Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 23–26 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.0% 26.5–31.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.5% 13.5–15.5% 13.3–15.8% 13.0–16.1% 12.6–16.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.7–13.5% 10.2–13.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 210–229 208–232 206–234 201–240
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 132 124–141 122–143 120–146 117–149
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 110 103–118 101–120 99–122 96–126
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 84–98 83–100 81–102 77–106
Die Linke 69 57 52–63 50–64 49–66 46–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 48 44–55 44–56 41–58 40–60
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 44–54 43–56 42–58 39–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
195 0% 100%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.6%  
202 0.4% 99.3%  
203 0.4% 98.9%  
204 0.4% 98.5%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.9% 98%  
207 1.4% 97%  
208 2% 95%  
209 2% 93%  
210 2% 91%  
211 2% 89%  
212 3% 87%  
213 4% 84%  
214 4% 80%  
215 6% 76%  
216 4% 70%  
217 3% 65%  
218 4% 62%  
219 5% 58%  
220 7% 53% Median
221 7% 46%  
222 6% 39%  
223 3% 33%  
224 3% 29%  
225 3% 26%  
226 4% 22%  
227 4% 18%  
228 4% 14%  
229 1.3% 10%  
230 2% 9%  
231 1.5% 8%  
232 1.2% 6%  
233 2% 5%  
234 1.1% 3%  
235 0.6% 2%  
236 0.4% 2%  
237 0.3% 1.3%  
238 0.2% 1.0%  
239 0.2% 0.8%  
240 0.2% 0.5%  
241 0.1% 0.4%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.2% 99.8%  
117 0.2% 99.6%  
118 0.5% 99.4%  
119 0.3% 98.9%  
120 1.2% 98.6%  
121 1.1% 97%  
122 1.5% 96%  
123 2% 95%  
124 3% 93%  
125 2% 90%  
126 5% 88%  
127 4% 84%  
128 6% 79%  
129 7% 74%  
130 5% 67%  
131 4% 62%  
132 9% 58% Median
133 5% 49%  
134 7% 44%  
135 8% 38%  
136 3% 29%  
137 5% 27%  
138 4% 22%  
139 3% 18%  
140 4% 15%  
141 4% 11%  
142 0.9% 7%  
143 2% 6%  
144 0.8% 4%  
145 0.8% 3%  
146 0.9% 3%  
147 0.6% 2%  
148 0.2% 1.0%  
149 0.3% 0.8%  
150 0.1% 0.5%  
151 0.1% 0.3%  
152 0.1% 0.2%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.4% 99.5%  
97 0.6% 99.2%  
98 0.6% 98.6%  
99 1.4% 98%  
100 1.2% 97%  
101 3% 95%  
102 3% 93%  
103 3% 90%  
104 5% 87%  
105 4% 83%  
106 5% 79%  
107 7% 73%  
108 7% 66%  
109 8% 60%  
110 6% 52% Median
111 6% 46%  
112 5% 40%  
113 8% 35%  
114 4% 27%  
115 4% 22%  
116 4% 18%  
117 3% 13%  
118 3% 11%  
119 2% 7%  
120 1.3% 5%  
121 1.4% 4%  
122 0.7% 3%  
123 0.8% 2%  
124 0.4% 1.2%  
125 0.3% 0.8%  
126 0.2% 0.5%  
127 0.1% 0.3%  
128 0.1% 0.2%  
129 0.1% 0.1%  
130 0% 0.1%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.3% 99.4%  
79 0.8% 99.1%  
80 0.7% 98%  
81 1.2% 98%  
82 1.4% 97%  
83 2% 95%  
84 3% 93%  
85 3% 90%  
86 6% 87%  
87 6% 81%  
88 7% 75%  
89 6% 68%  
90 9% 61%  
91 7% 52% Median
92 8% 45%  
93 5% 37%  
94 7% 32% Last Result
95 4% 25%  
96 4% 21%  
97 5% 16%  
98 3% 11%  
99 2% 8%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.4% 4%  
102 0.9% 3%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.5% 1.2%  
105 0.2% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.4%  
48 1.2% 98.9%  
49 1.4% 98%  
50 2% 96%  
51 4% 94%  
52 4% 90%  
53 6% 86%  
54 8% 80%  
55 7% 72%  
56 10% 65%  
57 9% 54% Median
58 9% 45%  
59 8% 36%  
60 8% 28%  
61 5% 20%  
62 5% 15%  
63 3% 10%  
64 2% 7%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0% 99.8%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0% 99.8%  
8 0% 99.8%  
9 0% 99.8%  
10 0% 99.8%  
11 0% 99.8%  
12 0% 99.8%  
13 0% 99.8%  
14 0% 99.8%  
15 0% 99.8%  
16 0% 99.8%  
17 0% 99.8%  
18 0% 99.8%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0% 99.8%  
21 0% 99.8%  
22 0% 99.8%  
23 0% 99.8%  
24 0% 99.8%  
25 0% 99.8%  
26 0% 99.8%  
27 0% 99.8%  
28 0% 99.8%  
29 0% 99.8%  
30 0% 99.8%  
31 0% 99.8%  
32 0% 99.8%  
33 0% 99.8%  
34 0% 99.8%  
35 0% 99.8%  
36 0% 99.8%  
37 0% 99.8%  
38 0% 99.8%  
39 0% 99.7%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 3% 99.0%  
42 0.3% 96%  
43 0.2% 96%  
44 10% 96%  
45 8% 86%  
46 0.2% 78%  
47 4% 78%  
48 26% 74% Median
49 5% 48%  
50 0.1% 43%  
51 11% 43%  
52 17% 32%  
53 0.9% 15%  
54 0.5% 14%  
55 7% 14%  
56 3% 6%  
57 0.1% 3%  
58 0.5% 3%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.3%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.6% 99.4%  
41 1.1% 98.8%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 5% 93%  
45 6% 89%  
46 7% 83% Last Result
47 8% 76%  
48 8% 67%  
49 13% 59% Median
50 7% 46%  
51 11% 39%  
52 6% 28%  
53 5% 22%  
54 6% 16%  
55 2% 10%  
56 3% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 0.9% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.9%  
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 512 100% 503–520 500–523 497–527 492–532
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 451 100% 441–461 438–463 436–466 430–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 428 100% 418–438 415–441 413–444 407–448
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 409 100% 399–420 396–422 393–425 388–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 402 100% 392–412 388–415 386–417 381–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 379 99.9% 369–389 366–392 363–395 358–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 360 75% 350–370 347–374 344–376 339–382
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 318 0% 308–328 305–331 302–334 296–339
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 300 0% 289–310 287–313 284–316 279–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 292 0% 282–302 279–305 276–308 270–313
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 242 0% 233–253 230–255 228–258 223–263
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 167 0% 158–176 156–178 154–181 150–185
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 159 0% 151–168 148–170 146–173 141–177

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0.1% 99.9%  
490 0% 99.9%  
491 0.1% 99.8%  
492 0.2% 99.7%  
493 0.3% 99.5%  
494 0.1% 99.2%  
495 0.3% 99.1%  
496 0.7% 98.8%  
497 0.7% 98%  
498 0.4% 97%  
499 2% 97%  
500 2% 95%  
501 2% 93%  
502 1.0% 91%  
503 3% 90%  
504 5% 87%  
505 1.2% 83%  
506 1.1% 81%  
507 5% 80%  
508 8% 76%  
509 5% 68%  
510 3% 63%  
511 8% 60% Median
512 9% 52%  
513 6% 42%  
514 3% 37%  
515 6% 34%  
516 5% 28%  
517 2% 23%  
518 1.5% 21%  
519 5% 20%  
520 5% 14%  
521 1.4% 9%  
522 1.0% 8%  
523 2% 7%  
524 1.4% 5%  
525 0.3% 3%  
526 0.5% 3%  
527 0.8% 3%  
528 0.6% 2%  
529 0.2% 1.1%  
530 0.1% 0.9%  
531 0.3% 0.8%  
532 0.2% 0.5%  
533 0% 0.3%  
534 0% 0.3%  
535 0% 0.3%  
536 0% 0.3%  
537 0% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.2%  
539 0% 0.2%  
540 0% 0.2%  
541 0% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.2%  
544 0% 0.2%  
545 0% 0.2%  
546 0% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.2%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.7%  
430 0.1% 99.6%  
431 0.2% 99.5%  
432 0.2% 99.3%  
433 0.5% 99.1%  
434 0.6% 98.6%  
435 0.5% 98%  
436 1.0% 98%  
437 1.1% 97%  
438 0.8% 95%  
439 2% 95%  
440 2% 92%  
441 1.4% 91%  
442 3% 89%  
443 2% 86%  
444 3% 83%  
445 5% 81%  
446 4% 76%  
447 4% 71%  
448 6% 68%  
449 5% 62% Median
450 5% 57%  
451 7% 52%  
452 4% 45%  
453 4% 41%  
454 4% 36%  
455 4% 32%  
456 5% 28%  
457 4% 24%  
458 3% 20%  
459 3% 17%  
460 3% 13%  
461 1.4% 10%  
462 2% 9%  
463 2% 7%  
464 1.0% 5%  
465 1.0% 4%  
466 0.7% 3%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.5% 2%  
469 0.3% 1.0%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.2% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.1% 99.8%  
406 0.1% 99.7%  
407 0.1% 99.6%  
408 0.2% 99.5%  
409 0.3% 99.3%  
410 0.3% 99.0%  
411 0.4% 98.7%  
412 0.6% 98%  
413 0.8% 98%  
414 1.0% 97%  
415 1.0% 96%  
416 2% 95%  
417 2% 93%  
418 2% 92%  
419 3% 89%  
420 2% 86%  
421 3% 84%  
422 3% 81%  
423 5% 78%  
424 5% 72%  
425 4% 68%  
426 5% 64%  
427 5% 59% Median
428 5% 54%  
429 4% 49%  
430 5% 45%  
431 6% 40%  
432 5% 34%  
433 4% 30%  
434 3% 25%  
435 3% 22%  
436 4% 18%  
437 2% 15%  
438 3% 13%  
439 2% 10%  
440 2% 8%  
441 1.2% 6%  
442 1.3% 5%  
443 0.9% 3%  
444 0.6% 3%  
445 0.6% 2%  
446 0.5% 1.4%  
447 0.3% 1.0%  
448 0.2% 0.6%  
449 0.1% 0.5%  
450 0.1% 0.3%  
451 0.1% 0.2%  
452 0.1% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.6%  
389 0.2% 99.4%  
390 0.2% 99.2%  
391 0.5% 99.0%  
392 0.4% 98.5%  
393 0.6% 98%  
394 0.9% 97%  
395 1.2% 97%  
396 1.0% 95%  
397 1.2% 94%  
398 2% 93%  
399 2% 91%  
400 2% 89%  
401 2% 86%  
402 4% 84%  
403 6% 81%  
404 3% 75%  
405 4% 72%  
406 4% 68%  
407 4% 64%  
408 7% 60% Median
409 4% 53%  
410 3% 49%  
411 7% 46%  
412 4% 39%  
413 6% 35%  
414 2% 29%  
415 5% 26%  
416 4% 22%  
417 4% 18%  
418 1.5% 14%  
419 3% 13%  
420 2% 10% Last Result
421 2% 8%  
422 1.4% 6%  
423 1.0% 5%  
424 1.0% 4%  
425 0.8% 3%  
426 0.5% 2%  
427 0.3% 1.4%  
428 0.3% 1.1%  
429 0.3% 0.8%  
430 0.2% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.2% 99.6%  
382 0.2% 99.4%  
383 0.4% 99.2%  
384 0.5% 98.8%  
385 0.6% 98%  
386 0.7% 98%  
387 1.1% 97%  
388 1.0% 96%  
389 1.3% 95%  
390 2% 94%  
391 2% 92%  
392 2% 90%  
393 2% 88%  
394 3% 85%  
395 4% 82%  
396 4% 78%  
397 3% 74%  
398 6% 71%  
399 5% 65%  
400 4% 61%  
401 5% 56% Median
402 6% 51%  
403 5% 45%  
404 5% 40%  
405 5% 35%  
406 3% 30%  
407 4% 27%  
408 4% 23%  
409 3% 19%  
410 3% 16%  
411 3% 13%  
412 2% 11%  
413 2% 9%  
414 1.3% 7%  
415 1.5% 6%  
416 1.1% 4%  
417 0.7% 3%  
418 0.5% 2%  
419 0.5% 2%  
420 0.4% 1.4%  
421 0.2% 1.0%  
422 0.2% 0.8%  
423 0.1% 0.6%  
424 0.1% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0% 0.3%  
428 0% 0.2%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0.1% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.7%  
358 0.2% 99.6%  
359 0.2% 99.5%  
360 0.3% 99.2%  
361 0.4% 99.0%  
362 0.6% 98.6%  
363 0.9% 98%  
364 0.6% 97%  
365 1.1% 97%  
366 1.1% 95%  
367 2% 94%  
368 2% 93%  
369 3% 91%  
370 2% 88%  
371 2% 86%  
372 4% 83%  
373 3% 80%  
374 4% 76%  
375 4% 72%  
376 4% 68%  
377 5% 64%  
378 6% 59%  
379 6% 53% Median
380 5% 47%  
381 4% 42%  
382 5% 38%  
383 4% 34%  
384 6% 30%  
385 3% 24%  
386 3% 20%  
387 3% 17%  
388 3% 14%  
389 2% 12%  
390 2% 10%  
391 2% 8%  
392 1.2% 6%  
393 1.0% 5%  
394 0.7% 4%  
395 0.6% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.2% 1.2%  
399 0.2% 1.0% Last Result
400 0.2% 0.7%  
401 0.1% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 99.9%  
336 0.1% 99.9%  
337 0.1% 99.8%  
338 0.1% 99.7%  
339 0.2% 99.6%  
340 0.3% 99.5% Last Result
341 0.3% 99.2%  
342 0.5% 99.0%  
343 0.5% 98%  
344 0.7% 98%  
345 0.7% 97%  
346 1.1% 96%  
347 1.1% 95%  
348 2% 94%  
349 2% 92%  
350 3% 91%  
351 3% 88%  
352 3% 85%  
353 2% 82%  
354 4% 80%  
355 4% 75% Majority
356 3% 71%  
357 5% 68%  
358 4% 62%  
359 5% 59%  
360 6% 53% Median
361 6% 48%  
362 4% 42%  
363 4% 38%  
364 4% 34%  
365 4% 29%  
366 3% 25%  
367 5% 22%  
368 3% 17%  
369 3% 14%  
370 2% 11%  
371 2% 10%  
372 2% 8%  
373 1.1% 6%  
374 1.4% 5%  
375 0.7% 4%  
376 0.7% 3%  
377 0.5% 2%  
378 0.4% 2%  
379 0.3% 1.3%  
380 0.2% 1.0%  
381 0.2% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.5%  
383 0.1% 0.4%  
384 0.1% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.3%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.8%  
293 0% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.6%  
297 0.1% 99.5%  
298 0.2% 99.4%  
299 0.3% 99.2%  
300 0.4% 98.9%  
301 0.5% 98.6%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 0.6% 97%  
304 1.5% 97%  
305 1.2% 95%  
306 1.1% 94%  
307 2% 93%  
308 2% 91%  
309 3% 89%  
310 4% 86%  
311 2% 83%  
312 3% 80%  
313 4% 77%  
314 6% 73%  
315 4% 67%  
316 4% 63%  
317 5% 59% Median
318 5% 54%  
319 6% 49%  
320 4% 43%  
321 4% 39%  
322 4% 35%  
323 6% 31%  
324 4% 25%  
325 3% 22%  
326 3% 19% Last Result
327 3% 16%  
328 4% 13%  
329 2% 9%  
330 2% 8%  
331 1.4% 6%  
332 1.1% 5%  
333 1.1% 4%  
334 0.7% 3%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.1%  
338 0.3% 0.8%  
339 0.2% 0.6%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.8%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0.2% 99.6%  
280 0.3% 99.5%  
281 0.3% 99.2%  
282 0.3% 98.9%  
283 0.5% 98.6%  
284 0.8% 98%  
285 1.0% 97%  
286 1.0% 96%  
287 1.4% 95%  
288 2% 94%  
289 2% 92% Last Result
290 3% 90%  
291 1.5% 87%  
292 4% 86%  
293 4% 82%  
294 5% 78%  
295 2% 74%  
296 6% 71%  
297 4% 65%  
298 7% 61%  
299 3% 54% Median
300 4% 51%  
301 7% 47%  
302 4% 40%  
303 4% 36%  
304 4% 32%  
305 3% 28%  
306 6% 25%  
307 4% 19%  
308 2% 16%  
309 2% 14%  
310 2% 11%  
311 2% 9%  
312 1.2% 7%  
313 1.0% 6%  
314 1.2% 5%  
315 0.9% 3%  
316 0.6% 3%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.5% 1.5%  
319 0.2% 1.0%  
320 0.2% 0.8%  
321 0.2% 0.6%  
322 0.1% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.3%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
254 0% 100%  
255 0% 99.9%  
256 0% 99.9%  
257 0% 99.9%  
258 0% 99.9%  
259 0% 99.9%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0% 99.8%  
268 0.1% 99.7%  
269 0% 99.7%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.2% 99.4%  
273 0.3% 99.2%  
274 0.2% 98.8%  
275 1.0% 98.7%  
276 0.3% 98%  
277 1.0% 97%  
278 0.9% 96%  
279 0.7% 95%  
280 2% 95%  
281 1.2% 92%  
282 2% 91%  
283 4% 89%  
284 2% 85%  
285 5% 83%  
286 3% 78%  
287 3% 75%  
288 6% 72%  
289 3% 66%  
290 7% 63% Median
291 4% 56%  
292 4% 52%  
293 9% 48%  
294 2% 39%  
295 4% 36%  
296 3% 32%  
297 3% 29%  
298 6% 26%  
299 2% 20%  
300 4% 18% Last Result
301 3% 14%  
302 2% 11%  
303 2% 9%  
304 0.9% 7%  
305 1.2% 6%  
306 1.1% 5%  
307 0.8% 4%  
308 1.0% 3%  
309 0.5% 2%  
310 0.3% 1.2%  
311 0.3% 0.9%  
312 0.1% 0.7%  
313 0.2% 0.5%  
314 0.1% 0.4%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.2%  
317 0% 0.1%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.8%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.2% 99.6%  
224 0.2% 99.5%  
225 0.4% 99.2%  
226 0.4% 98.8%  
227 0.7% 98%  
228 0.6% 98%  
229 1.1% 97%  
230 2% 96%  
231 2% 95%  
232 2% 93%  
233 2% 91%  
234 3% 89%  
235 3% 86%  
236 4% 83%  
237 4% 79%  
238 3% 75%  
239 4% 71%  
240 6% 67%  
241 6% 61%  
242 6% 55% Median
243 4% 49%  
244 4% 45%  
245 5% 41%  
246 6% 36%  
247 4% 30%  
248 4% 26%  
249 4% 22%  
250 3% 18%  
251 3% 15%  
252 3% 13%  
253 2% 10%  
254 1.5% 8%  
255 1.4% 6%  
256 1.2% 5%  
257 1.0% 4%  
258 0.8% 3%  
259 0.6% 2%  
260 0.4% 1.5%  
261 0.3% 1.1%  
262 0.2% 0.8%  
263 0.2% 0.6%  
264 0.1% 0.4%  
265 0.1% 0.3%  
266 0.1% 0.2%  
267 0% 0.2%  
268 0% 0.1%  
269 0% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
145 0% 100%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.8%  
149 0.1% 99.7%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.3% 99.4%  
152 0.5% 99.1%  
153 0.8% 98.6%  
154 0.9% 98%  
155 1.1% 97%  
156 1.4% 96%  
157 2% 94%  
158 3% 92%  
159 3% 89%  
160 3% 86%  
161 4% 83%  
162 3% 79%  
163 5% 75%  
164 5% 70%  
165 6% 65%  
166 6% 59%  
167 4% 53% Median
168 6% 49%  
169 7% 43%  
170 6% 36%  
171 5% 30%  
172 3% 26%  
173 5% 22%  
174 3% 17%  
175 2% 14%  
176 3% 11%  
177 2% 8%  
178 2% 6%  
179 1.0% 5%  
180 1.1% 4%  
181 0.7% 3%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.4% 1.3%  
184 0.2% 0.9%  
185 0.2% 0.7%  
186 0.2% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.3%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0% 99.8%  
121 0% 99.8%  
122 0% 99.8%  
123 0% 99.8%  
124 0% 99.8%  
125 0% 99.8%  
126 0% 99.8%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.8%  
133 0% 99.8%  
134 0% 99.8%  
135 0% 99.8%  
136 0% 99.7%  
137 0% 99.7%  
138 0% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.7%  
140 0.1% 99.6%  
141 0.1% 99.5%  
142 0.3% 99.5%  
143 0.2% 99.2%  
144 0.4% 99.0%  
145 0.6% 98.6%  
146 0.7% 98%  
147 1.2% 97%  
148 1.4% 96%  
149 2% 95%  
150 2% 93%  
151 2% 91%  
152 4% 88%  
153 3% 85%  
154 5% 81%  
155 6% 76%  
156 4% 71%  
157 7% 66%  
158 5% 59% Median
159 7% 55%  
160 4% 48%  
161 7% 43%  
162 5% 36%  
163 4% 31%  
164 5% 27%  
165 5% 23%  
166 5% 18%  
167 2% 14%  
168 3% 12%  
169 2% 8%  
170 1.5% 6%  
171 1.2% 5%  
172 1.0% 4%  
173 0.9% 3%  
174 0.4% 2%  
175 0.5% 1.5%  
176 0.4% 0.9%  
177 0.1% 0.6%  
178 0.2% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations