Opinion Poll by Kantar, 8–14 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.3–29.6% 26.9–30.0% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 18.0–20.0% 17.7–20.3% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.1–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.1–18.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.3–10.9% 9.1–11.1% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 6.0–7.3% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.4–8.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 214 206–223 203–226 201–229 197–235
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 136–151 133–153 132–156 128–160
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 114–128 112–130 110–132 106–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–82 68–84 67–85 64–88
Die Linke 69 61 55–66 54–68 53–69 50–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 45–54 44–56 42–58 40–60
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 41–50 40–51 38–53 0–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.2% 99.7%  
197 0.2% 99.5%  
198 0.3% 99.3%  
199 0.6% 99.0%  
200 0.7% 98% Last Result
201 1.2% 98%  
202 1.2% 97%  
203 2% 95%  
204 2% 94%  
205 2% 92%  
206 3% 90%  
207 3% 87%  
208 6% 84%  
209 4% 78%  
210 5% 74%  
211 4% 69%  
212 6% 65%  
213 6% 59%  
214 7% 53% Median
215 4% 46%  
216 6% 42%  
217 4% 36%  
218 5% 32%  
219 4% 27%  
220 4% 23%  
221 5% 19%  
222 3% 14%  
223 2% 11%  
224 2% 9%  
225 2% 8%  
226 1.1% 6%  
227 1.5% 5%  
228 0.8% 3%  
229 0.6% 3%  
230 0.4% 2%  
231 0.4% 2%  
232 0.3% 1.1%  
233 0.2% 0.9%  
234 0.1% 0.6%  
235 0.1% 0.5%  
236 0.1% 0.4%  
237 0% 0.3%  
238 0.1% 0.2%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.3% 99.7%  
129 0.3% 99.4%  
130 0.7% 99.1%  
131 0.8% 98%  
132 1.1% 98%  
133 1.5% 96%  
134 2% 95%  
135 2% 93%  
136 3% 90%  
137 4% 87%  
138 5% 83%  
139 4% 78%  
140 6% 74%  
141 6% 68%  
142 8% 62%  
143 6% 54% Median
144 7% 47%  
145 6% 40%  
146 6% 34%  
147 4% 28%  
148 5% 23%  
149 4% 18%  
150 3% 14%  
151 3% 12%  
152 2% 9%  
153 2% 7%  
154 1.4% 5%  
155 1.0% 4%  
156 0.7% 3%  
157 0.6% 2%  
158 0.3% 1.2%  
159 0.3% 0.9%  
160 0.2% 0.5%  
161 0.1% 0.4%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.9%  
106 0.2% 99.7%  
107 0.3% 99.5%  
108 0.4% 99.1%  
109 0.7% 98.7%  
110 0.9% 98%  
111 1.5% 97%  
112 2% 96%  
113 3% 93%  
114 4% 91%  
115 5% 86%  
116 6% 82%  
117 6% 75%  
118 5% 69%  
119 6% 64%  
120 6% 58%  
121 7% 52% Median
122 6% 45%  
123 7% 38%  
124 6% 32%  
125 6% 26%  
126 5% 19%  
127 4% 15%  
128 3% 11%  
129 2% 8%  
130 2% 6%  
131 1.2% 4%  
132 0.9% 3%  
133 0.6% 2%  
134 0.5% 2%  
135 0.4% 1.1%  
136 0.3% 0.7%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 1.1% 98.9%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 2% 94%  
70 4% 92%  
71 6% 88%  
72 6% 81%  
73 8% 75%  
74 10% 67%  
75 7% 57%  
76 9% 51% Median
77 8% 42%  
78 7% 34%  
79 7% 26%  
80 5% 20%  
81 4% 15%  
82 4% 11%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 1.1% 99.0%  
53 1.5% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 6% 89%  
57 6% 84%  
58 8% 77%  
59 9% 70%  
60 10% 61%  
61 8% 50% Median
62 10% 43%  
63 8% 33%  
64 6% 25%  
65 7% 19%  
66 3% 12%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.4% 3% Last Result
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.7% 99.4%  
42 1.2% 98.7%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 96%  
45 4% 92%  
46 7% 88% Last Result
47 9% 82%  
48 12% 73%  
49 10% 61%  
50 10% 50% Median
51 11% 41%  
52 8% 30%  
53 7% 22%  
54 5% 15%  
55 4% 10%  
56 2% 6%  
57 1.5% 4%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 0.6% 1.5%  
60 0.5% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 1.0% 98%  
39 2% 97%  
40 4% 95%  
41 6% 91%  
42 7% 85%  
43 9% 78%  
44 11% 69%  
45 9% 58% Median
46 12% 49%  
47 9% 37%  
48 9% 28%  
49 6% 19%  
50 5% 13%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 527 100% 519–536 517–539 515–542 510–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 452 100% 442–461 439–464 436–466 430–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 430 100% 420–439 417–442 414–444 407–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 397–417 395–421 393–423 388–441
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 100% 375–394 372–398 370–401 365–414
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 384 99.8% 375–394 371–397 368–399 360–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 4% 330–349 327–352 324–356 321–366
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 325 0.2% 315–334 312–338 310–341 306–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 299–318 296–321 292–323 278–328
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 309 0% 299–319 296–321 292–323 278–328
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 264 0% 255–273 252–276 249–280 246–286
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 182 0% 173–190 171–193 169–195 165–200
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 158–174 155–176 151–179 126–182

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0.1% 99.9%  
508 0.1% 99.9%  
509 0.1% 99.8%  
510 0.3% 99.7%  
511 0.2% 99.4%  
512 0.5% 99.2%  
513 0.6% 98.7%  
514 0.6% 98%  
515 0.9% 98%  
516 1.4% 97%  
517 2% 95%  
518 2% 93%  
519 3% 91%  
520 2% 88%  
521 3% 86%  
522 4% 83%  
523 7% 79%  
524 5% 72%  
525 6% 67%  
526 6% 61%  
527 5% 55%  
528 7% 50% Median
529 6% 43%  
530 6% 38%  
531 4% 32%  
532 6% 28%  
533 4% 22%  
534 3% 18%  
535 4% 15%  
536 2% 11%  
537 2% 9%  
538 2% 7%  
539 0.8% 5%  
540 0.9% 5%  
541 0.9% 4%  
542 0.4% 3%  
543 0.3% 2%  
544 0.2% 2%  
545 0.1% 2%  
546 0.1% 2%  
547 0.1% 2%  
548 0% 2%  
549 0% 2%  
550 0% 2%  
551 0% 2%  
552 0% 2%  
553 0% 2%  
554 0% 2%  
555 0% 2%  
556 0.1% 2%  
557 0% 1.4%  
558 0% 1.4%  
559 0.2% 1.4%  
560 0% 1.2%  
561 0.1% 1.1%  
562 0.1% 1.1%  
563 0.1% 1.0%  
564 0.1% 0.9%  
565 0.2% 0.7%  
566 0.1% 0.6%  
567 0.1% 0.5%  
568 0.1% 0.4%  
569 0.1% 0.3%  
570 0.1% 0.3%  
571 0.1% 0.2%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0.1%  
576 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.6%  
430 0.1% 99.5%  
431 0.2% 99.5%  
432 0.3% 99.3%  
433 0.3% 99.0%  
434 0.3% 98.7%  
435 0.3% 98%  
436 0.6% 98%  
437 0.7% 97%  
438 0.9% 97%  
439 1.0% 96%  
440 0.9% 95%  
441 2% 94%  
442 3% 92%  
443 2% 89%  
444 3% 88%  
445 4% 85%  
446 3% 81%  
447 4% 78%  
448 4% 74%  
449 6% 71%  
450 5% 65%  
451 6% 59%  
452 6% 53% Median
453 6% 47%  
454 5% 41%  
455 5% 36%  
456 5% 31%  
457 4% 26%  
458 5% 23%  
459 3% 18%  
460 3% 15%  
461 3% 12%  
462 2% 9%  
463 2% 7%  
464 1.2% 6%  
465 1.1% 4%  
466 0.8% 3%  
467 1.0% 2%  
468 0.4% 1.4%  
469 0.3% 1.0%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.1% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0.1% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.6%  
407 0.1% 99.5%  
408 0.3% 99.4%  
409 0.1% 99.1%  
410 0.3% 99.0%  
411 0.3% 98.8%  
412 0.3% 98%  
413 0.4% 98%  
414 0.6% 98%  
415 0.9% 97%  
416 0.8% 96%  
417 1.2% 95%  
418 1.4% 94%  
419 2% 93%  
420 2% 91%  
421 2% 88%  
422 2% 86%  
423 5% 84%  
424 5% 79%  
425 4% 75%  
426 5% 71%  
427 3% 66%  
428 7% 62%  
429 4% 55%  
430 6% 51% Median
431 6% 45%  
432 6% 39%  
433 4% 33%  
434 3% 29%  
435 3% 25%  
436 6% 22%  
437 3% 16%  
438 2% 13%  
439 3% 11%  
440 2% 8%  
441 1.4% 7%  
442 1.0% 5%  
443 1.3% 4%  
444 0.9% 3%  
445 0.5% 2%  
446 0.5% 1.5%  
447 0.3% 1.0%  
448 0.2% 0.7%  
449 0.2% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.3%  
451 0.1% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.3% 99.6%  
389 0.4% 99.3%  
390 0.4% 98.9%  
391 0.3% 98.5%  
392 0.7% 98%  
393 1.3% 98%  
394 1.2% 96%  
395 1.3% 95%  
396 2% 94%  
397 2% 92%  
398 3% 90%  
399 3% 87%  
400 2% 83%  
401 3% 81%  
402 7% 78%  
403 5% 71%  
404 5% 67%  
405 4% 61%  
406 4% 57%  
407 6% 53% Median
408 7% 47%  
409 4% 40%  
410 3% 36%  
411 4% 32%  
412 6% 28%  
413 4% 22%  
414 3% 18%  
415 2% 15%  
416 2% 13%  
417 2% 11%  
418 2% 9%  
419 0.9% 6%  
420 0.5% 6%  
421 1.3% 5%  
422 0.7% 4%  
423 0.6% 3%  
424 0.2% 2%  
425 0.2% 2%  
426 0.2% 2%  
427 0.2% 2%  
428 0.2% 2%  
429 0.1% 1.4%  
430 0.1% 1.4%  
431 0.1% 1.3%  
432 0.2% 1.2%  
433 0.1% 1.0%  
434 0% 0.8%  
435 0% 0.8%  
436 0% 0.7%  
437 0.1% 0.7%  
438 0% 0.6%  
439 0% 0.6%  
440 0% 0.6%  
441 0.2% 0.5%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.1%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0.1%  
448 0% 0.1%  
449 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.3% 99.4%  
367 0.5% 99.2%  
368 0.4% 98.7%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 0.8% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 1.4% 96%  
373 2% 95%  
374 2% 93%  
375 2% 91%  
376 3% 89%  
377 4% 86%  
378 3% 82%  
379 4% 79%  
380 5% 75%  
381 5% 70%  
382 6% 65%  
383 5% 60%  
384 6% 54%  
385 5% 48% Median
386 4% 44%  
387 6% 40%  
388 4% 34%  
389 6% 29%  
390 3% 24%  
391 4% 20%  
392 2% 17%  
393 3% 15%  
394 2% 12%  
395 2% 10%  
396 1.4% 8%  
397 0.9% 6%  
398 1.1% 5%  
399 0.7% 4% Last Result
400 0.7% 4%  
401 0.5% 3%  
402 0.2% 2%  
403 0.3% 2%  
404 0.1% 2%  
405 0.2% 2%  
406 0.1% 1.5%  
407 0.1% 1.3%  
408 0.2% 1.2%  
409 0.1% 1.0%  
410 0.1% 0.9%  
411 0.1% 0.8%  
412 0.1% 0.7%  
413 0.1% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0% 0.5%  
416 0% 0.4%  
417 0.1% 0.4%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0% 99.6%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.2% 99.4%  
362 0.1% 99.2%  
363 0.2% 99.1%  
364 0.2% 98.9%  
365 0.3% 98.7%  
366 0.2% 98%  
367 0.3% 98%  
368 0.6% 98%  
369 0.6% 97%  
370 0.6% 97%  
371 1.4% 96%  
372 1.1% 95%  
373 1.4% 94%  
374 1.2% 92%  
375 3% 91%  
376 3% 88%  
377 2% 85%  
378 3% 83%  
379 6% 80%  
380 4% 73%  
381 3% 69%  
382 5% 66%  
383 5% 61%  
384 7% 56%  
385 5% 49% Median
386 4% 44%  
387 6% 40%  
388 4% 34%  
389 4% 30%  
390 4% 26%  
391 4% 22%  
392 3% 17%  
393 3% 15%  
394 2% 11%  
395 2% 9%  
396 2% 7%  
397 1.0% 5%  
398 2% 4%  
399 0.9% 3%  
400 0.5% 2%  
401 0.4% 2%  
402 0.5% 1.2%  
403 0.2% 0.7%  
404 0.1% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.2% 99.7%  
321 0.4% 99.5%  
322 0.3% 99.1%  
323 0.5% 98.8%  
324 0.9% 98%  
325 0.7% 97%  
326 0.9% 97%  
327 1.1% 96%  
328 2% 95%  
329 2% 93%  
330 2% 91%  
331 3% 89%  
332 3% 86%  
333 5% 83%  
334 4% 78%  
335 5% 73%  
336 6% 69%  
337 5% 63%  
338 4% 58%  
339 5% 53%  
340 4% 49% Last Result, Median
341 5% 44%  
342 4% 40%  
343 6% 36%  
344 4% 30%  
345 4% 26%  
346 4% 22%  
347 3% 18%  
348 2% 14%  
349 2% 12%  
350 2% 10%  
351 1.4% 8%  
352 1.2% 6%  
353 0.8% 5%  
354 0.6% 4%  
355 0.8% 4% Majority
356 0.3% 3%  
357 0.4% 2%  
358 0.2% 2%  
359 0.2% 2%  
360 0.2% 1.5%  
361 0.2% 1.3%  
362 0.1% 1.1%  
363 0.2% 1.0%  
364 0.1% 0.8%  
365 0.1% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.5%  
368 0.1% 0.4%  
369 0% 0.3%  
370 0% 0.3%  
371 0% 0.2%  
372 0% 0.2%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.6%  
306 0.2% 99.5%  
307 0.5% 99.3%  
308 0.4% 98.8%  
309 0.5% 98%  
310 0.9% 98%  
311 2% 97%  
312 1.0% 96%  
313 2% 95%  
314 2% 93%  
315 2% 91%  
316 3% 89%  
317 3% 85%  
318 4% 83%  
319 4% 78%  
320 4% 74%  
321 4% 70%  
322 6% 66%  
323 4% 60%  
324 5% 56%  
325 7% 51% Median
326 5% 44%  
327 5% 39%  
328 3% 34%  
329 4% 31%  
330 6% 27%  
331 3% 20%  
332 2% 17%  
333 3% 15%  
334 3% 12%  
335 1.2% 9%  
336 1.4% 8%  
337 1.1% 6%  
338 1.4% 5%  
339 0.6% 4%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.6% 3%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.2% 2%  
344 0.3% 2%  
345 0.2% 1.3%  
346 0.2% 1.1%  
347 0.1% 0.9%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.4%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.6%  
279 0% 99.3%  
280 0.1% 99.3%  
281 0% 99.3%  
282 0.1% 99.2%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.1% 99.0%  
285 0.1% 98.9%  
286 0.2% 98.8%  
287 0.1% 98.6%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.4% 98%  
293 0.5% 97%  
294 0.7% 97%  
295 0.8% 96%  
296 0.9% 95%  
297 1.3% 94%  
298 2% 93%  
299 2% 91%  
300 2% 90% Last Result
301 3% 87%  
302 5% 84%  
303 3% 79%  
304 4% 75%  
305 5% 71%  
306 5% 66%  
307 4% 62%  
308 5% 58%  
309 5% 53% Median
310 5% 48%  
311 4% 43%  
312 5% 39%  
313 6% 34%  
314 6% 29%  
315 3% 23%  
316 4% 19%  
317 4% 16%  
318 2% 12%  
319 3% 10%  
320 1.5% 7%  
321 1.3% 6%  
322 1.2% 4%  
323 0.9% 3%  
324 0.5% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.5% 1.4%  
327 0.2% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0.1% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.6%  
279 0.1% 99.5%  
280 0% 99.4%  
281 0.2% 99.4%  
282 0.1% 99.2%  
283 0.1% 99.1%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.1% 98.9%  
286 0.1% 98.8%  
287 0.2% 98.8%  
288 0.1% 98.5%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.3% 98%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.6% 97%  
294 0.7% 97%  
295 0.8% 96%  
296 1.2% 95%  
297 1.1% 94%  
298 2% 93%  
299 2% 91%  
300 3% 89%  
301 3% 86%  
302 3% 84%  
303 4% 80%  
304 4% 76%  
305 5% 72%  
306 5% 67%  
307 6% 63%  
308 4% 57%  
309 5% 53% Median
310 5% 48%  
311 6% 42%  
312 5% 37%  
313 5% 32%  
314 4% 26%  
315 4% 23%  
316 4% 19%  
317 2% 15%  
318 2% 13%  
319 3% 11%  
320 2% 8%  
321 1.3% 6%  
322 2% 5%  
323 0.9% 3%  
324 0.6% 2%  
325 0.6% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.2% Last Result
327 0.3% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.8%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.2% 99.6%  
247 0.5% 99.3%  
248 0.6% 98.8%  
249 0.9% 98%  
250 0.8% 97%  
251 0.7% 96%  
252 1.2% 96%  
253 1.1% 95%  
254 2% 93%  
255 4% 91%  
256 3% 87%  
257 6% 85%  
258 3% 78%  
259 4% 75%  
260 3% 71%  
261 3% 68%  
262 5% 64%  
263 5% 59%  
264 6% 54% Median
265 8% 48%  
266 5% 40%  
267 6% 34%  
268 3% 28%  
269 2% 25%  
270 4% 23%  
271 3% 19%  
272 4% 17%  
273 3% 13%  
274 3% 10%  
275 1.5% 7%  
276 1.3% 6%  
277 0.8% 4%  
278 0.7% 4%  
279 0.5% 3%  
280 0.5% 3%  
281 0.4% 2%  
282 0.3% 2%  
283 0.3% 1.2%  
284 0.1% 0.9%  
285 0.1% 0.7%  
286 0.2% 0.6%  
287 0.1% 0.4%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0% 0.3%  
290 0% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.2%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
160 0% 100%  
161 0% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.8%  
164 0.1% 99.7%  
165 0.3% 99.6%  
166 0.3% 99.3%  
167 0.4% 99.0%  
168 1.0% 98.6%  
169 0.9% 98%  
170 1.2% 97%  
171 2% 95%  
172 3% 93%  
173 2% 90%  
174 3% 89%  
175 3% 85%  
176 7% 82%  
177 2% 75%  
178 7% 73%  
179 5% 66%  
180 6% 61%  
181 4% 55%  
182 8% 51% Median
183 7% 43%  
184 4% 36%  
185 6% 32%  
186 4% 26%  
187 4% 22%  
188 3% 18%  
189 4% 15%  
190 2% 10%  
191 1.5% 8%  
192 2% 7%  
193 1.1% 5%  
194 1.1% 4%  
195 0.9% 3%  
196 0.7% 2%  
197 0.2% 1.3%  
198 0.3% 1.0%  
199 0.2% 0.8%  
200 0.2% 0.6%  
201 0.1% 0.4%  
202 0.1% 0.3%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0% 99.9%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.1% 99.7%  
126 0.1% 99.6%  
127 0.2% 99.5%  
128 0.1% 99.2%  
129 0.1% 99.1%  
130 0.2% 99.0%  
131 0.1% 98.8%  
132 0% 98.8%  
133 0.1% 98.7%  
134 0% 98.7%  
135 0% 98.7%  
136 0.1% 98.6%  
137 0% 98.5%  
138 0.1% 98.5%  
139 0% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0% 98%  
143 0% 98%  
144 0% 98%  
145 0% 98%  
146 0% 98%  
147 0% 98%  
148 0.1% 98%  
149 0.2% 98%  
150 0.3% 98%  
151 0.4% 98%  
152 0.4% 97%  
153 0.6% 97%  
154 0.8% 96%  
155 0.9% 96%  
156 1.1% 95%  
157 3% 94%  
158 3% 91%  
159 4% 88%  
160 6% 85%  
161 5% 79%  
162 6% 73%  
163 6% 67%  
164 5% 62%  
165 5% 57%  
166 5% 52% Median
167 5% 48%  
168 7% 43%  
169 6% 36%  
170 7% 31%  
171 6% 24%  
172 4% 19%  
173 4% 15%  
174 2% 10%  
175 2% 8%  
176 1.3% 6%  
177 1.1% 4%  
178 0.7% 3%  
179 0.9% 3%  
180 0.5% 2%  
181 0.5% 1.4%  
182 0.4% 0.9%  
183 0.2% 0.5%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations