Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 30 October–2 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.0% 25.7–28.3% 25.4–28.6% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.6–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.5% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.5% 7.7–9.4% 7.5–9.6% 7.4–9.8% 7.0–10.2%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.6% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.8–7.2% 5.6–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 204 194–214 191–216 189–218 186–221
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 136 128–144 126–146 124–148 120–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 109–124 107–127 105–129 102–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 77–90 75–92 73–93 70–97
Die Linke 69 64 59–70 57–72 56–74 53–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 57 51–63 50–64 49–66 46–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 49 44–54 43–56 42–58 40–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.9%  
184 0.1% 99.8%  
185 0.1% 99.7%  
186 0.4% 99.6%  
187 0.6% 99.2%  
188 0.6% 98.7%  
189 0.9% 98%  
190 2% 97%  
191 2% 96%  
192 1.4% 93%  
193 2% 92%  
194 3% 90%  
195 3% 88%  
196 2% 85%  
197 2% 83%  
198 2% 81%  
199 2% 78%  
200 4% 77% Last Result
201 5% 73%  
202 5% 67%  
203 6% 62%  
204 10% 56% Median
205 9% 46%  
206 5% 37%  
207 5% 31%  
208 6% 26%  
209 5% 20%  
210 1.2% 15%  
211 1.0% 14%  
212 0.9% 13%  
213 1.1% 12%  
214 2% 11%  
215 3% 9%  
216 1.1% 6%  
217 0.9% 5%  
218 2% 4%  
219 0.7% 2%  
220 0.5% 1.2%  
221 0.3% 0.7%  
222 0.2% 0.4%  
223 0.1% 0.3%  
224 0% 0.2%  
225 0% 0.1%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0.1%  
230 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.7%  
120 0.3% 99.5%  
121 0.4% 99.3%  
122 0.6% 98.9%  
123 0.7% 98%  
124 1.0% 98%  
125 1.3% 97%  
126 2% 95%  
127 3% 94%  
128 3% 91%  
129 4% 88%  
130 4% 84%  
131 5% 80%  
132 6% 76%  
133 7% 70%  
134 6% 63%  
135 5% 57%  
136 6% 52% Median
137 7% 46%  
138 6% 39%  
139 6% 33%  
140 4% 27%  
141 4% 23%  
142 4% 20%  
143 4% 15%  
144 3% 11%  
145 2% 9%  
146 2% 6%  
147 1.3% 5%  
148 1.4% 3%  
149 0.6% 2%  
150 0.5% 2%  
151 0.3% 1.0%  
152 0.2% 0.7%  
153 0.2% 0.5%  
154 0.1% 0.3%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.5% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 1.0% 98%  
106 1.4% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 2% 94%  
109 3% 91%  
110 4% 88%  
111 4% 84%  
112 6% 80%  
113 6% 74%  
114 7% 68%  
115 7% 61%  
116 7% 54% Median
117 6% 47%  
118 6% 41%  
119 5% 35%  
120 5% 30%  
121 5% 25%  
122 4% 20%  
123 3% 16%  
124 3% 12%  
125 3% 9%  
126 2% 7%  
127 2% 5%  
128 0.9% 3%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.6% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.2%  
132 0.3% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 99.0%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 4% 90%  
78 6% 86%  
79 5% 80%  
80 6% 75%  
81 9% 69%  
82 9% 60%  
83 7% 52% Median
84 7% 45%  
85 7% 38%  
86 6% 30%  
87 5% 24%  
88 4% 19%  
89 4% 15%  
90 3% 11%  
91 2% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.3% 4%  
94 0.9% 2% Last Result
95 0.5% 2%  
96 0.4% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.5% 99.3%  
55 1.1% 98.8%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 4% 94%  
59 5% 90%  
60 5% 86%  
61 7% 80%  
62 8% 73%  
63 8% 66%  
64 9% 58% Median
65 8% 48%  
66 8% 40%  
67 7% 32%  
68 7% 25%  
69 4% 18% Last Result
70 4% 14%  
71 3% 10%  
72 2% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 1.2% 3%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.0%  
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
47 0.7% 99.3%  
48 1.1% 98.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 4% 93%  
52 5% 89%  
53 6% 84%  
54 7% 78%  
55 8% 70%  
56 10% 62%  
57 9% 52% Median
58 8% 44%  
59 8% 35%  
60 6% 27%  
61 6% 21%  
62 4% 15%  
63 4% 11%  
64 2% 7%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.5% 1.1%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.5%  
41 0.8% 99.0%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 7% 93%  
45 7% 86%  
46 9% 79%  
47 8% 69%  
48 11% 62%  
49 11% 51% Median
50 12% 40%  
51 6% 29%  
52 6% 23%  
53 4% 17%  
54 4% 13%  
55 3% 9%  
56 2% 7%  
57 1.2% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 2%  
60 0.6% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 512 100% 503–522 501–524 499–527 493–531
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 445 100% 435–455 432–458 430–460 424–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 426 100% 416–436 413–438 410–441 405–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 397 100% 385–405 382–408 379–411 374–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 392 100% 382–402 379–406 377–408 371–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.7% 367–387 364–390 361–393 356–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 344 9% 333–354 330–357 328–360 322–364
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 307–327 303–330 301–332 296–338
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 309 0% 299–319 296–322 294–325 288–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 301 0% 291–311 288–314 286–317 281–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 251 0% 243–263 239–265 237–267 233–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 172–190 169–193 167–195 163–199
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 164 0% 158–176 157–178 155–180 147–183

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 99.9%  
490 0% 99.9%  
491 0.1% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.8%  
493 0.2% 99.7%  
494 0.3% 99.5%  
495 0.5% 99.2%  
496 0.4% 98.7%  
497 0.4% 98%  
498 0.4% 98%  
499 0.9% 98%  
500 1.1% 97%  
501 2% 96%  
502 2% 94%  
503 3% 92%  
504 2% 89%  
505 3% 86%  
506 2% 84%  
507 3% 82%  
508 3% 79%  
509 4% 76%  
510 6% 72%  
511 8% 66%  
512 8% 57%  
513 6% 49% Median
514 5% 43%  
515 3% 37%  
516 3% 34%  
517 3% 31%  
518 4% 28%  
519 5% 24%  
520 4% 20%  
521 5% 15%  
522 3% 11%  
523 2% 8%  
524 1.4% 6%  
525 1.1% 4%  
526 0.7% 3%  
527 0.5% 3%  
528 0.6% 2%  
529 0.5% 2%  
530 0.3% 1.0%  
531 0.3% 0.7%  
532 0.1% 0.4%  
533 0.1% 0.3%  
534 0% 0.2%  
535 0% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.2%  
537 0% 0.2%  
538 0% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0.1%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.2% 99.7%  
425 0.2% 99.5%  
426 0.3% 99.3%  
427 0.3% 99.0%  
428 0.4% 98.7%  
429 0.8% 98%  
430 0.9% 98%  
431 0.9% 97%  
432 1.3% 96%  
433 2% 94%  
434 2% 93%  
435 2% 91%  
436 2% 89%  
437 3% 86%  
438 2% 83%  
439 4% 81%  
440 3% 77%  
441 4% 73%  
442 5% 70%  
443 4% 64%  
444 6% 60%  
445 4% 54%  
446 6% 50% Median
447 5% 43%  
448 5% 39%  
449 4% 34%  
450 5% 30%  
451 4% 25%  
452 4% 21%  
453 3% 17%  
454 3% 14%  
455 3% 11%  
456 2% 8%  
457 2% 7%  
458 1.1% 5%  
459 1.0% 4%  
460 0.7% 3%  
461 0.6% 2%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.4% 1.2%  
464 0.2% 0.8%  
465 0.3% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.3%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.8%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.2% 99.6%  
406 0.2% 99.4%  
407 0.3% 99.2%  
408 0.5% 98.9%  
409 0.7% 98%  
410 0.5% 98%  
411 0.9% 97%  
412 1.2% 96%  
413 1.2% 95%  
414 1.3% 94%  
415 1.3% 93%  
416 2% 91%  
417 2% 89%  
418 3% 87%  
419 3% 84%  
420 5% 81%  
421 5% 76%  
422 4% 71%  
423 6% 67%  
424 5% 61%  
425 5% 56%  
426 5% 51% Median
427 5% 46%  
428 5% 41%  
429 5% 35%  
430 4% 30%  
431 4% 26%  
432 3% 22%  
433 3% 19%  
434 3% 16%  
435 2% 13%  
436 2% 11%  
437 2% 9%  
438 1.3% 6%  
439 1.2% 5%  
440 0.9% 4%  
441 0.6% 3%  
442 0.6% 2%  
443 0.5% 2%  
444 0.3% 1.2%  
445 0.3% 0.9%  
446 0.2% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.2% 99.7%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0.2% 99.3%  
377 0.4% 99.1%  
378 0.5% 98.7%  
379 0.7% 98%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 1.0% 97%  
382 1.1% 96%  
383 1.3% 95%  
384 2% 93%  
385 2% 92%  
386 2% 90%  
387 2% 88%  
388 2% 86%  
389 3% 83%  
390 3% 81%  
391 3% 78%  
392 3% 75%  
393 4% 72%  
394 4% 68%  
395 4% 64%  
396 7% 60%  
397 5% 53% Median
398 6% 49%  
399 6% 42%  
400 5% 36%  
401 5% 31%  
402 4% 26%  
403 6% 22%  
404 3% 16%  
405 4% 14%  
406 2% 10%  
407 2% 8%  
408 1.3% 6%  
409 1.0% 5%  
410 0.9% 4%  
411 0.7% 3%  
412 0.5% 2%  
413 0.4% 1.5%  
414 0.3% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.8%  
416 0.1% 0.6%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.3%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.2% 99.6%  
372 0.2% 99.4%  
373 0.3% 99.3%  
374 0.3% 98.9%  
375 0.6% 98.6%  
376 0.5% 98%  
377 1.0% 98%  
378 0.7% 97%  
379 2% 96%  
380 1.4% 94%  
381 2% 93%  
382 3% 91%  
383 2% 88%  
384 3% 86%  
385 3% 83%  
386 4% 80%  
387 4% 76%  
388 4% 72%  
389 4% 68%  
390 5% 64%  
391 4% 60%  
392 6% 55%  
393 4% 49% Median
394 5% 45%  
395 4% 40%  
396 7% 37%  
397 3% 30%  
398 4% 26%  
399 2% 22%  
400 5% 20%  
401 2% 15%  
402 3% 12%  
403 1.1% 10%  
404 3% 9%  
405 0.9% 6%  
406 2% 5%  
407 0.7% 4%  
408 0.9% 3%  
409 0.5% 2%  
410 0.4% 1.5%  
411 0.3% 1.1%  
412 0.3% 0.8%  
413 0.2% 0.6%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.2% 99.4%  
358 0.4% 99.2%  
359 0.4% 98.8%  
360 0.5% 98%  
361 0.9% 98%  
362 0.9% 97%  
363 0.8% 96%  
364 1.3% 95%  
365 2% 94%  
366 2% 92%  
367 2% 90%  
368 3% 88%  
369 3% 86%  
370 3% 83%  
371 3% 80%  
372 5% 77%  
373 5% 72%  
374 5% 67%  
375 5% 63%  
376 4% 58%  
377 6% 54% Median
378 6% 48%  
379 5% 42%  
380 4% 36%  
381 5% 33%  
382 3% 28%  
383 4% 25%  
384 4% 21%  
385 3% 17%  
386 3% 14%  
387 2% 11%  
388 2% 9%  
389 1.4% 7%  
390 1.1% 6%  
391 1.3% 5%  
392 0.8% 3%  
393 0.5% 3%  
394 0.5% 2%  
395 0.4% 2%  
396 0.4% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 0.9%  
398 0.1% 0.6%  
399 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
400 0.1% 0.3%  
401 0.1% 0.3%  
402 0% 0.2%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.2% 99.7%  
323 0.2% 99.5%  
324 0.2% 99.3%  
325 0.3% 99.1%  
326 0.5% 98.7%  
327 0.6% 98%  
328 0.5% 98%  
329 1.0% 97%  
330 1.3% 96%  
331 1.3% 95%  
332 2% 93%  
333 2% 91%  
334 3% 89%  
335 2% 86%  
336 3% 84%  
337 4% 81%  
338 4% 76%  
339 3% 73%  
340 5% 69% Last Result
341 5% 64%  
342 4% 59%  
343 5% 55%  
344 4% 50% Median
345 5% 46%  
346 5% 41%  
347 4% 37%  
348 5% 32%  
349 4% 27%  
350 4% 23%  
351 3% 19%  
352 3% 17%  
353 3% 14%  
354 3% 11%  
355 1.4% 9% Majority
356 2% 7%  
357 0.9% 5%  
358 1.1% 4%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.8% 3%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.3% 1.3%  
363 0.3% 1.0%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.3% 99.4%  
298 0.3% 99.2%  
299 0.4% 98.9%  
300 0.5% 98.5%  
301 0.9% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 2% 96%  
304 0.9% 95%  
305 3% 94%  
306 1.1% 91%  
307 3% 90%  
308 2% 88%  
309 5% 85%  
310 2% 80%  
311 4% 78%  
312 3% 74%  
313 7% 70%  
314 4% 63%  
315 5% 60%  
316 4% 55% Median
317 6% 51%  
318 4% 45%  
319 5% 40%  
320 4% 36%  
321 4% 32%  
322 4% 28%  
323 4% 24%  
324 3% 20%  
325 3% 17%  
326 2% 14%  
327 3% 12%  
328 2% 9%  
329 1.4% 7%  
330 2% 6%  
331 0.7% 4%  
332 1.0% 3%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.6% 2%  
335 0.3% 1.4%  
336 0.3% 1.1%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.2% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.3%  
341 0.1% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.2% 99.6%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 0.4% 99.3%  
291 0.4% 98.9%  
292 0.5% 98.5%  
293 0.5% 98%  
294 0.8% 98%  
295 0.9% 97%  
296 1.3% 96%  
297 2% 94%  
298 2% 93%  
299 2% 91%  
300 3% 89%  
301 3% 86%  
302 4% 83%  
303 2% 79%  
304 2% 77%  
305 4% 74%  
306 5% 70%  
307 5% 65%  
308 6% 60%  
309 5% 54%  
310 5% 50% Median
311 5% 44%  
312 5% 40%  
313 5% 34%  
314 3% 29%  
315 4% 26%  
316 3% 22%  
317 3% 19%  
318 3% 16%  
319 4% 13%  
320 2% 9%  
321 2% 7%  
322 1.4% 6%  
323 0.9% 4%  
324 0.8% 4%  
325 0.6% 3%  
326 0.6% 2% Last Result
327 0.5% 2%  
328 0.3% 1.1%  
329 0.2% 0.8%  
330 0.2% 0.6%  
331 0.1% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.2% 99.5%  
282 0.3% 99.3%  
283 0.3% 99.1%  
284 0.5% 98.7%  
285 0.7% 98%  
286 0.7% 98%  
287 1.0% 97%  
288 1.3% 96%  
289 1.4% 95%  
290 2% 93%  
291 2% 91%  
292 3% 89%  
293 3% 86%  
294 4% 83%  
295 4% 79%  
296 4% 75%  
297 7% 71%  
298 4% 64%  
299 4% 60%  
300 5% 55% Last Result
301 4% 51% Median
302 4% 46%  
303 5% 42%  
304 3% 37%  
305 4% 34%  
306 5% 31%  
307 3% 26%  
308 4% 22%  
309 3% 19%  
310 3% 15%  
311 2% 12%  
312 3% 10%  
313 2% 7%  
314 1.4% 6%  
315 1.1% 4%  
316 0.7% 3%  
317 0.7% 3%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.3%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.9%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.2% 99.7%  
233 0.3% 99.6%  
234 0.4% 99.3%  
235 0.6% 98.8%  
236 0.7% 98%  
237 0.8% 98%  
238 0.8% 97%  
239 1.1% 96%  
240 1.1% 95%  
241 1.5% 94%  
242 1.4% 92%  
243 2% 91%  
244 3% 89%  
245 4% 86%  
246 5% 83%  
247 5% 78%  
248 6% 73%  
249 7% 67%  
250 5% 60%  
251 6% 55%  
252 5% 49% Median
253 4% 45%  
254 4% 41%  
255 3% 37%  
256 3% 34%  
257 3% 31%  
258 4% 28%  
259 3% 24%  
260 3% 21%  
261 4% 17%  
262 3% 14%  
263 3% 10%  
264 2% 7%  
265 2% 5%  
266 1.0% 4%  
267 0.7% 3%  
268 0.4% 2%  
269 0.4% 2%  
270 0.3% 1.3%  
271 0.3% 1.0%  
272 0.2% 0.7%  
273 0.2% 0.6%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0.1% 0.2%  
277 0.1% 0.1%  
278 0% 0.1%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
158 0% 100%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.2% 99.7%  
164 0.3% 99.4%  
165 0.6% 99.2%  
166 0.5% 98.6%  
167 0.9% 98%  
168 1.0% 97%  
169 1.3% 96%  
170 2% 95%  
171 2% 93%  
172 3% 91%  
173 2% 88%  
174 4% 86%  
175 4% 81%  
176 6% 78%  
177 4% 72%  
178 4% 68%  
179 7% 64%  
180 6% 57% Median
181 8% 52%  
182 3% 44%  
183 5% 41%  
184 6% 36%  
185 5% 30%  
186 5% 25%  
187 2% 20%  
188 3% 18%  
189 4% 15%  
190 3% 11%  
191 2% 8%  
192 1.0% 6%  
193 1.2% 5%  
194 1.2% 4%  
195 0.9% 3%  
196 0.6% 2%  
197 0.3% 1.4%  
198 0.4% 1.1%  
199 0.3% 0.7%  
200 0.2% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0.1% 0.2%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0% 99.9%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.9%  
130 0% 99.9%  
131 0% 99.9%  
132 0% 99.9%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0% 99.9%  
138 0% 99.9%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.8%  
144 0% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.7%  
147 0.1% 99.6%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.2% 99.3%  
150 0.2% 99.1%  
151 0.2% 98.9%  
152 0.2% 98.8%  
153 0.4% 98.5%  
154 0.5% 98%  
155 1.2% 98%  
156 1.3% 96%  
157 2% 95%  
158 4% 93%  
159 5% 89%  
160 6% 84%  
161 8% 78%  
162 8% 70%  
163 7% 62%  
164 10% 55%  
165 6% 45% Median
166 6% 39%  
167 5% 33%  
168 4% 28%  
169 3% 24%  
170 2% 21%  
171 2% 19%  
172 1.3% 18%  
173 2% 16%  
174 2% 14%  
175 2% 13%  
176 2% 11%  
177 2% 9%  
178 2% 7%  
179 1.5% 5%  
180 1.1% 3%  
181 0.9% 2%  
182 0.6% 1.4%  
183 0.3% 0.8%  
184 0.2% 0.5%  
185 0.1% 0.3%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0.1%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations