Opinion Poll by Forsa, 21–23 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 27.8–30.8% 27.4–31.2% 27.0–31.6% 26.3–32.4%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.4–19.7% 16.1–20.0% 15.5–20.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.5–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.7–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.8–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.2–11.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.0–7.6% 5.7–7.9% 5.6–8.1% 5.2–8.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.9% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 223 211–235 208–239 205–242 201–250
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 137 128–147 125–150 123–153 118–159
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 105–124 103–127 101–129 97–134
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 62–76 60–79 58–81 55–85
Die Linke 69 69 62–76 60–79 58–81 55–85
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 45–58 44–60 42–62 40–66
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 46 40–52 38–54 0–55 0–59

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.9%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.1% 99.7%  
200 0.1% 99.6% Last Result
201 0.2% 99.5%  
202 0.2% 99.4%  
203 0.3% 99.1%  
204 0.8% 98.9%  
205 0.6% 98%  
206 1.1% 97%  
207 1.1% 96%  
208 1.3% 95%  
209 1.3% 94%  
210 2% 93%  
211 2% 91%  
212 2% 89%  
213 2% 87%  
214 3% 85%  
215 2% 82%  
216 3% 80%  
217 2% 77%  
218 3% 75%  
219 5% 71%  
220 5% 66%  
221 4% 62%  
222 6% 57%  
223 7% 52% Median
224 4% 45%  
225 3% 41%  
226 6% 38%  
227 4% 32%  
228 4% 28%  
229 4% 24%  
230 2% 21%  
231 2% 19%  
232 1.4% 17%  
233 2% 16%  
234 2% 14%  
235 2% 11%  
236 2% 10%  
237 1.5% 8%  
238 1.0% 7%  
239 1.1% 6%  
240 0.8% 4%  
241 0.7% 4%  
242 0.5% 3%  
243 0.5% 2%  
244 0.3% 2%  
245 0.2% 2%  
246 0.2% 1.4%  
247 0.3% 1.2%  
248 0.1% 0.9%  
249 0.1% 0.8%  
250 0.2% 0.7%  
251 0.1% 0.5%  
252 0.1% 0.3%  
253 0% 0.2%  
254 0% 0.2%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0.1%  
259 0% 0.1%  
260 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.2% 99.5%  
120 0.4% 99.3%  
121 0.5% 98.8%  
122 0.7% 98%  
123 0.9% 98%  
124 1.0% 97%  
125 1.2% 96%  
126 2% 95%  
127 2% 93%  
128 2% 90%  
129 3% 88%  
130 3% 85%  
131 4% 82%  
132 3% 77%  
133 4% 74%  
134 5% 70%  
135 5% 65%  
136 5% 60%  
137 7% 55% Median
138 5% 48%  
139 7% 43%  
140 5% 37%  
141 4% 31%  
142 3% 27%  
143 3% 24%  
144 3% 21%  
145 3% 17%  
146 2% 14%  
147 2% 12%  
148 2% 10%  
149 2% 8%  
150 2% 6%  
151 1.0% 5%  
152 0.9% 4%  
153 0.7% 3%  
154 0.5% 2%  
155 0.4% 2%  
156 0.3% 1.3%  
157 0.3% 1.1%  
158 0.2% 0.8%  
159 0.2% 0.6%  
160 0.2% 0.4%  
161 0.1% 0.2%  
162 0.1% 0.2%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0.1%  
166 0% 0.1%  
167 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.6%  
98 0.3% 99.4%  
99 0.5% 99.1%  
100 0.8% 98.6%  
101 0.7% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 1.5% 94%  
105 3% 93%  
106 3% 90%  
107 3% 87%  
108 5% 84%  
109 4% 79%  
110 4% 76%  
111 5% 72%  
112 5% 66%  
113 5% 61%  
114 7% 56% Median
115 6% 49%  
116 4% 43%  
117 6% 39%  
118 5% 33%  
119 4% 28%  
120 4% 25%  
121 4% 20%  
122 3% 16%  
123 3% 13%  
124 2% 10%  
125 2% 8%  
126 2% 7%  
127 1.2% 5%  
128 1.1% 4%  
129 0.7% 3%  
130 0.6% 2%  
131 0.4% 2%  
132 0.3% 1.1%  
133 0.2% 0.8%  
134 0.1% 0.6%  
135 0.1% 0.4%  
136 0.1% 0.3%  
137 0.1% 0.2%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0.1%  
140 0% 0.1%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 0.7% 99.0%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95%  
61 2% 93%  
62 3% 91%  
63 4% 87%  
64 5% 83%  
65 5% 78%  
66 7% 73%  
67 8% 66%  
68 7% 58%  
69 5% 52% Median
70 7% 46%  
71 8% 39%  
72 6% 31%  
73 5% 26%  
74 5% 21%  
75 4% 16%  
76 3% 12%  
77 2% 9%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.0% 4%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.4% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.3%  
57 0.7% 98.9%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 3% 94%  
62 4% 91%  
63 4% 87%  
64 6% 83%  
65 5% 77%  
66 6% 72%  
67 7% 66%  
68 6% 59%  
69 7% 53% Last Result, Median
70 7% 46%  
71 7% 38%  
72 6% 32%  
73 5% 26%  
74 5% 21%  
75 3% 16%  
76 4% 13%  
77 2% 9%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 0.9% 4%  
81 0.9% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.2% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.6%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.6%  
41 0.5% 99.2%  
42 1.4% 98.7%  
43 2% 97%  
44 2% 96%  
45 4% 93%  
46 4% 89% Last Result
47 6% 85%  
48 7% 79%  
49 7% 72%  
50 7% 65%  
51 7% 58%  
52 7% 51% Median
53 5% 43%  
54 8% 38%  
55 7% 30%  
56 6% 23%  
57 6% 17%  
58 3% 12%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6%  
61 1.3% 4%  
62 0.9% 3%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.4% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0% 96%  
38 0.8% 96%  
39 3% 95%  
40 4% 92%  
41 4% 88%  
42 6% 84%  
43 7% 78%  
44 8% 71%  
45 10% 62%  
46 10% 53% Median
47 8% 43%  
48 6% 34%  
49 7% 29%  
50 4% 22%  
51 5% 18%  
52 4% 12%  
53 3% 9%  
54 2% 6%  
55 1.3% 4%  
56 0.8% 2%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.0%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 526 100% 515–538 511–545 509–560 504–571
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 456 100% 444–468 441–473 436–474 428–480
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 434 100% 421–446 417–450 412–453 404–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 412 100% 399–426 396–431 393–440 387–451
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 389 100% 376–403 373–408 370–414 364–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 389 99.6% 375–401 370–404 365–407 355–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 344 14% 331–357 327–362 324–368 319–381
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0.4% 308–334 305–339 302–344 296–354
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 319 0% 306–332 300–336 293–339 282–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 297 0% 284–309 277–313 269–316 256–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 251 0% 240–265 237–268 234–272 228–280
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 183 0% 173–195 170–198 167–201 162–208
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 160 0% 149–170 142–174 122–176 113–181

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.8%  
502 0.1% 99.8%  
503 0.1% 99.7%  
504 0.2% 99.5%  
505 0.2% 99.3%  
506 0.4% 99.1%  
507 0.4% 98.7%  
508 0.5% 98%  
509 0.7% 98%  
510 1.1% 97%  
511 1.1% 96%  
512 0.9% 95%  
513 2% 94%  
514 2% 92%  
515 2% 91%  
516 4% 89%  
517 2% 85%  
518 3% 83%  
519 3% 80%  
520 3% 76%  
521 5% 74%  
522 3% 69%  
523 4% 66%  
524 6% 61%  
525 5% 56%  
526 4% 51% Median
527 5% 47%  
528 6% 42%  
529 3% 36%  
530 4% 33%  
531 4% 28%  
532 3% 24%  
533 2% 22%  
534 2% 19%  
535 2% 17%  
536 2% 15%  
537 2% 12%  
538 2% 11%  
539 1.1% 9%  
540 0.9% 8%  
541 0.6% 7%  
542 0.5% 6%  
543 0.5% 6%  
544 0.3% 5%  
545 0.2% 5%  
546 0.2% 5%  
547 0.1% 5%  
548 0.1% 5%  
549 0.1% 4%  
550 0.1% 4%  
551 0.2% 4%  
552 0.1% 4%  
553 0.1% 4%  
554 0.2% 4%  
555 0.2% 4%  
556 0.2% 4%  
557 0.3% 3%  
558 0.2% 3%  
559 0.1% 3%  
560 0.3% 3%  
561 0.2% 2%  
562 0.3% 2%  
563 0.2% 2%  
564 0.2% 2%  
565 0.2% 1.5%  
566 0.2% 1.3%  
567 0.2% 1.1%  
568 0.1% 1.0%  
569 0.2% 0.8%  
570 0.2% 0.7%  
571 0.1% 0.5%  
572 0.1% 0.4%  
573 0.1% 0.3%  
574 0% 0.3%  
575 0.1% 0.2%  
576 0% 0.2%  
577 0% 0.1%  
578 0% 0.1%  
579 0% 0.1%  
580 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.9%  
421 0% 99.9%  
422 0% 99.9%  
423 0% 99.9%  
424 0.1% 99.8%  
425 0% 99.8%  
426 0% 99.7%  
427 0.1% 99.7%  
428 0.2% 99.6%  
429 0.2% 99.4%  
430 0.2% 99.2%  
431 0.1% 99.0%  
432 0.1% 98.8%  
433 0.1% 98.7%  
434 0.2% 98.7%  
435 0.4% 98%  
436 0.8% 98%  
437 0.7% 97%  
438 0.7% 97%  
439 0.3% 96%  
440 0.6% 96%  
441 1.1% 95%  
442 2% 94%  
443 2% 92%  
444 2% 90%  
445 0.7% 88%  
446 0.6% 87%  
447 2% 87%  
448 5% 85%  
449 5% 80%  
450 4% 75%  
451 2% 71%  
452 1.2% 70%  
453 2% 69%  
454 5% 66%  
455 5% 62%  
456 7% 57%  
457 3% 49%  
458 2% 46% Median
459 2% 44%  
460 4% 42%  
461 9% 38%  
462 6% 29%  
463 2% 24%  
464 1.3% 21%  
465 2% 20%  
466 2% 19%  
467 4% 16%  
468 3% 12%  
469 2% 9%  
470 0.9% 7%  
471 0.4% 7%  
472 0.8% 6%  
473 1.4% 5%  
474 1.5% 4%  
475 0.8% 2%  
476 0.2% 2%  
477 0.1% 1.4%  
478 0.2% 1.3%  
479 0.4% 1.1%  
480 0.3% 0.7%  
481 0.1% 0.4%  
482 0.1% 0.2%  
483 0% 0.2%  
484 0% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0.1%  
488 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0% 99.9%  
397 0% 99.9%  
398 0% 99.9%  
399 0% 99.8%  
400 0.1% 99.8%  
401 0% 99.7%  
402 0.1% 99.7%  
403 0.1% 99.6%  
404 0% 99.5%  
405 0.1% 99.5%  
406 0.2% 99.4%  
407 0.3% 99.1%  
408 0.2% 98.8%  
409 0.2% 98.6%  
410 0.1% 98%  
411 0.7% 98%  
412 0.2% 98%  
413 0.3% 97%  
414 0.9% 97%  
415 0.3% 96%  
416 0.7% 96%  
417 1.3% 95%  
418 0.7% 94%  
419 2% 93%  
420 1.1% 91%  
421 0.8% 90%  
422 2% 89%  
423 1.2% 87%  
424 1.1% 86%  
425 4% 85%  
426 2% 81%  
427 3% 80%  
428 6% 77%  
429 2% 71%  
430 3% 69%  
431 6% 65%  
432 3% 59%  
433 3% 56%  
434 6% 54%  
435 3% 48% Median
436 5% 45%  
437 3% 40%  
438 3% 36%  
439 6% 33%  
440 3% 27%  
441 2% 24%  
442 4% 22%  
443 3% 17%  
444 1.2% 14%  
445 3% 13%  
446 1.2% 10%  
447 1.1% 9%  
448 2% 8%  
449 0.6% 6%  
450 1.1% 5%  
451 1.1% 4%  
452 0.6% 3%  
453 0.9% 3%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.3% 1.3%  
456 0.3% 1.0%  
457 0.2% 0.7%  
458 0.1% 0.5%  
459 0.1% 0.4%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0% 0.2%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.7%  
387 0.3% 99.6%  
388 0.2% 99.3%  
389 0.3% 99.0%  
390 0.4% 98.7%  
391 0.3% 98%  
392 0.3% 98%  
393 0.5% 98%  
394 0.6% 97%  
395 0.7% 97%  
396 1.1% 96%  
397 2% 95%  
398 2% 93%  
399 3% 92%  
400 2% 89%  
401 2% 87%  
402 4% 85%  
403 2% 81%  
404 3% 79%  
405 2% 75%  
406 3% 73%  
407 4% 70%  
408 3% 66%  
409 4% 63%  
410 3% 59%  
411 5% 56%  
412 4% 51% Median
413 4% 46%  
414 3% 43%  
415 5% 39%  
416 4% 34%  
417 4% 30%  
418 3% 26%  
419 3% 23%  
420 3% 20%  
421 2% 17%  
422 2% 16%  
423 1.3% 14%  
424 1.4% 13%  
425 0.8% 11%  
426 1.3% 11%  
427 1.1% 9%  
428 1.2% 8%  
429 1.0% 7%  
430 0.7% 6%  
431 0.6% 5%  
432 0.3% 5%  
433 0.2% 4%  
434 0.3% 4%  
435 0.3% 4%  
436 0.4% 4%  
437 0.2% 3%  
438 0.2% 3%  
439 0.1% 3%  
440 0.4% 3%  
441 0.5% 2%  
442 0.2% 2%  
443 0.2% 2%  
444 0.1% 1.4%  
445 0.1% 1.3%  
446 0% 1.2%  
447 0.1% 1.2%  
448 0.2% 1.1%  
449 0.3% 0.9%  
450 0.1% 0.6%  
451 0.1% 0.5%  
452 0% 0.4%  
453 0.1% 0.4%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.2%  
456 0% 0.1%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 99.9%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.7%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.2% 99.5%  
366 0.2% 99.3%  
367 0.4% 99.1%  
368 0.5% 98.7%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 0.9% 97%  
372 0.8% 96%  
373 2% 95%  
374 1.5% 94%  
375 1.4% 92%  
376 1.4% 91%  
377 2% 89%  
378 2% 88%  
379 3% 86%  
380 3% 83%  
381 3% 81%  
382 2% 78%  
383 3% 75%  
384 3% 73%  
385 5% 69%  
386 4% 64%  
387 5% 60%  
388 3% 55%  
389 4% 52% Median
390 4% 48%  
391 5% 43%  
392 4% 38%  
393 4% 34%  
394 3% 30%  
395 4% 27%  
396 2% 24%  
397 3% 21%  
398 3% 18%  
399 2% 15% Last Result
400 2% 14%  
401 1.0% 12%  
402 1.3% 11%  
403 1.0% 10%  
404 0.9% 9%  
405 0.9% 8%  
406 0.8% 7%  
407 0.9% 6%  
408 0.7% 6%  
409 0.5% 5%  
410 0.4% 4%  
411 0.9% 4%  
412 0.2% 3%  
413 0.2% 3%  
414 0.4% 3%  
415 0.1% 2%  
416 0.2% 2%  
417 0.2% 2%  
418 0.2% 2%  
419 0.1% 2%  
420 0.3% 2%  
421 0.2% 1.3%  
422 0.1% 1.1%  
423 0.1% 1.1%  
424 0.2% 0.9%  
425 0.1% 0.7%  
426 0.1% 0.6%  
427 0.1% 0.5%  
428 0% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0% 0.3%  
431 0% 0.2%  
432 0.1% 0.2%  
433 0% 0.2%  
434 0% 0.1%  
435 0% 0.1%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 99.9%  
348 0% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.9%  
350 0.1% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.8%  
352 0.1% 99.7%  
353 0.1% 99.6%  
354 0% 99.6%  
355 0.1% 99.6% Majority
356 0.1% 99.5%  
357 0% 99.4%  
358 0.1% 99.4%  
359 0.1% 99.3%  
360 0.4% 99.2%  
361 0.2% 98.8%  
362 0.4% 98.6%  
363 0.3% 98%  
364 0.3% 98%  
365 0.3% 98%  
366 0.3% 97%  
367 0.4% 97%  
368 0.4% 97%  
369 0.8% 96%  
370 0.7% 96%  
371 0.8% 95%  
372 1.0% 94%  
373 1.0% 93%  
374 2% 92%  
375 1.2% 90%  
376 2% 89%  
377 2% 88%  
378 2% 85%  
379 2% 83%  
380 2% 81%  
381 3% 79%  
382 3% 76%  
383 4% 73%  
384 4% 70%  
385 2% 65%  
386 4% 63%  
387 5% 59%  
388 3% 54%  
389 5% 51%  
390 4% 46% Median
391 5% 42%  
392 4% 37%  
393 4% 34%  
394 3% 30%  
395 4% 27%  
396 3% 24%  
397 3% 21%  
398 3% 18%  
399 2% 14%  
400 2% 13%  
401 2% 10%  
402 1.4% 9%  
403 1.2% 7%  
404 1.1% 6%  
405 1.0% 5%  
406 0.9% 4%  
407 0.6% 3%  
408 0.6% 2%  
409 0.3% 2%  
410 0.3% 1.4%  
411 0.3% 1.1%  
412 0.2% 0.7%  
413 0.2% 0.6%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0.1% 0.2%  
417 0.1% 0.2%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
312 0% 100%  
313 0% 99.9%  
314 0% 99.9%  
315 0% 99.9%  
316 0.1% 99.8%  
317 0.2% 99.8%  
318 0.1% 99.6%  
319 0.1% 99.5%  
320 0.4% 99.4%  
321 0.2% 99.0%  
322 0.3% 98.8%  
323 0.7% 98.5%  
324 0.4% 98%  
325 0.8% 97%  
326 0.9% 97%  
327 1.3% 96%  
328 1.2% 94%  
329 1.3% 93%  
330 1.1% 92%  
331 3% 91%  
332 1.5% 88%  
333 2% 87%  
334 3% 85%  
335 2% 81%  
336 2% 79%  
337 5% 77%  
338 3% 73%  
339 4% 70%  
340 4% 66% Last Result
341 5% 62%  
342 4% 57%  
343 2% 52%  
344 6% 50% Median
345 5% 44%  
346 2% 40%  
347 5% 38%  
348 4% 33%  
349 4% 29%  
350 2% 25%  
351 2% 23%  
352 3% 20%  
353 2% 17%  
354 2% 16%  
355 2% 14% Majority
356 1.3% 12%  
357 1.3% 10%  
358 1.0% 9%  
359 0.9% 8%  
360 1.1% 7%  
361 0.8% 6%  
362 0.7% 5%  
363 0.6% 5%  
364 0.4% 4%  
365 0.5% 4%  
366 0.3% 3%  
367 0.3% 3%  
368 0.2% 3%  
369 0.5% 2%  
370 0.2% 2%  
371 0.2% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.2% 1.4%  
374 0.1% 1.2%  
375 0.2% 1.0%  
376 0.1% 0.9%  
377 0.1% 0.8%  
378 0% 0.6%  
379 0% 0.6%  
380 0.1% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.5%  
382 0.2% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0.1% 0.2%  
385 0% 0.1%  
386 0% 0.1%  
387 0% 0.1%  
388 0% 0.1%  
389 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.4%  
298 0.3% 99.3%  
299 0.3% 98.9%  
300 0.3% 98.6%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.6% 98%  
303 0.9% 97%  
304 1.0% 96%  
305 1.1% 95%  
306 1.2% 94%  
307 1.4% 93%  
308 2% 91%  
309 2% 90%  
310 2% 87%  
311 3% 86%  
312 3% 82%  
313 3% 79%  
314 4% 76%  
315 3% 73%  
316 4% 70%  
317 4% 66%  
318 5% 63%  
319 4% 58%  
320 5% 54% Median
321 3% 49%  
322 5% 46%  
323 4% 41%  
324 2% 37%  
325 4% 35%  
326 4% 30%  
327 3% 27%  
328 3% 24%  
329 2% 21%  
330 2% 19%  
331 2% 17%  
332 2% 15%  
333 2% 12%  
334 1.2% 11%  
335 2% 10%  
336 1.0% 8%  
337 1.0% 7%  
338 0.8% 6%  
339 0.7% 5%  
340 0.8% 4%  
341 0.4% 4%  
342 0.4% 3%  
343 0.3% 3%  
344 0.3% 3%  
345 0.3% 2%  
346 0.3% 2%  
347 0.4% 2%  
348 0.2% 1.4%  
349 0.4% 1.2%  
350 0.1% 0.8%  
351 0.1% 0.7%  
352 0% 0.6%  
353 0.1% 0.6%  
354 0.1% 0.5%  
355 0% 0.4% Majority
356 0.1% 0.4%  
357 0.1% 0.4%  
358 0% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.2%  
360 0.1% 0.1%  
361 0% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0.1%  
364 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
273 0% 100%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0% 99.9%  
276 0% 99.9%  
277 0.1% 99.9%  
278 0.1% 99.8%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0.1% 99.7%  
281 0% 99.6%  
282 0.1% 99.6%  
283 0.1% 99.5%  
284 0.1% 99.4%  
285 0% 99.3%  
286 0.1% 99.3%  
287 0.3% 99.2%  
288 0.3% 98.9%  
289 0.1% 98.7%  
290 0.4% 98.6%  
291 0.4% 98%  
292 0.3% 98%  
293 0.3% 98%  
294 0.1% 97%  
295 0.3% 97%  
296 0.5% 97%  
297 0.4% 96%  
298 0.2% 96%  
299 0.3% 96%  
300 0.5% 95%  
301 0.6% 95%  
302 0.6% 94%  
303 0.5% 94%  
304 1.3% 93%  
305 2% 92%  
306 1.4% 90%  
307 1.2% 89%  
308 1.4% 87%  
309 3% 86%  
310 3% 83%  
311 1.3% 80%  
312 1.4% 79%  
313 4% 77%  
314 3% 73%  
315 3% 70%  
316 2% 68%  
317 4% 66%  
318 6% 62%  
319 6% 56%  
320 2% 50%  
321 4% 47% Median
322 6% 44%  
323 5% 37%  
324 2% 32%  
325 1.5% 30%  
326 2% 28% Last Result
327 4% 26%  
328 4% 22%  
329 1.5% 18%  
330 2% 16%  
331 3% 14%  
332 2% 11%  
333 1.4% 9%  
334 0.9% 7%  
335 1.1% 6%  
336 1.4% 5%  
337 0.7% 4%  
338 0.4% 3%  
339 0.5% 3%  
340 0.6% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.2%  
343 0.2% 1.0%  
344 0.2% 0.8%  
345 0.2% 0.6%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
247 0% 100%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.9%  
252 0% 99.9%  
253 0% 99.9%  
254 0.1% 99.8%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.2% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.1% 99.4%  
259 0.2% 99.3%  
260 0% 99.1%  
261 0.1% 99.0%  
262 0.1% 98.9%  
263 0.1% 98.8%  
264 0.2% 98.7%  
265 0.1% 98.5%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.4% 98%  
268 0.3% 98%  
269 0.2% 98%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.4% 97%  
272 0.2% 97%  
273 0.3% 96%  
274 0.3% 96%  
275 0.3% 96%  
276 0.4% 96%  
277 0.3% 95%  
278 0.5% 95%  
279 0.6% 94%  
280 0.6% 94%  
281 0.8% 93%  
282 0.8% 92%  
283 1.2% 91%  
284 1.3% 90%  
285 3% 89%  
286 1.4% 86%  
287 2% 85%  
288 2% 83%  
289 3% 80%  
290 3% 78%  
291 3% 74%  
292 2% 71%  
293 4% 69%  
294 5% 65%  
295 4% 60%  
296 5% 57%  
297 3% 52% Median
298 6% 49%  
299 3% 43%  
300 3% 39% Last Result
301 5% 36%  
302 3% 31%  
303 3% 28%  
304 2% 25%  
305 4% 23%  
306 2% 19%  
307 3% 17%  
308 2% 13%  
309 2% 12%  
310 2% 10%  
311 1.1% 8%  
312 1.3% 7%  
313 0.9% 5%  
314 1.0% 4%  
315 0.6% 3%  
316 0.9% 3%  
317 0.3% 2%  
318 0.4% 2%  
319 0.3% 1.2%  
320 0.2% 0.9%  
321 0.2% 0.7%  
322 0.1% 0.5%  
323 0.1% 0.4%  
324 0.1% 0.3%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.1% 99.7%  
228 0.1% 99.6%  
229 0.2% 99.5%  
230 0.3% 99.3%  
231 0.3% 99.0%  
232 0.6% 98.7%  
233 0.4% 98%  
234 0.8% 98%  
235 0.7% 97%  
236 0.9% 96%  
237 1.1% 95%  
238 1.5% 94%  
239 2% 93%  
240 2% 90%  
241 2% 89%  
242 3% 86%  
243 3% 84%  
244 3% 81%  
245 2% 78%  
246 4% 75%  
247 4% 72%  
248 4% 67%  
249 5% 64%  
250 3% 59%  
251 6% 56% Median
252 4% 50%  
253 4% 46%  
254 5% 43%  
255 4% 38%  
256 4% 34%  
257 3% 30%  
258 4% 28%  
259 3% 23%  
260 3% 21%  
261 2% 18%  
262 2% 15%  
263 2% 14%  
264 1.4% 11%  
265 1.5% 10%  
266 1.2% 9%  
267 1.4% 7%  
268 1.2% 6%  
269 0.7% 5%  
270 0.7% 4%  
271 0.8% 3%  
272 0.4% 3%  
273 0.4% 2%  
274 0.3% 2%  
275 0.2% 1.5%  
276 0.1% 1.2%  
277 0.2% 1.1%  
278 0.1% 0.9%  
279 0.2% 0.8%  
280 0.1% 0.6%  
281 0.1% 0.5%  
282 0.1% 0.4%  
283 0.1% 0.3%  
284 0.1% 0.2%  
285 0% 0.2%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0.1%  
291 0% 0.1%  
292 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
157 0% 100%  
158 0% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.9%  
160 0.1% 99.8%  
161 0.1% 99.8%  
162 0.2% 99.7%  
163 0.2% 99.4%  
164 0.3% 99.2%  
165 0.4% 98.9%  
166 0.6% 98%  
167 0.6% 98%  
168 0.9% 97%  
169 1.3% 96%  
170 1.3% 95%  
171 2% 94%  
172 2% 92%  
173 2% 90%  
174 3% 88%  
175 3% 85%  
176 3% 82%  
177 5% 79%  
178 4% 75%  
179 4% 71%  
180 3% 67%  
181 6% 64%  
182 6% 58%  
183 3% 53% Median
184 5% 49%  
185 4% 44%  
186 5% 40%  
187 4% 36%  
188 4% 31%  
189 4% 27%  
190 3% 23%  
191 3% 21%  
192 2% 18%  
193 3% 15%  
194 2% 12%  
195 2% 10%  
196 1.4% 8%  
197 1.2% 7%  
198 1.0% 6%  
199 1.2% 5%  
200 0.7% 4%  
201 0.7% 3%  
202 0.4% 2%  
203 0.3% 2%  
204 0.3% 1.5%  
205 0.3% 1.2%  
206 0.2% 0.9%  
207 0.2% 0.7%  
208 0.1% 0.6%  
209 0.1% 0.4%  
210 0.1% 0.3%  
211 0% 0.2%  
212 0% 0.2%  
213 0% 0.1%  
214 0% 0.1%  
215 0% 0.1%  
216 0% 0.1%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.9%  
110 0% 99.8%  
111 0.1% 99.8%  
112 0% 99.7%  
113 0.1% 99.6%  
114 0.2% 99.5%  
115 0.2% 99.3%  
116 0.1% 99.1%  
117 0.4% 99.1%  
118 0.2% 98.7%  
119 0.2% 98%  
120 0.4% 98%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.2% 98%  
123 0.1% 97%  
124 0.3% 97%  
125 0.1% 97%  
126 0.3% 97%  
127 0.1% 97%  
128 0.2% 96%  
129 0.1% 96%  
130 0.1% 96%  
131 0.1% 96%  
132 0.1% 96%  
133 0% 96%  
134 0.1% 96%  
135 0.1% 96%  
136 0% 96%  
137 0.1% 96%  
138 0.1% 96%  
139 0.1% 95%  
140 0.2% 95%  
141 0.2% 95%  
142 0.3% 95%  
143 0.3% 95%  
144 0.3% 94%  
145 0.5% 94%  
146 0.8% 94%  
147 1.2% 93%  
148 1.3% 92%  
149 2% 90%  
150 2% 88%  
151 2% 86%  
152 2% 84%  
153 2% 81%  
154 3% 79%  
155 3% 77%  
156 5% 74%  
157 6% 69%  
158 7% 63%  
159 6% 56%  
160 5% 50% Median
161 4% 45%  
162 4% 42%  
163 3% 38%  
164 4% 35%  
165 5% 31%  
166 4% 27%  
167 4% 23%  
168 4% 18%  
169 3% 14%  
170 2% 11%  
171 1.4% 9%  
172 1.2% 8%  
173 1.3% 7%  
174 1.1% 5%  
175 0.9% 4%  
176 1.2% 3%  
177 0.5% 2%  
178 0.5% 2%  
179 0.2% 1.0%  
180 0.2% 0.8%  
181 0.1% 0.6%  
182 0.1% 0.4%  
183 0.1% 0.3%  
184 0.1% 0.3%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations