Opinion Poll by Kantar, 26 November–2 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 26.9–30.0% 26.5–30.5% 26.2–30.8% 25.5–31.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.7–20.4% 17.3–20.8% 17.0–21.1% 16.4–21.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.5–16.7% 13.3–17.0% 12.7–17.6%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.7–9.5% 6.3–10.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.4–8.9%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.4–7.9% 5.0–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 214 202–225 200–228 197–231 192–237
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 133–153 130–156 128–159 124–163
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 104–123 102–125 100–127 96–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 68–84 66–86 64–87 61–92
Die Linke 69 61 54–67 52–70 51–71 48–75
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–60 45–62 44–64 41–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 43–56 42–58 41–60 38–63

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.7%  
191 0.1% 99.6%  
192 0.2% 99.5%  
193 0.3% 99.4%  
194 0.3% 99.1%  
195 0.4% 98.8%  
196 0.5% 98%  
197 0.6% 98%  
198 1.1% 97%  
199 1.1% 96%  
200 1.3% 95% Last Result
201 2% 94%  
202 2% 92%  
203 2% 90%  
204 2% 88%  
205 3% 85%  
206 4% 82%  
207 4% 79%  
208 3% 75%  
209 4% 72%  
210 4% 68%  
211 4% 64%  
212 5% 59%  
213 4% 55%  
214 3% 51% Median
215 4% 47%  
216 4% 43%  
217 3% 39%  
218 5% 36%  
219 4% 31%  
220 4% 27%  
221 3% 23%  
222 3% 20%  
223 2% 17%  
224 3% 15%  
225 2% 12%  
226 2% 10%  
227 1.3% 7%  
228 1.2% 6%  
229 1.1% 5%  
230 0.7% 4%  
231 0.9% 3%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.4% 2%  
234 0.3% 1.3%  
235 0.3% 1.0%  
236 0.2% 0.7%  
237 0.1% 0.5%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0.1% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 99.9%  
121 0.1% 99.9%  
122 0.1% 99.8%  
123 0.1% 99.7%  
124 0.2% 99.6%  
125 0.3% 99.3%  
126 0.5% 99.0%  
127 0.7% 98.6%  
128 1.0% 98%  
129 0.8% 97%  
130 2% 96%  
131 1.4% 94%  
132 2% 93%  
133 2% 91%  
134 3% 89%  
135 3% 86%  
136 3% 83%  
137 4% 80%  
138 4% 76%  
139 4% 72%  
140 5% 68%  
141 5% 64%  
142 6% 59%  
143 5% 53% Median
144 6% 48%  
145 5% 42%  
146 6% 37%  
147 4% 31%  
148 4% 27%  
149 4% 23%  
150 3% 19%  
151 3% 16%  
152 3% 13%  
153 2% 10%  
154 2% 8%  
155 1.4% 7%  
156 1.1% 5%  
157 1.0% 4%  
158 0.7% 3%  
159 0.7% 3%  
160 0.5% 2%  
161 0.4% 1.5%  
162 0.4% 1.1%  
163 0.2% 0.7%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.3%  
166 0.1% 0.2%  
167 0.1% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 0.3% 99.2%  
98 0.5% 99.0%  
99 0.7% 98%  
100 0.9% 98%  
101 1.4% 97%  
102 1.3% 95%  
103 2% 94%  
104 2% 92%  
105 3% 90%  
106 4% 86%  
107 3% 82%  
108 5% 79%  
109 6% 74%  
110 6% 69%  
111 5% 63%  
112 6% 59%  
113 7% 53% Median
114 4% 46%  
115 5% 42%  
116 6% 37%  
117 4% 31%  
118 5% 27%  
119 4% 23%  
120 3% 19%  
121 3% 15%  
122 2% 13%  
123 3% 10%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.3% 6%  
126 1.1% 5%  
127 1.0% 3%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.3% 2%  
130 0.4% 1.3%  
131 0.3% 0.9%  
132 0.1% 0.6%  
133 0.2% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.7% 99.0%  
64 0.9% 98%  
65 1.4% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 3% 94%  
68 3% 92%  
69 4% 89%  
70 4% 85%  
71 6% 80%  
72 6% 75%  
73 6% 68%  
74 6% 62%  
75 6% 56%  
76 8% 51% Median
77 6% 43%  
78 5% 37%  
79 6% 32%  
80 5% 26%  
81 4% 21%  
82 4% 18%  
83 4% 14%  
84 3% 10%  
85 2% 7%  
86 1.4% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.3%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 0.8% 99.0%  
50 0.7% 98%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 2% 93%  
54 4% 91%  
55 6% 88%  
56 4% 81%  
57 6% 77%  
58 8% 71%  
59 6% 63%  
60 7% 57%  
61 9% 50% Median
62 6% 42%  
63 6% 35%  
64 8% 29%  
65 5% 22%  
66 3% 17%  
67 5% 14%  
68 2% 9%  
69 1.5% 7% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.3% 4%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.1%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.6%  
42 0.6% 99.3%  
43 0.8% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 4% 94%  
47 3% 91%  
48 5% 88%  
49 5% 83%  
50 7% 78%  
51 9% 70%  
52 8% 62%  
53 8% 54% Median
54 7% 46%  
55 9% 40%  
56 5% 31%  
57 7% 26%  
58 4% 19%  
59 4% 15%  
60 3% 11%  
61 3% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.1% 4%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.4% 1.1%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.6%  
39 0.4% 99.1%  
40 0.9% 98.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 3% 95%  
43 3% 93%  
44 5% 90%  
45 6% 85%  
46 7% 79% Last Result
47 5% 72%  
48 8% 67%  
49 11% 58% Median
50 8% 47%  
51 4% 40%  
52 8% 35%  
53 8% 28%  
54 4% 20%  
55 4% 16%  
56 4% 12%  
57 2% 8%  
58 1.3% 5%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.0% 3%  
61 0.6% 2%  
62 0.3% 1.0%  
63 0.3% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 509–530 505–534 503–536 497–542
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 448–471 444–475 442–477 435–483
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 430 100% 418–442 415–445 412–448 405–454
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 406 100% 394–418 390–422 388–425 383–431
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 380–404 376–408 374–411 367–417
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 377 99.0% 365–389 361–393 358–395 352–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 5% 327–352 323–355 320–358 314–364
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 305–329 301–333 298–335 292–342
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 316 0% 304–329 301–332 298–335 292–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 297–322 294–325 291–328 285–334
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 256 0% 244–268 241–272 238–274 233–281
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 163–185 160–188 158–190 153–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 156–177 153–180 151–183 146–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 99.9%  
493 0% 99.9%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.8%  
496 0.1% 99.7%  
497 0.2% 99.6%  
498 0.2% 99.5%  
499 0.3% 99.3%  
500 0.3% 99.0%  
501 0.4% 98.7%  
502 0.7% 98%  
503 0.9% 98%  
504 0.6% 97%  
505 1.1% 96%  
506 1.2% 95%  
507 2% 94%  
508 2% 92%  
509 2% 90%  
510 2% 88%  
511 3% 85%  
512 3% 83%  
513 3% 80%  
514 3% 76%  
515 5% 73%  
516 6% 68%  
517 4% 63%  
518 3% 59%  
519 4% 56% Median
520 6% 52%  
521 4% 46%  
522 4% 42%  
523 4% 38%  
524 6% 33%  
525 3% 27%  
526 3% 24%  
527 3% 22%  
528 3% 19%  
529 2% 15%  
530 3% 13%  
531 2% 10%  
532 1.3% 7%  
533 1.2% 6%  
534 1.2% 5%  
535 0.9% 4%  
536 0.6% 3%  
537 0.9% 2%  
538 0.4% 2%  
539 0.2% 1.1%  
540 0.3% 0.9%  
541 0.1% 0.7%  
542 0.2% 0.5%  
543 0.1% 0.4%  
544 0.1% 0.3%  
545 0% 0.1%  
546 0% 0.1%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 99.9%  
431 0% 99.9%  
432 0% 99.9%  
433 0.1% 99.8%  
434 0.1% 99.7%  
435 0.2% 99.6%  
436 0.1% 99.5%  
437 0.2% 99.3%  
438 0.3% 99.2%  
439 0.6% 98.9%  
440 0.5% 98%  
441 0.4% 98%  
442 0.7% 98%  
443 0.9% 97%  
444 1.0% 96%  
445 1.1% 95%  
446 1.3% 94%  
447 2% 93%  
448 2% 90%  
449 2% 88%  
450 2% 86%  
451 3% 85%  
452 5% 82%  
453 4% 77%  
454 3% 73%  
455 3% 70%  
456 4% 67%  
457 5% 63%  
458 5% 58%  
459 3% 53% Median
460 4% 50%  
461 4% 46%  
462 4% 42%  
463 3% 38%  
464 4% 34%  
465 3% 31%  
466 4% 28%  
467 2% 23%  
468 3% 21%  
469 3% 17%  
470 3% 15%  
471 2% 12%  
472 1.2% 10%  
473 1.5% 8%  
474 1.2% 7%  
475 1.5% 6%  
476 1.1% 4%  
477 0.7% 3%  
478 0.5% 2%  
479 0.5% 2%  
480 0.3% 1.4%  
481 0.2% 1.0%  
482 0.2% 0.8%  
483 0.2% 0.6%  
484 0.1% 0.4%  
485 0.1% 0.3%  
486 0.1% 0.2%  
487 0% 0.2%  
488 0% 0.1%  
489 0% 0.1%  
490 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 99.9%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.2% 99.6%  
406 0.2% 99.5%  
407 0.2% 99.3%  
408 0.2% 99.1%  
409 0.4% 98.8%  
410 0.4% 98%  
411 0.5% 98%  
412 0.5% 98%  
413 0.9% 97%  
414 1.0% 96%  
415 1.3% 95%  
416 1.3% 94%  
417 2% 93%  
418 2% 90%  
419 2% 88%  
420 2% 87%  
421 3% 85%  
422 3% 82%  
423 4% 79%  
424 6% 75%  
425 2% 69%  
426 3% 67%  
427 4% 64%  
428 3% 59%  
429 5% 56% Median
430 3% 51%  
431 5% 47%  
432 4% 43%  
433 5% 39%  
434 3% 34%  
435 3% 31%  
436 4% 27%  
437 2% 24%  
438 4% 21%  
439 2% 18%  
440 3% 16%  
441 2% 13%  
442 2% 11%  
443 2% 9%  
444 1.3% 7%  
445 1.2% 6%  
446 1.0% 5%  
447 1.0% 4%  
448 0.6% 3%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.5% 2%  
451 0.3% 1.4%  
452 0.2% 1.0%  
453 0.3% 0.8%  
454 0.1% 0.5%  
455 0.1% 0.4%  
456 0.1% 0.3%  
457 0.1% 0.2%  
458 0% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.8%  
379 0% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.1% 99.6%  
383 0.2% 99.5%  
384 0.3% 99.3%  
385 0.3% 99.1%  
386 0.6% 98.8%  
387 0.6% 98%  
388 0.9% 98%  
389 1.0% 97%  
390 1.0% 96%  
391 1.0% 95%  
392 2% 94%  
393 1.5% 92%  
394 1.1% 91%  
395 1.4% 89%  
396 2% 88%  
397 2% 86%  
398 2% 84%  
399 3% 82%  
400 5% 78%  
401 5% 74%  
402 5% 68%  
403 5% 63%  
404 4% 58%  
405 4% 55%  
406 4% 50% Median
407 2% 47%  
408 3% 45%  
409 2% 41%  
410 2% 39%  
411 5% 37%  
412 2% 32%  
413 4% 30%  
414 4% 25%  
415 3% 22%  
416 3% 18%  
417 4% 15%  
418 2% 12%  
419 2% 10%  
420 2% 8%  
421 0.9% 6%  
422 0.9% 5%  
423 0.6% 4%  
424 0.6% 4%  
425 0.6% 3%  
426 0.4% 2%  
427 0.4% 2%  
428 0.5% 2%  
429 0.3% 1.1%  
430 0.2% 0.8%  
431 0.2% 0.6%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0.1% 0.3%  
434 0.1% 0.2%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.4% 99.1%  
371 0.4% 98.8%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.5% 98%  
374 0.7% 98%  
375 0.6% 97%  
376 1.3% 96%  
377 1.2% 95%  
378 1.2% 94%  
379 2% 92%  
380 2% 91%  
381 2% 89%  
382 2% 87%  
383 2% 84%  
384 3% 82%  
385 3% 79%  
386 3% 76%  
387 3% 73%  
388 4% 69%  
389 4% 66%  
390 4% 62%  
391 5% 57%  
392 4% 52% Median
393 3% 49%  
394 5% 46%  
395 4% 40%  
396 4% 37%  
397 3% 33%  
398 4% 30%  
399 2% 26%  
400 4% 24%  
401 2% 19%  
402 4% 18%  
403 1.4% 14%  
404 3% 12%  
405 1.1% 10%  
406 2% 9%  
407 1.0% 7%  
408 1.4% 6%  
409 0.5% 4%  
410 1.3% 4%  
411 0.4% 3%  
412 0.7% 2%  
413 0.3% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.3%  
415 0.2% 1.0%  
416 0.3% 0.8%  
417 0.1% 0.5%  
418 0.2% 0.4%  
419 0.1% 0.3%  
420 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.8%  
351 0.1% 99.7%  
352 0.2% 99.6%  
353 0.2% 99.4%  
354 0.2% 99.2%  
355 0.3% 99.0% Majority
356 0.4% 98.6%  
357 0.7% 98%  
358 0.6% 98%  
359 0.6% 97%  
360 0.6% 96%  
361 2% 96%  
362 1.4% 94%  
363 1.2% 93%  
364 1.2% 91%  
365 3% 90%  
366 2% 88%  
367 4% 86%  
368 3% 82%  
369 2% 79%  
370 3% 77%  
371 6% 75%  
372 3% 69%  
373 4% 66%  
374 4% 62%  
375 4% 59%  
376 5% 55% Median
377 4% 50%  
378 4% 46%  
379 3% 42%  
380 5% 39%  
381 5% 34%  
382 2% 29%  
383 4% 27%  
384 3% 24%  
385 3% 21%  
386 3% 18%  
387 2% 15%  
388 2% 13%  
389 2% 11%  
390 2% 9%  
391 1.0% 7%  
392 1.2% 6%  
393 1.0% 5%  
394 0.9% 4%  
395 0.7% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.3% 2%  
398 0.4% 2%  
399 0.4% 1.2% Last Result
400 0.2% 0.8%  
401 0.1% 0.7%  
402 0.2% 0.5%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0% 0.2%  
406 0% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0.1% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.7%  
314 0.1% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.2% 99.3%  
317 0.2% 99.1%  
318 0.5% 98.8%  
319 0.3% 98%  
320 0.7% 98%  
321 0.5% 97%  
322 1.1% 97%  
323 0.9% 96%  
324 1.5% 95%  
325 2% 93%  
326 2% 92%  
327 2% 90%  
328 2% 88%  
329 2% 86%  
330 3% 84%  
331 3% 81%  
332 4% 78%  
333 3% 74%  
334 4% 71%  
335 4% 67%  
336 4% 64%  
337 4% 60%  
338 4% 56%  
339 4% 52% Median
340 4% 48% Last Result
341 4% 44%  
342 4% 40%  
343 3% 36%  
344 4% 34%  
345 3% 29%  
346 4% 26%  
347 3% 22%  
348 2% 19%  
349 3% 17%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 12%  
352 2% 10%  
353 2% 8%  
354 1.3% 7%  
355 0.9% 5% Majority
356 0.9% 5%  
357 0.6% 4%  
358 0.6% 3%  
359 0.7% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.3% 1.4%  
362 0.3% 1.1%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.2% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.2% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.3% 99.5%  
294 0.2% 99.2%  
295 0.3% 99.0%  
296 0.3% 98.7%  
297 0.7% 98%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 1.3% 97%  
300 0.5% 96%  
301 1.4% 96%  
302 1.0% 94%  
303 2% 93%  
304 1.1% 91%  
305 3% 90%  
306 1.4% 88%  
307 4% 86%  
308 2% 82%  
309 4% 81%  
310 2% 76%  
311 4% 74%  
312 3% 70%  
313 4% 67%  
314 4% 63%  
315 5% 60%  
316 3% 54%  
317 4% 51% Median
318 5% 48%  
319 4% 43%  
320 4% 38%  
321 4% 34%  
322 3% 31%  
323 3% 27%  
324 3% 24%  
325 3% 21%  
326 2% 18%  
327 2% 16%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 11%  
330 2% 9%  
331 1.2% 8%  
332 1.2% 6%  
333 1.3% 5%  
334 0.6% 4%  
335 0.7% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.4% 1.2%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
284 0% 100%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.5%  
293 0.1% 99.4%  
294 0.2% 99.3%  
295 0.5% 99.0%  
296 0.4% 98.6%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.5% 98%  
299 0.9% 97%  
300 1.0% 96%  
301 0.9% 95%  
302 1.3% 94%  
303 1.5% 93%  
304 2% 92%  
305 1.5% 90%  
306 2% 88%  
307 3% 86%  
308 3% 83%  
309 4% 80%  
310 3% 76%  
311 4% 73%  
312 4% 70%  
313 3% 65%  
314 4% 62%  
315 4% 58%  
316 4% 54% Median
317 3% 50%  
318 4% 46%  
319 4% 42%  
320 3% 39%  
321 4% 35%  
322 4% 31%  
323 3% 27%  
324 4% 24%  
325 2% 21%  
326 3% 19% Last Result
327 3% 16%  
328 2% 13%  
329 1.5% 10%  
330 2% 9%  
331 2% 7%  
332 1.0% 6%  
333 0.9% 5%  
334 0.6% 4%  
335 0.8% 3%  
336 0.6% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.5%  
339 0.3% 1.2%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.1% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.3%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
277 0% 100%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.1% 99.5%  
286 0.3% 99.4%  
287 0.3% 99.1%  
288 0.3% 98.8%  
289 0.3% 98.5%  
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.7% 98%  
292 0.7% 97%  
293 0.8% 96%  
294 1.3% 95%  
295 2% 94%  
296 1.1% 93%  
297 3% 91%  
298 3% 89%  
299 2% 86%  
300 3% 85% Last Result
301 4% 82%  
302 3% 78%  
303 3% 75%  
304 4% 72%  
305 3% 68%  
306 3% 65%  
307 3% 62%  
308 6% 59%  
309 3% 53% Median
310 3% 49%  
311 3% 46%  
312 5% 43%  
313 3% 38%  
314 5% 35%  
315 4% 30%  
316 2% 25%  
317 3% 23%  
318 3% 20%  
319 3% 18%  
320 1.4% 15%  
321 3% 13%  
322 2% 10%  
323 1.3% 9%  
324 1.1% 7%  
325 2% 6%  
326 0.7% 4%  
327 0.5% 3%  
328 0.6% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.3% 2%  
331 0.2% 1.5%  
332 0.5% 1.2%  
333 0.2% 0.8%  
334 0.1% 0.6%  
335 0.1% 0.5%  
336 0.1% 0.4%  
337 0% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.2%  
339 0.1% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0% 99.9%  
229 0% 99.9%  
230 0.1% 99.8%  
231 0.1% 99.8%  
232 0.1% 99.6%  
233 0.2% 99.5%  
234 0.2% 99.4%  
235 0.4% 99.1%  
236 0.3% 98.7%  
237 0.4% 98%  
238 0.7% 98%  
239 0.9% 97%  
240 0.9% 96%  
241 1.0% 96%  
242 2% 95%  
243 2% 93%  
244 1.3% 91%  
245 2% 90%  
246 3% 88%  
247 2% 84%  
248 2% 82%  
249 3% 80%  
250 4% 77%  
251 4% 73%  
252 3% 69%  
253 4% 66%  
254 6% 62%  
255 4% 57%  
256 3% 52% Median
257 5% 49%  
258 5% 44%  
259 3% 39%  
260 3% 36%  
261 4% 33%  
262 4% 28%  
263 3% 24%  
264 3% 21%  
265 3% 19%  
266 3% 16%  
267 1.4% 13%  
268 2% 11%  
269 2% 10%  
270 2% 8%  
271 0.8% 6%  
272 0.9% 5%  
273 1.3% 4%  
274 0.6% 3%  
275 0.3% 2%  
276 0.5% 2%  
277 0.4% 2%  
278 0.4% 1.2%  
279 0.1% 0.8%  
280 0.2% 0.7%  
281 0.2% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.9%  
151 0.1% 99.8%  
152 0.2% 99.7%  
153 0.1% 99.5%  
154 0.3% 99.4%  
155 0.3% 99.1%  
156 0.6% 98.8%  
157 0.7% 98%  
158 0.9% 98%  
159 0.9% 97%  
160 1.2% 96%  
161 1.2% 95%  
162 2% 93%  
163 2% 91%  
164 2% 89%  
165 4% 87%  
166 3% 83%  
167 4% 81%  
168 3% 77%  
169 4% 74%  
170 5% 70%  
171 5% 65%  
172 4% 60%  
173 5% 55%  
174 5% 50% Median
175 5% 46%  
176 3% 40%  
177 4% 37%  
178 5% 33%  
179 4% 29%  
180 4% 25%  
181 3% 20%  
182 3% 17%  
183 2% 14%  
184 2% 12%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.2% 6%  
188 1.4% 5%  
189 0.9% 4%  
190 0.6% 3%  
191 0.6% 2%  
192 0.4% 2%  
193 0.3% 1.3%  
194 0.2% 1.0%  
195 0.2% 0.7%  
196 0.2% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0% 99.9%  
141 0% 99.9%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0.1% 99.8%  
144 0.1% 99.8%  
145 0.1% 99.7%  
146 0.2% 99.6%  
147 0.3% 99.4%  
148 0.4% 99.2%  
149 0.5% 98.8%  
150 0.6% 98%  
151 0.7% 98%  
152 1.1% 97%  
153 1.2% 96%  
154 1.3% 95%  
155 2% 93%  
156 2% 91%  
157 2% 89%  
158 4% 87%  
159 3% 83%  
160 4% 80%  
161 4% 75%  
162 5% 72%  
163 5% 67%  
164 3% 62%  
165 4% 58%  
166 5% 54% Median
167 5% 49%  
168 4% 44%  
169 6% 41%  
170 4% 35%  
171 4% 31%  
172 4% 27%  
173 4% 23%  
174 3% 19%  
175 3% 17%  
176 2% 14%  
177 2% 11%  
178 2% 10%  
179 1.3% 7%  
180 1.5% 6%  
181 1.0% 4%  
182 0.7% 3%  
183 0.7% 3%  
184 0.7% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.3%  
186 0.3% 1.1%  
187 0.2% 0.7%  
188 0.1% 0.5%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations