Opinion Poll by Forsa, 19–23 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 28.0–30.6% 27.6–31.0% 27.3–31.3% 26.7–32.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.7–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 223 213–233 210–236 208–239 203–246
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 152 144–161 141–164 139–166 135–172
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 107–122 104–125 103–127 99–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 63–76 61–77 59–79 57–82
Die Linke 69 54 48–59 47–61 45–63 43–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 46–57 45–59 44–61 41–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–51 39–53 38–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.7%  
203 0.2% 99.6%  
204 0.3% 99.4%  
205 0.4% 99.1%  
206 0.4% 98.7%  
207 0.7% 98%  
208 1.0% 98%  
209 0.9% 97%  
210 1.5% 96%  
211 2% 94%  
212 2% 92%  
213 2% 90%  
214 4% 88%  
215 3% 85%  
216 3% 82%  
217 4% 78%  
218 4% 74%  
219 5% 70%  
220 5% 65%  
221 6% 61%  
222 4% 55%  
223 4% 51% Median
224 6% 46%  
225 3% 40%  
226 5% 37%  
227 4% 31%  
228 5% 28%  
229 3% 23%  
230 3% 20%  
231 3% 17%  
232 3% 14%  
233 2% 11%  
234 2% 9%  
235 2% 7%  
236 0.9% 6%  
237 1.1% 5%  
238 0.7% 4%  
239 0.9% 3%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.4% 2%  
242 0.3% 1.4%  
243 0.2% 1.1%  
244 0.2% 0.9%  
245 0.1% 0.7%  
246 0.1% 0.6%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0.1% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.2% 99.9%  
134 0.1% 99.7%  
135 0.3% 99.6%  
136 0.5% 99.4%  
137 0.2% 98.9%  
138 0.9% 98.7%  
139 1.2% 98%  
140 0.5% 97%  
141 2% 96%  
142 3% 94%  
143 0.9% 91%  
144 4% 91%  
145 5% 87%  
146 2% 82%  
147 4% 80%  
148 7% 76%  
149 3% 69%  
150 5% 66%  
151 10% 61%  
152 3% 52% Median
153 6% 48%  
154 8% 43%  
155 2% 34%  
156 5% 32%  
157 6% 27%  
158 2% 21%  
159 3% 19%  
160 5% 16%  
161 2% 11%  
162 2% 9%  
163 2% 8%  
164 0.8% 5%  
165 1.0% 5%  
166 1.0% 3%  
167 0.6% 2%  
168 0.5% 2%  
169 0.5% 1.4%  
170 0.1% 0.9%  
171 0.1% 0.7%  
172 0.3% 0.6%  
173 0.1% 0.3%  
174 0.1% 0.3%  
175 0.1% 0.2%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0.1%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.6%  
100 0.4% 99.4%  
101 0.6% 99.0%  
102 0.9% 98%  
103 1.0% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 2% 95%  
106 3% 93%  
107 3% 90%  
108 4% 87%  
109 5% 84%  
110 4% 78%  
111 6% 74%  
112 6% 68%  
113 6% 62%  
114 6% 56% Median
115 8% 49%  
116 5% 42%  
117 6% 37%  
118 5% 30%  
119 5% 25%  
120 4% 20%  
121 4% 17%  
122 3% 13%  
123 2% 10%  
124 2% 7%  
125 2% 6%  
126 1.2% 4%  
127 0.8% 3%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.1%  
131 0.3% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.5%  
133 0.1% 0.3%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.6%  
58 0.7% 99.2%  
59 1.0% 98.5%  
60 1.4% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 3% 93%  
63 4% 90%  
64 6% 86%  
65 6% 80%  
66 6% 74%  
67 8% 68%  
68 8% 60%  
69 7% 52% Median
70 9% 45%  
71 6% 36%  
72 6% 30%  
73 5% 24%  
74 6% 19%  
75 3% 13%  
76 3% 10%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.3% 5%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.2%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.7%  
44 0.7% 99.3%  
45 1.2% 98.6%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 96%  
48 4% 93%  
49 6% 88%  
50 6% 82%  
51 8% 76%  
52 8% 68%  
53 8% 60%  
54 10% 52% Median
55 9% 42%  
56 6% 33%  
57 7% 27%  
58 6% 20%  
59 4% 14%  
60 3% 10%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.5% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 0.5% 99.4%  
43 1.0% 98.9%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 5% 94% Last Result
47 7% 88%  
48 7% 81%  
49 7% 75%  
50 8% 68%  
51 6% 60%  
52 8% 54% Median
53 9% 46%  
54 9% 37%  
55 8% 28%  
56 7% 20%  
57 5% 13%  
58 2% 8%  
59 1.3% 6%  
60 1.5% 4%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.1%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 0.7% 98%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 4% 91%  
42 8% 87%  
43 8% 79%  
44 10% 72%  
45 10% 61%  
46 8% 51% Median
47 9% 43%  
48 8% 34%  
49 7% 27%  
50 6% 19%  
51 5% 14%  
52 4% 9%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.3% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 540 100% 532–549 528–555 526–560 523–585
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 472 100% 461–482 458–485 455–488 448–492
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 434 100% 423–445 420–448 416–450 408–455
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 427 100% 416–438 413–442 410–447 405–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 389 100% 378–400 375–404 372–409 367–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 389 99.9% 378–399 374–402 369–405 359–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 10% 333–355 330–359 327–362 321–373
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0.1% 310–331 307–335 304–340 299–350
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 320 0% 309–331 305–334 300–336 286–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 312 0% 301–323 296–326 292–329 279–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 267 0% 256–277 253–281 251–284 246–293
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 159–177 157–180 155–183 150–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 160 0% 151–169 147–171 140–174 118–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 99.9%  
518 0.1% 99.9%  
519 0.1% 99.8%  
520 0.1% 99.8%  
521 0.1% 99.7%  
522 0.1% 99.6%  
523 0.1% 99.5%  
524 0.3% 99.4%  
525 0.6% 99.1%  
526 1.1% 98.5%  
527 2% 97%  
528 2% 96%  
529 1.3% 94%  
530 2% 93%  
531 1.1% 91%  
532 1.2% 90%  
533 2% 89%  
534 3% 87%  
535 5% 84%  
536 8% 80%  
537 6% 71%  
538 9% 65%  
539 6% 56%  
540 3% 51%  
541 3% 48% Median
542 2% 45%  
543 3% 43%  
544 4% 40%  
545 6% 36%  
546 6% 30%  
547 6% 24%  
548 6% 17%  
549 3% 12%  
550 1.2% 9%  
551 0.9% 8%  
552 0.4% 7%  
553 0.5% 6%  
554 0.6% 6%  
555 1.0% 5%  
556 0.7% 4%  
557 0.6% 4%  
558 0.3% 3%  
559 0.2% 3%  
560 0.1% 3%  
561 0% 2%  
562 0% 2%  
563 0% 2%  
564 0% 2%  
565 0% 2%  
566 0% 2%  
567 0% 2%  
568 0% 2%  
569 0% 2%  
570 0% 2%  
571 0.1% 2%  
572 0.1% 2%  
573 0.2% 2%  
574 0.1% 2%  
575 0.3% 2%  
576 0.1% 1.4%  
577 0.2% 1.3%  
578 0.1% 1.1%  
579 0.1% 1.1%  
580 0% 1.0%  
581 0.1% 0.9%  
582 0.1% 0.9%  
583 0.2% 0.8%  
584 0.1% 0.6%  
585 0.3% 0.5%  
586 0% 0.3%  
587 0.1% 0.2%  
588 0% 0.1%  
589 0% 0.1%  
590 0% 0.1%  
591 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0% 99.8%  
445 0% 99.8%  
446 0.1% 99.7%  
447 0.1% 99.7%  
448 0.1% 99.6%  
449 0.2% 99.4%  
450 0.3% 99.3%  
451 0.2% 99.0%  
452 0.3% 98.8%  
453 0.2% 98%  
454 0.6% 98%  
455 0.5% 98%  
456 0.5% 97%  
457 1.3% 97%  
458 0.9% 95%  
459 1.3% 94%  
460 2% 93%  
461 2% 91%  
462 2% 90%  
463 3% 88%  
464 2% 85%  
465 4% 83%  
466 3% 78%  
467 3% 75%  
468 3% 72%  
469 5% 68%  
470 4% 63%  
471 6% 59%  
472 5% 53%  
473 5% 48% Median
474 4% 43%  
475 6% 39%  
476 4% 33%  
477 4% 29%  
478 4% 25%  
479 4% 21%  
480 2% 16%  
481 3% 14%  
482 2% 11%  
483 1.3% 9%  
484 2% 7%  
485 2% 6%  
486 0.8% 4%  
487 0.8% 3%  
488 0.8% 3%  
489 0.5% 2%  
490 0.5% 1.3%  
491 0.2% 0.8%  
492 0.2% 0.6%  
493 0.1% 0.4%  
494 0.1% 0.3%  
495 0.1% 0.2%  
496 0.1% 0.1%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.1% 99.6%  
408 0.1% 99.5%  
409 0.1% 99.4%  
410 0.1% 99.3%  
411 0.2% 99.2%  
412 0.2% 99.0%  
413 0.2% 98.8%  
414 0.4% 98.6%  
415 0.4% 98%  
416 0.3% 98%  
417 0.7% 97%  
418 0.9% 97%  
419 0.5% 96%  
420 1.1% 95%  
421 1.3% 94%  
422 1.2% 93%  
423 3% 92%  
424 2% 89%  
425 2% 87%  
426 3% 85%  
427 3% 82%  
428 4% 79%  
429 3% 75%  
430 5% 72%  
431 5% 67%  
432 4% 62%  
433 4% 58%  
434 4% 54%  
435 4% 50% Median
436 6% 46%  
437 4% 40%  
438 4% 36%  
439 6% 32%  
440 4% 26%  
441 4% 23%  
442 3% 18%  
443 3% 15%  
444 2% 13%  
445 2% 11%  
446 2% 8%  
447 1.3% 6%  
448 1.4% 5%  
449 0.8% 4%  
450 0.8% 3%  
451 0.5% 2%  
452 0.5% 2%  
453 0.3% 1.2%  
454 0.3% 0.9%  
455 0.2% 0.6%  
456 0.2% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0.1% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.2% 99.6%  
406 0.3% 99.5%  
407 0.3% 99.2%  
408 0.3% 98.9%  
409 0.6% 98.6%  
410 0.6% 98%  
411 0.9% 97%  
412 1.0% 96%  
413 1.0% 95%  
414 2% 94%  
415 2% 93%  
416 3% 91%  
417 2% 88%  
418 3% 86%  
419 3% 83%  
420 3% 80%  
421 5% 76%  
422 4% 72%  
423 4% 68%  
424 5% 64%  
425 5% 59%  
426 4% 54%  
427 6% 51% Median
428 4% 45%  
429 5% 41%  
430 3% 36%  
431 5% 33%  
432 4% 28%  
433 3% 23%  
434 3% 20%  
435 3% 17%  
436 3% 15%  
437 1.2% 11%  
438 2% 10%  
439 1.1% 8%  
440 1.4% 7%  
441 0.7% 6%  
442 0.6% 5%  
443 0.8% 4%  
444 0.5% 4%  
445 0.3% 3%  
446 0.2% 3%  
447 0.3% 3%  
448 0.2% 2%  
449 0.2% 2%  
450 0.2% 2%  
451 0.1% 2%  
452 0.2% 2%  
453 0.1% 2%  
454 0.1% 1.5%  
455 0.1% 1.4%  
456 0.1% 1.3%  
457 0.1% 1.2%  
458 0.2% 1.1%  
459 0.1% 0.9%  
460 0.1% 0.7%  
461 0.1% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.4%  
465 0% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0.3% 98.9%  
371 0.6% 98.6%  
372 0.7% 98%  
373 0.7% 97%  
374 1.1% 97%  
375 2% 96%  
376 1.3% 94%  
377 2% 93%  
378 2% 90%  
379 2% 89%  
380 3% 86%  
381 3% 83%  
382 4% 81%  
383 4% 77%  
384 3% 72%  
385 6% 69%  
386 3% 64%  
387 5% 61%  
388 5% 56%  
389 3% 50% Median
390 5% 47%  
391 4% 42%  
392 3% 37%  
393 4% 34%  
394 6% 30%  
395 3% 24%  
396 3% 22%  
397 3% 19%  
398 4% 16%  
399 1.1% 12% Last Result
400 2% 11%  
401 2% 9%  
402 0.9% 7%  
403 0.8% 6%  
404 0.9% 6%  
405 0.7% 5%  
406 0.6% 4%  
407 0.3% 3%  
408 0.3% 3%  
409 0.3% 3%  
410 0.2% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.1% 1.3%  
416 0.2% 1.2%  
417 0.1% 1.1%  
418 0.1% 0.9%  
419 0% 0.8%  
420 0.1% 0.8%  
421 0% 0.7%  
422 0.1% 0.6%  
423 0% 0.5%  
424 0.1% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.7%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.1% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.5%  
361 0.1% 99.4%  
362 0.2% 99.3%  
363 0.1% 99.1%  
364 0.2% 99.0%  
365 0.2% 98.9%  
366 0.3% 98.7%  
367 0.3% 98%  
368 0.2% 98%  
369 0.4% 98%  
370 0.4% 97%  
371 0.6% 97%  
372 0.6% 97%  
373 0.6% 96%  
374 0.8% 95%  
375 1.1% 95%  
376 1.5% 93%  
377 2% 92%  
378 1.3% 90%  
379 3% 89%  
380 3% 86%  
381 3% 83%  
382 3% 80%  
383 5% 77%  
384 5% 72%  
385 3% 67%  
386 4% 63%  
387 4% 59%  
388 3% 55%  
389 6% 52%  
390 3% 46% Median
391 3% 43%  
392 5% 39%  
393 3% 34%  
394 4% 31%  
395 4% 26%  
396 4% 22%  
397 3% 19%  
398 3% 15%  
399 3% 13%  
400 2% 9%  
401 2% 8%  
402 2% 6%  
403 0.7% 5%  
404 0.9% 4%  
405 0.9% 3%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0.5% 2%  
408 0.3% 1.2%  
409 0.2% 0.9%  
410 0.2% 0.7%  
411 0.1% 0.5%  
412 0.1% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.2% 99.7%  
322 0.2% 99.5%  
323 0.3% 99.3%  
324 0.4% 99.1%  
325 0.4% 98.7%  
326 0.6% 98%  
327 0.8% 98%  
328 0.6% 97%  
329 1.2% 96%  
330 2% 95%  
331 1.3% 94%  
332 2% 92%  
333 2% 90%  
334 3% 88%  
335 4% 85%  
336 4% 81%  
337 3% 77%  
338 5% 74%  
339 4% 69%  
340 4% 65% Last Result
341 5% 61%  
342 4% 56%  
343 4% 53%  
344 4% 49% Median
345 4% 45%  
346 4% 41%  
347 4% 36%  
348 4% 32%  
349 3% 28%  
350 4% 25%  
351 2% 21%  
352 4% 18%  
353 3% 14%  
354 1.4% 12%  
355 2% 10% Majority
356 1.0% 8%  
357 0.9% 7%  
358 1.0% 6%  
359 0.9% 5%  
360 0.7% 4%  
361 0.5% 4%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.2% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.2% 1.4%  
368 0.1% 1.2%  
369 0.2% 1.1%  
370 0.1% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.1% 0.7%  
373 0.1% 0.6%  
374 0% 0.5%  
375 0% 0.4%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.3%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.3%  
301 0.3% 99.1%  
302 0.5% 98.8%  
303 0.4% 98%  
304 0.9% 98%  
305 0.9% 97%  
306 0.7% 96%  
307 2% 95%  
308 2% 94%  
309 2% 92%  
310 3% 91%  
311 3% 87%  
312 3% 85%  
313 4% 81%  
314 4% 78%  
315 4% 74%  
316 3% 69%  
317 5% 66%  
318 3% 61%  
319 3% 57%  
320 6% 54% Median
321 3% 48%  
322 4% 45%  
323 4% 41%  
324 3% 37%  
325 5% 33%  
326 5% 28%  
327 3% 23%  
328 3% 20%  
329 3% 17%  
330 3% 14%  
331 1.3% 11%  
332 2% 10%  
333 1.5% 8%  
334 1.1% 7%  
335 0.8% 5%  
336 0.6% 5%  
337 0.6% 4%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.4% 3%  
340 0.4% 3%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.3% 2%  
343 0.3% 2%  
344 0.2% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 1.1%  
346 0.1% 1.0%  
347 0.2% 0.9%  
348 0.1% 0.7%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.3%  
354 0.1% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0.2% 99.6%  
287 0.1% 99.4%  
288 0.1% 99.4%  
289 0.1% 99.3%  
290 0.1% 99.2%  
291 0.2% 99.1%  
292 0.1% 98.9%  
293 0.2% 98.7%  
294 0.1% 98.5%  
295 0.1% 98%  
296 0.1% 98%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 0.2% 98%  
299 0.3% 98%  
300 0.3% 98%  
301 0.3% 97%  
302 0.4% 97%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 0.6% 96%  
305 0.7% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 1.1% 93%  
308 1.4% 92%  
309 2% 90%  
310 2% 88%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 83%  
313 4% 81%  
314 3% 77%  
315 4% 74%  
316 4% 70%  
317 4% 66%  
318 5% 62%  
319 4% 57%  
320 3% 53%  
321 7% 49% Median
322 4% 43%  
323 3% 38%  
324 5% 35%  
325 4% 30%  
326 3% 26% Last Result
327 5% 23%  
328 4% 18%  
329 2% 15%  
330 3% 13%  
331 3% 10%  
332 1.2% 8%  
333 1.2% 7%  
334 1.5% 5%  
335 0.9% 4%  
336 0.8% 3%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.7% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.1%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.7%  
276 0% 99.7%  
277 0% 99.6%  
278 0% 99.6%  
279 0.2% 99.6%  
280 0.2% 99.4%  
281 0.1% 99.3%  
282 0% 99.2%  
283 0.2% 99.2%  
284 0.2% 99.0%  
285 0.2% 98.7%  
286 0.1% 98.5%  
287 0.1% 98%  
288 0.1% 98%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.5% 97%  
294 0.6% 97%  
295 0.5% 96%  
296 1.0% 96%  
297 0.9% 95%  
298 1.0% 94%  
299 1.0% 93%  
300 1.1% 92% Last Result
301 2% 91%  
302 2% 89%  
303 2% 87%  
304 2% 85%  
305 4% 82%  
306 5% 78%  
307 4% 74%  
308 4% 70%  
309 4% 66%  
310 4% 61%  
311 4% 57%  
312 5% 53% Median
313 4% 48%  
314 4% 44%  
315 5% 41%  
316 5% 36%  
317 5% 31%  
318 4% 26%  
319 4% 22%  
320 3% 18%  
321 2% 15%  
322 2% 13%  
323 2% 10%  
324 1.3% 9%  
325 2% 7%  
326 1.1% 6%  
327 1.0% 4%  
328 1.0% 4%  
329 0.8% 3%  
330 0.4% 2%  
331 0.3% 1.3%  
332 0.2% 0.9%  
333 0.1% 0.7%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.1% 99.7%  
246 0.1% 99.6%  
247 0.3% 99.5%  
248 0.6% 99.1%  
249 0.6% 98.5%  
250 0.4% 98%  
251 0.7% 98%  
252 1.1% 97%  
253 0.9% 96%  
254 2% 95%  
255 2% 93%  
256 2% 92%  
257 3% 90%  
258 4% 87%  
259 3% 83%  
260 2% 80%  
261 3% 78%  
262 6% 75%  
263 6% 69%  
264 4% 62%  
265 3% 58%  
266 5% 55% Median
267 5% 50%  
268 5% 45%  
269 3% 40%  
270 4% 37%  
271 5% 33%  
272 6% 28%  
273 3% 22%  
274 2% 19%  
275 2% 17%  
276 3% 15%  
277 3% 12%  
278 1.4% 10%  
279 1.4% 8%  
280 1.4% 7%  
281 1.4% 6%  
282 0.6% 4%  
283 0.6% 4%  
284 0.5% 3%  
285 0.5% 2%  
286 0.4% 2%  
287 0.3% 2%  
288 0.1% 1.3%  
289 0.3% 1.1%  
290 0.1% 0.9%  
291 0.1% 0.7%  
292 0.1% 0.6%  
293 0.1% 0.5%  
294 0.1% 0.4%  
295 0.1% 0.3%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0.1% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.2% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.3% 99.4%  
152 0.3% 99.1%  
153 0.5% 98.8%  
154 0.7% 98%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 1.3% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 2% 94%  
159 3% 92%  
160 4% 89%  
161 3% 85%  
162 4% 82%  
163 6% 77%  
164 4% 71%  
165 5% 67%  
166 4% 62%  
167 4% 58%  
168 5% 54% Median
169 5% 49%  
170 5% 44%  
171 4% 39%  
172 5% 34%  
173 6% 29%  
174 4% 23%  
175 3% 19%  
176 4% 16%  
177 2% 12%  
178 2% 9%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.2% 6%  
181 1.0% 5%  
182 0.8% 4%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.3%  
187 0.2% 0.9%  
188 0.2% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 99.9%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.8%  
115 0.1% 99.7%  
116 0.1% 99.6%  
117 0.1% 99.6%  
118 0.1% 99.5%  
119 0.2% 99.4%  
120 0.1% 99.2%  
121 0.2% 99.0%  
122 0.1% 98.8%  
123 0.1% 98.7%  
124 0.1% 98.6%  
125 0.2% 98.5%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0.1% 98%  
129 0.1% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0.1% 98%  
132 0% 98%  
133 0.1% 98%  
134 0% 98%  
135 0% 98%  
136 0% 98%  
137 0% 98%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0% 98%  
140 0.1% 98%  
141 0.1% 97%  
142 0.1% 97%  
143 0.1% 97%  
144 0.3% 97%  
145 0.5% 97%  
146 0.7% 96%  
147 1.0% 96%  
148 0.8% 95%  
149 1.0% 94%  
150 1.1% 93%  
151 4% 92%  
152 3% 88%  
153 3% 85%  
154 2% 81%  
155 3% 79%  
156 5% 75%  
157 5% 71%  
158 9% 65%  
159 5% 57%  
160 5% 52% Median
161 3% 47%  
162 6% 44%  
163 7% 38%  
164 7% 31%  
165 4% 25%  
166 2% 21%  
167 3% 18%  
168 2% 15%  
169 4% 13%  
170 2% 9%  
171 1.3% 6%  
172 0.9% 5%  
173 0.7% 4%  
174 1.1% 3%  
175 0.7% 2%  
176 0.7% 2%  
177 0.3% 0.9%  
178 0.2% 0.7%  
179 0.1% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations