Opinion Poll by Kantar, 29 October–4 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 27.7–30.8% 27.3–31.3% 26.9–31.7% 26.2–32.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.4% 16.4–19.8% 16.1–20.1% 15.5–20.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.4–17.6% 14.1–18.0% 13.6–18.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.5–8.2% 5.2–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 209–232 206–235 203–238 198–244
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 136 126–146 124–148 121–151 117–156
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 120 111–130 109–132 106–135 102–140
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 61–75 59–78 57–80 54–83
Die Linke 69 60 53–68 52–70 50–71 47–75
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 46–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–57 43–59 41–61 39–65

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.6%  
198 0.2% 99.5%  
199 0.2% 99.3%  
200 0.4% 99.1% Last Result
201 0.3% 98.6%  
202 0.5% 98%  
203 0.8% 98%  
204 0.8% 97%  
205 0.9% 96%  
206 1.3% 95%  
207 2% 94%  
208 2% 92%  
209 2% 90%  
210 3% 88%  
211 3% 86%  
212 4% 83%  
213 3% 79%  
214 3% 76%  
215 4% 73%  
216 4% 69%  
217 4% 65%  
218 4% 61%  
219 5% 56%  
220 3% 52% Median
221 5% 48%  
222 5% 44%  
223 4% 39%  
224 4% 35%  
225 4% 31%  
226 3% 27%  
227 3% 24%  
228 3% 21%  
229 2% 18%  
230 2% 16%  
231 3% 13%  
232 2% 11%  
233 1.5% 9%  
234 2% 7%  
235 1.2% 6%  
236 0.9% 5%  
237 0.9% 4%  
238 0.6% 3%  
239 0.7% 2%  
240 0.3% 2%  
241 0.4% 1.3%  
242 0.2% 0.9%  
243 0.2% 0.7%  
244 0.1% 0.5%  
245 0.1% 0.4%  
246 0.1% 0.3%  
247 0.1% 0.2%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.1% 99.7%  
117 0.3% 99.6%  
118 0.3% 99.3%  
119 0.4% 99.0%  
120 0.6% 98.7%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 1.1% 97%  
123 1.0% 96%  
124 2% 95%  
125 2% 94%  
126 2% 91%  
127 4% 89%  
128 3% 86%  
129 4% 83%  
130 4% 79%  
131 3% 75%  
132 5% 71%  
133 5% 66%  
134 5% 62%  
135 4% 56%  
136 6% 52% Median
137 4% 46%  
138 6% 42%  
139 4% 37%  
140 5% 32%  
141 4% 28%  
142 4% 23%  
143 3% 19%  
144 3% 16%  
145 2% 13%  
146 2% 11%  
147 2% 9%  
148 2% 7%  
149 0.9% 5%  
150 1.2% 4%  
151 0.5% 3%  
152 0.7% 2%  
153 0.3% 2%  
154 0.3% 1.2%  
155 0.3% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.6%  
103 0.3% 99.5%  
104 0.5% 99.2%  
105 0.4% 98.7%  
106 1.0% 98%  
107 0.9% 97%  
108 1.1% 96%  
109 1.5% 95%  
110 2% 94%  
111 3% 92%  
112 3% 89%  
113 4% 86%  
114 3% 82%  
115 3% 79%  
116 4% 76%  
117 4% 71%  
118 8% 67%  
119 6% 59%  
120 5% 54% Median
121 5% 49%  
122 4% 44%  
123 5% 40%  
124 4% 34%  
125 6% 30%  
126 4% 24%  
127 4% 20%  
128 2% 16%  
129 2% 14%  
130 3% 12%  
131 2% 9%  
132 2% 7%  
133 0.9% 5%  
134 0.8% 4%  
135 0.6% 3%  
136 0.7% 2%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.3% 1.1%  
139 0.3% 0.8%  
140 0.1% 0.5%  
141 0.1% 0.4%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0.1% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.3% 99.6%  
55 0.5% 99.4%  
56 0.8% 98.9%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 2% 95%  
60 3% 93%  
61 3% 91%  
62 4% 87%  
63 5% 83%  
64 5% 78%  
65 8% 73%  
66 6% 65%  
67 7% 59%  
68 6% 52% Median
69 7% 46%  
70 6% 39%  
71 7% 33%  
72 5% 26%  
73 5% 21%  
74 3% 16%  
75 3% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 2% 7%  
78 1.5% 5%  
79 1.1% 4%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 0.7% 99.0%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 1.4% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 4% 94%  
54 3% 90%  
55 3% 86%  
56 6% 83%  
57 8% 78%  
58 5% 69%  
59 6% 64%  
60 9% 58% Median
61 8% 48%  
62 5% 41%  
63 6% 36%  
64 7% 29%  
65 5% 22%  
66 3% 17%  
67 4% 14%  
68 3% 10%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 0% 99.9%  
9 0% 99.9%  
10 0% 99.9%  
11 0% 99.9%  
12 0% 99.9%  
13 0% 99.9%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0% 99.9%  
16 0% 99.9%  
17 0% 99.9%  
18 0% 99.9%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0% 99.9%  
21 0% 99.9%  
22 0% 99.9%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0% 99.9%  
25 0% 99.9%  
26 0% 99.9%  
27 0% 99.9%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 0% 99.9%  
31 0% 99.9%  
32 0% 99.9%  
33 0% 99.9%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0% 99.9%  
38 0% 99.9%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.3%  
43 1.1% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 3% 96%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 5% 86%  
49 5% 81%  
50 6% 76%  
51 7% 70%  
52 8% 63%  
53 9% 55% Median
54 9% 46%  
55 8% 37%  
56 7% 30%  
57 5% 23%  
58 4% 18%  
59 3% 14%  
60 3% 11%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.1% 4%  
64 1.2% 3%  
65 0.6% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.0%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.6%  
40 0.7% 99.3%  
41 1.3% 98.5%  
42 2% 97%  
43 2% 96%  
44 3% 94%  
45 4% 91%  
46 5% 86% Last Result
47 6% 81%  
48 7% 75%  
49 8% 68%  
50 8% 60%  
51 8% 52% Median
52 8% 44%  
53 6% 36%  
54 6% 30%  
55 6% 24%  
56 5% 18%  
57 4% 14%  
58 3% 10%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.0% 3%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.0%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 527 100% 517–539 513–541 511–544 505–549
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 448–472 445–475 441–479 436–484
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 444 100% 432–457 429–460 426–463 420–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 395–420 391–423 388–426 382–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 380–405 376–408 374–411 367–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 391 100% 379–404 375–407 373–410 367–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 6% 326–351 323–355 320–358 314–364
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0.1% 312–337 309–340 305–343 299–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 304–329 301–333 298–335 292–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 310 0% 297–322 293–326 291–328 284–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 244–269 241–272 238–275 233–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 170–192 167–195 164–198 160–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 174 0% 163–185 159–187 158–190 153–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 99.9%  
501 0% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.8%  
504 0.1% 99.7%  
505 0.1% 99.6%  
506 0.3% 99.5%  
507 0.4% 99.2%  
508 0.1% 98.8%  
509 0.4% 98.7%  
510 0.6% 98%  
511 0.6% 98%  
512 1.1% 97%  
513 1.2% 96%  
514 1.4% 95%  
515 1.4% 93%  
516 2% 92%  
517 2% 90%  
518 1.4% 88%  
519 4% 87%  
520 4% 83%  
521 3% 79%  
522 4% 76%  
523 4% 72%  
524 6% 69%  
525 3% 63%  
526 6% 60%  
527 6% 54% Median
528 3% 48%  
529 5% 45%  
530 3% 41%  
531 5% 37%  
532 4% 32%  
533 4% 28%  
534 3% 23%  
535 2% 20%  
536 4% 18%  
537 3% 14%  
538 1.2% 11%  
539 2% 10%  
540 2% 8%  
541 1.1% 6%  
542 0.7% 5%  
543 1.1% 4%  
544 0.9% 3%  
545 0.5% 2%  
546 0.6% 2%  
547 0.4% 1.1%  
548 0.2% 0.8%  
549 0.2% 0.6%  
550 0.1% 0.4%  
551 0.1% 0.3%  
552 0.1% 0.2%  
553 0% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.2% 99.7%  
436 0.2% 99.5%  
437 0.1% 99.4%  
438 0.2% 99.2%  
439 0.3% 99.1%  
440 0.6% 98.7%  
441 0.6% 98%  
442 0.6% 97%  
443 0.6% 97%  
444 0.8% 96%  
445 0.7% 96%  
446 2% 95%  
447 2% 93%  
448 3% 91%  
449 2% 88%  
450 1.2% 86%  
451 1.5% 85%  
452 4% 84%  
453 4% 80%  
454 5% 76%  
455 3% 71%  
456 4% 68%  
457 2% 64%  
458 4% 62%  
459 4% 58%  
460 7% 54% Median
461 5% 47%  
462 4% 42%  
463 2% 39%  
464 4% 36%  
465 4% 33%  
466 5% 29%  
467 3% 24%  
468 4% 21%  
469 2% 17%  
470 2% 15%  
471 2% 13%  
472 3% 11%  
473 2% 9%  
474 2% 7%  
475 0.8% 5%  
476 0.6% 5%  
477 0.6% 4%  
478 0.8% 3%  
479 1.0% 3%  
480 0.4% 2%  
481 0.3% 1.2%  
482 0.1% 0.8%  
483 0.1% 0.7%  
484 0.1% 0.6%  
485 0.1% 0.4%  
486 0.1% 0.3%  
487 0.1% 0.2%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.1% 99.6%  
421 0.2% 99.5%  
422 0.2% 99.3%  
423 0.3% 99.2%  
424 0.4% 98.8%  
425 0.6% 98%  
426 0.7% 98%  
427 0.9% 97%  
428 0.8% 96%  
429 2% 95%  
430 0.9% 94%  
431 1.2% 93%  
432 2% 92%  
433 1.3% 89%  
434 1.4% 88%  
435 2% 87%  
436 3% 84%  
437 2% 81%  
438 3% 79%  
439 5% 76%  
440 4% 71%  
441 5% 68%  
442 7% 63%  
443 3% 56%  
444 5% 53% Median
445 4% 48%  
446 4% 44%  
447 3% 40%  
448 3% 37%  
449 3% 34%  
450 3% 31%  
451 3% 28%  
452 3% 25%  
453 3% 22%  
454 2% 19%  
455 4% 16%  
456 2% 13%  
457 2% 11%  
458 3% 8%  
459 0.8% 6%  
460 0.9% 5%  
461 0.9% 4%  
462 0.5% 3%  
463 0.6% 3%  
464 0.5% 2%  
465 0.4% 2%  
466 0.3% 1.4%  
467 0.3% 1.0%  
468 0.2% 0.8%  
469 0.1% 0.5%  
470 0.2% 0.4%  
471 0.1% 0.3%  
472 0% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.1% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.5%  
384 0.2% 99.3%  
385 0.4% 99.0%  
386 0.3% 98.6%  
387 0.4% 98%  
388 0.5% 98%  
389 0.6% 97%  
390 1.0% 97%  
391 1.1% 96%  
392 1.0% 95%  
393 2% 94%  
394 1.0% 92%  
395 2% 91%  
396 2% 89%  
397 2% 87%  
398 3% 84%  
399 2% 81%  
400 3% 79%  
401 4% 76%  
402 4% 71%  
403 3% 67%  
404 5% 65%  
405 4% 60%  
406 5% 56%  
407 4% 51% Median
408 4% 47%  
409 4% 43%  
410 4% 39%  
411 4% 35%  
412 3% 32%  
413 5% 29%  
414 2% 24%  
415 3% 22%  
416 3% 19%  
417 2% 16%  
418 2% 14%  
419 2% 12%  
420 2% 10%  
421 2% 8%  
422 0.9% 7%  
423 1.0% 6%  
424 1.3% 5%  
425 0.6% 3%  
426 0.4% 3%  
427 0.8% 2%  
428 0.4% 2%  
429 0.4% 1.3%  
430 0.1% 0.9%  
431 0.2% 0.7%  
432 0.2% 0.6%  
433 0.1% 0.4%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.5%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.3% 99.2%  
370 0.2% 98.9%  
371 0.3% 98.7%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 0.8% 98%  
375 0.9% 97%  
376 1.4% 96%  
377 2% 94%  
378 2% 93%  
379 1.0% 91%  
380 2% 90%  
381 2% 88%  
382 2% 87%  
383 2% 84%  
384 3% 82%  
385 4% 79%  
386 4% 76%  
387 3% 72%  
388 7% 68%  
389 3% 62%  
390 3% 58%  
391 4% 56%  
392 3% 52% Median
393 3% 49%  
394 3% 45%  
395 5% 42%  
396 4% 38%  
397 5% 34%  
398 4% 29%  
399 3% 24%  
400 3% 21%  
401 2% 18%  
402 2% 16%  
403 2% 14%  
404 2% 13%  
405 2% 10%  
406 1.2% 9%  
407 2% 7%  
408 1.1% 6%  
409 1.1% 5%  
410 0.8% 3%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.6% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.3%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.2% 0.8%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.1% 99.5%  
369 0.3% 99.3%  
370 0.3% 99.0%  
371 0.3% 98.7%  
372 0.8% 98%  
373 0.7% 98%  
374 1.3% 97%  
375 0.9% 96%  
376 1.0% 95%  
377 2% 94%  
378 1.3% 92%  
379 2% 91%  
380 2% 89%  
381 2% 87%  
382 2% 85%  
383 3% 84%  
384 2% 81%  
385 5% 79%  
386 4% 74%  
387 4% 70%  
388 5% 66%  
389 5% 61%  
390 5% 57%  
391 4% 52% Median
392 4% 48%  
393 3% 44%  
394 4% 41%  
395 3% 37%  
396 2% 34%  
397 4% 32%  
398 3% 29%  
399 2% 25% Last Result
400 4% 23%  
401 2% 19%  
402 4% 17%  
403 3% 13%  
404 2% 11%  
405 1.1% 8%  
406 2% 7%  
407 0.6% 5%  
408 0.9% 5%  
409 0.7% 4%  
410 0.7% 3%  
411 0.3% 2%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.4% 1.5%  
415 0.4% 1.1%  
416 0.2% 0.7%  
417 0.2% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.2% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.1% 99.4%  
316 0.2% 99.3%  
317 0.4% 99.1%  
318 0.4% 98.7%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.6% 98%  
321 1.0% 97%  
322 0.8% 96%  
323 0.6% 95%  
324 1.4% 95%  
325 2% 93%  
326 2% 91%  
327 1.0% 90%  
328 2% 89%  
329 4% 87%  
330 3% 83%  
331 2% 80%  
332 3% 78%  
333 3% 75%  
334 5% 72%  
335 3% 67%  
336 3% 64%  
337 5% 61%  
338 5% 56%  
339 3% 51% Median
340 2% 48% Last Result
341 6% 46%  
342 4% 40%  
343 3% 35%  
344 4% 32%  
345 3% 29%  
346 4% 26%  
347 3% 21%  
348 1.3% 18%  
349 3% 17%  
350 3% 15%  
351 2% 12%  
352 1.2% 10%  
353 1.4% 9%  
354 2% 7%  
355 1.3% 6% Majority
356 0.5% 4%  
357 0.8% 4%  
358 0.8% 3%  
359 0.7% 2%  
360 0.2% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.4%  
362 0.3% 1.1%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.1% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.1% 99.4%  
301 0.3% 99.3%  
302 0.2% 99.0%  
303 0.4% 98.8%  
304 0.6% 98%  
305 0.4% 98%  
306 0.8% 97%  
307 0.9% 97%  
308 0.7% 96%  
309 1.3% 95%  
310 1.4% 94%  
311 2% 92%  
312 2% 90%  
313 2% 88%  
314 2% 86%  
315 2% 84%  
316 3% 82%  
317 5% 79%  
318 3% 74%  
319 5% 72%  
320 2% 67%  
321 4% 65%  
322 3% 60%  
323 5% 58%  
324 6% 53% Median
325 4% 47%  
326 4% 43% Last Result
327 3% 39%  
328 3% 36%  
329 4% 33%  
330 4% 30%  
331 4% 26%  
332 3% 22%  
333 2% 19%  
334 2% 17%  
335 3% 15%  
336 2% 12%  
337 1.3% 10%  
338 2% 9%  
339 1.2% 7%  
340 0.8% 6%  
341 0.9% 5%  
342 0.8% 4%  
343 0.9% 3%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.3% 1.4%  
347 0.2% 1.1%  
348 0.3% 0.9%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.2% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.2%  
295 0.3% 99.0%  
296 0.3% 98.7%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.8% 97%  
300 1.1% 97%  
301 1.1% 95%  
302 2% 94%  
303 1.2% 93%  
304 2% 91%  
305 2% 90%  
306 2% 87%  
307 2% 86%  
308 2% 84%  
309 3% 82%  
310 3% 79%  
311 4% 76%  
312 5% 71%  
313 4% 66%  
314 5% 62%  
315 3% 58%  
316 3% 55% Median
317 3% 51%  
318 4% 48%  
319 3% 44%  
320 3% 42%  
321 7% 38%  
322 3% 32%  
323 4% 28%  
324 4% 24%  
325 3% 21%  
326 2% 18%  
327 2% 16%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 12%  
330 1.0% 10%  
331 2% 9%  
332 2% 7%  
333 1.4% 6%  
334 0.9% 4%  
335 0.8% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.3% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.3%  
340 0.3% 1.1%  
341 0.2% 0.8%  
342 0.2% 0.6%  
343 0.1% 0.5%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.4%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.2% 99.2%  
288 0.6% 99.0%  
289 0.5% 98%  
290 0.2% 98%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 1.5% 97%  
293 0.8% 96%  
294 0.3% 95%  
295 2% 94%  
296 3% 93%  
297 1.3% 90%  
298 0.9% 89%  
299 3% 88%  
300 4% 85% Last Result
301 1.2% 81%  
302 1.3% 79%  
303 5% 78%  
304 4% 73%  
305 2% 69%  
306 3% 67%  
307 6% 64%  
308 6% 58%  
309 1.1% 52% Median
310 4% 51%  
311 8% 47%  
312 3% 40%  
313 1.3% 36%  
314 3% 35%  
315 7% 32%  
316 2% 25%  
317 1.5% 23%  
318 3% 21%  
319 5% 18%  
320 1.4% 13%  
321 0.5% 12%  
322 2% 12%  
323 3% 9%  
324 0.8% 7%  
325 0.4% 6%  
326 2% 5%  
327 1.1% 4%  
328 0.2% 3%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.8% 2%  
331 0.3% 1.3%  
332 0.1% 1.0%  
333 0.1% 0.9%  
334 0.3% 0.8%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.3%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.2% 99.5%  
234 0.2% 99.3%  
235 0.2% 99.1%  
236 0.3% 98.9%  
237 0.7% 98.5%  
238 0.6% 98%  
239 1.2% 97%  
240 0.5% 96%  
241 0.7% 96%  
242 1.4% 95%  
243 2% 93%  
244 2% 91%  
245 2% 89%  
246 0.9% 87%  
247 3% 86%  
248 3% 83%  
249 4% 80%  
250 4% 76%  
251 2% 72%  
252 3% 70%  
253 3% 67%  
254 6% 64%  
255 4% 57%  
256 5% 53% Median
257 3% 49%  
258 4% 46%  
259 3% 42%  
260 6% 38%  
261 5% 33%  
262 2% 28%  
263 3% 26%  
264 3% 22%  
265 4% 20%  
266 3% 16%  
267 2% 14%  
268 1.1% 11%  
269 2% 10%  
270 1.3% 8%  
271 2% 7%  
272 1.2% 5%  
273 0.6% 4%  
274 0.7% 3%  
275 0.7% 3%  
276 0.3% 2%  
277 0.6% 2%  
278 0.2% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.9%  
280 0.1% 0.7%  
281 0.2% 0.6%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.2% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.5%  
161 0.2% 99.3%  
162 0.4% 99.1%  
163 0.5% 98.7%  
164 0.6% 98%  
165 0.7% 97%  
166 1.0% 97%  
167 0.9% 96%  
168 1.2% 95%  
169 2% 94%  
170 2% 91%  
171 2% 89%  
172 3% 87%  
173 3% 84%  
174 2% 80%  
175 4% 78%  
176 4% 74%  
177 3% 70%  
178 5% 67%  
179 5% 62%  
180 6% 57% Median
181 4% 51%  
182 5% 47%  
183 4% 42%  
184 4% 38%  
185 4% 34%  
186 4% 30%  
187 4% 26%  
188 4% 22%  
189 3% 19%  
190 2% 16%  
191 3% 13%  
192 2% 11%  
193 2% 9%  
194 1.2% 7%  
195 1.2% 6%  
196 0.9% 5%  
197 0.9% 4%  
198 0.5% 3%  
199 0.6% 2%  
200 0.4% 2%  
201 0.3% 1.1%  
202 0.2% 0.8%  
203 0.2% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.5%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
139 0% 100%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0% 99.9%  
145 0% 99.9%  
146 0% 99.9%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.1% 99.7%  
152 0.1% 99.6%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.5% 98.9%  
156 0.4% 98%  
157 0.5% 98%  
158 0.6% 98%  
159 2% 97%  
160 1.2% 95%  
161 2% 94%  
162 1.2% 92%  
163 2% 91%  
164 2% 89%  
165 4% 87%  
166 3% 82%  
167 3% 79%  
168 2% 76%  
169 6% 74%  
170 3% 68%  
171 7% 65%  
172 4% 58%  
173 4% 55% Median
174 4% 51%  
175 5% 46%  
176 5% 41%  
177 6% 36%  
178 3% 30%  
179 3% 28%  
180 3% 24%  
181 4% 21%  
182 3% 16%  
183 2% 14%  
184 1.4% 11%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 2% 6%  
188 0.8% 4%  
189 0.7% 4%  
190 0.5% 3%  
191 0.5% 2%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.5% 1.3%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0.2% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations