Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 6–9 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.0% 25.8–28.3% 25.4–28.7% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.4–18.6% 16.1–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.2% 13.5–17.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 12.0% 11.1–13.0% 10.9–13.3% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 203 194–213 191–216 189–218 185–223
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 132 124–140 121–142 120–144 116–149
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 117 109–125 107–127 105–129 102–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 91 84–98 82–100 80–102 77–105
Die Linke 69 57 51–62 50–64 48–66 46–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 57 51–62 50–64 48–66 46–69
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–59 46–60 45–62 42–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
179 0% 100%  
180 0% 99.9%  
181 0% 99.9%  
182 0.1% 99.9%  
183 0.1% 99.8%  
184 0.1% 99.7%  
185 0.2% 99.5%  
186 0.3% 99.3%  
187 0.4% 99.0%  
188 0.7% 98.5%  
189 1.0% 98%  
190 1.0% 97%  
191 1.2% 96%  
192 2% 95%  
193 2% 93%  
194 3% 91%  
195 2% 88%  
196 4% 86%  
197 3% 81%  
198 5% 78%  
199 4% 73%  
200 5% 68% Last Result
201 5% 64%  
202 5% 59%  
203 5% 54% Median
204 6% 49%  
205 5% 43%  
206 5% 37%  
207 5% 33%  
208 4% 28%  
209 4% 24%  
210 3% 20%  
211 4% 17%  
212 3% 13%  
213 2% 10%  
214 1.5% 8%  
215 1.3% 7%  
216 2% 5%  
217 0.9% 4%  
218 0.6% 3%  
219 0.6% 2%  
220 0.4% 1.5%  
221 0.4% 1.1%  
222 0.2% 0.7%  
223 0.2% 0.5%  
224 0.1% 0.3%  
225 0.1% 0.2%  
226 0% 0.1%  
227 0% 0.1%  
228 0% 0.1%  
229 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.4% 99.4%  
118 0.6% 99.0%  
119 0.8% 98%  
120 1.1% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 2% 95%  
123 2% 93%  
124 3% 91%  
125 3% 87%  
126 4% 84%  
127 6% 80%  
128 6% 75%  
129 6% 69%  
130 6% 63%  
131 6% 56%  
132 6% 51% Median
133 6% 45%  
134 5% 39%  
135 5% 34%  
136 6% 28%  
137 5% 22%  
138 3% 17%  
139 3% 14%  
140 2% 11%  
141 2% 9%  
142 2% 6%  
143 1.2% 5%  
144 1.0% 3%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.2%  
148 0.2% 0.8%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.1% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.5% 98.9%  
105 1.0% 98%  
106 1.1% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 3% 95%  
109 3% 92%  
110 3% 89%  
111 4% 86%  
112 5% 82%  
113 5% 76%  
114 8% 72%  
115 6% 64%  
116 7% 59%  
117 5% 52% Median
118 8% 47%  
119 5% 39%  
120 6% 34%  
121 6% 28%  
122 5% 23%  
123 4% 18%  
124 4% 14%  
125 2% 11%  
126 2% 8%  
127 2% 6%  
128 1.3% 4%  
129 1.0% 3%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.4%  
132 0.3% 1.0%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.2% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.2%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.4%  
79 0.7% 99.0%  
80 1.1% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 3% 93%  
84 4% 91%  
85 4% 87%  
86 5% 83%  
87 6% 78%  
88 6% 72%  
89 6% 65%  
90 8% 59%  
91 6% 51% Median
92 7% 45%  
93 7% 38%  
94 6% 31% Last Result
95 5% 25%  
96 5% 20%  
97 3% 15%  
98 4% 11%  
99 2% 8%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.2% 4%  
102 0.9% 3%  
103 0.5% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.1%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 0.7% 99.2%  
48 1.2% 98.5%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 4% 92%  
52 5% 88%  
53 7% 83%  
54 7% 76%  
55 8% 69%  
56 10% 61%  
57 10% 51% Median
58 8% 41%  
59 7% 32%  
60 7% 26%  
61 6% 19%  
62 4% 13%  
63 3% 10%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.5% 4%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
47 0.7% 99.2%  
48 1.3% 98%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 4% 92%  
52 5% 87%  
53 6% 82%  
54 8% 76%  
55 9% 68%  
56 9% 59%  
57 9% 50% Median
58 8% 42%  
59 7% 34%  
60 8% 27%  
61 5% 19%  
62 5% 14%  
63 3% 10%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.3% 4%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 1.0% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 3% 93%  
48 6% 90%  
49 7% 84%  
50 6% 77%  
51 9% 71%  
52 10% 62%  
53 8% 52% Median
54 8% 44%  
55 10% 36%  
56 6% 27%  
57 5% 20%  
58 5% 16%  
59 4% 10%  
60 2% 7%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.6% 1.5%  
64 0.4% 0.9%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 508 100% 499–518 497–521 495–523 489–527
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 445 100% 435–455 432–458 429–460 424–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 430 100% 420–440 417–443 414–445 409–450
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 404 100% 393–414 390–417 388–419 383–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 392 100% 381–402 378–405 376–408 371–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.7% 366–388 364–390 361–393 356–398
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 33% 340–361 337–364 335–367 330–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 314 0% 303–324 300–326 296–328 293–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 305 0% 295–316 292–319 290–321 285–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 302 0% 291–313 288–316 286–318 281–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 239–259 236–262 234–264 229–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 164–183 162–185 161–187 156–192
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 170 0% 161–179 158–182 157–184 152–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 99.9%  
486 0.1% 99.9%  
487 0.1% 99.8%  
488 0.1% 99.7%  
489 0.2% 99.7%  
490 0.2% 99.5%  
491 0.4% 99.3%  
492 0.3% 98.9%  
493 0.4% 98.6%  
494 0.6% 98%  
495 0.6% 98%  
496 1.2% 97%  
497 2% 96%  
498 1.4% 94%  
499 3% 93%  
500 3% 90%  
501 4% 87%  
502 3% 82%  
503 5% 79%  
504 6% 74%  
505 5% 68%  
506 6% 63%  
507 4% 58%  
508 5% 54%  
509 4% 49% Median
510 5% 45%  
511 3% 40%  
512 5% 37%  
513 4% 33%  
514 4% 28%  
515 4% 24%  
516 4% 20%  
517 3% 16%  
518 3% 12%  
519 2% 10%  
520 2% 8%  
521 2% 5%  
522 0.9% 4%  
523 0.8% 3%  
524 0.6% 2%  
525 0.5% 1.4%  
526 0.2% 0.8%  
527 0.2% 0.6%  
528 0.1% 0.4%  
529 0.1% 0.3%  
530 0.1% 0.2%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0.1%  
534 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.2% 99.6%  
425 0.2% 99.4%  
426 0.4% 99.2%  
427 0.4% 98.9%  
428 0.6% 98%  
429 0.5% 98%  
430 1.1% 97%  
431 1.0% 96%  
432 1.4% 95%  
433 2% 94%  
434 2% 92%  
435 2% 90%  
436 4% 88%  
437 3% 84%  
438 4% 81%  
439 3% 77%  
440 3% 74%  
441 5% 71%  
442 6% 66%  
443 4% 60%  
444 6% 56%  
445 6% 50% Median
446 4% 44%  
447 4% 40%  
448 4% 36%  
449 5% 32%  
450 5% 27%  
451 4% 22%  
452 3% 18%  
453 2% 16%  
454 2% 13%  
455 3% 11%  
456 2% 8%  
457 1.5% 7%  
458 1.4% 5%  
459 0.8% 4%  
460 0.8% 3%  
461 0.5% 2%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.4% 1.1%  
464 0.2% 0.8%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.2%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.9%  
407 0.1% 99.8%  
408 0.1% 99.7%  
409 0.2% 99.6%  
410 0.1% 99.4%  
411 0.5% 99.3%  
412 0.3% 98.9%  
413 0.7% 98.6%  
414 0.7% 98%  
415 0.7% 97%  
416 2% 97%  
417 0.9% 95%  
418 2% 94%  
419 2% 92%  
420 2% 91%  
421 4% 88%  
422 2% 84%  
423 5% 82%  
424 3% 78%  
425 3% 75%  
426 6% 72%  
427 3% 66%  
428 7% 63%  
429 5% 56%  
430 4% 51% Median
431 5% 47%  
432 4% 42%  
433 6% 38%  
434 4% 32%  
435 3% 27%  
436 4% 24%  
437 3% 20%  
438 4% 17%  
439 2% 13%  
440 2% 11%  
441 2% 9%  
442 0.9% 7%  
443 2% 6%  
444 0.9% 4%  
445 0.8% 3%  
446 0.9% 2%  
447 0.4% 2%  
448 0.4% 1.3%  
449 0.2% 0.9%  
450 0.2% 0.6%  
451 0.2% 0.5%  
452 0.1% 0.3%  
453 0.1% 0.2%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.5%  
384 0.2% 99.3%  
385 0.4% 99.1%  
386 0.3% 98.7%  
387 0.8% 98%  
388 0.6% 98%  
389 1.1% 97%  
390 1.3% 96%  
391 2% 95%  
392 1.5% 93%  
393 2% 91%  
394 2% 89%  
395 4% 87%  
396 3% 84%  
397 3% 81%  
398 5% 77%  
399 4% 73%  
400 5% 69%  
401 5% 64%  
402 3% 59%  
403 5% 56%  
404 5% 51% Median
405 5% 46%  
406 4% 41%  
407 5% 37%  
408 3% 32%  
409 6% 29%  
410 2% 23%  
411 4% 21%  
412 2% 16%  
413 3% 14%  
414 3% 11%  
415 1.5% 9%  
416 2% 7%  
417 1.2% 5%  
418 0.8% 4%  
419 0.9% 3%  
420 0.7% 2% Last Result
421 0.5% 2%  
422 0.3% 1.3%  
423 0.2% 0.9%  
424 0.3% 0.7%  
425 0.2% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0.1% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.7%  
371 0.1% 99.6%  
372 0.3% 99.5%  
373 0.5% 99.2%  
374 0.4% 98.7%  
375 0.5% 98%  
376 1.0% 98%  
377 0.9% 97%  
378 1.4% 96%  
379 1.4% 94%  
380 2% 93%  
381 2% 91%  
382 2% 89%  
383 3% 87%  
384 3% 84%  
385 3% 81%  
386 4% 77%  
387 4% 74%  
388 4% 69%  
389 7% 65%  
390 4% 59%  
391 3% 55%  
392 5% 52% Median
393 5% 47%  
394 6% 42%  
395 4% 36%  
396 4% 31%  
397 4% 28%  
398 4% 24%  
399 2% 20%  
400 4% 18%  
401 3% 14%  
402 1.5% 11%  
403 2% 10%  
404 2% 7%  
405 1.1% 6%  
406 0.9% 5%  
407 0.9% 4%  
408 0.6% 3%  
409 0.6% 2%  
410 0.5% 1.4%  
411 0.2% 0.9%  
412 0.1% 0.7%  
413 0.2% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0.1% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.7% Majority
356 0.2% 99.6%  
357 0.2% 99.4%  
358 0.5% 99.2%  
359 0.5% 98.7%  
360 0.6% 98%  
361 0.8% 98%  
362 0.4% 97%  
363 1.1% 97%  
364 2% 95%  
365 2% 93%  
366 2% 91%  
367 2% 89%  
368 4% 87%  
369 2% 83%  
370 2% 81%  
371 3% 79%  
372 5% 76%  
373 7% 71%  
374 5% 64%  
375 5% 60%  
376 3% 54%  
377 4% 51% Median
378 3% 47%  
379 4% 44%  
380 5% 39%  
381 5% 34%  
382 5% 29%  
383 4% 25%  
384 2% 20%  
385 3% 18%  
386 3% 16%  
387 2% 12%  
388 2% 10%  
389 2% 8%  
390 2% 6%  
391 1.0% 4%  
392 0.5% 3%  
393 0.6% 3%  
394 0.6% 2%  
395 0.5% 2%  
396 0.4% 1.2%  
397 0.2% 0.8%  
398 0.2% 0.5%  
399 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
400 0% 0.2%  
401 0% 0.2%  
402 0% 0.1%  
403 0% 0.1%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.2% 99.7%  
330 0.2% 99.6%  
331 0.3% 99.4%  
332 0.2% 99.1%  
333 0.4% 98.9%  
334 0.8% 98%  
335 0.9% 98%  
336 0.8% 97%  
337 1.2% 96%  
338 2% 95%  
339 3% 93%  
340 1.5% 90% Last Result
341 2% 89%  
342 5% 87%  
343 4% 82%  
344 3% 78%  
345 3% 76%  
346 5% 72%  
347 4% 67%  
348 4% 63%  
349 4% 60%  
350 5% 56%  
351 4% 51% Median
352 4% 47%  
353 7% 44%  
354 3% 37%  
355 4% 33% Majority
356 4% 30%  
357 4% 26%  
358 4% 22%  
359 3% 18%  
360 2% 14%  
361 3% 13%  
362 3% 10%  
363 1.2% 7%  
364 1.0% 6%  
365 1.0% 5%  
366 1.0% 4%  
367 0.8% 3%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.2% 1.4%  
370 0.4% 1.1%  
371 0.2% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.7%  
293 0.3% 99.5%  
294 0.4% 99.3%  
295 0.6% 98.9%  
296 0.9% 98%  
297 0.6% 97%  
298 0.8% 97%  
299 0.7% 96%  
300 0.8% 95%  
301 1.1% 95%  
302 2% 93%  
303 3% 92%  
304 3% 89%  
305 5% 86%  
306 4% 80%  
307 5% 76%  
308 3% 71%  
309 3% 68%  
310 3% 65%  
311 3% 62%  
312 4% 59%  
313 4% 55% Median
314 8% 51%  
315 7% 43%  
316 6% 36%  
317 5% 30%  
318 4% 25%  
319 2% 21%  
320 2% 19%  
321 2% 17%  
322 2% 15%  
323 2% 13%  
324 2% 11%  
325 2% 9%  
326 2% 7% Last Result
327 1.4% 4%  
328 0.9% 3%  
329 0.4% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.3%  
332 0.2% 1.1%  
333 0.2% 0.9%  
334 0.2% 0.7%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.2% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.2% 99.7%  
285 0.3% 99.5%  
286 0.2% 99.3%  
287 0.3% 99.1%  
288 0.5% 98.7%  
289 0.7% 98% Last Result
290 0.9% 98%  
291 0.8% 97%  
292 1.2% 96%  
293 2% 95%  
294 1.5% 93%  
295 3% 91%  
296 3% 89%  
297 2% 86%  
298 4% 84%  
299 2% 79%  
300 6% 77%  
301 3% 71%  
302 5% 68%  
303 4% 63%  
304 5% 59%  
305 5% 54%  
306 5% 49% Median
307 3% 44%  
308 5% 41%  
309 5% 36%  
310 4% 31%  
311 5% 27%  
312 3% 23%  
313 3% 19%  
314 4% 16%  
315 2% 13%  
316 2% 11%  
317 1.5% 9%  
318 2% 7%  
319 1.3% 5%  
320 1.1% 4%  
321 0.6% 3%  
322 0.8% 2%  
323 0.3% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.3%  
325 0.2% 0.9%  
326 0.2% 0.7%  
327 0.1% 0.5%  
328 0.1% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0.2% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.2% 99.5%  
283 0.7% 99.3%  
284 0.1% 98.6%  
285 0.9% 98.6%  
286 0.8% 98%  
287 0.1% 97%  
288 2% 97%  
289 2% 95%  
290 0.4% 93%  
291 4% 93%  
292 1.0% 88%  
293 3% 87%  
294 5% 84%  
295 1.5% 79%  
296 4% 78%  
297 5% 73%  
298 1.0% 68%  
299 9% 67%  
300 5% 58% Last Result
301 1.3% 53%  
302 7% 52% Median
303 3% 44%  
304 2% 41%  
305 9% 39%  
306 1.4% 30%  
307 3% 29%  
308 6% 26%  
309 0.6% 20%  
310 6% 19%  
311 2% 14%  
312 0.9% 11%  
313 3% 10%  
314 1.3% 7%  
315 0.7% 6%  
316 2% 5%  
317 0.3% 3%  
318 0.5% 3%  
319 0.7% 2%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0.3% 1.1%  
322 0.4% 0.8%  
323 0% 0.4%  
324 0.2% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2%  
327 0.1% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.3% 99.4%  
231 0.5% 99.2%  
232 0.5% 98.7%  
233 0.6% 98%  
234 0.6% 98%  
235 1.1% 97%  
236 2% 96%  
237 1.4% 94%  
238 2% 93%  
239 3% 91%  
240 4% 89%  
241 3% 84%  
242 3% 82%  
243 5% 79%  
244 6% 74%  
245 4% 68%  
246 4% 64%  
247 4% 60%  
248 6% 57%  
249 5% 50% Median
250 4% 45%  
251 4% 41%  
252 5% 37%  
253 5% 32%  
254 3% 27%  
255 4% 24%  
256 4% 20%  
257 3% 16%  
258 2% 13%  
259 2% 11%  
260 2% 9%  
261 1.4% 7%  
262 2% 6%  
263 0.8% 4%  
264 0.9% 3%  
265 0.8% 2%  
266 0.5% 2%  
267 0.2% 1.1%  
268 0.3% 0.8%  
269 0.2% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.3%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0.1%  
276 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.2% 99.7%  
156 0.2% 99.5%  
157 0.2% 99.3%  
158 0.3% 99.1%  
159 0.4% 98.8%  
160 0.6% 98%  
161 1.3% 98%  
162 2% 96%  
163 2% 94%  
164 3% 92%  
165 4% 89%  
166 3% 86%  
167 3% 83%  
168 3% 80%  
169 2% 77%  
170 4% 74%  
171 4% 70%  
172 7% 66%  
173 6% 58%  
174 8% 52% Median
175 8% 44%  
176 6% 37%  
177 4% 31%  
178 3% 26%  
179 3% 23%  
180 2% 20%  
181 3% 17%  
182 2% 15%  
183 3% 12%  
184 3% 9%  
185 2% 7%  
186 1.2% 4%  
187 1.0% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.3% 1.2%  
191 0.2% 0.8%  
192 0.2% 0.6%  
193 0.1% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0.1% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.3% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.2%  
155 0.6% 98.9%  
156 0.7% 98%  
157 1.3% 98%  
158 1.3% 96%  
159 1.5% 95%  
160 3% 93%  
161 2% 91%  
162 3% 89%  
163 3% 85%  
164 5% 82%  
165 4% 77%  
166 7% 73%  
167 3% 66%  
168 5% 63%  
169 7% 58%  
170 5% 51% Median
171 6% 46%  
172 3% 40%  
173 7% 37%  
174 5% 30%  
175 4% 26%  
176 4% 22%  
177 3% 17%  
178 2% 14%  
179 3% 12%  
180 2% 9%  
181 1.3% 7%  
182 2% 5%  
183 0.9% 4%  
184 0.7% 3%  
185 0.7% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.3%  
187 0.2% 0.9%  
188 0.2% 0.7%  
189 0.2% 0.5%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations