Opinion Poll by Kantar, 3–9 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.3–29.6% 26.9–30.0% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.2%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.1–17.0% 14.8–17.3% 14.6–17.5% 14.1–18.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.8% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.5%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 6.0–7.3% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 214 206–223 203–226 201–228 197–232
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 143 135–151 134–153 132–155 128–159
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 113–128 111–130 110–132 106–136
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–81 68–83 67–85 64–88
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–58 47–60 45–61 43–64
Die Linke 69 53 48–58 46–60 45–61 43–63
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 44–55 44–55 43–57 41–60

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
192 0% 100%  
193 0% 99.9%  
194 0.1% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.8%  
196 0.2% 99.7%  
197 0.2% 99.5%  
198 0.4% 99.3%  
199 0.5% 98.9%  
200 0.6% 98% Last Result
201 0.8% 98%  
202 1.4% 97%  
203 2% 96%  
204 2% 94%  
205 2% 92%  
206 3% 90%  
207 4% 87%  
208 3% 83%  
209 4% 80%  
210 6% 76%  
211 5% 70%  
212 5% 65%  
213 5% 60%  
214 8% 55% Median
215 7% 47%  
216 4% 41%  
217 6% 36%  
218 5% 30%  
219 4% 25%  
220 3% 21%  
221 4% 18%  
222 3% 14%  
223 3% 11%  
224 2% 9%  
225 2% 7%  
226 1.5% 5%  
227 1.1% 4%  
228 0.7% 3%  
229 0.5% 2%  
230 0.5% 1.4%  
231 0.2% 0.9%  
232 0.3% 0.7%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.1%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.9%  
127 0.1% 99.8%  
128 0.3% 99.7%  
129 0.3% 99.4%  
130 0.7% 99.1%  
131 0.5% 98%  
132 2% 98%  
133 1.0% 96%  
134 3% 95%  
135 2% 92%  
136 4% 90%  
137 2% 86%  
138 6% 84%  
139 3% 77%  
140 7% 74%  
141 4% 67%  
142 10% 63%  
143 4% 53% Median
144 10% 49%  
145 3% 39%  
146 9% 36%  
147 4% 27%  
148 6% 23%  
149 2% 17%  
150 5% 16%  
151 1.2% 11%  
152 4% 10%  
153 0.9% 6%  
154 2% 5%  
155 0.7% 3%  
156 1.1% 2%  
157 0.3% 1.3%  
158 0.5% 1.0%  
159 0.1% 0.5%  
160 0.2% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
103 0.1% 100%  
104 0.1% 99.9%  
105 0.2% 99.8%  
106 0.3% 99.6%  
107 0.2% 99.4%  
108 0.3% 99.2%  
109 0.5% 98.9%  
110 1.3% 98%  
111 3% 97%  
112 2% 94%  
113 4% 93%  
114 3% 88%  
115 3% 85%  
116 4% 82%  
117 4% 78%  
118 7% 74%  
119 8% 68%  
120 9% 60%  
121 9% 51% Median
122 7% 41%  
123 4% 34%  
124 4% 29%  
125 3% 26%  
126 4% 22%  
127 6% 18%  
128 3% 12%  
129 3% 9%  
130 2% 6%  
131 0.7% 4%  
132 0.8% 3%  
133 0.4% 2%  
134 0.5% 2%  
135 0.5% 1.1%  
136 0.3% 0.6%  
137 0.1% 0.3%  
138 0.1% 0.2%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.6%  
65 0.8% 99.3%  
66 1.0% 98.5%  
67 2% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 3% 93%  
70 5% 90%  
71 4% 85%  
72 6% 80%  
73 8% 75%  
74 8% 66%  
75 10% 58% Median
76 9% 48%  
77 8% 40%  
78 7% 31%  
79 7% 25%  
80 5% 18%  
81 4% 13%  
82 3% 9%  
83 2% 6%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.1% 3%  
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 0.8% 99.4%  
45 1.4% 98.6%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 6% 92%  
49 6% 86%  
50 8% 80%  
51 9% 72%  
52 10% 63%  
53 10% 53% Median
54 10% 43%  
55 8% 33%  
56 6% 24%  
57 5% 18%  
58 5% 13%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.4% 1.0%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.4%  
45 2% 98.8%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 8% 88%  
50 7% 80%  
51 9% 73%  
52 10% 63%  
53 9% 53% Median
54 11% 44%  
55 8% 33%  
56 7% 25%  
57 5% 18%  
58 5% 13%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 1.3% 99.2%  
43 1.1% 98%  
44 9% 97%  
45 8% 88%  
46 4% 80% Last Result
47 11% 77%  
48 3% 66%  
49 8% 62%  
50 9% 55% Median
51 5% 45%  
52 14% 40%  
53 6% 26%  
54 9% 19%  
55 6% 10%  
56 0.8% 4%  
57 1.4% 4%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.9%  
61 0.1% 0.5%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 528 100% 519–536 517–538 515–540 511–544
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 451–469 448–472 445–474 441–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 438 100% 428–447 425–449 423–451 418–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 397–417 395–419 392–422 388–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 392 100% 383–402 380–404 378–407 373–411
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 385 100% 375–394 372–397 370–399 365–404
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 2% 330–349 327–352 325–354 320–359
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 307–327 304–329 303–331 298–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0% 307–326 305–329 302–331 298–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 307–327 305–329 302–331 298–336
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 264 0% 255–273 252–276 250–278 245–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 174 0% 165–182 163–184 161–186 157–191
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 174 0% 165–182 163–185 161–186 157–191

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0.1% 99.9%  
508 0.1% 99.9%  
509 0.1% 99.8%  
510 0.2% 99.7%  
511 0.3% 99.5%  
512 0.3% 99.2%  
513 0.4% 98.9%  
514 0.5% 98%  
515 1.0% 98%  
516 1.3% 97%  
517 1.3% 96%  
518 2% 94%  
519 3% 92%  
520 2% 89%  
521 4% 87%  
522 4% 83%  
523 5% 79%  
524 4% 74%  
525 6% 70%  
526 6% 63%  
527 6% 58%  
528 5% 52% Median
529 7% 47%  
530 5% 40%  
531 7% 35%  
532 6% 29%  
533 4% 23%  
534 4% 20%  
535 3% 15%  
536 3% 12%  
537 3% 9%  
538 2% 6%  
539 1.0% 5%  
540 1.3% 4%  
541 0.6% 2%  
542 0.6% 2%  
543 0.4% 1.2%  
544 0.3% 0.8%  
545 0.2% 0.5%  
546 0.1% 0.3%  
547 0.1% 0.2%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0.1%  
550 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.2% 99.7%  
442 0.2% 99.5%  
443 0.2% 99.2%  
444 0.8% 99.0%  
445 0.7% 98%  
446 0.7% 97%  
447 1.1% 97%  
448 2% 96%  
449 2% 94%  
450 2% 93%  
451 2% 90%  
452 3% 88%  
453 3% 85%  
454 4% 82%  
455 4% 77%  
456 5% 74%  
457 6% 69%  
458 5% 63%  
459 5% 58%  
460 5% 53% Median
461 7% 48%  
462 4% 41%  
463 6% 37%  
464 5% 31%  
465 3% 25%  
466 3% 22%  
467 5% 19%  
468 2% 14%  
469 3% 12%  
470 2% 9%  
471 2% 7%  
472 1.0% 5%  
473 1.3% 4%  
474 0.7% 3%  
475 0.7% 2%  
476 0.8% 2%  
477 0.3% 0.9%  
478 0.2% 0.6%  
479 0.2% 0.5%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
414 0% 100%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.2% 99.7%  
419 0.2% 99.5%  
420 0.2% 99.3%  
421 0.3% 99.1%  
422 0.7% 98.8%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 2% 97%  
425 1.5% 96%  
426 1.2% 94%  
427 1.5% 93%  
428 2% 91%  
429 2% 90%  
430 3% 88%  
431 5% 85%  
432 5% 80%  
433 7% 75%  
434 5% 68%  
435 4% 63%  
436 3% 60%  
437 4% 56%  
438 5% 53% Median
439 7% 48%  
440 8% 41%  
441 5% 33%  
442 4% 27%  
443 4% 23%  
444 2% 19%  
445 2% 17%  
446 2% 15%  
447 3% 13%  
448 3% 10%  
449 3% 7%  
450 1.0% 4%  
451 0.6% 3%  
452 0.6% 2%  
453 0.4% 2%  
454 0.4% 1.5%  
455 0.3% 1.1%  
456 0.3% 0.7%  
457 0.2% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.2% 99.5%  
389 0.5% 99.4%  
390 0.3% 98.9%  
391 0.4% 98.6%  
392 0.8% 98%  
393 1.1% 97%  
394 1.3% 96%  
395 0.8% 95%  
396 2% 94%  
397 3% 92%  
398 1.4% 89%  
399 2% 87%  
400 5% 85%  
401 3% 80%  
402 3% 77%  
403 5% 74%  
404 7% 69%  
405 4% 62%  
406 4% 59%  
407 7% 54% Median
408 5% 48%  
409 3% 42%  
410 5% 39%  
411 7% 34%  
412 3% 26%  
413 3% 23%  
414 5% 20%  
415 3% 15%  
416 2% 12%  
417 2% 10%  
418 2% 8%  
419 1.2% 6%  
420 0.8% 5%  
421 1.3% 4%  
422 0.9% 3%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.4% 1.5%  
425 0.4% 1.0%  
426 0.2% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.3%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 99.9%  
370 0.1% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.8%  
372 0.1% 99.7%  
373 0.2% 99.6%  
374 0.3% 99.4%  
375 0.3% 99.1%  
376 0.3% 98.8%  
377 0.7% 98%  
378 0.9% 98%  
379 0.8% 97%  
380 2% 96%  
381 2% 95%  
382 2% 93%  
383 3% 91%  
384 3% 88%  
385 3% 85%  
386 4% 82%  
387 4% 77%  
388 6% 73%  
389 5% 68%  
390 4% 62%  
391 7% 58%  
392 4% 51% Median
393 5% 47%  
394 5% 42%  
395 4% 37%  
396 4% 33%  
397 5% 29%  
398 3% 23%  
399 4% 21%  
400 3% 17%  
401 3% 14%  
402 2% 11%  
403 2% 9%  
404 2% 7%  
405 1.1% 5%  
406 1.1% 4%  
407 0.7% 3%  
408 0.6% 2%  
409 0.3% 1.3%  
410 0.4% 1.0%  
411 0.2% 0.6%  
412 0.1% 0.5%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.7%  
366 0.2% 99.5%  
367 0.3% 99.2%  
368 0.4% 99.0%  
369 0.7% 98.5%  
370 0.9% 98%  
371 0.9% 97%  
372 1.4% 96%  
373 2% 95%  
374 2% 93%  
375 2% 91%  
376 3% 89%  
377 3% 86%  
378 3% 83%  
379 5% 80%  
380 4% 75%  
381 4% 71%  
382 5% 66%  
383 6% 62%  
384 5% 56%  
385 5% 51% Median
386 5% 46%  
387 6% 41%  
388 5% 35%  
389 5% 31%  
390 4% 26%  
391 3% 21%  
392 4% 18%  
393 3% 14%  
394 2% 11%  
395 2% 9%  
396 2% 8%  
397 1.2% 5%  
398 1.0% 4%  
399 1.0% 3% Last Result
400 0.5% 2%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.3% 1.1%  
403 0.3% 0.9%  
404 0.2% 0.6%  
405 0.1% 0.4%  
406 0.1% 0.3%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0.1% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.8%  
319 0.2% 99.8%  
320 0.2% 99.6%  
321 0.3% 99.4%  
322 0.4% 99.2%  
323 0.5% 98.8%  
324 0.7% 98%  
325 0.8% 98%  
326 1.0% 97%  
327 2% 96%  
328 2% 94%  
329 2% 93%  
330 3% 91%  
331 3% 88%  
332 4% 85%  
333 4% 81%  
334 4% 78%  
335 4% 74%  
336 6% 70%  
337 6% 64%  
338 5% 58%  
339 6% 54% Median
340 5% 48% Last Result
341 5% 43%  
342 5% 38%  
343 5% 33%  
344 5% 29%  
345 3% 24%  
346 4% 21%  
347 2% 16%  
348 3% 14%  
349 2% 11%  
350 1.2% 8%  
351 2% 7%  
352 2% 5%  
353 0.7% 4%  
354 0.8% 3%  
355 0.6% 2% Majority
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.3% 1.1%  
358 0.3% 0.8%  
359 0.2% 0.5%  
360 0.1% 0.3%  
361 0.1% 0.2%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.2% 99.7%  
298 0.2% 99.5%  
299 0.3% 99.3%  
300 0.4% 99.0%  
301 0.6% 98.6%  
302 0.5% 98%  
303 0.8% 98%  
304 2% 97%  
305 1.4% 95%  
306 2% 93%  
307 2% 91%  
308 2% 89%  
309 3% 87%  
310 3% 84%  
311 6% 81%  
312 4% 75%  
313 5% 71%  
314 6% 66%  
315 4% 60%  
316 5% 56%  
317 4% 51% Median
318 6% 47%  
319 5% 41%  
320 4% 35%  
321 7% 32%  
322 4% 25%  
323 3% 21%  
324 3% 18%  
325 2% 16%  
326 3% 13% Last Result
327 2% 10%  
328 1.4% 8%  
329 3% 7%  
330 0.9% 4%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.5% 2%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.5% 2%  
335 0.4% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.2% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.2% 99.5%  
299 0.4% 99.4%  
300 0.3% 99.0%  
301 0.6% 98.7%  
302 0.7% 98%  
303 1.1% 97%  
304 1.1% 96%  
305 2% 95%  
306 2% 93%  
307 2% 91%  
308 3% 89%  
309 3% 86%  
310 4% 83%  
311 3% 79%  
312 5% 77%  
313 4% 71%  
314 4% 67%  
315 5% 63%  
316 5% 58%  
317 4% 53% Median
318 7% 49%  
319 4% 42%  
320 5% 38%  
321 6% 32%  
322 4% 27%  
323 4% 23%  
324 3% 18%  
325 3% 15%  
326 3% 12%  
327 2% 9%  
328 2% 7%  
329 2% 5%  
330 0.8% 4%  
331 0.9% 3%  
332 0.7% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.2%  
335 0.3% 0.9%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.3% 99.6%  
299 0.3% 99.3%  
300 0.5% 99.0% Last Result
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.6% 98%  
303 1.0% 97%  
304 1.3% 96%  
305 2% 95%  
306 1.5% 93%  
307 2% 92%  
308 3% 90%  
309 4% 87%  
310 3% 83%  
311 4% 80%  
312 4% 76%  
313 5% 72%  
314 6% 67%  
315 3% 61%  
316 7% 58%  
317 5% 51% Median
318 4% 46%  
319 6% 42%  
320 3% 35%  
321 6% 32%  
322 3% 26%  
323 4% 23%  
324 3% 19%  
325 4% 15%  
326 2% 12%  
327 3% 10%  
328 2% 7%  
329 1.0% 5%  
330 1.1% 4%  
331 0.9% 3%  
332 0.7% 2%  
333 0.4% 2%  
334 0.4% 1.3%  
335 0.3% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.6%  
337 0.1% 0.4%  
338 0.1% 0.3%  
339 0.1% 0.2%  
340 0.1% 0.1%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 99.9%  
242 0% 99.9%  
243 0.1% 99.9%  
244 0.1% 99.8%  
245 0.2% 99.6%  
246 0.2% 99.4%  
247 0.3% 99.2%  
248 0.6% 98.9%  
249 0.5% 98%  
250 0.8% 98%  
251 1.1% 97%  
252 2% 96%  
253 2% 94%  
254 2% 92%  
255 2% 90%  
256 3% 88%  
257 4% 85%  
258 4% 81%  
259 4% 77%  
260 5% 73%  
261 5% 68%  
262 5% 63%  
263 5% 58%  
264 5% 52% Median
265 5% 47%  
266 6% 42%  
267 6% 37%  
268 4% 31%  
269 5% 27%  
270 4% 22%  
271 3% 18%  
272 3% 15%  
273 4% 13%  
274 2% 9%  
275 1.4% 7%  
276 1.4% 5%  
277 1.0% 4%  
278 0.6% 3%  
279 0.7% 2%  
280 0.5% 2%  
281 0.3% 1.2%  
282 0.3% 0.9%  
283 0.2% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.3%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0.1% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.7%  
158 0.2% 99.5%  
159 0.5% 99.3%  
160 0.6% 98.8%  
161 1.1% 98%  
162 2% 97%  
163 2% 95%  
164 2% 94%  
165 3% 91%  
166 2% 88%  
167 3% 86%  
168 5% 83%  
169 4% 78%  
170 5% 74%  
171 6% 69%  
172 7% 63%  
173 4% 56%  
174 8% 52% Median
175 6% 45%  
176 4% 38%  
177 5% 34%  
178 5% 29%  
179 5% 24%  
180 4% 19%  
181 5% 15%  
182 2% 10%  
183 2% 8%  
184 2% 6%  
185 1.2% 4%  
186 0.7% 3%  
187 0.7% 2%  
188 0.4% 2%  
189 0.5% 1.2%  
190 0.2% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.6%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.3% 99.7%  
158 0.3% 99.4%  
159 0.4% 99.1%  
160 0.8% 98.7%  
161 1.1% 98%  
162 1.1% 97%  
163 2% 96%  
164 2% 94%  
165 2% 92%  
166 3% 90%  
167 4% 87%  
168 4% 83%  
169 6% 79%  
170 6% 73%  
171 5% 68%  
172 5% 62%  
173 7% 57%  
174 6% 50% Median
175 6% 44%  
176 6% 38%  
177 5% 33%  
178 5% 27%  
179 5% 22%  
180 3% 18%  
181 3% 15%  
182 3% 12%  
183 2% 9%  
184 2% 7%  
185 2% 5%  
186 1.0% 3%  
187 0.8% 2%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.4% 1.2%  
190 0.3% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations