Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 20–23 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.8–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.3–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 211 202–220 199–223 197–226 192–230
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 131 124–140 123–143 120–145 116–148
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 117 110–125 107–127 105–129 102–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 77–90 75–92 73–93 70–97
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 55–67 53–68 52–69 49–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 52 48–58 46–59 45–62 42–65
Die Linke 69 53 47–58 46–60 45–61 43–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.8%  
192 0.2% 99.7%  
193 0.3% 99.5%  
194 0.4% 99.2%  
195 0.6% 98.8%  
196 0.7% 98%  
197 0.9% 98%  
198 1.2% 97%  
199 1.1% 95%  
200 2% 94% Last Result
201 2% 92%  
202 2% 90%  
203 3% 88%  
204 3% 85%  
205 5% 82%  
206 4% 77%  
207 5% 73%  
208 5% 67%  
209 6% 63%  
210 6% 57%  
211 4% 51% Median
212 5% 47%  
213 4% 42%  
214 5% 38%  
215 4% 32%  
216 5% 28%  
217 4% 23%  
218 3% 19%  
219 4% 16%  
220 2% 12%  
221 2% 10%  
222 2% 8%  
223 2% 6%  
224 1.3% 5%  
225 0.6% 3%  
226 0.7% 3%  
227 0.5% 2%  
228 0.4% 1.4%  
229 0.3% 0.9%  
230 0.2% 0.7%  
231 0.2% 0.5%  
232 0.1% 0.3%  
233 0.1% 0.2%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0.1% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.7%  
116 0.2% 99.6%  
117 0.3% 99.4%  
118 0.4% 99.1%  
119 0.5% 98.6%  
120 0.8% 98%  
121 0.9% 97%  
122 1.3% 96%  
123 2% 95%  
124 3% 93%  
125 3% 90%  
126 4% 87%  
127 6% 83%  
128 9% 77%  
129 6% 68%  
130 6% 62%  
131 10% 56% Median
132 6% 45%  
133 6% 39%  
134 6% 33%  
135 6% 28%  
136 3% 22%  
137 3% 19%  
138 3% 16%  
139 2% 13%  
140 2% 11%  
141 2% 9%  
142 2% 7%  
143 1.2% 5%  
144 1.3% 4%  
145 1.0% 3%  
146 0.6% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.3%  
148 0.4% 0.9%  
149 0.2% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.4% 99.3%  
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 1.3% 97%  
107 1.3% 96%  
108 2% 95%  
109 2% 93%  
110 3% 90%  
111 4% 87%  
112 4% 83%  
113 4% 79%  
114 7% 75%  
115 7% 67%  
116 4% 60%  
117 7% 56% Median
118 8% 49%  
119 9% 40%  
120 4% 31%  
121 5% 27%  
122 5% 22%  
123 3% 16%  
124 4% 14%  
125 3% 10%  
126 2% 7%  
127 2% 6%  
128 2% 4%  
129 0.9% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.4% 1.2%  
132 0.2% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.6%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 99.5%  
72 0.6% 98.9%  
73 1.2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 4% 94%  
77 3% 90%  
78 6% 87%  
79 5% 82%  
80 6% 76%  
81 8% 71%  
82 7% 63%  
83 9% 56% Median
84 7% 46%  
85 6% 40%  
86 9% 34%  
87 4% 25%  
88 7% 21%  
89 3% 14%  
90 3% 11%  
91 2% 7%  
92 1.5% 5%  
93 1.3% 4%  
94 0.7% 2% Last Result
95 0.6% 1.5%  
96 0.3% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.5%  
51 0.9% 99.0%  
52 2% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 4% 91%  
56 6% 87%  
57 6% 81%  
58 9% 74%  
59 8% 65%  
60 9% 57% Median
61 8% 48%  
62 8% 40%  
63 8% 32%  
64 6% 24%  
65 5% 18%  
66 4% 14%  
67 4% 10%  
68 3% 6%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 0% 98.7%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 5% 97%  
47 0.2% 92%  
48 4% 91%  
49 15% 88%  
50 2% 73%  
51 3% 71%  
52 22% 68% Median
53 4% 46%  
54 1.0% 41%  
55 18% 40%  
56 6% 23%  
57 0.4% 17%  
58 7% 17%  
59 5% 10%  
60 0.1% 5%  
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.1% 0.9%  
64 0.3% 0.9%  
65 0.4% 0.6%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.5%  
44 1.1% 99.0%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 6% 90%  
49 6% 84%  
50 7% 78%  
51 9% 70%  
52 8% 62%  
53 10% 54% Median
54 9% 44%  
55 7% 35%  
56 9% 27%  
57 6% 19%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.7% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 511–529 509–532 506–534 502–538
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 447–466 445–469 442–472 436–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 441 100% 431–452 429–454 426–456 421–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 407 100% 397–417 394–421 392–423 387–428
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 403 100% 394–413 391–417 388–420 382–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 389 100% 378–399 375–402 373–404 368–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 354 49% 345–365 341–368 339–371 334–375
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 324 0% 314–335 311–338 308–340 304–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 302 0% 292–312 288–315 286–317 281–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 302 0% 291–312 289–315 286–317 281–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 239–259 236–262 234–264 230–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 170 0% 161–179 159–181 157–183 152–188
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 170 0% 161–179 159–181 157–183 152–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 99.9%  
498 0% 99.9%  
499 0.1% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.8%  
501 0.1% 99.7%  
502 0.2% 99.5%  
503 0.3% 99.3%  
504 0.3% 99.0%  
505 0.9% 98.7%  
506 0.5% 98%  
507 1.3% 97%  
508 0.9% 96%  
509 2% 95%  
510 1.3% 93%  
511 3% 92%  
512 2% 89%  
513 4% 87%  
514 4% 82%  
515 4% 79%  
516 6% 75%  
517 4% 69%  
518 7% 65%  
519 4% 58% Median
520 7% 54%  
521 5% 48%  
522 8% 43%  
523 4% 35%  
524 6% 32%  
525 4% 26%  
526 4% 22%  
527 3% 18%  
528 4% 15%  
529 2% 11%  
530 2% 10%  
531 2% 7%  
532 1.4% 5%  
533 1.2% 4%  
534 0.6% 3%  
535 0.9% 2%  
536 0.3% 1.4%  
537 0.4% 1.1%  
538 0.2% 0.7%  
539 0.2% 0.5%  
540 0.1% 0.3%  
541 0.1% 0.2%  
542 0.1% 0.1%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.9%  
434 0.1% 99.8%  
435 0.1% 99.7%  
436 0.2% 99.5%  
437 0.2% 99.3%  
438 0.3% 99.1%  
439 0.4% 98.8%  
440 0.4% 98%  
441 0.5% 98%  
442 0.8% 98%  
443 0.8% 97%  
444 1.0% 96%  
445 2% 95%  
446 2% 93%  
447 2% 91%  
448 3% 89%  
449 4% 86%  
450 4% 83%  
451 7% 79%  
452 5% 72%  
453 7% 67%  
454 6% 61% Median
455 5% 54%  
456 6% 50%  
457 6% 43%  
458 5% 38%  
459 5% 33%  
460 3% 28%  
461 4% 24%  
462 2% 21%  
463 3% 18%  
464 2% 15%  
465 3% 13%  
466 1.4% 10%  
467 2% 9%  
468 1.4% 7%  
469 1.5% 6%  
470 1.0% 5%  
471 0.8% 4%  
472 0.8% 3%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.5% 1.4%  
475 0.3% 0.9%  
476 0.2% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.4%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0.1% 99.9%  
419 0.1% 99.8%  
420 0.1% 99.7%  
421 0.3% 99.6%  
422 0.3% 99.3%  
423 0.3% 99.1%  
424 0.4% 98.7%  
425 0.4% 98%  
426 0.9% 98%  
427 1.0% 97%  
428 0.9% 96%  
429 2% 95%  
430 2% 93%  
431 2% 91%  
432 2% 89%  
433 2% 87%  
434 2% 84%  
435 4% 82%  
436 4% 78%  
437 5% 74%  
438 4% 69%  
439 6% 64%  
440 4% 58% Median
441 5% 54%  
442 4% 49%  
443 5% 45%  
444 5% 40%  
445 4% 35%  
446 5% 31%  
447 5% 26%  
448 3% 21%  
449 3% 17%  
450 2% 14%  
451 2% 13%  
452 3% 10%  
453 2% 8%  
454 2% 6%  
455 1.1% 4%  
456 0.8% 3%  
457 0.5% 2%  
458 0.5% 2%  
459 0.3% 1.3%  
460 0.3% 1.0%  
461 0.3% 0.7%  
462 0.1% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.7%  
387 0.2% 99.5%  
388 0.2% 99.3%  
389 0.3% 99.1%  
390 0.5% 98.8%  
391 0.6% 98%  
392 1.0% 98%  
393 0.8% 97%  
394 1.0% 96%  
395 2% 95%  
396 2% 93%  
397 2% 91%  
398 2% 89%  
399 2% 87%  
400 3% 85%  
401 4% 82%  
402 5% 78%  
403 3% 73%  
404 5% 70%  
405 5% 65%  
406 6% 60% Median
407 5% 54%  
408 5% 49%  
409 4% 44%  
410 5% 40%  
411 5% 36%  
412 5% 31%  
413 4% 26%  
414 3% 22%  
415 3% 19%  
416 4% 16%  
417 3% 12%  
418 2% 10%  
419 1.0% 8%  
420 1.3% 7% Last Result
421 1.3% 5%  
422 1.2% 4%  
423 0.6% 3%  
424 0.6% 2%  
425 0.5% 2%  
426 0.3% 1.2%  
427 0.3% 0.8%  
428 0.1% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.4%  
430 0.1% 0.3%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.7%  
383 0.1% 99.5%  
384 0.3% 99.4%  
385 0.3% 99.1%  
386 0.4% 98.8%  
387 0.5% 98%  
388 0.6% 98%  
389 0.7% 97%  
390 1.3% 97%  
391 1.1% 95%  
392 2% 94%  
393 1.4% 93%  
394 3% 91%  
395 3% 89%  
396 4% 86%  
397 4% 82%  
398 6% 78%  
399 6% 72%  
400 5% 66%  
401 4% 61%  
402 6% 56% Median
403 4% 50%  
404 7% 46%  
405 4% 39%  
406 5% 35%  
407 3% 30%  
408 4% 27%  
409 3% 22%  
410 3% 19%  
411 3% 16%  
412 2% 13%  
413 2% 11%  
414 2% 10%  
415 1.4% 8%  
416 1.1% 7%  
417 1.3% 5%  
418 0.8% 4%  
419 0.7% 3%  
420 0.7% 3%  
421 0.6% 2%  
422 0.4% 1.3%  
423 0.4% 1.0%  
424 0.2% 0.5%  
425 0.2% 0.4%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.3% 99.3%  
370 0.4% 99.1%  
371 0.4% 98.7%  
372 0.6% 98%  
373 0.7% 98%  
374 1.0% 97%  
375 1.3% 96%  
376 1.4% 95%  
377 2% 93%  
378 3% 92%  
379 2% 89%  
380 3% 87%  
381 3% 84%  
382 5% 82%  
383 3% 77%  
384 5% 74%  
385 5% 69%  
386 5% 64%  
387 6% 60%  
388 3% 54% Median
389 6% 50%  
390 4% 45%  
391 4% 41%  
392 6% 37%  
393 4% 31%  
394 5% 27%  
395 4% 22%  
396 3% 19%  
397 3% 16%  
398 2% 13%  
399 2% 11% Last Result
400 2% 9%  
401 1.2% 6%  
402 1.2% 5%  
403 1.2% 4%  
404 0.5% 3%  
405 0.5% 2%  
406 0.5% 2%  
407 0.3% 1.2%  
408 0.2% 0.9%  
409 0.2% 0.7%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 99.9%  
330 0.1% 99.9%  
331 0.1% 99.9%  
332 0.1% 99.8%  
333 0.1% 99.7%  
334 0.2% 99.6%  
335 0.4% 99.4%  
336 0.2% 99.0%  
337 0.5% 98.8%  
338 0.7% 98%  
339 0.6% 98%  
340 0.8% 97% Last Result
341 1.5% 96%  
342 1.0% 95%  
343 2% 94%  
344 1.3% 92%  
345 4% 90%  
346 3% 86%  
347 2% 84%  
348 4% 82%  
349 4% 78%  
350 4% 74%  
351 4% 70%  
352 4% 66%  
353 6% 61%  
354 6% 55% Median
355 5% 49% Majority
356 4% 45%  
357 5% 41%  
358 5% 36%  
359 4% 31%  
360 3% 27%  
361 3% 23%  
362 3% 20%  
363 2% 17%  
364 5% 15%  
365 1.5% 10%  
366 2% 9%  
367 2% 7%  
368 0.7% 6%  
369 2% 5%  
370 0.7% 3%  
371 0.6% 3%  
372 0.6% 2%  
373 0.5% 1.4%  
374 0.3% 0.9%  
375 0.2% 0.6%  
376 0.1% 0.5%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0.1% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.1%  
380 0% 0.1%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.3% 99.4%  
306 0.3% 99.0%  
307 0.6% 98.7%  
308 0.7% 98%  
309 0.9% 97%  
310 0.9% 97%  
311 1.4% 96%  
312 1.5% 94%  
313 2% 93%  
314 3% 91%  
315 2% 88%  
316 3% 86%  
317 3% 83%  
318 3% 80%  
319 5% 77%  
320 5% 72%  
321 5% 68%  
322 4% 62%  
323 5% 58% Median
324 4% 53%  
325 5% 49%  
326 5% 44% Last Result
327 4% 39%  
328 5% 35%  
329 5% 31%  
330 5% 26%  
331 2% 21%  
332 4% 19%  
333 2% 15%  
334 2% 13%  
335 3% 11%  
336 1.3% 8%  
337 1.5% 6%  
338 0.9% 5%  
339 1.3% 4%  
340 0.8% 3%  
341 0.5% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.5%  
343 0.3% 1.2%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0.1% 99.6%  
282 0.3% 99.5%  
283 0.3% 99.2%  
284 0.5% 98.8%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.6% 98%  
287 1.2% 97%  
288 1.3% 96%  
289 1.3% 95% Last Result
290 1.0% 93%  
291 2% 92%  
292 3% 90%  
293 4% 88%  
294 3% 84%  
295 3% 81%  
296 4% 78%  
297 5% 74%  
298 5% 69%  
299 5% 64%  
300 4% 60%  
301 5% 56% Median
302 5% 51%  
303 6% 46%  
304 5% 40%  
305 5% 35%  
306 3% 30%  
307 5% 27%  
308 4% 22%  
309 3% 18%  
310 2% 15%  
311 2% 13%  
312 2% 11%  
313 2% 9%  
314 2% 7%  
315 1.0% 5%  
316 0.8% 4%  
317 1.0% 3%  
318 0.6% 2%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.2%  
321 0.2% 0.9%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.2% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.2% 99.7%  
282 0.4% 99.4%  
283 0.2% 99.1%  
284 0.4% 98.8%  
285 0.6% 98%  
286 0.7% 98%  
287 1.2% 97%  
288 0.9% 96%  
289 2% 95%  
290 1.4% 93%  
291 3% 92%  
292 2% 89%  
293 2% 87%  
294 4% 85%  
295 4% 81%  
296 4% 77%  
297 3% 73%  
298 4% 69%  
299 4% 65%  
300 6% 61% Last Result, Median
301 5% 55%  
302 7% 50%  
303 3% 44%  
304 5% 40%  
305 4% 35%  
306 4% 31%  
307 5% 27%  
308 3% 22%  
309 5% 19%  
310 2% 15%  
311 2% 13%  
312 2% 11%  
313 1.1% 8%  
314 2% 7%  
315 1.3% 5%  
316 1.1% 4%  
317 0.8% 3%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.4% 1.3%  
321 0.3% 0.9%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.8%  
229 0.2% 99.7%  
230 0.2% 99.5%  
231 0.3% 99.3%  
232 0.6% 99.0%  
233 0.9% 98%  
234 1.2% 98%  
235 1.0% 96%  
236 1.2% 95%  
237 1.1% 94%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 2% 89%  
241 4% 87%  
242 5% 83%  
243 4% 78%  
244 4% 73%  
245 4% 69%  
246 3% 65%  
247 4% 62%  
248 5% 57% Median
249 6% 52%  
250 7% 47%  
251 5% 40%  
252 6% 34%  
253 5% 29%  
254 3% 24%  
255 3% 21%  
256 3% 18%  
257 2% 16%  
258 2% 14%  
259 3% 11%  
260 2% 9%  
261 2% 7%  
262 1.3% 5%  
263 1.1% 4%  
264 0.7% 3%  
265 0.4% 2%  
266 0.4% 2%  
267 0.3% 1.2%  
268 0.3% 0.9%  
269 0.2% 0.6%  
270 0.1% 0.4%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.6%  
153 0.2% 99.5%  
154 0.5% 99.3%  
155 0.3% 98.8%  
156 0.9% 98%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 2% 97%  
159 2% 95%  
160 2% 93%  
161 3% 92%  
162 2% 89%  
163 3% 87%  
164 2% 83%  
165 6% 81%  
166 5% 75%  
167 6% 70%  
168 6% 64%  
169 6% 58%  
170 6% 52% Median
171 4% 47%  
172 8% 43%  
173 6% 35%  
174 5% 29%  
175 5% 23%  
176 2% 18%  
177 3% 16%  
178 1.4% 13%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 9%  
181 2% 6%  
182 1.4% 4%  
183 0.6% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.3%  
187 0.3% 0.8%  
188 0.2% 0.6%  
189 0.2% 0.3%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.4% 99.5%  
154 0.2% 99.0%  
155 0.5% 98.8%  
156 0.6% 98%  
157 0.8% 98%  
158 2% 97%  
159 1.5% 95%  
160 3% 94%  
161 3% 91%  
162 2% 88%  
163 3% 86%  
164 4% 83%  
165 3% 80%  
166 7% 76%  
167 7% 69%  
168 5% 62%  
169 5% 57% Median
170 4% 52%  
171 6% 48%  
172 6% 42%  
173 7% 36%  
174 6% 30%  
175 5% 24%  
176 3% 19%  
177 2% 16%  
178 2% 14%  
179 3% 11%  
180 2% 8%  
181 2% 6%  
182 1.4% 4%  
183 0.8% 3%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.4% 2%  
186 0.4% 1.3%  
187 0.3% 0.9%  
188 0.2% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations