Opinion Poll by Kantar, 19–25 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.6% 26.2–29.1% 25.8–29.6% 25.4–29.9% 24.7–30.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.6–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 14.9–17.3% 14.5–17.6% 14.3–18.0% 13.7–18.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.3–11.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.3–9.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.3–9.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.4% 5.7–7.3% 5.4–7.5% 5.3–7.7% 4.9–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 210 199–221 196–225 193–227 188–232
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 127–147 125–149 123–152 118–157
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 122 113–131 111–134 108–136 104–141
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 62–76 60–79 58–80 56–84
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 61 54–68 52–70 51–72 48–76
Die Linke 69 60 54–68 52–70 51–72 48–76
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 43–55 41–57 40–59 37–62

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
182 0% 100%  
183 0% 99.9%  
184 0% 99.9%  
185 0.1% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.8%  
187 0.1% 99.7%  
188 0.1% 99.6%  
189 0.2% 99.5%  
190 0.4% 99.3%  
191 0.5% 98.9%  
192 0.6% 98%  
193 0.5% 98%  
194 0.7% 97%  
195 1.0% 97%  
196 1.1% 96%  
197 2% 94%  
198 2% 93%  
199 3% 91%  
200 1.4% 88% Last Result
201 3% 87%  
202 3% 84%  
203 3% 81%  
204 4% 78%  
205 3% 74%  
206 4% 70%  
207 6% 66%  
208 4% 60%  
209 5% 56%  
210 3% 51% Median
211 4% 48%  
212 5% 43%  
213 5% 39%  
214 5% 34%  
215 3% 28%  
216 4% 25%  
217 2% 21%  
218 3% 19%  
219 3% 16%  
220 3% 14%  
221 2% 11%  
222 1.5% 9%  
223 1.3% 7%  
224 0.8% 6%  
225 1.1% 5%  
226 1.0% 4%  
227 0.8% 3%  
228 0.5% 2%  
229 0.4% 2%  
230 0.3% 1.3%  
231 0.2% 1.0%  
232 0.3% 0.8%  
233 0.1% 0.5%  
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0.3% 99.5%  
120 0.3% 99.2%  
121 0.7% 98.8%  
122 0.6% 98%  
123 0.9% 98%  
124 1.3% 97%  
125 2% 95%  
126 2% 94%  
127 2% 92%  
128 3% 90%  
129 3% 87%  
130 4% 84%  
131 4% 80%  
132 4% 76%  
133 4% 71%  
134 5% 67%  
135 6% 62%  
136 6% 57%  
137 5% 51% Median
138 6% 46%  
139 5% 40%  
140 5% 35%  
141 4% 31%  
142 4% 27%  
143 3% 23%  
144 3% 19%  
145 3% 16%  
146 2% 13%  
147 2% 11%  
148 2% 9%  
149 2% 7%  
150 1.0% 5%  
151 1.0% 4%  
152 0.7% 3%  
153 0.7% 2%  
154 0.4% 2%  
155 0.3% 1.2%  
156 0.3% 0.9%  
157 0.2% 0.5%  
158 0.1% 0.4%  
159 0.1% 0.3%  
160 0.1% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 99.9%  
102 0.1% 99.9%  
103 0.1% 99.8%  
104 0.2% 99.7%  
105 0.2% 99.5%  
106 0.4% 99.2%  
107 0.6% 98.8%  
108 0.9% 98%  
109 1.1% 97%  
110 1.2% 96%  
111 2% 95%  
112 3% 93%  
113 3% 91%  
114 4% 88%  
115 3% 84%  
116 4% 81%  
117 5% 77%  
118 6% 72%  
119 6% 66%  
120 5% 60%  
121 5% 56%  
122 6% 51% Median
123 5% 45%  
124 5% 40%  
125 4% 35%  
126 5% 31%  
127 3% 26%  
128 4% 23%  
129 3% 19%  
130 4% 15%  
131 2% 12%  
132 2% 10%  
133 2% 8%  
134 1.4% 6%  
135 1.3% 5%  
136 1.0% 3%  
137 0.6% 2%  
138 0.4% 2%  
139 0.4% 1.3%  
140 0.3% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.6%  
142 0.2% 0.4%  
143 0.1% 0.2%  
144 0% 0.2%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 0.8% 99.0%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 3% 96%  
61 3% 93%  
62 3% 91%  
63 5% 88%  
64 6% 83%  
65 4% 77%  
66 5% 73%  
67 6% 68%  
68 6% 62%  
69 7% 55% Median
70 6% 48%  
71 5% 42%  
72 8% 37%  
73 6% 29%  
74 4% 22%  
75 5% 19%  
76 5% 13%  
77 2% 8%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.3% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.5% 99.4%  
50 1.0% 98.9%  
51 1.2% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 2% 95%  
54 3% 93%  
55 4% 89%  
56 5% 85%  
57 5% 80%  
58 6% 74%  
59 7% 69%  
60 9% 61%  
61 7% 52% Median
62 7% 45%  
63 6% 37%  
64 6% 32%  
65 6% 26%  
66 5% 20%  
67 5% 15%  
68 3% 11%  
69 2% 8%  
70 2% 6%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.2%  
75 0.3% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.6% 99.3%  
50 1.0% 98.7%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 2% 95%  
54 3% 92%  
55 3% 90%  
56 5% 87%  
57 7% 82%  
58 8% 74%  
59 10% 67%  
60 8% 57% Median
61 7% 48%  
62 6% 41%  
63 5% 35%  
64 4% 30%  
65 5% 26%  
66 4% 21%  
67 4% 17%  
68 4% 13%  
69 3% 9% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.1% 4%  
72 0.9% 3%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.5%  
39 0.9% 98.7%  
40 1.3% 98%  
41 2% 96%  
42 4% 95%  
43 5% 91%  
44 4% 86%  
45 4% 82%  
46 7% 78% Last Result
47 9% 71%  
48 8% 61%  
49 6% 53% Median
50 6% 47%  
51 10% 41%  
52 8% 31%  
53 4% 23%  
54 4% 18%  
55 5% 15%  
56 4% 10%  
57 2% 6%  
58 1.2% 5%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.2%  
62 0.2% 0.7%  
63 0.2% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 517 100% 507–529 504–532 502–535 496–539
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 457 100% 445–469 442–472 439–475 434–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 442 100% 430–454 426–457 424–460 418–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 396 100% 384–408 381–411 377–414 372–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 390 100% 377–402 373–405 370–408 364–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 99.8% 368–393 365–397 363–399 357–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 329 0.3% 316–340 312–343 309–347 304–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 319 0% 307–332 304–336 301–339 296–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 320 0% 308–332 304–336 301–339 296–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 320 0% 308–332 305–335 301–339 296–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 247–271 244–274 241–277 236–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 182 0% 172–194 169–197 167–200 162–205
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 183 0% 172–194 169–197 167–200 162–205

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 99.9%  
492 0.1% 99.9%  
493 0.1% 99.8%  
494 0.1% 99.8%  
495 0.2% 99.7%  
496 0.1% 99.5%  
497 0.2% 99.4%  
498 0.2% 99.2%  
499 0.4% 99.0%  
500 0.4% 98.5%  
501 0.5% 98%  
502 0.9% 98%  
503 0.9% 97%  
504 2% 96%  
505 1.0% 94%  
506 2% 93%  
507 2% 91%  
508 4% 90%  
509 2% 86%  
510 2% 84%  
511 4% 82%  
512 5% 78%  
513 3% 73%  
514 5% 70%  
515 5% 65%  
516 4% 61%  
517 7% 56%  
518 4% 50% Median
519 4% 46%  
520 5% 42%  
521 4% 37%  
522 2% 32%  
523 6% 30%  
524 2% 25%  
525 3% 22%  
526 4% 19%  
527 2% 16%  
528 2% 13%  
529 2% 12%  
530 2% 9%  
531 2% 7%  
532 1.5% 6%  
533 0.9% 4%  
534 0.7% 3%  
535 0.8% 3%  
536 0.4% 2%  
537 0.3% 1.3%  
538 0.4% 1.0%  
539 0.2% 0.6%  
540 0.1% 0.4%  
541 0.1% 0.3%  
542 0.1% 0.2%  
543 0% 0.1%  
544 0% 0.1%  
545 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 99.9%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.8%  
432 0.1% 99.7%  
433 0.1% 99.7%  
434 0.2% 99.5%  
435 0.2% 99.3%  
436 0.3% 99.1%  
437 0.4% 98.8%  
438 0.4% 98%  
439 0.7% 98%  
440 0.7% 97%  
441 0.9% 97%  
442 1.0% 96%  
443 1.4% 95%  
444 2% 93%  
445 2% 92%  
446 2% 90%  
447 2% 88%  
448 3% 85%  
449 3% 83%  
450 4% 80%  
451 4% 76%  
452 3% 72%  
453 5% 70%  
454 3% 65%  
455 5% 62%  
456 4% 57%  
457 3% 52% Median
458 5% 49%  
459 4% 44%  
460 5% 40%  
461 4% 35%  
462 4% 31%  
463 4% 27%  
464 3% 24%  
465 3% 21%  
466 3% 18%  
467 3% 15%  
468 2% 12%  
469 2% 10%  
470 1.4% 8%  
471 2% 7%  
472 0.8% 5%  
473 1.0% 4%  
474 0.8% 3%  
475 0.5% 3%  
476 0.5% 2%  
477 0.3% 1.4%  
478 0.3% 1.1%  
479 0.2% 0.8%  
480 0.1% 0.6%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.2% 99.4%  
420 0.3% 99.2%  
421 0.3% 98.9%  
422 0.3% 98.6%  
423 0.5% 98%  
424 0.9% 98%  
425 0.7% 97%  
426 1.2% 96%  
427 1.1% 95%  
428 1.5% 94%  
429 1.4% 92%  
430 2% 91%  
431 2% 88%  
432 3% 86%  
433 3% 84%  
434 3% 81%  
435 3% 78%  
436 5% 75%  
437 4% 70%  
438 2% 66%  
439 3% 64%  
440 5% 61%  
441 5% 56%  
442 3% 51% Median
443 4% 49%  
444 5% 44%  
445 3% 40%  
446 2% 36%  
447 7% 34%  
448 3% 27%  
449 2% 24%  
450 3% 22%  
451 3% 20%  
452 3% 16%  
453 2% 13%  
454 2% 11%  
455 2% 9%  
456 1.0% 7%  
457 2% 6%  
458 1.0% 5%  
459 0.7% 4%  
460 0.7% 3%  
461 0.6% 2%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.3% 1.3%  
464 0.3% 0.9%  
465 0.2% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.4%  
468 0.1% 0.3%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 99.9%  
367 0% 99.9%  
368 0.1% 99.9%  
369 0.1% 99.8%  
370 0.1% 99.8%  
371 0.1% 99.7%  
372 0.1% 99.5%  
373 0.3% 99.4%  
374 0.2% 99.1%  
375 0.3% 98.9%  
376 0.5% 98.6%  
377 0.6% 98%  
378 0.6% 97%  
379 1.0% 97%  
380 0.8% 96%  
381 1.1% 95%  
382 2% 94%  
383 2% 93%  
384 2% 91%  
385 1.2% 89%  
386 2% 87%  
387 2% 85%  
388 3% 82%  
389 4% 79%  
390 2% 75%  
391 4% 73%  
392 4% 68%  
393 4% 65%  
394 3% 61%  
395 5% 57%  
396 5% 53% Median
397 4% 48%  
398 4% 44%  
399 4% 40%  
400 5% 36%  
401 4% 31%  
402 3% 27%  
403 3% 24%  
404 3% 21%  
405 3% 18%  
406 2% 15%  
407 2% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 1.4% 9%  
410 1.4% 7%  
411 1.2% 6%  
412 1.1% 5%  
413 0.7% 4%  
414 0.7% 3%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.5% 2%  
417 0.2% 1.4%  
418 0.4% 1.2%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.6%  
421 0.2% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.3% 99.3%  
367 0.4% 99.0%  
368 0.3% 98.6%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 0.5% 97%  
372 0.9% 97%  
373 1.1% 96%  
374 1.3% 95%  
375 2% 93%  
376 1.2% 92%  
377 2% 90%  
378 2% 89%  
379 2% 86%  
380 3% 85%  
381 2% 81%  
382 3% 79%  
383 2% 76%  
384 5% 73%  
385 4% 69%  
386 4% 65%  
387 3% 61%  
388 4% 58%  
389 4% 54% Median
390 4% 50%  
391 4% 46%  
392 4% 42%  
393 4% 38%  
394 4% 34%  
395 3% 30%  
396 4% 28%  
397 3% 24%  
398 4% 21%  
399 3% 17%  
400 2% 14%  
401 2% 12%  
402 2% 10%  
403 2% 8%  
404 2% 7%  
405 1.0% 5%  
406 0.9% 4%  
407 0.5% 3%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.5% 2%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.3% 1.2%  
412 0.3% 0.9%  
413 0.2% 0.7%  
414 0.1% 0.5%  
415 0.1% 0.4%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0.1% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.6%  
357 0.1% 99.5%  
358 0.2% 99.4%  
359 0.3% 99.2%  
360 0.4% 99.0%  
361 0.5% 98.6%  
362 0.4% 98%  
363 0.8% 98%  
364 0.8% 97%  
365 1.1% 96%  
366 1.1% 95%  
367 2% 94%  
368 2% 92%  
369 1.2% 90%  
370 3% 89%  
371 3% 86%  
372 3% 83%  
373 4% 80%  
374 2% 77%  
375 3% 74%  
376 5% 71%  
377 3% 67%  
378 4% 64%  
379 4% 60%  
380 5% 56%  
381 4% 51% Median
382 4% 47%  
383 3% 44%  
384 4% 40%  
385 4% 37%  
386 3% 33%  
387 5% 29%  
388 2% 25%  
389 3% 22%  
390 2% 19%  
391 2% 16%  
392 2% 14%  
393 2% 12%  
394 2% 10%  
395 1.3% 8%  
396 1.5% 7%  
397 1.3% 5%  
398 0.7% 4%  
399 0.8% 3% Last Result
400 0.4% 2%  
401 0.4% 2%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.3% 1.1%  
404 0.2% 0.8%  
405 0.2% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0% 99.8%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.6%  
305 0.4% 99.3%  
306 0.3% 99.0%  
307 0.5% 98.6%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.4% 98%  
310 0.6% 97%  
311 0.8% 97%  
312 1.2% 96%  
313 1.4% 95%  
314 2% 93%  
315 1.2% 92%  
316 2% 90%  
317 2% 88%  
318 2% 87%  
319 1.2% 84%  
320 3% 83%  
321 3% 80%  
322 4% 77%  
323 4% 73%  
324 5% 70%  
325 4% 65%  
326 2% 61%  
327 3% 59%  
328 3% 56% Median
329 5% 52%  
330 6% 47%  
331 4% 41%  
332 5% 37%  
333 3% 32%  
334 3% 29%  
335 2% 25%  
336 4% 24%  
337 2% 20%  
338 4% 18%  
339 3% 14%  
340 2% 11% Last Result
341 2% 9%  
342 1.2% 8%  
343 2% 6%  
344 0.7% 5%  
345 0.8% 4%  
346 0.6% 3%  
347 0.6% 3%  
348 0.6% 2%  
349 0.3% 1.5%  
350 0.4% 1.2%  
351 0.2% 0.8%  
352 0.1% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.4%  
355 0.1% 0.3% Majority
356 0.1% 0.2%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.2% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.3%  
298 0.3% 99.1%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 0.5% 98%  
302 0.5% 97%  
303 0.9% 97%  
304 1.0% 96%  
305 2% 95%  
306 2% 93%  
307 2% 92%  
308 2% 90%  
309 2% 88%  
310 3% 86%  
311 4% 83%  
312 3% 79%  
313 4% 76%  
314 3% 72%  
315 4% 70%  
316 4% 66%  
317 4% 62%  
318 4% 58%  
319 4% 54% Median
320 4% 50%  
321 4% 46%  
322 3% 42%  
323 4% 39%  
324 4% 35%  
325 5% 31%  
326 2% 27%  
327 3% 24%  
328 2% 21%  
329 3% 19%  
330 2% 15%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 11%  
333 1.2% 10%  
334 2% 8%  
335 1.3% 7%  
336 1.1% 5%  
337 0.9% 4%  
338 0.5% 3%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.4% 1.4%  
343 0.3% 1.0%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.2% 99.4%  
298 0.2% 99.2%  
299 0.4% 99.0%  
300 0.6% 98.6% Last Result
301 0.5% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 0.8% 97%  
304 1.1% 96%  
305 1.4% 95%  
306 0.9% 93%  
307 2% 93%  
308 2% 91%  
309 2% 89%  
310 3% 86%  
311 2% 83%  
312 4% 81%  
313 3% 77%  
314 4% 74%  
315 3% 70%  
316 4% 67%  
317 4% 63%  
318 4% 60%  
319 4% 56%  
320 5% 52% Median
321 4% 47%  
322 5% 43%  
323 4% 38%  
324 4% 35%  
325 4% 30%  
326 4% 26%  
327 2% 23%  
328 3% 21%  
329 3% 17%  
330 3% 15%  
331 2% 12%  
332 1.4% 11%  
333 2% 9%  
334 1.1% 8%  
335 1.3% 7%  
336 1.0% 5%  
337 1.0% 4%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.4% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.2%  
343 0.2% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.3% 99.4%  
298 0.4% 99.1%  
299 0.3% 98.8%  
300 0.5% 98%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.8% 97%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 0.9% 96%  
305 2% 95%  
306 1.4% 93%  
307 1.2% 92%  
308 2% 91%  
309 2% 89%  
310 2% 86%  
311 3% 84%  
312 4% 82%  
313 2% 78%  
314 3% 76%  
315 4% 73%  
316 3% 68%  
317 6% 66%  
318 4% 60%  
319 3% 56%  
320 4% 53% Median
321 4% 49%  
322 5% 45%  
323 3% 40%  
324 4% 37%  
325 4% 33%  
326 3% 29% Last Result
327 4% 25%  
328 3% 21%  
329 3% 19%  
330 3% 16%  
331 2% 14%  
332 2% 11%  
333 1.5% 10%  
334 1.4% 8%  
335 2% 7%  
336 0.9% 5%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.6% 3%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.3% 2%  
342 0.3% 1.2%  
343 0.2% 0.9%  
344 0.2% 0.7%  
345 0.2% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.2% 99.5%  
237 0.2% 99.4%  
238 0.3% 99.2%  
239 0.6% 98.9%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 0.8% 98%  
242 0.6% 97%  
243 1.1% 96%  
244 0.8% 95%  
245 2% 95%  
246 2% 93%  
247 2% 91%  
248 2% 89%  
249 3% 87%  
250 3% 84%  
251 3% 81%  
252 4% 78%  
253 3% 74%  
254 4% 72%  
255 4% 68%  
256 5% 64%  
257 4% 59%  
258 4% 55%  
259 5% 50% Median
260 4% 46%  
261 4% 42%  
262 4% 38%  
263 3% 34%  
264 3% 31%  
265 3% 27%  
266 5% 24%  
267 3% 20%  
268 3% 17%  
269 2% 14%  
270 2% 12%  
271 1.3% 10%  
272 2% 9%  
273 1.4% 7%  
274 1.4% 6%  
275 1.1% 5%  
276 0.7% 4%  
277 0.5% 3%  
278 0.6% 2%  
279 0.3% 2%  
280 0.3% 1.4%  
281 0.3% 1.1%  
282 0.2% 0.8%  
283 0.2% 0.6%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.7%  
162 0.2% 99.6%  
163 0.3% 99.4%  
164 0.3% 99.2%  
165 0.4% 98.8%  
166 0.6% 98%  
167 0.7% 98%  
168 0.9% 97%  
169 1.4% 96%  
170 1.1% 95%  
171 2% 94%  
172 2% 92%  
173 2% 89%  
174 3% 87%  
175 3% 84%  
176 3% 81%  
177 5% 78%  
178 4% 73%  
179 5% 70%  
180 4% 64%  
181 6% 60%  
182 4% 54% Median
183 4% 50%  
184 6% 46%  
185 5% 40%  
186 4% 36%  
187 4% 32%  
188 3% 27%  
189 4% 25%  
190 3% 20%  
191 2% 17%  
192 3% 15%  
193 2% 12%  
194 2% 10%  
195 2% 9%  
196 1.2% 7%  
197 1.2% 6%  
198 0.9% 4%  
199 0.8% 4%  
200 0.7% 3%  
201 0.5% 2%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.2% 1.1%  
204 0.3% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.3% 99.5%  
164 0.3% 99.2%  
165 0.4% 98.9%  
166 0.5% 98%  
167 0.7% 98%  
168 1.1% 97%  
169 1.3% 96%  
170 1.5% 95%  
171 2% 93%  
172 2% 91%  
173 2% 89%  
174 3% 87%  
175 4% 84%  
176 3% 80%  
177 4% 78%  
178 3% 73%  
179 5% 70%  
180 5% 65%  
181 4% 60%  
182 5% 56%  
183 5% 51% Median
184 4% 46%  
185 5% 42%  
186 4% 37%  
187 4% 33%  
188 4% 29%  
189 4% 25%  
190 3% 21%  
191 3% 18%  
192 3% 15%  
193 2% 12%  
194 2% 10%  
195 2% 9%  
196 1.5% 7%  
197 1.0% 5%  
198 1.1% 4%  
199 0.7% 3%  
200 0.6% 3%  
201 0.5% 2%  
202 0.4% 1.5%  
203 0.3% 1.1%  
204 0.3% 0.8%  
205 0.2% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations