Opinion Poll by Forsa, 4–8 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.3% 28.0–30.6% 27.6–31.0% 27.3–31.3% 26.7–32.0%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 20.0% 18.9–21.2% 18.5–21.5% 18.3–21.8% 17.7–22.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 14.0% 13.0–15.1% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.6% 12.1–16.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.0–9.1% 6.9–9.3% 6.5–9.7%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.7% 6.1–7.5% 5.9–7.7% 5.7–7.9% 5.4–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 223 213–233 210–236 208–238 203–243
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 153 144–160 142–163 140–166 135–170
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 107 99–114 97–117 96–118 92–122
Alternative für Deutschland 94 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–74
Die Linke 69 61 55–67 54–69 52–70 50–74
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–59 46–61 45–62 43–65
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 46–57 45–59 43–60 41–63

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0% 99.9%  
200 0% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.9%  
202 0.1% 99.8%  
203 0.2% 99.6%  
204 0.2% 99.5%  
205 0.3% 99.3%  
206 0.4% 99.0%  
207 0.6% 98.6%  
208 0.6% 98%  
209 1.1% 97%  
210 1.3% 96%  
211 1.5% 95%  
212 2% 93%  
213 2% 91%  
214 3% 89%  
215 4% 86%  
216 3% 82%  
217 3% 79%  
218 5% 75%  
219 5% 70%  
220 4% 65%  
221 4% 61%  
222 5% 57%  
223 5% 52% Median
224 5% 47%  
225 4% 42%  
226 5% 37%  
227 5% 33%  
228 3% 28%  
229 4% 24%  
230 4% 20%  
231 3% 16%  
232 2% 13%  
233 2% 11%  
234 2% 8%  
235 2% 7%  
236 2% 5%  
237 0.8% 4%  
238 0.7% 3%  
239 0.7% 2%  
240 0.4% 1.4%  
241 0.2% 1.0%  
242 0.2% 0.8%  
243 0.2% 0.6%  
244 0.1% 0.4%  
245 0.1% 0.3%  
246 0.1% 0.2%  
247 0% 0.1%  
248 0% 0.1%  
249 0% 0.1%  
250 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 100%  
123 0% 100%  
124 0% 100%  
125 0% 100%  
126 0% 100%  
127 0% 100%  
128 0% 100%  
129 0% 100%  
130 0% 100%  
131 0% 100%  
132 0.1% 99.9%  
133 0.1% 99.8%  
134 0.1% 99.7%  
135 0.3% 99.6%  
136 0.3% 99.3%  
137 0.3% 99.0%  
138 0.5% 98.7%  
139 0.6% 98%  
140 0.8% 98%  
141 1.2% 97%  
142 2% 96%  
143 3% 93%  
144 3% 91%  
145 5% 87%  
146 5% 83%  
147 5% 78%  
148 6% 73%  
149 4% 67%  
150 4% 63%  
151 5% 58%  
152 3% 54%  
153 5% 51% Median
154 5% 45%  
155 5% 40%  
156 8% 35%  
157 5% 27%  
158 5% 22%  
159 4% 17%  
160 4% 13%  
161 2% 9%  
162 2% 7%  
163 1.1% 5%  
164 0.7% 4%  
165 0.9% 4%  
166 0.5% 3%  
167 0.5% 2%  
168 0.6% 2%  
169 0.4% 1.1%  
170 0.3% 0.7%  
171 0.2% 0.5%  
172 0.1% 0.3%  
173 0.1% 0.2%  
174 0% 0.1%  
175 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.7%  
93 0.4% 99.4%  
94 0.6% 99.0%  
95 0.6% 98%  
96 1.3% 98%  
97 2% 96%  
98 3% 95%  
99 3% 92%  
100 3% 89%  
101 4% 86%  
102 5% 82%  
103 8% 77%  
104 5% 70%  
105 5% 64%  
106 7% 59%  
107 8% 52% Median
108 7% 45%  
109 6% 37%  
110 4% 31%  
111 6% 27%  
112 6% 22%  
113 4% 16%  
114 2% 12%  
115 2% 10%  
116 2% 8%  
117 2% 5%  
118 1.2% 4%  
119 0.6% 2%  
120 0.5% 2%  
121 0.5% 1.3%  
122 0.4% 0.8%  
123 0.2% 0.4%  
124 0.1% 0.3%  
125 0.1% 0.2%  
126 0.1% 0.1%  
127 0% 0.1%  
128 0% 0%  
129 0% 0%  
130 0% 0%  
131 0% 0%  
132 0% 0%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.8% 99.2%  
52 1.1% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 4% 88%  
57 7% 84%  
58 7% 77%  
59 9% 70%  
60 7% 62%  
61 8% 55% Median
62 9% 47%  
63 8% 38%  
64 8% 30%  
65 5% 22%  
66 5% 17%  
67 4% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.5% 4%  
71 0.7% 2%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.6%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0%  
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.1% 98.6%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 89%  
57 5% 84%  
58 8% 79%  
59 8% 71%  
60 9% 63%  
61 8% 53% Median
62 8% 46%  
63 7% 37%  
64 7% 30%  
65 6% 23%  
66 5% 17%  
67 3% 12%  
68 3% 9%  
69 2% 6% Last Result
70 2% 4%  
71 0.9% 2%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.4% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.5% 99.6%  
44 0.7% 99.1%  
45 1.4% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 2% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 6% 88%  
50 6% 81%  
51 9% 75%  
52 9% 66%  
53 10% 57% Median
54 9% 48%  
55 9% 39%  
56 6% 30%  
57 6% 23%  
58 5% 17%  
59 4% 12%  
60 2% 8%  
61 2% 6%  
62 1.5% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.3%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.7% 99.3%  
43 1.2% 98.6%  
44 2% 97%  
45 3% 96%  
46 4% 93% Last Result
47 5% 89%  
48 8% 83%  
49 10% 76%  
50 8% 66%  
51 9% 58% Median
52 12% 49%  
53 8% 38%  
54 7% 30%  
55 6% 23%  
56 5% 17%  
57 4% 12%  
58 3% 9%  
59 2% 6%  
60 1.2% 4%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.6% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 534 100% 524–542 522–545 520–547 515–551
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 480 100% 470–490 467–492 465–495 460–500
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 434 100% 424–445 422–447 419–450 414–455
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 427 100% 416–437 413–440 411–442 406–447
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 379–399 376–402 373–405 367–410
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 99.9% 371–392 368–395 365–397 360–402
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 335 1.0% 325–346 322–349 320–352 314–357
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 328 0.1% 317–338 315–341 312–344 307–349
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 310–330 307–333 304–336 299–342
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 312 0% 302–323 299–326 296–328 291–333
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 249–269 246–272 243–275 239–279
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 168 0% 159–177 156–180 154–182 150–186
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 160 0% 152–169 149–172 147–174 143–178

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 100%  
500 0% 100%  
501 0% 100%  
502 0% 100%  
503 0% 100%  
504 0% 100%  
505 0% 100%  
506 0% 100%  
507 0% 100%  
508 0% 100%  
509 0% 100%  
510 0% 99.9%  
511 0% 99.9%  
512 0% 99.9%  
513 0.1% 99.8%  
514 0.2% 99.7%  
515 0.3% 99.5%  
516 0.4% 99.3%  
517 0.2% 98.9%  
518 0.3% 98.7%  
519 0.7% 98%  
520 1.1% 98%  
521 1.2% 97%  
522 2% 95%  
523 3% 93%  
524 1.5% 91%  
525 2% 89%  
526 3% 87%  
527 3% 84%  
528 5% 81%  
529 7% 76%  
530 5% 69%  
531 4% 65%  
532 6% 60%  
533 4% 55%  
534 3% 51% Median
535 8% 47%  
536 8% 39%  
537 4% 32%  
538 5% 27%  
539 3% 22%  
540 2% 19%  
541 4% 17%  
542 3% 13%  
543 2% 10%  
544 2% 8%  
545 2% 5%  
546 0.7% 4%  
547 0.5% 3%  
548 0.7% 2%  
549 0.5% 2%  
550 0.4% 1.1%  
551 0.3% 0.7%  
552 0.2% 0.5%  
553 0.1% 0.2%  
554 0% 0.2%  
555 0% 0.1%  
556 0% 0.1%  
557 0% 0.1%  
558 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 100%  
438 0% 100%  
439 0% 100%  
440 0% 100%  
441 0% 100%  
442 0% 100%  
443 0% 100%  
444 0% 100%  
445 0% 100%  
446 0% 100%  
447 0% 100%  
448 0% 100%  
449 0% 100%  
450 0% 100%  
451 0% 100%  
452 0% 100%  
453 0% 100%  
454 0% 100%  
455 0% 99.9%  
456 0.1% 99.9%  
457 0.1% 99.9%  
458 0.1% 99.8%  
459 0.1% 99.7%  
460 0.2% 99.6%  
461 0.3% 99.4%  
462 0.4% 99.1%  
463 0.4% 98.8%  
464 0.8% 98%  
465 0.7% 98%  
466 0.8% 97%  
467 1.2% 96%  
468 2% 95%  
469 2% 93%  
470 2% 91%  
471 3% 89%  
472 3% 86%  
473 4% 83%  
474 5% 80%  
475 4% 75%  
476 4% 71%  
477 4% 67%  
478 4% 62%  
479 5% 58%  
480 5% 53% Median
481 6% 48%  
482 4% 42%  
483 5% 39%  
484 4% 33%  
485 5% 29%  
486 4% 23%  
487 3% 20%  
488 4% 17%  
489 2% 13%  
490 3% 11%  
491 2% 8%  
492 2% 7%  
493 1.2% 5%  
494 0.8% 4%  
495 0.9% 3%  
496 0.6% 2%  
497 0.5% 2%  
498 0.3% 1.0%  
499 0.2% 0.7%  
500 0.2% 0.5%  
501 0.1% 0.3%  
502 0.1% 0.2%  
503 0.1% 0.2%  
504 0% 0.1%  
505 0% 0.1%  
506 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 99.9%  
410 0.1% 99.9%  
411 0.1% 99.8%  
412 0.1% 99.7%  
413 0.1% 99.7%  
414 0.2% 99.5%  
415 0.3% 99.4%  
416 0.3% 99.1%  
417 0.5% 98.8%  
418 0.7% 98%  
419 0.6% 98%  
420 0.7% 97%  
421 0.8% 96%  
422 2% 95%  
423 2% 94%  
424 2% 92%  
425 2% 90%  
426 3% 87%  
427 4% 85%  
428 3% 81%  
429 5% 78%  
430 4% 73%  
431 5% 69%  
432 5% 64%  
433 4% 59%  
434 5% 55% Median
435 4% 50%  
436 5% 45%  
437 4% 41%  
438 4% 37%  
439 5% 33%  
440 3% 27%  
441 4% 24%  
442 4% 20%  
443 3% 17%  
444 3% 13%  
445 2% 10%  
446 2% 9%  
447 1.3% 6%  
448 1.2% 5%  
449 0.7% 4%  
450 0.8% 3%  
451 0.6% 2%  
452 0.4% 2%  
453 0.4% 1.2%  
454 0.2% 0.8%  
455 0.2% 0.6%  
456 0.1% 0.4%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0.1% 0.2%  
459 0% 0.1%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 100%  
385 0% 100%  
386 0% 100%  
387 0% 100%  
388 0% 100%  
389 0% 100%  
390 0% 100%  
391 0% 100%  
392 0% 100%  
393 0% 100%  
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 99.9%  
401 0% 99.9%  
402 0.1% 99.9%  
403 0.1% 99.8%  
404 0.1% 99.8%  
405 0.2% 99.7%  
406 0.1% 99.5%  
407 0.3% 99.4%  
408 0.4% 99.1%  
409 0.4% 98.7%  
410 0.6% 98%  
411 0.9% 98%  
412 1.2% 97%  
413 0.9% 96%  
414 1.3% 95%  
415 2% 93%  
416 2% 92%  
417 2% 89%  
418 3% 87%  
419 3% 84%  
420 4% 80%  
421 3% 77%  
422 5% 73%  
423 4% 69%  
424 6% 65%  
425 4% 59%  
426 5% 55%  
427 5% 50% Median
428 4% 45%  
429 4% 42%  
430 5% 38%  
431 4% 32%  
432 5% 28%  
433 4% 23%  
434 3% 19%  
435 3% 16%  
436 2% 13%  
437 2% 11%  
438 2% 9%  
439 2% 7%  
440 1.1% 5%  
441 1.1% 4%  
442 0.9% 3%  
443 0.6% 2%  
444 0.4% 2%  
445 0.4% 1.2%  
446 0.3% 0.9%  
447 0.2% 0.6%  
448 0.1% 0.4%  
449 0.1% 0.3%  
450 0.1% 0.2%  
451 0.1% 0.1%  
452 0% 0.1%  
453 0% 0.1%  
454 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 99.9%  
364 0% 99.9%  
365 0.1% 99.8%  
366 0.2% 99.8%  
367 0.1% 99.6%  
368 0.2% 99.5%  
369 0.2% 99.3%  
370 0.3% 99.1%  
371 0.4% 98.8%  
372 0.7% 98%  
373 0.6% 98%  
374 1.0% 97%  
375 1.1% 96%  
376 1.3% 95%  
377 2% 94%  
378 1.5% 92%  
379 3% 90%  
380 2% 87%  
381 3% 85%  
382 4% 82%  
383 5% 79%  
384 3% 73%  
385 5% 70%  
386 6% 64%  
387 3% 59%  
388 5% 56% Median
389 5% 51%  
390 4% 46%  
391 5% 42%  
392 3% 37%  
393 4% 34%  
394 6% 30%  
395 3% 24%  
396 2% 22%  
397 4% 19%  
398 2% 15%  
399 3% 13%  
400 2% 10%  
401 1.5% 8%  
402 1.4% 6%  
403 1.2% 5%  
404 0.7% 3%  
405 0.8% 3%  
406 0.5% 2%  
407 0.3% 1.5%  
408 0.3% 1.1%  
409 0.2% 0.9%  
410 0.2% 0.6%  
411 0.1% 0.4%  
412 0.1% 0.3%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0.1% 0.2%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0.1%  
417 0% 0%  
418 0% 0%  
419 0% 0%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 99.9% Majority
356 0% 99.9%  
357 0.1% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.8%  
359 0.1% 99.7%  
360 0.1% 99.6%  
361 0.3% 99.5%  
362 0.3% 99.2%  
363 0.3% 98.9%  
364 0.5% 98.5%  
365 0.6% 98%  
366 0.9% 97%  
367 1.2% 96%  
368 1.1% 95%  
369 2% 94%  
370 2% 92%  
371 3% 90%  
372 2% 88%  
373 3% 86%  
374 4% 82%  
375 3% 79%  
376 4% 76%  
377 4% 72%  
378 6% 68%  
379 4% 62%  
380 5% 58%  
381 5% 53% Median
382 4% 48%  
383 4% 44%  
384 5% 40%  
385 4% 34%  
386 4% 30%  
387 3% 25%  
388 3% 22%  
389 3% 19%  
390 4% 16%  
391 2% 12%  
392 2% 10%  
393 2% 9%  
394 1.1% 6%  
395 1.0% 5%  
396 0.9% 4%  
397 0.7% 3%  
398 0.7% 2%  
399 0.4% 2% Last Result
400 0.3% 1.3%  
401 0.4% 1.0%  
402 0.2% 0.6%  
403 0.1% 0.4%  
404 0.1% 0.3%  
405 0.1% 0.2%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
308 0% 100%  
309 0% 99.9%  
310 0% 99.9%  
311 0.1% 99.9%  
312 0.1% 99.8%  
313 0.1% 99.8%  
314 0.2% 99.6%  
315 0.2% 99.5%  
316 0.3% 99.2%  
317 0.4% 98.9%  
318 0.5% 98.6%  
319 0.5% 98%  
320 0.9% 98%  
321 1.3% 97%  
322 1.1% 95%  
323 1.1% 94%  
324 2% 93%  
325 3% 91%  
326 2% 88%  
327 2% 86%  
328 3% 84%  
329 4% 81%  
330 4% 77%  
331 3% 73%  
332 6% 69%  
333 5% 63%  
334 5% 58%  
335 4% 54% Median
336 5% 50%  
337 6% 45%  
338 5% 39%  
339 3% 35%  
340 5% 31% Last Result
341 4% 27%  
342 3% 23%  
343 3% 20%  
344 3% 17%  
345 3% 14%  
346 2% 11%  
347 2% 9%  
348 1.4% 7%  
349 1.3% 6%  
350 1.1% 4%  
351 0.7% 3%  
352 0.5% 3%  
353 0.5% 2%  
354 0.5% 2%  
355 0.2% 1.0% Majority
356 0.2% 0.8%  
357 0.2% 0.6%  
358 0.1% 0.3%  
359 0.1% 0.3%  
360 0.1% 0.2%  
361 0.1% 0.1%  
362 0% 0.1%  
363 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
301 0% 100%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.9%  
305 0.1% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.3%  
309 0.4% 99.1%  
310 0.4% 98.7%  
311 0.6% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 0.9% 97%  
314 1.0% 96%  
315 2% 95%  
316 2% 94%  
317 2% 92%  
318 2% 90%  
319 3% 87%  
320 4% 84%  
321 4% 80%  
322 4% 76%  
323 3% 72%  
324 5% 69%  
325 4% 64%  
326 5% 60% Last Result
327 5% 55% Median
328 4% 50%  
329 4% 46%  
330 5% 42%  
331 3% 37%  
332 4% 34%  
333 4% 29%  
334 4% 26%  
335 2% 21%  
336 3% 19%  
337 4% 16%  
338 3% 12%  
339 2% 9%  
340 2% 7%  
341 1.1% 5%  
342 0.9% 4%  
343 0.8% 3%  
344 0.7% 3%  
345 0.4% 2%  
346 0.4% 1.5%  
347 0.3% 1.1%  
348 0.2% 0.8%  
349 0.2% 0.6%  
350 0.2% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.3%  
352 0.1% 0.2%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 100%  
292 0% 100%  
293 0% 100%  
294 0% 99.9%  
295 0.1% 99.9%  
296 0.1% 99.8%  
297 0.1% 99.8%  
298 0.1% 99.7%  
299 0.2% 99.6%  
300 0.2% 99.4%  
301 0.3% 99.1%  
302 0.3% 98.9%  
303 0.5% 98.5%  
304 0.8% 98%  
305 0.7% 97%  
306 1.2% 97%  
307 1.4% 95%  
308 1.5% 94%  
309 2% 92%  
310 3% 90%  
311 2% 87%  
312 4% 85%  
313 2% 81%  
314 3% 78%  
315 6% 76%  
316 4% 70%  
317 3% 66%  
318 5% 63%  
319 4% 58%  
320 5% 54%  
321 5% 49% Median
322 3% 44%  
323 6% 41%  
324 5% 36%  
325 3% 30%  
326 5% 27%  
327 4% 21%  
328 3% 18%  
329 2% 15%  
330 3% 13%  
331 1.5% 10%  
332 2% 8%  
333 1.3% 6%  
334 1.1% 5%  
335 1.0% 4%  
336 0.6% 3%  
337 0.7% 2%  
338 0.4% 2%  
339 0.3% 1.2%  
340 0.2% 0.9%  
341 0.2% 0.7%  
342 0.1% 0.5%  
343 0.2% 0.4%  
344 0.1% 0.2%  
345 0% 0.2%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0.1%  
348 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.9%  
289 0.1% 99.8%  
290 0.1% 99.7%  
291 0.2% 99.6%  
292 0.2% 99.5%  
293 0.2% 99.3%  
294 0.4% 99.0%  
295 0.5% 98.6%  
296 0.7% 98%  
297 0.8% 97%  
298 1.1% 97%  
299 1.3% 96%  
300 2% 94% Last Result
301 2% 93%  
302 2% 91%  
303 3% 89%  
304 3% 86%  
305 3% 83%  
306 4% 80%  
307 3% 76%  
308 4% 73%  
309 5% 69%  
310 5% 64%  
311 5% 60%  
312 5% 54%  
313 5% 50% Median
314 5% 45%  
315 4% 40%  
316 4% 36%  
317 5% 32%  
318 4% 27%  
319 4% 23%  
320 4% 19%  
321 3% 16%  
322 2% 13%  
323 2% 11%  
324 2% 9%  
325 2% 7%  
326 1.0% 5%  
327 1.0% 4%  
328 0.9% 3%  
329 0.6% 2%  
330 0.5% 2%  
331 0.4% 1.3%  
332 0.3% 1.0%  
333 0.2% 0.7%  
334 0.1% 0.5%  
335 0.1% 0.4%  
336 0.1% 0.2%  
337 0.1% 0.2%  
338 0% 0.1%  
339 0% 0.1%  
340 0% 0.1%  
341 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 100%  
232 0% 100%  
233 0% 100%  
234 0% 99.9%  
235 0.1% 99.9%  
236 0.1% 99.8%  
237 0.1% 99.8%  
238 0.1% 99.7%  
239 0.1% 99.6%  
240 0.3% 99.5%  
241 0.4% 99.2%  
242 0.6% 98.8%  
243 0.7% 98%  
244 1.0% 97%  
245 0.8% 96%  
246 0.8% 96%  
247 1.3% 95%  
248 1.3% 93%  
249 3% 92%  
250 4% 89%  
251 4% 85%  
252 5% 81%  
253 3% 76%  
254 3% 73%  
255 2% 70%  
256 4% 68%  
257 4% 64%  
258 6% 60%  
259 7% 54%  
260 5% 47% Median
261 6% 42%  
262 4% 36%  
263 2% 32%  
264 3% 30%  
265 4% 27%  
266 5% 23%  
267 5% 19%  
268 3% 14%  
269 3% 11%  
270 1.0% 7%  
271 1.3% 6%  
272 0.6% 5%  
273 0.8% 5%  
274 0.8% 4%  
275 0.7% 3%  
276 0.8% 2%  
277 0.5% 1.4%  
278 0.3% 0.9%  
279 0.2% 0.6%  
280 0.1% 0.4%  
281 0.1% 0.4%  
282 0.1% 0.3%  
283 0.1% 0.2%  
284 0.1% 0.1%  
285 0% 0.1%  
286 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0.1% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.3% 99.5%  
152 0.5% 99.2%  
153 0.5% 98.7%  
154 0.9% 98%  
155 1.1% 97%  
156 1.1% 96%  
157 2% 95%  
158 2% 93%  
159 2% 91%  
160 3% 89%  
161 3% 86%  
162 6% 83%  
163 4% 77%  
164 4% 73%  
165 6% 69%  
166 5% 63%  
167 6% 58%  
168 6% 52% Median
169 5% 46%  
170 5% 41%  
171 6% 36%  
172 4% 31%  
173 5% 26%  
174 3% 21%  
175 4% 18%  
176 3% 14%  
177 2% 11%  
178 2% 9%  
179 2% 7%  
180 1.5% 5%  
181 1.0% 4%  
182 0.7% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.5% 1.5%  
185 0.3% 1.0%  
186 0.3% 0.7%  
187 0.2% 0.5%  
188 0.1% 0.3%  
189 0.1% 0.2%  
190 0.1% 0.1%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
138 0% 100%  
139 0% 99.9%  
140 0.1% 99.9%  
141 0.1% 99.8%  
142 0.1% 99.7%  
143 0.3% 99.6%  
144 0.4% 99.4%  
145 0.5% 99.0%  
146 0.8% 98.5%  
147 0.7% 98%  
148 1.0% 97%  
149 2% 96%  
150 2% 94%  
151 3% 93%  
152 3% 90%  
153 3% 87%  
154 5% 84%  
155 4% 79%  
156 5% 75%  
157 6% 70%  
158 5% 64%  
159 5% 59%  
160 7% 54% Median
161 5% 47%  
162 5% 42%  
163 6% 37%  
164 5% 31%  
165 5% 27%  
166 4% 22%  
167 3% 17%  
168 3% 15%  
169 3% 12%  
170 2% 9%  
171 2% 7%  
172 1.2% 5%  
173 1.0% 4%  
174 0.7% 3%  
175 0.5% 2%  
176 0.6% 2%  
177 0.2% 1.0%  
178 0.3% 0.7%  
179 0.2% 0.5%  
180 0.1% 0.3%  
181 0.1% 0.2%  
182 0.1% 0.2%  
183 0% 0.1%  
184 0% 0.1%  
185 0% 0%  
186 0% 0%  
187 0% 0%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations