Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 1–4 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 28.0–30.6% 27.6–30.9% 27.3–31.2% 26.7–31.9%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.9–19.1% 16.7–19.4% 16.4–19.7% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.8–16.4% 13.5–16.6% 13.1–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.2–11.9% 9.9–12.2% 9.7–12.4% 9.3–12.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 218 208–227 206–230 204–233 199–237
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 134 126–143 124–145 122–147 118–150
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–120 103–122 101–123 98–127
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 76–89 74–91 72–92 70–96
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 56 51–62 49–64 48–65 46–68
Die Linke 69 56 51–62 49–63 48–65 45–68
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 45–56 44–57 42–59 41–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
194 0% 100%  
195 0% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.9%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.1% 99.8%  
199 0.2% 99.6%  
200 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
201 0.3% 99.2%  
202 0.5% 98.8%  
203 0.7% 98%  
204 0.9% 98%  
205 1.0% 97%  
206 1.2% 96%  
207 2% 94%  
208 3% 92%  
209 2% 89%  
210 3% 87%  
211 4% 84%  
212 3% 80%  
213 4% 77%  
214 4% 73%  
215 6% 68%  
216 7% 63%  
217 4% 56%  
218 5% 52% Median
219 6% 47%  
220 5% 40%  
221 5% 36%  
222 5% 31%  
223 4% 26%  
224 4% 22%  
225 4% 18%  
226 2% 14%  
227 2% 12%  
228 2% 10%  
229 1.3% 7%  
230 2% 6%  
231 1.1% 4%  
232 0.6% 3%  
233 0.9% 3%  
234 0.6% 2%  
235 0.3% 1.2%  
236 0.3% 0.9%  
237 0.2% 0.6%  
238 0.1% 0.5%  
239 0.1% 0.3%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0.1% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.8%  
118 0.2% 99.7%  
119 0.2% 99.5%  
120 0.6% 99.2%  
121 0.6% 98.7%  
122 0.9% 98%  
123 1.2% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 3% 94%  
126 2% 92%  
127 3% 90%  
128 3% 87%  
129 4% 83%  
130 6% 79%  
131 5% 73%  
132 6% 68%  
133 5% 62%  
134 9% 57% Median
135 5% 48%  
136 6% 43%  
137 6% 37%  
138 4% 31%  
139 7% 27%  
140 3% 20%  
141 5% 17%  
142 2% 12%  
143 3% 10%  
144 2% 7%  
145 1.4% 5%  
146 1.0% 4%  
147 0.8% 3%  
148 0.7% 2%  
149 0.3% 1.2%  
150 0.4% 0.9%  
151 0.1% 0.5%  
152 0.2% 0.3%  
153 0.1% 0.2%  
154 0.1% 0.1%  
155 0% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.5%  
99 0.7% 99.2%  
100 0.8% 98%  
101 1.2% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 2% 95%  
104 3% 93%  
105 3% 90%  
106 3% 87%  
107 4% 84%  
108 6% 80%  
109 7% 74%  
110 9% 66%  
111 7% 57%  
112 7% 50% Median
113 4% 44%  
114 5% 39%  
115 7% 34%  
116 6% 27%  
117 4% 22%  
118 4% 18%  
119 3% 14%  
120 3% 10%  
121 2% 7%  
122 2% 5%  
123 0.9% 3%  
124 0.7% 2%  
125 0.4% 2%  
126 0.5% 1.3%  
127 0.3% 0.8%  
128 0.2% 0.5%  
129 0.1% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.3% 99.5%  
71 0.7% 99.2%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 1.5% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 3% 94%  
76 4% 91%  
77 5% 87%  
78 6% 82%  
79 6% 76%  
80 8% 69%  
81 8% 61%  
82 8% 54% Median
83 7% 46%  
84 7% 39%  
85 6% 32%  
86 7% 26%  
87 5% 19%  
88 4% 15%  
89 3% 11%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.2% 4%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.6% 2% Last Result
95 0.4% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.6%  
47 1.0% 99.0%  
48 1.4% 98%  
49 3% 97%  
50 3% 94%  
51 4% 90%  
52 8% 86%  
53 8% 79%  
54 9% 71%  
55 12% 62%  
56 9% 50% Median
57 8% 41%  
58 8% 34%  
59 6% 25%  
60 4% 19%  
61 4% 14%  
62 3% 10%  
63 2% 7%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.1% 3%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.6% 1.1%  
68 0.2% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.5% 99.5%  
47 1.0% 99.0%  
48 2% 98%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 94%  
51 5% 90%  
52 6% 85%  
53 8% 80%  
54 7% 72%  
55 8% 64%  
56 9% 57% Median
57 8% 47%  
58 8% 40%  
59 9% 31%  
60 6% 22%  
61 5% 16%  
62 5% 11%  
63 3% 7%  
64 1.4% 4%  
65 1.1% 3%  
66 0.6% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.9%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.8%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 1.5% 98.9%  
43 0.7% 97%  
44 2% 97%  
45 7% 95%  
46 6% 87% Last Result
47 2% 82%  
48 9% 79%  
49 16% 71%  
50 7% 55% Median
51 4% 48%  
52 13% 43%  
53 10% 30%  
54 3% 20%  
55 4% 17%  
56 6% 13%  
57 3% 7%  
58 0.8% 4%  
59 1.1% 3%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0.1% 0.5%  
63 0.2% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 515 100% 506–524 503–527 500–530 496–532
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 458 100% 449–469 446–471 444–474 439–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 436 100% 426–446 424–449 421–452 417–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 406 100% 396–417 394–420 391–422 386–427
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 402 100% 393–413 390–416 387–418 382–422
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 380 99.9% 370–390 368–394 365–396 360–401
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 350 31% 340–361 338–364 335–366 330–371
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 324 0% 314–335 311–337 309–340 304–345
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 303 0% 292–313 289–315 287–318 282–323
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 302 0% 292–312 289–315 287–318 282–322
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 247 0% 237–256 234–259 231–262 227–266
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 160–177 157–179 155–182 151–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 167 0% 160–177 157–180 155–182 151–186

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 99.9%  
493 0% 99.9%  
494 0.1% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.8%  
496 0.3% 99.6%  
497 0.3% 99.4%  
498 0.5% 99.1%  
499 0.4% 98.6%  
500 0.7% 98%  
501 0.6% 97%  
502 0.9% 97%  
503 1.2% 96%  
504 1.3% 95%  
505 2% 93%  
506 2% 92%  
507 3% 90%  
508 4% 87%  
509 6% 83%  
510 6% 76%  
511 8% 71%  
512 5% 63%  
513 4% 58%  
514 4% 54% Median
515 4% 51%  
516 4% 47%  
517 6% 42%  
518 4% 36%  
519 5% 32%  
520 5% 28%  
521 5% 23%  
522 4% 18%  
523 3% 14%  
524 3% 11%  
525 1.2% 7%  
526 1.1% 6%  
527 1.0% 5%  
528 0.9% 4%  
529 0.8% 3%  
530 1.0% 3%  
531 0.7% 2%  
532 0.4% 0.9%  
533 0.2% 0.5%  
534 0.1% 0.3%  
535 0.1% 0.2%  
536 0% 0.1%  
537 0% 0.1%  
538 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 99.9%  
435 0% 99.9%  
436 0.1% 99.9%  
437 0.1% 99.8%  
438 0.2% 99.7%  
439 0.1% 99.6%  
440 0.2% 99.4%  
441 0.4% 99.2%  
442 0.4% 98.8%  
443 0.6% 98%  
444 0.8% 98%  
445 0.8% 97%  
446 1.2% 96%  
447 2% 95%  
448 2% 93%  
449 3% 91%  
450 2% 88%  
451 3% 85%  
452 3% 83%  
453 5% 79%  
454 4% 75%  
455 6% 71%  
456 3% 65%  
457 6% 62%  
458 5% 55% Median
459 5% 50%  
460 4% 45%  
461 6% 41%  
462 5% 35%  
463 3% 30%  
464 4% 27%  
465 4% 23%  
466 2% 19%  
467 4% 17%  
468 2% 13%  
469 3% 11%  
470 2% 8%  
471 2% 6%  
472 1.1% 5%  
473 0.8% 4%  
474 0.8% 3%  
475 0.5% 2%  
476 0.4% 1.4%  
477 0.4% 1.0%  
478 0.2% 0.7%  
479 0.2% 0.5%  
480 0.1% 0.3%  
481 0% 0.2%  
482 0.1% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 99.9%  
413 0.1% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.8%  
415 0.1% 99.8%  
416 0.1% 99.7%  
417 0.2% 99.5%  
418 0.2% 99.3%  
419 0.4% 99.1%  
420 0.5% 98.7%  
421 0.7% 98%  
422 0.8% 97%  
423 1.0% 97%  
424 1.5% 96%  
425 2% 94%  
426 3% 93%  
427 2% 90%  
428 3% 87%  
429 3% 84%  
430 4% 81%  
431 6% 77%  
432 3% 71%  
433 4% 68%  
434 5% 64%  
435 5% 59%  
436 5% 53% Median
437 7% 49%  
438 4% 42%  
439 5% 38%  
440 4% 33%  
441 4% 29%  
442 4% 25%  
443 3% 21%  
444 3% 17%  
445 2% 15%  
446 2% 12%  
447 2% 10%  
448 2% 8%  
449 1.3% 6%  
450 2% 5%  
451 0.8% 3%  
452 0.6% 3%  
453 0.6% 2%  
454 0.3% 1.4%  
455 0.3% 1.1%  
456 0.3% 0.8%  
457 0.1% 0.5%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0.1% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0.1% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.8%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.2% 99.6%  
387 0.2% 99.5%  
388 0.4% 99.3%  
389 0.3% 98.9%  
390 0.5% 98.6%  
391 0.7% 98%  
392 1.1% 97%  
393 0.9% 96%  
394 2% 95%  
395 2% 94%  
396 2% 91%  
397 2% 89%  
398 2% 87%  
399 4% 84%  
400 4% 80%  
401 5% 77%  
402 3% 72%  
403 5% 69%  
404 4% 64%  
405 6% 60%  
406 4% 53% Median
407 5% 49%  
408 5% 44%  
409 4% 39%  
410 4% 35%  
411 5% 31%  
412 4% 26%  
413 3% 22%  
414 4% 19%  
415 2% 15%  
416 3% 13%  
417 2% 10%  
418 2% 8%  
419 1.1% 6%  
420 2% 5% Last Result
421 0.9% 4%  
422 0.7% 3%  
423 0.5% 2%  
424 0.5% 2%  
425 0.3% 1.1%  
426 0.2% 0.8%  
427 0.2% 0.6%  
428 0.1% 0.4%  
429 0.1% 0.3%  
430 0.1% 0.2%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0.1%  
433 0% 0.1%  
434 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.8%  
381 0.1% 99.7%  
382 0.2% 99.6%  
383 0.3% 99.4%  
384 0.3% 99.2%  
385 0.4% 98.8%  
386 0.5% 98%  
387 0.6% 98%  
388 0.8% 97%  
389 0.9% 96%  
390 1.2% 96%  
391 1.1% 94%  
392 2% 93%  
393 2% 92%  
394 4% 89%  
395 3% 86%  
396 3% 83%  
397 5% 79%  
398 5% 75%  
399 4% 70%  
400 6% 65%  
401 5% 59%  
402 6% 54% Median
403 5% 49%  
404 4% 43%  
405 3% 39%  
406 4% 36%  
407 3% 32%  
408 3% 29%  
409 4% 26%  
410 3% 22%  
411 4% 19%  
412 2% 15%  
413 3% 13%  
414 2% 10%  
415 2% 8%  
416 1.1% 6%  
417 1.3% 4%  
418 0.9% 3%  
419 0.8% 2%  
420 0.4% 1.4%  
421 0.3% 1.1%  
422 0.3% 0.7%  
423 0.1% 0.5%  
424 0.1% 0.4%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0.1% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.2% 99.6%  
361 0.3% 99.4%  
362 0.3% 99.1%  
363 0.5% 98.7%  
364 0.6% 98%  
365 0.7% 98%  
366 1.1% 97%  
367 0.9% 96%  
368 2% 95%  
369 2% 93%  
370 2% 92%  
371 3% 90%  
372 5% 87%  
373 3% 82%  
374 4% 80%  
375 4% 76%  
376 4% 72%  
377 4% 68%  
378 5% 64%  
379 5% 59%  
380 4% 53% Median
381 3% 49%  
382 6% 45%  
383 4% 40%  
384 4% 35%  
385 4% 31%  
386 4% 27%  
387 4% 23%  
388 3% 18%  
389 3% 15%  
390 2% 12%  
391 2% 10%  
392 1.5% 8%  
393 1.1% 6%  
394 1.3% 5%  
395 0.8% 4%  
396 0.6% 3%  
397 0.6% 2%  
398 0.5% 2%  
399 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
400 0.3% 0.9%  
401 0.2% 0.6%  
402 0.1% 0.4%  
403 0.1% 0.3%  
404 0.1% 0.2%  
405 0% 0.1%  
406 0% 0.1%  
407 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 99.9%  
327 0.1% 99.9%  
328 0.1% 99.8%  
329 0.1% 99.8%  
330 0.1% 99.6%  
331 0.3% 99.5%  
332 0.3% 99.2%  
333 0.4% 98.9%  
334 0.6% 98.6%  
335 0.6% 98%  
336 1.0% 97%  
337 1.3% 96%  
338 1.0% 95%  
339 2% 94%  
340 2% 92% Last Result
341 3% 90%  
342 4% 87%  
343 2% 84%  
344 4% 81%  
345 5% 77%  
346 4% 72%  
347 4% 68%  
348 4% 64%  
349 5% 60%  
350 6% 55% Median
351 5% 49%  
352 4% 44%  
353 5% 40%  
354 5% 35%  
355 4% 31% Majority
356 4% 27%  
357 3% 23%  
358 4% 20%  
359 2% 16%  
360 3% 14%  
361 2% 11%  
362 1.5% 9%  
363 2% 7%  
364 1.5% 5%  
365 0.6% 4%  
366 1.0% 3%  
367 0.7% 2%  
368 0.4% 2%  
369 0.3% 1.2%  
370 0.2% 0.9%  
371 0.3% 0.7%  
372 0.1% 0.4%  
373 0.1% 0.3%  
374 0.1% 0.2%  
375 0% 0.1%  
376 0% 0.1%  
377 0% 0.1%  
378 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
299 0% 100%  
300 0.1% 99.9%  
301 0.1% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.8%  
303 0.1% 99.8%  
304 0.3% 99.7%  
305 0.1% 99.3%  
306 0.2% 99.2%  
307 0.7% 99.0%  
308 0.6% 98%  
309 0.5% 98%  
310 0.8% 97%  
311 2% 97%  
312 2% 95%  
313 1.0% 93%  
314 2% 92%  
315 4% 90%  
316 2% 85%  
317 2% 83%  
318 4% 80%  
319 5% 77%  
320 4% 71%  
321 3% 67%  
322 7% 65%  
323 6% 57%  
324 2% 51% Median
325 5% 49%  
326 6% 44% Last Result
327 5% 38%  
328 3% 33%  
329 2% 30%  
330 7% 28%  
331 2% 20%  
332 3% 18%  
333 4% 16%  
334 2% 12%  
335 1.4% 10%  
336 2% 9%  
337 2% 7%  
338 1.0% 5%  
339 0.5% 4%  
340 1.0% 3%  
341 0.7% 2%  
342 0.4% 2%  
343 0.3% 1.2%  
344 0.3% 0.9%  
345 0.3% 0.7%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.1% 99.7%  
282 0.2% 99.6%  
283 0.2% 99.4%  
284 0.3% 99.2%  
285 0.5% 98.9%  
286 0.5% 98%  
287 0.7% 98%  
288 0.9% 97%  
289 2% 96% Last Result
290 1.1% 95%  
291 2% 94%  
292 2% 92%  
293 3% 90%  
294 2% 87%  
295 4% 85%  
296 3% 81%  
297 4% 78%  
298 5% 74%  
299 4% 69%  
300 4% 65%  
301 5% 61%  
302 5% 56% Median
303 4% 51%  
304 6% 47%  
305 4% 40%  
306 5% 36%  
307 3% 31%  
308 5% 28%  
309 4% 23%  
310 4% 20%  
311 2% 16%  
312 2% 13%  
313 2% 11%  
314 2% 9%  
315 2% 6%  
316 0.9% 5%  
317 1.1% 4%  
318 0.7% 3%  
319 0.5% 2%  
320 0.3% 1.4%  
321 0.4% 1.1%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.2% 0.5%  
324 0.1% 0.4%  
325 0.1% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
276 0% 100%  
277 0% 99.9%  
278 0% 99.9%  
279 0.1% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.8%  
281 0.2% 99.7%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.3% 99.4%  
284 0.3% 99.1%  
285 0.4% 98.8%  
286 0.7% 98%  
287 0.9% 98%  
288 0.7% 97%  
289 1.2% 96%  
290 2% 95%  
291 1.4% 93%  
292 3% 92%  
293 2% 89%  
294 3% 87%  
295 4% 84%  
296 3% 80%  
297 5% 77%  
298 3% 72%  
299 3% 69%  
300 7% 65% Last Result
301 5% 59%  
302 5% 54% Median
303 6% 49%  
304 4% 43%  
305 5% 39%  
306 5% 34%  
307 4% 29%  
308 5% 26%  
309 2% 20%  
310 3% 18%  
311 4% 15%  
312 2% 11%  
313 2% 10%  
314 2% 8%  
315 1.2% 6%  
316 1.5% 5%  
317 0.8% 3%  
318 0.6% 3%  
319 0.6% 2%  
320 0.2% 1.3%  
321 0.4% 1.1%  
322 0.2% 0.7%  
323 0.1% 0.5%  
324 0.2% 0.4%  
325 0% 0.2%  
326 0.1% 0.2%  
327 0% 0.1%  
328 0% 0.1%  
329 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0.1% 99.8%  
226 0.1% 99.7%  
227 0.3% 99.6%  
228 0.3% 99.4%  
229 0.2% 99.1%  
230 0.8% 98.9%  
231 0.7% 98%  
232 0.4% 97%  
233 1.2% 97%  
234 2% 96%  
235 0.9% 94%  
236 3% 93%  
237 2% 90%  
238 2% 88%  
239 5% 86%  
240 3% 81%  
241 3% 78%  
242 8% 76%  
243 2% 68%  
244 5% 65%  
245 7% 60%  
246 3% 53% Median
247 5% 50%  
248 8% 45%  
249 2% 37%  
250 7% 36%  
251 5% 28%  
252 2% 24%  
253 3% 21%  
254 5% 18%  
255 0.7% 13%  
256 4% 12%  
257 2% 9%  
258 1.1% 7%  
259 2% 6%  
260 0.6% 4%  
261 0.4% 3%  
262 1.2% 3%  
263 0.3% 2%  
264 0.3% 1.2%  
265 0.4% 1.0%  
266 0.1% 0.5%  
267 0.1% 0.4%  
268 0.2% 0.4%  
269 0% 0.2%  
270 0% 0.1%  
271 0.1% 0.1%  
272 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.7%  
151 0.2% 99.5%  
152 0.3% 99.4%  
153 0.7% 99.1%  
154 0.7% 98%  
155 0.6% 98%  
156 1.2% 97%  
157 2% 96%  
158 2% 94%  
159 2% 92%  
160 3% 90%  
161 4% 87%  
162 4% 83%  
163 4% 79%  
164 5% 75%  
165 5% 70%  
166 5% 64%  
167 6% 59%  
168 5% 53% Median
169 4% 48%  
170 7% 43%  
171 6% 36%  
172 3% 31%  
173 4% 27%  
174 7% 23%  
175 3% 16%  
176 2% 14%  
177 3% 12%  
178 4% 9%  
179 1.0% 6%  
180 0.9% 5%  
181 1.1% 4%  
182 1.1% 3%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.3%  
185 0.3% 0.8%  
186 0.2% 0.5%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.2%  
189 0% 0.1%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.2% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.6%  
152 0.4% 99.4%  
153 0.6% 99.0%  
154 0.8% 98%  
155 0.8% 98%  
156 1.2% 97%  
157 1.4% 96%  
158 2% 94%  
159 2% 92%  
160 3% 90%  
161 4% 87%  
162 4% 84%  
163 5% 80%  
164 5% 75%  
165 9% 70%  
166 5% 61%  
167 7% 57%  
168 5% 49% Median
169 5% 44%  
170 6% 39%  
171 4% 33%  
172 5% 29%  
173 4% 24%  
174 4% 20%  
175 3% 16%  
176 2% 13%  
177 2% 11%  
178 2% 9%  
179 1.2% 6%  
180 2% 5%  
181 0.8% 3%  
182 0.9% 3%  
183 0.4% 2%  
184 0.4% 1.4%  
185 0.3% 0.9%  
186 0.2% 0.6%  
187 0.1% 0.4%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations