% 98%  
389 0.6% 97%  
390 0.8% 97%  
391 1.0% 96%  
392 0.8% 95%  
393 2% 94%  
394 2% 92%  
395 2% 91%  
396 3% 89%  
397 3% 86%  
398 3% 83%  
399 3% 80%  
400 3% 77%  
401 5% 74%  
402 4% 69%  
403 5% 64%  
404 4% 59%  
405 4% 55% Median
406 7% 51%  
407 4% 44%  
408 5% 40%  
409 4% 35%  
410 3% 31%  
411 6% 28%  
412 3% 22%  
413 3% 19%  
414 3% 17%  
415 3% 13%  
416 2% 11%  
417 2% 9%  
418 1.5% 7%  
419 1.2% 5%  
420 0.9% 4% Last Result
421 0.8% 3%  
422 0.5% 2%  
423 0.6% 2%  
424 0.4% 1.2%  
425 0.2% 0.9%  
426 0.2% 0.6%  
427 0.2% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0.1% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.6%  
363 0.3% 99.4%  
364 0.2% 99.1%  
365 0.4% 98.9%  
366 0.8% 98%  
367 0.6% 98%  
368 1.2% 97%  
369 1.2% 96%  
370 1.2% 95%  
371 1.4% 93%  
372 2% 92%  
373 3% 90%  
374 2% 87%  
375 3% 85%  
376 4% 82%  
377 3% 78%  
378 4% 75%  
379 3% 70%  
380 5% 67%  
381 6% 62%  
382 5% 56%  
383 6% 52% Median
384 6% 46%  
385 3% 40%  
386 5% 37%  
387 5% 32%  
388 4% 27%  
389 4% 24%  
390 3% 20%  
391 3% 17%  
392 2% 14%  
393 2% 12%  
394 2% 10%  
395 1.4% 9%  
396 0.8% 7%  
397 2% 6%  
398 0.7% 5%  
399 0.5% 4% Last Result
400 0.5% 4%  
401 0.3% 3%  
402 0.2% 3%  
403 0.2% 2%  
404 0.2% 2%  
405 0.2% 2%  
406 0.1% 2%  
407 0.1% 2%  
408 0.1% 2%  
409 0.2% 1.4%  
410 0.1% 1.2%  
411 0.1% 1.1%  
412 0.2% 1.0%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0% 0.7%  
415 0.1% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.6%  
417 0% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.8%  
339 0.2% 99.7%  
340 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
341 0.2% 99.2%  
342 0.4% 99.0%  
343 0.7% 98.7%  
344 0.5% 98%  
345 0.8% 97%  
346 1.0% 97%  
347 1.2% 96%  
348 1.5% 94%  
349 2% 93%  
350 2% 91%  
351 3% 89%  
352 4% 86%  
353 3% 82%  
354 4% 80%  
355 3% 76% Majority
356 5% 72%  
357 5% 68%  
358 4% 63%  
359 3% 58%  
360 6% 55% Median
361 5% 49%  
362 4% 43%  
363 5% 39%  
364 4% 35%  
365 4% 31%  
366 3% 27%  
367 5% 24%  
368 2% 19%  
369 3% 17%  
370 2% 14%  
371 2% 11%  
372 2% 9%  
373 1.2% 8%  
374 1.4% 7%  
375 0.8% 5%  
376 0.9% 4%  
377 0.5% 4%  
378 0.4% 3%  
379 0.4% 3%  
380 0.2% 2%  
381 0.2% 2%  
382 0.1% 2%  
383 0.2% 2%  
384 0.1% 2%  
385 0.1% 2%  
386 0.2% 1.4%  
387 0.1% 1.2%  
388 0.1% 1.1%  
389 0.2% 1.1%  
390 0.1% 0.9%  
391 0.1% 0.9%  
392 0% 0.7%  
393 0.1% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.6%  
395 0% 0.5%  
396 0.2% 0.4%  
397 0% 0.3%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0% 99.7%  
284 0.1% 99.6%  
285 0.1% 99.6%  
286 0% 99.4%  
287 0.1% 99.4%  
288 0.1% 99.3%  
289 0.1% 99.2%  
290 0.1% 99.1%  
291 0.2% 99.0%  
292 0.1% 98.8%  
293 0.2% 98.8%  
294 0.1% 98.6%  
295 0.1% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.4% 98%  
300 0.4% 97%  
301 0.5% 97%  
302 0.5% 96%  
303 0.7% 96%  
304 0.8% 95%  
305 2% 94%  
306 0.9% 92%  
307 2% 91%  
308 2% 89%  
309 2% 88%  
310 3% 85%  
311 3% 82%  
312 4% 79%  
313 3% 75%  
314 5% 73%  
315 5% 68%  
316 4% 63%  
317 5% 59%  
318 6% 54% Median
319 3% 48%  
320 5% 44%  
321 6% 39%  
322 4% 33%  
323 4% 29%  
324 4% 25%  
325 2% 21%  
326 4% 19% Last Result
327 3% 15%  
328 1.5% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 1.3% 8%  
331 2% 7%  
332 0.9% 5%  
333 1.0% 4%  
334 0.9% 3%  
335 0.4% 2%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.2%  
338 0.2% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.2% 99.7%  
283 0.2% 99.6%  
284 0.2% 99.4%  
285 0.4% 99.1%  
286 0.6% 98.8%  
287 0.5% 98%  
288 0.8% 98%  
289 0.9% 97% Last Result
290 1.2% 96%  
291 1.5% 95%  
292 2% 93%  
293 2% 91%  
294 3% 89%  
295 3% 87%  
296 3% 83%  
297 3% 81%  
298 6% 78%  
299 3% 72%  
300 4% 69%  
301 5% 65%  
302 4% 60%  
303 7% 56% Median
304 4% 49%  
305 4% 45%  
306 5% 41%  
307 4% 36%  
308 5% 31%  
309 3% 26%  
310 3% 23%  
311 3% 20%  
312 3% 17%  
313 3% 14%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 9%  
316 2% 8%  
317 0.8% 6%  
318 1.0% 5%  
319 0.8% 4%  
320 0.6% 3%  
321 0.4% 3%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.3% 2%  
325 0.2% 1.3%  
326 0.2% 1.1%  
327 0.1% 0.9%  
328 0.1% 0.9%  
329 0.1% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.7%  
331 0% 0.7%  
332 0.1% 0.6%  
333 0% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
250 0% 100%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0% 99.9%  
255 0.1% 99.9%  
256 0.1% 99.8%  
257 0% 99.6%  
258 0% 99.6%  
259 0% 99.6%  
260 0% 99.6%  
261 0.2% 99.5%  
262 0.2% 99.3%  
263 0.1% 99.1%  
264 0% 99.0%  
265 0% 99.0%  
266 0.1% 99.0%  
267 0.1% 98.9%  
268 0.3% 98.8%  
269 0.1% 98%  
270 0.1% 98%  
271 0.2% 98%  
272 0% 98%  
273 0.1% 98%  
274 0.3% 98%  
275 0.2% 98%  
276 0.2% 98%  
277 0.3% 97%  
278 0.2% 97%  
279 1.2% 97%  
280 1.1% 96%  
281 0.6% 95%  
282 0.3% 94%  
283 0.5% 94%  
284 2% 93%  
285 5% 91%  
286 3% 86%  
287 0.6% 83%  
288 1.1% 83%  
289 3% 82%  
290 6% 79%  
291 8% 73%  
292 2% 65%  
293 0.7% 63%  
294 5% 62%  
295 7% 57% Median
296 8% 50%  
297 4% 42%  
298 0.7% 38%  
299 2% 37%  
300 6% 35% Last Result
301 9% 29%  
302 3% 20%  
303 1.2% 17%  
304 0.8% 16%  
305 2% 15%  
306 6% 13%  
307 2% 7%  
308 0.5% 5%  
309 0.2% 5%  
310 0.8% 4%  
311 0.9% 3%  
312 1.2% 3%  
313 0.3% 1.3%  
314 0.1% 1.0%  
315 0.2% 0.9%  
316 0.2% 0.7%  
317 0.2% 0.5%  
318 0.1% 0.3%  
319 0% 0.2%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.2% 99.8%  
230 0.3% 99.6%  
231 0.2% 99.3%  
232 0.1% 99.1%  
233 0.1% 99.0%  
234 0.5% 98.9%  
235 1.1% 98%  
236 2% 97%  
237 1.5% 95%  
238 0.5% 94%  
239 0.3% 93%  
240 1.1% 93%  
241 5% 92%  
242 6% 87%  
243 4% 81%  
244 2% 77%  
245 0.6% 76%  
246 2% 75%  
247 6% 73%  
248 9% 66%  
249 8% 57%  
250 4% 49% Median
251 1.2% 45%  
252 1.0% 44%  
253 6% 43%  
254 7% 37%  
255 8% 30%  
256 4% 22%  
257 0.7% 18%  
258 0.5% 17%  
259 2% 17%  
260 4% 15%  
261 3% 11%  
262 2% 7%  
263 0.5% 5%  
264 0.1% 5%  
265 0.4% 4%  
266 0.8% 4%  
267 1.1% 3%  
268 0.8% 2%  
269 0.1% 1.4%  
270 0% 1.2%  
271 0.2% 1.2%  
272 0.2% 1.0%  
273 0.2% 0.8%  
274 0.2% 0.6%  
275 0% 0.5%  
276 0% 0.4%  
277 0.2% 0.4%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.2%  
280 0% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.6%  
147 0.3% 99.4%  
148 0.5% 99.1%  
149 0.6% 98.6%  
150 1.3% 98%  
151 0.9% 97%  
152 1.4% 96%  
153 2% 94%  
154 2% 92%  
155 2% 90%  
156 4% 88%  
157 5% 84%  
158 4% 79%  
159 5% 75%  
160 4% 70%  
161 7% 66%  
162 6% 59%  
163 5% 54% Median
164 6% 48%  
165 6% 42%  
166 6% 36%  
167 5% 31%  
168 4% 26%  
169 4% 21%  
170 3% 18%  
171 3% 15%  
172 3% 12%  
173 2% 10%  
174 2% 8%  
175 1.4% 6%  
176 0.8% 4%  
177 0.9% 3%  
178 0.6% 3%  
179 0.5% 2%  
180 0.3% 1.4%  
181 0.4% 1.1%  
182 0.2% 0.7%  
183 0.1% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.8%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.6%  
113 0.1% 99.5%  
114 0.1% 99.4%  
115 0.1% 99.3%  
116 0.1% 99.2%  
117 0.1% 99.1%  
118 0.2% 98.9%  
119 0.2% 98.8%  
120 0.2% 98.6%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.1% 98%  
123 0.1% 98%  
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0.1% 98%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0% 98%  
129 0% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0% 98%  
132 0% 98%  
133 0% 98%  
134 0% 98%  
135 0% 98%  
136 0.1% 98%  
137 0.1% 98%  
138 0.2% 97%  
139 0.2% 97%  
140 0.3% 97%  
141 0.5% 97%  
142 0.8% 96%  
143 0.9% 95%  
144 1.1% 95%  
145 2% 93%  
146 2% 91%  
147 3% 90%  
148 5% 87%  
149 3% 82%  
150 2% 79%  
151 7% 77%  
152 5% 70%  
153 3% 65%  
154 8% 62%  
155 5% 53% Median
156 6% 48%  
157 5% 42%  
158 6% 37%  
159 4% 31%  
160 5% 26%  
161 5% 22%  
162 3% 17%  
163 3% 14%  
164 3% 11%  
165 2% 9%  
166 1.1% 6%  
167 2% 5%  
168 0.9% 3%  
169 0.7% 2%  
170 0.6% 2%  
171 0.4% 1.3%  
172 0.3% 0.8%  
173 0.2% 0.6%  
174 0.2% 0.4%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0.1% 0.2%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

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