Opinion Poll by YouGov, 22–26 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.0–29.9% 26.7–30.3% 26.3–30.7% 25.7–31.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.2–19.9% 15.7–20.5%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.0–13.1% 10.8–13.4% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 5.9–7.4% 5.7–7.7% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 212 201–223 198–227 196–230 191–237
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 125–144 123–146 121–149 117–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 104–121 101–123 99–126 96–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 90 82–98 80–100 78–102 75–106
Die Linke 69 67 61–74 59–76 58–78 55–82
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 44–56 42–57 41–59 39–62
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–52 0–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0.1% 99.6%  
192 0.3% 99.5%  
193 0.3% 99.2%  
194 0.4% 98.9%  
195 0.5% 98.5%  
196 0.9% 98%  
197 1.0% 97%  
198 1.2% 96%  
199 1.4% 95%  
200 2% 94% Last Result
201 2% 92%  
202 2% 90%  
203 3% 88%  
204 3% 85%  
205 3% 82%  
206 4% 78%  
207 3% 75%  
208 4% 71%  
209 5% 67%  
210 6% 62%  
211 4% 57%  
212 4% 53% Median
213 6% 49%  
214 5% 43%  
215 5% 38%  
216 4% 33%  
217 4% 30%  
218 4% 26%  
219 3% 22%  
220 3% 18%  
221 2% 16%  
222 2% 13%  
223 2% 11%  
224 2% 9%  
225 1.2% 7%  
226 1.0% 6%  
227 1.1% 5%  
228 0.8% 4%  
229 0.5% 3%  
230 0.5% 3%  
231 0.5% 2%  
232 0.4% 2%  
233 0.2% 1.3%  
234 0.2% 1.1%  
235 0.2% 0.9%  
236 0.2% 0.7%  
237 0.2% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.7%  
117 0.2% 99.6%  
118 0.3% 99.3%  
119 0.8% 99.1%  
120 0.6% 98%  
121 0.7% 98%  
122 1.5% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 3% 94%  
125 2% 91%  
126 2% 90%  
127 4% 87%  
128 4% 83%  
129 3% 79%  
130 4% 76%  
131 6% 72%  
132 7% 66%  
133 5% 60%  
134 5% 55% Median
135 5% 50%  
136 8% 45%  
137 5% 37%  
138 3% 32%  
139 5% 29%  
140 4% 24%  
141 5% 20%  
142 2% 15%  
143 2% 13%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 1.4% 6%  
147 0.9% 5%  
148 0.9% 4%  
149 1.1% 3%  
150 0.5% 2%  
151 0.4% 1.5%  
152 0.2% 1.1%  
153 0.3% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0% 0.2%  
158 0% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.5%  
97 0.4% 99.3%  
98 0.6% 98.8%  
99 1.1% 98%  
100 1.0% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 2% 95%  
103 2% 93%  
104 4% 91%  
105 5% 87%  
106 3% 82%  
107 4% 79%  
108 5% 75%  
109 4% 69%  
110 7% 65%  
111 7% 58%  
112 6% 51% Median
113 6% 45%  
114 4% 39%  
115 6% 34%  
116 4% 29%  
117 3% 24%  
118 5% 21%  
119 4% 16%  
120 2% 12%  
121 2% 10%  
122 2% 8%  
123 1.1% 6%  
124 1.2% 5%  
125 1.1% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.5% 2%  
128 0.3% 1.2%  
129 0.3% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.6%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.3% 99.4%  
77 0.6% 99.1%  
78 1.3% 98%  
79 1.2% 97%  
80 1.5% 96%  
81 2% 95%  
82 3% 93%  
83 4% 89%  
84 4% 86%  
85 5% 82%  
86 6% 77%  
87 7% 71%  
88 7% 64%  
89 6% 57%  
90 6% 51% Median
91 7% 45%  
92 6% 38%  
93 5% 32%  
94 5% 27% Last Result
95 5% 22%  
96 3% 17%  
97 3% 14%  
98 3% 11%  
99 2% 8%  
100 1.5% 6%  
101 1.2% 4%  
102 0.9% 3%  
103 0.7% 2%  
104 0.4% 2%  
105 0.3% 1.1%  
106 0.3% 0.8%  
107 0.2% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 0.7% 99.1%  
57 0.9% 98%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 4% 91%  
62 4% 86%  
63 6% 82%  
64 6% 77%  
65 7% 70%  
66 6% 64%  
67 8% 58% Median
68 8% 50%  
69 8% 42% Last Result
70 7% 34%  
71 6% 27%  
72 5% 21%  
73 4% 16%  
74 3% 13%  
75 3% 9%  
76 2% 7%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.5%  
81 0.3% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.5%  
40 0.9% 98.9%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 3% 94%  
44 5% 91%  
45 6% 87%  
46 7% 80% Last Result
47 9% 73%  
48 7% 65%  
49 8% 57% Median
50 10% 50%  
51 7% 39%  
52 8% 32%  
53 6% 24%  
54 4% 18%  
55 4% 14%  
56 3% 10%  
57 3% 7%  
58 2% 4%  
59 0.7% 3%  
60 0.7% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.2%  
62 0.3% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0.3% 96%  
38 3% 96%  
39 3% 93%  
40 5% 90%  
41 7% 85%  
42 8% 78%  
43 8% 69%  
44 9% 61%  
45 9% 52% Median
46 9% 43%  
47 8% 34%  
48 7% 26%  
49 5% 19%  
50 4% 14%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 7%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.0% 3%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.4% 1.0%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 508 100% 497–519 494–524 491–536 486–548
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 440 100% 428–451 424–455 420–457 411–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 417 100% 406–429 401–432 397–435 388–440
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 396 100% 384–408 381–413 378–419 372–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 396 99.9% 383–407 379–410 374–413 365–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 373 98% 362–386 358–391 355–396 350–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 35% 340–364 336–368 334–373 328–384
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 313 0.1% 302–326 299–330 296–335 291–344
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 306 0% 293–317 288–320 282–323 269–329
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 291 0% 278–302 273–305 266–308 253–313
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 235–258 232–261 230–265 225–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 169–190 167–193 164–196 159–202
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 156 0% 146–166 142–169 123–172 112–176

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 99.9%  
482 0% 99.9%  
483 0.1% 99.9%  
484 0.1% 99.8%  
485 0.1% 99.7%  
486 0.2% 99.6%  
487 0.3% 99.4%  
488 0.3% 99.1%  
489 0.4% 98.8%  
490 0.6% 98%  
491 0.6% 98%  
492 0.9% 97%  
493 1.4% 96%  
494 0.8% 95%  
495 1.5% 94%  
496 2% 93%  
497 3% 91%  
498 3% 88%  
499 2% 85%  
500 4% 82%  
501 3% 79%  
502 4% 76%  
503 5% 72%  
504 3% 67%  
505 5% 64%  
506 4% 59%  
507 4% 55% Median
508 5% 51%  
509 6% 46%  
510 4% 40%  
511 6% 36%  
512 4% 30%  
513 3% 26%  
514 4% 23%  
515 3% 19%  
516 2% 16%  
517 2% 14%  
518 2% 12%  
519 2% 10%  
520 1.3% 9%  
521 1.2% 8%  
522 0.7% 6%  
523 0.5% 6%  
524 0.5% 5%  
525 0.4% 5%  
526 0.3% 4%  
527 0.3% 4%  
528 0.1% 4%  
529 0.1% 4%  
530 0.1% 3%  
531 0% 3%  
532 0.1% 3%  
533 0.1% 3%  
534 0.2% 3%  
535 0.2% 3%  
536 0.3% 3%  
537 0.1% 2%  
538 0.2% 2%  
539 0.1% 2%  
540 0.1% 2%  
541 0.1% 2%  
542 0.1% 2%  
543 0.1% 2%  
544 0.3% 2%  
545 0.2% 1.3%  
546 0.4% 1.1%  
547 0.2% 0.8%  
548 0.1% 0.6%  
549 0.1% 0.5%  
550 0.1% 0.4%  
551 0% 0.3%  
552 0% 0.3%  
553 0% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.2%  
556 0% 0.2%  
557 0.1% 0.1%  
558 0.1% 0.1%  
559 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.8%  
410 0% 99.7%  
411 0.2% 99.6%  
412 0% 99.4%  
413 0.1% 99.4%  
414 0.2% 99.3%  
415 0.1% 99.0%  
416 0.3% 98.9%  
417 0.2% 98.6%  
418 0.3% 98%  
419 0.3% 98%  
420 0.5% 98%  
421 0.3% 97%  
422 0.7% 97%  
423 1.0% 96%  
424 0.8% 95%  
425 1.0% 95%  
426 1.1% 94%  
427 1.4% 92%  
428 3% 91%  
429 2% 88%  
430 2% 87%  
431 2% 85%  
432 3% 83%  
433 4% 80%  
434 3% 76%  
435 4% 73%  
436 4% 69%  
437 5% 65%  
438 3% 60%  
439 5% 58%  
440 5% 53% Median
441 4% 48%  
442 5% 44%  
443 4% 39%  
444 6% 36%  
445 3% 30%  
446 4% 27%  
447 2% 23%  
448 4% 20%  
449 3% 17%  
450 2% 14%  
451 2% 11%  
452 2% 10%  
453 2% 8%  
454 1.0% 6%  
455 2% 5%  
456 0.6% 3%  
457 0.7% 3%  
458 0.4% 2%  
459 0.6% 2%  
460 0.4% 1.2%  
461 0.2% 0.8%  
462 0.2% 0.6%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0.2% 0.4%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0% 99.8%  
385 0% 99.7%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0% 99.6%  
388 0.1% 99.6%  
389 0.1% 99.5%  
390 0.1% 99.4%  
391 0.3% 99.3%  
392 0.2% 99.0%  
393 0.2% 98.7%  
394 0.3% 98.5%  
395 0.2% 98%  
396 0.5% 98%  
397 0.4% 98%  
398 0.6% 97%  
399 0.4% 97%  
400 0.4% 96%  
401 1.1% 96%  
402 0.9% 95%  
403 1.1% 94%  
404 1.2% 93%  
405 1.4% 91%  
406 2% 90%  
407 2% 88%  
408 3% 86%  
409 2% 83%  
410 3% 81%  
411 2% 78%  
412 5% 76%  
413 5% 71%  
414 3% 66%  
415 4% 63%  
416 4% 59%  
417 6% 55%  
418 4% 49% Median
419 5% 45%  
420 4% 40%  
421 4% 36%  
422 4% 33%  
423 5% 29%  
424 4% 25%  
425 2% 21%  
426 2% 18%  
427 3% 16%  
428 2% 13%  
429 2% 11%  
430 1.4% 9%  
431 1.1% 7%  
432 2% 6%  
433 0.9% 5%  
434 1.0% 4%  
435 0.5% 3%  
436 0.5% 2%  
437 0.3% 2%  
438 0.5% 1.3%  
439 0.2% 0.8%  
440 0.2% 0.6%  
441 0.1% 0.4%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0.1% 0.2%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.1%  
446 0% 0.1%  
447 0% 0%  
448 0% 0%  
449 0% 0%  
450 0% 0%  
451 0% 0%  
452 0% 0%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.6%  
373 0.1% 99.5%  
374 0.2% 99.3%  
375 0.4% 99.2%  
376 0.5% 98.8%  
377 0.8% 98%  
378 0.7% 98%  
379 0.7% 97%  
380 0.7% 96%  
381 1.4% 95%  
382 1.2% 94%  
383 2% 93%  
384 2% 91%  
385 2% 89%  
386 2% 87%  
387 3% 84%  
388 2% 81%  
389 4% 79%  
390 4% 76%  
391 5% 71%  
392 3% 66%  
393 3% 63%  
394 3% 60%  
395 4% 57% Median
396 7% 53%  
397 4% 46%  
398 4% 41%  
399 5% 38%  
400 2% 32%  
401 3% 30%  
402 3% 27%  
403 4% 24%  
404 2% 20%  
405 3% 18%  
406 1.3% 14%  
407 2% 13%  
408 1.4% 11%  
409 1.3% 10%  
410 1.4% 8%  
411 1.0% 7%  
412 0.9% 6%  
413 0.5% 5%  
414 0.5% 5%  
415 0.5% 4%  
416 0.4% 4%  
417 0.4% 3%  
418 0.2% 3%  
419 0.2% 3%  
420 0.2% 2%  
421 0.1% 2%  
422 0.3% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.1% 2%  
425 0.3% 1.5%  
426 0% 1.2%  
427 0.1% 1.1%  
428 0.1% 1.0%  
429 0.1% 0.9%  
430 0.2% 0.8%  
431 0% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.4%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.3%  
436 0.1% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.2%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.8%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.1% 99.5%  
366 0.1% 99.4%  
367 0.1% 99.3%  
368 0.1% 99.2%  
369 0.1% 99.1%  
370 0.2% 99.0%  
371 0.3% 98.8%  
372 0.2% 98.5%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 0.5% 98%  
375 0.4% 97%  
376 0.4% 97%  
377 0.7% 97%  
378 0.6% 96%  
379 0.9% 95%  
380 1.0% 94%  
381 0.9% 93%  
382 1.4% 93%  
383 1.4% 91%  
384 2% 90%  
385 2% 88%  
386 2% 86%  
387 3% 84%  
388 4% 81%  
389 3% 77%  
390 3% 74%  
391 3% 70%  
392 6% 68%  
393 4% 62%  
394 3% 58%  
395 4% 55%  
396 7% 50% Median
397 4% 43%  
398 4% 40%  
399 3% 36%  
400 3% 32%  
401 4% 29%  
402 3% 25%  
403 3% 22%  
404 2% 18%  
405 3% 16%  
406 2% 14%  
407 2% 11%  
408 1.5% 9%  
409 1.1% 8%  
410 2% 7%  
411 0.9% 5%  
412 0.6% 4%  
413 0.7% 3%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.3%  
417 0.2% 0.9%  
418 0.2% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.8%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.7%  
350 0.1% 99.6%  
351 0.2% 99.5%  
352 0.2% 99.2%  
353 0.4% 99.0%  
354 0.6% 98.6%  
355 0.6% 98% Majority
356 1.0% 97%  
357 0.7% 96%  
358 1.1% 96%  
359 1.2% 95%  
360 2% 93%  
361 2% 92%  
362 2% 90%  
363 2% 89%  
364 2% 86%  
365 3% 84%  
366 3% 81%  
367 5% 78%  
368 3% 73%  
369 5% 70%  
370 5% 65%  
371 5% 60%  
372 3% 55%  
373 4% 52% Median
374 3% 48%  
375 4% 45%  
376 5% 41%  
377 4% 36%  
378 4% 32%  
379 3% 28%  
380 4% 26%  
381 4% 22%  
382 2% 18%  
383 3% 16%  
384 1.5% 13%  
385 1.2% 11%  
386 1.3% 10%  
387 1.0% 9%  
388 1.1% 8%  
389 0.9% 7%  
390 0.7% 6%  
391 0.7% 5%  
392 0.5% 4%  
393 0.6% 4%  
394 0.4% 3%  
395 0.3% 3%  
396 0.4% 3%  
397 0.2% 2%  
398 0.3% 2%  
399 0.1% 2% Last Result
400 0.1% 2%  
401 0.1% 1.4%  
402 0.1% 1.3%  
403 0.2% 1.2%  
404 0.1% 1.1%  
405 0.1% 0.9%  
406 0.1% 0.8%  
407 0.1% 0.7%  
408 0% 0.6%  
409 0.2% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.2% 99.6%  
329 0.2% 99.4%  
330 0.3% 99.2%  
331 0.3% 98.9%  
332 0.5% 98.7%  
333 0.6% 98%  
334 0.6% 98%  
335 0.9% 97%  
336 1.0% 96%  
337 1.3% 95%  
338 2% 94%  
339 1.3% 91%  
340 2% 90% Last Result
341 2% 88%  
342 2% 86%  
343 3% 84%  
344 3% 81%  
345 3% 77%  
346 5% 74%  
347 4% 68%  
348 4% 64%  
349 4% 60%  
350 3% 56%  
351 4% 53% Median
352 3% 48%  
353 4% 45%  
354 6% 41%  
355 3% 35% Majority
356 5% 32%  
357 3% 27%  
358 3% 24%  
359 2% 21%  
360 2% 19%  
361 2% 17%  
362 2% 15%  
363 2% 13%  
364 1.0% 10%  
365 1.4% 9%  
366 1.3% 8%  
367 0.9% 6%  
368 0.5% 5%  
369 0.7% 5%  
370 0.5% 4%  
371 0.5% 4%  
372 0.3% 3%  
373 0.6% 3%  
374 0.5% 2%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.3% 2%  
378 0.1% 1.2%  
379 0.1% 1.1%  
380 0.2% 1.0%  
381 0.1% 0.8%  
382 0.1% 0.7%  
383 0.1% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.5%  
385 0.1% 0.5%  
386 0.1% 0.4%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.2%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0.1%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.5%  
292 0.2% 99.3%  
293 0.4% 99.1%  
294 0.4% 98.7%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 0.7% 98%  
297 0.6% 97%  
298 0.9% 96%  
299 2% 95%  
300 1.1% 93%  
301 1.5% 92%  
302 2% 91%  
303 2% 89%  
304 3% 86%  
305 2% 84%  
306 3% 82%  
307 3% 78%  
308 4% 75%  
309 3% 71%  
310 3% 68%  
311 4% 64%  
312 4% 60%  
313 7% 57% Median
314 4% 50%  
315 3% 45%  
316 4% 42%  
317 6% 38%  
318 3% 32%  
319 3% 30%  
320 3% 26%  
321 4% 23%  
322 3% 19%  
323 2% 16%  
324 2% 14%  
325 2% 12%  
326 1.4% 10%  
327 1.4% 9%  
328 0.9% 7%  
329 1.0% 7%  
330 0.9% 6%  
331 0.6% 5%  
332 0.7% 4%  
333 0.4% 3%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.2% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.5%  
339 0.2% 1.2%  
340 0.1% 1.0%  
341 0.1% 0.9%  
342 0.1% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.2%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
259 0% 100%  
260 0% 99.9%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.8%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0.1% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.7%  
268 0.1% 99.6%  
269 0.1% 99.5%  
270 0% 99.4%  
271 0.2% 99.4%  
272 0.1% 99.2%  
273 0.2% 99.1%  
274 0.1% 98.9%  
275 0.1% 98.8%  
276 0.2% 98.7%  
277 0.3% 98.6%  
278 0.1% 98%  
279 0.2% 98%  
280 0.2% 98%  
281 0.2% 98%  
282 0.3% 98%  
283 0.3% 97%  
284 0.2% 97%  
285 0.3% 97%  
286 0.5% 97%  
287 0.5% 96%  
288 0.6% 96%  
289 0.8% 95%  
290 0.9% 94%  
291 0.9% 93%  
292 2% 92%  
293 1.2% 91%  
294 2% 90%  
295 2% 88%  
296 4% 86%  
297 2% 83%  
298 3% 81%  
299 4% 78%  
300 3% 75%  
301 5% 72%  
302 3% 67%  
303 5% 64%  
304 4% 60%  
305 5% 56%  
306 4% 51% Median
307 4% 47%  
308 3% 42%  
309 6% 39%  
310 4% 33%  
311 4% 30%  
312 3% 26%  
313 3% 23%  
314 3% 20%  
315 2% 16%  
316 3% 14%  
317 2% 12%  
318 2% 10%  
319 1.3% 7%  
320 1.2% 6%  
321 0.9% 5%  
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.8% 3%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.3% 1.4% Last Result
327 0.4% 1.1%  
328 0.2% 0.7%  
329 0.2% 0.6%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.2%  
333 0.1% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 99.9%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0.1% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.8%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0.1% 99.8%  
251 0% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.1% 99.5%  
254 0.1% 99.5%  
255 0.1% 99.4%  
256 0.1% 99.3%  
257 0.1% 99.2%  
258 0.2% 99.1%  
259 0.1% 98.9%  
260 0.1% 98.7%  
261 0.1% 98.6%  
262 0.2% 98.6%  
263 0.3% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.2% 97%  
268 0.3% 97%  
269 0.4% 97%  
270 0.3% 96%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.3% 96%  
273 0.8% 95%  
274 0.6% 95%  
275 0.9% 94%  
276 1.1% 93%  
277 1.0% 92%  
278 2% 91%  
279 2% 89%  
280 2% 88%  
281 2% 86%  
282 3% 84%  
283 3% 81%  
284 4% 78%  
285 3% 74%  
286 5% 71%  
287 2% 66%  
288 4% 63%  
289 4% 59%  
290 4% 55%  
291 5% 51% Median
292 3% 46%  
293 5% 43%  
294 5% 38%  
295 5% 33%  
296 3% 28%  
297 4% 25%  
298 2% 21%  
299 3% 19%  
300 2% 16% Last Result
301 3% 14%  
302 2% 11%  
303 2% 9%  
304 1.0% 7%  
305 1.4% 6%  
306 0.8% 5%  
307 0.9% 4%  
308 0.8% 3%  
309 0.4% 2%  
310 0.5% 2%  
311 0.2% 1.2%  
312 0.3% 1.0%  
313 0.2% 0.6%  
314 0.1% 0.5%  
315 0.1% 0.3%  
316 0.1% 0.3%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.1%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
218 0% 100%  
219 0% 99.9%  
220 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0.1% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.7%  
224 0.1% 99.6%  
225 0.2% 99.5%  
226 0.3% 99.3%  
227 0.5% 99.0%  
228 0.4% 98%  
229 0.5% 98%  
230 1.0% 98%  
231 0.8% 97%  
232 2% 96%  
233 1.2% 94%  
234 1.0% 93%  
235 2% 92%  
236 2% 90%  
237 3% 88%  
238 4% 84%  
239 3% 81%  
240 3% 78%  
241 3% 74%  
242 4% 71%  
243 5% 67%  
244 7% 62%  
245 3% 55%  
246 3% 53% Median
247 5% 49%  
248 5% 44%  
249 5% 39%  
250 4% 34%  
251 3% 30%  
252 3% 28%  
253 3% 25%  
254 4% 21%  
255 3% 17%  
256 2% 15%  
257 1.2% 13%  
258 2% 11%  
259 2% 9%  
260 2% 8%  
261 0.9% 6%  
262 0.6% 5%  
263 0.7% 4%  
264 0.9% 4%  
265 0.6% 3%  
266 0.3% 2%  
267 0.3% 2%  
268 0.3% 2%  
269 0.3% 1.3%  
270 0.2% 1.0%  
271 0.1% 0.7%  
272 0.1% 0.6%  
273 0.1% 0.5%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.2%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.2% 99.7%  
160 0.3% 99.5%  
161 0.2% 99.2%  
162 0.4% 99.0%  
163 0.5% 98.6%  
164 0.8% 98%  
165 0.9% 97%  
166 1.3% 96%  
167 1.4% 95%  
168 2% 94%  
169 2% 92%  
170 3% 90%  
171 3% 87%  
172 4% 84%  
173 4% 80%  
174 5% 76%  
175 4% 71%  
176 3% 67%  
177 5% 64%  
178 5% 59%  
179 4% 53% Median
180 5% 49%  
181 6% 44%  
182 5% 38%  
183 4% 33%  
184 4% 29%  
185 4% 25%  
186 2% 21%  
187 3% 19%  
188 3% 16%  
189 3% 13%  
190 2% 10%  
191 1.4% 8%  
192 1.3% 7%  
193 1.4% 6%  
194 0.8% 4%  
195 0.7% 4%  
196 0.6% 3%  
197 0.7% 2%  
198 0.3% 1.5%  
199 0.3% 1.2%  
200 0.2% 0.9%  
201 0.1% 0.7%  
202 0.1% 0.5%  
203 0.1% 0.4%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0% 0.2%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 99.9%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.1% 99.7%  
111 0.1% 99.6%  
112 0.1% 99.5%  
113 0.2% 99.5%  
114 0.3% 99.3%  
115 0.1% 99.0%  
116 0.2% 98.9%  
117 0.1% 98.7%  
118 0.1% 98.6%  
119 0.2% 98%  
120 0.3% 98%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.1% 98%  
123 0.2% 98%  
124 0.1% 97%  
125 0.2% 97%  
126 0.1% 97%  
127 0.1% 97%  
128 0.1% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0.1% 97%  
131 0% 97%  
132 0.1% 97%  
133 0% 97%  
134 0% 96%  
135 0.1% 96%  
136 0.1% 96%  
137 0.1% 96%  
138 0.2% 96%  
139 0.2% 96%  
140 0.3% 96%  
141 0.5% 96%  
142 0.7% 95%  
143 0.7% 94%  
144 1.3% 94%  
145 1.0% 92%  
146 2% 91%  
147 2% 89%  
148 3% 88%  
149 3% 84%  
150 4% 81%  
151 3% 77%  
152 5% 74%  
153 5% 70%  
154 5% 65%  
155 6% 60%  
156 4% 54%  
157 5% 50% Median
158 7% 45%  
159 5% 38%  
160 5% 34%  
161 5% 29%  
162 3% 25%  
163 4% 21%  
164 3% 17%  
165 4% 14%  
166 2% 11%  
167 2% 9%  
168 2% 7%  
169 1.1% 6%  
170 1.3% 4%  
171 0.7% 3%  
172 0.7% 3%  
173 0.6% 2%  
174 0.3% 1.2%  
175 0.3% 0.9%  
176 0.2% 0.6%  
177 0.1% 0.4%  
178 0.1% 0.3%  
179 0.1% 0.2%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations