Opinion Poll by Forsa, 23–27 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.9–31.3% 28.6–31.6% 28.3–31.9% 27.8–32.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 20.0–22.1% 19.7–22.4% 19.4–22.6% 19.0–23.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.7% 7.1–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.4%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.3–7.6% 6.1–7.8% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 227 218–235 216–238 213–241 209–246
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 150–167 148–168 147–170 143–175
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 106–120 105–122 103–124 100–128
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 54–67 53–69 50–72
Alternative für Deutschland 94 53 48–58 47–59 46–61 44–63
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 48–57 46–59 45–60 43–63
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 41–50 40–51 39–53 0–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.9%  
208 0.1% 99.8%  
209 0.2% 99.6%  
210 0.3% 99.4%  
211 0.4% 99.1%  
212 0.6% 98.7%  
213 0.9% 98%  
214 1.1% 97%  
215 1.1% 96%  
216 2% 95%  
217 2% 93%  
218 3% 91%  
219 3% 88%  
220 4% 85%  
221 4% 81%  
222 4% 77%  
223 5% 73%  
224 7% 68%  
225 5% 61%  
226 6% 56%  
227 6% 50% Median
228 4% 44%  
229 7% 40%  
230 5% 33%  
231 4% 28%  
232 5% 24%  
233 3% 19%  
234 3% 16%  
235 3% 13%  
236 2% 10%  
237 2% 7%  
238 1.2% 6%  
239 1.2% 5%  
240 0.7% 4%  
241 0.7% 3%  
242 0.5% 2%  
243 0.4% 2%  
244 0.3% 1.2%  
245 0.2% 0.9%  
246 0.2% 0.7%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.2%  
251 0.1% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.1%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 100%  
135 0% 100%  
136 0% 100%  
137 0% 100%  
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 100%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.2% 99.7%  
143 0.2% 99.6%  
144 0.2% 99.4%  
145 0.5% 99.1%  
146 0.9% 98.7%  
147 1.0% 98%  
148 2% 97%  
149 2% 95%  
150 4% 92%  
151 3% 89%  
152 4% 86%  
153 3% 82%  
154 3% 79%  
155 6% 75%  
156 6% 70%  
157 8% 64%  
158 7% 56% Median
159 9% 48%  
160 5% 40%  
161 6% 34%  
162 4% 28%  
163 3% 24%  
164 4% 21%  
165 3% 17%  
166 4% 14%  
167 3% 10%  
168 3% 8%  
169 1.4% 5%  
170 1.1% 3%  
171 0.6% 2%  
172 0.4% 2%  
173 0.4% 1.3%  
174 0.2% 0.9%  
175 0.2% 0.7%  
176 0.2% 0.5%  
177 0.1% 0.3%  
178 0.1% 0.2%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0.1%  
181 0% 0.1%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0.2% 99.8%  
100 0.3% 99.6%  
101 0.5% 99.3%  
102 0.9% 98.8%  
103 1.0% 98%  
104 2% 97%  
105 2% 95%  
106 4% 93%  
107 3% 89%  
108 5% 86%  
109 6% 80%  
110 7% 75%  
111 9% 68%  
112 7% 60%  
113 7% 52% Median
114 7% 46%  
115 5% 38%  
116 6% 33%  
117 6% 27%  
118 4% 21%  
119 5% 17%  
120 3% 12%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.4% 5%  
124 1.0% 3%  
125 0.8% 2%  
126 0.4% 1.4%  
127 0.3% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0.1% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 99.5%  
52 0.9% 98.9%  
53 2% 98%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 94%  
56 6% 90%  
57 7% 84%  
58 9% 76%  
59 9% 68%  
60 9% 59% Median
61 10% 50%  
62 10% 40%  
63 7% 31%  
64 7% 23%  
65 5% 16%  
66 4% 11%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.3% 3% Last Result
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.5%  
45 1.2% 98.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 3% 96%  
48 3% 93%  
49 7% 89%  
50 8% 83%  
51 11% 75%  
52 10% 64%  
53 11% 54% Median
54 10% 43%  
55 7% 33%  
56 8% 26%  
57 5% 18%  
58 4% 13%  
59 4% 9%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.5% 99.7%  
44 0.9% 99.2%  
45 1.5% 98%  
46 2% 97% Last Result
47 4% 94%  
48 6% 91%  
49 7% 84%  
50 8% 77%  
51 10% 69%  
52 11% 59% Median
53 10% 48%  
54 9% 38%  
55 9% 29%  
56 6% 20%  
57 4% 14%  
58 4% 10%  
59 3% 6%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 0.9% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 0% 98.8%  
5 0% 98.8%  
6 0% 98.8%  
7 0% 98.8%  
8 0% 98.8%  
9 0% 98.8%  
10 0% 98.8%  
11 0% 98.8%  
12 0% 98.8%  
13 0% 98.8%  
14 0% 98.8%  
15 0% 98.8%  
16 0% 98.8%  
17 0% 98.8%  
18 0% 98.8%  
19 0% 98.8%  
20 0% 98.8%  
21 0% 98.8%  
22 0% 98.8%  
23 0% 98.8%  
24 0% 98.8%  
25 0% 98.8%  
26 0% 98.8%  
27 0% 98.8%  
28 0% 98.8%  
29 0% 98.8%  
30 0% 98.8%  
31 0% 98.8%  
32 0% 98.8%  
33 0% 98.8%  
34 0% 98.8%  
35 0% 98.8%  
36 0% 98.8%  
37 0% 98.8%  
38 0.9% 98.8%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 5% 92%  
42 8% 87%  
43 10% 79%  
44 10% 69%  
45 12% 59% Median
46 10% 47%  
47 9% 37%  
48 9% 27%  
49 6% 18%  
50 5% 13%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.7%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 550 100% 542–558 540–561 538–563 534–589
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 482 100% 474–491 471–493 468–496 463–500
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 437 100% 428–446 425–449 423–453 419–469
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 437 100% 428–446 425–449 422–451 415–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 392 100% 383–402 380–405 378–408 373–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 377 99.3% 367–387 365–389 362–391 352–396
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 332 0.7% 323–341 320–344 318–347 313–357
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 332 0.7% 322–342 320–344 318–347 313–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 324 0% 315–333 312–336 308–338 296–343
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 307–326 304–328 301–331 289–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 271 0% 262–281 260–283 258–287 253–294
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 165–181 164–184 162–187 158–191
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 150–166 148–169 146–171 120–175

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 100%  
518 0% 100%  
519 0% 100%  
520 0% 100%  
521 0% 100%  
522 0% 100%  
523 0% 100%  
524 0% 100%  
525 0% 100%  
526 0% 100%  
527 0% 100%  
528 0% 100%  
529 0% 100%  
530 0% 99.9%  
531 0.1% 99.9%  
532 0.1% 99.9%  
533 0.1% 99.8%  
534 0.2% 99.6%  
535 0.3% 99.4%  
536 0.4% 99.1%  
537 0.7% 98.7%  
538 0.8% 98%  
539 1.1% 97%  
540 2% 96%  
541 2% 94%  
542 3% 92%  
543 3% 89%  
544 3% 86%  
545 4% 83%  
546 4% 80%  
547 6% 75%  
548 8% 69%  
549 7% 61%  
550 7% 54% Median
551 6% 47%  
552 5% 41%  
553 7% 36%  
554 6% 29%  
555 4% 23%  
556 5% 19%  
557 2% 14%  
558 3% 12%  
559 2% 10%  
560 2% 7%  
561 1.3% 6%  
562 1.3% 4%  
563 0.5% 3%  
564 0.5% 2%  
565 0.3% 2%  
566 0.2% 2%  
567 0.1% 1.5%  
568 0.1% 1.4%  
569 0% 1.3%  
570 0% 1.3%  
571 0% 1.2%  
572 0% 1.2%  
573 0% 1.2%  
574 0% 1.2%  
575 0% 1.2%  
576 0% 1.2%  
577 0% 1.2%  
578 0% 1.2%  
579 0% 1.2%  
580 0% 1.1%  
581 0% 1.1%  
582 0% 1.1%  
583 0.1% 1.0%  
584 0.1% 1.0%  
585 0.1% 0.9%  
586 0.1% 0.8%  
587 0.1% 0.7%  
588 0.1% 0.6%  
589 0.1% 0.5%  
590 0.1% 0.5%  
591 0.1% 0.4%  
592 0.1% 0.3%  
593 0% 0.2%  
594 0.1% 0.2%  
595 0% 0.1%  
596 0% 0.1%  
597 0% 0.1%  
598 0% 0.1%  
599 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 100%  
456 0% 99.9%  
457 0% 99.9%  
458 0% 99.9%  
459 0% 99.8%  
460 0.1% 99.8%  
461 0.1% 99.7%  
462 0.1% 99.6%  
463 0.2% 99.5%  
464 0.3% 99.3%  
465 0.4% 99.1%  
466 0.2% 98.7%  
467 0.5% 98%  
468 0.6% 98%  
469 0.9% 97%  
470 1.1% 97%  
471 1.1% 95%  
472 2% 94%  
473 2% 92%  
474 3% 90%  
475 2% 87%  
476 4% 85%  
477 3% 81%  
478 5% 78%  
479 6% 73%  
480 7% 67%  
481 4% 59%  
482 6% 55% Median
483 5% 50%  
484 6% 45%  
485 6% 39%  
486 7% 33%  
487 4% 26%  
488 5% 22%  
489 3% 17%  
490 3% 14%  
491 2% 12%  
492 2% 9%  
493 2% 7%  
494 1.3% 5%  
495 1.0% 4%  
496 0.8% 3%  
497 0.6% 2%  
498 0.3% 1.2%  
499 0.3% 0.9%  
500 0.2% 0.6%  
501 0.2% 0.4%  
502 0.1% 0.2%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.2% 99.7%  
419 0.2% 99.5%  
420 0.3% 99.3%  
421 0.4% 99.0%  
422 0.9% 98.5%  
423 0.5% 98%  
424 1.3% 97%  
425 1.3% 96%  
426 1.0% 95%  
427 2% 94%  
428 1.4% 91%  
429 2% 90%  
430 4% 88%  
431 4% 83%  
432 3% 79%  
433 6% 76%  
434 4% 70%  
435 5% 65%  
436 8% 60%  
437 6% 52% Median
438 4% 47%  
439 6% 43%  
440 4% 36%  
441 5% 32%  
442 4% 27%  
443 4% 23%  
444 3% 19%  
445 2% 15%  
446 3% 13%  
447 2% 9%  
448 2% 8%  
449 1.0% 6%  
450 0.9% 5%  
451 0.7% 4%  
452 0.7% 3%  
453 0.4% 3%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.2% 2%  
456 0.2% 2%  
457 0.1% 1.4%  
458 0.1% 1.3%  
459 0% 1.2%  
460 0.1% 1.1%  
461 0.1% 1.0%  
462 0.1% 1.0%  
463 0% 0.9%  
464 0% 0.9%  
465 0.2% 0.8%  
466 0.1% 0.7%  
467 0% 0.6%  
468 0.1% 0.6%  
469 0% 0.5%  
470 0.1% 0.5%  
471 0% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.4%  
473 0.1% 0.3%  
474 0.1% 0.2%  
475 0% 0.2%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0.1%  
478 0% 0.1%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0% 99.9%  
409 0.1% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.8%  
411 0% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.1% 99.6%  
415 0.1% 99.5%  
416 0.1% 99.5%  
417 0.2% 99.4%  
418 0.2% 99.2%  
419 0.3% 99.0%  
420 0.3% 98.7%  
421 0.5% 98%  
422 0.6% 98%  
423 1.0% 97%  
424 0.8% 96%  
425 1.4% 96%  
426 1.4% 94%  
427 2% 93%  
428 3% 91%  
429 2% 88%  
430 4% 86%  
431 3% 82%  
432 4% 79%  
433 5% 75%  
434 5% 69%  
435 6% 65%  
436 4% 59%  
437 6% 55% Median
438 7% 49%  
439 4% 42%  
440 6% 38%  
441 5% 32%  
442 4% 27%  
443 4% 23%  
444 4% 20%  
445 2% 16%  
446 4% 14%  
447 2% 10%  
448 2% 8%  
449 2% 6%  
450 1.1% 4%  
451 0.7% 3%  
452 0.6% 2%  
453 0.6% 2%  
454 0.4% 1.1%  
455 0.2% 0.7%  
456 0.2% 0.5%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0.1% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.2% 99.6%  
374 0.2% 99.5%  
375 0.4% 99.2%  
376 0.5% 98.8%  
377 0.7% 98%  
378 0.8% 98%  
379 1.3% 97%  
380 1.4% 95%  
381 2% 94%  
382 2% 92%  
383 3% 90%  
384 3% 88%  
385 3% 84%  
386 5% 82%  
387 5% 77%  
388 4% 72%  
389 4% 68%  
390 6% 64%  
391 5% 58%  
392 5% 53% Median
393 7% 47%  
394 3% 40%  
395 6% 37%  
396 4% 31%  
397 5% 27%  
398 3% 22%  
399 4% 19% Last Result
400 2% 16%  
401 3% 13%  
402 2% 11%  
403 1.3% 8%  
404 1.3% 7%  
405 2% 6%  
406 0.9% 4%  
407 0.5% 3%  
408 0.5% 3%  
409 0.4% 2%  
410 0.3% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.2% 1.3%  
413 0.1% 1.2%  
414 0.1% 1.0%  
415 0.1% 0.9%  
416 0.1% 0.8%  
417 0.1% 0.8%  
418 0.1% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.4%  
423 0% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 99.9%  
343 0% 99.9%  
344 0% 99.9%  
345 0% 99.9%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.8%  
348 0% 99.8%  
349 0% 99.7%  
350 0% 99.7%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.1% 99.5%  
353 0.1% 99.4%  
354 0.1% 99.4%  
355 0.1% 99.3% Majority
356 0.1% 99.2%  
357 0.2% 99.0%  
358 0.2% 98.8%  
359 0.2% 98.6%  
360 0.5% 98%  
361 0.3% 98%  
362 0.6% 98%  
363 0.8% 97%  
364 1.0% 96%  
365 2% 95%  
366 2% 94%  
367 2% 92%  
368 3% 90%  
369 3% 87%  
370 2% 85%  
371 5% 82%  
372 3% 77%  
373 5% 74%  
374 6% 70%  
375 3% 63%  
376 6% 60%  
377 5% 54% Median
378 4% 48%  
379 7% 44%  
380 5% 37%  
381 5% 32%  
382 4% 27%  
383 4% 23%  
384 3% 19%  
385 3% 15%  
386 2% 12%  
387 3% 10%  
388 1.4% 7%  
389 1.3% 6%  
390 1.4% 5%  
391 0.9% 3%  
392 0.8% 2%  
393 0.4% 2%  
394 0.4% 1.2%  
395 0.2% 0.8%  
396 0.1% 0.6%  
397 0.1% 0.4%  
398 0.1% 0.3%  
399 0% 0.2%  
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  
403 0% 0%  
404 0% 0%  
405 0% 0%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.2% 99.8%  
313 0.2% 99.6%  
314 0.3% 99.4%  
315 0.3% 99.1%  
316 0.5% 98.8%  
317 0.8% 98%  
318 0.8% 98%  
319 1.3% 97%  
320 1.4% 95%  
321 2% 94%  
322 2% 92%  
323 3% 90%  
324 3% 87%  
325 4% 85%  
326 4% 81%  
327 4% 76%  
328 4% 72%  
329 5% 68%  
330 4% 63%  
331 6% 58%  
332 6% 52% Median
333 4% 46%  
334 6% 42%  
335 5% 36%  
336 4% 32%  
337 5% 27%  
338 3% 22%  
339 4% 19%  
340 3% 15% Last Result
341 3% 12%  
342 2% 10%  
343 2% 8%  
344 1.3% 6%  
345 1.1% 5%  
346 0.7% 4%  
347 0.6% 3%  
348 0.4% 2%  
349 0.4% 2%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.3% 1.4%  
352 0.2% 1.1%  
353 0.1% 0.9%  
354 0.1% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.7% Majority
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.5%  
358 0.1% 0.4%  
359 0.1% 0.4%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 100%  
307 0% 100%  
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.8%  
312 0.1% 99.7%  
313 0.1% 99.6%  
314 0.2% 99.4%  
315 0.4% 99.2%  
316 0.4% 98.8%  
317 0.8% 98%  
318 0.9% 98%  
319 1.4% 97%  
320 1.3% 95%  
321 1.4% 94%  
322 3% 93%  
323 2% 90%  
324 3% 88%  
325 3% 85%  
326 4% 81%  
327 4% 77%  
328 5% 73%  
329 5% 68%  
330 7% 63%  
331 4% 56% Median
332 5% 52%  
333 6% 46%  
334 3% 40%  
335 6% 37%  
336 5% 30%  
337 3% 26%  
338 5% 23%  
339 2% 18%  
340 3% 15%  
341 3% 13%  
342 2% 10%  
343 2% 8%  
344 2% 6%  
345 1.0% 5%  
346 0.8% 4%  
347 0.6% 3%  
348 0.3% 2%  
349 0.5% 2%  
350 0.2% 2%  
351 0.2% 1.4%  
352 0.2% 1.2%  
353 0.1% 1.0%  
354 0.1% 0.8%  
355 0.1% 0.7% Majority
356 0.1% 0.6%  
357 0.1% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.5%  
359 0% 0.3%  
360 0% 0.3%  
361 0% 0.3%  
362 0% 0.2%  
363 0% 0.2%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0.1% 99.6%  
295 0.1% 99.6%  
296 0.1% 99.5%  
297 0.1% 99.4%  
298 0% 99.4%  
299 0.1% 99.3%  
300 0.1% 99.3%  
301 0.1% 99.1%  
302 0.1% 99.1%  
303 0.1% 99.0%  
304 0.3% 98.9%  
305 0.1% 98.7%  
306 0.2% 98.5%  
307 0.3% 98%  
308 0.5% 98%  
309 0.5% 97%  
310 0.7% 97%  
311 0.9% 96%  
312 2% 95%  
313 2% 94%  
314 2% 92%  
315 2% 90%  
316 3% 88%  
317 4% 85%  
318 3% 81%  
319 4% 78%  
320 6% 74%  
321 5% 69%  
322 5% 64%  
323 6% 59%  
324 5% 53% Median
325 4% 48%  
326 5% 44% Last Result
327 6% 39%  
328 6% 33%  
329 4% 27%  
330 5% 23%  
331 3% 18%  
332 3% 15%  
333 2% 12%  
334 2% 10%  
335 2% 8%  
336 1.3% 6%  
337 1.5% 5%  
338 1.1% 3%  
339 0.5% 2%  
340 0.6% 2%  
341 0.5% 1.3%  
342 0.2% 0.8%  
343 0.2% 0.6%  
344 0.2% 0.4%  
345 0.1% 0.3%  
346 0.1% 0.2%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0% 99.8%  
283 0% 99.8%  
284 0% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.7%  
286 0% 99.7%  
287 0.1% 99.6%  
288 0% 99.5%  
289 0.1% 99.5%  
290 0% 99.4%  
291 0.1% 99.4%  
292 0.1% 99.3%  
293 0% 99.2%  
294 0.1% 99.1%  
295 0.1% 99.0%  
296 0.2% 98.9%  
297 0.2% 98.7%  
298 0.2% 98.6%  
299 0.2% 98%  
300 0.3% 98% Last Result
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.5% 97%  
303 1.1% 97%  
304 1.0% 96%  
305 1.4% 95%  
306 2% 93%  
307 2% 91%  
308 2% 89%  
309 4% 87%  
310 3% 83%  
311 5% 80%  
312 4% 76%  
313 6% 72%  
314 6% 66%  
315 6% 61%  
316 4% 55% Median
317 7% 51%  
318 4% 44%  
319 6% 40%  
320 5% 34%  
321 4% 30%  
322 4% 26%  
323 5% 21%  
324 3% 17%  
325 3% 14%  
326 2% 11%  
327 2% 9%  
328 2% 7%  
329 0.9% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 1.0% 3%  
332 0.4% 2%  
333 0.5% 2%  
334 0.4% 1.1%  
335 0.2% 0.7%  
336 0.2% 0.5%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 100%  
249 0.1% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0.1% 99.8%  
252 0.2% 99.8%  
253 0.2% 99.6%  
254 0.2% 99.4%  
255 0.4% 99.2%  
256 0.5% 98.8%  
257 0.6% 98%  
258 1.3% 98%  
259 1.0% 96%  
260 1.2% 95%  
261 2% 94%  
262 2% 92%  
263 3% 90%  
264 4% 87%  
265 4% 83%  
266 3% 80%  
267 6% 76%  
268 4% 70%  
269 6% 66%  
270 6% 60%  
271 4% 54% Median
272 7% 50%  
273 5% 43%  
274 5% 38%  
275 4% 32%  
276 5% 29%  
277 4% 23%  
278 4% 20%  
279 2% 16%  
280 3% 13%  
281 2% 11%  
282 2% 8%  
283 2% 7%  
284 1.0% 5%  
285 0.8% 4%  
286 0.6% 3%  
287 0.7% 3%  
288 0.4% 2%  
289 0.3% 2%  
290 0.3% 1.2%  
291 0.2% 1.0%  
292 0.1% 0.8%  
293 0.1% 0.6%  
294 0.1% 0.5%  
295 0% 0.4%  
296 0.1% 0.3%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0.1% 0.2%  
299 0% 0.2%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0.1%  
302 0% 0.1%  
303 0% 0.1%  
304 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.7%  
158 0.2% 99.5%  
159 0.4% 99.3%  
160 0.4% 98.9%  
161 0.7% 98.5%  
162 1.0% 98%  
163 1.4% 97%  
164 3% 95%  
165 3% 93%  
166 3% 90%  
167 4% 86%  
168 4% 83%  
169 5% 78%  
170 5% 73%  
171 4% 67%  
172 6% 64%  
173 6% 57% Median
174 5% 52%  
175 8% 46%  
176 6% 39%  
177 5% 32%  
178 5% 27%  
179 5% 22%  
180 4% 17%  
181 3% 13%  
182 2% 10%  
183 2% 8%  
184 1.3% 6%  
185 1.1% 5%  
186 1.0% 4%  
187 0.7% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.3% 1.4%  
190 0.4% 1.1%  
191 0.2% 0.7%  
192 0.2% 0.5%  
193 0.1% 0.3%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0.1%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 99.9%  
112 0% 99.9%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0% 99.8%  
116 0% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.1% 99.7%  
119 0.1% 99.6%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0.1% 99.4%  
122 0.1% 99.3%  
123 0.1% 99.2%  
124 0.1% 99.1%  
125 0.1% 99.1%  
126 0% 99.0%  
127 0% 99.0%  
128 0% 98.9%  
129 0% 98.9%  
130 0% 98.9%  
131 0% 98.8%  
132 0% 98.8%  
133 0% 98.8%  
134 0% 98.8%  
135 0% 98.8%  
136 0% 98.8%  
137 0% 98.8%  
138 0% 98.8%  
139 0% 98.7%  
140 0.1% 98.7%  
141 0.1% 98.7%  
142 0.1% 98.6%  
143 0.2% 98.5%  
144 0.4% 98%  
145 0.4% 98%  
146 0.7% 98%  
147 1.1% 97%  
148 1.4% 96%  
149 2% 94%  
150 3% 93%  
151 2% 90%  
152 4% 87%  
153 5% 83%  
154 6% 79%  
155 5% 73%  
156 5% 68%  
157 8% 62%  
158 7% 55% Median
159 5% 48%  
160 6% 43%  
161 6% 36%  
162 5% 30%  
163 5% 25%  
164 5% 21%  
165 3% 15%  
166 3% 13%  
167 2% 9%  
168 2% 7%  
169 1.3% 5%  
170 1.0% 4%  
171 1.0% 3%  
172 0.6% 2%  
173 0.3% 1.2%  
174 0.3% 0.8%  
175 0.2% 0.5%  
176 0.1% 0.3%  
177 0.1% 0.2%  
178 0% 0.1%  
179 0% 0.1%  
180 0% 0%  
181 0% 0%  
182 0% 0%  
183 0% 0%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations