Opinion Poll by Infratest dimap, 4–6 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.4% 27.0–29.9% 26.6–30.4% 26.2–30.7% 25.5–31.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 21.0% 19.7–22.4% 19.3–22.8% 19.0–23.1% 18.4–23.8%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 12.9–15.2% 12.6–15.6% 12.3–15.9% 11.8–16.4%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.1–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.6–11.6% 8.2–12.1%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.4–8.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.6% 5.8–7.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–7.9% 5.1–8.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 213 203–224 200–228 197–231 192–236
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 158 148–168 145–171 143–174 139–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 106 97–115 95–117 93–119 89–124
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 68–83 67–85 65–87 62–91
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 46–59 45–61 43–63 41–66
Die Linke 69 53 47–59 45–61 44–63 41–66
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 44–56 42–58 41–60 38–63

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
187 0% 100%  
188 0% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.9%  
190 0.1% 99.8%  
191 0.1% 99.7%  
192 0.1% 99.6%  
193 0.2% 99.5%  
194 0.2% 99.3%  
195 0.3% 99.1%  
196 0.7% 98.8%  
197 0.6% 98%  
198 1.3% 97%  
199 1.0% 96%  
200 1.3% 95% Last Result
201 2% 94%  
202 1.3% 92%  
203 3% 91%  
204 2% 88%  
205 4% 86%  
206 2% 83%  
207 4% 81%  
208 3% 77%  
209 4% 73%  
210 4% 70%  
211 5% 65%  
212 7% 61%  
213 5% 54% Median
214 5% 49%  
215 4% 44%  
216 3% 40%  
217 2% 37%  
218 3% 34%  
219 4% 31%  
220 4% 27%  
221 4% 23%  
222 4% 18%  
223 2% 14%  
224 2% 12%  
225 1.1% 10%  
226 2% 9%  
227 1.2% 7%  
228 1.1% 6%  
229 1.0% 5%  
230 0.7% 4%  
231 0.7% 3%  
232 0.6% 2%  
233 0.3% 2%  
234 0.5% 2%  
235 0.3% 1.0%  
236 0.2% 0.7%  
237 0.2% 0.5%  
238 0.1% 0.3%  
239 0.1% 0.2%  
240 0% 0.2%  
241 0% 0.1%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 100%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0.1% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.1% 99.7%  
139 0.2% 99.5%  
140 0.4% 99.3%  
141 0.4% 99.0%  
142 0.5% 98.6%  
143 0.7% 98%  
144 1.0% 97%  
145 1.3% 96%  
146 1.2% 95%  
147 3% 94%  
148 2% 91%  
149 3% 89%  
150 2% 86%  
151 4% 84%  
152 3% 80%  
153 4% 77%  
154 4% 73%  
155 4% 68%  
156 6% 64%  
157 5% 59%  
158 6% 54% Median
159 4% 48%  
160 6% 44%  
161 5% 38%  
162 4% 32%  
163 5% 28%  
164 3% 24%  
165 4% 21%  
166 3% 17%  
167 2% 14%  
168 3% 12%  
169 1.4% 9%  
170 2% 8%  
171 1.0% 5%  
172 1.0% 4%  
173 0.6% 3%  
174 0.8% 3%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.3% 2%  
177 0.3% 1.2%  
178 0.3% 0.9%  
179 0.2% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100%  
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.5%  
91 0.5% 99.1%  
92 0.7% 98.6%  
93 0.8% 98%  
94 1.1% 97%  
95 2% 96%  
96 2% 94%  
97 3% 92%  
98 3% 89%  
99 4% 86%  
100 3% 82%  
101 5% 78%  
102 6% 73%  
103 6% 67%  
104 6% 62%  
105 6% 56%  
106 7% 50% Median
107 5% 44%  
108 4% 38%  
109 6% 34%  
110 4% 28%  
111 5% 24%  
112 3% 19%  
113 3% 15%  
114 3% 13%  
115 3% 10%  
116 2% 7%  
117 1.2% 5%  
118 1.3% 4%  
119 0.7% 3%  
120 0.7% 2%  
121 0.5% 2%  
122 0.4% 1.1%  
123 0.2% 0.7%  
124 0.2% 0.5%  
125 0.1% 0.3%  
126 0.1% 0.2%  
127 0.1% 0.2%  
128 0% 0.1%  
129 0% 0.1%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.5%  
63 0.6% 99.0%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 1.4% 97%  
67 2% 95%  
68 3% 93%  
69 4% 90%  
70 5% 86%  
71 6% 81%  
72 6% 75%  
73 6% 69%  
74 7% 63%  
75 6% 56% Median
76 6% 50%  
77 6% 44%  
78 7% 38%  
79 6% 31%  
80 5% 25%  
81 5% 21%  
82 4% 16%  
83 3% 12%  
84 3% 9%  
85 2% 6%  
86 1.5% 5%  
87 1.0% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.3% 1.0%  
91 0.2% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.6%  
42 0.7% 99.3%  
43 1.1% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 3% 93%  
47 4% 90%  
48 5% 86%  
49 6% 82%  
50 6% 76%  
51 8% 70%  
52 6% 62%  
53 9% 56% Median
54 8% 47%  
55 8% 39%  
56 8% 31%  
57 6% 23%  
58 4% 17%  
59 4% 13%  
60 3% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.4% 4%  
63 0.9% 3%  
64 0.6% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.1%  
66 0.2% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.6%  
42 0.7% 99.3%  
43 0.8% 98.6%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 4% 94%  
47 4% 90%  
48 6% 86%  
49 6% 80%  
50 7% 74%  
51 8% 67%  
52 7% 59%  
53 9% 52% Median
54 7% 43%  
55 7% 36%  
56 6% 28%  
57 6% 22%  
58 4% 17%  
59 4% 13%  
60 2% 9%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.4% 4%  
63 1.0% 3%  
64 0.7% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 0.5% 99.5%  
40 1.1% 99.0%  
41 1.3% 98%  
42 2% 97%  
43 3% 94%  
44 4% 91%  
45 6% 87%  
46 7% 82% Last Result
47 7% 75%  
48 7% 68%  
49 9% 61%  
50 7% 52% Median
51 10% 45%  
52 6% 35%  
53 6% 28%  
54 6% 22%  
55 4% 16%  
56 4% 12%  
57 3% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.8% 3%  
61 0.7% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.2% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 528 100% 517–538 514–541 511–544 506–549
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 476 100% 464–485 461–490 456–492 452–497
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 422 100% 410–434 407–437 404–440 398–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 423 100% 410–434 407–437 404–440 399–446
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 393 100% 380–404 377–407 374–410 368–416
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 369 95% 357–382 354–386 351–388 346–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 339 6% 327–351 324–355 321–358 315–364
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 316 0% 305–329 302–332 299–335 293–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 317 0% 305–329 301–332 298–335 293–340
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 317 0% 305–328 302–332 298–335 292–341
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 263 0% 253–276 249–279 246–281 241–288
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 158 0% 149–169 146–172 143–174 139–179
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 159 0% 149–169 146–172 143–174 139–179

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 99.9%  
502 0% 99.9%  
503 0.1% 99.9%  
504 0.1% 99.8%  
505 0.1% 99.7%  
506 0.2% 99.6%  
507 0.2% 99.4%  
508 0.3% 99.2%  
509 0.3% 98.9%  
510 0.5% 98.6%  
511 0.7% 98%  
512 0.8% 97%  
513 1.1% 97%  
514 0.9% 96%  
515 2% 95%  
516 2% 93%  
517 2% 91%  
518 4% 89%  
519 2% 86%  
520 3% 83%  
521 3% 81%  
522 5% 78%  
523 5% 73%  
524 5% 69%  
525 4% 63%  
526 4% 60%  
527 5% 55% Median
528 4% 50%  
529 4% 46%  
530 7% 42%  
531 5% 35%  
532 3% 31%  
533 4% 28%  
534 3% 23%  
535 3% 20%  
536 4% 17%  
537 3% 14%  
538 2% 11%  
539 2% 9%  
540 1.5% 7%  
541 1.1% 6%  
542 1.2% 5%  
543 0.8% 3%  
544 0.8% 3%  
545 0.5% 2%  
546 0.3% 1.3%  
547 0.3% 1.0%  
548 0.2% 0.8%  
549 0.2% 0.5%  
550 0.1% 0.4%  
551 0.1% 0.3%  
552 0.1% 0.2%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0.1%  
559 0% 0.1%  
560 0% 0.1%  
561 0% 0.1%  
562 0% 0.1%  
563 0% 0.1%  
564 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 99.9%  
446 0% 99.9%  
447 0% 99.9%  
448 0% 99.9%  
449 0% 99.9%  
450 0.1% 99.8%  
451 0.1% 99.7%  
452 0.2% 99.6%  
453 0.2% 99.4%  
454 0.3% 99.2%  
455 0.7% 98.9%  
456 0.8% 98%  
457 0.7% 97%  
458 0.8% 97%  
459 0.5% 96%  
460 0.3% 95%  
461 0.4% 95%  
462 0.9% 95%  
463 2% 94%  
464 3% 92%  
465 4% 89%  
466 3% 85%  
467 3% 82%  
468 3% 80%  
469 4% 76%  
470 7% 72%  
471 4% 65%  
472 2% 61%  
473 1.5% 58%  
474 1.5% 57% Median
475 2% 55%  
476 5% 53%  
477 7% 48%  
478 8% 42%  
479 5% 34%  
480 5% 29%  
481 2% 25%  
482 5% 22%  
483 3% 17%  
484 2% 14%  
485 2% 12%  
486 1.4% 10%  
487 0.6% 8%  
488 0.6% 8%  
489 1.1% 7%  
490 1.3% 6%  
491 2% 5%  
492 1.3% 3%  
493 0.6% 2%  
494 0.3% 1.2%  
495 0.2% 0.9%  
496 0.2% 0.7%  
497 0.1% 0.6%  
498 0.1% 0.4%  
499 0.1% 0.3%  
500 0.1% 0.2%  
501 0% 0.2%  
502 0% 0.1%  
503 0% 0.1%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0.1% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0.2% 99.7%  
398 0.2% 99.6%  
399 0.1% 99.4%  
400 0.3% 99.3%  
401 0.3% 99.0%  
402 0.4% 98.6%  
403 0.6% 98%  
404 0.6% 98%  
405 0.9% 97%  
406 1.1% 96%  
407 1.1% 95%  
408 1.5% 94%  
409 2% 92%  
410 1.3% 91%  
411 2% 89%  
412 3% 87%  
413 2% 85%  
414 4% 82%  
415 4% 79%  
416 3% 74%  
417 4% 71%  
418 3% 67%  
419 4% 64%  
420 5% 60%  
421 4% 56% Median
422 5% 51%  
423 4% 47%  
424 3% 43%  
425 4% 40%  
426 5% 36%  
427 3% 31%  
428 4% 28%  
429 4% 24%  
430 3% 20%  
431 3% 17%  
432 2% 14%  
433 2% 12%  
434 2% 10%  
435 2% 8%  
436 1.3% 7%  
437 1.1% 6%  
438 0.9% 5%  
439 0.9% 4%  
440 0.5% 3%  
441 0.5% 2%  
442 0.4% 2%  
443 0.3% 1.3%  
444 0.2% 1.0%  
445 0.3% 0.8%  
446 0.1% 0.5%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 99.9%  
393 0% 99.9%  
394 0% 99.9%  
395 0.1% 99.9%  
396 0.1% 99.8%  
397 0.1% 99.7%  
398 0.1% 99.6%  
399 0.2% 99.5%  
400 0.2% 99.3%  
401 0.3% 99.1%  
402 0.4% 98.8%  
403 0.4% 98%  
404 0.7% 98%  
405 0.6% 97%  
406 1.0% 97%  
407 1.0% 96%  
408 1.1% 95%  
409 2% 94%  
410 2% 92%  
411 2% 90%  
412 3% 88%  
413 2% 85%  
414 3% 83%  
415 3% 80%  
416 4% 77%  
417 3% 73%  
418 4% 70%  
419 3% 66%  
420 4% 63%  
421 5% 59%  
422 4% 55% Median
423 4% 51%  
424 6% 47%  
425 4% 41%  
426 5% 37%  
427 4% 32%  
428 4% 28%  
429 3% 24%  
430 3% 21%  
431 3% 18%  
432 2% 16%  
433 2% 13%  
434 2% 11%  
435 2% 9%  
436 1.4% 8%  
437 1.4% 6%  
438 0.9% 5%  
439 0.7% 4%  
440 0.7% 3%  
441 0.5% 2%  
442 0.5% 2%  
443 0.5% 2%  
444 0.2% 1.0%  
445 0.2% 0.8%  
446 0.1% 0.6%  
447 0.1% 0.4%  
448 0.1% 0.3%  
449 0.1% 0.2%  
450 0% 0.2%  
451 0% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0.1%  
455 0% 0%  
456 0% 0%  
457 0% 0%  
458 0% 0%  
459 0% 0%  
460 0% 0%  
461 0% 0%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 99.9%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0.1% 99.9%  
365 0% 99.8%  
366 0.1% 99.8%  
367 0.2% 99.7%  
368 0.2% 99.6%  
369 0.2% 99.4%  
370 0.3% 99.2%  
371 0.4% 98.9%  
372 0.3% 98.6%  
373 0.4% 98%  
374 0.5% 98%  
375 1.0% 97%  
376 0.6% 96%  
377 1.4% 96%  
378 1.2% 94%  
379 2% 93%  
380 2% 91%  
381 2% 90%  
382 3% 88%  
383 3% 85%  
384 2% 82%  
385 3% 80%  
386 3% 77%  
387 4% 74%  
388 3% 70%  
389 5% 67%  
390 4% 62%  
391 4% 58% Median
392 4% 54%  
393 5% 50%  
394 4% 45%  
395 4% 41%  
396 4% 37%  
397 4% 33%  
398 4% 29%  
399 3% 26%  
400 3% 23%  
401 4% 20%  
402 3% 16%  
403 2% 13%  
404 2% 11%  
405 2% 9%  
406 1.2% 7%  
407 1.2% 6%  
408 0.8% 5%  
409 1.1% 4%  
410 0.6% 3%  
411 0.4% 2%  
412 0.3% 2%  
413 0.4% 2%  
414 0.3% 1.1%  
415 0.2% 0.8%  
416 0.1% 0.6%  
417 0.2% 0.5%  
418 0.1% 0.3%  
419 0.1% 0.2%  
420 0% 0.2% Last Result
421 0% 0.1%  
422 0% 0.1%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 99.9%  
341 0% 99.9%  
342 0.1% 99.9%  
343 0.1% 99.8%  
344 0.1% 99.8%  
345 0.1% 99.7%  
346 0.2% 99.5%  
347 0.2% 99.3%  
348 0.3% 99.1%  
349 0.3% 98.9%  
350 0.5% 98.5%  
351 0.7% 98%  
352 0.6% 97%  
353 0.5% 97%  
354 2% 96%  
355 1.0% 95% Majority
356 1.2% 94%  
357 3% 92%  
358 2% 90%  
359 2% 88%  
360 3% 85%  
361 4% 83%  
362 3% 79%  
363 3% 76%  
364 4% 73%  
365 4% 69%  
366 4% 65%  
367 3% 61%  
368 6% 58%  
369 3% 52% Median
370 5% 49%  
371 4% 44%  
372 4% 40%  
373 4% 36%  
374 3% 31%  
375 3% 29%  
376 4% 26%  
377 3% 22%  
378 3% 20%  
379 3% 17%  
380 2% 14%  
381 1.2% 12%  
382 2% 11%  
383 2% 9%  
384 1.2% 7%  
385 0.8% 6%  
386 1.3% 5%  
387 0.7% 4%  
388 0.7% 3%  
389 0.6% 2%  
390 0.4% 2%  
391 0.4% 1.4%  
392 0.2% 1.0%  
393 0.2% 0.8%  
394 0.2% 0.6%  
395 0.1% 0.4%  
396 0.1% 0.3%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1% Last Result
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0.1%  
402 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
309 0% 100%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0% 99.9%  
312 0% 99.9%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.1% 99.7%  
315 0.2% 99.6%  
316 0.1% 99.5%  
317 0.2% 99.3%  
318 0.3% 99.1%  
319 0.3% 98.8%  
320 0.7% 98.5%  
321 0.4% 98%  
322 1.3% 97%  
323 0.5% 96%  
324 1.4% 96%  
325 1.1% 94%  
326 2% 93%  
327 1.5% 91%  
328 3% 90%  
329 2% 87%  
330 2% 85%  
331 5% 83%  
332 1.4% 78%  
333 5% 77%  
334 2% 72%  
335 4% 70%  
336 3% 65%  
337 4% 62%  
338 5% 58% Median
339 3% 53%  
340 5% 50% Last Result
341 3% 45%  
342 5% 42%  
343 2% 36%  
344 6% 34%  
345 2% 28%  
346 4% 26%  
347 3% 22%  
348 2% 19%  
349 4% 17%  
350 2% 14%  
351 2% 12%  
352 1.0% 10%  
353 2% 9%  
354 0.9% 6%  
355 1.1% 6% Majority
356 0.8% 4%  
357 1.0% 4%  
358 0.4% 3%  
359 0.6% 2%  
360 0.3% 2%  
361 0.2% 1.3%  
362 0.4% 1.1%  
363 0.1% 0.7%  
364 0.2% 0.6%  
365 0.1% 0.4%  
366 0.1% 0.3%  
367 0.1% 0.2%  
368 0% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9% Last Result
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.8%  
292 0.2% 99.7%  
293 0.1% 99.5%  
294 0.2% 99.4%  
295 0.3% 99.2%  
296 0.4% 98.9%  
297 0.3% 98%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.6% 98%  
300 1.1% 97%  
301 0.8% 96%  
302 1.2% 95%  
303 1.2% 94%  
304 2% 93%  
305 2% 91%  
306 2% 89%  
307 3% 87%  
308 4% 84%  
309 3% 80%  
310 3% 77%  
311 4% 74%  
312 4% 71%  
313 4% 67%  
314 4% 63%  
315 4% 59%  
316 5% 55%  
317 4% 50% Median
318 4% 46%  
319 4% 42%  
320 5% 38%  
321 3% 33%  
322 4% 30%  
323 3% 26%  
324 3% 23%  
325 2% 20%  
326 3% 18%  
327 3% 15%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 2% 9%  
331 1.2% 7%  
332 1.4% 6%  
333 0.6% 4%  
334 1.0% 4%  
335 0.5% 3%  
336 0.4% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.4%  
339 0.3% 1.1%  
340 0.2% 0.8%  
341 0.2% 0.6%  
342 0.2% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0% 0.2%  
345 0.1% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.5%  
294 0.2% 99.3%  
295 0.3% 99.1%  
296 0.4% 98.9%  
297 0.4% 98%  
298 0.7% 98%  
299 0.7% 97%  
300 0.9% 97% Last Result
301 1.4% 96%  
302 0.8% 94%  
303 2% 94%  
304 1.4% 92%  
305 2% 91%  
306 2% 88%  
307 2% 86%  
308 3% 84%  
309 3% 81%  
310 3% 78%  
311 3% 75%  
312 5% 72%  
313 2% 68%  
314 4% 65%  
315 4% 61%  
316 5% 57%  
317 5% 52% Median
318 3% 47%  
319 5% 44%  
320 4% 39%  
321 4% 36%  
322 4% 32%  
323 3% 28%  
324 4% 25%  
325 4% 21%  
326 2% 18%  
327 3% 15%  
328 2% 13%  
329 2% 10%  
330 2% 9%  
331 1.3% 7%  
332 1.3% 6%  
333 1.1% 4%  
334 0.5% 3%  
335 0.9% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.3% 2%  
338 0.3% 1.2%  
339 0.3% 1.0%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.9%  
290 0.1% 99.8%  
291 0.1% 99.7%  
292 0.1% 99.6%  
293 0.2% 99.5%  
294 0.3% 99.3%  
295 0.3% 99.0%  
296 0.4% 98.8%  
297 0.5% 98%  
298 0.4% 98%  
299 0.7% 97%  
300 0.8% 97%  
301 0.9% 96%  
302 1.2% 95%  
303 2% 94%  
304 2% 92%  
305 2% 90%  
306 3% 89%  
307 2% 85%  
308 3% 83%  
309 3% 80%  
310 3% 77%  
311 3% 74%  
312 4% 71%  
313 3% 67%  
314 4% 64%  
315 4% 60%  
316 3% 56% Median
317 5% 53%  
318 5% 48%  
319 4% 43%  
320 4% 39%  
321 4% 35%  
322 5% 31%  
323 3% 25%  
324 3% 22%  
325 3% 19%  
326 3% 17% Last Result
327 2% 14%  
328 2% 12%  
329 2% 10%  
330 1.3% 8%  
331 1.1% 7%  
332 1.3% 6%  
333 0.7% 5%  
334 1.0% 4%  
335 0.7% 3%  
336 0.5% 2%  
337 0.4% 2%  
338 0.4% 1.4%  
339 0.3% 0.9%  
340 0.2% 0.7%  
341 0.1% 0.5%  
342 0.1% 0.4%  
343 0.1% 0.3%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0.1%  
349 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 100%  
235 0% 100%  
236 0% 99.9%  
237 0.1% 99.9%  
238 0.1% 99.8%  
239 0.1% 99.7%  
240 0.1% 99.6%  
241 0.1% 99.5%  
242 0.2% 99.5%  
243 0.2% 99.3%  
244 0.5% 99.1%  
245 0.6% 98.6%  
246 0.8% 98%  
247 1.0% 97%  
248 0.8% 96%  
249 0.6% 95%  
250 0.7% 95%  
251 1.2% 94%  
252 2% 93%  
253 3% 91%  
254 3% 87%  
255 5% 84%  
256 3% 80%  
257 2% 77%  
258 2% 75%  
259 3% 73%  
260 4% 71%  
261 6% 67%  
262 6% 61%  
263 7% 55%  
264 4% 48% Median
265 4% 44%  
266 2% 40%  
267 3% 39%  
268 3% 36%  
269 4% 33%  
270 5% 29%  
271 5% 24%  
272 4% 19%  
273 2% 15%  
274 1.1% 13%  
275 1.0% 12%  
276 2% 11%  
277 2% 9%  
278 2% 8%  
279 2% 6%  
280 1.3% 4%  
281 0.8% 3%  
282 0.3% 2%  
283 0.2% 2%  
284 0.2% 2%  
285 0.4% 2%  
286 0.3% 1.1%  
287 0.3% 0.8%  
288 0.3% 0.6%  
289 0.1% 0.3%  
290 0.1% 0.2%  
291 0% 0.2%  
292 0% 0.1%  
293 0% 0.1%  
294 0% 0.1%  
295 0% 0.1%  
296 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.7%  
139 0.1% 99.6%  
140 0.3% 99.4%  
141 0.5% 99.1%  
142 0.5% 98.6%  
143 0.7% 98%  
144 0.7% 97%  
145 1.3% 97%  
146 1.4% 95%  
147 2% 94%  
148 2% 92%  
149 2% 90%  
150 3% 88%  
151 4% 85%  
152 3% 81%  
153 6% 78%  
154 4% 72%  
155 5% 68%  
156 4% 64%  
157 5% 60%  
158 6% 54%  
159 4% 49% Median
160 5% 44%  
161 5% 39%  
162 4% 34%  
163 5% 31%  
164 4% 26%  
165 3% 22%  
166 3% 19%  
167 3% 16%  
168 2% 12%  
169 2% 10%  
170 2% 8%  
171 1.3% 6%  
172 1.0% 5%  
173 0.9% 4%  
174 0.8% 3%  
175 0.7% 2%  
176 0.5% 2%  
177 0.2% 1.1%  
178 0.2% 0.9%  
179 0.2% 0.7%  
180 0.1% 0.5%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
132 0% 100%  
133 0% 99.9%  
134 0% 99.9%  
135 0% 99.9%  
136 0.1% 99.9%  
137 0.1% 99.8%  
138 0.2% 99.7%  
139 0.2% 99.6%  
140 0.3% 99.4%  
141 0.4% 99.1%  
142 0.5% 98.7%  
143 0.9% 98%  
144 0.6% 97%  
145 1.3% 97%  
146 1.0% 95%  
147 2% 94%  
148 2% 93%  
149 3% 91%  
150 2% 88%  
151 4% 86%  
152 3% 82%  
153 4% 79%  
154 6% 75%  
155 5% 70%  
156 6% 65%  
157 4% 59%  
158 4% 55%  
159 5% 51% Median
160 5% 46%  
161 4% 40%  
162 4% 36%  
163 4% 32%  
164 5% 28%  
165 3% 23%  
166 4% 20%  
167 3% 16%  
168 2% 13%  
169 2% 11%  
170 2% 9%  
171 2% 7%  
172 1.1% 5%  
173 1.0% 4%  
174 0.7% 3%  
175 0.7% 2%  
176 0.4% 2%  
177 0.4% 1.2%  
178 0.2% 0.8%  
179 0.2% 0.6%  
180 0.1% 0.4%  
181 0.1% 0.3%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0.1%  
186 0% 0.1%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations