Opinion Poll by Kantar, 5–11 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.3–29.6% 26.9–30.0% 26.7–30.3% 26.1–30.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.3–9.8% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.2% 7.6–10.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.1% 6.6–9.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 6.0–7.3% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.4–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 217 208–226 205–228 203–230 198–234
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 145 137–152 135–154 133–157 130–160
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 108–122 105–124 104–126 101–129
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 63–74 62–76 60–77 58–80
Die Linke 69 61 56–67 54–68 53–70 51–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 49–59 47–60 46–61 44–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 45–55 44–57 43–58 41–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.3% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.5%  
200 0.4% 99.4% Last Result
201 0.3% 98.9%  
202 0.6% 98.7%  
203 1.0% 98%  
204 1.2% 97%  
205 2% 96%  
206 1.4% 94%  
207 2% 93%  
208 2% 91%  
209 4% 89%  
210 3% 85%  
211 4% 81%  
212 4% 77%  
213 5% 74%  
214 4% 69%  
215 8% 65%  
216 5% 57%  
217 7% 52% Median
218 5% 45%  
219 4% 40%  
220 7% 36%  
221 4% 29%  
222 6% 25%  
223 2% 19%  
224 3% 17%  
225 4% 14%  
226 2% 11%  
227 3% 9%  
228 1.0% 5%  
229 1.2% 4%  
230 0.8% 3%  
231 0.8% 2%  
232 0.5% 2%  
233 0.5% 1.1%  
234 0.2% 0.6%  
235 0.1% 0.4%  
236 0.1% 0.3%  
237 0.1% 0.2%  
238 0.1% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0.1% 99.9%  
128 0.1% 99.8%  
129 0.2% 99.7%  
130 0.5% 99.5%  
131 0.4% 99.1%  
132 0.5% 98.6%  
133 1.4% 98%  
134 1.2% 97%  
135 1.2% 96%  
136 3% 94%  
137 4% 91%  
138 3% 88%  
139 5% 85%  
140 4% 80%  
141 4% 76%  
142 9% 72%  
143 6% 63%  
144 4% 57%  
145 10% 53% Median
146 4% 42%  
147 5% 38%  
148 10% 34%  
149 3% 24%  
150 3% 21%  
151 6% 18%  
152 3% 13%  
153 2% 10%  
154 3% 8%  
155 1.0% 5%  
156 0.8% 4%  
157 1.4% 3%  
158 0.4% 2%  
159 0.4% 1.3%  
160 0.4% 0.9%  
161 0.1% 0.5%  
162 0.1% 0.3%  
163 0.1% 0.2%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.7%  
101 0.4% 99.6%  
102 0.5% 99.2%  
103 0.8% 98.7%  
104 1.2% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 2% 95%  
107 3% 93%  
108 4% 90%  
109 4% 86%  
110 5% 82%  
111 6% 77%  
112 7% 71%  
113 6% 63%  
114 8% 57% Median
115 6% 49%  
116 7% 43%  
117 7% 36%  
118 6% 29%  
119 5% 23%  
120 4% 18%  
121 3% 14%  
122 2% 10%  
123 3% 8%  
124 2% 5%  
125 1.3% 4%  
126 0.8% 3%  
127 0.6% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.1%  
129 0.3% 0.7%  
130 0.1% 0.4%  
131 0.1% 0.3%  
132 0.1% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 0.5% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.0%  
60 2% 98%  
61 1.4% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 4% 92%  
64 5% 88%  
65 9% 83%  
66 5% 74%  
67 12% 69%  
68 10% 57% Median
69 6% 47%  
70 9% 41%  
71 6% 32%  
72 7% 25%  
73 5% 18%  
74 4% 13%  
75 4% 10%  
76 1.3% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.4%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 0.8% 99.1%  
53 1.3% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 3% 94%  
56 6% 92%  
57 6% 86%  
58 7% 80%  
59 9% 73%  
60 8% 64%  
61 11% 57% Median
62 8% 45%  
63 10% 37%  
64 4% 27%  
65 8% 23%  
66 4% 15%  
67 5% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.2% 4% Last Result
70 1.4% 3%  
71 0.5% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 0.9% 99.0%  
46 2% 98%  
47 2% 96%  
48 4% 94%  
49 6% 90%  
50 8% 84%  
51 14% 76%  
52 9% 62%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 7% 43%  
55 7% 36%  
56 7% 30%  
57 6% 23%  
58 7% 17%  
59 4% 10%  
60 3% 6%  
61 1.2% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 0.9% 99.1%  
43 2% 98%  
44 3% 96%  
45 4% 93%  
46 6% 89% Last Result
47 7% 83%  
48 10% 76%  
49 10% 66%  
50 12% 55% Median
51 9% 44%  
52 9% 34%  
53 7% 25%  
54 5% 18%  
55 5% 13%  
56 3% 9%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.4% 3%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.6%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 526 100% 518–535 515–537 513–539 509–543
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 465 100% 456–474 453–476 451–479 446–483
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 434 100% 425–444 423–447 421–449 416–453
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 411 100% 402–421 399–424 397–426 392–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 379–398 376–401 374–403 370–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 100% 372–391 369–394 366–396 362–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 335 0.7% 326–345 323–348 321–350 316–355
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 311–330 308–333 306–335 301–339
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 320 0% 310–330 308–333 305–335 301–340
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 312 0% 303–322 300–325 298–327 294–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 250–269 247–271 245–273 241–278
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 176 0% 167–184 165–186 163–188 159–192
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 160–176 157–178 155–180 152–185

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 99.9%  
506 0.1% 99.9%  
507 0.1% 99.8%  
508 0.1% 99.7%  
509 0.3% 99.6%  
510 0.3% 99.3%  
511 0.6% 99.0%  
512 0.5% 98%  
513 1.1% 98%  
514 1.1% 97%  
515 2% 96%  
516 2% 94%  
517 2% 92%  
518 3% 90%  
519 3% 87%  
520 4% 84%  
521 4% 80%  
522 6% 76%  
523 6% 70%  
524 5% 65%  
525 5% 60%  
526 6% 54% Median
527 6% 48%  
528 6% 42%  
529 5% 36%  
530 5% 31%  
531 6% 26%  
532 4% 21%  
533 4% 17%  
534 3% 13%  
535 3% 10%  
536 2% 8%  
537 1.2% 5%  
538 1.2% 4%  
539 0.9% 3%  
540 0.6% 2%  
541 0.4% 1.3%  
542 0.2% 0.8%  
543 0.3% 0.6%  
544 0.2% 0.3%  
545 0.1% 0.2%  
546 0.1% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0.1% 99.9%  
444 0.1% 99.9%  
445 0.1% 99.8%  
446 0.2% 99.7%  
447 0.3% 99.5%  
448 0.3% 99.2%  
449 0.5% 98.9%  
450 0.8% 98%  
451 0.9% 98%  
452 1.1% 97%  
453 1.4% 96%  
454 2% 94%  
455 2% 93%  
456 3% 90%  
457 3% 88%  
458 3% 85%  
459 5% 82%  
460 4% 78%  
461 5% 73%  
462 6% 69%  
463 4% 62%  
464 7% 58%  
465 5% 52% Median
466 6% 47%  
467 6% 41%  
468 5% 34%  
469 4% 29%  
470 4% 25%  
471 4% 22%  
472 4% 18%  
473 3% 14%  
474 2% 11%  
475 3% 9%  
476 2% 7%  
477 1.3% 5%  
478 0.9% 4%  
479 0.8% 3%  
480 0.5% 2%  
481 0.3% 1.3%  
482 0.3% 1.0%  
483 0.2% 0.6%  
484 0.1% 0.4%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0.1% 0.2%  
487 0.1% 0.1%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.7%  
416 0.3% 99.6%  
417 0.3% 99.3%  
418 0.3% 99.0%  
419 0.6% 98.7%  
420 0.5% 98%  
421 1.4% 98%  
422 1.0% 96%  
423 1.5% 95%  
424 2% 94%  
425 3% 92%  
426 3% 89%  
427 2% 86%  
428 4% 84%  
429 4% 80%  
430 5% 76%  
431 3% 70%  
432 5% 67%  
433 7% 62%  
434 6% 55% Median
435 4% 50%  
436 4% 45%  
437 5% 41%  
438 6% 36%  
439 4% 30%  
440 4% 25%  
441 4% 21%  
442 3% 17%  
443 3% 14%  
444 3% 12%  
445 2% 9%  
446 1.4% 7%  
447 1.4% 6%  
448 1.2% 4%  
449 0.8% 3%  
450 0.7% 2%  
451 0.3% 1.4%  
452 0.4% 1.1%  
453 0.2% 0.7%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.9%  
390 0.1% 99.8%  
391 0.1% 99.8%  
392 0.2% 99.7%  
393 0.2% 99.5%  
394 0.4% 99.3%  
395 0.4% 98.9%  
396 0.5% 98%  
397 0.9% 98%  
398 1.1% 97%  
399 1.1% 96%  
400 2% 95%  
401 2% 93%  
402 2% 92%  
403 3% 89%  
404 3% 86%  
405 4% 83%  
406 4% 79%  
407 4% 75%  
408 4% 71%  
409 6% 67%  
410 3% 60%  
411 7% 57%  
412 4% 50% Median
413 6% 46%  
414 5% 40%  
415 5% 35%  
416 4% 30%  
417 5% 26%  
418 3% 21%  
419 3% 18%  
420 3% 14%  
421 2% 11%  
422 3% 9%  
423 1.4% 7%  
424 1.1% 5%  
425 1.3% 4%  
426 0.6% 3%  
427 0.7% 2%  
428 0.5% 2%  
429 0.3% 1.1%  
430 0.3% 0.8%  
431 0.2% 0.5%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.8%  
369 0.1% 99.6%  
370 0.2% 99.5%  
371 0.4% 99.3%  
372 0.4% 98.9%  
373 0.5% 98.5%  
374 0.8% 98%  
375 0.9% 97%  
376 1.4% 96%  
377 2% 95%  
378 2% 93%  
379 3% 91%  
380 2% 88%  
381 3% 86%  
382 4% 83%  
383 3% 79%  
384 5% 76%  
385 5% 71%  
386 6% 66%  
387 4% 60%  
388 5% 56% Median
389 6% 51%  
390 6% 45%  
391 4% 39%  
392 5% 36%  
393 5% 30%  
394 4% 26%  
395 4% 22%  
396 3% 18%  
397 2% 15%  
398 3% 12%  
399 2% 10%  
400 1.3% 7%  
401 2% 6%  
402 1.3% 4%  
403 0.7% 3%  
404 0.6% 2%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.4% 1.3%  
407 0.4% 0.9%  
408 0.2% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.2% 99.7%  
362 0.2% 99.6%  
363 0.2% 99.4%  
364 0.3% 99.1%  
365 0.5% 98.8%  
366 0.9% 98%  
367 0.8% 97%  
368 1.1% 97%  
369 1.2% 96%  
370 2% 94%  
371 2% 92%  
372 2% 91%  
373 3% 88%  
374 4% 85%  
375 3% 81%  
376 4% 79%  
377 3% 74%  
378 6% 71%  
379 6% 65%  
380 4% 59%  
381 5% 55% Median
382 5% 50%  
383 6% 45%  
384 5% 40%  
385 5% 34%  
386 5% 29%  
387 3% 24%  
388 3% 22%  
389 3% 18%  
390 4% 15%  
391 2% 11%  
392 2% 9%  
393 1.4% 7%  
394 2% 5%  
395 1.0% 4%  
396 0.7% 3%  
397 0.4% 2%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
400 0.2% 0.7%  
401 0.2% 0.5%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.8%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.2% 99.6%  
317 0.2% 99.4%  
318 0.4% 99.2%  
319 0.5% 98.8%  
320 0.4% 98%  
321 1.0% 98%  
322 0.8% 97%  
323 1.4% 96%  
324 2% 95%  
325 2% 93%  
326 2% 91%  
327 4% 89%  
328 4% 85%  
329 3% 82%  
330 5% 79%  
331 4% 74%  
332 5% 70%  
333 4% 66%  
334 6% 61%  
335 6% 55% Median
336 5% 49%  
337 5% 44%  
338 5% 39%  
339 5% 34%  
340 4% 29% Last Result
341 5% 25%  
342 3% 20%  
343 2% 17%  
344 3% 14%  
345 2% 11%  
346 2% 9%  
347 2% 7%  
348 1.1% 5%  
349 1.1% 4%  
350 0.7% 3%  
351 0.8% 2%  
352 0.4% 2%  
353 0.3% 1.2%  
354 0.2% 0.9%  
355 0.3% 0.7% Majority
356 0.2% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.2%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.1% 99.7%  
301 0.2% 99.6%  
302 0.4% 99.4%  
303 0.4% 99.1%  
304 0.5% 98.7%  
305 0.6% 98%  
306 0.7% 98%  
307 1.3% 97%  
308 2% 96%  
309 1.3% 94%  
310 2% 93%  
311 3% 90%  
312 2% 88%  
313 3% 85%  
314 4% 82%  
315 4% 78%  
316 5% 74%  
317 5% 70%  
318 4% 64%  
319 6% 61%  
320 6% 55% Median
321 5% 49%  
322 4% 44%  
323 6% 40%  
324 5% 34%  
325 5% 29%  
326 3% 24%  
327 4% 21%  
328 3% 17%  
329 2% 14%  
330 3% 12%  
331 2% 9%  
332 2% 7%  
333 1.4% 5%  
334 0.9% 4%  
335 0.8% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 1.5%  
338 0.4% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0.1% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.8%  
300 0.2% 99.7%  
301 0.2% 99.6%  
302 0.2% 99.4%  
303 0.5% 99.2%  
304 0.6% 98.7%  
305 0.7% 98%  
306 0.7% 97%  
307 1.2% 97%  
308 1.3% 96%  
309 2% 94%  
310 2% 92%  
311 3% 90%  
312 3% 87%  
313 2% 84%  
314 5% 82%  
315 4% 77%  
316 4% 73%  
317 3% 69%  
318 6% 65%  
319 6% 60%  
320 6% 53% Median
321 6% 48%  
322 5% 41%  
323 4% 37%  
324 3% 32%  
325 6% 30%  
326 4% 23% Last Result
327 3% 19%  
328 3% 16%  
329 2% 13%  
330 2% 11%  
331 2% 9%  
332 2% 7%  
333 1.2% 5%  
334 1.2% 4%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.5% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.1%  
339 0.2% 0.7%  
340 0.2% 0.5%  
341 0.1% 0.4%  
342 0.1% 0.2%  
343 0.1% 0.1%  
344 0% 0.1%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.6%  
295 0.5% 99.3%  
296 0.5% 98.9%  
297 0.6% 98%  
298 0.9% 98%  
299 1.0% 97%  
300 1.2% 96% Last Result
301 2% 95%  
302 2% 93%  
303 2% 91%  
304 3% 89%  
305 3% 86%  
306 3% 83%  
307 3% 80%  
308 6% 76%  
309 6% 71%  
310 6% 65%  
311 6% 59%  
312 6% 53% Median
313 4% 47%  
314 4% 43%  
315 4% 39%  
316 4% 35%  
317 5% 31%  
318 4% 26%  
319 4% 22%  
320 5% 18%  
321 2% 13%  
322 2% 11%  
323 2% 9%  
324 1.2% 7%  
325 2% 6%  
326 1.1% 4%  
327 0.7% 3%  
328 0.6% 2%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.0%  
331 0.2% 0.8%  
332 0.1% 0.5%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.9%  
239 0.1% 99.8%  
240 0.1% 99.7%  
241 0.3% 99.6%  
242 0.3% 99.3%  
243 0.4% 99.0%  
244 0.8% 98.6%  
245 0.8% 98%  
246 1.0% 97%  
247 1.5% 96%  
248 1.2% 95%  
249 2% 93%  
250 2% 91%  
251 3% 89%  
252 4% 85%  
253 4% 82%  
254 4% 78%  
255 4% 73%  
256 5% 69%  
257 4% 64%  
258 6% 61%  
259 6% 55% Median
260 6% 49%  
261 6% 43%  
262 5% 37%  
263 5% 32%  
264 3% 27%  
265 4% 24%  
266 3% 20%  
267 3% 16%  
268 4% 14%  
269 3% 10%  
270 2% 8%  
271 1.2% 6%  
272 1.3% 5%  
273 1.0% 3%  
274 0.6% 2%  
275 0.5% 2%  
276 0.3% 1.1%  
277 0.3% 0.8%  
278 0.1% 0.6%  
279 0.2% 0.4%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0.1% 0.2%  
282 0.1% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.2% 99.6%  
160 0.3% 99.4%  
161 0.4% 99.1%  
162 0.8% 98.6%  
163 0.8% 98%  
164 1.2% 97%  
165 2% 96%  
166 2% 94%  
167 3% 92%  
168 4% 90%  
169 3% 86%  
170 5% 83%  
171 5% 78%  
172 5% 74%  
173 5% 69%  
174 5% 64%  
175 8% 58% Median
176 6% 51%  
177 7% 45%  
178 5% 38%  
179 6% 33%  
180 5% 27%  
181 3% 22%  
182 4% 19%  
183 4% 15%  
184 3% 11%  
185 2% 8%  
186 1.4% 6%  
187 1.3% 5%  
188 1.2% 4%  
189 0.7% 2%  
190 0.6% 2%  
191 0.4% 1.1%  
192 0.2% 0.7%  
193 0.2% 0.5%  
194 0.1% 0.3%  
195 0.1% 0.2%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.3% 99.5%  
153 0.4% 99.3%  
154 0.7% 98.9%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.1% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 93%  
160 3% 91%  
161 3% 87%  
162 4% 84%  
163 5% 80%  
164 6% 75%  
165 5% 69%  
166 6% 63%  
167 6% 57% Median
168 6% 50%  
169 7% 45%  
170 5% 38%  
171 6% 33%  
172 4% 28%  
173 5% 23%  
174 4% 18%  
175 3% 15%  
176 3% 12%  
177 2% 9%  
178 2% 7%  
179 1.5% 5%  
180 0.9% 3%  
181 0.8% 2%  
182 0.5% 2%  
183 0.4% 1.2%  
184 0.2% 0.8%  
185 0.2% 0.5%  
186 0.1% 0.3%  
187 0.1% 0.2%  
188 0.1% 0.1%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations