Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 11–14 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.0% 27.7–30.3% 27.4–30.7% 27.1–31.1% 26.5–31.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.9–18.1% 15.7–18.4% 15.4–18.7% 14.9–19.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 217 208–227 205–230 203–232 198–237
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 120–135 117–138 115–140 112–144
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 119–135 117–138 115–140 112–144
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–82 67–83 66–85 63–88
Die Linke 69 56 51–62 49–64 48–65 46–68
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 54 48–59 48–61 43–61 43–62
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 53 47–58 46–60 44–61 42–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.2% 99.8%  
198 0.2% 99.6%  
199 0.2% 99.5%  
200 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
201 0.4% 98.9%  
202 0.5% 98%  
203 0.8% 98%  
204 2% 97%  
205 1.0% 96%  
206 1.0% 95%  
207 3% 94%  
208 3% 91%  
209 1.5% 88%  
210 4% 86%  
211 5% 83%  
212 3% 78%  
213 4% 75%  
214 8% 71%  
215 4% 64%  
216 3% 59%  
217 7% 57% Median
218 6% 50%  
219 4% 43%  
220 5% 40%  
221 6% 35%  
222 4% 29%  
223 2% 25%  
224 6% 23%  
225 3% 17%  
226 2% 13%  
227 2% 12%  
228 3% 10%  
229 2% 7%  
230 1.0% 5%  
231 1.4% 4%  
232 0.9% 3%  
233 0.4% 2%  
234 0.5% 2%  
235 0.5% 1.3%  
236 0.2% 0.8%  
237 0.1% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.4%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
108 0.1% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.6%  
113 0.4% 99.4%  
114 0.7% 98.9%  
115 1.2% 98%  
116 0.9% 97%  
117 1.2% 96%  
118 2% 95%  
119 3% 93%  
120 5% 91%  
121 5% 86%  
122 4% 81%  
123 4% 77%  
124 4% 73%  
125 6% 70%  
126 9% 63%  
127 10% 55% Median
128 6% 44%  
129 5% 38%  
130 3% 33%  
131 5% 29%  
132 4% 24%  
133 6% 21%  
134 4% 15%  
135 2% 11%  
136 1.5% 9%  
137 1.1% 8%  
138 2% 7%  
139 2% 5%  
140 1.2% 3%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.3% 1.2%  
143 0.2% 0.9%  
144 0.3% 0.7%  
145 0.2% 0.5%  
146 0.2% 0.3%  
147 0.1% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.2% 99.7%  
112 0.2% 99.5%  
113 0.4% 99.3%  
114 0.6% 98.9%  
115 1.1% 98%  
116 1.4% 97%  
117 2% 96%  
118 2% 94%  
119 3% 92%  
120 4% 90%  
121 3% 86%  
122 5% 83%  
123 5% 78%  
124 4% 73%  
125 5% 69%  
126 8% 64%  
127 6% 56% Median
128 8% 50%  
129 6% 42%  
130 5% 36%  
131 4% 31%  
132 6% 27%  
133 4% 20%  
134 3% 16%  
135 3% 13%  
136 2% 10%  
137 2% 8%  
138 2% 6%  
139 1.2% 4%  
140 0.6% 3%  
141 0.6% 2%  
142 0.4% 1.4%  
143 0.3% 1.0%  
144 0.3% 0.7%  
145 0.1% 0.3%  
146 0.1% 0.2%  
147 0.1% 0.2%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.6% 99.1%  
65 0.8% 98.6%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 3% 94%  
69 4% 91%  
70 4% 87%  
71 6% 83%  
72 9% 77%  
73 6% 68%  
74 8% 62%  
75 7% 54% Median
76 7% 47%  
77 11% 40%  
78 5% 29%  
79 5% 24%  
80 5% 19%  
81 3% 14%  
82 4% 11%  
83 2% 7%  
84 1.2% 5%  
85 1.2% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.6%  
47 0.9% 99.1%  
48 1.2% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 3% 94%  
51 4% 92%  
52 8% 88%  
53 6% 80%  
54 8% 75%  
55 9% 66%  
56 8% 57% Median
57 11% 49%  
58 6% 38%  
59 8% 32%  
60 6% 24%  
61 5% 18%  
62 4% 13%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.4% 100%  
43 2% 99.5%  
44 1.2% 97%  
45 0.1% 96%  
46 0% 96%  
47 0.2% 96%  
48 8% 96%  
49 23% 88%  
50 9% 64%  
51 0.7% 55%  
52 0% 54%  
53 0.6% 54%  
54 12% 53% Median
55 24% 41%  
56 7% 17%  
57 0.3% 10%  
58 0% 10%  
59 0.3% 10%  
60 3% 10%  
61 5% 7%  
62 0.9% 1.3%  
63 0% 0.5%  
64 0% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.7%  
43 0.7% 99.4%  
44 1.4% 98.8%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 96% Last Result
47 4% 93%  
48 6% 89%  
49 5% 83%  
50 8% 78%  
51 11% 70%  
52 8% 59%  
53 8% 51% Median
54 10% 43%  
55 9% 33%  
56 5% 24%  
57 6% 19%  
58 5% 13%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.3%  
64 0.4% 0.8%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 525 100% 516–534 513–536 510–539 506–543
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 450 100% 440–460 437–463 435–466 430–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 450 100% 440–460 437–463 435–465 430–470
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 398 100% 388–408 384–411 382–413 377–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 398 100% 387–408 384–411 382–413 377–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 398 100% 387–408 384–411 381–413 377–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 345 13% 335–355 332–359 329–361 324–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 323 0% 312–333 310–336 307–338 302–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 311 0% 301–321 298–325 296–327 290–332
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 307 0% 297–318 294–321 292–324 287–328
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 254 0% 245–265 242–268 240–270 235–275
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 176–193 172–196 169–198 165–202
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 180 0% 171–189 168–192 167–195 162–199

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.9%  
504 0.1% 99.8%  
505 0.1% 99.7%  
506 0.2% 99.6%  
507 0.3% 99.4%  
508 0.3% 99.2%  
509 0.5% 98.8%  
510 0.9% 98%  
511 0.7% 97%  
512 1.3% 97%  
513 1.4% 95%  
514 2% 94%  
515 2% 92%  
516 2% 90%  
517 3% 88%  
518 3% 85%  
519 5% 82%  
520 3% 77%  
521 5% 74%  
522 5% 68%  
523 5% 63%  
524 5% 58% Median
525 6% 53%  
526 6% 47%  
527 5% 41%  
528 5% 36%  
529 5% 31%  
530 5% 27%  
531 3% 22%  
532 4% 19%  
533 3% 14%  
534 2% 11%  
535 2% 9%  
536 2% 7%  
537 1.2% 5%  
538 1.1% 4%  
539 0.8% 3%  
540 0.5% 2%  
541 0.4% 1.3%  
542 0.3% 0.9%  
543 0.2% 0.6%  
544 0.1% 0.4%  
545 0.1% 0.3%  
546 0% 0.2%  
547 0% 0.1%  
548 0% 0.1%  
549 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0.2% 99.7%  
430 0.2% 99.5%  
431 0.3% 99.4%  
432 0.2% 99.0%  
433 0.5% 98.8%  
434 0.5% 98%  
435 0.7% 98%  
436 1.2% 97%  
437 1.2% 96%  
438 1.3% 95%  
439 2% 93%  
440 2% 91%  
441 2% 89%  
442 2% 87%  
443 4% 85%  
444 3% 81%  
445 5% 78%  
446 6% 73%  
447 3% 67%  
448 4% 64%  
449 7% 59%  
450 5% 53%  
451 3% 47% Median
452 4% 44%  
453 6% 40%  
454 5% 34%  
455 4% 30%  
456 5% 25%  
457 2% 20%  
458 4% 18%  
459 3% 14%  
460 2% 11%  
461 2% 9%  
462 1.3% 7%  
463 2% 6%  
464 0.9% 4%  
465 0.8% 3%  
466 0.8% 3%  
467 0.4% 2%  
468 0.5% 1.4%  
469 0.2% 0.9%  
470 0.2% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0.1%  
477 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0% 99.9%  
427 0.1% 99.9%  
428 0.1% 99.8%  
429 0.2% 99.7%  
430 0.1% 99.5%  
431 0.2% 99.4%  
432 0.5% 99.2%  
433 0.6% 98.6%  
434 0.4% 98%  
435 0.7% 98%  
436 1.2% 97%  
437 1.3% 96%  
438 2% 94%  
439 2% 93%  
440 2% 91%  
441 2% 89%  
442 4% 87%  
443 3% 83%  
444 3% 79%  
445 4% 76%  
446 4% 72%  
447 6% 68%  
448 5% 62%  
449 4% 57%  
450 4% 53%  
451 8% 49% Median
452 4% 41%  
453 5% 37%  
454 4% 32%  
455 3% 28%  
456 4% 25%  
457 3% 21%  
458 3% 17%  
459 2% 14%  
460 3% 12%  
461 2% 9%  
462 2% 7%  
463 1.4% 6%  
464 1.1% 4%  
465 0.7% 3%  
466 0.7% 2%  
467 0.4% 2%  
468 0.5% 1.3%  
469 0.2% 0.8%  
470 0.2% 0.6%  
471 0.1% 0.4%  
472 0.1% 0.3%  
473 0.1% 0.2%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0.1%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.9%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.2% 99.6%  
378 0.2% 99.4%  
379 0.3% 99.2%  
380 0.5% 98.9%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 0.8% 98%  
383 1.0% 97%  
384 1.2% 96%  
385 1.3% 95%  
386 1.4% 94%  
387 2% 92%  
388 2% 90%  
389 3% 88%  
390 3% 85%  
391 3% 83%  
392 5% 80%  
393 4% 75%  
394 5% 71%  
395 4% 66%  
396 5% 62%  
397 3% 57%  
398 6% 53%  
399 6% 48% Median
400 5% 42%  
401 4% 37%  
402 4% 32%  
403 5% 29%  
404 5% 24%  
405 2% 19%  
406 4% 17%  
407 2% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 2% 9%  
410 2% 7%  
411 1.0% 5%  
412 1.0% 4%  
413 0.9% 3%  
414 0.6% 2%  
415 0.4% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.4%  
417 0.3% 1.0%  
418 0.2% 0.7%  
419 0.2% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.2% 99.7%  
377 0.2% 99.5%  
378 0.3% 99.3%  
379 0.3% 99.0%  
380 0.5% 98.7%  
381 0.5% 98%  
382 1.1% 98%  
383 0.9% 97%  
384 1.3% 96%  
385 2% 94%  
386 2% 93%  
387 2% 91%  
388 3% 89%  
389 3% 87%  
390 2% 84%  
391 5% 82%  
392 3% 76%  
393 3% 73%  
394 6% 70%  
395 4% 65%  
396 5% 60%  
397 4% 55% Median
398 4% 51%  
399 4% 46%  
400 5% 43%  
401 6% 38%  
402 3% 32%  
403 5% 29%  
404 4% 24%  
405 4% 20%  
406 3% 16%  
407 2% 13%  
408 2% 11%  
409 1.1% 9%  
410 2% 8%  
411 1.2% 5%  
412 0.8% 4%  
413 0.9% 3%  
414 1.0% 2%  
415 0.4% 1.5%  
416 0.3% 1.1%  
417 0.2% 0.8%  
418 0.1% 0.6%  
419 0.2% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 99.9%  
373 0.1% 99.9%  
374 0.1% 99.8%  
375 0.1% 99.8%  
376 0.1% 99.7%  
377 0.2% 99.5%  
378 0.3% 99.4%  
379 0.4% 99.0%  
380 0.4% 98.7%  
381 0.8% 98%  
382 0.7% 97%  
383 1.1% 97%  
384 1.4% 96%  
385 1.1% 94%  
386 2% 93%  
387 2% 91%  
388 2% 89%  
389 3% 87%  
390 3% 84%  
391 4% 80%  
392 3% 77%  
393 5% 74%  
394 5% 69%  
395 4% 64%  
396 4% 60%  
397 6% 56% Median
398 6% 50%  
399 5% 44% Last Result
400 3% 39%  
401 4% 36%  
402 6% 31%  
403 4% 26%  
404 3% 22%  
405 3% 19%  
406 2% 15%  
407 2% 13%  
408 3% 11%  
409 1.0% 8%  
410 2% 7%  
411 1.2% 5%  
412 0.9% 4%  
413 1.2% 3%  
414 0.5% 2%  
415 0.3% 2%  
416 0.4% 1.2%  
417 0.2% 0.9%  
418 0.3% 0.7%  
419 0.1% 0.4%  
420 0.1% 0.3%  
421 0.1% 0.2%  
422 0.1% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.8%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.2% 99.5%  
326 0.3% 99.3%  
327 0.5% 99.0%  
328 0.6% 98.5%  
329 0.5% 98%  
330 0.8% 97%  
331 0.9% 97%  
332 2% 96%  
333 2% 94%  
334 2% 92%  
335 2% 90%  
336 2% 88%  
337 3% 86%  
338 4% 83%  
339 3% 80%  
340 3% 76% Last Result
341 4% 73%  
342 5% 69%  
343 5% 64%  
344 4% 59%  
345 6% 55% Median
346 5% 49%  
347 4% 44%  
348 5% 41%  
349 5% 35%  
350 5% 31%  
351 3% 26%  
352 5% 23%  
353 3% 18%  
354 3% 16%  
355 3% 13% Majority
356 2% 10%  
357 1.5% 8%  
358 1.3% 6%  
359 1.3% 5%  
360 1.0% 4%  
361 0.7% 3%  
362 0.6% 2%  
363 0.3% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.2%  
365 0.3% 0.9%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.2%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 99.9%  
298 0% 99.9%  
299 0.1% 99.9%  
300 0.1% 99.8%  
301 0.1% 99.7%  
302 0.2% 99.6%  
303 0.2% 99.4%  
304 0.4% 99.2%  
305 0.4% 98.8%  
306 0.4% 98%  
307 1.0% 98%  
308 0.8% 97%  
309 1.2% 96%  
310 1.5% 95%  
311 2% 94%  
312 2% 92%  
313 2% 90%  
314 3% 88%  
315 3% 85%  
316 3% 82%  
317 4% 78%  
318 5% 74%  
319 4% 69%  
320 4% 65%  
321 4% 61%  
322 5% 57%  
323 5% 52%  
324 6% 47% Median
325 5% 41%  
326 6% 36% Last Result
327 3% 31%  
328 4% 28%  
329 4% 24%  
330 3% 20%  
331 3% 17%  
332 2% 14%  
333 2% 12%  
334 2% 10%  
335 2% 8%  
336 1.5% 6%  
337 1.2% 4%  
338 0.7% 3%  
339 0.6% 2%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.4%  
342 0.3% 1.1%  
343 0.2% 0.7%  
344 0.2% 0.5%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.5%  
292 0.3% 99.3%  
293 0.4% 99.0%  
294 0.4% 98.6%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 0.9% 98%  
297 1.0% 97%  
298 1.0% 96%  
299 2% 95%  
300 2% 93%  
301 2% 91%  
302 2% 89%  
303 4% 87%  
304 2% 83%  
305 5% 81%  
306 5% 76%  
307 4% 71%  
308 4% 68%  
309 5% 63%  
310 6% 58% Median
311 6% 52%  
312 3% 47%  
313 5% 43%  
314 4% 38%  
315 5% 34%  
316 4% 29%  
317 5% 25%  
318 3% 20%  
319 3% 17%  
320 3% 15%  
321 2% 12%  
322 2% 10%  
323 1.4% 8%  
324 1.3% 6%  
325 1.2% 5%  
326 1.0% 4%  
327 0.8% 3%  
328 0.5% 2%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.3% 1.1%  
331 0.2% 0.8%  
332 0.2% 0.6%  
333 0.1% 0.4%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0% 0.1%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.8%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.2% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.5%  
288 0.2% 99.3%  
289 0.3% 99.1%  
290 0.4% 98.8%  
291 0.8% 98%  
292 1.0% 98%  
293 1.0% 97%  
294 1.0% 95%  
295 1.2% 94%  
296 2% 93%  
297 3% 91%  
298 2% 88%  
299 3% 86%  
300 3% 83% Last Result
301 3% 80%  
302 4% 77%  
303 6% 72%  
304 5% 67%  
305 3% 62%  
306 4% 59%  
307 5% 54%  
308 6% 49% Median
309 5% 43%  
310 4% 38%  
311 5% 34%  
312 3% 30%  
313 5% 26%  
314 3% 22%  
315 3% 18%  
316 2% 15%  
317 2% 13%  
318 2% 11%  
319 2% 9%  
320 1.4% 7%  
321 1.3% 5%  
322 0.9% 4%  
323 0.6% 3%  
324 0.8% 3%  
325 0.5% 2%  
326 0.4% 1.3%  
327 0.3% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0.1% 99.9%  
232 0.1% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.8%  
234 0.1% 99.7%  
235 0.1% 99.6%  
236 0.3% 99.4%  
237 0.5% 99.1%  
238 0.7% 98.7%  
239 0.5% 98%  
240 0.5% 98%  
241 1.3% 97%  
242 2% 96%  
243 2% 94%  
244 2% 92%  
245 1.5% 90%  
246 2% 89%  
247 3% 87%  
248 6% 83%  
249 4% 78%  
250 3% 73%  
251 4% 70%  
252 4% 66%  
253 7% 62%  
254 6% 55% Median
255 5% 49%  
256 3% 44%  
257 4% 41%  
258 5% 37%  
259 5% 32%  
260 6% 27%  
261 3% 21%  
262 3% 18%  
263 2% 15%  
264 3% 13%  
265 2% 11%  
266 2% 8%  
267 1.2% 6%  
268 1.0% 5%  
269 0.9% 4%  
270 1.0% 3%  
271 0.8% 2%  
272 0.4% 2%  
273 0.3% 1.1%  
274 0.2% 0.8%  
275 0.2% 0.6%  
276 0.1% 0.4%  
277 0.1% 0.3%  
278 0.1% 0.2%  
279 0% 0.1%  
280 0% 0.1%  
281 0% 0.1%  
282 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
161 0% 100%  
162 0% 99.9%  
163 0.1% 99.9%  
164 0.1% 99.8%  
165 0.2% 99.7%  
166 0.3% 99.5%  
167 0.4% 99.1%  
168 0.6% 98.7%  
169 0.7% 98%  
170 0.7% 97%  
171 1.0% 97%  
172 1.4% 96%  
173 1.4% 94%  
174 2% 93%  
175 1.0% 91%  
176 3% 90%  
177 3% 88%  
178 4% 84%  
179 5% 80%  
180 5% 75%  
181 7% 70%  
182 8% 63%  
183 7% 55% Median
184 7% 48%  
185 5% 41%  
186 6% 36%  
187 5% 30%  
188 3% 25%  
189 3% 22%  
190 2% 19%  
191 2% 16%  
192 2% 14%  
193 2% 12%  
194 2% 10%  
195 1.4% 8%  
196 2% 6%  
197 1.2% 5%  
198 1.2% 3%  
199 0.7% 2%  
200 0.5% 1.5%  
201 0.4% 1.0%  
202 0.2% 0.6%  
203 0.1% 0.4%  
204 0.1% 0.3%  
205 0.1% 0.2%  
206 0% 0.1%  
207 0% 0.1%  
208 0% 0.1%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0% 99.9%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.2% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.6%  
163 0.3% 99.4%  
164 0.3% 99.1%  
165 0.4% 98.8%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 1.1% 98%  
168 2% 97%  
169 3% 95%  
170 2% 92%  
171 2% 90%  
172 3% 88%  
173 3% 85%  
174 4% 82%  
175 6% 78%  
176 7% 71%  
177 4% 64%  
178 4% 60%  
179 4% 56%  
180 5% 52%  
181 6% 46% Median
182 7% 41%  
183 5% 34%  
184 5% 29%  
185 3% 25%  
186 3% 22%  
187 3% 19%  
188 3% 16%  
189 3% 12%  
190 2% 9%  
191 1.4% 7%  
192 1.0% 5%  
193 1.0% 4%  
194 0.8% 3%  
195 1.2% 3%  
196 0.5% 2%  
197 0.4% 1.0%  
198 0.1% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.5%  
200 0.1% 0.4%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations