Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 16–19 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.3–15.9% 13.1–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.5% 10.7–12.5% 10.4–12.7% 10.2–13.0% 9.8–13.4%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.5–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.0% 5.3–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 217 208–227 205–229 203–231 198–236
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–143 124–145 123–147 119–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 109 101–116 99–119 98–120 95–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 87 80–93 78–95 77–97 74–100
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 53–67 52–69 49–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 56 51–62 49–65 48–66 46–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 45 40–50 39–52 38–53 36–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.3% 99.5%  
200 0.4% 99.2% Last Result
201 0.5% 98.8%  
202 0.6% 98%  
203 0.7% 98%  
204 1.3% 97%  
205 1.3% 96%  
206 2% 94%  
207 2% 93%  
208 4% 90%  
209 3% 87%  
210 3% 84%  
211 5% 81%  
212 4% 77%  
213 4% 72%  
214 5% 69%  
215 6% 64%  
216 5% 58%  
217 7% 53% Median
218 5% 47%  
219 6% 42%  
220 5% 36%  
221 5% 31%  
222 4% 26%  
223 3% 22%  
224 3% 19%  
225 3% 16%  
226 2% 13%  
227 2% 10%  
228 2% 8%  
229 2% 6%  
230 1.4% 5%  
231 0.8% 3%  
232 0.7% 2%  
233 0.5% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.2%  
235 0.3% 0.9%  
236 0.2% 0.6%  
237 0.1% 0.4%  
238 0.1% 0.3%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.3% 99.4%  
121 0.6% 99.1%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 1.1% 98%  
124 2% 97%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 3% 91%  
128 3% 88%  
129 5% 85%  
130 4% 79%  
131 7% 76%  
132 6% 68%  
133 6% 63%  
134 5% 57%  
135 7% 52% Median
136 5% 45%  
137 7% 40%  
138 6% 33%  
139 5% 27%  
140 4% 22%  
141 4% 18%  
142 3% 14%  
143 3% 11%  
144 2% 8%  
145 2% 6%  
146 1.0% 4%  
147 0.9% 3%  
148 0.7% 2%  
149 0.5% 2%  
150 0.5% 1.3%  
151 0.2% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.5%  
153 0.1% 0.3%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 0.4% 99.5%  
96 0.6% 99.1%  
97 0.8% 98.5%  
98 1.2% 98%  
99 2% 97%  
100 2% 95%  
101 3% 93%  
102 3% 90%  
103 4% 86%  
104 5% 82%  
105 5% 77%  
106 6% 72%  
107 7% 66%  
108 7% 60%  
109 7% 53% Median
110 5% 46%  
111 8% 40%  
112 5% 32%  
113 5% 27%  
114 5% 22%  
115 4% 16%  
116 3% 13%  
117 2% 9%  
118 2% 7%  
119 1.4% 5%  
120 1.4% 4%  
121 0.8% 2%  
122 0.6% 2%  
123 0.4% 1.0%  
124 0.2% 0.7%  
125 0.2% 0.4%  
126 0.1% 0.3%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.9% 99.3%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 1.3% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 2% 94%  
80 5% 92%  
81 2% 87%  
82 8% 84%  
83 5% 77%  
84 8% 71%  
85 7% 64%  
86 7% 57%  
87 10% 50% Median
88 4% 40%  
89 10% 36%  
90 5% 26%  
91 5% 22%  
92 4% 16%  
93 4% 13%  
94 3% 9% Last Result
95 1.2% 6%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.7% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.4% 1.2%  
100 0.3% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.4%  
51 1.0% 98.9%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 4% 94%  
55 5% 90%  
56 8% 86%  
57 6% 78%  
58 8% 72%  
59 10% 64%  
60 7% 53% Median
61 7% 46%  
62 8% 39%  
63 7% 31%  
64 6% 24%  
65 4% 18%  
66 6% 14%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.3% 3% Last Result
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.2%  
72 0.3% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 0.9% 99.0%  
48 1.4% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 2% 94%  
51 2% 92%  
52 3% 90%  
53 6% 87%  
54 10% 81%  
55 11% 72%  
56 11% 60% Median
57 12% 49%  
58 12% 37%  
59 7% 26%  
60 4% 19%  
61 3% 15%  
62 3% 12%  
63 3% 9%  
64 2% 7%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.6%  
37 1.2% 99.0%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 96%  
40 5% 93%  
41 6% 88%  
42 9% 82%  
43 10% 73%  
44 9% 63%  
45 10% 55% Median
46 10% 45% Last Result
47 7% 35%  
48 8% 27%  
49 7% 19%  
50 4% 13%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 506 100% 496–515 494–518 491–520 487–524
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 453 100% 444–463 441–466 438–469 433–473
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 428 100% 417–437 415–440 412–442 407–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 405 100% 395–415 392–418 389–421 385–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 397 100% 387–407 384–410 382–412 376–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 371 98% 360–381 358–384 355–386 350–391
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 349 22% 338–359 335–362 333–364 328–369
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 319 0% 308–329 306–332 303–334 298–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 304 0% 294–314 291–317 288–320 283–324
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 300 0% 290–310 287–313 285–316 280–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 244 0% 234–253 231–256 229–259 224–263
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 169 0% 160–178 158–181 156–183 152–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 157–174 155–177 153–179 148–183

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 99.9%  
483 0% 99.9%  
484 0.1% 99.9%  
485 0.1% 99.8%  
486 0.1% 99.7%  
487 0.2% 99.6%  
488 0.3% 99.4%  
489 0.4% 99.1%  
490 0.5% 98.7%  
491 0.7% 98%  
492 1.0% 97%  
493 1.1% 96%  
494 1.4% 95%  
495 2% 94%  
496 3% 92%  
497 3% 90%  
498 3% 87%  
499 3% 84%  
500 4% 81%  
501 4% 76%  
502 4% 72%  
503 6% 68%  
504 5% 62%  
505 6% 56%  
506 5% 50% Median
507 6% 46%  
508 5% 40%  
509 5% 35%  
510 4% 30%  
511 4% 26%  
512 4% 22%  
513 4% 18%  
514 2% 14%  
515 2% 12%  
516 2% 10%  
517 2% 7%  
518 2% 5%  
519 1.0% 4%  
520 1.0% 3%  
521 0.5% 2%  
522 0.4% 1.3%  
523 0.3% 0.9%  
524 0.2% 0.6%  
525 0.1% 0.4%  
526 0.1% 0.3%  
527 0.1% 0.2%  
528 0% 0.1%  
529 0% 0.1%  
530 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.2% 99.7%  
434 0.2% 99.5%  
435 0.3% 99.3%  
436 0.4% 99.0%  
437 0.4% 98.6%  
438 0.7% 98%  
439 0.8% 97%  
440 1.0% 97%  
441 2% 96%  
442 2% 94%  
443 1.3% 92%  
444 4% 91%  
445 2% 87%  
446 3% 85%  
447 4% 81%  
448 3% 77%  
449 3% 74%  
450 6% 71%  
451 5% 65%  
452 5% 59%  
453 7% 55% Median
454 4% 47%  
455 5% 43%  
456 4% 38%  
457 4% 34%  
458 4% 30%  
459 4% 25%  
460 3% 22%  
461 3% 18%  
462 4% 16%  
463 3% 12%  
464 2% 9%  
465 2% 7%  
466 1.4% 6%  
467 1.1% 5%  
468 0.9% 3%  
469 0.7% 3%  
470 0.5% 2%  
471 0.4% 1.3%  
472 0.3% 0.9%  
473 0.2% 0.6%  
474 0.1% 0.4%  
475 0.1% 0.3%  
476 0.1% 0.2%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
402 0% 100%  
403 0.1% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.9%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.2% 99.6%  
408 0.2% 99.4%  
409 0.3% 99.2%  
410 0.4% 99.0%  
411 0.4% 98.6%  
412 0.9% 98%  
413 0.8% 97%  
414 1.1% 96%  
415 2% 95%  
416 1.5% 93%  
417 3% 92%  
418 2% 89%  
419 3% 87%  
420 4% 84%  
421 3% 80%  
422 4% 77%  
423 5% 73%  
424 4% 68%  
425 4% 64%  
426 4% 60%  
427 4% 56% Median
428 6% 52%  
429 5% 47%  
430 4% 42%  
431 5% 38%  
432 8% 34%  
433 3% 26%  
434 4% 23%  
435 4% 19%  
436 3% 15%  
437 3% 12%  
438 2% 9%  
439 2% 8%  
440 1.4% 6%  
441 0.7% 4%  
442 1.0% 3%  
443 0.6% 2%  
444 0.5% 2%  
445 0.4% 1.4%  
446 0.2% 1.0%  
447 0.2% 0.8%  
448 0.2% 0.6%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0.1% 0.3%  
451 0.1% 0.2%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.7%  
385 0.2% 99.5%  
386 0.3% 99.3%  
387 0.3% 99.0%  
388 0.4% 98.7%  
389 0.8% 98%  
390 0.8% 97%  
391 1.2% 97%  
392 1.4% 95%  
393 1.3% 94%  
394 2% 93%  
395 2% 91%  
396 4% 89%  
397 3% 85%  
398 3% 83%  
399 4% 79%  
400 3% 76%  
401 4% 73%  
402 7% 69%  
403 4% 62%  
404 6% 58%  
405 4% 52% Median
406 5% 48%  
407 6% 44%  
408 6% 38%  
409 3% 32%  
410 6% 30%  
411 3% 24%  
412 2% 21%  
413 5% 19%  
414 2% 14%  
415 2% 12%  
416 3% 10%  
417 2% 7%  
418 1.1% 6%  
419 1.0% 5%  
420 1.0% 4% Last Result
421 0.6% 3%  
422 0.6% 2%  
423 0.4% 1.3%  
424 0.3% 1.0%  
425 0.2% 0.7%  
426 0.2% 0.5%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.3% 99.6%  
377 0.2% 99.4%  
378 0.3% 99.2%  
379 0.3% 98.9%  
380 0.5% 98.6%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 0.9% 98%  
383 1.2% 97%  
384 1.3% 95%  
385 2% 94%  
386 2% 92%  
387 2% 90%  
388 3% 88%  
389 3% 86%  
390 4% 82%  
391 3% 79%  
392 5% 75%  
393 5% 71%  
394 6% 66%  
395 5% 60%  
396 5% 55%  
397 4% 50% Median
398 4% 46%  
399 4% 41%  
400 5% 37%  
401 5% 32%  
402 4% 28%  
403 4% 24%  
404 2% 20%  
405 3% 17%  
406 2% 15%  
407 3% 13%  
408 3% 9%  
409 1.5% 7%  
410 1.1% 5%  
411 1.1% 4%  
412 0.7% 3%  
413 0.6% 2%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.3% 1.2%  
416 0.3% 0.9%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.2% 99.7%  
351 0.2% 99.5%  
352 0.2% 99.3%  
353 0.5% 99.1%  
354 0.7% 98.5%  
355 0.5% 98% Majority
356 1.4% 97%  
357 0.9% 96%  
358 1.4% 95%  
359 1.4% 94%  
360 3% 92%  
361 2% 89%  
362 3% 88%  
363 3% 85%  
364 4% 82%  
365 3% 78%  
366 6% 76%  
367 4% 69%  
368 4% 66%  
369 5% 62%  
370 4% 57%  
371 5% 53% Median
372 3% 49%  
373 7% 46%  
374 5% 39%  
375 4% 34%  
376 7% 30%  
377 3% 24%  
378 4% 21%  
379 2% 17%  
380 4% 15%  
381 2% 11%  
382 2% 10%  
383 2% 8%  
384 1.1% 6%  
385 1.2% 5%  
386 1.3% 3%  
387 0.6% 2%  
388 0.3% 2%  
389 0.3% 1.2%  
390 0.3% 0.9%  
391 0.2% 0.6%  
392 0.1% 0.5%  
393 0.2% 0.4%  
394 0.1% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0.1% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  
399 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.6%  
329 0.3% 99.4%  
330 0.3% 99.1%  
331 0.5% 98.8%  
332 0.5% 98%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 1.0% 97%  
335 1.3% 96%  
336 2% 95%  
337 2% 93%  
338 2% 91%  
339 2% 90%  
340 3% 87% Last Result
341 4% 84%  
342 3% 81%  
343 3% 78%  
344 5% 75%  
345 4% 70%  
346 5% 66%  
347 5% 61%  
348 6% 57%  
349 5% 51% Median
350 5% 46%  
351 6% 40%  
352 6% 35%  
353 3% 29%  
354 4% 26%  
355 4% 22% Majority
356 3% 18%  
357 3% 15%  
358 3% 13%  
359 2% 10%  
360 2% 8%  
361 1.2% 6%  
362 1.3% 5%  
363 0.7% 4%  
364 0.8% 3%  
365 0.6% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.5% 1.3%  
368 0.2% 0.9%  
369 0.3% 0.7%  
370 0.1% 0.4%  
371 0.1% 0.3%  
372 0.1% 0.2%  
373 0.1% 0.1%  
374 0% 0.1%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.2% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.3% 99.3%  
301 0.4% 99.0%  
302 0.7% 98.6%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 0.7% 97%  
305 1.2% 96%  
306 2% 95%  
307 2% 93%  
308 2% 92%  
309 2% 90%  
310 3% 88%  
311 2% 84%  
312 4% 82%  
313 5% 78%  
314 4% 73%  
315 4% 69%  
316 5% 66%  
317 5% 60%  
318 4% 55% Median
319 4% 51%  
320 7% 47%  
321 6% 40%  
322 3% 34%  
323 4% 31%  
324 4% 27%  
325 3% 23%  
326 3% 20% Last Result
327 3% 17%  
328 3% 14%  
329 2% 10%  
330 2% 9%  
331 2% 7%  
332 1.3% 5%  
333 1.1% 4%  
334 0.6% 3%  
335 0.6% 2%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.3%  
338 0.3% 0.9%  
339 0.1% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.5%  
285 0.3% 99.3%  
286 0.4% 99.0%  
287 0.6% 98.7%  
288 0.6% 98%  
289 1.0% 97% Last Result
290 1.0% 96%  
291 1.1% 95%  
292 2% 94%  
293 3% 93%  
294 2% 90%  
295 2% 88%  
296 5% 86%  
297 2% 81%  
298 3% 79%  
299 6% 76%  
300 3% 70%  
301 6% 68%  
302 6% 62%  
303 5% 56%  
304 4% 52% Median
305 6% 48%  
306 4% 42%  
307 7% 38%  
308 4% 31%  
309 3% 27%  
310 4% 24%  
311 3% 21%  
312 3% 17%  
313 4% 15%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 9%  
316 1.3% 7%  
317 1.4% 6%  
318 1.2% 5%  
319 0.8% 3%  
320 0.8% 3%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.3% 1.3%  
323 0.3% 1.0%  
324 0.2% 0.7%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.3%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.2% 99.6%  
281 0.2% 99.4%  
282 0.3% 99.2%  
283 0.5% 98.9%  
284 0.4% 98%  
285 0.9% 98%  
286 1.2% 97%  
287 1.1% 96%  
288 2% 95%  
289 2% 93%  
290 2% 92%  
291 3% 90%  
292 2% 86%  
293 3% 84%  
294 4% 81%  
295 4% 77%  
296 5% 73%  
297 5% 68%  
298 4% 64%  
299 6% 60%  
300 5% 54% Last Result, Median
301 5% 49%  
302 4% 44%  
303 6% 39%  
304 4% 34%  
305 5% 30%  
306 3% 25%  
307 5% 21%  
308 3% 17%  
309 2% 14%  
310 2% 12%  
311 2% 10%  
312 2% 8%  
313 1.4% 6%  
314 0.9% 4%  
315 0.8% 3%  
316 0.8% 3%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.4% 1.5%  
319 0.3% 1.1%  
320 0.3% 0.8%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9% Last Result
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.1% 99.6%  
225 0.3% 99.5%  
226 0.3% 99.2%  
227 0.5% 98.9%  
228 0.7% 98%  
229 0.9% 98%  
230 0.8% 97%  
231 1.3% 96%  
232 2% 95%  
233 2% 93%  
234 3% 91%  
235 3% 89%  
236 4% 86%  
237 3% 82%  
238 3% 78%  
239 4% 76%  
240 5% 71%  
241 5% 66%  
242 6% 62%  
243 5% 56%  
244 5% 51% Median
245 6% 46%  
246 5% 40%  
247 5% 35%  
248 3% 30%  
249 5% 27%  
250 4% 22%  
251 3% 18%  
252 3% 15%  
253 3% 12%  
254 2% 10%  
255 2% 8%  
256 2% 7%  
257 1.3% 5%  
258 1.0% 4%  
259 0.7% 3%  
260 0.4% 2%  
261 0.5% 1.5%  
262 0.3% 1.0%  
263 0.2% 0.7%  
264 0.2% 0.5%  
265 0.1% 0.3%  
266 0.1% 0.2%  
267 0.1% 0.1%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.8%  
152 0.1% 99.5%  
153 0.6% 99.4%  
154 0.3% 98.8%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 0.9% 98%  
157 1.0% 97%  
158 2% 96%  
159 1.5% 94%  
160 3% 92%  
161 2% 89%  
162 4% 87%  
163 3% 83%  
164 5% 80%  
165 5% 75%  
166 5% 70%  
167 6% 65%  
168 6% 59%  
169 5% 53% Median
170 8% 49%  
171 3% 41%  
172 8% 37%  
173 3% 30%  
174 5% 26%  
175 4% 22%  
176 3% 18%  
177 4% 15%  
178 2% 11%  
179 2% 9%  
180 1.1% 6%  
181 2% 5%  
182 0.8% 3%  
183 0.9% 3%  
184 0.5% 2%  
185 0.4% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 0.8%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.3% 99.5%  
150 0.4% 99.2%  
151 0.4% 98.7%  
152 0.6% 98%  
153 1.2% 98%  
154 1.1% 96%  
155 2% 95%  
156 2% 93%  
157 3% 91%  
158 4% 88%  
159 4% 85%  
160 4% 81%  
161 5% 77%  
162 5% 72%  
163 5% 68%  
164 6% 62%  
165 5% 56% Median
166 6% 50%  
167 6% 44%  
168 5% 38%  
169 7% 33%  
170 4% 26%  
171 3% 22%  
172 4% 18%  
173 2% 14%  
174 2% 12%  
175 3% 9%  
176 1.4% 7%  
177 1.5% 5%  
178 1.1% 4%  
179 0.6% 3%  
180 0.7% 2%  
181 0.4% 1.4%  
182 0.3% 1.0%  
183 0.3% 0.7%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.2%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations