Opinion Poll by Forsa, 16–19 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.5% 28.4–30.7% 28.1–31.1% 27.8–31.4% 27.2–31.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.2% 18.2–20.2% 17.9–20.5% 17.7–20.8% 17.2–21.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.2% 14.3–16.1% 14.0–16.4% 13.8–16.6% 13.4–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.1% 8.4–9.9% 8.2–10.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.1% 6.4–7.8% 6.3–8.0% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.2–7.5% 6.0–7.7% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.1% 5.5–6.7% 5.3–6.9% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 225 216–234 214–237 212–239 208–244
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 147 139–154 137–156 135–158 131–162
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 115 109–123 107–125 105–127 102–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 64–75 62–77 61–78 59–81
Die Linke 69 54 49–59 48–61 47–62 44–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 47–57 46–59 45–60 43–63
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 42–51 41–52 40–54 0–56

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 99.9%  
205 0.1% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.8%  
207 0.2% 99.7%  
208 0.3% 99.5%  
209 0.3% 99.2%  
210 0.5% 98.9%  
211 0.8% 98%  
212 0.8% 98%  
213 1.3% 97%  
214 2% 95%  
215 2% 94%  
216 2% 92%  
217 3% 89%  
218 4% 86%  
219 4% 83%  
220 4% 79%  
221 5% 74%  
222 5% 69%  
223 6% 63%  
224 5% 57%  
225 6% 52% Median
226 5% 46%  
227 6% 41%  
228 5% 35%  
229 5% 30%  
230 5% 25%  
231 3% 20%  
232 3% 17%  
233 2% 13%  
234 3% 11%  
235 2% 8%  
236 1.5% 7%  
237 2% 5%  
238 0.7% 4%  
239 0.8% 3%  
240 0.6% 2%  
241 0.4% 2%  
242 0.3% 1.1%  
243 0.2% 0.8%  
244 0.1% 0.6%  
245 0.1% 0.5%  
246 0.1% 0.4%  
247 0.1% 0.3%  
248 0% 0.2%  
249 0.1% 0.1%  
250 0% 0.1%  
251 0% 0.1%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0.1% 99.9%  
130 0.1% 99.8%  
131 0.2% 99.7%  
132 0.4% 99.5%  
133 0.4% 99.0%  
134 0.9% 98.7%  
135 1.1% 98%  
136 1.3% 97%  
137 2% 95%  
138 2% 93%  
139 4% 91%  
140 4% 87%  
141 3% 83%  
142 6% 80%  
143 5% 74%  
144 5% 70%  
145 10% 64%  
146 4% 55%  
147 9% 51% Median
148 7% 42%  
149 4% 35%  
150 8% 31%  
151 3% 23%  
152 4% 19%  
153 5% 16%  
154 2% 11%  
155 3% 9%  
156 2% 6%  
157 1.1% 5%  
158 1.4% 4%  
159 0.5% 2%  
160 0.5% 2%  
161 0.4% 1.1%  
162 0.2% 0.6%  
163 0.2% 0.5%  
164 0.1% 0.3%  
165 0.1% 0.2%  
166 0.1% 0.1%  
167 0% 0.1%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.2% 99.6%  
103 0.5% 99.4%  
104 0.6% 99.0%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 2% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 3% 94%  
109 4% 91%  
110 4% 87%  
111 5% 83%  
112 7% 78%  
113 5% 71%  
114 6% 65%  
115 10% 59% Median
116 7% 49%  
117 6% 43%  
118 8% 37%  
119 5% 29%  
120 5% 24%  
121 5% 19%  
122 3% 14%  
123 2% 10%  
124 3% 8%  
125 1.5% 5%  
126 1.2% 4%  
127 1.0% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.4% 1.2%  
130 0.4% 0.8%  
131 0.2% 0.4%  
132 0.1% 0.3%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.1%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.6%  
60 0.8% 99.2%  
61 1.4% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 95%  
64 4% 92%  
65 5% 87%  
66 7% 82%  
67 8% 75%  
68 8% 66%  
69 9% 58% Median
70 10% 50%  
71 8% 40%  
72 8% 32%  
73 6% 24%  
74 5% 18%  
75 4% 12%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.4% 4%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.5%  
81 0.3% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.7% 99.5%  
46 1.0% 98.8%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 96%  
49 4% 93%  
50 6% 88%  
51 7% 82%  
52 10% 75%  
53 10% 65%  
54 10% 55% Median
55 10% 45%  
56 9% 34%  
57 8% 26%  
58 6% 18%  
59 4% 12%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 5%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.6%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 0.8% 99.2%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 97% Last Result
47 5% 94%  
48 6% 89%  
49 7% 83%  
50 8% 76%  
51 10% 68%  
52 11% 58% Median
53 12% 47%  
54 8% 35%  
55 8% 27%  
56 6% 18%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 6%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 0% 99.2%  
8 0% 99.2%  
9 0% 99.2%  
10 0% 99.2%  
11 0% 99.2%  
12 0% 99.2%  
13 0% 99.2%  
14 0% 99.2%  
15 0% 99.2%  
16 0% 99.2%  
17 0% 99.2%  
18 0% 99.2%  
19 0% 99.2%  
20 0% 99.2%  
21 0% 99.2%  
22 0% 99.2%  
23 0% 99.2%  
24 0% 99.2%  
25 0% 99.2%  
26 0% 99.2%  
27 0% 99.2%  
28 0% 99.2%  
29 0% 99.2%  
30 0% 99.2%  
31 0% 99.2%  
32 0% 99.2%  
33 0% 99.2%  
34 0% 99.2%  
35 0% 99.2%  
36 0% 99.2%  
37 0% 99.2%  
38 0.3% 99.2%  
39 0.9% 98.9%  
40 3% 98%  
41 3% 95%  
42 6% 92%  
43 6% 86%  
44 8% 80%  
45 16% 72%  
46 7% 56% Median
47 11% 49%  
48 12% 38%  
49 8% 27%  
50 5% 19%  
51 6% 14%  
52 3% 8%  
53 1.4% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 1.5%  
56 0.6% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 539 100% 531–547 528–550 527–552 523–575
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 470 100% 461–478 458–481 455–483 450–487
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 439 100% 429–448 427–451 425–453 418–457
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 423 100% 414–433 411–436 409–438 405–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 393 100% 383–403 380–405 378–408 374–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 393 100% 383–402 381–405 378–407 371–412
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 346 16% 337–356 335–359 332–362 328–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 323 0% 313–333 311–335 308–338 299–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0% 307–326 304–328 302–331 297–338
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 308 0% 299–318 296–320 293–322 281–327
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 262 0% 253–271 250–274 248–276 244–282
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 162–178 160–180 157–183 154–187
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 162 0% 154–170 152–172 149–174 125–178

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 100%  
518 0% 100%  
519 0% 99.9%  
520 0.1% 99.9%  
521 0.1% 99.8%  
522 0.2% 99.7%  
523 0.3% 99.5%  
524 0.3% 99.2%  
525 0.5% 98.9%  
526 0.7% 98%  
527 0.8% 98%  
528 2% 97%  
529 1.2% 95%  
530 2% 94%  
531 3% 91%  
532 2% 88%  
533 4% 86%  
534 4% 82%  
535 6% 78%  
536 6% 72%  
537 5% 66%  
538 7% 60%  
539 4% 53% Median
540 7% 49%  
541 5% 41%  
542 7% 36%  
543 6% 29%  
544 4% 24%  
545 5% 20%  
546 3% 15%  
547 3% 12%  
548 1.3% 9%  
549 2% 7%  
550 1.2% 5%  
551 0.8% 4%  
552 0.7% 3%  
553 0.6% 2%  
554 0.4% 2%  
555 0.1% 1.3%  
556 0.1% 1.1%  
557 0.1% 1.0%  
558 0% 0.9%  
559 0% 0.9%  
560 0% 0.9%  
561 0% 0.8%  
562 0% 0.8%  
563 0% 0.8%  
564 0% 0.8%  
565 0% 0.8%  
566 0% 0.8%  
567 0% 0.8%  
568 0% 0.8%  
569 0% 0.8%  
570 0% 0.7%  
571 0.1% 0.7%  
572 0% 0.7%  
573 0% 0.6%  
574 0.1% 0.6%  
575 0% 0.5%  
576 0.1% 0.5%  
577 0.1% 0.4%  
578 0.1% 0.3%  
579 0.1% 0.3%  
580 0% 0.2%  
581 0% 0.2%  
582 0% 0.2%  
583 0% 0.1%  
584 0% 0.1%  
585 0% 0.1%  
586 0% 0.1%  
587 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0.1% 99.8%  
448 0.1% 99.8%  
449 0.1% 99.7%  
450 0.1% 99.6%  
451 0.2% 99.4%  
452 0.2% 99.2%  
453 0.3% 99.0%  
454 0.4% 98.7%  
455 0.8% 98%  
456 0.7% 97%  
457 1.2% 97%  
458 1.5% 96%  
459 2% 94%  
460 2% 92%  
461 3% 90%  
462 2% 87%  
463 4% 85%  
464 3% 82%  
465 4% 78%  
466 6% 74%  
467 4% 68%  
468 8% 64%  
469 4% 57%  
470 7% 53% Median
471 4% 46%  
472 6% 42%  
473 5% 36%  
474 5% 31%  
475 5% 26%  
476 6% 22%  
477 2% 16%  
478 4% 13%  
479 2% 10%  
480 2% 8%  
481 1.4% 6%  
482 0.9% 4%  
483 1.2% 3%  
484 0.6% 2%  
485 0.5% 2%  
486 0.4% 1.2%  
487 0.2% 0.7%  
488 0.2% 0.5%  
489 0.1% 0.3%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0.1% 0.1%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.1% 99.5%  
420 0.2% 99.4%  
421 0.2% 99.1%  
422 0.4% 98.9%  
423 0.5% 98.5%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 0.9% 98%  
426 1.2% 97%  
427 1.3% 95%  
428 2% 94%  
429 2% 92%  
430 3% 90%  
431 2% 87%  
432 4% 85%  
433 2% 81%  
434 4% 79%  
435 3% 75%  
436 6% 72%  
437 5% 66%  
438 6% 62% Median
439 6% 55%  
440 7% 49%  
441 7% 43%  
442 5% 35%  
443 5% 30%  
444 4% 25%  
445 3% 21%  
446 4% 17%  
447 2% 14%  
448 2% 12%  
449 2% 10%  
450 2% 8%  
451 1.4% 6%  
452 2% 5%  
453 0.7% 3%  
454 0.9% 2%  
455 0.6% 2%  
456 0.4% 1.0%  
457 0.2% 0.6%  
458 0.1% 0.4%  
459 0.1% 0.3%  
460 0.1% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.2% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0.4% 99.4%  
407 0.3% 99.0%  
408 0.6% 98.7%  
409 0.8% 98%  
410 0.9% 97%  
411 1.5% 96%  
412 1.4% 95%  
413 2% 94%  
414 2% 91%  
415 3% 89%  
416 3% 86%  
417 4% 84%  
418 5% 80%  
419 5% 75%  
420 3% 70%  
421 6% 67%  
422 5% 61%  
423 6% 56%  
424 5% 50% Median
425 7% 45%  
426 4% 38%  
427 5% 34%  
428 4% 29%  
429 4% 25%  
430 4% 21%  
431 3% 17%  
432 3% 14%  
433 3% 11%  
434 2% 8%  
435 1.3% 6%  
436 1.1% 5%  
437 0.9% 4%  
438 0.6% 3%  
439 0.5% 2%  
440 0.4% 2%  
441 0.3% 2%  
442 0.2% 1.3%  
443 0.1% 1.1%  
444 0.1% 1.0%  
445 0.1% 0.9%  
446 0.1% 0.8%  
447 0.1% 0.8%  
448 0% 0.7%  
449 0.1% 0.6%  
450 0% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0% 0.5%  
453 0% 0.4%  
454 0% 0.4%  
455 0% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0% 0.3%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.2%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.8%  
374 0.2% 99.6%  
375 0.3% 99.4%  
376 0.6% 99.1%  
377 0.4% 98.5%  
378 1.1% 98%  
379 0.7% 97%  
380 1.4% 96%  
381 1.4% 95%  
382 1.4% 93%  
383 2% 92%  
384 2% 90%  
385 3% 88%  
386 3% 85%  
387 4% 82%  
388 5% 78%  
389 4% 73%  
390 6% 69%  
391 8% 64%  
392 5% 55% Median
393 7% 51%  
394 5% 44%  
395 6% 39%  
396 4% 33%  
397 3% 29%  
398 5% 26%  
399 2% 21% Last Result
400 4% 19%  
401 2% 15%  
402 3% 13%  
403 2% 10%  
404 1.4% 8%  
405 2% 6%  
406 1.2% 5%  
407 0.6% 4%  
408 0.8% 3%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.2% 1.4%  
412 0.2% 1.2%  
413 0.1% 1.1%  
414 0.1% 0.9%  
415 0.1% 0.8%  
416 0.1% 0.7%  
417 0.1% 0.7%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.5%  
421 0% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0% 0.3%  
424 0% 0.2%  
425 0% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.8%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.1% 99.7%  
369 0.1% 99.7%  
370 0.1% 99.6%  
371 0.1% 99.6%  
372 0.2% 99.4%  
373 0.1% 99.3%  
374 0.2% 99.2%  
375 0.3% 99.0%  
376 0.4% 98.7%  
377 0.5% 98%  
378 0.7% 98%  
379 1.1% 97%  
380 1.0% 96%  
381 1.4% 95%  
382 2% 94%  
383 3% 92%  
384 2% 89%  
385 2% 87%  
386 3% 85%  
387 5% 81%  
388 4% 77%  
389 5% 73%  
390 5% 68%  
391 6% 63%  
392 4% 57% Median
393 6% 53%  
394 6% 47%  
395 4% 40%  
396 6% 37%  
397 4% 31%  
398 3% 27%  
399 4% 24%  
400 4% 19%  
401 3% 15%  
402 3% 12%  
403 2% 10%  
404 2% 8%  
405 1.5% 6%  
406 1.0% 4%  
407 0.9% 3%  
408 0.7% 2%  
409 0.5% 2%  
410 0.3% 1.2%  
411 0.3% 0.8%  
412 0.2% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.4%  
414 0.1% 0.3%  
415 0.1% 0.2%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.2% 99.7%  
328 0.1% 99.5%  
329 0.3% 99.4%  
330 0.6% 99.1%  
331 0.4% 98.6%  
332 0.7% 98%  
333 1.1% 97%  
334 1.2% 96%  
335 1.3% 95%  
336 2% 94%  
337 3% 92%  
338 2% 89%  
339 3% 87%  
340 4% 84% Last Result
341 5% 79%  
342 3% 74%  
343 6% 71%  
344 5% 65%  
345 5% 60%  
346 5% 55% Median
347 5% 50%  
348 6% 45%  
349 5% 39%  
350 4% 34%  
351 5% 30%  
352 3% 25%  
353 4% 22%  
354 2% 18%  
355 4% 16% Majority
356 2% 12%  
357 2% 10%  
358 2% 8%  
359 1.3% 6%  
360 1.0% 5%  
361 0.7% 4%  
362 0.8% 3%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.3% 2%  
365 0.2% 1.4%  
366 0.2% 1.2%  
367 0.1% 0.9%  
368 0.1% 0.8%  
369 0.1% 0.7%  
370 0% 0.6%  
371 0.1% 0.5%  
372 0.1% 0.5%  
373 0% 0.4%  
374 0% 0.3%  
375 0.1% 0.3%  
376 0.1% 0.3%  
377 0% 0.2%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.8%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0% 99.7%  
295 0% 99.7%  
296 0% 99.7%  
297 0% 99.6%  
298 0.1% 99.6%  
299 0.1% 99.5%  
300 0.1% 99.5%  
301 0.1% 99.4%  
302 0.1% 99.3%  
303 0.1% 99.2%  
304 0.1% 99.1%  
305 0.3% 99.0%  
306 0.5% 98.6%  
307 0.5% 98%  
308 0.4% 98%  
309 0.4% 97%  
310 0.7% 97%  
311 1.4% 96%  
312 2% 95%  
313 4% 93%  
314 3% 89%  
315 2% 86%  
316 1.5% 84%  
317 2% 83%  
318 3% 81%  
319 4% 78%  
320 8% 74%  
321 9% 66%  
322 5% 57%  
323 4% 53% Median
324 3% 49%  
325 4% 45%  
326 5% 42% Last Result
327 6% 37%  
328 7% 30%  
329 4% 23%  
330 3% 19%  
331 2% 16%  
332 2% 14%  
333 3% 12%  
334 3% 10%  
335 2% 7%  
336 1.2% 4%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.4% 1.2%  
342 0.3% 0.7%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.8%  
296 0.1% 99.7%  
297 0.2% 99.6%  
298 0.3% 99.5%  
299 0.3% 99.2%  
300 0.5% 98.8%  
301 0.7% 98%  
302 0.9% 98%  
303 1.0% 97%  
304 1.5% 96%  
305 2% 94%  
306 2% 92%  
307 3% 90%  
308 3% 88%  
309 4% 85%  
310 4% 81%  
311 3% 76%  
312 4% 73%  
313 6% 69%  
314 4% 63%  
315 6% 60%  
316 6% 53% Median
317 4% 47%  
318 6% 43%  
319 5% 37%  
320 5% 32%  
321 4% 27%  
322 5% 23%  
323 3% 19%  
324 2% 15%  
325 2% 13%  
326 3% 11%  
327 2% 8%  
328 1.4% 6%  
329 1.0% 5%  
330 1.1% 4%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.5% 2%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.3%  
335 0.2% 1.0%  
336 0.1% 0.8%  
337 0.2% 0.7%  
338 0.1% 0.6%  
339 0.1% 0.4%  
340 0.1% 0.4%  
341 0.1% 0.3%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
268 0% 100%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0.1% 99.7%  
278 0.1% 99.7%  
279 0% 99.6%  
280 0% 99.5%  
281 0% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.1% 99.4%  
284 0% 99.4%  
285 0.1% 99.3%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.2%  
288 0.1% 99.1%  
289 0.2% 99.0%  
290 0.2% 98.8%  
291 0.2% 98.6%  
292 0.7% 98%  
293 0.6% 98%  
294 0.7% 97%  
295 1.0% 96%  
296 1.2% 95%  
297 1.3% 94%  
298 3% 93%  
299 2% 90%  
300 2% 88% Last Result
301 4% 86%  
302 4% 82%  
303 4% 78%  
304 5% 74%  
305 4% 70%  
306 4% 66%  
307 7% 62%  
308 6% 55% Median
309 5% 49%  
310 3% 44%  
311 7% 41%  
312 4% 33%  
313 5% 29%  
314 4% 24%  
315 3% 20%  
316 4% 17%  
317 2% 13%  
318 3% 11%  
319 2% 8%  
320 1.1% 6%  
321 1.0% 5%  
322 1.0% 4%  
323 0.7% 2%  
324 0.5% 2%  
325 0.5% 1.3%  
326 0.2% 0.9%  
327 0.2% 0.6%  
328 0.2% 0.4%  
329 0.1% 0.3%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 99.9%  
241 0.1% 99.9%  
242 0.1% 99.8%  
243 0.1% 99.7%  
244 0.2% 99.5%  
245 0.3% 99.4%  
246 0.4% 99.1%  
247 0.6% 98.6%  
248 1.1% 98%  
249 1.1% 97%  
250 1.0% 96%  
251 2% 95%  
252 2% 93%  
253 3% 91%  
254 4% 88%  
255 2% 84%  
256 4% 82%  
257 4% 78%  
258 5% 74%  
259 5% 68%  
260 5% 63%  
261 3% 59%  
262 7% 55% Median
263 8% 49%  
264 5% 40%  
265 5% 35%  
266 4% 31%  
267 3% 27%  
268 4% 24%  
269 5% 19%  
270 2% 14%  
271 3% 12%  
272 2% 9%  
273 1.3% 7%  
274 1.3% 6%  
275 2% 5%  
276 0.7% 3%  
277 0.6% 2%  
278 0.5% 2%  
279 0.3% 1.4%  
280 0.3% 1.1%  
281 0.2% 0.8%  
282 0.2% 0.6%  
283 0.1% 0.4%  
284 0% 0.3%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
149 0% 100%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.8%  
153 0.1% 99.7%  
154 0.2% 99.6%  
155 0.4% 99.4%  
156 0.6% 99.0%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 0.9% 97%  
159 1.0% 97%  
160 2% 96%  
161 2% 94%  
162 4% 91%  
163 4% 87%  
164 4% 83%  
165 5% 80%  
166 5% 75%  
167 7% 70%  
168 6% 63%  
169 6% 57% Median
170 6% 51%  
171 6% 45%  
172 5% 38%  
173 7% 33%  
174 6% 27%  
175 3% 21%  
176 4% 18%  
177 3% 14%  
178 3% 11%  
179 2% 8%  
180 2% 6%  
181 1.2% 5%  
182 0.7% 3%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.7% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.1%  
186 0.2% 0.8%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 99.9%  
117 0% 99.9%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.8%  
120 0% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.7%  
122 0.1% 99.7%  
123 0% 99.6%  
124 0.1% 99.6%  
125 0.1% 99.5%  
126 0% 99.4%  
127 0% 99.4%  
128 0.1% 99.4%  
129 0% 99.3%  
130 0% 99.3%  
131 0% 99.3%  
132 0% 99.2%  
133 0% 99.2%  
134 0% 99.2%  
135 0% 99.2%  
136 0% 99.2%  
137 0% 99.2%  
138 0% 99.2%  
139 0% 99.2%  
140 0% 99.2%  
141 0% 99.2%  
142 0% 99.2%  
143 0% 99.1%  
144 0.1% 99.1%  
145 0.1% 99.0%  
146 0.2% 98.9%  
147 0.3% 98.8%  
148 0.3% 98%  
149 0.7% 98%  
150 0.9% 97%  
151 1.0% 97%  
152 2% 96%  
153 2% 93%  
154 3% 91%  
155 3% 88%  
156 4% 85%  
157 5% 81%  
158 4% 76%  
159 6% 72%  
160 7% 66%  
161 5% 59% Median
162 5% 54%  
163 9% 48%  
164 5% 40%  
165 5% 34%  
166 7% 29%  
167 4% 23%  
168 5% 19%  
169 4% 14%  
170 2% 11%  
171 2% 9%  
172 2% 6%  
173 1.2% 4%  
174 0.9% 3%  
175 0.8% 2%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.0%  
178 0.3% 0.7%  
179 0.2% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations