Opinion Poll by Kantar, 10–16 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.3–29.7% 26.9–30.0% 26.7–30.3% 26.1–30.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 18.0–20.1% 17.7–20.4% 17.5–20.6% 17.0–21.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 17.0% 16.0–18.0% 15.8–18.3% 15.5–18.5% 15.1–19.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.8% 9.0–11.1% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.9–7.2% 5.8–7.4% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–8.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–6.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 212 203–221 201–224 199–226 195–232
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 141 134–149 132–152 130–154 127–158
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 127 119–134 118–137 116–139 113–142
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–81 67–82 66–84 64–87
Die Linke 69 60 55–65 53–67 52–68 50–71
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 44–54 43–55 42–57 40–59
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–50 39–51 38–52 0–55

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.6%  
196 0.4% 99.4%  
197 0.5% 99.0%  
198 0.6% 98.5%  
199 1.0% 98%  
200 1.1% 97% Last Result
201 2% 96%  
202 2% 94%  
203 3% 92%  
204 3% 89%  
205 3% 86%  
206 4% 83%  
207 4% 79%  
208 5% 74%  
209 5% 69%  
210 5% 64%  
211 6% 59%  
212 6% 53% Median
213 5% 47%  
214 6% 43%  
215 5% 36%  
216 5% 31%  
217 4% 27%  
218 4% 22%  
219 4% 19%  
220 3% 15%  
221 3% 12%  
222 2% 9%  
223 1.4% 7%  
224 1.5% 6%  
225 1.0% 4%  
226 0.8% 3%  
227 0.7% 2%  
228 0.4% 2%  
229 0.2% 1.3%  
230 0.2% 1.0%  
231 0.2% 0.8%  
232 0.2% 0.6%  
233 0.1% 0.4%  
234 0.1% 0.3%  
235 0.1% 0.2%  
236 0% 0.2%  
237 0% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 99.9%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.2% 99.8%  
127 0.3% 99.6%  
128 0.5% 99.3%  
129 0.6% 98.8%  
130 1.0% 98%  
131 2% 97%  
132 1.5% 96%  
133 2% 94%  
134 3% 92%  
135 3% 89%  
136 5% 86%  
137 5% 82%  
138 6% 77%  
139 6% 71%  
140 7% 64%  
141 7% 57% Median
142 5% 50%  
143 6% 45%  
144 6% 38%  
145 4% 32%  
146 6% 28%  
147 4% 22%  
148 4% 18%  
149 4% 13%  
150 2% 10%  
151 2% 7%  
152 1.4% 5%  
153 1.2% 4%  
154 0.7% 3%  
155 0.5% 2%  
156 0.6% 2%  
157 0.4% 1.0%  
158 0.2% 0.6%  
159 0.1% 0.4%  
160 0.1% 0.3%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
109 0% 100%  
110 0.1% 99.9%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.2% 99.7%  
113 0.3% 99.5%  
114 0.5% 99.2%  
115 0.9% 98.7%  
116 1.1% 98%  
117 1.4% 97%  
118 3% 95%  
119 3% 93%  
120 4% 90%  
121 3% 86%  
122 5% 83%  
123 6% 78%  
124 6% 72%  
125 7% 65%  
126 6% 59%  
127 7% 53% Median
128 6% 45%  
129 7% 39%  
130 5% 32%  
131 6% 27%  
132 4% 21%  
133 3% 17%  
134 4% 14%  
135 2% 10%  
136 2% 7%  
137 1.3% 5%  
138 1.2% 4%  
139 0.8% 3%  
140 0.6% 2%  
141 0.4% 1.2%  
142 0.3% 0.8%  
143 0.2% 0.5%  
144 0.1% 0.3%  
145 0.1% 0.2%  
146 0% 0.1%  
147 0% 0.1%  
148 0% 0.1%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.8% 99.0%  
66 1.1% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 95%  
69 4% 92%  
70 6% 88%  
71 6% 82%  
72 7% 75%  
73 9% 69%  
74 8% 60%  
75 8% 51% Median
76 8% 43%  
77 8% 35%  
78 6% 27%  
79 6% 21%  
80 5% 15%  
81 2% 10%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.1% 3%  
85 0.9% 2%  
86 0.5% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.9% 99.1%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 94%  
55 6% 91%  
56 7% 85%  
57 7% 78%  
58 8% 71%  
59 11% 63%  
60 10% 52% Median
61 7% 42%  
62 9% 35%  
63 7% 25%  
64 5% 18%  
65 5% 14%  
66 3% 9%  
67 2% 6%  
68 1.3% 4%  
69 1.2% 2% Last Result
70 0.5% 1.2%  
71 0.3% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.1%  
42 2% 98%  
43 3% 96%  
44 5% 93%  
45 5% 88%  
46 9% 83% Last Result
47 9% 74%  
48 9% 65%  
49 11% 56% Median
50 12% 45%  
51 8% 33%  
52 7% 25%  
53 6% 18%  
54 4% 12%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.2% 3%  
58 0.7% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 0% 98.6%  
2 0% 98.6%  
3 0% 98.6%  
4 0% 98.6%  
5 0% 98.6%  
6 0% 98.6%  
7 0% 98.6%  
8 0% 98.6%  
9 0% 98.6%  
10 0% 98.6%  
11 0% 98.6%  
12 0% 98.6%  
13 0% 98.6%  
14 0% 98.6%  
15 0% 98.6%  
16 0% 98.6%  
17 0% 98.6%  
18 0% 98.6%  
19 0% 98.6%  
20 0% 98.6%  
21 0% 98.6%  
22 0% 98.6%  
23 0% 98.6%  
24 0% 98.6%  
25 0% 98.6%  
26 0% 98.6%  
27 0% 98.6%  
28 0% 98.6%  
29 0% 98.6%  
30 0% 98.6%  
31 0% 98.6%  
32 0% 98.6%  
33 0% 98.6%  
34 0% 98.6%  
35 0% 98.6%  
36 0% 98.6%  
37 0.2% 98.6%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 5% 94%  
41 6% 89%  
42 9% 83%  
43 9% 75%  
44 11% 65%  
45 10% 54% Median
46 12% 44%  
47 9% 32%  
48 7% 24%  
49 6% 17%  
50 5% 11%  
51 2% 6%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 530 100% 521–538 519–541 517–544 512–567
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 448 100% 438–457 435–459 432–462 426–466
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 433 100% 424–442 420–444 417–447 411–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 403 100% 393–412 391–416 388–419 384–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 388 100% 378–398 376–401 373–404 369–418
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 381 99.6% 370–390 368–393 365–395 356–400
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 336 2% 326–346 323–349 321–352 317–362
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 328 0.4% 319–339 316–341 314–344 309–353
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 313 0% 304–323 300–326 297–328 284–332
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 306 0% 296–316 293–318 290–320 277–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 269 0% 259–278 257–281 255–284 250–290
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 187 0% 178–195 176–198 174–200 170–205
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 172 0% 163–180 160–182 158–185 133–188

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0.1% 99.9%  
510 0.1% 99.9%  
511 0.1% 99.8%  
512 0.2% 99.7%  
513 0.2% 99.5%  
514 0.4% 99.3%  
515 0.5% 99.0%  
516 0.7% 98%  
517 1.1% 98%  
518 1.0% 97%  
519 2% 96%  
520 3% 94%  
521 2% 91%  
522 3% 89%  
523 3% 86%  
524 5% 83%  
525 4% 78%  
526 4% 74%  
527 7% 70%  
528 6% 62%  
529 6% 57% Median
530 5% 51%  
531 8% 46%  
532 6% 38%  
533 3% 32%  
534 6% 29%  
535 4% 23%  
536 3% 19%  
537 4% 15%  
538 2% 11%  
539 3% 9%  
540 2% 7%  
541 1.2% 5%  
542 0.7% 4%  
543 0.7% 3%  
544 0.6% 3%  
545 0.2% 2%  
546 0.2% 2%  
547 0.1% 2%  
548 0.1% 2%  
549 0.1% 2%  
550 0% 1.5%  
551 0% 1.4%  
552 0% 1.4%  
553 0% 1.4%  
554 0% 1.4%  
555 0% 1.4%  
556 0% 1.4%  
557 0% 1.3%  
558 0% 1.3%  
559 0% 1.2%  
560 0.1% 1.2%  
561 0.1% 1.1%  
562 0.1% 1.1%  
563 0% 1.0%  
564 0.2% 0.9%  
565 0% 0.7%  
566 0.1% 0.7%  
567 0.1% 0.5%  
568 0.1% 0.5%  
569 0.1% 0.4%  
570 0.1% 0.3%  
571 0.1% 0.3%  
572 0% 0.2%  
573 0% 0.2%  
574 0% 0.1%  
575 0% 0.1%  
576 0% 0.1%  
577 0% 0.1%  
578 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0.1% 99.8%  
424 0.1% 99.7%  
425 0.1% 99.6%  
426 0.1% 99.5%  
427 0.2% 99.4%  
428 0.2% 99.2%  
429 0.2% 98.9%  
430 0.3% 98.8%  
431 0.4% 98%  
432 0.6% 98%  
433 0.9% 97%  
434 0.9% 96%  
435 1.3% 96%  
436 2% 94%  
437 2% 93%  
438 3% 91%  
439 2% 88%  
440 3% 86%  
441 4% 83%  
442 4% 79%  
443 4% 74%  
444 3% 71%  
445 5% 67%  
446 5% 62%  
447 6% 58% Median
448 5% 51%  
449 6% 47%  
450 6% 41%  
451 5% 35%  
452 4% 30%  
453 4% 26%  
454 4% 22%  
455 4% 18%  
456 3% 14%  
457 3% 11%  
458 2% 8%  
459 1.4% 6%  
460 1.2% 5%  
461 1.0% 4%  
462 0.8% 3%  
463 0.6% 2%  
464 0.4% 1.2%  
465 0.2% 0.8%  
466 0.2% 0.6%  
467 0.1% 0.4%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0.1% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 99.9%  
403 0% 99.9%  
404 0% 99.9%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0.1% 99.8%  
407 0% 99.8%  
408 0% 99.7%  
409 0.1% 99.7%  
410 0.1% 99.6%  
411 0.2% 99.5%  
412 0.2% 99.4%  
413 0.2% 99.1%  
414 0.3% 99.0%  
415 0.3% 98.7%  
416 0.6% 98%  
417 0.7% 98%  
418 0.9% 97%  
419 1.1% 96%  
420 0.8% 95%  
421 0.9% 94%  
422 1.3% 93%  
423 2% 92%  
424 3% 90%  
425 3% 88%  
426 4% 84%  
427 6% 80%  
428 4% 74%  
429 4% 70%  
430 4% 66%  
431 5% 62%  
432 7% 58%  
433 5% 50% Median
434 5% 45%  
435 5% 40%  
436 4% 35%  
437 4% 31%  
438 4% 27%  
439 4% 23%  
440 6% 20%  
441 3% 14%  
442 3% 11%  
443 2% 7%  
444 1.2% 6%  
445 0.7% 5%  
446 0.7% 4%  
447 0.7% 3%  
448 0.6% 2%  
449 0.5% 2%  
450 0.6% 1.3%  
451 0.2% 0.7%  
452 0.2% 0.5%  
453 0.1% 0.3%  
454 0.1% 0.2%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.3% 99.6%  
385 0.2% 99.3%  
386 0.4% 99.0%  
387 0.6% 98.6%  
388 0.9% 98%  
389 1.0% 97%  
390 1.1% 96%  
391 1.0% 95%  
392 2% 94%  
393 3% 92%  
394 2% 89%  
395 3% 87%  
396 3% 84%  
397 5% 80%  
398 3% 75%  
399 5% 72%  
400 4% 67%  
401 6% 63%  
402 6% 57% Median
403 5% 51%  
404 5% 46%  
405 5% 41%  
406 5% 36%  
407 5% 31%  
408 3% 26%  
409 4% 23%  
410 3% 19%  
411 4% 16%  
412 3% 12%  
413 1.3% 10%  
414 2% 9%  
415 1.5% 7%  
416 1.1% 5%  
417 0.7% 4%  
418 0.6% 3%  
419 0.4% 3%  
420 0.4% 2%  
421 0.2% 2%  
422 0.2% 2%  
423 0.2% 2%  
424 0.1% 1.3%  
425 0.1% 1.2%  
426 0.1% 1.1%  
427 0.1% 1.0%  
428 0.1% 0.9%  
429 0.1% 0.7%  
430 0.1% 0.7%  
431 0% 0.6%  
432 0.2% 0.6%  
433 0% 0.4%  
434 0.1% 0.4%  
435 0.1% 0.3%  
436 0% 0.3%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.9%  
366 0.1% 99.9%  
367 0.1% 99.8%  
368 0.2% 99.7%  
369 0.2% 99.5%  
370 0.3% 99.3%  
371 0.4% 99.0%  
372 0.4% 98.7%  
373 1.0% 98%  
374 0.7% 97%  
375 1.4% 97%  
376 2% 95%  
377 1.2% 94%  
378 3% 92%  
379 2% 90%  
380 2% 88%  
381 6% 86%  
382 4% 80%  
383 4% 76%  
384 3% 72%  
385 5% 68%  
386 8% 63%  
387 4% 56%  
388 6% 52% Median
389 4% 46%  
390 3% 41%  
391 7% 38%  
392 3% 31%  
393 5% 28%  
394 4% 23%  
395 3% 19%  
396 3% 16%  
397 2% 13%  
398 2% 11%  
399 2% 9% Last Result
400 1.1% 7%  
401 1.2% 5%  
402 0.7% 4%  
403 0.5% 4%  
404 0.7% 3%  
405 0.3% 2%  
406 0.4% 2%  
407 0.2% 2%  
408 0.1% 2%  
409 0.1% 1.4%  
410 0.1% 1.3%  
411 0.2% 1.2%  
412 0.2% 1.0%  
413 0.1% 0.8%  
414 0.1% 0.8%  
415 0.1% 0.7%  
416 0% 0.6%  
417 0.1% 0.6%  
418 0.1% 0.5%  
419 0.1% 0.5%  
420 0.1% 0.4%  
421 0% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.2%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0.1%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0.1% 99.8%  
352 0% 99.8%  
353 0.1% 99.7%  
354 0% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.1% 99.5%  
357 0.1% 99.5%  
358 0.1% 99.3%  
359 0.2% 99.3%  
360 0.2% 99.1%  
361 0.1% 98.8%  
362 0.3% 98.7%  
363 0.4% 98%  
364 0.2% 98%  
365 0.8% 98%  
366 0.9% 97%  
367 0.9% 96%  
368 2% 95%  
369 2% 93%  
370 2% 92%  
371 2% 90%  
372 2% 87%  
373 2% 85%  
374 4% 82%  
375 3% 79%  
376 4% 76%  
377 5% 72%  
378 6% 67%  
379 5% 61%  
380 5% 56%  
381 7% 51% Median
382 5% 44%  
383 5% 39%  
384 3% 34%  
385 5% 31%  
386 4% 26%  
387 4% 22%  
388 3% 19%  
389 3% 16%  
390 3% 13%  
391 3% 10%  
392 2% 7%  
393 1.3% 5%  
394 1.3% 4%  
395 0.7% 3%  
396 0.5% 2%  
397 0.3% 1.4%  
398 0.3% 1.1%  
399 0.2% 0.8%  
400 0.2% 0.6%  
401 0.1% 0.4%  
402 0.1% 0.3%  
403 0.1% 0.2%  
404 0% 0.1%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0%  
407 0% 0%  
408 0% 0%  
409 0% 0%  
410 0% 0%  
411 0% 0%  
412 0% 0%  
413 0% 0%  
414 0% 0%  
415 0% 0%  
416 0% 0%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
311 0% 100%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.9%  
314 0.1% 99.9%  
315 0.1% 99.8%  
316 0.1% 99.7%  
317 0.2% 99.5%  
318 0.3% 99.4%  
319 0.5% 99.1%  
320 0.5% 98.6%  
321 0.9% 98%  
322 1.1% 97%  
323 1.3% 96%  
324 2% 95%  
325 2% 93%  
326 2% 91%  
327 2% 89%  
328 3% 87%  
329 3% 84%  
330 4% 81%  
331 4% 77%  
332 7% 73%  
333 4% 66%  
334 5% 62%  
335 4% 57%  
336 5% 52% Median
337 6% 47%  
338 5% 41%  
339 6% 36%  
340 5% 30% Last Result
341 3% 25%  
342 3% 22%  
343 2% 19%  
344 3% 16%  
345 3% 13%  
346 2% 11%  
347 1.5% 9%  
348 2% 7%  
349 0.8% 5%  
350 0.9% 4%  
351 0.7% 3%  
352 0.4% 3%  
353 0.3% 2%  
354 0.3% 2%  
355 0.3% 2% Majority
356 0.2% 1.4%  
357 0.2% 1.2%  
358 0.1% 1.0%  
359 0.2% 0.9%  
360 0.2% 0.8%  
361 0.1% 0.6%  
362 0.1% 0.5%  
363 0.1% 0.4%  
364 0% 0.3%  
365 0.1% 0.3%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 100%  
295 0% 100%  
296 0% 100%  
297 0% 100%  
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 100%  
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 100%  
303 0% 100%  
304 0% 100%  
305 0% 99.9%  
306 0.1% 99.9%  
307 0.1% 99.8%  
308 0.1% 99.7%  
309 0.2% 99.6%  
310 0.2% 99.4%  
311 0.3% 99.2%  
312 0.3% 98.9%  
313 0.5% 98.6%  
314 0.7% 98%  
315 1.3% 97%  
316 1.3% 96%  
317 2% 95%  
318 3% 93%  
319 3% 90%  
320 3% 87%  
321 3% 84%  
322 4% 81%  
323 4% 78%  
324 5% 74%  
325 3% 69%  
326 5% 66%  
327 5% 61%  
328 7% 56% Median
329 5% 49%  
330 5% 44%  
331 6% 39%  
332 5% 33%  
333 4% 28%  
334 3% 24%  
335 4% 21%  
336 2% 18%  
337 2% 15%  
338 2% 13%  
339 2% 10%  
340 2% 8%  
341 2% 7%  
342 0.9% 5%  
343 0.9% 4%  
344 0.8% 3%  
345 0.2% 2%  
346 0.4% 2%  
347 0.3% 2%  
348 0.1% 1.3%  
349 0.2% 1.2%  
350 0.2% 0.9%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0.1% 0.7%  
353 0.1% 0.5%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0% 0.3%  
358 0.1% 0.2%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0.1%  
365 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
274 0% 100%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0% 99.8%  
280 0% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.7%  
283 0.1% 99.6%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.4%  
286 0.1% 99.2%  
287 0.1% 99.1%  
288 0.1% 99.1%  
289 0.1% 99.0%  
290 0.1% 98.9%  
291 0.1% 98.8%  
292 0.1% 98.8%  
293 0.1% 98.7%  
294 0.2% 98.5%  
295 0.3% 98%  
296 0.3% 98%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.8% 97%  
299 0.8% 96%  
300 1.2% 96% Last Result
301 1.4% 94%  
302 1.2% 93%  
303 2% 92%  
304 2% 90%  
305 2% 88%  
306 3% 86%  
307 3% 83%  
308 4% 80%  
309 4% 75%  
310 5% 71%  
311 6% 66%  
312 6% 60%  
313 4% 54% Median
314 5% 50%  
315 7% 45%  
316 6% 38%  
317 3% 32%  
318 4% 29%  
319 3% 24%  
320 4% 21%  
321 3% 17%  
322 2% 14%  
323 3% 12%  
324 2% 9%  
325 2% 7%  
326 1.3% 5%  
327 0.8% 4%  
328 1.2% 3%  
329 0.5% 2%  
330 0.4% 1.3%  
331 0.3% 1.0%  
332 0.2% 0.7%  
333 0.2% 0.5%  
334 0.1% 0.3%  
335 0.1% 0.2%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0% 0.1%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
266 0% 100%  
267 0% 99.9%  
268 0% 99.9%  
269 0% 99.9%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.8%  
272 0.1% 99.8%  
273 0.1% 99.8%  
274 0.1% 99.7%  
275 0.1% 99.6%  
276 0.1% 99.6%  
277 0.1% 99.5%  
278 0.1% 99.4%  
279 0.1% 99.3%  
280 0.2% 99.3%  
281 0.2% 99.1%  
282 0.1% 98.9%  
283 0.1% 98.9%  
284 0.1% 98.8%  
285 0.1% 98.7%  
286 0.2% 98.7%  
287 0.2% 98%  
288 0.4% 98%  
289 0.3% 98%  
290 0.7% 98%  
291 0.6% 97%  
292 0.9% 96%  
293 1.1% 95%  
294 1.0% 94%  
295 2% 93%  
296 3% 91%  
297 3% 88%  
298 3% 85%  
299 3% 82%  
300 3% 79%  
301 4% 76%  
302 6% 72%  
303 4% 67%  
304 6% 63%  
305 6% 57%  
306 4% 51% Median
307 4% 47%  
308 6% 44%  
309 4% 38%  
310 5% 34%  
311 7% 29%  
312 4% 23%  
313 4% 18%  
314 2% 15%  
315 2% 13%  
316 3% 11%  
317 2% 8%  
318 2% 6%  
319 0.8% 4%  
320 1.2% 3%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.5% 2%  
323 0.2% 1.1%  
324 0.3% 0.9%  
325 0.2% 0.6%  
326 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
327 0.1% 0.3%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 100%  
237 0% 100%  
238 0% 100%  
239 0% 100%  
240 0% 100%  
241 0% 100%  
242 0% 100%  
243 0% 100%  
244 0% 100%  
245 0% 100%  
246 0% 99.9%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0.1% 99.9%  
249 0.1% 99.7%  
250 0.3% 99.6%  
251 0.3% 99.4%  
252 0.3% 99.1%  
253 0.4% 98.7%  
254 0.7% 98%  
255 0.8% 98%  
256 2% 97%  
257 2% 95%  
258 2% 93%  
259 2% 91%  
260 2% 89%  
261 2% 87%  
262 4% 85%  
263 5% 80%  
264 5% 75%  
265 5% 70%  
266 4% 65%  
267 4% 61%  
268 5% 57% Median
269 6% 52%  
270 7% 46%  
271 6% 39%  
272 4% 33%  
273 3% 29%  
274 3% 26%  
275 4% 23%  
276 4% 19%  
277 4% 15%  
278 3% 11%  
279 2% 9%  
280 1.2% 7%  
281 1.0% 6%  
282 1.2% 5%  
283 0.9% 4%  
284 0.8% 3%  
285 0.6% 2%  
286 0.3% 1.5%  
287 0.2% 1.2%  
288 0.2% 0.9%  
289 0.2% 0.8%  
290 0.1% 0.6%  
291 0.1% 0.4%  
292 0.1% 0.4%  
293 0% 0.3%  
294 0% 0.3%  
295 0% 0.2%  
296 0% 0.2%  
297 0% 0.2%  
298 0% 0.1%  
299 0% 0.1%  
300 0% 0.1%  
301 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
166 0% 100%  
167 0.1% 99.9%  
168 0.1% 99.9%  
169 0.1% 99.7%  
170 0.2% 99.6%  
171 0.4% 99.5%  
172 0.4% 99.1%  
173 0.5% 98.7%  
174 0.9% 98%  
175 2% 97%  
176 2% 96%  
177 1.4% 94%  
178 3% 92%  
179 4% 89%  
180 3% 85%  
181 3% 82%  
182 5% 79%  
183 7% 74%  
184 4% 66%  
185 3% 62%  
186 8% 59%  
187 7% 50% Median
188 5% 43%  
189 3% 38%  
190 5% 35%  
191 8% 30%  
192 3% 22%  
193 2% 19%  
194 4% 17%  
195 3% 13%  
196 2% 10%  
197 1.4% 8%  
198 2% 6%  
199 1.2% 4%  
200 0.9% 3%  
201 0.6% 2%  
202 0.5% 2%  
203 0.4% 1.3%  
204 0.2% 0.9%  
205 0.2% 0.6%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0.1% 0.2%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 99.9%  
127 0% 99.9%  
128 0% 99.9%  
129 0% 99.8%  
130 0% 99.8%  
131 0.1% 99.8%  
132 0.1% 99.7%  
133 0.1% 99.5%  
134 0.1% 99.5%  
135 0.1% 99.3%  
136 0.1% 99.3%  
137 0.1% 99.2%  
138 0.1% 99.1%  
139 0.2% 99.1%  
140 0% 98.9%  
141 0.1% 98.9%  
142 0% 98.8%  
143 0% 98.7%  
144 0% 98.7%  
145 0% 98.7%  
146 0% 98.6%  
147 0% 98.6%  
148 0% 98.6%  
149 0% 98.6%  
150 0% 98.6%  
151 0% 98.6%  
152 0% 98.5%  
153 0% 98%  
154 0.1% 98%  
155 0.1% 98%  
156 0.3% 98%  
157 0.3% 98%  
158 0.8% 98%  
159 0.8% 97%  
160 1.3% 96%  
161 0.7% 95%  
162 2% 94%  
163 3% 92%  
164 3% 90%  
165 3% 87%  
166 5% 84%  
167 4% 78%  
168 5% 74%  
169 6% 69%  
170 5% 63%  
171 6% 58%  
172 6% 52% Median
173 8% 46%  
174 5% 38%  
175 6% 33%  
176 5% 28%  
177 4% 23%  
178 4% 19%  
179 3% 14%  
180 2% 11%  
181 2% 9%  
182 2% 7%  
183 2% 5%  
184 0.7% 3%  
185 0.8% 3%  
186 0.6% 2%  
187 0.4% 1.1%  
188 0.3% 0.7%  
189 0.1% 0.4%  
190 0.1% 0.3%  
191 0.1% 0.2%  
192 0.1% 0.1%  
193 0% 0.1%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations