Opinion Poll by Kantar, 12–18 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 28.0–30.6% 27.6–31.0% 27.3–31.4% 26.7–32.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.2% 16.6–19.5% 16.4–19.8% 15.8–20.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.7% 13.9–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.3% 7.4–10.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 223 213–233 210–236 208–238 203–243
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 129–145 126–148 124–150 121–155
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 114–130 112–132 110–134 106–139
Alternative für Deutschland 94 68 62–75 61–77 59–78 57–82
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–59 46–61 45–62 43–66
Die Linke 69 53 48–59 46–61 45–63 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 46–57 45–59 43–61 41–63

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.2% 99.7%  
203 0.2% 99.6%  
204 0.3% 99.4%  
205 0.3% 99.1%  
206 0.5% 98.8%  
207 0.6% 98%  
208 0.8% 98%  
209 1.0% 97%  
210 2% 96%  
211 1.2% 94%  
212 2% 93%  
213 2% 91%  
214 2% 89%  
215 4% 86%  
216 3% 82%  
217 5% 79%  
218 4% 75%  
219 4% 71%  
220 5% 67%  
221 5% 62%  
222 5% 57%  
223 7% 52% Median
224 4% 45%  
225 4% 41%  
226 6% 37%  
227 4% 31%  
228 4% 27%  
229 3% 23%  
230 4% 20%  
231 3% 16%  
232 3% 14%  
233 2% 11%  
234 2% 9%  
235 1.4% 7%  
236 1.3% 5%  
237 0.8% 4%  
238 0.8% 3%  
239 0.6% 2%  
240 0.5% 2%  
241 0.3% 1.2%  
242 0.3% 0.9%  
243 0.2% 0.6%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0.1% 99.8%  
120 0.2% 99.7%  
121 0.3% 99.5%  
122 0.4% 99.2%  
123 0.6% 98.8%  
124 0.9% 98%  
125 1.1% 97%  
126 1.4% 96%  
127 2% 95%  
128 2% 93%  
129 3% 91%  
130 4% 87%  
131 4% 83%  
132 4% 79%  
133 5% 75%  
134 5% 70%  
135 6% 65%  
136 4% 58%  
137 7% 54% Median
138 6% 46%  
139 5% 40%  
140 6% 35%  
141 5% 30%  
142 4% 25%  
143 4% 21%  
144 4% 17%  
145 3% 12%  
146 2% 10%  
147 1.5% 8%  
148 2% 6%  
149 1.2% 4%  
150 0.9% 3%  
151 0.7% 2%  
152 0.5% 2%  
153 0.3% 1.1%  
154 0.3% 0.8%  
155 0.2% 0.5%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.1% 99.8%  
106 0.2% 99.6%  
107 0.4% 99.4%  
108 0.6% 99.0%  
109 0.8% 98%  
110 1.0% 98%  
111 2% 97%  
112 2% 95%  
113 2% 93%  
114 3% 91%  
115 4% 88%  
116 3% 84%  
117 6% 81%  
118 5% 74%  
119 6% 69%  
120 5% 62%  
121 7% 58%  
122 7% 51% Median
123 6% 44%  
124 6% 38%  
125 5% 32%  
126 5% 27%  
127 4% 22%  
128 4% 18%  
129 3% 14%  
130 2% 11%  
131 2% 9%  
132 2% 7%  
133 1.3% 5%  
134 1.0% 3%  
135 0.8% 2%  
136 0.4% 2%  
137 0.4% 1.2%  
138 0.2% 0.8%  
139 0.2% 0.5%  
140 0.1% 0.3%  
141 0.1% 0.2%  
142 0.1% 0.1%  
143 0% 0.1%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.5% 99.5%  
58 0.9% 99.0%  
59 1.2% 98%  
60 1.3% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 4% 92%  
63 3% 88%  
64 7% 85%  
65 4% 78%  
66 9% 74%  
67 10% 65%  
68 5% 55% Median
69 9% 50%  
70 9% 41%  
71 6% 32%  
72 6% 27%  
73 6% 21%  
74 3% 15%  
75 4% 12%  
76 2% 8%  
77 1.4% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.1%  
45 1.2% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 2% 95%  
48 5% 92%  
49 4% 87%  
50 8% 83%  
51 7% 75%  
52 9% 67%  
53 11% 59% Median
54 6% 48%  
55 10% 42%  
56 6% 31%  
57 8% 26%  
58 5% 18%  
59 4% 13%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.5% 99.1%  
45 1.5% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 2% 94%  
48 5% 92%  
49 4% 87%  
50 3% 83%  
51 11% 79%  
52 6% 68%  
53 12% 62% Median
54 8% 50%  
55 9% 42%  
56 6% 33%  
57 8% 27%  
58 3% 19%  
59 7% 16%  
60 2% 9%  
61 3% 7%  
62 1.2% 4%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 0.5% 2%  
65 0.6% 1.0%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1% Last Result
70 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.7% 99.3%  
43 1.2% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 3% 95%  
46 3% 92% Last Result
47 7% 89%  
48 6% 82%  
49 8% 77%  
50 7% 68%  
51 9% 61%  
52 11% 52% Median
53 10% 41%  
54 7% 32%  
55 6% 24%  
56 6% 19%  
57 3% 13%  
58 4% 10%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.5% 4%  
61 0.9% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 533 100% 524–542 522–545 519–547 514–552
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 465 100% 455–475 452–478 449–481 444–485
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 450 100% 439–460 436–463 434–465 429–471
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 412 100% 401–422 398–425 395–428 390–433
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 397 100% 386–407 383–410 380–413 375–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 385–407 383–410 380–412 375–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 8% 332–354 329–357 327–359 321–365
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 328 0.1% 317–339 314–341 312–344 306–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 312 0% 302–323 299–326 296–329 291–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 312 0% 302–323 299–326 296–329 291–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 249–269 246–272 243–275 238–280
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 166–185 164–187 162–190 157–195
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 175 0% 167–184 163–188 162–189 157–195

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0.1% 99.8%  
513 0.1% 99.8%  
514 0.2% 99.6%  
515 0.3% 99.5%  
516 0.3% 99.2%  
517 0.5% 98.9%  
518 0.5% 98%  
519 0.9% 98%  
520 0.9% 97%  
521 1.0% 96%  
522 2% 95%  
523 2% 93%  
524 2% 91%  
525 3% 89%  
526 3% 86%  
527 3% 82%  
528 4% 79%  
529 4% 74%  
530 5% 70%  
531 6% 65%  
532 4% 59%  
533 6% 55%  
534 4% 49% Median
535 6% 44%  
536 5% 38%  
537 8% 34%  
538 3% 26%  
539 4% 23%  
540 4% 19%  
541 3% 15%  
542 3% 12%  
543 2% 10%  
544 2% 8%  
545 2% 6%  
546 1.1% 4%  
547 0.9% 3%  
548 0.6% 2%  
549 0.6% 2%  
550 0.3% 1.1%  
551 0.3% 0.8%  
552 0.2% 0.5%  
553 0.1% 0.3%  
554 0.1% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0.1% 99.9%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0.1% 99.8%  
443 0.1% 99.8%  
444 0.2% 99.6%  
445 0.2% 99.4%  
446 0.3% 99.3%  
447 0.4% 99.0%  
448 0.6% 98.6%  
449 0.7% 98%  
450 0.7% 97%  
451 2% 97%  
452 1.0% 95%  
453 2% 94%  
454 1.4% 92%  
455 3% 91%  
456 3% 88%  
457 2% 85%  
458 4% 83%  
459 4% 79%  
460 4% 75%  
461 3% 71%  
462 5% 68%  
463 5% 63%  
464 6% 58%  
465 3% 53% Median
466 5% 50%  
467 4% 44%  
468 7% 40%  
469 5% 33%  
470 3% 28%  
471 5% 25%  
472 3% 20%  
473 3% 18%  
474 3% 15%  
475 3% 12%  
476 1.3% 8%  
477 1.4% 7%  
478 1.3% 6%  
479 1.1% 4%  
480 0.8% 3%  
481 0.7% 3%  
482 0.5% 2%  
483 0.4% 1.3%  
484 0.3% 0.9%  
485 0.1% 0.6%  
486 0.2% 0.5%  
487 0.1% 0.3%  
488 0.1% 0.2%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0.1%  
491 0% 0.1%  
492 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.8%  
428 0.1% 99.7%  
429 0.2% 99.6%  
430 0.2% 99.4%  
431 0.4% 99.1%  
432 0.4% 98.8%  
433 0.5% 98%  
434 0.8% 98%  
435 1.1% 97%  
436 1.4% 96%  
437 1.3% 95%  
438 1.4% 93%  
439 2% 92%  
440 2% 89%  
441 3% 88%  
442 3% 85%  
443 5% 81%  
444 2% 77%  
445 5% 75%  
446 4% 69%  
447 4% 65%  
448 5% 61%  
449 4% 56%  
450 4% 52% Median
451 5% 48%  
452 5% 43%  
453 7% 38%  
454 4% 32%  
455 4% 28%  
456 3% 24%  
457 4% 20%  
458 3% 16%  
459 2% 14%  
460 2% 12%  
461 2% 9%  
462 1.4% 7%  
463 1.3% 6%  
464 1.0% 4%  
465 0.9% 3%  
466 0.6% 2%  
467 0.5% 2%  
468 0.5% 1.3%  
469 0.2% 0.8%  
470 0.2% 0.7%  
471 0.2% 0.5%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.9%  
388 0.1% 99.8%  
389 0.1% 99.7%  
390 0.2% 99.6%  
391 0.2% 99.4%  
392 0.3% 99.3%  
393 0.4% 98.9%  
394 0.5% 98.5%  
395 0.6% 98%  
396 0.8% 97%  
397 1.1% 97%  
398 1.4% 95%  
399 1.5% 94%  
400 2% 92%  
401 2% 91%  
402 2% 89%  
403 3% 86%  
404 3% 83%  
405 4% 80%  
406 4% 76%  
407 4% 73%  
408 5% 69%  
409 5% 64%  
410 4% 59%  
411 4% 55%  
412 4% 50% Median
413 5% 46%  
414 4% 41%  
415 6% 37%  
416 5% 32%  
417 3% 27%  
418 5% 24%  
419 3% 19%  
420 3% 17%  
421 3% 13%  
422 2% 11%  
423 2% 9%  
424 1.2% 7%  
425 1.2% 6%  
426 1.0% 4%  
427 0.8% 3%  
428 0.7% 3%  
429 0.5% 2%  
430 0.5% 1.4%  
431 0.3% 1.0%  
432 0.1% 0.7%  
433 0.2% 0.6%  
434 0.1% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.7%  
375 0.2% 99.6%  
376 0.2% 99.4%  
377 0.3% 99.2%  
378 0.4% 98.9%  
379 0.6% 98.6%  
380 0.6% 98%  
381 1.0% 97%  
382 1.0% 96%  
383 2% 95%  
384 1.3% 94%  
385 2% 92%  
386 2% 90%  
387 3% 88%  
388 2% 85%  
389 3% 83%  
390 3% 80%  
391 3% 77%  
392 5% 73%  
393 4% 69%  
394 4% 64%  
395 4% 60%  
396 6% 56% Median
397 4% 51%  
398 5% 46%  
399 5% 41%  
400 4% 36%  
401 5% 32%  
402 4% 27%  
403 3% 22%  
404 3% 20%  
405 3% 16%  
406 2% 13%  
407 2% 11%  
408 1.4% 9%  
409 1.4% 7%  
410 1.4% 6%  
411 0.9% 5%  
412 1.1% 4%  
413 0.5% 3%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.4% 1.5%  
416 0.3% 1.0%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.2% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.1% 99.6%  
375 0.2% 99.5%  
376 0.3% 99.3%  
377 0.3% 99.1%  
378 0.4% 98.8%  
379 0.5% 98%  
380 0.8% 98%  
381 0.7% 97%  
382 1.3% 96%  
383 2% 95%  
384 2% 94%  
385 2% 92%  
386 2% 90%  
387 3% 88%  
388 3% 85%  
389 3% 82%  
390 3% 78%  
391 4% 75%  
392 3% 71%  
393 4% 67%  
394 5% 63%  
395 6% 59%  
396 5% 53%  
397 4% 48% Median
398 4% 43%  
399 4% 39% Last Result
400 6% 35%  
401 3% 29%  
402 3% 27%  
403 4% 23%  
404 3% 19%  
405 3% 16%  
406 2% 13%  
407 2% 11%  
408 2% 9%  
409 2% 7%  
410 1.3% 5%  
411 1.0% 4%  
412 0.9% 3%  
413 0.6% 2%  
414 0.4% 2%  
415 0.4% 1.4%  
416 0.3% 0.9%  
417 0.2% 0.7%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.2%  
421 0% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.6%  
322 0.2% 99.5%  
323 0.3% 99.3%  
324 0.3% 99.0%  
325 0.5% 98.7%  
326 0.5% 98%  
327 1.1% 98%  
328 1.0% 97%  
329 1.2% 96%  
330 2% 94%  
331 2% 93%  
332 2% 91%  
333 2% 90%  
334 4% 87%  
335 2% 84%  
336 4% 81%  
337 3% 77%  
338 4% 75%  
339 4% 71%  
340 4% 66% Last Result
341 4% 62%  
342 5% 58%  
343 4% 53% Median
344 4% 49%  
345 8% 45%  
346 4% 37%  
347 5% 33%  
348 2% 28%  
349 4% 26%  
350 3% 21%  
351 3% 18%  
352 3% 15%  
353 2% 12%  
354 2% 10%  
355 2% 8% Majority
356 1.4% 7%  
357 1.0% 5%  
358 1.0% 4%  
359 0.7% 3%  
360 0.6% 2%  
361 0.5% 2%  
362 0.5% 1.4%  
363 0.2% 0.9%  
364 0.2% 0.7%  
365 0.2% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.2% 99.8%  
306 0.1% 99.6%  
307 0.1% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.3%  
309 0.7% 99.1%  
310 0.4% 98%  
311 0.4% 98%  
312 0.5% 98%  
313 1.1% 97%  
314 2% 96%  
315 1.1% 94%  
316 1.3% 93%  
317 2% 92%  
318 3% 90%  
319 2% 86%  
320 2% 84%  
321 3% 82%  
322 5% 79%  
323 5% 74%  
324 3% 70%  
325 3% 66%  
326 6% 63% Last Result
327 6% 57%  
328 4% 51% Median
329 2% 47%  
330 5% 45%  
331 7% 40%  
332 4% 33%  
333 3% 29%  
334 3% 26%  
335 5% 23%  
336 3% 17%  
337 2% 14%  
338 1.0% 13%  
339 2% 12%  
340 3% 9%  
341 2% 6%  
342 0.5% 5%  
343 1.0% 4%  
344 1.0% 3%  
345 0.7% 2%  
346 0.2% 2%  
347 0.2% 1.4%  
348 0.4% 1.2%  
349 0.4% 0.8%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.3% 99.2%  
294 0.4% 99.0%  
295 0.6% 98.5%  
296 0.5% 98%  
297 1.1% 97%  
298 0.9% 96%  
299 1.4% 95%  
300 1.4% 94%  
301 1.4% 93%  
302 2% 91%  
303 2% 89%  
304 3% 87%  
305 3% 84%  
306 3% 80%  
307 4% 78%  
308 5% 73%  
309 4% 68%  
310 5% 64%  
311 5% 59%  
312 4% 54% Median
313 6% 49%  
314 4% 44%  
315 4% 40%  
316 4% 36%  
317 5% 31%  
318 3% 27%  
319 3% 23%  
320 3% 20%  
321 2% 17%  
322 3% 15%  
323 2% 12%  
324 2% 10%  
325 1.3% 8%  
326 2% 6%  
327 1.0% 5%  
328 1.0% 4%  
329 0.6% 3%  
330 0.6% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.4%  
332 0.3% 1.1%  
333 0.2% 0.8%  
334 0.2% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.3% 99.2%  
294 0.4% 98.9%  
295 0.6% 98.5%  
296 0.7% 98%  
297 0.8% 97%  
298 1.3% 96%  
299 0.8% 95%  
300 2% 94% Last Result
301 1.5% 92%  
302 2% 91%  
303 3% 88%  
304 3% 86%  
305 3% 82%  
306 3% 79%  
307 3% 76%  
308 5% 73%  
309 5% 68%  
310 4% 63%  
311 5% 59%  
312 6% 54% Median
313 5% 48%  
314 6% 44%  
315 3% 38%  
316 6% 35%  
317 3% 29%  
318 3% 26%  
319 3% 23%  
320 3% 20%  
321 2% 16%  
322 3% 14%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 2% 7%  
326 1.0% 6%  
327 1.1% 5%  
328 1.0% 4%  
329 0.5% 3%  
330 0.7% 2%  
331 0.3% 1.4%  
332 0.3% 1.2%  
333 0.3% 0.9%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.3%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.6%  
239 0.2% 99.5%  
240 0.3% 99.3%  
241 0.5% 98.9%  
242 0.5% 98%  
243 0.7% 98%  
244 1.1% 97%  
245 1.0% 96%  
246 1.2% 95%  
247 2% 94%  
248 2% 92%  
249 3% 90%  
250 2% 87%  
251 3% 85%  
252 4% 82%  
253 3% 78%  
254 5% 75%  
255 4% 70%  
256 5% 66%  
257 4% 61%  
258 5% 57%  
259 6% 51% Median
260 5% 46%  
261 6% 41%  
262 4% 35%  
263 3% 31%  
264 4% 28%  
265 4% 24%  
266 3% 20%  
267 3% 17%  
268 2% 14%  
269 2% 12%  
270 2% 9%  
271 1.5% 8%  
272 1.5% 6%  
273 1.0% 5%  
274 1.1% 4%  
275 0.5% 3%  
276 0.4% 2%  
277 0.5% 2%  
278 0.3% 1.1%  
279 0.2% 0.7%  
280 0.2% 0.6%  
281 0.2% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.1% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.6%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.2%  
160 0.5% 98.7%  
161 0.7% 98%  
162 0.8% 98%  
163 1.1% 97%  
164 2% 96%  
165 3% 94%  
166 2% 91%  
167 2% 89%  
168 5% 87%  
169 3% 83%  
170 3% 79%  
171 4% 76%  
172 7% 72%  
173 4% 65%  
174 7% 61%  
175 4% 54% Median
176 8% 50%  
177 4% 42%  
178 5% 38%  
179 4% 33%  
180 5% 29%  
181 4% 24%  
182 3% 20%  
183 3% 17%  
184 3% 14%  
185 3% 11%  
186 2% 8%  
187 2% 7%  
188 1.2% 5%  
189 1.1% 4%  
190 0.6% 3%  
191 0.8% 2%  
192 0.4% 1.4%  
193 0.3% 1.0%  
194 0.2% 0.7%  
195 0.2% 0.5%  
196 0.1% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0.1% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.2% 99.8%  
157 0.3% 99.5%  
158 0.2% 99.2%  
159 0.2% 99.0%  
160 0.4% 98.8%  
161 0.7% 98%  
162 2% 98%  
163 1.4% 96%  
164 2% 95%  
165 1.5% 93%  
166 1.4% 92%  
167 2% 90%  
168 5% 88%  
169 8% 83%  
170 4% 75%  
171 3% 71%  
172 2% 69%  
173 3% 66%  
174 6% 63%  
175 9% 58% Median
176 8% 48%  
177 7% 40%  
178 2% 33%  
179 2% 31%  
180 4% 29%  
181 4% 25%  
182 6% 20%  
183 3% 15%  
184 2% 11%  
185 1.1% 10%  
186 0.9% 9%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 6%  
189 1.2% 3%  
190 0.8% 2%  
191 0.3% 2%  
192 0.2% 1.2%  
193 0.2% 1.0%  
194 0.2% 0.8%  
195 0.3% 0.6%  
196 0.2% 0.3%  
197 0.1% 0.2%  
198 0% 0.1%  
199 0% 0.1%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations