Opinion Poll by YouGov, 30 December 2020–5 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 27.8–30.8% 27.4–31.2% 27.1–31.6% 26.4–32.3%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 16.8–19.3% 16.5–19.7% 16.2–20.0% 15.6–20.6%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.2% 13.6–16.5% 13.3–16.8% 12.8–17.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.3% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.5% 7.3–11.0%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.0–7.6% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.1% 5.3–8.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 6.0% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.3% 4.6–7.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 209–232 207–236 204–239 199–246
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 126–146 124–149 122–151 118–156
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 104–122 102–125 100–127 96–132
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 68–83 67–85 65–87 62–91
Die Linke 69 68 61–75 60–77 58–80 55–83
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 45–57 44–59 42–61 40–64
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 45 40–51 38–53 0–54 0–58

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
193 0% 100%  
194 0% 99.9%  
195 0.1% 99.9%  
196 0.1% 99.8%  
197 0.1% 99.8%  
198 0.1% 99.7%  
199 0.2% 99.6%  
200 0.3% 99.4% Last Result
201 0.3% 99.1%  
202 0.4% 98.8%  
203 0.6% 98%  
204 0.6% 98%  
205 0.9% 97%  
206 1.3% 96%  
207 1.4% 95%  
208 2% 94%  
209 2% 92%  
210 2% 90%  
211 2% 88%  
212 3% 85%  
213 3% 82%  
214 4% 79%  
215 3% 76%  
216 5% 72%  
217 4% 67%  
218 4% 63%  
219 4% 59%  
220 6% 55% Median
221 4% 49%  
222 5% 45%  
223 5% 40%  
224 4% 36%  
225 4% 32%  
226 3% 28%  
227 3% 24%  
228 2% 21%  
229 3% 19%  
230 2% 16%  
231 2% 13%  
232 2% 11%  
233 2% 9%  
234 1.3% 8%  
235 1.2% 6%  
236 0.9% 5%  
237 0.8% 4%  
238 0.6% 3%  
239 0.6% 3%  
240 0.5% 2%  
241 0.3% 2%  
242 0.2% 1.3%  
243 0.2% 1.1%  
244 0.2% 0.8%  
245 0.1% 0.6%  
246 0.1% 0.5%  
247 0.1% 0.5%  
248 0.1% 0.4%  
249 0.1% 0.3%  
250 0% 0.3%  
251 0% 0.2%  
252 0% 0.2%  
253 0% 0.1%  
254 0% 0.1%  
255 0% 0.1%  
256 0% 0.1%  
257 0% 0.1%  
258 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 99.9%  
115 0.1% 99.9%  
116 0.1% 99.8%  
117 0.1% 99.7%  
118 0.2% 99.6%  
119 0.3% 99.3%  
120 0.5% 99.0%  
121 0.7% 98.6%  
122 1.0% 98%  
123 1.2% 97%  
124 2% 96%  
125 2% 94%  
126 3% 92%  
127 3% 89%  
128 3% 87%  
129 4% 84%  
130 4% 80%  
131 5% 75%  
132 6% 71%  
133 5% 65%  
134 6% 60%  
135 5% 55% Median
136 5% 50%  
137 4% 45%  
138 4% 41%  
139 5% 36%  
140 4% 31%  
141 4% 28%  
142 4% 23%  
143 4% 19%  
144 3% 16%  
145 3% 13%  
146 2% 10%  
147 2% 8%  
148 1.4% 6%  
149 1.2% 5%  
150 0.9% 4%  
151 0.7% 3%  
152 0.6% 2%  
153 0.4% 2%  
154 0.3% 1.1%  
155 0.2% 0.9%  
156 0.2% 0.6%  
157 0.1% 0.4%  
158 0.1% 0.3%  
159 0.1% 0.2%  
160 0% 0.2%  
161 0% 0.1%  
162 0% 0.1%  
163 0% 0.1%  
164 0% 0.1%  
165 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.5%  
98 0.5% 99.2%  
99 0.6% 98.7%  
100 1.0% 98%  
101 1.4% 97%  
102 1.3% 96%  
103 3% 94%  
104 2% 92%  
105 3% 89%  
106 3% 86%  
107 4% 83%  
108 5% 79%  
109 5% 74%  
110 5% 69%  
111 5% 64%  
112 5% 59%  
113 6% 54% Median
114 5% 48%  
115 6% 43%  
116 5% 37%  
117 5% 32%  
118 5% 27%  
119 4% 22%  
120 3% 18%  
121 2% 14%  
122 3% 12%  
123 2% 9%  
124 2% 7%  
125 1.3% 5%  
126 1.0% 4%  
127 0.7% 3%  
128 0.5% 2%  
129 0.4% 2%  
130 0.3% 1.1%  
131 0.2% 0.8%  
132 0.2% 0.6%  
133 0.1% 0.4%  
134 0.1% 0.3%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.6%  
63 0.4% 99.2%  
64 0.7% 98.8%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 4% 90%  
70 4% 86%  
71 4% 82%  
72 7% 78%  
73 6% 71%  
74 6% 65%  
75 8% 59%  
76 9% 51% Median
77 5% 42%  
78 6% 37%  
79 6% 31%  
80 4% 25%  
81 4% 21%  
82 4% 16%  
83 3% 12%  
84 2% 9%  
85 2% 7%  
86 1.3% 5%  
87 1.1% 4%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.1%  
91 0.2% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 0.6% 99.4%  
57 1.0% 98.7%  
58 1.0% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 3% 92%  
62 3% 89%  
63 5% 86%  
64 7% 81%  
65 4% 74%  
66 8% 70%  
67 9% 62%  
68 6% 53% Median
69 5% 47% Last Result
70 7% 42%  
71 8% 34%  
72 4% 27%  
73 5% 22%  
74 4% 17%  
75 3% 13%  
76 2% 10%  
77 3% 8%  
78 1.4% 5%  
79 0.7% 3%  
80 1.0% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 0.7% 99.1%  
42 1.2% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 3% 95%  
45 3% 92%  
46 5% 89% Last Result
47 7% 84%  
48 8% 77%  
49 7% 69%  
50 8% 62%  
51 10% 55% Median
52 7% 45%  
53 8% 38%  
54 6% 30%  
55 5% 24%  
56 5% 19%  
57 4% 13%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 0.6% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.2%  
64 0.2% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 0% 96%  
8 0% 96%  
9 0% 96%  
10 0% 96%  
11 0% 96%  
12 0% 96%  
13 0% 96%  
14 0% 96%  
15 0% 96%  
16 0% 96%  
17 0% 96%  
18 0% 96%  
19 0% 96%  
20 0% 96%  
21 0% 96%  
22 0% 96%  
23 0% 96%  
24 0% 96%  
25 0% 96%  
26 0% 96%  
27 0% 96%  
28 0% 96%  
29 0% 96%  
30 0% 96%  
31 0% 96%  
32 0% 96%  
33 0% 96%  
34 0% 96%  
35 0% 96%  
36 0% 96%  
37 0% 96%  
38 2% 96%  
39 2% 95%  
40 4% 92%  
41 6% 88%  
42 7% 82%  
43 6% 74%  
44 11% 68%  
45 10% 58% Median
46 10% 48%  
47 8% 38%  
48 7% 30%  
49 6% 23%  
50 5% 17%  
51 4% 12%  
52 2% 8%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.5% 4%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 0.5% 1.0%  
58 0.2% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 510–531 507–537 504–554 498–566
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 452 100% 440–464 437–466 433–469 425–474
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 430 100% 417–441 413–444 409–447 400–452
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 406 100% 396–420 393–425 390–433 384–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 392 99.8% 379–404 375–407 371–410 360–415
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 99.9% 372–397 369–402 366–409 361–421
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 347 24% 335–360 332–365 329–370 323–380
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 317 0.2% 305–330 302–334 299–338 294–349
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 316 0% 303–328 299–332 292–334 281–340
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 293 0% 281–306 276–309 269–312 257–317
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 237–261 235–265 232–269 226–277
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 182 0% 171–191 169–194 167–198 161–205
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 158 0% 147–168 143–171 124–174 113–178

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 99.9%  
494 0% 99.9%  
495 0.1% 99.9%  
496 0.1% 99.8%  
497 0.1% 99.7%  
498 0.2% 99.7%  
499 0.1% 99.4%  
500 0.2% 99.3%  
501 0.3% 99.1%  
502 0.4% 98.8%  
503 0.4% 98%  
504 0.8% 98%  
505 0.6% 97%  
506 2% 97%  
507 0.8% 95%  
508 2% 94%  
509 2% 92%  
510 2% 91%  
511 2% 88%  
512 3% 86%  
513 3% 83%  
514 5% 80%  
515 3% 76%  
516 4% 72%  
517 6% 68%  
518 6% 62%  
519 5% 56% Median
520 4% 51%  
521 5% 46%  
522 5% 42%  
523 6% 37%  
524 4% 31%  
525 3% 28%  
526 3% 24%  
527 4% 22%  
528 2% 18%  
529 3% 16%  
530 2% 13%  
531 2% 11%  
532 2% 10%  
533 0.9% 8%  
534 0.5% 7%  
535 1.1% 7%  
536 0.4% 6%  
537 0.4% 5%  
538 0.3% 5%  
539 0.3% 4%  
540 0.3% 4%  
541 0.1% 4%  
542 0.2% 4%  
543 0.1% 4%  
544 0.1% 4%  
545 0.1% 4%  
546 0.2% 3%  
547 0.1% 3%  
548 0.1% 3%  
549 0.1% 3%  
550 0.2% 3%  
551 0.1% 3%  
552 0% 3%  
553 0.1% 3%  
554 0.3% 3%  
555 0.1% 2%  
556 0.2% 2%  
557 0.1% 2%  
558 0.4% 2%  
559 0.3% 1.5%  
560 0.1% 1.2%  
561 0.1% 1.1%  
562 0.1% 1.0%  
563 0.1% 0.8%  
564 0.1% 0.7%  
565 0.1% 0.6%  
566 0.1% 0.5%  
567 0.2% 0.5%  
568 0% 0.2%  
569 0.1% 0.2%  
570 0% 0.1%  
571 0% 0.1%  
572 0% 0.1%  
573 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0% 99.9%  
417 0% 99.9%  
418 0% 99.9%  
419 0% 99.9%  
420 0% 99.8%  
421 0.1% 99.8%  
422 0.1% 99.7%  
423 0.1% 99.7%  
424 0.1% 99.6%  
425 0.2% 99.5%  
426 0.2% 99.4%  
427 0.2% 99.1%  
428 0.1% 98.9%  
429 0.3% 98.8%  
430 0.3% 98.5%  
431 0.3% 98%  
432 0.5% 98%  
433 0.4% 98%  
434 0.5% 97%  
435 0.5% 97%  
436 1.0% 96%  
437 1.1% 95%  
438 1.0% 94%  
439 2% 93%  
440 2% 91%  
441 2% 89%  
442 2% 87%  
443 3% 85%  
444 5% 82%  
445 4% 77%  
446 4% 74%  
447 5% 70%  
448 3% 65%  
449 5% 62%  
450 3% 57%  
451 4% 54% Median
452 4% 50%  
453 3% 46%  
454 4% 43%  
455 4% 40%  
456 3% 36%  
457 3% 33%  
458 4% 30%  
459 3% 26%  
460 3% 23%  
461 4% 20%  
462 3% 16%  
463 3% 13%  
464 2% 11%  
465 2% 9%  
466 1.4% 6%  
467 1.2% 5%  
468 1.1% 4%  
469 0.6% 3%  
470 0.5% 2%  
471 0.4% 2%  
472 0.4% 1.2%  
473 0.2% 0.8%  
474 0.1% 0.6%  
475 0.2% 0.5%  
476 0.1% 0.3%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0.1% 0.2%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0% 99.8%  
398 0.1% 99.7%  
399 0.1% 99.6%  
400 0.1% 99.6%  
401 0.2% 99.5%  
402 0.1% 99.3%  
403 0.2% 99.2%  
404 0.1% 99.0%  
405 0.3% 98.9%  
406 0.2% 98.6%  
407 0.3% 98%  
408 0.5% 98%  
409 0.4% 98%  
410 0.6% 97%  
411 0.8% 97%  
412 0.7% 96%  
413 0.6% 95%  
414 1.0% 95%  
415 2% 94%  
416 1.0% 92%  
417 2% 91%  
418 2% 89%  
419 1.5% 87%  
420 2% 85%  
421 4% 83%  
422 3% 79%  
423 3% 77%  
424 4% 74%  
425 3% 69%  
426 3% 66%  
427 5% 63%  
428 4% 58%  
429 3% 54% Median
430 6% 50%  
431 4% 44%  
432 2% 40%  
433 5% 37%  
434 4% 33%  
435 3% 28%  
436 3% 26%  
437 4% 22%  
438 2% 18%  
439 2% 16%  
440 4% 14%  
441 2% 11%  
442 1.5% 9%  
443 2% 8%  
444 1.2% 6%  
445 0.8% 5%  
446 0.6% 4%  
447 1.0% 3%  
448 0.4% 2%  
449 0.4% 2%  
450 0.5% 1.4%  
451 0.2% 0.9%  
452 0.2% 0.7%  
453 0.2% 0.5%  
454 0.1% 0.3%  
455 0.1% 0.3%  
456 0.1% 0.2%  
457 0% 0.1%  
458 0% 0.1%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0% 99.9%  
380 0.1% 99.9%  
381 0% 99.8%  
382 0.1% 99.7%  
383 0.1% 99.6%  
384 0.1% 99.5%  
385 0.2% 99.4%  
386 0.2% 99.2%  
387 0.4% 99.0%  
388 0.3% 98.6%  
389 0.4% 98%  
390 0.6% 98%  
391 0.8% 97%  
392 1.4% 96%  
393 1.1% 95%  
394 2% 94%  
395 1.4% 92%  
396 3% 91%  
397 3% 88%  
398 3% 85%  
399 4% 82%  
400 4% 78%  
401 3% 74%  
402 3% 71%  
403 6% 68%  
404 4% 62%  
405 4% 58%  
406 5% 54% Median
407 3% 50%  
408 3% 47%  
409 3% 44%  
410 3% 41%  
411 5% 38%  
412 3% 32%  
413 3% 29%  
414 3% 27%  
415 3% 24%  
416 3% 21%  
417 3% 18%  
418 2% 15%  
419 2% 12%  
420 1.4% 10%  
421 1.3% 9%  
422 0.8% 8%  
423 1.0% 7%  
424 0.8% 6%  
425 0.5% 5%  
426 0.5% 5%  
427 0.4% 4%  
428 0.2% 4%  
429 0.3% 3%  
430 0.3% 3%  
431 0.1% 3%  
432 0.3% 3%  
433 0.2% 3%  
434 0.2% 2%  
435 0.1% 2%  
436 0.2% 2%  
437 0.1% 2%  
438 0.1% 2%  
439 0.3% 2%  
440 0.2% 1.4%  
441 0.2% 1.2%  
442 0.1% 1.1%  
443 0.3% 1.0%  
444 0.1% 0.7%  
445 0.1% 0.7%  
446 0.2% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0.1%  
456 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 99.9%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0% 99.9%  
355 0% 99.8% Majority
356 0% 99.8%  
357 0.1% 99.8%  
358 0.1% 99.7%  
359 0% 99.6%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0.1% 99.5%  
362 0.1% 99.4%  
363 0.1% 99.4%  
364 0.1% 99.3%  
365 0.1% 99.2%  
366 0.2% 99.1%  
367 0.2% 98.9%  
368 0.4% 98.7%  
369 0.3% 98%  
370 0.4% 98%  
371 0.6% 98%  
372 0.5% 97%  
373 0.6% 96%  
374 0.6% 96%  
375 1.2% 95%  
376 0.7% 94%  
377 2% 93%  
378 1.0% 92%  
379 2% 91%  
380 2% 89%  
381 2% 87%  
382 2% 85%  
383 2% 83%  
384 2% 81%  
385 3% 79%  
386 4% 76%  
387 3% 72%  
388 3% 69%  
389 3% 66%  
390 5% 63%  
391 6% 57%  
392 4% 51% Median
393 4% 47%  
394 4% 43%  
395 4% 39%  
396 3% 35%  
397 4% 31%  
398 3% 28%  
399 3% 25%  
400 3% 22%  
401 3% 19%  
402 2% 16%  
403 2% 14%  
404 3% 12%  
405 1.4% 9%  
406 2% 7%  
407 0.9% 6%  
408 1.0% 5%  
409 1.0% 4%  
410 0.7% 3%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.4% 2%  
413 0.3% 1.2%  
414 0.3% 0.9%  
415 0.2% 0.6%  
416 0.1% 0.4%  
417 0.1% 0.3%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.1% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0.1% 99.9%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.2% 99.6%  
362 0.2% 99.4%  
363 0.4% 99.2%  
364 0.2% 98.8%  
365 0.5% 98.5%  
366 0.7% 98%  
367 0.4% 97%  
368 0.9% 97%  
369 1.2% 96%  
370 2% 95%  
371 2% 93%  
372 2% 92%  
373 1.2% 89%  
374 2% 88%  
375 3% 87%  
376 3% 84%  
377 4% 81%  
378 3% 77%  
379 5% 74%  
380 2% 69%  
381 4% 67%  
382 4% 63%  
383 4% 59%  
384 5% 55% Median
385 4% 50%  
386 6% 46%  
387 2% 40%  
388 4% 38%  
389 2% 33%  
390 4% 31%  
391 3% 27%  
392 3% 24%  
393 4% 21%  
394 2% 17%  
395 2% 15%  
396 0.8% 13%  
397 2% 12%  
398 1.0% 10%  
399 1.4% 9% Last Result
400 1.3% 8%  
401 0.8% 6%  
402 0.6% 6%  
403 0.6% 5%  
404 0.3% 4%  
405 0.5% 4%  
406 0.3% 4%  
407 0.4% 3%  
408 0.3% 3%  
409 0.1% 3%  
410 0.4% 2%  
411 0.2% 2%  
412 0.1% 2%  
413 0.2% 2%  
414 0.1% 2%  
415 0.2% 1.4%  
416 0.1% 1.2%  
417 0.3% 1.1%  
418 0.1% 0.8%  
419 0.1% 0.8%  
420 0.2% 0.7%  
421 0% 0.5%  
422 0.1% 0.5%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.3%  
426 0% 0.2%  
427 0% 0.2%  
428 0% 0.1%  
429 0% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.8%  
322 0.1% 99.7%  
323 0.2% 99.6%  
324 0.2% 99.5%  
325 0.3% 99.3%  
326 0.3% 99.0%  
327 0.3% 98.6%  
328 0.5% 98%  
329 0.6% 98%  
330 0.8% 97%  
331 0.9% 96%  
332 1.0% 96%  
333 2% 95%  
334 2% 93%  
335 2% 91%  
336 2% 89%  
337 2% 87%  
338 3% 84%  
339 3% 82%  
340 2% 78% Last Result
341 3% 76%  
342 3% 73%  
343 4% 69%  
344 4% 66%  
345 4% 62%  
346 6% 58%  
347 5% 52% Median
348 3% 47%  
349 6% 44%  
350 3% 39%  
351 3% 35%  
352 3% 32%  
353 2% 29%  
354 3% 27%  
355 3% 24% Majority
356 3% 21%  
357 3% 18%  
358 3% 15%  
359 2% 12%  
360 1.1% 10%  
361 1.3% 9%  
362 1.1% 8%  
363 0.7% 7%  
364 0.6% 6%  
365 0.7% 6%  
366 0.5% 5%  
367 0.5% 4%  
368 0.6% 4%  
369 0.4% 3%  
370 0.3% 3%  
371 0.4% 2%  
372 0.2% 2%  
373 0.3% 2%  
374 0.2% 2%  
375 0.2% 1.3%  
376 0.1% 1.1%  
377 0.2% 1.0%  
378 0.1% 0.8%  
379 0.1% 0.7%  
380 0.1% 0.6%  
381 0.1% 0.4%  
382 0% 0.4%  
383 0% 0.3%  
384 0% 0.3%  
385 0% 0.2%  
386 0% 0.2%  
387 0% 0.2%  
388 0% 0.2%  
389 0% 0.1%  
390 0% 0.1%  
391 0% 0.1%  
392 0% 0.1%  
393 0% 0.1%  
394 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
287 0% 100%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.9%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.1% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.7%  
294 0.2% 99.6%  
295 0.3% 99.4%  
296 0.3% 99.1%  
297 0.4% 98.8%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.7% 98%  
300 1.0% 97%  
301 1.0% 96%  
302 0.9% 95%  
303 2% 94%  
304 1.4% 93%  
305 3% 91%  
306 2% 88%  
307 2% 86%  
308 3% 84%  
309 3% 81%  
310 3% 78%  
311 3% 75%  
312 4% 72%  
313 3% 69%  
314 4% 65%  
315 4% 61%  
316 4% 57% Median
317 4% 53%  
318 6% 49%  
319 5% 43%  
320 3% 37%  
321 3% 34%  
322 3% 31%  
323 4% 28%  
324 3% 24%  
325 2% 21%  
326 2% 19%  
327 2% 17%  
328 2% 15%  
329 2% 13%  
330 2% 11%  
331 1.0% 9%  
332 2% 8%  
333 0.7% 7%  
334 1.2% 6%  
335 0.6% 5%  
336 0.6% 4%  
337 0.5% 4%  
338 0.6% 3%  
339 0.4% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.3%  
343 0.2% 1.1%  
344 0.1% 0.9%  
345 0.1% 0.8%  
346 0.1% 0.7%  
347 0.1% 0.6%  
348 0.1% 0.6%  
349 0.1% 0.5%  
350 0% 0.4%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.2%  
355 0% 0.2% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0.1%  
358 0% 0.1%  
359 0% 0.1%  
360 0% 0.1%  
361 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
269 0% 100%  
270 0% 99.9%  
271 0% 99.9%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.8%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0% 99.8%  
277 0% 99.7%  
278 0% 99.7%  
279 0.1% 99.7%  
280 0% 99.6%  
281 0.1% 99.5%  
282 0.1% 99.5%  
283 0.1% 99.4%  
284 0.1% 99.3%  
285 0.2% 99.2%  
286 0.2% 99.0%  
287 0.1% 98.8%  
288 0.2% 98.7%  
289 0.2% 98%  
290 0.4% 98%  
291 0.2% 98%  
292 0.2% 98%  
293 0.2% 97%  
294 0.4% 97%  
295 0.5% 97%  
296 0.6% 96%  
297 0.4% 96%  
298 0.4% 95%  
299 0.9% 95%  
300 1.2% 94%  
301 1.0% 93%  
302 1.1% 92%  
303 0.9% 91%  
304 2% 90%  
305 3% 88%  
306 2% 85%  
307 2% 83%  
308 2% 81%  
309 3% 79%  
310 3% 77%  
311 4% 73%  
312 4% 69%  
313 3% 65%  
314 3% 63%  
315 6% 60%  
316 5% 54% Median
317 4% 49%  
318 4% 45%  
319 3% 41%  
320 5% 38%  
321 4% 33%  
322 4% 29%  
323 3% 25%  
324 2% 22%  
325 3% 20%  
326 4% 17% Last Result
327 3% 14%  
328 1.5% 11%  
329 1.5% 9%  
330 1.4% 8%  
331 1.4% 7%  
332 2% 5%  
333 0.7% 4%  
334 0.5% 3%  
335 0.5% 2%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.3% 1.5%  
338 0.4% 1.1%  
339 0.1% 0.7%  
340 0.1% 0.6%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.3%  
343 0.1% 0.2%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
246 0% 100%  
247 0% 99.9%  
248 0% 99.9%  
249 0% 99.9%  
250 0% 99.9%  
251 0% 99.8%  
252 0% 99.8%  
253 0% 99.8%  
254 0.1% 99.7%  
255 0.1% 99.7%  
256 0.1% 99.6%  
257 0.1% 99.5%  
258 0.1% 99.4%  
259 0.1% 99.3%  
260 0.2% 99.2%  
261 0.1% 99.0%  
262 0.3% 98.9%  
263 0.1% 98.7%  
264 0.3% 98.5%  
265 0.1% 98%  
266 0.2% 98%  
267 0.1% 98%  
268 0.2% 98%  
269 0.3% 98%  
270 0.3% 97%  
271 0.3% 97%  
272 0.3% 97%  
273 0.3% 96%  
274 0.6% 96%  
275 0.4% 95%  
276 0.6% 95%  
277 1.0% 95%  
278 0.8% 93%  
279 0.9% 93%  
280 1.4% 92%  
281 2% 90%  
282 2% 89%  
283 2% 87%  
284 2% 85%  
285 2% 83%  
286 4% 80%  
287 3% 77%  
288 3% 74%  
289 3% 70%  
290 5% 67%  
291 5% 62%  
292 3% 58%  
293 5% 54% Median
294 3% 50%  
295 4% 47%  
296 4% 42%  
297 5% 39%  
298 4% 34%  
299 3% 30%  
300 3% 27% Last Result
301 3% 23%  
302 3% 21%  
303 3% 18%  
304 2% 14%  
305 2% 13%  
306 2% 11%  
307 1.2% 8%  
308 2% 7%  
309 1.2% 6%  
310 0.9% 4%  
311 0.6% 3%  
312 0.8% 3%  
313 0.4% 2%  
314 0.4% 2%  
315 0.4% 1.3%  
316 0.2% 0.8%  
317 0.2% 0.6%  
318 0.1% 0.5%  
319 0.1% 0.3%  
320 0.1% 0.2%  
321 0.1% 0.2%  
322 0% 0.1%  
323 0% 0.1%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 99.9%  
223 0.1% 99.9%  
224 0.1% 99.8%  
225 0.1% 99.7%  
226 0.1% 99.6%  
227 0.2% 99.5%  
228 0.2% 99.3%  
229 0.2% 99.1%  
230 0.4% 98.9%  
231 0.4% 98%  
232 0.8% 98%  
233 0.9% 97%  
234 1.2% 96%  
235 1.3% 95%  
236 2% 94%  
237 2% 92%  
238 2% 89%  
239 3% 87%  
240 2% 84%  
241 4% 82%  
242 3% 78%  
243 3% 75%  
244 4% 72%  
245 3% 68%  
246 4% 66%  
247 5% 62%  
248 4% 57% Median
249 6% 53%  
250 4% 47%  
251 6% 43%  
252 5% 38%  
253 4% 33%  
254 4% 29%  
255 3% 25%  
256 3% 22%  
257 2% 19%  
258 2% 17%  
259 2% 15%  
260 2% 14%  
261 2% 12%  
262 2% 10%  
263 2% 8%  
264 1.2% 7%  
265 1.1% 6%  
266 0.9% 4%  
267 0.6% 4%  
268 0.4% 3%  
269 0.5% 3%  
270 0.3% 2%  
271 0.3% 2%  
272 0.2% 1.3%  
273 0.2% 1.1%  
274 0.2% 1.0%  
275 0.1% 0.8%  
276 0.1% 0.7%  
277 0.1% 0.5%  
278 0.1% 0.4%  
279 0.1% 0.3%  
280 0.1% 0.3%  
281 0% 0.2%  
282 0% 0.1%  
283 0% 0.1%  
284 0% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0.1%  
287 0% 0.1%  
288 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
155 0% 100%  
156 0% 99.9%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.8%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.1% 99.7%  
161 0.1% 99.6%  
162 0.2% 99.5%  
163 0.2% 99.3%  
164 0.4% 99.1%  
165 0.4% 98.8%  
166 0.7% 98%  
167 1.2% 98%  
168 1.2% 96%  
169 2% 95%  
170 2% 93%  
171 3% 91%  
172 4% 87%  
173 4% 84%  
174 5% 80%  
175 4% 75%  
176 5% 72%  
177 3% 67%  
178 3% 64%  
179 3% 61%  
180 3% 58%  
181 3% 56% Median
182 3% 52%  
183 4% 49%  
184 4% 45%  
185 4% 42%  
186 6% 37%  
187 4% 31%  
188 6% 27%  
189 3% 20%  
190 5% 17%  
191 3% 12%  
192 2% 9%  
193 1.2% 7%  
194 1.1% 6%  
195 0.6% 5%  
196 0.8% 4%  
197 0.5% 3%  
198 0.4% 3%  
199 0.3% 2%  
200 0.5% 2%  
201 0.3% 2%  
202 0.3% 1.2%  
203 0.2% 0.9%  
204 0.2% 0.7%  
205 0.2% 0.5%  
206 0.1% 0.4%  
207 0.1% 0.3%  
208 0.1% 0.2%  
209 0% 0.1%  
210 0% 0.1%  
211 0% 0.1%  
212 0% 0.1%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0% 99.9%  
109 0% 99.9%  
110 0.1% 99.8%  
111 0% 99.8%  
112 0.1% 99.7%  
113 0.2% 99.6%  
114 0.1% 99.4%  
115 0.2% 99.3%  
116 0.3% 99.1%  
117 0.1% 98.8%  
118 0.1% 98.7%  
119 0.2% 98.6%  
120 0.3% 98%  
121 0.2% 98%  
122 0.2% 98%  
123 0.2% 98%  
124 0.1% 98%  
125 0.2% 97%  
126 0.2% 97%  
127 0.1% 97%  
128 0.1% 97%  
129 0.1% 97%  
130 0.1% 97%  
131 0.1% 97%  
132 0.1% 96%  
133 0% 96%  
134 0% 96%  
135 0% 96%  
136 0.1% 96%  
137 0.1% 96%  
138 0.1% 96%  
139 0.2% 96%  
140 0.1% 96%  
141 0.2% 96%  
142 0.3% 95%  
143 0.5% 95%  
144 0.7% 95%  
145 1.4% 94%  
146 2% 93%  
147 2% 91%  
148 1.3% 89%  
149 2% 88%  
150 3% 86%  
151 3% 83%  
152 4% 81%  
153 5% 77%  
154 5% 72%  
155 3% 66%  
156 3% 63%  
157 5% 60%  
158 5% 55% Median
159 6% 49%  
160 5% 43%  
161 5% 38%  
162 4% 33%  
163 4% 29%  
164 4% 25%  
165 3% 22%  
166 4% 18%  
167 3% 15%  
168 3% 12%  
169 2% 9%  
170 2% 7%  
171 1.0% 5%  
172 1.0% 4%  
173 0.9% 3%  
174 0.7% 3%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.4% 1.3%  
177 0.4% 1.0%  
178 0.2% 0.6%  
179 0.1% 0.4%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations