Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 4–7 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 27.5% 26.3–28.8% 25.9–29.2% 25.6–29.5% 25.0–30.1%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.5% 16.5–18.6% 16.2–18.9% 15.9–19.2% 15.4–19.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.5% 14.5–16.6% 14.2–16.9% 14.0–17.1% 13.5–17.7%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 9.0–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 207 198–216 195–219 193–221 188–226
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 132 124–140 122–142 120–144 116–148
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 117 109–124 107–127 105–129 102–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–82 67–84 66–86 63–89
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 55–66 53–68 52–70 50–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 61 55–66 53–68 52–70 50–73
Die Linke 69 56 51–62 49–64 48–65 46–68

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0.1% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.2% 99.7%  
189 0.3% 99.5%  
190 0.3% 99.2%  
191 0.5% 98.9%  
192 0.6% 98%  
193 0.9% 98%  
194 1.2% 97%  
195 1.4% 96%  
196 2% 94%  
197 2% 93%  
198 2% 90%  
199 3% 88%  
200 3% 85% Last Result
201 4% 81%  
202 5% 78%  
203 5% 73%  
204 6% 68%  
205 6% 63%  
206 5% 57%  
207 6% 52% Median
208 3% 46%  
209 7% 43%  
210 4% 36%  
211 4% 32%  
212 6% 28%  
213 4% 22%  
214 3% 18%  
215 3% 15%  
216 2% 12%  
217 2% 10%  
218 2% 8%  
219 1.4% 6%  
220 1.2% 5%  
221 0.9% 3%  
222 0.6% 2%  
223 0.7% 2%  
224 0.3% 1.2%  
225 0.3% 0.9%  
226 0.2% 0.6%  
227 0.1% 0.4%  
228 0.1% 0.3%  
229 0.1% 0.2%  
230 0% 0.1%  
231 0% 0.1%  
232 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 99.9%  
114 0.1% 99.9%  
115 0.2% 99.8%  
116 0.3% 99.6%  
117 0.4% 99.4%  
118 0.6% 99.0%  
119 0.7% 98%  
120 1.0% 98%  
121 2% 97%  
122 2% 95%  
123 2% 93%  
124 3% 91%  
125 4% 88%  
126 5% 84%  
127 4% 80%  
128 6% 75%  
129 6% 70%  
130 6% 64%  
131 7% 58%  
132 6% 50% Median
133 5% 44%  
134 6% 39%  
135 5% 33%  
136 5% 28%  
137 5% 23%  
138 4% 18%  
139 3% 14%  
140 3% 12%  
141 2% 8%  
142 2% 6%  
143 2% 5%  
144 1.0% 3%  
145 0.7% 2%  
146 0.5% 2%  
147 0.4% 1.0%  
148 0.2% 0.6%  
149 0.1% 0.5%  
150 0.1% 0.3%  
151 0.1% 0.2%  
152 0% 0.1%  
153 0% 0.1%  
154 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
98 0% 100%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.2% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.6%  
103 0.4% 99.4%  
104 0.6% 98.9%  
105 0.9% 98%  
106 1.1% 97%  
107 2% 96%  
108 3% 95%  
109 3% 92%  
110 3% 89%  
111 5% 86%  
112 4% 81%  
113 7% 77%  
114 7% 71%  
115 6% 64%  
116 7% 58%  
117 5% 51% Median
118 6% 46%  
119 6% 40%  
120 7% 35%  
121 5% 27%  
122 5% 22%  
123 3% 17%  
124 4% 14%  
125 3% 10%  
126 2% 7%  
127 2% 5%  
128 1.0% 4%  
129 0.9% 3%  
130 0.7% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.2%  
132 0.3% 0.8%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0.1% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 0.9% 99.0%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 95%  
69 4% 93%  
70 4% 89%  
71 5% 85%  
72 6% 80%  
73 7% 74%  
74 8% 67%  
75 9% 59% Median
76 8% 50%  
77 8% 42%  
78 6% 34%  
79 6% 28%  
80 6% 21%  
81 4% 16%  
82 3% 11%  
83 2% 8%  
84 2% 6%  
85 1.3% 4%  
86 1.0% 3%  
87 0.5% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.5%  
51 0.9% 99.0%  
52 1.2% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 5% 92%  
56 5% 87%  
57 7% 83%  
58 9% 76%  
59 9% 67%  
60 9% 58% Median
61 7% 49%  
62 8% 42%  
63 7% 33%  
64 7% 26%  
65 5% 19%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.9% 99.0%  
52 1.3% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 92%  
56 6% 88%  
57 7% 81%  
58 7% 75%  
59 8% 67%  
60 8% 59%  
61 8% 51% Median
62 10% 43%  
63 8% 33%  
64 7% 25%  
65 5% 18%  
66 4% 14%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 0.7% 99.2%  
48 1.2% 98.6%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 4% 92%  
52 6% 88%  
53 8% 83%  
54 8% 75%  
55 8% 67%  
56 10% 59% Median
57 9% 50%  
58 10% 40%  
59 6% 31%  
60 7% 24%  
61 6% 18%  
62 4% 12%  
63 2% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.4% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 516 100% 507–525 504–528 502–530 497–534
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 460 100% 450–470 448–472 445–475 440–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 445 100% 435–455 432–458 430–460 425–465
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 404 100% 394–414 391–417 388–419 383–424
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 399 100% 389–409 386–412 384–415 379–420
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 385 100% 374–395 371–398 369–400 364–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 8% 333–353 330–356 328–359 323–364
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 328 0.1% 318–339 315–341 312–344 307–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 309 0% 299–319 296–323 294–325 289–330
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 305 0% 295–315 292–318 290–321 285–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 239–258 236–261 234–264 229–269
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 178 0% 168–187 167–189 164–191 160–195
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 165–182 163–184 160–187 156–192

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 99.9%  
494 0.1% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.9%  
496 0.1% 99.8%  
497 0.2% 99.7%  
498 0.2% 99.5%  
499 0.3% 99.3%  
500 0.5% 98.9%  
501 0.6% 98%  
502 0.6% 98%  
503 0.9% 97%  
504 2% 96%  
505 2% 95%  
506 2% 93%  
507 3% 91%  
508 2% 89%  
509 3% 86%  
510 4% 83%  
511 5% 80%  
512 4% 74%  
513 5% 71%  
514 4% 65%  
515 6% 61%  
516 6% 55%  
517 5% 49% Median
518 7% 45%  
519 5% 38%  
520 6% 33%  
521 4% 27%  
522 5% 23%  
523 3% 18%  
524 4% 16%  
525 2% 12%  
526 2% 10%  
527 2% 7%  
528 1.4% 5%  
529 1.0% 4%  
530 0.8% 3%  
531 0.9% 2%  
532 0.4% 1.5%  
533 0.3% 1.0%  
534 0.2% 0.7%  
535 0.2% 0.5%  
536 0.1% 0.3%  
537 0.1% 0.2%  
538 0.1% 0.1%  
539 0% 0.1%  
540 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.8%  
439 0.2% 99.7%  
440 0.2% 99.5%  
441 0.3% 99.3%  
442 0.3% 99.1%  
443 0.5% 98.8%  
444 0.4% 98%  
445 0.6% 98%  
446 1.0% 97%  
447 0.9% 96%  
448 2% 95%  
449 2% 94%  
450 2% 92%  
451 3% 90%  
452 2% 87%  
453 4% 85%  
454 5% 80%  
455 5% 75%  
456 6% 71%  
457 3% 65%  
458 5% 62%  
459 4% 56%  
460 4% 52% Median
461 6% 48%  
462 3% 42%  
463 5% 39%  
464 5% 34%  
465 3% 29%  
466 5% 26%  
467 3% 21%  
468 5% 18%  
469 3% 13%  
470 2% 10%  
471 2% 8%  
472 1.0% 6%  
473 1.2% 5%  
474 0.7% 3%  
475 0.5% 3%  
476 0.7% 2%  
477 0.3% 2%  
478 0.4% 1.2%  
479 0.2% 0.8%  
480 0.1% 0.6%  
481 0.2% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.3%  
483 0.1% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.1%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.9%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.1% 99.7%  
425 0.2% 99.6%  
426 0.2% 99.3%  
427 0.4% 99.2%  
428 0.4% 98.7%  
429 0.7% 98%  
430 0.9% 98%  
431 1.0% 97%  
432 0.9% 96%  
433 2% 95%  
434 2% 93%  
435 1.5% 91%  
436 3% 89%  
437 2% 87%  
438 4% 84%  
439 4% 81%  
440 3% 77%  
441 5% 73%  
442 6% 69%  
443 6% 63%  
444 4% 57%  
445 4% 52% Median
446 5% 48%  
447 6% 44%  
448 5% 38%  
449 3% 33%  
450 5% 29%  
451 4% 24%  
452 3% 20%  
453 3% 17%  
454 2% 14%  
455 3% 11%  
456 2% 9%  
457 1.3% 7%  
458 1.4% 6%  
459 1.1% 4%  
460 0.9% 3%  
461 0.7% 2%  
462 0.4% 2%  
463 0.4% 1.3%  
464 0.3% 0.8%  
465 0.1% 0.6%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.2% 99.6%  
384 0.2% 99.4%  
385 0.3% 99.2%  
386 0.4% 98.9%  
387 0.5% 98%  
388 0.7% 98%  
389 0.9% 97%  
390 1.2% 96%  
391 1.2% 95%  
392 2% 94%  
393 2% 92%  
394 2% 90%  
395 3% 88%  
396 4% 86%  
397 4% 81%  
398 3% 78%  
399 5% 75%  
400 4% 70%  
401 6% 66%  
402 3% 60%  
403 6% 57% Median
404 4% 51%  
405 5% 47%  
406 3% 41%  
407 6% 38%  
408 4% 32%  
409 4% 28%  
410 3% 24%  
411 4% 21%  
412 4% 17%  
413 2% 14%  
414 2% 11%  
415 3% 9%  
416 1.2% 7%  
417 1.0% 5%  
418 1.0% 4%  
419 1.0% 3%  
420 0.6% 2% Last Result
421 0.6% 2%  
422 0.3% 1.1%  
423 0.2% 0.9%  
424 0.2% 0.7%  
425 0.2% 0.5%  
426 0.1% 0.3%  
427 0.1% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 99.9%  
375 0% 99.9%  
376 0.1% 99.9%  
377 0.1% 99.8%  
378 0.1% 99.7%  
379 0.2% 99.6%  
380 0.3% 99.4%  
381 0.3% 99.1%  
382 0.5% 98.8%  
383 0.6% 98%  
384 0.8% 98%  
385 1.3% 97%  
386 1.5% 96%  
387 1.2% 94%  
388 1.4% 93%  
389 2% 92%  
390 2% 89%  
391 3% 87%  
392 2% 84%  
393 4% 83%  
394 4% 78%  
395 5% 75%  
396 5% 69%  
397 5% 65%  
398 7% 60%  
399 3% 52%  
400 6% 49% Median
401 3% 43%  
402 5% 39%  
403 4% 34%  
404 5% 30%  
405 4% 25%  
406 3% 22%  
407 3% 19%  
408 3% 16%  
409 4% 13%  
410 1.4% 10%  
411 2% 8%  
412 1.4% 6%  
413 1.2% 5%  
414 0.9% 4%  
415 0.7% 3%  
416 0.6% 2%  
417 0.3% 1.5%  
418 0.3% 1.1%  
419 0.2% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.6%  
421 0.1% 0.4%  
422 0.1% 0.3%  
423 0.1% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.5%  
365 0.3% 99.4%  
366 0.4% 99.1%  
367 0.5% 98.7%  
368 0.7% 98%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 1.0% 97%  
371 2% 96%  
372 1.4% 94%  
373 2% 93%  
374 1.4% 91%  
375 3% 90%  
376 3% 87%  
377 4% 84%  
378 4% 80%  
379 3% 76%  
380 4% 74%  
381 5% 70%  
382 4% 65%  
383 5% 61%  
384 5% 55%  
385 5% 51% Median
386 6% 46%  
387 5% 40%  
388 4% 35%  
389 5% 31%  
390 4% 26%  
391 3% 22%  
392 4% 19%  
393 2% 15%  
394 2% 13%  
395 2% 11%  
396 2% 8%  
397 2% 7%  
398 1.0% 5%  
399 1.3% 4% Last Result
400 0.6% 3%  
401 0.7% 2%  
402 0.4% 2%  
403 0.4% 1.2%  
404 0.2% 0.8%  
405 0.1% 0.6%  
406 0.2% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.1%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.3% 99.6%  
324 0.3% 99.3%  
325 0.6% 99.0%  
326 0.4% 98%  
327 0.5% 98%  
328 0.7% 98%  
329 1.3% 97%  
330 1.3% 96%  
331 2% 94%  
332 2% 93%  
333 2% 91%  
334 2% 89%  
335 4% 87%  
336 3% 83%  
337 3% 80%  
338 3% 77%  
339 5% 73%  
340 6% 68% Last Result
341 5% 62%  
342 4% 57%  
343 5% 52% Median
344 3% 47%  
345 5% 44%  
346 6% 39%  
347 3% 33%  
348 3% 30%  
349 4% 27%  
350 4% 23%  
351 4% 19%  
352 3% 15%  
353 2% 12%  
354 2% 10%  
355 2% 8% Majority
356 2% 6%  
357 2% 5%  
358 0.5% 3%  
359 0.5% 3%  
360 0.5% 2%  
361 0.6% 2%  
362 0.3% 1.1%  
363 0.2% 0.8%  
364 0.2% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.1%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.8%  
307 0.2% 99.7%  
308 0.1% 99.5%  
309 0.2% 99.3%  
310 0.5% 99.1%  
311 0.5% 98.6%  
312 0.7% 98%  
313 0.8% 97%  
314 0.7% 97%  
315 1.2% 96%  
316 2% 95%  
317 2% 93%  
318 2% 91%  
319 3% 89%  
320 2% 86%  
321 3% 84%  
322 5% 80%  
323 5% 76%  
324 4% 71%  
325 5% 67%  
326 3% 62% Last Result
327 6% 59%  
328 6% 53% Median
329 4% 48%  
330 4% 43%  
331 5% 39%  
332 4% 34%  
333 5% 30%  
334 3% 25%  
335 3% 22%  
336 4% 18%  
337 2% 15%  
338 2% 13%  
339 3% 10%  
340 1.2% 8%  
341 2% 6%  
342 1.0% 5%  
343 0.9% 4%  
344 0.8% 3%  
345 0.5% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 1.2%  
348 0.3% 0.9%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
283 0% 100%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.8%  
288 0.2% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.6%  
290 0.3% 99.4%  
291 0.3% 99.1%  
292 0.5% 98.7%  
293 0.5% 98%  
294 1.1% 98%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 1.4% 96%  
297 2% 95%  
298 2% 93%  
299 2% 91%  
300 3% 89% Last Result
301 3% 86%  
302 3% 83%  
303 4% 80%  
304 4% 76%  
305 4% 72%  
306 4% 68%  
307 6% 64%  
308 3% 58%  
309 6% 55% Median
310 4% 49%  
311 6% 45%  
312 4% 39%  
313 6% 35%  
314 3% 29%  
315 6% 26%  
316 3% 21%  
317 3% 18%  
318 2% 15%  
319 3% 13%  
320 2% 10%  
321 2% 8%  
322 1.2% 6%  
323 1.4% 5%  
324 0.7% 4%  
325 0.9% 3%  
326 0.5% 2%  
327 0.4% 2%  
328 0.4% 1.2%  
329 0.3% 0.8%  
330 0.1% 0.5%  
331 0.2% 0.4%  
332 0.1% 0.3%  
333 0% 0.2%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0.1%  
336 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.2% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.5%  
286 0.2% 99.3%  
287 0.3% 99.1%  
288 0.6% 98.9%  
289 0.6% 98% Last Result
290 1.0% 98%  
291 1.0% 97%  
292 1.0% 96%  
293 1.2% 95%  
294 3% 93%  
295 2% 91%  
296 2% 89%  
297 4% 86%  
298 4% 83%  
299 3% 79%  
300 4% 76%  
301 4% 72%  
302 6% 68%  
303 3% 62%  
304 5% 59%  
305 4% 53% Median
306 6% 49%  
307 3% 43%  
308 6% 40%  
309 4% 34%  
310 5% 30%  
311 3% 25%  
312 4% 22%  
313 4% 19%  
314 3% 14%  
315 2% 12%  
316 2% 10%  
317 2% 8%  
318 1.2% 6%  
319 1.2% 5%  
320 0.9% 4%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.4% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.1%  
325 0.2% 0.8%  
326 0.2% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.9%  
227 0.1% 99.8%  
228 0.1% 99.7%  
229 0.2% 99.6%  
230 0.3% 99.5%  
231 0.4% 99.1%  
232 0.3% 98.7%  
233 0.8% 98%  
234 0.6% 98%  
235 1.4% 97%  
236 1.2% 96%  
237 1.5% 94%  
238 2% 93%  
239 2% 91%  
240 3% 88%  
241 3% 86%  
242 4% 82%  
243 3% 79%  
244 4% 75%  
245 6% 71%  
246 4% 65%  
247 5% 61%  
248 5% 56%  
249 6% 51% Median
250 4% 45%  
251 4% 40%  
252 5% 37%  
253 5% 32%  
254 4% 27%  
255 4% 23%  
256 4% 18%  
257 2% 15%  
258 3% 13%  
259 2% 10%  
260 1.3% 8%  
261 1.4% 6%  
262 1.2% 5%  
263 1.0% 4%  
264 0.7% 3%  
265 0.5% 2%  
266 0.4% 1.5%  
267 0.4% 1.1%  
268 0.2% 0.7%  
269 0.2% 0.5%  
270 0.1% 0.3%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0.1% 0.2%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0.1%  
275 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.7%  
160 0.1% 99.6%  
161 0.4% 99.5%  
162 0.8% 99.1%  
163 0.7% 98%  
164 0.6% 98%  
165 0.6% 97%  
166 1.1% 96%  
167 3% 95%  
168 4% 92%  
169 2% 89%  
170 1.5% 87%  
171 3% 85%  
172 5% 83%  
173 7% 77%  
174 6% 70%  
175 2% 64%  
176 3% 62%  
177 7% 59% Median
178 8% 52%  
179 10% 44%  
180 3% 34%  
181 2% 31%  
182 4% 29%  
183 6% 25%  
184 5% 19%  
185 3% 14%  
186 1.1% 11%  
187 1.5% 10%  
188 3% 9%  
189 2% 6%  
190 1.5% 4%  
191 0.4% 3%  
192 0.3% 2%  
193 0.5% 2%  
194 0.5% 1.3%  
195 0.3% 0.8%  
196 0.1% 0.5%  
197 0% 0.3%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.8%  
155 0.1% 99.7%  
156 0.3% 99.6%  
157 0.3% 99.3%  
158 0.3% 99.0%  
159 0.7% 98.6%  
160 0.8% 98%  
161 0.9% 97%  
162 1.2% 96%  
163 2% 95%  
164 2% 93%  
165 4% 91%  
166 3% 87%  
167 4% 84%  
168 6% 80%  
169 4% 74%  
170 4% 69%  
171 5% 65%  
172 5% 60%  
173 5% 55% Median
174 4% 50%  
175 5% 45%  
176 6% 40%  
177 4% 34%  
178 6% 30%  
179 5% 24%  
180 4% 19%  
181 3% 15%  
182 3% 12%  
183 2% 9%  
184 2% 7%  
185 1.1% 5%  
186 0.8% 4%  
187 0.7% 3%  
188 0.7% 2%  
189 0.4% 2%  
190 0.3% 1.2%  
191 0.3% 0.9%  
192 0.3% 0.6%  
193 0.1% 0.4%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations