Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 13–16 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.5% 28.2–30.8% 27.9–31.2% 27.6–31.5% 27.0–32.2%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.4–18.6% 16.1–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 211–229 208–232 206–234 201–239
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 130 122–139 120–141 118–143 115–147
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 116 108–123 106–125 104–127 101–131
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–89 74–91 72–93 69–96
Die Linke 69 56 50–62 49–64 48–65 46–68
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 51 47–58 46–59 44–62 43–63
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 47–58 46–59 44–61 42–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
196 0% 100%  
197 0% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.8%  
200 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.7%  
202 0.4% 99.5%  
203 0.5% 99.1%  
204 0.4% 98.5%  
205 0.5% 98%  
206 0.8% 98%  
207 1.1% 97%  
208 2% 96%  
209 2% 94%  
210 1.5% 92%  
211 2% 91%  
212 4% 89%  
213 5% 85%  
214 5% 80%  
215 3% 75%  
216 4% 73%  
217 5% 69%  
218 7% 64%  
219 6% 58%  
220 5% 51% Median
221 4% 47%  
222 6% 43%  
223 6% 37%  
224 6% 31%  
225 4% 25%  
226 2% 22%  
227 3% 19%  
228 4% 16%  
229 4% 13%  
230 2% 9%  
231 1.2% 7%  
232 1.0% 6%  
233 1.2% 5%  
234 1.2% 4%  
235 0.6% 2%  
236 0.4% 2%  
237 0.2% 1.3%  
238 0.4% 1.1%  
239 0.2% 0.7%  
240 0.2% 0.5%  
241 0.1% 0.3%  
242 0% 0.2%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0.1% 99.9%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.2% 99.7%  
115 0.3% 99.5%  
116 0.4% 99.3%  
117 0.6% 98.9%  
118 0.9% 98%  
119 1.3% 97%  
120 1.3% 96%  
121 2% 95%  
122 3% 92%  
123 3% 90%  
124 4% 86%  
125 5% 83%  
126 5% 77%  
127 6% 73%  
128 7% 67%  
129 5% 60%  
130 7% 55% Median
131 5% 48%  
132 7% 43%  
133 6% 36%  
134 5% 30%  
135 5% 26%  
136 4% 20%  
137 3% 16%  
138 3% 13%  
139 3% 11%  
140 2% 8%  
141 1.5% 6%  
142 1.2% 4%  
143 1.0% 3%  
144 0.5% 2%  
145 0.5% 1.4%  
146 0.3% 1.0%  
147 0.2% 0.6%  
148 0.2% 0.4%  
149 0.1% 0.3%  
150 0.1% 0.2%  
151 0% 0.1%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.8%  
101 0.3% 99.7%  
102 0.4% 99.3%  
103 0.7% 98.9%  
104 1.0% 98%  
105 2% 97%  
106 2% 96%  
107 3% 93%  
108 3% 91%  
109 3% 88%  
110 3% 85%  
111 5% 82%  
112 4% 77%  
113 6% 72%  
114 5% 66%  
115 8% 61%  
116 6% 53% Median
117 8% 48%  
118 6% 40%  
119 7% 34%  
120 6% 27%  
121 6% 21%  
122 4% 15%  
123 4% 12%  
124 2% 8%  
125 2% 6%  
126 1.1% 5%  
127 1.1% 4%  
128 0.7% 2%  
129 0.6% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.1%  
131 0.2% 0.7%  
132 0.1% 0.5%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.2%  
135 0.1% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.4% 99.4%  
71 0.8% 99.0%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 4% 90%  
77 6% 86%  
78 6% 80%  
79 6% 74%  
80 6% 68%  
81 7% 63%  
82 8% 55% Median
83 9% 47%  
84 7% 38%  
85 6% 30%  
86 6% 24%  
87 4% 18%  
88 4% 14%  
89 3% 11%  
90 2% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.2% 4%  
93 0.9% 3%  
94 0.7% 2% Last Result
95 0.3% 0.9%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 1.1% 99.2%  
48 2% 98%  
49 4% 96%  
50 5% 93%  
51 5% 88%  
52 8% 83%  
53 7% 75%  
54 8% 68%  
55 7% 60%  
56 6% 54% Median
57 6% 47%  
58 8% 42%  
59 6% 34%  
60 7% 28%  
61 6% 21%  
62 5% 15%  
63 4% 10%  
64 3% 6%  
65 1.4% 3%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.0%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0% 99.7%  
42 0% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 0.1% 96%  
46 0.7% 96%  
47 13% 95%  
48 5% 82%  
49 0.1% 77%  
50 5% 77%  
51 24% 72% Median
52 3% 48%  
53 0.1% 44%  
54 12% 44%  
55 15% 32%  
56 0.5% 17%  
57 0.7% 16%  
58 8% 16%  
59 4% 7%  
60 0.1% 3%  
61 0.6% 3%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.3% 0.7%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.8% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 98.6%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95% Last Result
47 5% 93%  
48 6% 88%  
49 9% 82%  
50 8% 73%  
51 7% 65%  
52 10% 58% Median
53 9% 48%  
54 9% 38%  
55 7% 29%  
56 6% 22%  
57 5% 16%  
58 4% 11%  
59 3% 7%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 518 100% 509–528 507–531 504–533 500–537
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 445–465 442–468 440–470 435–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 440 100% 430–450 428–453 425–455 420–460
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 406 100% 397–417 394–420 391–422 386–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 403 100% 393–413 389–416 387–419 382–423
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 388 100% 378–398 375–401 372–404 367–408
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 354 49% 344–365 341–368 339–370 334–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 324 0% 315–335 311–338 309–340 304–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 303 0% 292–312 289–315 287–318 282–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 298 0% 288–308 286–311 283–314 278–319
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 236–256 234–258 231–261 226–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 172 0% 163–181 160–183 158–186 154–190
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 159–177 157–179 155–181 151–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.8%  
499 0.2% 99.7%  
500 0.3% 99.6%  
501 0.3% 99.3%  
502 0.4% 99.0%  
503 0.5% 98.5%  
504 0.8% 98%  
505 1.0% 97%  
506 1.1% 96%  
507 2% 95%  
508 1.4% 93%  
509 2% 91%  
510 4% 89%  
511 3% 85%  
512 4% 83%  
513 4% 79%  
514 4% 74%  
515 6% 71%  
516 5% 65%  
517 5% 60%  
518 6% 55% Median
519 5% 49%  
520 5% 45%  
521 6% 40%  
522 3% 34%  
523 6% 31%  
524 4% 25%  
525 4% 21%  
526 4% 17%  
527 2% 14%  
528 3% 12%  
529 2% 8%  
530 2% 7%  
531 1.0% 5%  
532 1.3% 4%  
533 0.8% 3%  
534 0.6% 2%  
535 0.5% 1.3%  
536 0.3% 0.9%  
537 0.2% 0.6%  
538 0.2% 0.4%  
539 0.1% 0.2%  
540 0.1% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0.1%  
543 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0.2% 99.6%  
436 0.2% 99.4%  
437 0.3% 99.2%  
438 0.4% 98.8%  
439 0.6% 98%  
440 1.0% 98%  
441 0.7% 97%  
442 1.1% 96%  
443 2% 95%  
444 2% 93%  
445 2% 91%  
446 2% 89%  
447 3% 87%  
448 5% 84%  
449 3% 80%  
450 5% 76%  
451 5% 71%  
452 4% 66%  
453 8% 63% Median
454 3% 55%  
455 6% 52%  
456 5% 46%  
457 5% 41%  
458 4% 36%  
459 4% 32%  
460 5% 28%  
461 4% 23%  
462 3% 19%  
463 2% 16%  
464 3% 14%  
465 3% 11%  
466 2% 8%  
467 1.1% 7%  
468 2% 6%  
469 1.2% 4%  
470 0.7% 3%  
471 0.4% 2%  
472 0.4% 2%  
473 0.6% 1.2%  
474 0.2% 0.7%  
475 0.1% 0.5%  
476 0.1% 0.4%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0.1% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.8%  
419 0.1% 99.7%  
420 0.2% 99.6%  
421 0.2% 99.4%  
422 0.4% 99.2%  
423 0.3% 98.8%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 0.8% 98%  
426 0.9% 97%  
427 1.1% 96%  
428 1.2% 95%  
429 2% 94%  
430 2% 92%  
431 2% 90%  
432 2% 87%  
433 2% 85%  
434 3% 83%  
435 5% 80%  
436 7% 74%  
437 4% 68%  
438 5% 63%  
439 4% 58% Median
440 5% 55%  
441 5% 50%  
442 4% 44%  
443 6% 40%  
444 5% 34%  
445 4% 29%  
446 5% 25%  
447 3% 21%  
448 4% 18%  
449 3% 15%  
450 3% 11%  
451 1.2% 9%  
452 1.4% 8%  
453 2% 6%  
454 1.3% 5%  
455 1.1% 3%  
456 0.6% 2%  
457 0.5% 2%  
458 0.3% 1.2%  
459 0.2% 0.8%  
460 0.2% 0.6%  
461 0.1% 0.4%  
462 0.1% 0.3%  
463 0.1% 0.2%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.7%  
386 0.2% 99.6%  
387 0.2% 99.5%  
388 0.3% 99.2%  
389 0.5% 98.9%  
390 0.4% 98%  
391 0.8% 98%  
392 0.8% 97%  
393 1.1% 96%  
394 2% 95%  
395 1.4% 94%  
396 2% 92%  
397 3% 90%  
398 3% 88%  
399 3% 84%  
400 3% 82%  
401 5% 78%  
402 4% 74%  
403 5% 70%  
404 4% 65%  
405 4% 61% Median
406 7% 56%  
407 5% 49%  
408 5% 45%  
409 5% 40%  
410 4% 35%  
411 4% 31%  
412 4% 26%  
413 3% 22%  
414 3% 19%  
415 3% 16%  
416 2% 13%  
417 2% 10%  
418 2% 8%  
419 2% 7%  
420 1.1% 5% Last Result
421 1.1% 4%  
422 0.8% 3%  
423 0.7% 2%  
424 0.4% 2%  
425 0.3% 1.1%  
426 0.2% 0.8%  
427 0.2% 0.6%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.4%  
384 0.4% 99.2%  
385 0.3% 98.8%  
386 0.8% 98%  
387 0.6% 98%  
388 1.3% 97%  
389 1.4% 96%  
390 1.5% 94%  
391 1.2% 93%  
392 2% 92%  
393 3% 90%  
394 2% 87%  
395 4% 85%  
396 3% 80%  
397 6% 77%  
398 3% 71%  
399 4% 68%  
400 4% 64%  
401 3% 60%  
402 6% 57% Median
403 4% 50%  
404 5% 46%  
405 4% 41%  
406 6% 37%  
407 4% 31%  
408 4% 28%  
409 4% 24%  
410 3% 20%  
411 3% 17%  
412 2% 14%  
413 2% 11%  
414 2% 9%  
415 1.3% 7%  
416 1.2% 6%  
417 1.0% 5%  
418 1.1% 4%  
419 0.7% 3%  
420 0.4% 2%  
421 0.5% 1.4%  
422 0.3% 0.9%  
423 0.2% 0.7%  
424 0.1% 0.5%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.2% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.4%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.4% 99.1%  
371 0.9% 98.7%  
372 0.8% 98%  
373 0.6% 97%  
374 0.8% 96%  
375 0.9% 96%  
376 2% 95%  
377 2% 93%  
378 2% 91%  
379 3% 89%  
380 3% 86%  
381 3% 83%  
382 3% 80%  
383 3% 77%  
384 5% 74%  
385 8% 69%  
386 4% 61%  
387 4% 57%  
388 4% 53% Median
389 6% 49%  
390 6% 44%  
391 4% 38%  
392 4% 33%  
393 5% 29%  
394 3% 24%  
395 4% 21%  
396 3% 17%  
397 2% 15%  
398 3% 12%  
399 3% 10% Last Result
400 1.4% 7%  
401 1.1% 5%  
402 0.8% 4%  
403 0.9% 3%  
404 0.6% 3%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.5% 1.4%  
407 0.3% 0.9%  
408 0.2% 0.6%  
409 0.1% 0.4%  
410 0.1% 0.3%  
411 0.1% 0.2%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.8%  
332 0.1% 99.7%  
333 0.1% 99.6%  
334 0.2% 99.5%  
335 0.3% 99.3%  
336 0.4% 99.0%  
337 0.5% 98.6%  
338 0.6% 98%  
339 1.1% 98%  
340 0.9% 96% Last Result
341 0.9% 96%  
342 2% 95%  
343 2% 93%  
344 2% 91%  
345 2% 88%  
346 2% 86%  
347 4% 84%  
348 3% 80%  
349 3% 76%  
350 4% 73%  
351 4% 69%  
352 6% 64%  
353 5% 58%  
354 5% 54% Median
355 5% 49% Majority
356 4% 44%  
357 5% 40%  
358 4% 35%  
359 4% 30%  
360 5% 26%  
361 3% 22%  
362 2% 18%  
363 3% 16%  
364 2% 13%  
365 2% 10%  
366 2% 8%  
367 1.1% 6%  
368 1.3% 5%  
369 1.0% 4%  
370 0.6% 3%  
371 0.8% 2%  
372 0.3% 2%  
373 0.4% 1.2%  
374 0.2% 0.8%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.4%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.3% 99.4%  
306 0.2% 99.1%  
307 0.4% 98.9%  
308 0.8% 98%  
309 0.7% 98%  
310 1.1% 97%  
311 1.0% 96%  
312 1.2% 95%  
313 1.2% 94%  
314 2% 92%  
315 2% 90%  
316 3% 88%  
317 5% 85%  
318 3% 80%  
319 3% 77%  
320 4% 74%  
321 5% 70%  
322 5% 66%  
323 7% 61% Median
324 6% 54%  
325 3% 48%  
326 5% 45% Last Result
327 5% 40%  
328 4% 35%  
329 4% 31%  
330 4% 26%  
331 3% 22%  
332 3% 19%  
333 3% 17%  
334 3% 13%  
335 2% 10%  
336 1.5% 8%  
337 1.0% 7%  
338 1.3% 6%  
339 1.2% 4%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.1%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.5%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.3% 99.2%  
285 0.4% 98.9%  
286 0.7% 98%  
287 0.8% 98%  
288 1.1% 97%  
289 1.1% 96% Last Result
290 2% 95%  
291 2% 93%  
292 2% 92%  
293 2% 90%  
294 3% 87%  
295 3% 84%  
296 3% 81%  
297 4% 78%  
298 4% 74%  
299 4% 69%  
300 5% 65%  
301 5% 60%  
302 5% 55% Median
303 7% 51%  
304 4% 44%  
305 4% 39%  
306 5% 35%  
307 4% 30%  
308 5% 26%  
309 3% 22%  
310 3% 18%  
311 3% 16%  
312 3% 12%  
313 2% 10%  
314 1.4% 8%  
315 2% 6%  
316 1.1% 5%  
317 0.8% 4%  
318 0.8% 3%  
319 0.4% 2%  
320 0.5% 2%  
321 0.3% 1.1%  
322 0.2% 0.8%  
323 0.2% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.3%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
272 0% 100%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.9%  
276 0.1% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.2% 99.6%  
279 0.2% 99.5%  
280 0.3% 99.3%  
281 0.5% 99.0%  
282 0.6% 98%  
283 0.7% 98%  
284 0.9% 97%  
285 1.1% 96%  
286 1.5% 95%  
287 2% 94%  
288 2% 92%  
289 3% 90%  
290 3% 87%  
291 3% 84%  
292 3% 81%  
293 4% 78%  
294 4% 74%  
295 4% 69%  
296 5% 66%  
297 6% 60% Median
298 5% 54%  
299 5% 50%  
300 5% 45% Last Result
301 5% 39%  
302 4% 34%  
303 4% 30%  
304 5% 26%  
305 3% 22%  
306 4% 18%  
307 3% 15%  
308 2% 12%  
309 2% 10%  
310 1.5% 8%  
311 1.3% 6%  
312 1.2% 5%  
313 1.1% 4%  
314 0.7% 3%  
315 0.6% 2%  
316 0.4% 2%  
317 0.3% 1.1%  
318 0.2% 0.8%  
319 0.2% 0.6%  
320 0.1% 0.4%  
321 0.1% 0.3%  
322 0% 0.2%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.2% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.6%  
227 0.3% 99.5%  
228 0.3% 99.2%  
229 0.3% 98.9%  
230 0.6% 98.6%  
231 0.8% 98%  
232 0.8% 97%  
233 1.0% 96%  
234 2% 95%  
235 2% 93%  
236 3% 91%  
237 2% 89%  
238 3% 86%  
239 3% 83%  
240 3% 80%  
241 3% 77%  
242 4% 74%  
243 5% 70%  
244 5% 65%  
245 7% 60%  
246 6% 53% Median
247 6% 47%  
248 4% 41%  
249 5% 37%  
250 4% 32%  
251 4% 29%  
252 4% 25%  
253 3% 21%  
254 3% 18%  
255 2% 14%  
256 3% 12%  
257 2% 9%  
258 2% 7%  
259 0.9% 5%  
260 0.9% 4%  
261 0.6% 3%  
262 0.7% 2%  
263 0.4% 2%  
264 0.3% 1.4%  
265 0.4% 1.1%  
266 0.1% 0.6%  
267 0.2% 0.5%  
268 0.1% 0.3%  
269 0.1% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.2% 99.7%  
155 0.4% 99.4%  
156 0.3% 99.1%  
157 0.9% 98.8%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 1.0% 97%  
160 2% 96%  
161 2% 94%  
162 2% 93%  
163 2% 90%  
164 3% 88%  
165 4% 85%  
166 4% 82%  
167 4% 78%  
168 4% 74%  
169 5% 70%  
170 5% 65%  
171 7% 60%  
172 4% 53% Median
173 5% 48%  
174 6% 44%  
175 6% 38%  
176 5% 32%  
177 6% 27%  
178 3% 22%  
179 4% 19%  
180 3% 14%  
181 2% 11%  
182 3% 9%  
183 1.2% 6%  
184 1.2% 5%  
185 0.9% 4%  
186 0.8% 3%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.4% 1.3%  
189 0.2% 0.9%  
190 0.3% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0.3% 99.3%  
153 0.6% 98.9%  
154 0.6% 98%  
155 0.9% 98%  
156 1.3% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 2% 94%  
159 3% 92%  
160 2% 89%  
161 4% 87%  
162 5% 83%  
163 4% 78%  
164 5% 74%  
165 5% 69%  
166 5% 64%  
167 5% 59% Median
168 6% 55%  
169 6% 48%  
170 6% 42%  
171 5% 36%  
172 5% 31%  
173 6% 26%  
174 4% 21%  
175 4% 17%  
176 2% 13%  
177 2% 11%  
178 2% 8%  
179 2% 6%  
180 1.0% 5%  
181 1.1% 4%  
182 0.6% 2%  
183 0.5% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.3%  
185 0.3% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.2% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations