Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 18–21 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.2–29.7% 26.8–30.1% 26.5–30.4% 25.9–31.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 16.5% 15.5–17.6% 15.2–17.9% 15.0–18.2% 14.5–18.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 16.0% 15.0–17.1% 14.7–17.4% 14.5–17.7% 14.0–18.2%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 5.9–7.3% 5.7–7.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 214 205–223 202–226 200–229 195–233
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 125 117–132 114–135 112–136 109–141
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 121 113–128 111–131 109–133 106–137
Alternative für Deutschland 94 83 77–90 75–92 73–93 70–97
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 60 55–66 53–68 52–69 49–73
Die Linke 69 57 51–62 50–64 48–66 46–69
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 49 45–55 44–56 42–58 40–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
190 0% 100%  
191 0% 99.9%  
192 0% 99.9%  
193 0.1% 99.9%  
194 0.2% 99.8%  
195 0.2% 99.6%  
196 0.3% 99.4%  
197 0.4% 99.2%  
198 0.4% 98.7%  
199 0.6% 98%  
200 1.0% 98% Last Result
201 1.1% 97%  
202 1.2% 96%  
203 2% 94%  
204 2% 92%  
205 2% 90%  
206 3% 88%  
207 4% 85%  
208 4% 81%  
209 4% 76%  
210 6% 73%  
211 3% 67%  
212 6% 63%  
213 5% 57%  
214 6% 52% Median
215 4% 46%  
216 7% 42%  
217 4% 35%  
218 3% 31%  
219 5% 28%  
220 4% 23%  
221 3% 19%  
222 4% 17%  
223 3% 13%  
224 1.3% 10%  
225 2% 8%  
226 2% 6%  
227 1.0% 4%  
228 0.8% 3%  
229 0.9% 3%  
230 0.4% 2%  
231 0.5% 1.4%  
232 0.3% 0.9%  
233 0.2% 0.7%  
234 0.1% 0.5%  
235 0.1% 0.3%  
236 0.1% 0.2%  
237 0.1% 0.1%  
238 0% 0.1%  
239 0% 0.1%  
240 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 99.9%  
107 0.1% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.8%  
109 0.2% 99.6%  
110 0.4% 99.4%  
111 0.6% 99.0%  
112 1.1% 98%  
113 0.9% 97%  
114 2% 96%  
115 2% 95%  
116 3% 93%  
117 3% 90%  
118 4% 88%  
119 5% 84%  
120 3% 78%  
121 7% 75%  
122 5% 68%  
123 7% 63%  
124 6% 56%  
125 8% 50% Median
126 6% 42%  
127 6% 36%  
128 5% 30%  
129 4% 25%  
130 6% 21%  
131 3% 15%  
132 3% 12%  
133 2% 9%  
134 2% 7%  
135 1.3% 5%  
136 1.4% 4%  
137 0.8% 2%  
138 0.4% 2%  
139 0.5% 1.3%  
140 0.2% 0.8%  
141 0.2% 0.5%  
142 0.1% 0.3%  
143 0.1% 0.3%  
144 0% 0.1%  
145 0% 0.1%  
146 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 0.4% 99.3%  
108 0.9% 98.8%  
109 1.0% 98%  
110 0.9% 97%  
111 2% 96%  
112 3% 94%  
113 3% 91%  
114 3% 88%  
115 5% 86%  
116 6% 81%  
117 6% 75%  
118 5% 69%  
119 5% 64%  
120 8% 58%  
121 6% 51% Median
122 7% 44%  
123 6% 38%  
124 5% 31%  
125 5% 26%  
126 4% 21%  
127 4% 17%  
128 3% 13%  
129 2% 10%  
130 3% 8%  
131 2% 5%  
132 1.3% 4%  
133 0.6% 3%  
134 0.6% 2%  
135 0.6% 1.4%  
136 0.3% 0.8%  
137 0.2% 0.5%  
138 0.1% 0.4%  
139 0.1% 0.2%  
140 0.1% 0.1%  
141 0% 0.1%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 98.9%  
73 1.0% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 2% 95%  
76 3% 93%  
77 5% 90%  
78 4% 85%  
79 7% 81%  
80 5% 73%  
81 8% 69%  
82 6% 60%  
83 8% 54% Median
84 7% 46%  
85 7% 39%  
86 7% 32%  
87 5% 25%  
88 5% 20%  
89 3% 15%  
90 4% 11%  
91 2% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 1.2% 4%  
94 0.9% 2% Last Result
95 0.6% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.0%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.5%  
51 1.2% 98.9%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 2% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 5% 91%  
56 7% 87%  
57 8% 80%  
58 7% 72%  
59 7% 65%  
60 9% 58% Median
61 9% 49%  
62 9% 40%  
63 9% 31%  
64 4% 23%  
65 4% 18%  
66 4% 14%  
67 4% 10%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.7%  
47 0.7% 99.3%  
48 1.2% 98.6%  
49 2% 97%  
50 3% 95%  
51 4% 92%  
52 5% 88%  
53 8% 83%  
54 6% 76%  
55 9% 70%  
56 9% 60%  
57 9% 51% Median
58 10% 43%  
59 7% 33%  
60 8% 26%  
61 5% 18%  
62 4% 13%  
63 3% 9%  
64 2% 6%  
65 1.4% 4%  
66 1.0% 3%  
67 0.7% 2%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 0.6% 99.5%  
41 0.9% 98.9%  
42 1.1% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 5% 92%  
46 8% 87% Last Result
47 12% 79%  
48 10% 67%  
49 9% 57% Median
50 8% 48%  
51 6% 40%  
52 7% 35%  
53 7% 28%  
54 7% 21%  
55 5% 14%  
56 4% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 1.1% 3%  
59 0.5% 2%  
60 0.3% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 509 100% 500–518 497–521 495–523 490–527
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 448 100% 439–458 436–461 433–464 428–468
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 445 100% 435–454 431–458 430–459 425–464
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 407 100% 397–418 394–420 392–423 387–428
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 388 100% 378–398 375–401 373–404 368–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 100% 374–395 371–398 369–400 364–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 347 17% 336–357 333–360 331–362 326–367
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0% 314–334 312–338 308–340 303–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 306 0% 295–316 292–319 290–321 285–326
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 302 0% 291–312 289–315 286–317 281–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 246 0% 235–255 232–258 230–260 225–264
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 181 0% 172–190 170–193 167–195 163–199
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 177 0% 169–187 166–189 164–191 160–196

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 99.9%  
487 0.1% 99.9%  
488 0.1% 99.8%  
489 0.2% 99.7%  
490 0.2% 99.5%  
491 0.2% 99.3%  
492 0.4% 99.1%  
493 0.5% 98.8%  
494 0.6% 98%  
495 1.1% 98%  
496 0.9% 97%  
497 2% 96%  
498 2% 94%  
499 2% 92%  
500 3% 90%  
501 3% 87%  
502 2% 84%  
503 5% 82%  
504 4% 77%  
505 5% 74%  
506 8% 69%  
507 3% 61%  
508 7% 58%  
509 5% 51% Median
510 4% 46%  
511 5% 42%  
512 4% 36%  
513 6% 32%  
514 4% 26%  
515 4% 22%  
516 4% 18%  
517 3% 14%  
518 2% 11%  
519 2% 9%  
520 2% 7%  
521 1.3% 5%  
522 1.5% 4%  
523 0.6% 3%  
524 0.7% 2%  
525 0.5% 1.4%  
526 0.2% 1.0%  
527 0.3% 0.7%  
528 0.1% 0.4%  
529 0.1% 0.3%  
530 0.1% 0.2%  
531 0% 0.1%  
532 0% 0.1%  
533 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 99.9%  
425 0% 99.9%  
426 0.1% 99.8%  
427 0.1% 99.7%  
428 0.2% 99.6%  
429 0.2% 99.4%  
430 0.3% 99.2%  
431 0.4% 98.9%  
432 0.4% 98.5%  
433 0.8% 98%  
434 0.7% 97%  
435 1.1% 97%  
436 1.3% 95%  
437 2% 94%  
438 2% 92%  
439 2% 90%  
440 3% 88%  
441 3% 85%  
442 4% 82%  
443 4% 79%  
444 4% 75%  
445 4% 70%  
446 5% 66%  
447 6% 61%  
448 6% 55% Median
449 4% 49%  
450 6% 45%  
451 4% 40%  
452 5% 35%  
453 3% 30%  
454 5% 27%  
455 3% 22%  
456 3% 19%  
457 3% 15%  
458 2% 12%  
459 2% 10%  
460 2% 8%  
461 2% 6%  
462 1.1% 5%  
463 0.9% 3%  
464 0.7% 3%  
465 0.4% 2%  
466 0.5% 1.5%  
467 0.3% 1.0%  
468 0.2% 0.7%  
469 0.2% 0.5%  
470 0.1% 0.3%  
471 0.1% 0.2%  
472 0.1% 0.2%  
473 0% 0.1%  
474 0% 0.1%  
475 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
420 0% 100%  
421 0.1% 99.9%  
422 0.1% 99.8%  
423 0% 99.7%  
424 0% 99.7%  
425 0.3% 99.6%  
426 0.5% 99.4%  
427 0.3% 98.9%  
428 0.1% 98.6%  
429 0.3% 98.6%  
430 2% 98%  
431 2% 97%  
432 0.6% 95%  
433 0.4% 94%  
434 3% 94%  
435 4% 91%  
436 3% 87%  
437 0.7% 84%  
438 1.3% 84%  
439 7% 82%  
440 9% 75%  
441 2% 66%  
442 0.6% 64%  
443 4% 63%  
444 9% 59% Median
445 7% 51%  
446 2% 43%  
447 2% 41%  
448 6% 39%  
449 7% 34%  
450 3% 26%  
451 1.0% 23%  
452 4% 22%  
453 6% 18%  
454 3% 12%  
455 0.8% 9%  
456 0.4% 8%  
457 1.2% 8%  
458 3% 7%  
459 1.4% 4%  
460 0.2% 2%  
461 0.3% 2%  
462 0.6% 2%  
463 0.5% 1.2%  
464 0.2% 0.6%  
465 0% 0.4%  
466 0.1% 0.4%  
467 0.1% 0.3%  
468 0.1% 0.2%  
469 0% 0.1%  
470 0% 0.1%  
471 0% 0.1%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.2% 99.6%  
388 0.2% 99.4%  
389 0.4% 99.2%  
390 0.5% 98.8%  
391 0.8% 98%  
392 1.0% 98%  
393 0.9% 97%  
394 2% 96%  
395 1.4% 94%  
396 2% 92%  
397 2% 90%  
398 3% 89%  
399 2% 85%  
400 3% 84%  
401 5% 81%  
402 4% 76%  
403 6% 72%  
404 3% 66%  
405 4% 63%  
406 5% 58% Median
407 5% 54%  
408 6% 49%  
409 5% 43%  
410 4% 37%  
411 4% 33%  
412 3% 29%  
413 4% 26%  
414 2% 22%  
415 4% 20%  
416 2% 16%  
417 3% 13%  
418 2% 10%  
419 2% 8%  
420 2% 6% Last Result
421 1.0% 4%  
422 0.9% 3%  
423 0.6% 3%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.4% 1.4%  
426 0.3% 1.0%  
427 0.2% 0.7%  
428 0.2% 0.5%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0.1% 0.2%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.7%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.3% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.2%  
370 0.4% 99.0%  
371 0.6% 98.6%  
372 0.4% 98%  
373 0.7% 98%  
374 1.0% 97%  
375 1.4% 96%  
376 1.3% 94%  
377 2% 93%  
378 3% 91%  
379 2% 88%  
380 3% 86%  
381 3% 84%  
382 4% 80%  
383 4% 76%  
384 5% 72%  
385 4% 68%  
386 4% 63%  
387 6% 59%  
388 5% 53% Median
389 5% 48%  
390 5% 43%  
391 5% 38%  
392 5% 33%  
393 3% 28%  
394 4% 25%  
395 4% 22%  
396 3% 18%  
397 3% 15%  
398 2% 12%  
399 2% 10%  
400 1.3% 8%  
401 1.4% 6%  
402 1.3% 5%  
403 0.9% 4%  
404 0.6% 3%  
405 0.6% 2%  
406 0.3% 1.5%  
407 0.3% 1.1%  
408 0.4% 0.9%  
409 0.1% 0.5%  
410 0.1% 0.4%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0% 0.1%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.2% 99.6%  
365 0.3% 99.4%  
366 0.3% 99.1%  
367 0.7% 98.8%  
368 0.5% 98%  
369 0.7% 98%  
370 0.9% 97%  
371 1.3% 96%  
372 2% 95%  
373 1.3% 93%  
374 3% 92%  
375 2% 89%  
376 3% 87%  
377 4% 84%  
378 3% 80%  
379 4% 76%  
380 3% 72%  
381 5% 69%  
382 3% 64%  
383 7% 61%  
384 5% 54% Median
385 4% 49%  
386 4% 44%  
387 4% 40%  
388 6% 36%  
389 4% 31%  
390 4% 26%  
391 3% 22%  
392 4% 19%  
393 2% 15%  
394 2% 13%  
395 2% 10%  
396 2% 9%  
397 2% 7%  
398 0.9% 5%  
399 1.3% 4% Last Result
400 0.8% 3%  
401 0.5% 2%  
402 0.5% 2%  
403 0.4% 1.2%  
404 0.2% 0.9%  
405 0.2% 0.7%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 99.9%  
322 0% 99.9%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0.1% 99.8%  
325 0.1% 99.7%  
326 0.1% 99.6%  
327 0.3% 99.5%  
328 0.3% 99.2%  
329 0.4% 98.9%  
330 0.5% 98.6%  
331 0.8% 98%  
332 1.1% 97%  
333 1.2% 96%  
334 0.9% 95%  
335 2% 94%  
336 3% 93%  
337 3% 90%  
338 2% 87%  
339 3% 84%  
340 4% 81% Last Result
341 5% 77%  
342 4% 72%  
343 3% 68%  
344 3% 65%  
345 5% 62%  
346 5% 56% Median
347 6% 51%  
348 4% 46%  
349 4% 41%  
350 4% 38%  
351 4% 33%  
352 4% 29%  
353 4% 25%  
354 3% 21%  
355 3% 17% Majority
356 3% 14%  
357 2% 11%  
358 2% 9%  
359 0.9% 7%  
360 1.1% 6%  
361 1.1% 5%  
362 1.2% 4%  
363 0.6% 2%  
364 0.4% 2%  
365 0.3% 1.4%  
366 0.4% 1.2%  
367 0.2% 0.7%  
368 0.2% 0.5%  
369 0.1% 0.3%  
370 0.1% 0.3%  
371 0.1% 0.2%  
372 0.1% 0.1%  
373 0% 0.1%  
374 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
298 0% 100%  
299 0% 99.9%  
300 0% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.8%  
303 0.2% 99.7%  
304 0.2% 99.5%  
305 0.3% 99.3%  
306 0.3% 99.0%  
307 0.6% 98.7%  
308 0.7% 98%  
309 0.9% 97%  
310 0.6% 97%  
311 0.9% 96%  
312 2% 95%  
313 2% 93%  
314 3% 90%  
315 2% 88%  
316 2% 86%  
317 5% 84%  
318 4% 79%  
319 4% 75%  
320 3% 70%  
321 3% 68%  
322 6% 65%  
323 7% 58% Median
324 5% 52%  
325 4% 47%  
326 5% 43% Last Result
327 6% 39%  
328 3% 33%  
329 6% 30%  
330 3% 24%  
331 2% 21%  
332 2% 18%  
333 4% 16%  
334 2% 12%  
335 1.4% 10%  
336 2% 8%  
337 1.3% 7%  
338 2% 5%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.7% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.5% 2%  
343 0.4% 1.1%  
344 0.3% 0.8%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.9%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.1% 99.7%  
285 0.2% 99.6%  
286 0.3% 99.4%  
287 0.4% 99.1%  
288 0.5% 98.8%  
289 0.4% 98%  
290 0.7% 98%  
291 1.0% 97%  
292 1.3% 96%  
293 1.1% 95%  
294 2% 94%  
295 2% 92%  
296 2% 90%  
297 4% 87%  
298 3% 84%  
299 4% 81%  
300 3% 77% Last Result
301 4% 73%  
302 4% 69%  
303 5% 65%  
304 5% 59%  
305 4% 54%  
306 5% 50% Median
307 5% 46%  
308 4% 41%  
309 5% 36%  
310 4% 31%  
311 4% 27%  
312 4% 23%  
313 3% 19%  
314 4% 16%  
315 2% 12%  
316 2% 11%  
317 2% 9%  
318 2% 7%  
319 2% 6%  
320 0.9% 4%  
321 0.7% 3%  
322 0.6% 2%  
323 0.5% 2%  
324 0.4% 1.2%  
325 0.3% 0.8%  
326 0.2% 0.6%  
327 0.1% 0.4%  
328 0.1% 0.3%  
329 0.1% 0.2%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0.1%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.8%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.2% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.5%  
283 0.3% 99.3%  
284 0.4% 99.0%  
285 0.5% 98.6%  
286 0.6% 98%  
287 0.9% 97%  
288 1.0% 97%  
289 2% 96% Last Result
290 2% 94%  
291 2% 92%  
292 3% 90%  
293 2% 87%  
294 4% 84%  
295 2% 80%  
296 4% 78%  
297 3% 74%  
298 4% 71%  
299 4% 67%  
300 5% 63%  
301 6% 57%  
302 5% 51%  
303 5% 46% Median
304 4% 42%  
305 3% 37%  
306 6% 34%  
307 4% 28%  
308 5% 24%  
309 3% 19%  
310 2% 16%  
311 3% 15%  
312 2% 11%  
313 2% 10%  
314 1.4% 8%  
315 2% 6%  
316 0.9% 4%  
317 1.0% 3%  
318 0.8% 2%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.4% 1.2%  
321 0.2% 0.8%  
322 0.2% 0.6%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 99.9%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.2% 99.7%  
226 0.3% 99.4%  
227 0.2% 99.2%  
228 0.2% 99.0%  
229 0.5% 98.7%  
230 0.9% 98%  
231 1.4% 97%  
232 1.3% 96%  
233 0.6% 95%  
234 1.5% 94%  
235 3% 93%  
236 3% 89%  
237 4% 87%  
238 2% 83%  
239 2% 81%  
240 5% 79%  
241 6% 73%  
242 7% 67%  
243 3% 60%  
244 3% 57%  
245 4% 54%  
246 7% 51% Median
247 8% 44%  
248 5% 36%  
249 3% 31%  
250 2% 28%  
251 5% 27%  
252 5% 22%  
253 4% 17%  
254 2% 13%  
255 1.1% 11%  
256 2% 9%  
257 2% 8%  
258 2% 6%  
259 1.0% 4%  
260 0.5% 3%  
261 0.3% 2%  
262 0.6% 2%  
263 0.5% 1.3%  
264 0.4% 0.8%  
265 0.1% 0.5%  
266 0% 0.4%  
267 0.1% 0.3%  
268 0.1% 0.2%  
269 0.1% 0.1%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
159 0% 100%  
160 0.1% 99.9%  
161 0.1% 99.9%  
162 0.1% 99.8%  
163 0.2% 99.7%  
164 0.3% 99.5%  
165 0.3% 99.2%  
166 0.7% 98.9%  
167 0.8% 98%  
168 0.6% 97%  
169 1.4% 97%  
170 2% 95%  
171 1.4% 93%  
172 2% 92%  
173 4% 90%  
174 4% 86%  
175 3% 82%  
176 5% 79%  
177 5% 74%  
178 5% 69%  
179 6% 64%  
180 6% 59%  
181 5% 52% Median
182 5% 47%  
183 6% 42%  
184 4% 36%  
185 6% 32%  
186 4% 26%  
187 3% 22%  
188 4% 19%  
189 3% 15%  
190 2% 12%  
191 2% 9%  
192 2% 7%  
193 1.2% 5%  
194 0.7% 4%  
195 0.9% 3%  
196 0.8% 2%  
197 0.2% 1.3%  
198 0.4% 1.1%  
199 0.3% 0.7%  
200 0.2% 0.5%  
201 0.1% 0.3%  
202 0.1% 0.2%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0.1%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.2% 99.7%  
160 0.3% 99.6%  
161 0.2% 99.3%  
162 0.5% 99.1%  
163 0.6% 98.6%  
164 1.0% 98%  
165 1.1% 97%  
166 1.4% 96%  
167 2% 95%  
168 2% 93%  
169 3% 90%  
170 4% 87%  
171 3% 84%  
172 4% 80%  
173 5% 76%  
174 5% 71%  
175 5% 66%  
176 6% 61%  
177 6% 54%  
178 6% 49% Median
179 5% 43%  
180 5% 38%  
181 5% 33%  
182 5% 28%  
183 4% 23%  
184 4% 19%  
185 3% 15%  
186 2% 12%  
187 3% 10%  
188 2% 7%  
189 1.1% 6%  
190 1.5% 4%  
191 0.8% 3%  
192 0.7% 2%  
193 0.3% 2%  
194 0.5% 1.3%  
195 0.3% 0.8%  
196 0.2% 0.5%  
197 0.1% 0.4%  
198 0.1% 0.2%  
199 0.1% 0.2%  
200 0% 0.1%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations