Opinion Poll by Kantar, 22–28 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.2–29.8% 26.8–30.1% 26.5–30.5% 25.9–31.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 214 205–224 202–226 200–229 195–234
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 135–152 133–154 131–157 127–161
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 105–121 103–123 102–125 98–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 69–82 68–84 66–86 63–89
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 53–68 52–69 49–73
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–58 46–60 45–62 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 45–55 43–56 42–58 39–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.8%  
195 0.2% 99.6%  
196 0.4% 99.4%  
197 0.4% 99.1%  
198 0.4% 98.7%  
199 0.4% 98%  
200 1.0% 98% Last Result
201 2% 97%  
202 1.4% 95%  
203 2% 94%  
204 2% 92%  
205 3% 91%  
206 3% 87%  
207 4% 84%  
208 3% 81%  
209 4% 78%  
210 4% 74%  
211 8% 70%  
212 4% 62%  
213 3% 58%  
214 6% 55% Median
215 5% 49%  
216 8% 44%  
217 3% 36%  
218 4% 32%  
219 4% 28%  
220 6% 24%  
221 3% 19%  
222 3% 16%  
223 2% 12%  
224 1.4% 11%  
225 3% 9%  
226 2% 7%  
227 1.2% 5%  
228 0.4% 4%  
229 0.8% 3%  
230 0.5% 2%  
231 0.8% 2%  
232 0.2% 1.0%  
233 0.1% 0.8%  
234 0.2% 0.6%  
235 0.1% 0.4%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0.1% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0.1%  
241 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.8%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.3% 99.6%  
128 0.4% 99.3%  
129 0.4% 99.0%  
130 0.9% 98.6%  
131 1.0% 98%  
132 2% 97%  
133 1.4% 95%  
134 3% 94%  
135 3% 91%  
136 3% 88%  
137 4% 85%  
138 4% 82%  
139 5% 78%  
140 6% 73%  
141 5% 66%  
142 5% 61%  
143 6% 56% Median
144 5% 49%  
145 7% 44%  
146 5% 37%  
147 5% 33%  
148 7% 28%  
149 4% 21%  
150 4% 17%  
151 3% 14%  
152 2% 11%  
153 2% 8%  
154 2% 6%  
155 1.1% 5%  
156 1.0% 4%  
157 0.8% 3%  
158 0.6% 2%  
159 0.3% 1.1%  
160 0.3% 0.8%  
161 0.2% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.4%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0.1% 0.2%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.2% 99.6%  
99 0.3% 99.4%  
100 0.8% 99.1%  
101 0.6% 98%  
102 1.3% 98%  
103 2% 96%  
104 1.4% 94%  
105 4% 93%  
106 3% 89%  
107 3% 86%  
108 6% 82%  
109 4% 76%  
110 8% 72%  
111 7% 64%  
112 6% 58%  
113 8% 52% Median
114 5% 44%  
115 6% 39%  
116 8% 33%  
117 3% 25%  
118 6% 22%  
119 3% 16%  
120 2% 13%  
121 4% 10%  
122 1.0% 7%  
123 2% 6%  
124 1.5% 4%  
125 0.6% 3%  
126 0.8% 2%  
127 0.3% 1.2%  
128 0.3% 0.9%  
129 0.3% 0.6%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.4%  
65 0.8% 98.9%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 3% 93%  
70 4% 89%  
71 6% 85%  
72 7% 79%  
73 6% 72%  
74 7% 66%  
75 8% 58%  
76 7% 50% Median
77 7% 43%  
78 7% 36%  
79 6% 28%  
80 6% 22%  
81 4% 17%  
82 3% 12%  
83 3% 9%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.4% 4%  
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.3% 99.4%  
51 0.4% 99.1%  
52 2% 98.7%  
53 4% 97%  
54 4% 93%  
55 3% 89%  
56 3% 87%  
57 10% 84%  
58 11% 74%  
59 12% 63%  
60 5% 50% Median
61 4% 45%  
62 8% 41%  
63 12% 33%  
64 7% 20%  
65 2% 14%  
66 2% 12%  
67 3% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4% Last Result
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.3% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.4%  
73 0.5% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 5% 84%  
50 8% 79%  
51 8% 70%  
52 9% 62%  
53 10% 53% Median
54 10% 43%  
55 8% 33%  
56 5% 24%  
57 5% 19%  
58 4% 14%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.4% 4%  
62 1.0% 3%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.9% 99.4%  
41 0.8% 98.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 3% 93%  
45 4% 90%  
46 6% 87% Last Result
47 7% 80%  
48 8% 73%  
49 11% 65%  
50 10% 54% Median
51 11% 44%  
52 8% 33%  
53 9% 25%  
54 6% 17%  
55 4% 11%  
56 2% 7%  
57 2% 4%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 0.5% 2%  
60 0.4% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 511–529 508–532 506–534 501–538
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 450–470 447–472 445–475 439–479
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 419–440 416–443 414–445 409–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 408 100% 397–417 394–419 391–422 386–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 391 100% 382–403 379–405 376–407 372–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.7% 366–387 363–390 361–393 356–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 2% 329–350 325–352 323–354 319–361
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 318 0% 306–327 304–330 302–333 296–337
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 306–327 303–330 301–332 296–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 298–320 296–322 294–324 288–331
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 246–266 243–269 241–272 236–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 165–182 163–185 161–188 156–192
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 165 0% 157–175 155–177 153–180 149–184

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.9%  
499 0.1% 99.8%  
500 0.2% 99.7%  
501 0.2% 99.6%  
502 0.3% 99.4%  
503 0.3% 99.1%  
504 0.5% 98.8%  
505 0.6% 98%  
506 0.9% 98%  
507 0.8% 97%  
508 1.2% 96%  
509 2% 95%  
510 2% 93%  
511 3% 91%  
512 3% 89%  
513 3% 86%  
514 4% 83%  
515 4% 79%  
516 4% 75%  
517 4% 71%  
518 5% 66%  
519 7% 61%  
520 6% 54% Median
521 5% 49%  
522 5% 44%  
523 5% 38%  
524 5% 34%  
525 7% 29%  
526 4% 22%  
527 3% 19%  
528 4% 15%  
529 2% 12%  
530 2% 10%  
531 2% 8%  
532 1.4% 6%  
533 1.2% 4%  
534 1.0% 3%  
535 0.5% 2%  
536 0.4% 1.4%  
537 0.4% 1.0%  
538 0.1% 0.6%  
539 0.2% 0.5%  
540 0.1% 0.3%  
541 0.1% 0.2%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.8%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0.2% 99.6%  
440 0.2% 99.5%  
441 0.3% 99.3%  
442 0.4% 99.0%  
443 0.4% 98.6%  
444 0.6% 98%  
445 0.7% 98%  
446 0.9% 97%  
447 1.1% 96%  
448 1.5% 95%  
449 2% 93%  
450 2% 91%  
451 3% 90%  
452 3% 87%  
453 2% 84%  
454 4% 82%  
455 3% 78%  
456 5% 75%  
457 5% 70%  
458 5% 65%  
459 4% 60%  
460 6% 56% Median
461 5% 50%  
462 7% 45%  
463 6% 38%  
464 3% 33%  
465 5% 30%  
466 5% 25%  
467 3% 20%  
468 3% 17%  
469 3% 14%  
470 3% 11%  
471 2% 8%  
472 2% 6%  
473 1.4% 5%  
474 0.8% 3%  
475 0.7% 3%  
476 0.6% 2%  
477 0.4% 1.5%  
478 0.3% 1.0%  
479 0.2% 0.7%  
480 0.2% 0.5%  
481 0.1% 0.3%  
482 0.1% 0.2%  
483 0.1% 0.1%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.2% 99.5%  
410 0.2% 99.3%  
411 0.5% 99.1%  
412 0.3% 98.6%  
413 0.7% 98%  
414 0.8% 98%  
415 0.6% 97%  
416 2% 96%  
417 1.2% 95%  
418 2% 93%  
419 2% 91%  
420 2% 90%  
421 3% 87%  
422 3% 85%  
423 3% 82%  
424 5% 79%  
425 3% 74%  
426 6% 71%  
427 4% 65%  
428 5% 61%  
429 4% 55%  
430 4% 51% Median
431 7% 47%  
432 3% 39%  
433 5% 37%  
434 5% 32%  
435 3% 27%  
436 5% 23%  
437 3% 19%  
438 3% 16%  
439 3% 13%  
440 1.4% 10%  
441 2% 9%  
442 1.0% 6%  
443 1.3% 5%  
444 1.1% 4%  
445 0.5% 3%  
446 0.7% 2%  
447 0.5% 2%  
448 0.4% 1.3%  
449 0.4% 0.9%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.2% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0.1% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.8%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.2% 99.7%  
386 0.2% 99.5%  
387 0.2% 99.3%  
388 0.3% 99.0%  
389 0.7% 98.7%  
390 0.4% 98%  
391 0.6% 98%  
392 1.0% 97%  
393 0.9% 96%  
394 1.3% 95%  
395 2% 94%  
396 1.3% 92%  
397 2% 91%  
398 3% 89%  
399 2% 87%  
400 3% 84%  
401 3% 82%  
402 3% 79%  
403 5% 76%  
404 4% 71%  
405 3% 66%  
406 5% 63%  
407 6% 59% Median
408 6% 53%  
409 4% 46%  
410 8% 42%  
411 4% 35%  
412 3% 30%  
413 6% 27%  
414 5% 21%  
415 3% 17%  
416 3% 13%  
417 2% 10%  
418 2% 8%  
419 2% 7%  
420 1.1% 5%  
421 1.1% 4%  
422 0.6% 3%  
423 0.4% 2%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.4% 1.2%  
426 0.2% 0.8%  
427 0.2% 0.6%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.2% 99.6%  
373 0.3% 99.4%  
374 0.4% 99.1%  
375 0.6% 98.7%  
376 0.7% 98%  
377 1.1% 97%  
378 1.1% 96%  
379 1.0% 95%  
380 2% 94%  
381 2% 93%  
382 1.1% 91%  
383 2% 90%  
384 2% 88%  
385 3% 86%  
386 3% 84%  
387 4% 80%  
388 6% 76%  
389 7% 71%  
390 8% 63%  
391 5% 55%  
392 5% 50%  
393 4% 45% Median
394 4% 40%  
395 2% 36%  
396 2% 34%  
397 3% 32%  
398 3% 29%  
399 3% 26%  
400 4% 22%  
401 3% 19%  
402 3% 16%  
403 4% 12%  
404 2% 8%  
405 2% 6%  
406 1.1% 4%  
407 0.9% 3%  
408 0.7% 2%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.2% 1.2%  
411 0.2% 1.0%  
412 0.2% 0.8%  
413 0.2% 0.6%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.8%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.2% 99.6%  
357 0.3% 99.3%  
358 0.3% 99.1%  
359 0.5% 98.8%  
360 0.7% 98%  
361 0.8% 98%  
362 0.9% 97%  
363 1.2% 96%  
364 1.2% 95%  
365 2% 94%  
366 2% 91%  
367 2% 90%  
368 3% 88%  
369 3% 85%  
370 3% 82%  
371 4% 79%  
372 3% 75%  
373 5% 71%  
374 6% 67%  
375 6% 61%  
376 4% 55%  
377 5% 51% Median
378 3% 46%  
379 5% 42%  
380 6% 38%  
381 4% 32%  
382 4% 29%  
383 3% 24%  
384 3% 21%  
385 4% 18%  
386 3% 14%  
387 2% 11%  
388 2% 9%  
389 2% 7%  
390 1.2% 6%  
391 1.1% 5%  
392 0.9% 3%  
393 0.5% 3%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.4% 1.5%  
396 0.3% 1.0%  
397 0.2% 0.7%  
398 0.1% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0% 99.8%  
317 0.1% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.7%  
319 0.2% 99.5%  
320 0.3% 99.4%  
321 0.5% 99.1%  
322 0.6% 98.6%  
323 1.0% 98%  
324 1.3% 97%  
325 1.1% 96%  
326 2% 95%  
327 1.3% 93%  
328 1.3% 92%  
329 0.8% 91%  
330 1.1% 90%  
331 1.3% 89%  
332 2% 87%  
333 3% 85%  
334 3% 82%  
335 7% 79%  
336 4% 73%  
337 9% 69%  
338 5% 59%  
339 8% 54%  
340 5% 46% Last Result, Median
341 4% 42%  
342 4% 37%  
343 2% 34%  
344 3% 32%  
345 2% 29%  
346 5% 26%  
347 2% 22%  
348 5% 19%  
349 4% 15%  
350 3% 11%  
351 2% 8%  
352 2% 6%  
353 1.2% 4%  
354 0.5% 3%  
355 0.5% 2% Majority
356 0.2% 1.4%  
357 0.2% 1.2%  
358 0.1% 1.0%  
359 0.3% 0.9%  
360 0.1% 0.7%  
361 0.1% 0.5%  
362 0.1% 0.4%  
363 0.1% 0.3%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.4%  
298 0.2% 99.2%  
299 0.2% 99.0%  
300 0.3% 98.8%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 0.9% 98%  
303 1.1% 97%  
304 2% 96%  
305 2% 94%  
306 4% 92%  
307 3% 88%  
308 3% 84%  
309 4% 81%  
310 3% 78%  
311 3% 74%  
312 3% 71%  
313 2% 68%  
314 2% 66%  
315 4% 64%  
316 4% 60% Median
317 5% 55%  
318 5% 50%  
319 8% 45%  
320 7% 37%  
321 6% 29%  
322 4% 24%  
323 3% 20%  
324 3% 16%  
325 2% 14%  
326 2% 12%  
327 1.1% 10%  
328 2% 9%  
329 2% 7%  
330 1.0% 6%  
331 1.1% 5%  
332 1.1% 4%  
333 0.7% 3%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.3%  
336 0.3% 0.9%  
337 0.2% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.2% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.3%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 0.5% 98.8%  
300 0.6% 98%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 1.0% 97%  
303 2% 96%  
304 1.2% 95%  
305 2% 93%  
306 2% 92%  
307 2% 90%  
308 3% 88%  
309 3% 85%  
310 3% 81%  
311 4% 78%  
312 3% 74%  
313 5% 72%  
314 4% 67%  
315 5% 63%  
316 5% 58%  
317 7% 53% Median
318 5% 46%  
319 3% 40%  
320 4% 38%  
321 5% 33%  
322 5% 28%  
323 3% 23%  
324 4% 20%  
325 3% 16%  
326 2% 13% Last Result
327 2% 10%  
328 2% 9%  
329 2% 7%  
330 1.0% 5%  
331 1.0% 4%  
332 0.9% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.4%  
336 0.4% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.2% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.2% 99.7%  
289 0.3% 99.5%  
290 0.3% 99.2%  
291 0.4% 98.9%  
292 0.3% 98.5%  
293 0.4% 98%  
294 1.0% 98%  
295 1.2% 97%  
296 2% 96%  
297 2% 94%  
298 2% 92%  
299 2% 89%  
300 2% 88% Last Result
301 1.4% 86%  
302 2% 84%  
303 5% 82%  
304 5% 78%  
305 5% 73%  
306 7% 67%  
307 6% 61%  
308 4% 55%  
309 4% 51% Median
310 3% 47%  
311 4% 45%  
312 6% 41%  
313 5% 35%  
314 6% 30%  
315 4% 23%  
316 3% 19%  
317 2% 16%  
318 2% 14%  
319 1.4% 12%  
320 2% 11%  
321 2% 9%  
322 2% 6%  
323 1.4% 5%  
324 0.9% 3%  
325 0.6% 2%  
326 0.4% 2%  
327 0.3% 1.4%  
328 0.3% 1.2%  
329 0.2% 0.9%  
330 0.2% 0.7%  
331 0.2% 0.5%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0.1% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.2% 99.5%  
238 0.4% 99.3%  
239 0.5% 98.9%  
240 0.6% 98%  
241 1.0% 98%  
242 0.7% 97%  
243 1.2% 96%  
244 2% 95%  
245 2% 93%  
246 2% 91%  
247 2% 89%  
248 3% 87%  
249 3% 84%  
250 3% 81%  
251 4% 78%  
252 6% 73%  
253 3% 68%  
254 6% 64%  
255 4% 59%  
256 6% 55% Median
257 5% 49%  
258 5% 44%  
259 4% 39%  
260 6% 35%  
261 5% 30%  
262 3% 25%  
263 4% 22%  
264 4% 18%  
265 3% 14%  
266 3% 12%  
267 2% 9%  
268 1.5% 7%  
269 2% 6%  
270 1.0% 4%  
271 0.7% 3%  
272 0.7% 3%  
273 0.5% 2%  
274 0.4% 1.4%  
275 0.2% 1.0%  
276 0.3% 0.8%  
277 0.2% 0.6%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.2%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.2% 99.6%  
157 0.3% 99.4%  
158 0.3% 99.2%  
159 0.6% 98.9%  
160 0.6% 98%  
161 1.1% 98%  
162 1.4% 97%  
163 2% 95%  
164 2% 94%  
165 3% 91%  
166 3% 89%  
167 5% 85%  
168 4% 80%  
169 7% 76%  
170 5% 69%  
171 6% 64%  
172 8% 58%  
173 5% 50% Median
174 5% 45%  
175 7% 40%  
176 4% 32%  
177 5% 28%  
178 4% 24%  
179 4% 20%  
180 3% 16%  
181 2% 13%  
182 2% 11%  
183 2% 9%  
184 1.4% 8%  
185 1.3% 6%  
186 1.0% 5%  
187 0.8% 4%  
188 1.0% 3%  
189 0.6% 2%  
190 0.5% 2%  
191 0.3% 1.0%  
192 0.3% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
144 0% 100%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0.1% 99.9%  
147 0.1% 99.8%  
148 0.2% 99.7%  
149 0.2% 99.6%  
150 0.5% 99.4%  
151 0.3% 98.9%  
152 0.8% 98.6%  
153 0.9% 98%  
154 2% 97%  
155 1.2% 95%  
156 2% 94%  
157 2% 92%  
158 5% 90%  
159 2% 85%  
160 3% 82%  
161 7% 80%  
162 6% 73%  
163 5% 67%  
164 5% 62%  
165 10% 57%  
166 5% 48% Median
167 5% 42%  
168 4% 38%  
169 8% 34%  
170 3% 26%  
171 4% 23%  
172 3% 19%  
173 4% 16%  
174 2% 12%  
175 3% 10%  
176 2% 8%  
177 2% 6%  
178 0.8% 4%  
179 0.8% 3%  
180 0.7% 3%  
181 0.6% 2%  
182 0.3% 1.2%  
183 0.2% 1.0%  
184 0.3% 0.7%  
185 0.1% 0.4%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations