Opinion Poll by Forsa, 14–18 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 30.1% 28.7–31.4% 28.4–31.8% 28.1–32.2% 27.4–32.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.9–20.2% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–20.9% 16.8–21.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.5–16.7% 13.0–17.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.9% 6.2–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.4–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 229 219–239 216–242 213–245 209–252
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 144 136–153 134–156 132–158 128–164
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 115 105–120 103–126 102–127 101–130
Alternative für Deutschland 94 61 55–67 54–69 52–71 50–74
Die Linke 69 61 56–67 54–69 52–71 50–74
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 54 49–58 46–59 44–61 42–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 41–52 40–53 39–54 0–57

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
200 0% 100% Last Result
201 0% 100%  
202 0% 100%  
203 0% 100%  
204 0% 100%  
205 0% 99.9%  
206 0.1% 99.9%  
207 0.1% 99.8%  
208 0.2% 99.7%  
209 0.2% 99.6%  
210 0.3% 99.4%  
211 0.4% 99.1%  
212 0.5% 98.8%  
213 0.8% 98%  
214 1.0% 97%  
215 0.9% 96%  
216 2% 96%  
217 1.3% 94%  
218 2% 93%  
219 2% 91%  
220 4% 89%  
221 4% 85%  
222 5% 82%  
223 5% 77%  
224 3% 72%  
225 5% 69%  
226 4% 64%  
227 5% 60%  
228 4% 55%  
229 5% 51% Median
230 7% 45%  
231 5% 38%  
232 4% 33%  
233 5% 29%  
234 3% 25%  
235 3% 21%  
236 3% 18%  
237 2% 16%  
238 3% 13%  
239 2% 10%  
240 2% 8%  
241 1.5% 7%  
242 1.0% 5%  
243 0.7% 4%  
244 0.6% 4%  
245 0.6% 3%  
246 0.6% 2%  
247 0.4% 2%  
248 0.4% 1.4%  
249 0.2% 1.0%  
250 0.1% 0.8%  
251 0.1% 0.7%  
252 0.1% 0.5%  
253 0.1% 0.4%  
254 0.1% 0.3%  
255 0% 0.3%  
256 0.1% 0.2%  
257 0.1% 0.2%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0.1%  
261 0% 0.1%  
262 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0.1% 99.9%  
126 0.1% 99.8%  
127 0.2% 99.7%  
128 0.2% 99.5%  
129 0.4% 99.3%  
130 0.4% 98.9%  
131 0.7% 98.6%  
132 1.1% 98%  
133 1.4% 97%  
134 2% 95%  
135 3% 94%  
136 2% 91%  
137 3% 89%  
138 4% 86%  
139 5% 81%  
140 4% 76%  
141 6% 72%  
142 7% 66%  
143 6% 59%  
144 5% 54% Median
145 4% 49%  
146 5% 44%  
147 6% 39%  
148 4% 33%  
149 5% 28%  
150 4% 23%  
151 3% 19%  
152 4% 16%  
153 3% 12%  
154 2% 9%  
155 2% 7%  
156 1.1% 6%  
157 1.2% 4%  
158 0.8% 3%  
159 0.6% 2%  
160 0.3% 2%  
161 0.5% 1.5%  
162 0.2% 1.0%  
163 0.2% 0.7%  
164 0.2% 0.5%  
165 0.1% 0.4%  
166 0.1% 0.3%  
167 0% 0.2%  
168 0% 0.1%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0% 99.9%  
98 0% 99.9%  
99 0.1% 99.9%  
100 0.2% 99.8%  
101 0.6% 99.6%  
102 2% 99.0%  
103 3% 97%  
104 4% 94%  
105 5% 90%  
106 3% 86%  
107 2% 83%  
108 0.7% 81%  
109 0.3% 80%  
110 0.4% 80%  
111 1.1% 80%  
112 3% 79%  
113 7% 75%  
114 13% 69%  
115 15% 56% Median
116 14% 41%  
117 9% 27%  
118 6% 18%  
119 2% 13%  
120 1.0% 11%  
121 0.5% 10%  
122 0.4% 9%  
123 0.7% 9%  
124 1.0% 8%  
125 2% 7%  
126 2% 5%  
127 1.4% 4%  
128 0.9% 2%  
129 0.6% 1.3%  
130 0.3% 0.7%  
131 0.1% 0.4%  
132 0% 0.2%  
133 0% 0.2%  
134 0% 0.2%  
135 0% 0.1%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.5% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.1%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 3% 92%  
56 5% 89%  
57 7% 84%  
58 6% 77%  
59 9% 71%  
60 8% 62%  
61 7% 53% Median
62 9% 47%  
63 8% 38%  
64 7% 29%  
65 4% 23%  
66 5% 18%  
67 4% 13%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.1%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.3%  
52 1.2% 98.6%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 3% 93%  
56 5% 90%  
57 7% 85%  
58 7% 78%  
59 8% 71%  
60 6% 63%  
61 8% 57% Median
62 11% 49%  
63 8% 38%  
64 6% 30%  
65 5% 24%  
66 6% 20%  
67 5% 14%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 1.2% 4%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.5% 99.7%  
43 0.8% 99.2%  
44 1.4% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 95% Last Result
47 2% 94%  
48 2% 92%  
49 2% 91%  
50 3% 88%  
51 6% 85%  
52 9% 79%  
53 12% 71%  
54 12% 58% Median
55 14% 46%  
56 11% 32%  
57 8% 21%  
58 5% 12%  
59 3% 7%  
60 1.3% 4%  
61 0.7% 3%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.5% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0% 98%  
8 0% 98%  
9 0% 98%  
10 0% 98%  
11 0% 98%  
12 0% 98%  
13 0% 98%  
14 0% 98%  
15 0% 98%  
16 0% 98%  
17 0% 98%  
18 0% 98%  
19 0% 98%  
20 0% 98%  
21 0% 98%  
22 0% 98%  
23 0% 98%  
24 0% 98%  
25 0% 98%  
26 0% 98%  
27 0% 98%  
28 0% 98%  
29 0% 98%  
30 0% 98%  
31 0% 98%  
32 0% 98%  
33 0% 98%  
34 0% 98%  
35 0% 98%  
36 0% 98%  
37 0% 98%  
38 0.5% 98%  
39 2% 98%  
40 3% 96%  
41 4% 93%  
42 7% 88%  
43 7% 82%  
44 9% 74%  
45 9% 65%  
46 9% 56% Median
47 9% 47%  
48 8% 38%  
49 8% 30%  
50 7% 22%  
51 5% 15%  
52 4% 10%  
53 2% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.5% 1.4%  
57 0.4% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 541 100% 531–550 529–553 527–558 522–582
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 473 100% 462–483 459–486 456–489 449–493
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 442 100% 431–453 428–456 424–458 416–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 426 100% 416–438 413–442 410–446 405–462
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 396 100% 386–407 382–412 379–415 374–429
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 389 99.8% 378–400 374–403 371–406 361–411
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 10% 333–354 329–358 327–362 322–373
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 328 0.1% 317–339 314–342 309–345 297–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0.2% 309–331 306–335 303–338 298–348
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 304 0% 293–315 290–318 286–320 270–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 258 0% 248–269 246–272 244–276 238–284
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 166–184 163–188 161–191 157–196
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 161 0% 150–168 147–172 144–174 120–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 100%  
511 0% 100%  
512 0% 100%  
513 0% 100%  
514 0% 100%  
515 0% 100%  
516 0% 100%  
517 0% 100%  
518 0% 99.9%  
519 0.1% 99.9%  
520 0.1% 99.8%  
521 0.2% 99.8%  
522 0.1% 99.6%  
523 0.3% 99.4%  
524 0.3% 99.2%  
525 0.4% 98.9%  
526 0.4% 98%  
527 1.2% 98%  
528 0.9% 97%  
529 2% 96%  
530 1.4% 94%  
531 3% 92%  
532 4% 90%  
533 3% 85%  
534 3% 83%  
535 2% 80%  
536 4% 77%  
537 6% 73%  
538 5% 67%  
539 5% 62%  
540 6% 57%  
541 8% 51%  
542 7% 43% Median
543 3% 36%  
544 4% 32%  
545 4% 29%  
546 4% 25%  
547 5% 22%  
548 3% 17%  
549 2% 14%  
550 3% 12%  
551 2% 9%  
552 1.3% 7%  
553 1.2% 6%  
554 0.6% 5%  
555 0.8% 4%  
556 0.4% 3%  
557 0.3% 3%  
558 0.2% 3%  
559 0.2% 2%  
560 0.1% 2%  
561 0.1% 2%  
562 0% 2%  
563 0% 2%  
564 0% 2%  
565 0% 2%  
566 0% 2%  
567 0% 2%  
568 0% 2%  
569 0% 2%  
570 0.1% 2%  
571 0.1% 2%  
572 0.2% 2%  
573 0.1% 1.5%  
574 0% 1.4%  
575 0% 1.4%  
576 0.1% 1.3%  
577 0.2% 1.2%  
578 0.1% 1.0%  
579 0% 0.9%  
580 0.1% 0.9%  
581 0.2% 0.8%  
582 0.1% 0.6%  
583 0.1% 0.5%  
584 0% 0.4%  
585 0% 0.3%  
586 0.1% 0.3%  
587 0.1% 0.3%  
588 0.1% 0.2%  
589 0% 0.1%  
590 0% 0.1%  
591 0% 0.1%  
592 0% 0.1%  
593 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 99.9%  
442 0% 99.9%  
443 0% 99.9%  
444 0% 99.9%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0.1% 99.8%  
447 0% 99.7%  
448 0.1% 99.7%  
449 0.2% 99.5%  
450 0.1% 99.3%  
451 0.3% 99.3%  
452 0.2% 99.0%  
453 0.4% 98.8%  
454 0.3% 98%  
455 0.5% 98%  
456 0.5% 98%  
457 0.7% 97%  
458 1.1% 96%  
459 1.0% 95%  
460 1.3% 94%  
461 2% 93%  
462 2% 91%  
463 3% 90%  
464 2% 87%  
465 3% 85%  
466 3% 81%  
467 3% 78%  
468 6% 75%  
469 5% 70%  
470 4% 65%  
471 6% 61%  
472 5% 55%  
473 6% 50% Median
474 4% 44%  
475 5% 40%  
476 5% 35%  
477 4% 30%  
478 5% 27%  
479 3% 22%  
480 3% 19%  
481 3% 16%  
482 2% 13%  
483 2% 11%  
484 2% 9%  
485 1.3% 7%  
486 1.1% 5%  
487 1.0% 4%  
488 0.8% 3%  
489 0.8% 3%  
490 0.4% 2%  
491 0.4% 1.3%  
492 0.3% 0.9%  
493 0.2% 0.6%  
494 0.2% 0.4%  
495 0.1% 0.2%  
496 0.1% 0.2%  
497 0% 0.1%  
498 0% 0.1%  
499 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0% 99.9%  
411 0% 99.9%  
412 0.1% 99.8%  
413 0.1% 99.8%  
414 0% 99.7%  
415 0.1% 99.7%  
416 0.2% 99.6%  
417 0.1% 99.5%  
418 0.1% 99.4%  
419 0.2% 99.3%  
420 0.3% 99.2%  
421 0.2% 98.9%  
422 0.3% 98.7%  
423 0.4% 98%  
424 0.5% 98%  
425 0.6% 97%  
426 0.8% 97%  
427 0.9% 96%  
428 0.9% 95%  
429 0.9% 94%  
430 2% 93%  
431 2% 92%  
432 2% 89%  
433 2% 87%  
434 2% 85%  
435 4% 82%  
436 4% 79%  
437 5% 75%  
438 3% 70%  
439 3% 67%  
440 5% 64%  
441 5% 59%  
442 6% 54%  
443 4% 48%  
444 3% 44% Median
445 4% 41%  
446 6% 37%  
447 5% 30%  
448 3% 25%  
449 3% 22%  
450 4% 19%  
451 3% 15%  
452 2% 12%  
453 3% 10%  
454 1.1% 8%  
455 1.4% 7%  
456 1.3% 5%  
457 1.0% 4%  
458 0.8% 3%  
459 0.4% 2%  
460 0.5% 2%  
461 0.3% 1.2%  
462 0.4% 0.9%  
463 0.1% 0.5%  
464 0.1% 0.4%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0.1% 0.2%  
467 0% 0.1%  
468 0% 0.1%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.7%  
405 0.1% 99.6%  
406 0.3% 99.5%  
407 0.3% 99.2%  
408 0.3% 98.9%  
409 0.4% 98.6%  
410 0.7% 98%  
411 0.7% 97%  
412 0.9% 97%  
413 1.1% 96%  
414 1.4% 95%  
415 2% 93%  
416 3% 91%  
417 2% 89%  
418 3% 86%  
419 3% 84%  
420 4% 80%  
421 3% 77%  
422 4% 74%  
423 4% 70%  
424 5% 66%  
425 5% 60%  
426 6% 55%  
427 5% 49% Median
428 6% 44%  
429 4% 38%  
430 3% 35%  
431 4% 32%  
432 4% 28%  
433 4% 24%  
434 3% 20%  
435 2% 17%  
436 3% 15%  
437 2% 12%  
438 1.1% 10%  
439 1.2% 9%  
440 1.4% 8%  
441 1.1% 6%  
442 0.8% 5%  
443 0.8% 4%  
444 0.5% 4%  
445 0.4% 3%  
446 0.4% 3%  
447 0.2% 2%  
448 0.2% 2%  
449 0.2% 2%  
450 0.1% 2%  
451 0.1% 2%  
452 0.1% 1.5%  
453 0.1% 1.3%  
454 0.1% 1.2%  
455 0.1% 1.2%  
456 0.1% 1.0%  
457 0.1% 1.0%  
458 0.1% 0.9%  
459 0.1% 0.7%  
460 0% 0.6%  
461 0.1% 0.6%  
462 0.1% 0.5%  
463 0.1% 0.4%  
464 0% 0.4%  
465 0.1% 0.3%  
466 0% 0.3%  
467 0% 0.2%  
468 0% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.2%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0.1%  
473 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 99.9%  
371 0.1% 99.9%  
372 0.1% 99.8%  
373 0.1% 99.7%  
374 0.2% 99.6%  
375 0.1% 99.5%  
376 0.2% 99.3%  
377 0.5% 99.1%  
378 0.6% 98.6%  
379 0.7% 98%  
380 0.7% 97%  
381 1.1% 97%  
382 1.0% 96%  
383 1.2% 95%  
384 2% 93%  
385 1.4% 92%  
386 1.3% 90%  
387 2% 89%  
388 2% 86%  
389 5% 84%  
390 4% 79%  
391 7% 75%  
392 4% 67%  
393 4% 63%  
394 3% 59%  
395 3% 56%  
396 4% 53%  
397 3% 49%  
398 3% 47% Median
399 3% 43% Last Result
400 7% 41%  
401 5% 34%  
402 6% 29%  
403 5% 23%  
404 4% 18%  
405 2% 14%  
406 2% 12%  
407 1.1% 10%  
408 0.9% 9%  
409 1.1% 8%  
410 0.8% 7%  
411 1.0% 6%  
412 0.9% 5%  
413 0.9% 4%  
414 0.7% 4%  
415 0.5% 3%  
416 0.4% 2%  
417 0.1% 2%  
418 0.1% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.2% 2%  
421 0.1% 1.4%  
422 0.1% 1.3%  
423 0.2% 1.2%  
424 0.2% 1.0%  
425 0.1% 0.8%  
426 0.1% 0.8%  
427 0.1% 0.7%  
428 0.1% 0.6%  
429 0% 0.5%  
430 0% 0.5%  
431 0.1% 0.4%  
432 0.1% 0.4%  
433 0% 0.3%  
434 0% 0.3%  
435 0.1% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.2%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0.1%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.8%  
357 0% 99.7%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0% 99.6%  
361 0.1% 99.5%  
362 0.1% 99.4%  
363 0.1% 99.3%  
364 0.1% 99.2%  
365 0.2% 99.1%  
366 0.2% 98.9%  
367 0.2% 98.8%  
368 0.2% 98.6%  
369 0.3% 98%  
370 0.3% 98%  
371 0.5% 98%  
372 0.6% 97%  
373 0.7% 97%  
374 0.9% 96%  
375 1.1% 95%  
376 2% 94%  
377 1.4% 92%  
378 1.2% 91%  
379 2% 90%  
380 2% 88%  
381 4% 85%  
382 4% 81%  
383 2% 78%  
384 3% 75%  
385 4% 73%  
386 7% 69%  
387 6% 62%  
388 5% 57%  
389 3% 52%  
390 4% 49% Median
391 5% 45%  
392 5% 40%  
393 5% 35%  
394 4% 30%  
395 4% 26%  
396 3% 23%  
397 3% 20%  
398 2% 16%  
399 3% 14%  
400 2% 11%  
401 2% 8%  
402 1.3% 7%  
403 1.3% 5%  
404 0.9% 4%  
405 0.7% 3%  
406 0.7% 3%  
407 0.6% 2%  
408 0.4% 1.3%  
409 0.2% 0.9%  
410 0.2% 0.7%  
411 0.2% 0.5%  
412 0.1% 0.4%  
413 0.1% 0.3%  
414 0% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0.1% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.8%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.2% 99.5%  
323 0.2% 99.3%  
324 0.3% 99.1%  
325 0.4% 98.8%  
326 0.6% 98%  
327 0.8% 98%  
328 0.7% 97%  
329 2% 96%  
330 0.9% 95%  
331 2% 94%  
332 1.4% 92%  
333 3% 90%  
334 2% 87%  
335 4% 86%  
336 2% 81%  
337 5% 79%  
338 4% 74%  
339 5% 71%  
340 3% 66% Last Result
341 6% 63%  
342 4% 58%  
343 4% 54%  
344 6% 49% Median
345 5% 44%  
346 3% 39%  
347 4% 36%  
348 5% 32%  
349 3% 26%  
350 3% 23%  
351 3% 20%  
352 3% 17%  
353 2% 14%  
354 3% 12%  
355 1.4% 10% Majority
356 1.5% 8%  
357 1.3% 7%  
358 0.8% 5%  
359 0.9% 5%  
360 0.6% 4%  
361 0.4% 3%  
362 0.5% 3%  
363 0.4% 2%  
364 0.1% 2%  
365 0.3% 2%  
366 0.2% 1.5%  
367 0.2% 1.3%  
368 0.1% 1.1%  
369 0.1% 1.0%  
370 0.1% 0.9%  
371 0.1% 0.8%  
372 0.1% 0.6%  
373 0.1% 0.5%  
374 0% 0.4%  
375 0.1% 0.4%  
376 0% 0.3%  
377 0.1% 0.3%  
378 0% 0.2%  
379 0% 0.2%  
380 0% 0.2%  
381 0% 0.1%  
382 0% 0.1%  
383 0% 0.1%  
384 0% 0.1%  
385 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
286 0% 100%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0% 99.7%  
293 0% 99.7%  
294 0% 99.6%  
295 0% 99.6%  
296 0% 99.6%  
297 0% 99.5%  
298 0.1% 99.5%  
299 0.2% 99.4%  
300 0.3% 99.2%  
301 0.2% 98.9%  
302 0.1% 98.8%  
303 0.1% 98.7%  
304 0.1% 98.6%  
305 0.1% 98%  
306 0.2% 98%  
307 0.2% 98%  
308 0.3% 98%  
309 0.3% 98%  
310 0.4% 97%  
311 0.7% 97%  
312 0.6% 96%  
313 0.7% 96%  
314 1.1% 95%  
315 1.5% 94%  
316 1.5% 92%  
317 2% 91%  
318 3% 89%  
319 3% 87%  
320 2% 84%  
321 4% 82%  
322 3% 78%  
323 4% 75%  
324 4% 71%  
325 4% 67%  
326 4% 63% Last Result
327 5% 59%  
328 4% 53%  
329 5% 50% Median
330 5% 44%  
331 4% 39%  
332 5% 35%  
333 4% 30%  
334 3% 26%  
335 5% 23%  
336 2% 18%  
337 2% 16%  
338 3% 14%  
339 2% 11%  
340 2% 9%  
341 1.4% 7%  
342 1.2% 5%  
343 0.9% 4%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.9% 3%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.4% 1.5%  
348 0.3% 1.0%  
349 0.3% 0.8%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.7%  
298 0.2% 99.6%  
299 0.2% 99.5%  
300 0.2% 99.3%  
301 0.4% 99.1%  
302 0.6% 98.7%  
303 0.7% 98%  
304 0.7% 97%  
305 0.9% 97%  
306 1.3% 96%  
307 1.3% 95%  
308 2% 93%  
309 2% 92%  
310 3% 89%  
311 2% 86%  
312 3% 84%  
313 3% 80%  
314 4% 77%  
315 4% 74%  
316 5% 70%  
317 5% 65%  
318 5% 60%  
319 4% 55%  
320 3% 51% Median
321 5% 48%  
322 6% 43%  
323 7% 38%  
324 4% 31%  
325 3% 27%  
326 2% 25%  
327 4% 22%  
328 4% 19%  
329 2% 15%  
330 2% 12%  
331 1.2% 10%  
332 1.4% 9%  
333 2% 8%  
334 1.1% 6%  
335 0.9% 5%  
336 0.7% 4%  
337 0.6% 3%  
338 0.5% 3%  
339 0.3% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.2% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.4%  
343 0.2% 1.2%  
344 0.2% 1.1%  
345 0.1% 0.9%  
346 0.1% 0.8%  
347 0.1% 0.7%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0% 0.5%  
350 0.1% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.3%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
260 0% 100%  
261 0% 99.9%  
262 0% 99.9%  
263 0% 99.9%  
264 0% 99.9%  
265 0% 99.8%  
266 0% 99.8%  
267 0.1% 99.8%  
268 0% 99.7%  
269 0.1% 99.6%  
270 0.1% 99.6%  
271 0.1% 99.5%  
272 0.1% 99.4%  
273 0.1% 99.3%  
274 0% 99.2%  
275 0% 99.1%  
276 0.1% 99.1%  
277 0.1% 99.0%  
278 0.1% 98.9%  
279 0.1% 98.8%  
280 0.1% 98.7%  
281 0.2% 98.6%  
282 0.2% 98%  
283 0.2% 98%  
284 0.2% 98%  
285 0.2% 98%  
286 0.4% 98%  
287 0.7% 97%  
288 0.8% 97%  
289 0.6% 96%  
290 0.7% 95%  
291 1.3% 94%  
292 2% 93%  
293 2% 91%  
294 2% 90%  
295 1.3% 88%  
296 2% 86%  
297 4% 85%  
298 3% 80%  
299 4% 77%  
300 4% 73% Last Result
301 3% 69%  
302 5% 65%  
303 7% 61%  
304 5% 54%  
305 4% 49% Median
306 4% 45%  
307 3% 41%  
308 6% 38%  
309 4% 32%  
310 5% 28%  
311 2% 23%  
312 3% 21%  
313 5% 18%  
314 3% 13%  
315 2% 10%  
316 1.3% 8%  
317 2% 7%  
318 2% 6%  
319 1.0% 4%  
320 0.6% 3%  
321 0.4% 2%  
322 0.4% 2%  
323 0.6% 2%  
324 0.3% 1.1%  
325 0.2% 0.7%  
326 0.1% 0.5%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0.1% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.7%  
238 0.2% 99.7%  
239 0.2% 99.5%  
240 0.3% 99.3%  
241 0.3% 99.0%  
242 0.5% 98.6%  
243 0.6% 98%  
244 1.1% 98%  
245 1.3% 97%  
246 2% 95%  
247 1.5% 93%  
248 2% 92%  
249 3% 90%  
250 2% 87%  
251 2% 85%  
252 4% 83%  
253 3% 79%  
254 5% 76%  
255 8% 71%  
256 5% 63%  
257 5% 58%  
258 4% 53%  
259 4% 49% Median
260 4% 45%  
261 4% 41%  
262 6% 37%  
263 4% 31%  
264 4% 26%  
265 4% 23%  
266 4% 19%  
267 3% 15%  
268 2% 12%  
269 2% 10%  
270 1.2% 9%  
271 1.3% 7%  
272 1.3% 6%  
273 1.0% 5%  
274 0.7% 4%  
275 0.6% 3%  
276 0.4% 3%  
277 0.3% 2%  
278 0.4% 2%  
279 0.2% 1.5%  
280 0.2% 1.3%  
281 0.2% 1.1%  
282 0.2% 0.8%  
283 0.1% 0.7%  
284 0.1% 0.6%  
285 0.1% 0.4%  
286 0.1% 0.4%  
287 0.1% 0.3%  
288 0.1% 0.3%  
289 0.1% 0.2%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
152 0% 100%  
153 0% 99.9%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.8%  
156 0.2% 99.7%  
157 0.2% 99.5%  
158 0.3% 99.3%  
159 0.6% 99.0%  
160 0.6% 98%  
161 0.8% 98%  
162 1.1% 97%  
163 1.3% 96%  
164 1.2% 95%  
165 2% 93%  
166 2% 91%  
167 2% 89%  
168 4% 87%  
169 3% 83%  
170 5% 80%  
171 4% 75%  
172 5% 71%  
173 4% 65%  
174 5% 61%  
175 7% 56%  
176 4% 50% Median
177 7% 45%  
178 6% 38%  
179 3% 33%  
180 6% 29%  
181 5% 24%  
182 3% 19%  
183 3% 15%  
184 3% 13%  
185 2% 10%  
186 2% 8%  
187 1.4% 7%  
188 1.0% 5%  
189 0.9% 4%  
190 0.6% 3%  
191 0.6% 3%  
192 0.5% 2%  
193 0.4% 1.5%  
194 0.3% 1.0%  
195 0.1% 0.7%  
196 0.1% 0.6%  
197 0.2% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.3%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
110 0.1% 100%  
111 0.1% 99.9%  
112 0.1% 99.8%  
113 0.1% 99.7%  
114 0.1% 99.7%  
115 0% 99.6%  
116 0% 99.6%  
117 0% 99.6%  
118 0% 99.6%  
119 0% 99.6%  
120 0.1% 99.5%  
121 0.1% 99.5%  
122 0.2% 99.3%  
123 0.3% 99.1%  
124 0.2% 98.8%  
125 0.2% 98.6%  
126 0.1% 98%  
127 0.1% 98%  
128 0% 98%  
129 0% 98%  
130 0% 98%  
131 0% 98%  
132 0% 98%  
133 0% 98%  
134 0% 98%  
135 0% 98%  
136 0% 98%  
137 0% 98%  
138 0% 98%  
139 0% 98%  
140 0% 98%  
141 0% 98%  
142 0.1% 98%  
143 0.3% 98%  
144 0.3% 98%  
145 0.6% 97%  
146 0.7% 97%  
147 2% 96%  
148 2% 94%  
149 1.5% 92%  
150 2% 91%  
151 2% 89%  
152 2% 86%  
153 2% 84%  
154 2% 82%  
155 2% 80%  
156 3% 78%  
157 5% 75%  
158 4% 70%  
159 6% 66%  
160 9% 60%  
161 7% 51% Median
162 8% 44%  
163 6% 37%  
164 7% 31%  
165 5% 24%  
166 5% 19%  
167 2% 14%  
168 2% 12%  
169 2% 10%  
170 1.5% 8%  
171 0.9% 6%  
172 1.1% 5%  
173 1.0% 4%  
174 0.9% 3%  
175 0.6% 2%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.5% 1.3%  
178 0.4% 0.9%  
179 0.2% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.1%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations