Opinion Poll by Allensbach, 1–11 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.5–31.8% 28.0–32.3% 27.6–32.7% 26.9–33.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.5% 17.2–20.0% 16.8–20.4% 16.5–20.7% 15.9–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.8% 15.1–19.2% 14.5–19.9%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.5% 8.5–10.6% 8.2–10.9% 8.0–11.2% 7.6–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.8% 6.1–9.0% 5.8–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.1–7.9% 5.9–8.2% 5.7–8.4% 5.3–8.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.5% 5.7–7.5% 5.5–7.8% 5.3–8.0% 4.9–8.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 222 210–233 207–237 204–240 198–246
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 136 127–147 124–150 122–152 116–158
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 125 116–136 113–138 111–141 106–146
Alternative für Deutschland 94 70 63–78 61–80 59–82 56–87
Die Linke 69 55 49–62 47–64 45–66 43–70
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–58 43–60 42–62 39–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 48 43–55 40–58 39–59 0–62

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.7%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.2% 99.4%  
200 0.4% 99.2% Last Result
201 0.3% 98.8%  
202 0.7% 98.6%  
203 0.4% 98%  
204 0.9% 98%  
205 0.6% 97%  
206 0.9% 96%  
207 1.2% 95%  
208 1.3% 94%  
209 1.3% 93%  
210 2% 91%  
211 2% 89%  
212 2% 88%  
213 3% 85%  
214 3% 82%  
215 5% 79%  
216 3% 74%  
217 5% 71%  
218 3% 66%  
219 6% 64%  
220 3% 58%  
221 4% 55%  
222 3% 51% Median
223 5% 48%  
224 3% 43%  
225 5% 39%  
226 3% 34%  
227 5% 31%  
228 3% 26%  
229 4% 23%  
230 2% 19%  
231 4% 17%  
232 2% 13%  
233 2% 11%  
234 0.9% 9%  
235 1.2% 8%  
236 1.0% 7%  
237 1.2% 6%  
238 0.8% 4%  
239 0.6% 4%  
240 0.6% 3%  
241 0.7% 2%  
242 0.4% 2%  
243 0.3% 1.4%  
244 0.2% 1.0%  
245 0.2% 0.8%  
246 0.2% 0.6%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0% 0.3%  
250 0.1% 0.2%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.2% 99.5%  
118 0.3% 99.2%  
119 0.4% 99.0%  
120 0.4% 98.6%  
121 0.6% 98%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 1.2% 97%  
124 1.0% 96%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 93%  
127 3% 91%  
128 4% 88%  
129 4% 84%  
130 5% 80%  
131 5% 75%  
132 4% 70%  
133 5% 66%  
134 5% 61%  
135 4% 55%  
136 4% 51% Median
137 4% 47%  
138 3% 43%  
139 4% 40%  
140 4% 36%  
141 4% 32%  
142 3% 29%  
143 4% 25%  
144 3% 21%  
145 3% 18%  
146 3% 14%  
147 3% 11%  
148 2% 8%  
149 1.3% 6%  
150 1.4% 5%  
151 0.9% 4%  
152 0.7% 3%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.4% 2%  
155 0.2% 1.3%  
156 0.2% 1.1%  
157 0.2% 0.8%  
158 0.2% 0.7%  
159 0.1% 0.5%  
160 0.1% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.3%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.2% 99.4%  
108 0.3% 99.2%  
109 0.3% 99.0%  
110 0.5% 98.6%  
111 0.9% 98%  
112 1.0% 97%  
113 2% 96%  
114 2% 94%  
115 2% 93%  
116 2% 90%  
117 2% 88%  
118 3% 86%  
119 3% 83%  
120 3% 79%  
121 4% 76%  
122 7% 72%  
123 5% 66%  
124 7% 61%  
125 5% 53% Median
126 5% 48%  
127 5% 43%  
128 4% 38%  
129 4% 34%  
130 4% 30%  
131 3% 26%  
132 4% 23%  
133 3% 19%  
134 4% 16%  
135 3% 13%  
136 3% 10%  
137 2% 8%  
138 1.2% 6%  
139 1.1% 5%  
140 0.6% 4%  
141 0.5% 3%  
142 0.5% 2%  
143 0.5% 2%  
144 0.3% 1.4%  
145 0.4% 1.0%  
146 0.2% 0.7%  
147 0.2% 0.5%  
148 0.1% 0.3%  
149 0.1% 0.2%  
150 0% 0.1%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 0.5% 99.2%  
58 0.6% 98.7%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 1.3% 97%  
61 2% 96%  
62 3% 94%  
63 4% 90%  
64 4% 86%  
65 5% 83%  
66 6% 78%  
67 6% 72%  
68 6% 65%  
69 6% 59%  
70 5% 53% Median
71 5% 48%  
72 7% 43%  
73 6% 35%  
74 5% 30%  
75 4% 24%  
76 4% 20%  
77 4% 16%  
78 4% 12%  
79 2% 8%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.3% 5%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.6% 2%  
85 0.3% 1.1%  
86 0.2% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.4% 99.5%  
44 0.7% 99.1%  
45 0.9% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 2% 96%  
48 3% 93%  
49 4% 91%  
50 5% 87%  
51 6% 82%  
52 6% 76%  
53 7% 70%  
54 8% 63%  
55 8% 55% Median
56 6% 47%  
57 7% 41%  
58 6% 34%  
59 5% 27%  
60 6% 22%  
61 4% 16%  
62 3% 12%  
63 2% 9%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.2% 5%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.7% 2%  
69 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
70 0.3% 0.7%  
71 0.2% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.4% 99.6%  
40 0.4% 99.3%  
41 1.1% 98.9%  
42 1.5% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 3% 95%  
45 4% 91%  
46 4% 88% Last Result
47 7% 84%  
48 7% 77%  
49 7% 70%  
50 8% 64%  
51 9% 56% Median
52 6% 47%  
53 8% 40%  
54 7% 32%  
55 5% 25%  
56 5% 20%  
57 4% 15%  
58 2% 11%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.0% 4%  
62 1.2% 3%  
63 0.6% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.3%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 0% 99.3%  
2 0% 99.3%  
3 0% 99.3%  
4 0% 99.3%  
5 0% 99.3%  
6 0% 99.3%  
7 0% 99.3%  
8 0% 99.3%  
9 0% 99.3%  
10 0% 99.3%  
11 0% 99.3%  
12 0% 99.3%  
13 0% 99.3%  
14 0% 99.3%  
15 0% 99.3%  
16 0% 99.3%  
17 0% 99.3%  
18 0% 99.3%  
19 0% 99.3%  
20 0% 99.3%  
21 0% 99.3%  
22 0% 99.3%  
23 0% 99.3%  
24 0% 99.3%  
25 0% 99.3%  
26 0% 99.3%  
27 0% 99.3%  
28 0% 99.3%  
29 0% 99.3%  
30 0% 99.3%  
31 0% 99.3%  
32 0% 99.3%  
33 0% 99.3%  
34 0% 99.3%  
35 0% 99.3%  
36 0% 99.3%  
37 0.4% 99.3%  
38 1.2% 99.0%  
39 1.5% 98%  
40 2% 96%  
41 2% 94%  
42 2% 93%  
43 4% 90%  
44 6% 86%  
45 10% 80%  
46 10% 70%  
47 8% 61%  
48 6% 53% Median
49 5% 48%  
50 6% 43%  
51 8% 37%  
52 8% 29%  
53 7% 22%  
54 4% 15%  
55 2% 10%  
56 1.5% 8%  
57 1.4% 7%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.4% 3%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 535 100% 524–546 521–549 518–552 512–569
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 458 100% 446–470 442–474 438–477 432–482
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 447 100% 435–460 431–463 428–466 420–472
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 409 100% 397–422 393–426 390–429 384–439
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 399 100% 386–412 382–415 379–418 373–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 391 99.9% 379–404 375–407 371–411 364–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 344 12% 330–356 327–359 324–363 317–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 321 0% 308–334 305–338 301–341 292–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 318 0.1% 305–330 302–334 298–338 292–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 299–323 295–327 290–329 281–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 261 0% 250–275 247–278 244–281 237–289
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 170–192 167–195 165–198 159–204
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 174 0% 163–185 160–189 157–191 138–197

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 99.9%  
508 0% 99.9%  
509 0.1% 99.9%  
510 0.1% 99.8%  
511 0.1% 99.7%  
512 0.2% 99.6%  
513 0.2% 99.4%  
514 0.3% 99.2%  
515 0.3% 98.9%  
516 0.4% 98.6%  
517 0.7% 98%  
518 0.7% 98%  
519 0.9% 97%  
520 0.8% 96%  
521 1.3% 95%  
522 1.5% 94%  
523 2% 92%  
524 2% 90%  
525 3% 88%  
526 3% 86%  
527 3% 83%  
528 3% 81%  
529 4% 78%  
530 4% 74%  
531 5% 70%  
532 3% 65%  
533 5% 62%  
534 5% 57% Median
535 4% 53%  
536 5% 48%  
537 5% 44%  
538 5% 39%  
539 3% 34%  
540 4% 30%  
541 3% 26%  
542 3% 23%  
543 3% 19%  
544 3% 17%  
545 3% 14%  
546 2% 11%  
547 2% 9%  
548 1.2% 7%  
549 2% 6%  
550 0.7% 5%  
551 0.8% 4%  
552 0.8% 3%  
553 0.4% 2%  
554 0.4% 2%  
555 0.3% 2%  
556 0.2% 1.3%  
557 0.1% 1.1%  
558 0.1% 1.0%  
559 0.1% 0.9%  
560 0.1% 0.8%  
561 0% 0.7%  
562 0% 0.7%  
563 0% 0.6%  
564 0% 0.6%  
565 0% 0.6%  
566 0% 0.6%  
567 0% 0.5%  
568 0% 0.5%  
569 0% 0.5%  
570 0% 0.5%  
571 0.1% 0.4%  
572 0% 0.4%  
573 0% 0.4%  
574 0.1% 0.3%  
575 0% 0.3%  
576 0% 0.3%  
577 0.1% 0.2%  
578 0% 0.2%  
579 0% 0.2%  
580 0% 0.1%  
581 0% 0.1%  
582 0% 0.1%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0.1%  
586 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0.1% 99.8%  
430 0.1% 99.7%  
431 0.1% 99.7%  
432 0.1% 99.5%  
433 0.2% 99.4%  
434 0.2% 99.2%  
435 0.2% 99.0%  
436 0.3% 98.8%  
437 0.5% 98%  
438 0.7% 98%  
439 0.4% 97%  
440 0.7% 97%  
441 0.9% 96%  
442 0.9% 95%  
443 1.2% 94%  
444 1.4% 93%  
445 1.4% 92%  
446 2% 90%  
447 2% 88%  
448 3% 86%  
449 2% 83%  
450 3% 81%  
451 3% 78%  
452 3% 75%  
453 4% 71%  
454 4% 67%  
455 3% 63%  
456 4% 60%  
457 4% 56% Median
458 5% 52%  
459 4% 47%  
460 5% 44%  
461 4% 39%  
462 3% 35%  
463 3% 31%  
464 4% 28%  
465 3% 24%  
466 4% 22%  
467 2% 18%  
468 2% 16%  
469 2% 14%  
470 2% 11%  
471 1.2% 9%  
472 2% 8%  
473 1.0% 6%  
474 0.9% 5%  
475 1.2% 4%  
476 0.5% 3%  
477 0.6% 3%  
478 0.5% 2%  
479 0.3% 1.4%  
480 0.3% 1.1%  
481 0.3% 0.8%  
482 0.1% 0.6%  
483 0.1% 0.5%  
484 0.1% 0.3%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0.1% 0.2%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0% 99.8%  
417 0% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.6%  
420 0.1% 99.6%  
421 0.1% 99.5%  
422 0.2% 99.3%  
423 0.2% 99.1%  
424 0.3% 98.9%  
425 0.2% 98.6%  
426 0.5% 98%  
427 0.3% 98%  
428 1.1% 98%  
429 0.7% 96%  
430 0.7% 96%  
431 0.9% 95%  
432 1.3% 94%  
433 1.2% 93%  
434 2% 92%  
435 2% 90%  
436 3% 88%  
437 3% 85%  
438 2% 83%  
439 2% 81%  
440 3% 78%  
441 4% 75%  
442 5% 72%  
443 3% 67%  
444 2% 64%  
445 4% 61%  
446 3% 57% Median
447 5% 54%  
448 4% 49%  
449 5% 45%  
450 5% 40%  
451 3% 34%  
452 2% 32%  
453 3% 29%  
454 4% 26%  
455 4% 22%  
456 3% 18%  
457 2% 16%  
458 1.3% 14%  
459 2% 13%  
460 2% 10%  
461 2% 8%  
462 1.4% 7%  
463 1.0% 5%  
464 1.0% 4%  
465 0.6% 3%  
466 0.4% 3%  
467 0.4% 2%  
468 0.6% 2%  
469 0.4% 1.2%  
470 0.2% 0.8%  
471 0.1% 0.6%  
472 0.1% 0.5%  
473 0.1% 0.4%  
474 0.1% 0.3%  
475 0.1% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1% Last Result
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0% 99.8%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0.2% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.6%  
384 0.2% 99.5%  
385 0.3% 99.3%  
386 0.2% 99.1%  
387 0.2% 98.9%  
388 0.7% 98.7%  
389 0.1% 98%  
390 0.6% 98%  
391 1.0% 97%  
392 0.3% 96%  
393 2% 96%  
394 1.3% 94%  
395 0.4% 93%  
396 2% 93%  
397 2% 91%  
398 0.8% 88%  
399 4% 87%  
400 3% 84%  
401 1.1% 81%  
402 6% 80%  
403 2% 74%  
404 2% 72%  
405 6% 70%  
406 4% 65%  
407 2% 60%  
408 8% 58%  
409 2% 51% Median
410 2% 49%  
411 6% 47%  
412 2% 41%  
413 3% 39%  
414 6% 36%  
415 2% 30%  
416 4% 28%  
417 5% 24%  
418 1.2% 19%  
419 3% 18%  
420 2% 15%  
421 1.0% 13%  
422 2% 12%  
423 2% 9%  
424 1.0% 8%  
425 1.1% 7%  
426 1.4% 6%  
427 0.3% 4%  
428 1.1% 4%  
429 0.5% 3%  
430 0.3% 2%  
431 0.5% 2%  
432 0.4% 2%  
433 0.2% 1.3%  
434 0.2% 1.2%  
435 0.1% 0.9%  
436 0.1% 0.8%  
437 0.1% 0.7%  
438 0.1% 0.6%  
439 0.1% 0.5%  
440 0.1% 0.4%  
441 0% 0.4%  
442 0.1% 0.3%  
443 0% 0.3%  
444 0% 0.2%  
445 0% 0.2%  
446 0% 0.2%  
447 0% 0.2%  
448 0% 0.2%  
449 0% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.1%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.6%  
373 0.1% 99.5%  
374 0.2% 99.4%  
375 0.1% 99.2%  
376 0.3% 99.0%  
377 0.5% 98.7%  
378 0.6% 98%  
379 0.8% 98%  
380 0.9% 97%  
381 0.6% 96%  
382 0.9% 95%  
383 1.4% 95%  
384 1.2% 93%  
385 1.2% 92%  
386 2% 91%  
387 2% 89%  
388 2% 86%  
389 3% 85%  
390 3% 82%  
391 4% 79%  
392 2% 75%  
393 3% 73%  
394 4% 69%  
395 4% 65%  
396 3% 61%  
397 3% 58%  
398 4% 55% Median
399 3% 51% Last Result
400 3% 48%  
401 4% 45%  
402 5% 41%  
403 4% 36%  
404 5% 32%  
405 4% 27%  
406 3% 23%  
407 2% 20%  
408 2% 18%  
409 2% 16%  
410 1.4% 14%  
411 2% 13%  
412 2% 11%  
413 2% 9%  
414 1.3% 7%  
415 1.3% 6%  
416 0.9% 4%  
417 0.5% 3%  
418 0.4% 3%  
419 0.3% 2%  
420 0.4% 2%  
421 0.2% 2%  
422 0.3% 1.5%  
423 0.2% 1.2%  
424 0.2% 1.0%  
425 0.2% 0.8%  
426 0.2% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.4%  
428 0% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.8%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0% 99.7%  
362 0% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.5%  
365 0.1% 99.4%  
366 0.1% 99.3%  
367 0.3% 99.2%  
368 0.4% 98.9%  
369 0.2% 98.5%  
370 0.2% 98%  
371 0.7% 98%  
372 0.6% 97%  
373 0.2% 97%  
374 0.6% 97%  
375 2% 96%  
376 1.4% 94%  
377 0.6% 93%  
378 0.8% 92%  
379 4% 92%  
380 2% 88%  
381 0.5% 85%  
382 2% 85%  
383 5% 83%  
384 3% 78%  
385 0.7% 74%  
386 3% 74%  
387 7% 71%  
388 3% 64%  
389 1.1% 61%  
390 4% 60%  
391 7% 56% Median
392 3% 50%  
393 2% 47%  
394 4% 45%  
395 7% 40%  
396 2% 34%  
397 2% 31%  
398 3% 29%  
399 6% 26%  
400 1.4% 20%  
401 1.3% 19%  
402 4% 18%  
403 3% 14%  
404 0.7% 11%  
405 1.1% 10%  
406 3% 9%  
407 1.2% 6%  
408 0.5% 5%  
409 0.4% 4%  
410 1.0% 4%  
411 1.1% 3%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.5% 1.4%  
415 0.2% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.2% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0% 0.2% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
310 0% 100%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.1% 99.6%  
318 0.1% 99.5%  
319 0.2% 99.4%  
320 0.2% 99.2%  
321 0.3% 98.9%  
322 0.5% 98.6%  
323 0.4% 98%  
324 0.7% 98%  
325 0.5% 97%  
326 0.9% 97%  
327 1.5% 96%  
328 1.0% 94%  
329 2% 93%  
330 1.4% 91%  
331 2% 90%  
332 3% 88%  
333 2% 85%  
334 2% 83%  
335 4% 80%  
336 3% 77%  
337 3% 73%  
338 3% 70%  
339 3% 67%  
340 4% 64% Last Result
341 3% 60%  
342 3% 57%  
343 4% 54% Median
344 4% 51%  
345 6% 46%  
346 3% 41%  
347 2% 38%  
348 3% 35%  
349 5% 32%  
350 4% 27%  
351 2% 24%  
352 3% 22%  
353 3% 19%  
354 4% 16%  
355 2% 12% Majority
356 1.2% 10%  
357 2% 9%  
358 2% 7%  
359 0.9% 6%  
360 0.7% 5%  
361 0.8% 4%  
362 0.6% 3%  
363 0.5% 3%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.3% 2%  
367 0.2% 1.2%  
368 0.1% 1.0%  
369 0.1% 0.8%  
370 0.1% 0.7%  
371 0.1% 0.6%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0.1% 0.4%  
374 0.1% 0.3%  
375 0% 0.2%  
376 0% 0.2%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0.1%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
275 0% 100%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0% 99.8%  
286 0% 99.8%  
287 0% 99.8%  
288 0% 99.7%  
289 0.1% 99.7%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.6%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0.1% 99.4%  
295 0.1% 99.3%  
296 0.2% 99.2%  
297 0.2% 99.0%  
298 0.2% 98.8%  
299 0.3% 98.6%  
300 0.4% 98%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 0.7% 96%  
305 0.9% 95%  
306 1.0% 94%  
307 2% 93%  
308 2% 91%  
309 2% 90%  
310 2% 88%  
311 3% 86%  
312 2% 84%  
313 4% 81%  
314 3% 78%  
315 2% 75%  
316 3% 73%  
317 4% 70%  
318 5% 66%  
319 4% 61%  
320 4% 57%  
321 4% 53% Median
322 3% 49%  
323 4% 46%  
324 4% 42%  
325 4% 38%  
326 3% 34% Last Result
327 5% 31%  
328 3% 26%  
329 3% 24%  
330 4% 21%  
331 2% 17%  
332 2% 15%  
333 2% 14%  
334 2% 11%  
335 2% 10%  
336 1.1% 8%  
337 2% 7%  
338 0.7% 5%  
339 0.9% 5%  
340 1.1% 4%  
341 0.5% 3%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.4% 2%  
344 0.3% 1.3%  
345 0.2% 1.1%  
346 0.2% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.4%  
350 0.1% 0.3%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0% Majority

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.2% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.3%  
295 0.5% 99.1%  
296 0.2% 98.6%  
297 0.2% 98%  
298 1.1% 98%  
299 1.0% 97%  
300 0.4% 96%  
301 0.5% 96%  
302 1.2% 95%  
303 3% 94%  
304 1.1% 91%  
305 0.7% 90%  
306 3% 89%  
307 4% 86%  
308 1.3% 82%  
309 1.4% 81%  
310 6% 80%  
311 3% 74%  
312 2% 71%  
313 2% 69%  
314 7% 66%  
315 4% 60%  
316 2% 55% Median
317 3% 53%  
318 7% 50%  
319 4% 44%  
320 1.1% 40%  
321 3% 39%  
322 7% 36%  
323 3% 29%  
324 0.7% 26%  
325 3% 26%  
326 5% 22%  
327 2% 17%  
328 0.5% 15%  
329 2% 15%  
330 4% 12%  
331 0.8% 8%  
332 0.6% 8%  
333 1.4% 7%  
334 2% 6%  
335 0.6% 4%  
336 0.2% 3%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.7% 3%  
339 0.2% 2%  
340 0.2% 2%  
341 0.4% 1.5%  
342 0.3% 1.1%  
343 0.1% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0.1% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0.1% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.8%  
278 0% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0% 99.4%  
283 0.1% 99.4%  
284 0.3% 99.3%  
285 0.3% 99.0%  
286 0.2% 98.7%  
287 0.1% 98.5%  
288 0.2% 98%  
289 0.4% 98%  
290 0.5% 98%  
291 0.3% 97%  
292 0.3% 97%  
293 0.3% 97%  
294 0.4% 96%  
295 0.9% 96%  
296 2% 95%  
297 1.4% 93%  
298 1.0% 92%  
299 2% 91%  
300 3% 89% Last Result
301 6% 86%  
302 6% 81%  
303 3% 75%  
304 2% 72%  
305 4% 70%  
306 7% 66%  
307 6% 59%  
308 3% 54%  
309 1.3% 51% Median
310 2% 50%  
311 2% 47%  
312 3% 45%  
313 3% 42%  
314 2% 39%  
315 1.3% 37%  
316 2% 35%  
317 4% 33%  
318 5% 29%  
319 3% 23%  
320 2% 20%  
321 2% 19%  
322 5% 17%  
323 4% 12%  
324 2% 8%  
325 0.8% 7%  
326 1.0% 6%  
327 1.4% 5%  
328 1.0% 4%  
329 0.6% 3%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 2%  
332 0.2% 2%  
333 0.2% 1.3%  
334 0.2% 1.1%  
335 0.2% 0.9%  
336 0.1% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.6%  
338 0.1% 0.5%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.2%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.8%  
236 0.1% 99.7%  
237 0.2% 99.6%  
238 0.1% 99.4%  
239 0.2% 99.2%  
240 0.2% 99.0%  
241 0.3% 98.8%  
242 0.4% 98%  
243 0.5% 98%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.6% 97%  
246 1.1% 96%  
247 0.9% 95%  
248 2% 94%  
249 2% 93%  
250 2% 91%  
251 2% 89%  
252 2% 87%  
253 4% 85%  
254 4% 81%  
255 4% 77%  
256 5% 73%  
257 4% 68%  
258 3% 64%  
259 3% 61%  
260 4% 58%  
261 4% 53% Median
262 3% 50%  
263 3% 46%  
264 3% 43%  
265 4% 41%  
266 3% 37%  
267 4% 34%  
268 3% 30%  
269 3% 27%  
270 3% 24%  
271 3% 22%  
272 3% 19%  
273 3% 16%  
274 2% 13%  
275 2% 11%  
276 2% 9%  
277 1.5% 7%  
278 1.4% 6%  
279 0.9% 4%  
280 0.7% 3%  
281 0.4% 3%  
282 0.5% 2%  
283 0.3% 2%  
284 0.3% 1.5%  
285 0.2% 1.2%  
286 0.2% 1.0%  
287 0.2% 0.8%  
288 0.1% 0.7%  
289 0.1% 0.6%  
290 0.1% 0.5%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.3%  
293 0.1% 0.2%  
294 0% 0.2%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0.1%  
297 0% 0.1%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.1% 99.7%  
159 0.2% 99.6%  
160 0.3% 99.4%  
161 0.3% 99.1%  
162 0.3% 98.9%  
163 0.4% 98.5%  
164 0.6% 98%  
165 0.9% 98%  
166 1.2% 97%  
167 2% 95%  
168 1.4% 94%  
169 2% 92%  
170 2% 90%  
171 2% 88%  
172 3% 86%  
173 3% 83%  
174 3% 80%  
175 3% 77%  
176 4% 74%  
177 5% 70%  
178 4% 66%  
179 6% 62%  
180 5% 56% Median
181 5% 51%  
182 5% 46%  
183 4% 41%  
184 4% 38%  
185 4% 34%  
186 3% 30%  
187 3% 27%  
188 3% 23%  
189 3% 20%  
190 4% 17%  
191 1.4% 13%  
192 2% 12%  
193 2% 9%  
194 1.1% 7%  
195 1.2% 6%  
196 0.9% 5%  
197 0.8% 4%  
198 0.7% 3%  
199 0.5% 2%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.3% 1.5%  
202 0.3% 1.1%  
203 0.2% 0.8%  
204 0.2% 0.6%  
205 0.1% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.8%  
128 0% 99.8%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0% 99.8%  
132 0% 99.7%  
133 0% 99.7%  
134 0% 99.7%  
135 0.1% 99.7%  
136 0% 99.6%  
137 0% 99.5%  
138 0% 99.5%  
139 0% 99.5%  
140 0% 99.5%  
141 0% 99.5%  
142 0% 99.4%  
143 0% 99.4%  
144 0% 99.4%  
145 0% 99.4%  
146 0% 99.4%  
147 0% 99.4%  
148 0% 99.3%  
149 0.1% 99.3%  
150 0.1% 99.2%  
151 0.1% 99.1%  
152 0.1% 99.0%  
153 0.2% 98.9%  
154 0.4% 98.7%  
155 0.3% 98%  
156 0.4% 98%  
157 0.6% 98%  
158 0.7% 97%  
159 0.9% 96%  
160 1.2% 95%  
161 1.4% 94%  
162 1.5% 93%  
163 2% 91%  
164 2% 89%  
165 3% 87%  
166 2% 84%  
167 5% 82%  
168 3% 77%  
169 5% 74%  
170 4% 70%  
171 5% 66%  
172 4% 61%  
173 5% 57% Median
174 4% 52%  
175 4% 48%  
176 5% 44%  
177 3% 38%  
178 6% 35%  
179 3% 29%  
180 4% 26%  
181 2% 22%  
182 4% 20%  
183 2% 15%  
184 2% 13%  
185 2% 11%  
186 1.4% 9%  
187 2% 8%  
188 1.0% 6%  
189 1.3% 5%  
190 0.5% 4%  
191 1.0% 3%  
192 0.6% 2%  
193 0.6% 2%  
194 0.3% 1.3%  
195 0.3% 1.0%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.2% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.2%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations