Opinion Poll by Forsa, 9–13 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 28.0–30.6% 27.6–31.0% 27.3–31.3% 26.7–32.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.8% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 5.0% 4.4–5.7% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 227 214–241 211–246 209–248 203–255
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 148 138–160 135–162 133–165 129–170
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 118 108–126 105–129 104–132 100–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 78 71–86 69–88 67–90 64–94
Die Linke 69 63 56–69 54–71 53–73 51–77
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–59 46–61 44–63 42–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 38 0–43 0–45 0–46 0–49

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.2% 99.7%  
204 0.2% 99.5%  
205 0.2% 99.2%  
206 0.4% 99.1%  
207 0.2% 98.7%  
208 0.7% 98%  
209 0.4% 98%  
210 1.3% 97%  
211 1.1% 96%  
212 2% 95%  
213 2% 93%  
214 1.4% 91%  
215 1.5% 90%  
216 3% 88%  
217 2% 85%  
218 2% 84%  
219 2% 81%  
220 3% 79%  
221 4% 76%  
222 3% 72%  
223 5% 69%  
224 2% 65%  
225 4% 62%  
226 4% 58%  
227 5% 54% Median
228 3% 49%  
229 4% 46%  
230 3% 42%  
231 3% 39%  
232 3% 36%  
233 2% 33%  
234 2% 31%  
235 3% 29%  
236 3% 27%  
237 3% 23%  
238 4% 20%  
239 3% 16%  
240 2% 13%  
241 2% 10%  
242 0.8% 8%  
243 0.7% 8%  
244 0.4% 7%  
245 1.3% 7%  
246 0.6% 5%  
247 1.3% 5%  
248 1.0% 3%  
249 0.8% 2%  
250 0.5% 2%  
251 0.3% 1.0%  
252 0.2% 0.8%  
253 0.1% 0.6%  
254 0.1% 0.6%  
255 0.1% 0.5%  
256 0.1% 0.4%  
257 0.1% 0.3%  
258 0.1% 0.2%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.1% 99.7%  
129 0.3% 99.6%  
130 0.4% 99.3%  
131 0.4% 98.9%  
132 0.5% 98%  
133 0.7% 98%  
134 1.0% 97%  
135 2% 96%  
136 2% 94%  
137 2% 93%  
138 2% 91%  
139 4% 89%  
140 4% 85%  
141 3% 81%  
142 2% 78%  
143 4% 75%  
144 6% 71%  
145 4% 65%  
146 4% 61%  
147 3% 57%  
148 4% 54% Median
149 6% 49%  
150 5% 44%  
151 4% 39%  
152 3% 35%  
153 3% 32%  
154 3% 29%  
155 6% 26%  
156 3% 20%  
157 3% 17%  
158 1.5% 14%  
159 2% 12%  
160 3% 10%  
161 1.3% 7%  
162 2% 6%  
163 0.7% 4%  
164 0.6% 3%  
165 0.5% 3%  
166 0.6% 2%  
167 0.5% 1.4%  
168 0.3% 1.0%  
169 0.1% 0.7%  
170 0.2% 0.6%  
171 0.1% 0.4%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0% 0.1%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.2% 99.6%  
101 0.4% 99.4%  
102 0.5% 99.0%  
103 0.9% 98%  
104 0.9% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 2% 95%  
107 2% 93%  
108 3% 91%  
109 3% 88%  
110 3% 85%  
111 4% 82%  
112 3% 78%  
113 4% 75%  
114 4% 71%  
115 5% 66%  
116 6% 62%  
117 5% 56%  
118 5% 50% Median
119 6% 45%  
120 6% 39%  
121 4% 33%  
122 6% 29%  
123 3% 23%  
124 4% 20%  
125 4% 15%  
126 2% 12%  
127 2% 10%  
128 2% 8%  
129 2% 6%  
130 0.6% 4%  
131 1.0% 4%  
132 0.5% 3%  
133 0.7% 2%  
134 0.4% 1.3%  
135 0.3% 1.0%  
136 0.2% 0.6%  
137 0.1% 0.4%  
138 0.1% 0.3%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.7% 99.1%  
67 1.0% 98%  
68 1.4% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 94%  
71 3% 91%  
72 5% 88%  
73 5% 84%  
74 5% 79%  
75 8% 73%  
76 6% 65%  
77 6% 59%  
78 7% 53% Median
79 8% 47%  
80 5% 39%  
81 6% 34%  
82 5% 28%  
83 5% 23%  
84 3% 18%  
85 4% 14%  
86 3% 11%  
87 2% 8%  
88 1.4% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.9% 3%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.3%  
93 0.4% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.7%  
51 0.5% 99.5%  
52 1.0% 99.0%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 2% 94%  
56 2% 92%  
57 6% 90%  
58 5% 84%  
59 8% 78%  
60 5% 70%  
61 8% 65%  
62 6% 57%  
63 7% 51% Median
64 9% 44%  
65 7% 35%  
66 7% 29%  
67 4% 21%  
68 4% 17%  
69 4% 13% Last Result
70 3% 10%  
71 3% 7%  
72 1.4% 4%  
73 1.1% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.3%  
76 0.3% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.8% 99.1%  
44 1.1% 98%  
45 1.5% 97%  
46 3% 96% Last Result
47 4% 93%  
48 6% 89%  
49 6% 83%  
50 7% 77%  
51 9% 71%  
52 9% 62%  
53 8% 53% Median
54 8% 45%  
55 9% 37%  
56 7% 29%  
57 5% 22%  
58 4% 17%  
59 3% 13%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 7%  
62 2% 5%  
63 1.3% 3%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100%  
1 0% 52%  
2 0% 52%  
3 0% 52%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0% 52%  
7 0% 52%  
8 0% 52%  
9 0% 52%  
10 0% 52%  
11 0% 52%  
12 0% 52%  
13 0% 52%  
14 0% 52%  
15 0% 52%  
16 0% 52%  
17 0% 52%  
18 0% 52%  
19 0% 52%  
20 0% 52%  
21 0% 52%  
22 0% 52%  
23 0% 52%  
24 0% 52%  
25 0% 52%  
26 0% 52%  
27 0% 52%  
28 0% 52%  
29 0% 52%  
30 0% 52%  
31 0% 52%  
32 0% 52%  
33 0% 52%  
34 0% 52%  
35 0% 52%  
36 0% 52%  
37 0% 52%  
38 4% 52% Median
39 9% 48%  
40 9% 40%  
41 11% 31%  
42 6% 20%  
43 5% 14%  
44 3% 9%  
45 3% 6%  
46 1.4% 4%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.6% 1.2%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 543 100% 525–569 522–572 519–575 515–580
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 451 100% 436–465 432–469 430–472 424–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 429 100% 410–449 407–453 404–456 398–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 420 100% 404–435 400–439 397–441 392–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 397 100% 379–418 376–421 374–424 368–430
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 381 98.7% 364–398 360–401 357–404 351–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 359 60% 342–377 338–381 335–384 330–391
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 328 1.3% 311–345 308–349 305–352 300–358
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 303 0% 282–322 279–325 277–328 271–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 287 0% 268–307 263–310 260–312 255–318
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 265 0% 250–281 247–284 245–287 240–294
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 181 0% 168–192 165–195 163–197 158–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 145 0% 116–161 113–164 111–166 106–171

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0.1% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.8%  
513 0.1% 99.8%  
514 0.1% 99.7%  
515 0.2% 99.5%  
516 0.4% 99.3%  
517 0.4% 99.0%  
518 0.6% 98.6%  
519 0.6% 98%  
520 0.7% 97%  
521 1.0% 97%  
522 1.3% 96%  
523 2% 94%  
524 1.3% 93%  
525 3% 91%  
526 3% 89%  
527 2% 85%  
528 2% 83%  
529 2% 81%  
530 2% 79%  
531 3% 77%  
532 3% 74%  
533 3% 71%  
534 4% 68%  
535 4% 64%  
536 2% 60%  
537 2% 58%  
538 1.1% 56%  
539 2% 55%  
540 1.0% 53%  
541 1.2% 52%  
542 0.9% 51%  
543 1.0% 50%  
544 0.5% 49%  
545 0.4% 49%  
546 0.3% 49% Median
547 0.4% 48%  
548 0.3% 48%  
549 0.5% 48%  
550 0.3% 47%  
551 0.6% 47%  
552 0.5% 46%  
553 0.5% 46%  
554 1.0% 45%  
555 1.1% 44%  
556 1.4% 43%  
557 2% 42%  
558 2% 40%  
559 4% 37%  
560 2% 34%  
561 2% 32%  
562 3% 30%  
563 2% 27%  
564 2% 26%  
565 3% 24%  
566 2% 21%  
567 4% 19%  
568 2% 15%  
569 4% 12%  
570 2% 9%  
571 1.1% 7%  
572 1.4% 6%  
573 0.8% 5%  
574 0.7% 4%  
575 0.6% 3%  
576 0.6% 2%  
577 0.6% 2%  
578 0.3% 1.1%  
579 0.2% 0.8%  
580 0.3% 0.6%  
581 0.1% 0.2%  
582 0.1% 0.2%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0.1%  
586 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.3% 99.5%  
425 0.2% 99.3%  
426 0.3% 99.1%  
427 0.4% 98.9%  
428 0.3% 98%  
429 0.5% 98%  
430 0.9% 98%  
431 0.6% 97%  
432 1.0% 96%  
433 0.7% 95%  
434 2% 94%  
435 2% 93%  
436 1.3% 91%  
437 2% 90%  
438 3% 87%  
439 2% 85%  
440 3% 83%  
441 2% 80%  
442 3% 78%  
443 3% 75%  
444 3% 73%  
445 3% 70%  
446 3% 67%  
447 4% 64%  
448 2% 60%  
449 4% 58%  
450 3% 55%  
451 3% 52%  
452 2% 48%  
453 4% 46%  
454 2% 42%  
455 4% 40%  
456 3% 36%  
457 3% 33%  
458 2% 30%  
459 4% 28%  
460 3% 24%  
461 3% 21%  
462 2% 18%  
463 2% 16%  
464 2% 13%  
465 2% 11%  
466 1.2% 10% Median
467 2% 8%  
468 1.3% 7%  
469 0.8% 5%  
470 1.2% 4%  
471 0.6% 3%  
472 0.7% 3%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.4% 1.4%  
475 0.2% 1.0%  
476 0.3% 0.8%  
477 0.2% 0.5%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0.1% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0.1% 99.7%  
398 0.2% 99.6%  
399 0.2% 99.4%  
400 0.2% 99.2%  
401 0.4% 99.0%  
402 0.3% 98.6%  
403 0.5% 98%  
404 1.0% 98%  
405 0.8% 97%  
406 1.0% 96%  
407 2% 95%  
408 1.0% 94%  
409 2% 93%  
410 2% 91%  
411 2% 89%  
412 2% 87%  
413 2% 85%  
414 4% 83%  
415 1.1% 79%  
416 2% 78%  
417 4% 76%  
418 4% 73%  
419 2% 68%  
420 3% 66%  
421 1.4% 64%  
422 2% 62%  
423 2% 60%  
424 2% 58%  
425 1.4% 57%  
426 2% 55%  
427 2% 53%  
428 1.1% 51% Median
429 1.3% 50%  
430 2% 49%  
431 0.9% 47%  
432 2% 46%  
433 1.1% 44%  
434 2% 43%  
435 2% 41%  
436 1.5% 40%  
437 2% 38%  
438 3% 36%  
439 2% 33%  
440 3% 31%  
441 1.4% 29%  
442 3% 27%  
443 2% 25%  
444 2% 22%  
445 2% 20%  
446 2% 18%  
447 3% 16%  
448 1.1% 13%  
449 2% 12%  
450 1.3% 10%  
451 2% 9%  
452 0.6% 7%  
453 1.3% 6%  
454 0.6% 5%  
455 1.0% 4%  
456 0.7% 3%  
457 0.5% 2%  
458 0.3% 2%  
459 0.4% 1.4%  
460 0.2% 1.0%  
461 0.3% 0.7%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.3%  
465 0.1% 0.2%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.9%  
389 0.1% 99.8%  
390 0.1% 99.7%  
391 0.1% 99.6%  
392 0.2% 99.5%  
393 0.3% 99.3%  
394 0.2% 99.0%  
395 0.4% 98.8%  
396 0.5% 98%  
397 1.0% 98%  
398 0.5% 97%  
399 0.8% 96%  
400 2% 96%  
401 1.0% 94%  
402 2% 93%  
403 1.2% 91%  
404 3% 90%  
405 1.3% 87%  
406 2% 86%  
407 1.4% 84%  
408 2% 83%  
409 3% 81%  
410 1.2% 77%  
411 2% 76%  
412 4% 75%  
413 3% 71%  
414 3% 68%  
415 3% 66%  
416 3% 63%  
417 3% 60%  
418 3% 57%  
419 2% 54%  
420 3% 52%  
421 3% 48%  
422 3% 45%  
423 3% 42%  
424 3% 40%  
425 2% 37%  
426 2% 35%  
427 4% 33%  
428 1.5% 30%  
429 3% 28%  
430 2% 25%  
431 4% 23%  
432 2% 20%  
433 2% 18%  
434 4% 16%  
435 2% 12%  
436 2% 10% Median
437 2% 8%  
438 1.3% 6%  
439 2% 5%  
440 0.8% 4%  
441 0.6% 3%  
442 0.6% 2%  
443 0.4% 2%  
444 0.3% 1.2%  
445 0.2% 1.0%  
446 0.3% 0.8%  
447 0.2% 0.5%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.1% 99.6%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.4% 99.3%  
371 0.2% 98.9%  
372 0.6% 98.7%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 0.9% 98%  
375 1.2% 97%  
376 2% 96%  
377 1.4% 94%  
378 2% 92%  
379 1.3% 91%  
380 2% 90%  
381 2% 88%  
382 2% 86%  
383 1.4% 84%  
384 2% 82%  
385 1.2% 80%  
386 3% 79%  
387 2% 76%  
388 2% 74%  
389 2% 72%  
390 3% 70%  
391 2% 67%  
392 4% 65%  
393 2% 61%  
394 2% 59%  
395 3% 57%  
396 2% 54%  
397 2% 52%  
398 2% 50% Median
399 1.3% 47% Last Result
400 2% 46%  
401 1.4% 44%  
402 2% 43%  
403 1.4% 40%  
404 3% 39%  
405 1.3% 36%  
406 2% 35%  
407 1.4% 33%  
408 2% 32%  
409 3% 29%  
410 1.1% 26%  
411 1.3% 25%  
412 3% 24%  
413 2% 20%  
414 1.4% 18%  
415 2% 16%  
416 2% 15%  
417 2% 12%  
418 2% 10%  
419 1.2% 9%  
420 1.4% 7%  
421 1.3% 6%  
422 1.2% 5%  
423 0.6% 3%  
424 0.6% 3%  
425 0.6% 2%  
426 0.4% 2%  
427 0.3% 1.3%  
428 0.3% 1.1%  
429 0.2% 0.8%  
430 0.2% 0.6%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.3%  
433 0.1% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0.1% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.8%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.6%  
352 0.2% 99.4%  
353 0.3% 99.2%  
354 0.2% 98.9%  
355 0.5% 98.7% Majority
356 0.4% 98%  
357 0.5% 98%  
358 0.9% 97%  
359 0.7% 96%  
360 2% 96%  
361 0.9% 93%  
362 1.3% 93%  
363 0.8% 91%  
364 2% 91%  
365 2% 89%  
366 4% 87%  
367 1.4% 83%  
368 3% 82%  
369 1.5% 79%  
370 2% 77%  
371 2% 75%  
372 2% 72%  
373 4% 70%  
374 2% 66%  
375 2% 64%  
376 2% 62%  
377 2% 60%  
378 2% 58%  
379 3% 56%  
380 2% 53%  
381 2% 51%  
382 2% 49%  
383 3% 46%  
384 3% 43%  
385 2% 40%  
386 2% 38%  
387 2% 36%  
388 3% 34%  
389 3% 31%  
390 4% 28%  
391 1.3% 25%  
392 2% 23%  
393 2% 21%  
394 2% 19%  
395 2% 16%  
396 2% 15% Median
397 2% 12%  
398 2% 10%  
399 1.2% 9%  
400 1.1% 7%  
401 1.2% 6%  
402 1.0% 5%  
403 1.2% 4%  
404 0.5% 3%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.5% 2%  
407 0.4% 1.3%  
408 0.3% 0.9%  
409 0.1% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.5%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 99.9%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0% 99.8%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.7%  
330 0.2% 99.6%  
331 0.3% 99.3%  
332 0.3% 99.1%  
333 0.3% 98.8%  
334 0.5% 98.5%  
335 0.8% 98%  
336 0.7% 97%  
337 1.3% 96%  
338 0.8% 95%  
339 0.6% 94%  
340 1.0% 94% Last Result
341 2% 93%  
342 2% 91%  
343 4% 89%  
344 3% 85%  
345 2% 83%  
346 1.2% 81%  
347 2% 80%  
348 3% 78%  
349 4% 75%  
350 2% 71%  
351 2% 69%  
352 2% 67%  
353 2% 65%  
354 2% 63%  
355 3% 60% Majority
356 2% 57%  
357 2% 55%  
358 2% 53% Median
359 2% 51%  
360 4% 50%  
361 2% 46%  
362 2% 44%  
363 1.3% 42%  
364 2% 41%  
365 3% 39%  
366 4% 36%  
367 2% 32%  
368 4% 31%  
369 1.4% 27%  
370 2% 26%  
371 2% 24%  
372 2% 21%  
373 4% 19%  
374 2% 15%  
375 2% 14%  
376 1.1% 12%  
377 1.3% 11%  
378 1.4% 10%  
379 2% 8%  
380 1.1% 6%  
381 0.8% 5%  
382 0.9% 4%  
383 0.5% 3%  
384 0.5% 3%  
385 0.6% 2%  
386 0.5% 2%  
387 0.2% 1.3%  
388 0.2% 1.0%  
389 0.1% 0.8%  
390 0.1% 0.7%  
391 0.2% 0.5%  
392 0.1% 0.3%  
393 0.1% 0.3%  
394 0% 0.2%  
395 0% 0.1%  
396 0% 0.1%  
397 0% 0.1%  
398 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.9%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.8%  
299 0.1% 99.7%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.3% 99.4%  
302 0.4% 99.1%  
303 0.5% 98.7%  
304 0.5% 98%  
305 0.5% 98%  
306 1.2% 97%  
307 1.0% 96%  
308 1.2% 95%  
309 1.1% 94%  
310 1.2% 93%  
311 2% 91%  
312 2% 90%  
313 2% 88%  
314 2% 85%  
315 2% 84%  
316 2% 81%  
317 2% 79%  
318 1.3% 77%  
319 4% 75%  
320 3% 72%  
321 3% 69%  
322 2% 66%  
323 2% 64%  
324 2% 62%  
325 3% 60%  
326 3% 57%  
327 2% 54%  
328 2% 51%  
329 2% 49% Median
330 3% 47%  
331 2% 44%  
332 2% 42%  
333 2% 40%  
334 2% 38%  
335 2% 36%  
336 4% 34%  
337 2% 30%  
338 2% 28%  
339 2% 25%  
340 1.5% 23%  
341 3% 21%  
342 1.4% 18%  
343 4% 17%  
344 2% 13%  
345 2% 11%  
346 0.8% 9%  
347 1.3% 9%  
348 0.9% 7%  
349 2% 7%  
350 0.7% 4%  
351 0.9% 4%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.4% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.3% Majority
356 0.3% 1.1%  
357 0.2% 0.8%  
358 0.1% 0.6%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0.1% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
264 0% 100%  
265 0% 99.9%  
266 0% 99.9%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0.1% 99.9%  
269 0.1% 99.8%  
270 0.1% 99.7%  
271 0.3% 99.6%  
272 0.2% 99.3%  
273 0.4% 99.1%  
274 0.3% 98.7%  
275 0.3% 98%  
276 0.6% 98%  
277 0.6% 98%  
278 1.4% 97%  
279 1.1% 95%  
280 2% 94%  
281 1.5% 93%  
282 1.2% 91%  
283 2% 90%  
284 2% 88%  
285 2% 86%  
286 2% 85%  
287 3% 83%  
288 2% 80%  
289 1.2% 79%  
290 2% 77%  
291 4% 75%  
292 2% 71%  
293 2% 69%  
294 3% 68%  
295 2% 64%  
296 2% 63%  
297 1.2% 60%  
298 2% 59%  
299 2% 57%  
300 1.4% 56%  
301 2% 54%  
302 1.4% 53%  
303 2% 51%  
304 2% 50%  
305 2% 48%  
306 2% 46%  
307 2% 44%  
308 1.4% 42%  
309 2% 41%  
310 2% 39%  
311 2% 36%  
312 4% 34%  
313 2% 30%  
314 3% 28%  
315 4% 25%  
316 2% 22%  
317 1.4% 20%  
318 2% 18% Median
319 2% 16%  
320 1.5% 14%  
321 1.2% 13%  
322 3% 11%  
323 1.2% 9%  
324 1.3% 7%  
325 1.4% 6%  
326 1.2% 5% Last Result
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.9% 3%  
329 0.3% 2%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.3%  
332 0.4% 1.1%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
249 0% 100%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0.1% 99.9%  
253 0.1% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.2% 99.6%  
256 0.2% 99.4%  
257 0.3% 99.2%  
258 0.4% 98.9%  
259 0.6% 98.5%  
260 0.5% 98%  
261 1.0% 97%  
262 0.5% 96%  
263 1.1% 96%  
264 0.8% 95%  
265 1.2% 94%  
266 0.9% 93%  
267 2% 92%  
268 2% 90%  
269 2% 89%  
270 1.4% 86%  
271 2% 85%  
272 2% 83%  
273 3% 81%  
274 2% 78%  
275 3% 76%  
276 1.3% 74%  
277 3% 72%  
278 3% 69%  
279 2% 66%  
280 2% 64%  
281 2% 62%  
282 2% 60%  
283 1.2% 57%  
284 2% 56%  
285 1.3% 54%  
286 1.2% 53%  
287 2% 51%  
288 2% 50%  
289 1.4% 48%  
290 0.9% 47%  
291 2% 46%  
292 1.5% 43%  
293 2% 42%  
294 1.4% 40%  
295 2% 38%  
296 3% 36%  
297 2% 33%  
298 3% 31%  
299 3% 29%  
300 2% 26% Last Result
301 3% 24%  
302 3% 21%  
303 2% 18%  
304 2% 15% Median
305 2% 14%  
306 2% 12%  
307 2% 10%  
308 2% 8%  
309 0.8% 6%  
310 2% 6%  
311 0.9% 4%  
312 0.8% 3%  
313 0.5% 2%  
314 0.6% 2%  
315 0.3% 1.4%  
316 0.3% 1.0%  
317 0.2% 0.8%  
318 0.1% 0.6%  
319 0.1% 0.4%  
320 0.1% 0.3%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 99.9%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0.2% 99.5%  
241 0.5% 99.4%  
242 0.4% 98.9%  
243 0.4% 98.6%  
244 0.6% 98%  
245 0.8% 98%  
246 1.2% 97%  
247 0.9% 95%  
248 1.2% 95%  
249 2% 93%  
250 2% 91%  
251 2% 89%  
252 2% 88%  
253 2% 86%  
254 2% 84%  
255 2% 82%  
256 2% 80%  
257 3% 78%  
258 2% 75%  
259 3% 73%  
260 5% 70%  
261 4% 65%  
262 2% 61%  
263 3% 59%  
264 4% 56%  
265 3% 52%  
266 2% 49% Median
267 3% 47%  
268 3% 45%  
269 3% 41%  
270 2% 38%  
271 3% 36%  
272 2% 33%  
273 3% 31%  
274 2% 28%  
275 3% 25%  
276 1.5% 22%  
277 3% 21%  
278 3% 18%  
279 2% 15%  
280 2% 13%  
281 2% 11%  
282 2% 9%  
283 0.9% 6%  
284 2% 6%  
285 0.8% 4%  
286 0.5% 3%  
287 0.5% 3%  
288 0.3% 2%  
289 0.4% 2%  
290 0.3% 1.4%  
291 0.2% 1.2%  
292 0.1% 0.9%  
293 0.3% 0.8%  
294 0.2% 0.5%  
295 0.1% 0.4%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0.1% 0.2%  
298 0.1% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.8%  
158 0.2% 99.7%  
159 0.2% 99.5%  
160 0.3% 99.3%  
161 0.6% 98.9%  
162 0.6% 98%  
163 1.2% 98%  
164 0.8% 97%  
165 1.1% 96%  
166 1.3% 95%  
167 2% 93%  
168 2% 91%  
169 3% 89%  
170 2% 86%  
171 2% 84%  
172 3% 82%  
173 3% 78%  
174 3% 75%  
175 5% 72%  
176 5% 68%  
177 3% 63%  
178 3% 61%  
179 3% 57%  
180 3% 54%  
181 6% 50% Median
182 5% 44%  
183 5% 40%  
184 3% 35%  
185 3% 32%  
186 3% 29%  
187 4% 26%  
188 4% 22%  
189 3% 18%  
190 2% 14%  
191 2% 12%  
192 1.3% 11%  
193 2% 9%  
194 2% 7%  
195 1.3% 5%  
196 1.0% 4%  
197 0.6% 3%  
198 0.4% 2%  
199 0.3% 2%  
200 0.4% 2%  
201 0.4% 1.2%  
202 0.3% 0.8%  
203 0.2% 0.6%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.3%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.2% 99.5%  
108 0.4% 99.2%  
109 0.6% 98.9%  
110 0.6% 98%  
111 1.2% 98%  
112 1.0% 96%  
113 1.3% 95%  
114 1.2% 94%  
115 2% 93%  
116 2% 91%  
117 2% 90%  
118 4% 87%  
119 3% 84%  
120 3% 81%  
121 2% 78%  
122 5% 76%  
123 2% 71%  
124 4% 68%  
125 3% 65%  
126 1.5% 62%  
127 2% 60%  
128 1.4% 59%  
129 2% 57%  
130 0.5% 56%  
131 0.9% 55%  
132 0.5% 54%  
133 0.7% 54%  
134 0.4% 53%  
135 0.3% 53%  
136 0.3% 52%  
137 0.2% 52%  
138 0.2% 52%  
139 0.3% 52%  
140 0.1% 52%  
141 0.3% 51%  
142 0.3% 51%  
143 0.7% 51%  
144 0.2% 50%  
145 2% 50%  
146 0.7% 48%  
147 2% 47%  
148 2% 46%  
149 2% 44%  
150 2% 42%  
151 2% 40%  
152 3% 38%  
153 1.4% 34%  
154 3% 33%  
155 2% 29%  
156 5% 28% Median
157 3% 23%  
158 4% 20%  
159 3% 16%  
160 3% 13%  
161 3% 11%  
162 0.9% 8%  
163 2% 7%  
164 1.3% 5%  
165 1.1% 4%  
166 0.7% 3%  
167 0.9% 2%  
168 0.3% 1.5%  
169 0.4% 1.1%  
170 0.2% 0.7%  
171 0.1% 0.5%  
172 0.2% 0.4%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0.1% 0.2%  
175 0% 0.1%  
176 0% 0.1%  
177 0% 0%  
178 0% 0%  
179 0% 0%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations