Opinion Poll by YouGov, 19–23 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.7–31.6% 28.3–32.0% 27.9–32.4% 27.2–33.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.6% 16.2–20.0% 15.7–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.4–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.0% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.2–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 6.0–8.0% 5.8–8.3% 5.4–8.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 5.0–7.3% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 225 213–236 210–239 208–243 203–249
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 125–144 123–146 121–149 117–154
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 103–121 101–123 100–126 96–131
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 68–82 66–84 64–86 61–90
Die Linke 69 68 61–74 59–76 58–78 55–82
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 46–58 45–60 43–62 41–65
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 39–51 38–53 0–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
197 0% 100%  
198 0% 99.9%  
199 0.1% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.1% 99.7%  
203 0.2% 99.6%  
204 0.3% 99.4%  
205 0.4% 99.1%  
206 0.6% 98.7%  
207 0.5% 98%  
208 0.9% 98%  
209 0.8% 97%  
210 1.3% 96%  
211 1.2% 95%  
212 2% 93%  
213 2% 91%  
214 2% 90%  
215 2% 87%  
216 3% 85%  
217 3% 82%  
218 3% 79%  
219 5% 76%  
220 3% 71%  
221 4% 68%  
222 4% 63%  
223 5% 59%  
224 4% 55%  
225 6% 51% Median
226 5% 45%  
227 6% 39%  
228 4% 33%  
229 3% 29%  
230 4% 26%  
231 3% 22%  
232 2% 19%  
233 3% 17%  
234 2% 14%  
235 2% 12%  
236 2% 10%  
237 1.1% 8%  
238 1.2% 7%  
239 1.1% 6%  
240 0.9% 5%  
241 0.7% 4%  
242 0.5% 3%  
243 0.6% 3%  
244 0.5% 2%  
245 0.4% 2%  
246 0.3% 1.2%  
247 0.2% 0.9%  
248 0.2% 0.7%  
249 0.1% 0.5%  
250 0.1% 0.5%  
251 0.1% 0.4%  
252 0% 0.3%  
253 0.1% 0.3%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.2%  
256 0.1% 0.2%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.8%  
116 0.2% 99.7%  
117 0.3% 99.6%  
118 0.4% 99.3%  
119 0.5% 98.9%  
120 0.8% 98%  
121 0.9% 98%  
122 1.2% 97%  
123 2% 96%  
124 2% 94%  
125 2% 92%  
126 3% 90%  
127 3% 87%  
128 5% 84%  
129 4% 79%  
130 4% 75%  
131 5% 71%  
132 5% 66%  
133 7% 61%  
134 6% 55% Median
135 6% 49%  
136 5% 43%  
137 5% 38%  
138 4% 33%  
139 6% 29%  
140 4% 23%  
141 3% 19%  
142 3% 16%  
143 2% 13%  
144 2% 11%  
145 2% 8%  
146 1.5% 6%  
147 1.1% 5%  
148 0.9% 4%  
149 0.5% 3%  
150 0.7% 2%  
151 0.5% 2%  
152 0.2% 1.2%  
153 0.3% 0.9%  
154 0.2% 0.6%  
155 0.1% 0.4%  
156 0.1% 0.3%  
157 0.1% 0.2%  
158 0.1% 0.2%  
159 0% 0.1%  
160 0% 0.1%  
161 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.2% 99.5%  
97 0.4% 99.3%  
98 0.5% 98.9%  
99 0.9% 98%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 2% 95%  
103 3% 92%  
104 3% 89%  
105 3% 86%  
106 4% 83%  
107 4% 80%  
108 4% 75%  
109 4% 71%  
110 8% 66%  
111 6% 59%  
112 5% 52% Median
113 5% 47%  
114 8% 42%  
115 5% 34%  
116 4% 29%  
117 3% 25%  
118 3% 21%  
119 4% 18%  
120 3% 15%  
121 2% 12%  
122 2% 10%  
123 2% 7%  
124 1.3% 5%  
125 0.9% 4%  
126 0.7% 3%  
127 0.7% 2%  
128 0.4% 1.3%  
129 0.2% 0.9%  
130 0.2% 0.7%  
131 0.2% 0.5%  
132 0.1% 0.4%  
133 0.1% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.4%  
63 0.6% 98.9%  
64 1.1% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 94%  
68 5% 91%  
69 4% 86%  
70 5% 82%  
71 6% 77%  
72 8% 71%  
73 7% 64%  
74 7% 57%  
75 6% 50% Median
76 6% 44%  
77 8% 38%  
78 5% 30%  
79 6% 25%  
80 4% 19%  
81 3% 15%  
82 4% 12%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.3% 4%  
86 0.8% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.5%  
89 0.3% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 99.1%  
57 0.9% 98.6%  
58 1.5% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 3% 94%  
61 3% 91%  
62 5% 87%  
63 7% 82%  
64 6% 76%  
65 5% 70%  
66 7% 65%  
67 7% 58%  
68 8% 50% Median
69 8% 42% Last Result
70 7% 35%  
71 6% 28%  
72 5% 21%  
73 4% 16%  
74 3% 12%  
75 2% 9%  
76 2% 7%  
77 1.3% 5%  
78 1.1% 3%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.6% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.0%  
43 2% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 3% 95%  
46 4% 92% Last Result
47 6% 88%  
48 6% 82%  
49 6% 76%  
50 10% 70%  
51 6% 60%  
52 10% 54% Median
53 8% 44%  
54 8% 36%  
55 6% 28%  
56 7% 22%  
57 4% 16%  
58 4% 12%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.8% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.1%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0.3% 96%  
38 3% 96%  
39 5% 93%  
40 4% 88%  
41 5% 84%  
42 6% 79%  
43 7% 73%  
44 8% 66%  
45 11% 58% Median
46 11% 47%  
47 10% 35%  
48 7% 26%  
49 5% 19%  
50 4% 14%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 522 100% 512–533 509–538 506–554 501–565
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 455 100% 443–466 439–469 435–472 428–477
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 433 100% 421–444 416–447 413–450 405–455
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 410 100% 399–423 396–428 393–434 387–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 395 99.9% 383–407 379–410 374–413 364–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 388 100% 376–401 373–405 370–411 365–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 351 33% 339–363 335–368 333–373 328–385
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 321 0% 308–332 303–336 297–338 284–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 314 0.1% 302–326 299–330 296–335 291–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 291 0% 278–302 273–306 267–309 253–315
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 235–258 232–263 229–266 225–273
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 179 0% 169–190 167–193 165–196 160–203
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 157 0% 146–167 141–169 124–172 113–177

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 99.9%  
497 0% 99.9%  
498 0.1% 99.9%  
499 0% 99.8%  
500 0.1% 99.7%  
501 0.1% 99.6%  
502 0.3% 99.5%  
503 0.2% 99.2%  
504 0.6% 99.0%  
505 0.5% 98%  
506 0.8% 98%  
507 0.6% 97%  
508 0.8% 97%  
509 1.4% 96%  
510 2% 94%  
511 2% 92%  
512 2% 91%  
513 3% 88%  
514 3% 85%  
515 3% 83%  
516 2% 80%  
517 3% 78%  
518 6% 75%  
519 7% 69%  
520 5% 61%  
521 3% 57%  
522 6% 54%  
523 5% 48% Median
524 4% 43%  
525 5% 39%  
526 5% 35%  
527 4% 30%  
528 4% 25%  
529 2% 21%  
530 2% 19%  
531 3% 16%  
532 3% 14%  
533 1.5% 11%  
534 2% 10%  
535 1.3% 8%  
536 1.0% 7%  
537 0.5% 6%  
538 0.3% 5%  
539 0.5% 5%  
540 0.4% 4%  
541 0.2% 4%  
542 0.1% 4%  
543 0.1% 4%  
544 0.1% 4%  
545 0.1% 3%  
546 0% 3%  
547 0.1% 3%  
548 0.1% 3%  
549 0.1% 3%  
550 0.1% 3%  
551 0.1% 3%  
552 0.1% 3%  
553 0.2% 3%  
554 0.2% 3%  
555 0.3% 2%  
556 0.3% 2%  
557 0.2% 2%  
558 0.1% 2%  
559 0.2% 1.4%  
560 0.2% 1.3%  
561 0.1% 1.1%  
562 0.1% 1.0%  
563 0.1% 0.9%  
564 0.3% 0.8%  
565 0.1% 0.6%  
566 0.1% 0.5%  
567 0% 0.4%  
568 0.1% 0.3%  
569 0.1% 0.3%  
570 0% 0.2%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0.1%  
574 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0% 99.8%  
425 0.1% 99.8%  
426 0.1% 99.7%  
427 0.1% 99.6%  
428 0.1% 99.5%  
429 0.2% 99.4%  
430 0.1% 99.2%  
431 0.3% 99.1%  
432 0.2% 98.8%  
433 0.3% 98.6%  
434 0.3% 98%  
435 0.5% 98%  
436 0.6% 97%  
437 0.7% 97%  
438 0.9% 96%  
439 1.0% 95%  
440 1.1% 94%  
441 1.2% 93%  
442 2% 92%  
443 1.2% 90%  
444 2% 89%  
445 2% 87%  
446 2% 84%  
447 2% 82%  
448 3% 80%  
449 3% 77%  
450 4% 74%  
451 5% 71%  
452 5% 66%  
453 5% 61%  
454 6% 56%  
455 3% 51%  
456 5% 48% Median
457 3% 43%  
458 4% 40%  
459 4% 36%  
460 5% 32%  
461 4% 27%  
462 4% 23%  
463 3% 19%  
464 3% 15%  
465 2% 13%  
466 2% 10%  
467 2% 9%  
468 1.3% 7%  
469 1.3% 6%  
470 1.2% 4%  
471 0.6% 3%  
472 0.6% 3%  
473 0.5% 2%  
474 0.4% 2%  
475 0.3% 1.1%  
476 0.3% 0.8%  
477 0.2% 0.6%  
478 0.2% 0.4%  
479 0.1% 0.2%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0% 99.6%  
404 0.1% 99.6%  
405 0.1% 99.5%  
406 0.3% 99.4%  
407 0.1% 99.2%  
408 0.1% 99.1%  
409 0.3% 98.9%  
410 0.4% 98.7%  
411 0.4% 98%  
412 0.3% 98%  
413 0.5% 98%  
414 0.7% 97%  
415 0.5% 96%  
416 1.0% 96%  
417 0.9% 95%  
418 1.4% 94%  
419 1.2% 93%  
420 1.4% 91%  
421 1.5% 90%  
422 3% 89%  
423 2% 86%  
424 2% 84%  
425 3% 81%  
426 3% 78%  
427 4% 75%  
428 3% 71%  
429 2% 67%  
430 6% 65%  
431 4% 59%  
432 4% 55%  
433 4% 51%  
434 5% 46% Median
435 5% 41%  
436 4% 37%  
437 4% 33%  
438 4% 29%  
439 3% 25%  
440 5% 23%  
441 2% 18%  
442 3% 16%  
443 2% 13%  
444 3% 11%  
445 1.3% 8%  
446 1.5% 7%  
447 1.2% 6%  
448 1.4% 5%  
449 0.4% 3%  
450 0.6% 3%  
451 0.4% 2%  
452 0.7% 2%  
453 0.2% 1.0%  
454 0.2% 0.8%  
455 0.1% 0.6%  
456 0.2% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0.1% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.6%  
388 0.2% 99.5%  
389 0.3% 99.3%  
390 0.4% 99.0%  
391 0.4% 98.6%  
392 0.6% 98%  
393 0.7% 98%  
394 0.9% 97%  
395 0.9% 96%  
396 1.2% 95%  
397 1.4% 94%  
398 2% 93%  
399 2% 90%  
400 2% 88%  
401 3% 86%  
402 2% 83%  
403 4% 81%  
404 3% 78%  
405 4% 75%  
406 4% 71%  
407 4% 66%  
408 5% 62%  
409 4% 57%  
410 5% 53%  
411 5% 49% Median
412 3% 44%  
413 5% 41%  
414 4% 36%  
415 4% 32%  
416 3% 28%  
417 3% 25%  
418 2% 22%  
419 3% 20%  
420 2% 17%  
421 2% 15%  
422 2% 12%  
423 2% 11%  
424 1.0% 9%  
425 1.1% 8%  
426 0.8% 7%  
427 0.6% 6%  
428 0.7% 5%  
429 0.5% 5%  
430 0.4% 4%  
431 0.3% 4%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.3% 3%  
434 0.2% 3%  
435 0.3% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.2% 2%  
438 0.3% 2%  
439 0.2% 1.4%  
440 0.2% 1.3%  
441 0.2% 1.1%  
442 0.1% 0.9%  
443 0% 0.8%  
444 0.1% 0.7%  
445 0.1% 0.7%  
446 0.1% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.5%  
448 0.1% 0.5%  
449 0.1% 0.4%  
450 0.1% 0.4%  
451 0.1% 0.3%  
452 0.1% 0.2%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.9%  
360 0.1% 99.8%  
361 0.1% 99.7%  
362 0% 99.7%  
363 0.1% 99.6%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.1% 99.4%  
366 0.1% 99.3%  
367 0.1% 99.3%  
368 0.2% 99.2%  
369 0.1% 99.0%  
370 0.2% 98.8%  
371 0.2% 98.6%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.3% 98%  
374 0.4% 98%  
375 0.4% 97%  
376 0.5% 97%  
377 0.8% 96%  
378 0.6% 96%  
379 0.8% 95%  
380 1.3% 94%  
381 1.2% 93%  
382 1.1% 92%  
383 2% 91%  
384 2% 89%  
385 2% 87%  
386 2% 85%  
387 3% 83%  
388 2% 79%  
389 3% 77%  
390 4% 74%  
391 3% 70%  
392 6% 67%  
393 3% 61%  
394 4% 58%  
395 5% 54%  
396 4% 49%  
397 4% 46% Median
398 5% 41%  
399 5% 36%  
400 3% 31%  
401 4% 28%  
402 4% 24%  
403 2% 20%  
404 3% 18%  
405 2% 15%  
406 2% 12%  
407 2% 11%  
408 1.2% 8%  
409 1.4% 7%  
410 1.3% 6%  
411 1.0% 5%  
412 0.7% 4%  
413 0.6% 3%  
414 0.7% 2%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.2%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.2% 99.3%  
367 0.3% 99.2%  
368 0.4% 98.9%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.6% 98%  
371 0.8% 97%  
372 0.8% 96%  
373 0.8% 96%  
374 2% 95%  
375 2% 93%  
376 2% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 2% 87%  
379 3% 86%  
380 3% 83%  
381 4% 79%  
382 3% 75%  
383 3% 72%  
384 3% 69%  
385 5% 66%  
386 5% 61%  
387 4% 56%  
388 4% 52%  
389 3% 48% Median
390 5% 44%  
391 4% 40%  
392 4% 35%  
393 4% 32%  
394 3% 28%  
395 2% 24%  
396 4% 22%  
397 3% 18%  
398 2% 15%  
399 2% 13% Last Result
400 1.1% 12%  
401 2% 11%  
402 1.2% 9%  
403 1.1% 8%  
404 0.7% 6%  
405 0.8% 6%  
406 0.6% 5%  
407 0.4% 4%  
408 0.4% 4%  
409 0.4% 4%  
410 0.3% 3%  
411 0.3% 3%  
412 0.2% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.2% 2%  
415 0.2% 2%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.2% 2%  
418 0.2% 1.3%  
419 0.1% 1.2%  
420 0.1% 1.1%  
421 0.1% 1.0%  
422 0.1% 0.8%  
423 0.1% 0.7%  
424 0.2% 0.7%  
425 0.1% 0.4%  
426 0% 0.3%  
427 0% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.8%  
326 0.1% 99.7%  
327 0.1% 99.6%  
328 0.3% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.2%  
330 0.3% 99.0%  
331 0.5% 98.7%  
332 0.6% 98%  
333 0.5% 98%  
334 0.9% 97%  
335 1.4% 96%  
336 0.9% 95%  
337 2% 94%  
338 2% 92%  
339 1.4% 91%  
340 3% 89% Last Result
341 2% 87%  
342 2% 85%  
343 4% 83%  
344 4% 79%  
345 4% 75%  
346 4% 72%  
347 5% 68%  
348 5% 63%  
349 3% 58%  
350 4% 55%  
351 4% 51%  
352 7% 48% Median
353 3% 41%  
354 5% 38%  
355 4% 33% Majority
356 3% 29%  
357 3% 26%  
358 3% 23%  
359 3% 20%  
360 3% 17%  
361 2% 15%  
362 2% 13%  
363 2% 11%  
364 2% 10%  
365 0.9% 8%  
366 0.8% 7%  
367 1.0% 6%  
368 0.8% 5%  
369 0.5% 5%  
370 0.4% 4%  
371 0.5% 4%  
372 0.5% 3%  
373 0.3% 3%  
374 0.3% 2%  
375 0.2% 2%  
376 0.2% 2%  
377 0.2% 2%  
378 0.1% 1.3%  
379 0.1% 1.2%  
380 0.3% 1.1%  
381 0.1% 0.9%  
382 0.1% 0.8%  
383 0% 0.7%  
384 0.1% 0.7%  
385 0.1% 0.6%  
386 0.2% 0.5%  
387 0.1% 0.3%  
388 0.1% 0.3%  
389 0% 0.2%  
390 0.1% 0.2%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0% 99.4%  
286 0.1% 99.4%  
287 0.1% 99.3%  
288 0.2% 99.2%  
289 0.1% 99.0%  
290 0.1% 98.9%  
291 0.1% 98.8%  
292 0.2% 98.7%  
293 0.2% 98%  
294 0.1% 98%  
295 0.1% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.2% 97%  
299 0.3% 97%  
300 0.4% 97%  
301 0.6% 97%  
302 0.6% 96%  
303 0.5% 95%  
304 1.1% 95%  
305 0.7% 94%  
306 1.2% 93%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 90%  
309 1.3% 89%  
310 2% 87%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 83%  
313 2% 81%  
314 3% 78%  
315 4% 75%  
316 2% 71%  
317 4% 68%  
318 3% 64%  
319 4% 61%  
320 5% 57%  
321 5% 52%  
322 5% 47% Median
323 5% 42%  
324 5% 37%  
325 4% 33%  
326 4% 29% Last Result
327 3% 25%  
328 3% 22%  
329 3% 19%  
330 2% 16%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 12%  
333 1.4% 9%  
334 1.4% 8%  
335 1.4% 7%  
336 1.1% 5%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 0.9% 3%  
339 0.7% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.5% 1.5%  
342 0.2% 1.0%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.1% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.5%  
292 0.2% 99.4%  
293 0.4% 99.2%  
294 0.4% 98.8%  
295 0.7% 98%  
296 0.6% 98%  
297 0.7% 97%  
298 1.0% 96%  
299 1.3% 95%  
300 1.4% 94%  
301 1.2% 93%  
302 2% 92%  
303 2% 89%  
304 2% 88%  
305 3% 85%  
306 2% 82%  
307 4% 80%  
308 4% 76%  
309 3% 72%  
310 5% 69%  
311 5% 64%  
312 4% 59%  
313 4% 54%  
314 5% 51% Median
315 4% 46%  
316 3% 42%  
317 6% 39%  
318 3% 33%  
319 4% 30%  
320 3% 26%  
321 2% 23%  
322 3% 21%  
323 2% 17%  
324 2% 15%  
325 2% 13%  
326 2% 11%  
327 1.1% 9%  
328 1.2% 8%  
329 1.3% 7%  
330 0.8% 6%  
331 0.6% 5%  
332 0.8% 4%  
333 0.5% 4%  
334 0.4% 3%  
335 0.4% 3%  
336 0.3% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.2% 2%  
339 0.2% 1.4%  
340 0.1% 1.2%  
341 0.2% 1.0%  
342 0.1% 0.8%  
343 0.1% 0.7%  
344 0.1% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0% 0.4%  
348 0.1% 0.3%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 99.9%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.8%  
250 0% 99.8%  
251 0.2% 99.7%  
252 0.1% 99.6%  
253 0.2% 99.5%  
254 0% 99.3%  
255 0.1% 99.3%  
256 0.1% 99.2%  
257 0.3% 99.1%  
258 0.1% 98.9%  
259 0.1% 98.8%  
260 0.1% 98.7%  
261 0.1% 98.6%  
262 0.1% 98.5%  
263 0.2% 98%  
264 0.2% 98%  
265 0.2% 98%  
266 0.1% 98%  
267 0.3% 98%  
268 0.3% 97%  
269 0.3% 97%  
270 0.4% 97%  
271 0.4% 96%  
272 0.5% 96%  
273 0.7% 95%  
274 0.7% 95%  
275 1.0% 94%  
276 0.6% 93%  
277 1.2% 93%  
278 2% 91%  
279 2% 90%  
280 2% 88%  
281 2% 86%  
282 2% 85%  
283 3% 82%  
284 3% 79%  
285 4% 76%  
286 3% 72%  
287 4% 69%  
288 4% 66%  
289 5% 61%  
290 4% 56%  
291 4% 52% Median
292 3% 48%  
293 4% 45%  
294 5% 41%  
295 7% 36%  
296 2% 29%  
297 4% 27%  
298 2% 23%  
299 3% 20%  
300 4% 17% Last Result
301 2% 13%  
302 2% 11%  
303 2% 10%  
304 0.9% 8%  
305 2% 7%  
306 1.2% 5%  
307 0.7% 4%  
308 0.5% 3%  
309 0.9% 3%  
310 0.4% 2%  
311 0.5% 2%  
312 0.2% 1.1%  
313 0.2% 0.8%  
314 0.1% 0.6%  
315 0.2% 0.5%  
316 0.1% 0.4%  
317 0.1% 0.2%  
318 0% 0.2%  
319 0% 0.1%  
320 0% 0.1%  
321 0% 0.1%  
322 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
219 0% 100%  
220 0% 99.9% Last Result
221 0.1% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.8%  
223 0.1% 99.8%  
224 0.2% 99.7%  
225 0.2% 99.5%  
226 0.2% 99.3%  
227 0.4% 99.1%  
228 0.8% 98.7%  
229 0.5% 98%  
230 0.6% 97%  
231 0.8% 97%  
232 2% 96%  
233 2% 94%  
234 0.7% 93%  
235 2% 92%  
236 3% 90%  
237 3% 87%  
238 1.5% 84%  
239 3% 83%  
240 4% 79%  
241 4% 75%  
242 3% 71%  
243 5% 68%  
244 7% 64%  
245 3% 57%  
246 3% 54% Median
247 6% 51%  
248 5% 46%  
249 6% 41%  
250 4% 35%  
251 2% 31%  
252 6% 29%  
253 3% 23%  
254 2% 20%  
255 3% 18%  
256 3% 15%  
257 2% 13%  
258 0.9% 11%  
259 1.4% 10%  
260 2% 8%  
261 1.0% 6%  
262 0.5% 6%  
263 1.0% 5%  
264 0.8% 4%  
265 0.6% 3%  
266 0.3% 3%  
267 0.4% 2%  
268 0.5% 2%  
269 0.3% 1.4%  
270 0.3% 1.1%  
271 0.1% 0.8%  
272 0.1% 0.7%  
273 0.2% 0.6%  
274 0.1% 0.4%  
275 0.1% 0.3%  
276 0% 0.3%  
277 0% 0.2%  
278 0% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
154 0% 100%  
155 0% 99.9%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.2% 99.6%  
161 0.3% 99.3%  
162 0.4% 99.0%  
163 0.5% 98.7%  
164 0.6% 98%  
165 1.0% 98%  
166 1.2% 96%  
167 1.3% 95%  
168 3% 94%  
169 2% 91%  
170 2% 89%  
171 3% 87%  
172 3% 84%  
173 4% 81%  
174 3% 77%  
175 4% 74%  
176 5% 70%  
177 5% 65%  
178 6% 61%  
179 6% 55%  
180 5% 49% Median
181 4% 44%  
182 6% 39%  
183 3% 33%  
184 3% 30%  
185 3% 27%  
186 3% 24%  
187 3% 20%  
188 3% 17%  
189 3% 14%  
190 2% 11%  
191 2% 9%  
192 2% 8%  
193 1.1% 6%  
194 0.9% 5%  
195 0.8% 4%  
196 0.7% 3%  
197 0.5% 2%  
198 0.4% 2%  
199 0.3% 1.3%  
200 0.2% 1.0%  
201 0.1% 0.8%  
202 0.2% 0.7%  
203 0.1% 0.5%  
204 0.1% 0.4%  
205 0.1% 0.3%  
206 0.1% 0.2%  
207 0.1% 0.2%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.3% 99.4%  
115 0.2% 99.1%  
116 0.1% 99.0%  
117 0.1% 98.8%  
118 0.2% 98.7%  
119 0.1% 98.5%  
120 0.1% 98%  
121 0.1% 98%  
122 0.2% 98%  
123 0.2% 98%  
124 0.3% 98%  
125 0.2% 97%  
126 0.2% 97%  
127 0.2% 97%  
128 0% 97%  
129 0% 97%  
130 0% 97%  
131 0.1% 97%  
132 0% 97%  
133 0% 97%  
134 0% 97%  
135 0.1% 97%  
136 0.1% 96%  
137 0.1% 96%  
138 0.1% 96%  
139 0.2% 96%  
140 0.5% 96%  
141 0.6% 95%  
142 0.6% 95%  
143 0.7% 94%  
144 0.9% 93%  
145 1.3% 93%  
146 2% 91%  
147 2% 90%  
148 3% 88%  
149 3% 85%  
150 3% 82%  
151 3% 79%  
152 5% 76%  
153 5% 71%  
154 3% 66%  
155 7% 63%  
156 4% 56%  
157 7% 52% Median
158 3% 45%  
159 5% 42%  
160 4% 37%  
161 5% 32%  
162 5% 27%  
163 4% 22%  
164 3% 19%  
165 3% 16%  
166 3% 13%  
167 2% 10%  
168 2% 8%  
169 2% 6%  
170 1.3% 5%  
171 0.9% 4%  
172 0.8% 3%  
173 0.4% 2%  
174 0.4% 2%  
175 0.3% 1.1%  
176 0.2% 0.8%  
177 0.1% 0.6%  
178 0.2% 0.4%  
179 0.1% 0.3%  
180 0.1% 0.2%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations