Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 9–12 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.5% 17.5–19.7% 17.2–20.0% 16.9–20.3% 16.4–20.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.3–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 209–228 206–230 204–233 199–238
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 140 131–148 129–150 127–152 124–156
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 109 102–117 100–119 98–121 95–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 76–89 75–92 73–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 61 55–66 53–68 52–70 50–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–58 46–60 45–62 43–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 41–50 39–52 38–53 36–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.2% 99.7%  
200 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
201 0.3% 99.2%  
202 0.3% 98.9%  
203 0.8% 98.6%  
204 0.8% 98%  
205 1.1% 97%  
206 1.2% 96%  
207 2% 95%  
208 3% 93%  
209 3% 90%  
210 3% 88%  
211 3% 85%  
212 5% 82%  
213 5% 78%  
214 3% 73%  
215 4% 69%  
216 5% 65%  
217 6% 60%  
218 5% 54% Median
219 4% 49%  
220 7% 45%  
221 8% 39%  
222 4% 30%  
223 4% 27%  
224 3% 23%  
225 4% 20%  
226 4% 16%  
227 2% 12%  
228 2% 10%  
229 3% 9%  
230 1.2% 6%  
231 1.1% 5%  
232 0.7% 4%  
233 0.8% 3%  
234 0.7% 2%  
235 0.3% 1.3%  
236 0.3% 1.0%  
237 0.2% 0.7%  
238 0.2% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.2% 99.7%  
124 0.3% 99.5%  
125 0.4% 99.2%  
126 0.5% 98.8%  
127 1.0% 98%  
128 0.9% 97%  
129 2% 97%  
130 2% 94%  
131 3% 92%  
132 3% 90%  
133 3% 86%  
134 4% 83%  
135 7% 79%  
136 3% 72%  
137 7% 69%  
138 5% 62%  
139 5% 56%  
140 7% 51% Median
141 6% 44%  
142 5% 38%  
143 6% 33%  
144 4% 27%  
145 4% 22%  
146 4% 18%  
147 3% 14%  
148 3% 11%  
149 2% 8%  
150 2% 6%  
151 1.2% 4%  
152 0.9% 3%  
153 0.6% 2%  
154 0.7% 2%  
155 0.4% 1.1%  
156 0.3% 0.7%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.5% 99.3%  
97 0.7% 98.8%  
98 1.0% 98%  
99 1.4% 97%  
100 2% 96%  
101 3% 94%  
102 3% 91%  
103 4% 89%  
104 5% 84%  
105 6% 79%  
106 5% 74%  
107 7% 69%  
108 7% 62%  
109 7% 54% Median
110 7% 48%  
111 6% 41%  
112 6% 35%  
113 5% 29%  
114 5% 24%  
115 5% 19%  
116 2% 14%  
117 4% 11%  
118 2% 8%  
119 2% 6%  
120 1.1% 4%  
121 0.9% 3%  
122 0.6% 2%  
123 0.5% 1.3%  
124 0.4% 0.8%  
125 0.2% 0.5%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.6% 98.9%  
73 2% 98%  
74 1.2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 4% 93%  
77 4% 89%  
78 6% 86%  
79 6% 80%  
80 6% 74%  
81 8% 68%  
82 6% 59%  
83 9% 54% Median
84 8% 45%  
85 5% 37%  
86 9% 32%  
87 5% 23%  
88 3% 18%  
89 5% 15%  
90 3% 10%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.0% 3%  
94 0.8% 2% Last Result
95 0.6% 1.4%  
96 0.3% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.0%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 6% 92%  
56 6% 86%  
57 5% 80%  
58 8% 75%  
59 9% 67%  
60 8% 58%  
61 11% 50% Median
62 8% 40%  
63 6% 31%  
64 6% 26%  
65 6% 20%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.9% 99.1%  
45 1.5% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 4% 95%  
48 5% 91%  
49 5% 86%  
50 8% 80%  
51 10% 73%  
52 10% 63%  
53 9% 53% Median
54 9% 44%  
55 8% 35%  
56 7% 27%  
57 6% 20%  
58 5% 14%  
59 3% 10%  
60 2% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 0.9% 99.2%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 4% 94%  
41 5% 90%  
42 8% 85%  
43 8% 77%  
44 10% 69%  
45 11% 58% Median
46 10% 48% Last Result
47 9% 38%  
48 9% 29%  
49 6% 21%  
50 5% 15%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.7%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 512 100% 503–522 501–524 498–526 494–531
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 456 100% 447–466 444–468 441–471 436–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 426 100% 416–436 413–439 410–441 406–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 403 100% 393–413 390–416 388–418 383–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 400 100% 390–410 386–413 384–415 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 373 98.9% 362–383 360–386 357–388 352–393
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 346 16% 336–356 333–360 331–362 326–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 306–327 304–330 301–332 297–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 309 0% 299–319 296–323 294–325 289–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 302 0% 292–312 289–315 286–317 282–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 239–259 236–262 234–264 229–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 161–179 159–181 157–184 153–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 154–171 151–173 149–176 145–180

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 99.9%  
490 0.1% 99.9%  
491 0.1% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.8%  
493 0.1% 99.7%  
494 0.2% 99.6%  
495 0.3% 99.4%  
496 0.4% 99.1%  
497 0.5% 98.7%  
498 1.0% 98%  
499 0.9% 97%  
500 1.3% 96%  
501 1.2% 95%  
502 3% 94%  
503 2% 91%  
504 3% 89%  
505 3% 87%  
506 4% 84%  
507 5% 80%  
508 4% 75%  
509 5% 71%  
510 5% 66%  
511 5% 61%  
512 6% 56% Median
513 6% 50%  
514 4% 44%  
515 6% 40%  
516 3% 34%  
517 5% 30%  
518 4% 25%  
519 5% 22%  
520 3% 17%  
521 3% 14%  
522 3% 11%  
523 2% 8%  
524 2% 6%  
525 1.0% 4%  
526 0.9% 3%  
527 0.7% 2%  
528 0.6% 2%  
529 0.2% 1.1%  
530 0.3% 0.8%  
531 0.1% 0.5%  
532 0.2% 0.4%  
533 0.1% 0.2%  
534 0.1% 0.1%  
535 0% 0.1%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.2% 99.8%  
436 0.1% 99.6%  
437 0.4% 99.5%  
438 0.2% 99.1%  
439 0.3% 98.8%  
440 0.7% 98%  
441 0.7% 98%  
442 0.9% 97%  
443 1.0% 96%  
444 2% 95%  
445 2% 93%  
446 2% 92%  
447 3% 90%  
448 3% 87%  
449 4% 84%  
450 3% 81%  
451 4% 78%  
452 5% 73%  
453 5% 69%  
454 5% 64%  
455 4% 59%  
456 6% 55% Median
457 5% 49%  
458 5% 44%  
459 4% 38%  
460 6% 34%  
461 3% 28%  
462 4% 25%  
463 4% 21%  
464 3% 17%  
465 3% 14%  
466 2% 11%  
467 2% 9%  
468 2% 7%  
469 1.2% 5%  
470 0.8% 4%  
471 0.9% 3%  
472 0.6% 2%  
473 0.4% 1.5%  
474 0.3% 1.1%  
475 0.2% 0.8%  
476 0.2% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.2%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0.3% 99.6%  
407 0.3% 99.3%  
408 0.4% 99.0%  
409 0.5% 98.6%  
410 0.7% 98%  
411 0.9% 97%  
412 1.0% 97%  
413 1.3% 96%  
414 2% 94%  
415 2% 93%  
416 2% 91%  
417 2% 88%  
418 3% 86%  
419 4% 83%  
420 3% 78%  
421 4% 76%  
422 3% 71%  
423 5% 68%  
424 5% 62%  
425 6% 58% Median
426 5% 52%  
427 5% 47%  
428 5% 42%  
429 4% 37%  
430 5% 33%  
431 4% 28%  
432 5% 25%  
433 3% 20%  
434 3% 17%  
435 3% 14%  
436 2% 11%  
437 2% 9%  
438 1.4% 7%  
439 2% 6%  
440 0.9% 4%  
441 0.7% 3%  
442 0.6% 2%  
443 0.4% 2%  
444 0.4% 1.3%  
445 0.2% 0.8%  
446 0.2% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.2% 99.6%  
384 0.2% 99.3%  
385 0.5% 99.1%  
386 0.4% 98.7%  
387 0.7% 98%  
388 0.9% 98%  
389 1.2% 97%  
390 1.1% 95%  
391 2% 94%  
392 2% 93%  
393 2% 91%  
394 3% 89%  
395 3% 86%  
396 3% 83%  
397 4% 81%  
398 5% 77%  
399 4% 72%  
400 4% 68%  
401 5% 64%  
402 5% 59%  
403 6% 54% Median
404 5% 48%  
405 4% 43%  
406 5% 39%  
407 4% 34%  
408 4% 30%  
409 4% 26%  
410 4% 22%  
411 2% 18%  
412 4% 16%  
413 2% 12%  
414 2% 10%  
415 2% 8%  
416 1.4% 6%  
417 0.8% 4%  
418 1.1% 4%  
419 0.6% 2%  
420 0.5% 2%  
421 0.4% 1.4%  
422 0.2% 1.0%  
423 0.2% 0.8%  
424 0.2% 0.6%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.2% 99.6%  
380 0.2% 99.5%  
381 0.5% 99.3%  
382 0.5% 98.8%  
383 0.6% 98%  
384 0.8% 98%  
385 1.0% 97%  
386 1.2% 96%  
387 1.5% 95%  
388 1.2% 93%  
389 2% 92%  
390 3% 90%  
391 3% 87%  
392 3% 85%  
393 4% 82%  
394 4% 78%  
395 4% 74%  
396 3% 70%  
397 7% 67%  
398 6% 60%  
399 4% 54% Median
400 6% 51%  
401 5% 44%  
402 4% 40%  
403 4% 35%  
404 3% 31%  
405 5% 28%  
406 3% 23%  
407 5% 20%  
408 2% 15%  
409 2% 13%  
410 3% 11%  
411 1.5% 8%  
412 1.1% 6%  
413 1.1% 5%  
414 0.9% 4%  
415 0.6% 3%  
416 0.8% 2%  
417 0.5% 2%  
418 0.3% 1.2%  
419 0.2% 0.9%  
420 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0.3% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.4%  
354 0.3% 99.2%  
355 0.4% 98.9% Majority
356 0.6% 98.5%  
357 0.7% 98%  
358 1.0% 97%  
359 1.1% 96%  
360 0.9% 95%  
361 2% 94%  
362 2% 92%  
363 2% 90%  
364 2% 88%  
365 3% 86%  
366 4% 83%  
367 3% 79%  
368 6% 76%  
369 3% 71%  
370 4% 67%  
371 8% 63%  
372 4% 56% Median
373 4% 51%  
374 6% 48%  
375 6% 42%  
376 3% 37%  
377 5% 33%  
378 5% 28%  
379 3% 24%  
380 3% 20%  
381 3% 17%  
382 2% 14%  
383 2% 12%  
384 3% 10%  
385 1.2% 7%  
386 1.0% 6%  
387 1.4% 5%  
388 1.0% 3%  
389 0.5% 2%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.4% 1.5%  
392 0.3% 1.0%  
393 0.3% 0.7%  
394 0.1% 0.4%  
395 0.1% 0.3%  
396 0% 0.2%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0% 0.1%  
399 0% 0.1% Last Result
400 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.2% 99.6%  
327 0.3% 99.3%  
328 0.2% 99.1%  
329 0.4% 98.9%  
330 0.4% 98%  
331 0.9% 98%  
332 1.4% 97%  
333 1.5% 96%  
334 2% 94%  
335 2% 92%  
336 1.4% 91%  
337 1.4% 89%  
338 2% 88%  
339 3% 86%  
340 4% 83% Last Result
341 5% 78%  
342 4% 73%  
343 4% 69%  
344 4% 65%  
345 4% 61%  
346 8% 57% Median
347 6% 49%  
348 3% 43%  
349 4% 40%  
350 3% 35%  
351 3% 32%  
352 5% 29%  
353 5% 24%  
354 4% 19%  
355 4% 16% Majority
356 2% 12%  
357 2% 10%  
358 1.2% 8%  
359 2% 7%  
360 1.5% 5%  
361 0.6% 4%  
362 0.7% 3%  
363 0.6% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.4% 1.4%  
366 0.4% 1.0%  
367 0.3% 0.7%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.3% 99.5%  
298 0.6% 99.2%  
299 0.3% 98.7%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.8% 97%  
303 1.2% 97%  
304 2% 95%  
305 2% 93%  
306 2% 91%  
307 2% 89%  
308 2% 88%  
309 4% 86%  
310 5% 82%  
311 5% 78%  
312 3% 73%  
313 3% 70%  
314 4% 67%  
315 6% 62%  
316 5% 56% Median
317 6% 51%  
318 5% 44%  
319 4% 40%  
320 4% 36%  
321 5% 32%  
322 4% 27%  
323 5% 23%  
324 4% 19%  
325 2% 15%  
326 2% 13% Last Result
327 2% 11%  
328 2% 9%  
329 1.5% 7%  
330 2% 5%  
331 1.0% 4%  
332 0.6% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.3%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.3% 99.6% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.4%  
291 0.3% 99.1%  
292 0.5% 98.8%  
293 0.8% 98%  
294 0.6% 98%  
295 0.9% 97%  
296 1.1% 96%  
297 1.1% 95%  
298 1.5% 94%  
299 3% 92%  
300 2% 89%  
301 2% 87%  
302 5% 85%  
303 3% 80%  
304 5% 77%  
305 3% 72%  
306 4% 69%  
307 4% 65%  
308 5% 60%  
309 6% 56%  
310 4% 49% Median
311 6% 46%  
312 7% 40%  
313 3% 33%  
314 4% 30%  
315 4% 26%  
316 4% 22%  
317 3% 18%  
318 3% 15%  
319 3% 13%  
320 2% 10%  
321 1.2% 8%  
322 1.5% 7%  
323 1.2% 5%  
324 1.0% 4%  
325 0.8% 3%  
326 0.6% 2%  
327 0.5% 2%  
328 0.5% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 0.7%  
330 0.2% 0.5%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.2% 99.5%  
283 0.3% 99.3%  
284 0.3% 99.0%  
285 0.6% 98.7%  
286 0.8% 98%  
287 0.7% 97%  
288 1.1% 97%  
289 2% 96%  
290 1.0% 94%  
291 2% 93%  
292 3% 91%  
293 1.5% 88%  
294 4% 86%  
295 3% 82%  
296 5% 80%  
297 4% 74%  
298 3% 70%  
299 4% 67%  
300 6% 63% Last Result
301 4% 57%  
302 6% 53% Median
303 6% 47%  
304 5% 41%  
305 5% 37%  
306 4% 32%  
307 4% 28%  
308 4% 24%  
309 4% 20%  
310 2% 16%  
311 3% 14%  
312 3% 11%  
313 1.2% 9%  
314 2% 7%  
315 1.4% 6%  
316 0.7% 4%  
317 1.1% 3%  
318 0.5% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.5% 1.4%  
321 0.3% 0.9%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.2% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.2% 99.7%  
230 0.3% 99.5%  
231 0.3% 99.2%  
232 0.6% 98.9%  
233 0.4% 98%  
234 0.8% 98%  
235 0.9% 97%  
236 2% 96%  
237 1.2% 95%  
238 2% 93%  
239 3% 92%  
240 2% 89%  
241 5% 87%  
242 3% 82%  
243 3% 79%  
244 5% 76%  
245 5% 72%  
246 4% 67%  
247 6% 63%  
248 5% 57%  
249 5% 52% Median
250 4% 47%  
251 8% 43%  
252 4% 36%  
253 3% 32%  
254 6% 28%  
255 3% 22%  
256 3% 19%  
257 3% 16%  
258 2% 13%  
259 2% 10%  
260 2% 8%  
261 2% 7%  
262 1.3% 5%  
263 0.9% 4%  
264 0.9% 3%  
265 0.6% 2%  
266 0.6% 2%  
267 0.3% 1.0%  
268 0.2% 0.7%  
269 0.1% 0.5%  
270 0.2% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.6%  
154 0.5% 99.3%  
155 0.6% 98.8%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 2% 97%  
159 2% 95%  
160 2% 93%  
161 1.5% 91%  
162 3% 90%  
163 4% 87%  
164 5% 83%  
165 5% 78%  
166 4% 73%  
167 4% 69%  
168 7% 65%  
169 8% 58%  
170 5% 49% Median
171 5% 45%  
172 5% 39%  
173 5% 35%  
174 6% 30%  
175 5% 24%  
176 3% 19%  
177 2% 16%  
178 3% 14%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 2% 6%  
182 1.1% 4%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.9% 3%  
185 0.7% 2%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0.1% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.2% 99.7%  
146 0.3% 99.5%  
147 0.4% 99.2%  
148 0.6% 98.8%  
149 0.8% 98%  
150 1.0% 97%  
151 2% 96%  
152 2% 95%  
153 2% 93%  
154 2% 91%  
155 4% 88%  
156 5% 85%  
157 4% 80%  
158 4% 76%  
159 8% 72%  
160 5% 65%  
161 6% 60%  
162 6% 54% Median
163 5% 48%  
164 6% 43%  
165 6% 37%  
166 4% 31%  
167 5% 27%  
168 5% 23%  
169 3% 18%  
170 3% 15%  
171 3% 12%  
172 2% 9%  
173 2% 7%  
174 1.4% 5%  
175 0.8% 4%  
176 0.8% 3%  
177 0.6% 2%  
178 0.4% 1.3%  
179 0.2% 0.9%  
180 0.2% 0.6%  
181 0.2% 0.4%  
182 0.1% 0.3%  
183 0.1% 0.2%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations