Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 8–11 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.8–29.3% 26.4–29.7% 26.1–30.0% 25.5–30.6%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 17.0–19.2% 16.7–19.5% 16.4–19.8% 15.9–20.3%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.0% 13.7–16.3% 13.5–16.6% 13.0–17.1%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.2–10.9% 8.9–11.2% 8.8–11.4% 8.4–11.8%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 6.9–9.3% 6.6–9.6%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.5% 6.8–8.3% 6.6–8.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 210 200–220 198–222 195–225 191–229
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 127–144 125–146 123–148 119–152
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 105–120 103–122 101–124 98–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 75 69–81 67–84 66–85 63–89
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 52–68 51–69 49–72
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 60 55–66 53–68 51–69 49–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 56 51–62 50–64 49–65 46–68

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
186 0% 100%  
187 0% 99.9%  
188 0.1% 99.9%  
189 0.1% 99.8%  
190 0.1% 99.8%  
191 0.2% 99.6%  
192 0.2% 99.4%  
193 0.4% 99.2%  
194 0.6% 98.9%  
195 0.8% 98%  
196 1.1% 97%  
197 1.4% 96%  
198 1.2% 95%  
199 2% 94%  
200 2% 92% Last Result
201 3% 89%  
202 3% 86%  
203 4% 84%  
204 4% 80%  
205 4% 76%  
206 6% 72%  
207 5% 66%  
208 5% 61%  
209 6% 56%  
210 5% 51% Median
211 6% 46%  
212 5% 39%  
213 4% 34%  
214 4% 30%  
215 4% 26%  
216 3% 22%  
217 4% 19%  
218 2% 15%  
219 2% 13%  
220 2% 10%  
221 2% 8%  
222 2% 6%  
223 0.9% 4%  
224 0.9% 3%  
225 0.8% 3%  
226 0.5% 2%  
227 0.4% 1.3%  
228 0.3% 0.9%  
229 0.2% 0.6%  
230 0.1% 0.4%  
231 0.1% 0.3%  
232 0.1% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0.1% 99.9%  
117 0.1% 99.9%  
118 0.2% 99.8%  
119 0.2% 99.6%  
120 0.4% 99.4%  
121 0.4% 99.0%  
122 0.7% 98.6%  
123 0.9% 98%  
124 1.2% 97%  
125 2% 96%  
126 3% 94%  
127 3% 92%  
128 3% 89%  
129 5% 86%  
130 4% 81%  
131 6% 77%  
132 5% 71%  
133 5% 66%  
134 7% 62%  
135 6% 54% Median
136 7% 48%  
137 5% 42%  
138 7% 37%  
139 5% 30%  
140 5% 25%  
141 4% 20%  
142 3% 16%  
143 4% 14%  
144 2% 10%  
145 2% 8%  
146 2% 6%  
147 1.2% 4%  
148 1.1% 3%  
149 0.7% 2%  
150 0.5% 1.4%  
151 0.3% 0.8%  
152 0.2% 0.6%  
153 0.2% 0.4%  
154 0.1% 0.2%  
155 0.1% 0.2%  
156 0% 0.1%  
157 0% 0.1%  
158 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.2% 99.5%  
99 0.6% 99.3%  
100 0.7% 98.7%  
101 0.8% 98%  
102 2% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 93%  
105 3% 91%  
106 4% 88%  
107 3% 84%  
108 5% 81%  
109 6% 75%  
110 6% 69%  
111 8% 63%  
112 6% 55% Median
113 6% 49%  
114 5% 42%  
115 8% 38%  
116 5% 30%  
117 4% 25%  
118 6% 21%  
119 4% 15%  
120 3% 11%  
121 2% 9%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.2% 5%  
124 1.4% 4%  
125 0.8% 2%  
126 0.7% 2%  
127 0.3% 0.9%  
128 0.2% 0.6%  
129 0.2% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.2%  
65 1.1% 98.7%  
66 2% 98%  
67 1.4% 96%  
68 4% 94%  
69 4% 90%  
70 4% 87%  
71 8% 83%  
72 5% 74%  
73 8% 69%  
74 9% 61%  
75 5% 52% Median
76 10% 47%  
77 6% 36%  
78 6% 30%  
79 7% 25%  
80 3% 17%  
81 4% 14%  
82 3% 10%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.0% 3%  
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.4%  
88 0.2% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.7%  
50 0.5% 99.4%  
51 2% 98.9%  
52 2% 97%  
53 2% 95%  
54 4% 93%  
55 4% 88%  
56 4% 84%  
57 9% 80%  
58 8% 71%  
59 10% 63%  
60 8% 54% Median
61 8% 46%  
62 5% 38%  
63 9% 33%  
64 8% 23%  
65 3% 15%  
66 4% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 1.5% 5%  
69 1.4% 4% Last Result
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.1%  
72 0.4% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100% Last Result
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.1%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 0.3% 97%  
53 4% 97%  
54 2% 92%  
55 7% 90%  
56 2% 83%  
57 10% 81%  
58 8% 71%  
59 10% 64%  
60 6% 54% Median
61 11% 48%  
62 8% 37%  
63 8% 29%  
64 6% 21%  
65 4% 16%  
66 3% 11%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 0.9% 3%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.2%  
72 0.5% 0.9%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 0.6% 99.3%  
48 1.1% 98.6%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 95%  
51 5% 92%  
52 7% 87%  
53 9% 79%  
54 9% 70%  
55 8% 61%  
56 9% 53% Median
57 7% 44%  
58 6% 37%  
59 6% 31%  
60 6% 25%  
61 5% 19%  
62 5% 14%  
63 3% 9%  
64 2% 6%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.5% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 518 100% 508–527 505–529 503–531 499–536
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 393 462 100% 451–471 449–474 446–476 442–481
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 479 439 100% 428–449 426–452 424–454 419–459
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 405 100% 395–415 392–418 389–421 384–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 420 401 100% 391–412 388–414 386–417 381–422
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 382 100% 372–393 369–395 367–398 362–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 345 12% 334–355 331–358 329–361 324–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei 326 326 0% 316–337 313–340 310–342 306–347
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 308 0% 297–318 295–321 292–323 287–328
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 304 0% 294–314 291–317 288–320 284–325
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 248 0% 238–258 235–260 233–263 228–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 163–182 161–184 159–187 155–191
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 169 0% 160–177 157–180 155–182 152–187

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 99.9%  
496 0.1% 99.9%  
497 0.1% 99.8%  
498 0.1% 99.7%  
499 0.2% 99.6%  
500 0.4% 99.3%  
501 0.3% 99.0%  
502 0.7% 98.6%  
503 0.8% 98%  
504 0.9% 97%  
505 1.4% 96%  
506 1.5% 95%  
507 2% 93%  
508 3% 91%  
509 2% 89%  
510 3% 86%  
511 3% 83%  
512 4% 80%  
513 4% 75%  
514 5% 71%  
515 5% 66%  
516 5% 61%  
517 6% 56% Median
518 4% 50%  
519 5% 46%  
520 6% 41%  
521 5% 35%  
522 4% 30%  
523 4% 26%  
524 4% 22%  
525 4% 18%  
526 3% 14%  
527 3% 12%  
528 2% 9%  
529 2% 7%  
530 1.2% 5%  
531 1.2% 4%  
532 0.8% 2%  
533 0.5% 2%  
534 0.4% 1.1%  
535 0.2% 0.7%  
536 0.2% 0.5%  
537 0.1% 0.3%  
538 0.1% 0.2%  
539 0.1% 0.1%  
540 0% 0.1%  
541 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.8%  
441 0.2% 99.7%  
442 0.2% 99.5%  
443 0.2% 99.3%  
444 0.4% 99.0%  
445 0.6% 98.6%  
446 0.5% 98%  
447 1.0% 97%  
448 1.2% 96%  
449 2% 95%  
450 2% 93%  
451 2% 92%  
452 2% 90%  
453 4% 87%  
454 3% 84%  
455 4% 80%  
456 4% 77%  
457 4% 73%  
458 5% 69%  
459 6% 64%  
460 4% 59%  
461 5% 55% Median
462 5% 50%  
463 4% 45%  
464 6% 40%  
465 4% 35%  
466 4% 30%  
467 4% 27%  
468 5% 23%  
469 3% 18%  
470 2% 15%  
471 3% 13%  
472 2% 10%  
473 2% 8%  
474 1.4% 6%  
475 1.2% 5%  
476 1.2% 3%  
477 0.5% 2%  
478 0.6% 2%  
479 0.3% 1.2%  
480 0.3% 0.9%  
481 0.2% 0.6%  
482 0.1% 0.4%  
483 0.1% 0.3%  
484 0% 0.2%  
485 0% 0.1%  
486 0% 0.1%  
487 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.7%  
418 0.1% 99.6%  
419 0.2% 99.5%  
420 0.3% 99.3%  
421 0.4% 99.0%  
422 0.4% 98.6%  
423 0.7% 98%  
424 0.8% 98%  
425 1.4% 97%  
426 1.3% 95%  
427 2% 94%  
428 2% 92%  
429 3% 90%  
430 3% 87%  
431 4% 85%  
432 4% 80%  
433 4% 77%  
434 4% 73%  
435 5% 69%  
436 4% 64%  
437 5% 60%  
438 4% 55% Median
439 4% 51%  
440 5% 47%  
441 6% 42%  
442 5% 36%  
443 3% 31%  
444 4% 28%  
445 3% 24%  
446 5% 21%  
447 3% 16%  
448 3% 13%  
449 2% 10%  
450 2% 8%  
451 2% 7%  
452 1.3% 5%  
453 1.0% 4%  
454 0.6% 3%  
455 0.6% 2%  
456 0.4% 2%  
457 0.4% 1.2%  
458 0.2% 0.8%  
459 0.2% 0.6%  
460 0.1% 0.4%  
461 0.1% 0.3%  
462 0.1% 0.2%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 99.9%  
381 0.1% 99.9%  
382 0.1% 99.8%  
383 0.1% 99.7%  
384 0.1% 99.6%  
385 0.2% 99.5%  
386 0.3% 99.3%  
387 0.4% 99.0%  
388 0.5% 98.6%  
389 0.7% 98%  
390 0.9% 97%  
391 0.8% 96%  
392 2% 96%  
393 1.4% 94%  
394 2% 92%  
395 2% 91%  
396 3% 88%  
397 3% 85%  
398 3% 82%  
399 4% 79%  
400 4% 75%  
401 4% 71%  
402 4% 67%  
403 5% 63%  
404 4% 57%  
405 4% 53% Median
406 6% 49%  
407 5% 44%  
408 4% 39%  
409 4% 34%  
410 4% 30%  
411 5% 26%  
412 3% 21%  
413 3% 18%  
414 4% 16%  
415 2% 12%  
416 2% 10%  
417 2% 8%  
418 2% 6%  
419 0.9% 5%  
420 0.9% 4%  
421 0.7% 3%  
422 0.7% 2%  
423 0.5% 1.5%  
424 0.2% 1.0%  
425 0.2% 0.7%  
426 0.2% 0.5%  
427 0.1% 0.3%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0.1% 0.1%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.8%  
380 0.1% 99.7%  
381 0.2% 99.6%  
382 0.3% 99.4%  
383 0.2% 99.1%  
384 0.7% 98.9%  
385 0.6% 98%  
386 0.5% 98%  
387 2% 97%  
388 1.4% 96%  
389 1.0% 94%  
390 3% 93%  
391 2% 90%  
392 3% 89%  
393 4% 86%  
394 2% 82%  
395 6% 80%  
396 4% 74%  
397 4% 71%  
398 7% 67%  
399 2% 60%  
400 6% 58%  
401 5% 52% Median
402 3% 47%  
403 7% 44%  
404 4% 37%  
405 4% 34%  
406 5% 30%  
407 2% 24%  
408 4% 23%  
409 3% 19%  
410 1.3% 15%  
411 4% 14%  
412 2% 10%  
413 2% 9%  
414 1.4% 6%  
415 0.7% 5%  
416 1.2% 4%  
417 0.7% 3%  
418 0.6% 2%  
419 0.4% 2%  
420 0.3% 1.2% Last Result
421 0.3% 0.9%  
422 0.2% 0.6%  
423 0.1% 0.4%  
424 0.1% 0.3%  
425 0.1% 0.2%  
426 0% 0.1%  
427 0% 0.1%  
428 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 99.9%  
358 0.1% 99.9%  
359 0.1% 99.8%  
360 0.1% 99.7%  
361 0.1% 99.6%  
362 0.2% 99.5%  
363 0.3% 99.3%  
364 0.2% 99.0%  
365 0.5% 98.7%  
366 0.7% 98%  
367 0.6% 98%  
368 0.6% 97%  
369 1.3% 96%  
370 2% 95%  
371 2% 93%  
372 2% 92%  
373 3% 89%  
374 4% 87%  
375 3% 83%  
376 5% 80%  
377 4% 75%  
378 4% 71%  
379 5% 67%  
380 3% 62%  
381 5% 58%  
382 5% 53% Median
383 4% 48%  
384 4% 44%  
385 5% 40%  
386 5% 34%  
387 4% 30%  
388 4% 26%  
389 3% 23%  
390 3% 20%  
391 3% 18%  
392 4% 15%  
393 2% 11%  
394 2% 9%  
395 2% 7%  
396 0.9% 5%  
397 0.9% 4%  
398 0.9% 3%  
399 0.5% 2% Last Result
400 0.5% 2%  
401 0.3% 1.2%  
402 0.3% 0.8%  
403 0.1% 0.5%  
404 0.1% 0.4%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0% 0.1%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 99.9%  
320 0.1% 99.9%  
321 0.1% 99.9%  
322 0.1% 99.8%  
323 0.1% 99.7%  
324 0.1% 99.6%  
325 0.2% 99.5%  
326 0.3% 99.2%  
327 0.4% 98.9%  
328 0.7% 98%  
329 0.7% 98%  
330 1.1% 97%  
331 1.0% 96%  
332 1.4% 95%  
333 2% 94%  
334 2% 92%  
335 2% 90%  
336 2% 87%  
337 3% 85%  
338 3% 83%  
339 4% 79%  
340 4% 75% Last Result
341 6% 72%  
342 5% 66%  
343 6% 61%  
344 4% 55%  
345 5% 51% Median
346 5% 46%  
347 5% 42%  
348 4% 37%  
349 3% 33%  
350 5% 30%  
351 5% 25%  
352 3% 20%  
353 3% 17%  
354 2% 14%  
355 3% 12% Majority
356 2% 9%  
357 1.4% 7%  
358 1.2% 6%  
359 1.4% 5%  
360 0.7% 3%  
361 0.7% 3%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.6% 2%  
364 0.3% 1.0%  
365 0.2% 0.7%  
366 0.1% 0.5%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0.1%  
373 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0.1% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.2% 99.7%  
306 0.1% 99.5%  
307 0.5% 99.4%  
308 0.4% 98.9%  
309 0.3% 98%  
310 1.0% 98%  
311 0.7% 97%  
312 0.9% 96%  
313 2% 96%  
314 1.0% 93%  
315 2% 92%  
316 3% 91%  
317 2% 87%  
318 2% 85%  
319 5% 83%  
320 3% 78%  
321 3% 76%  
322 6% 72%  
323 3% 66%  
324 6% 63%  
325 4% 57%  
326 4% 53% Last Result, Median
327 7% 49%  
328 3% 42%  
329 5% 39%  
330 5% 34%  
331 3% 29%  
332 4% 26%  
333 4% 22%  
334 3% 18%  
335 3% 15%  
336 2% 12%  
337 3% 10%  
338 1.3% 8%  
339 1.3% 6%  
340 1.3% 5%  
341 0.6% 4%  
342 1.1% 3%  
343 0.5% 2%  
344 0.4% 2%  
345 0.3% 1.2%  
346 0.3% 0.9%  
347 0.2% 0.7%  
348 0.2% 0.5%  
349 0.1% 0.3%  
350 0.1% 0.2%  
351 0.1% 0.2%  
352 0% 0.1%  
353 0% 0.1%  
354 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
282 0% 100%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0.1% 99.9%  
285 0.1% 99.8%  
286 0.1% 99.7%  
287 0.2% 99.6%  
288 0.3% 99.4%  
289 0.3% 99.1% Last Result
290 0.4% 98.8%  
291 0.6% 98%  
292 0.7% 98%  
293 1.2% 97%  
294 0.7% 96%  
295 1.4% 95%  
296 2% 94%  
297 2% 91%  
298 4% 90%  
299 1.3% 86%  
300 3% 85%  
301 4% 81%  
302 2% 77%  
303 5% 76%  
304 4% 70%  
305 4% 66%  
306 7% 63%  
307 3% 56% Median
308 5% 53%  
309 6% 48%  
310 2% 42%  
311 7% 40%  
312 4% 33%  
313 4% 29%  
314 6% 26%  
315 2% 20%  
316 4% 18%  
317 3% 14%  
318 2% 11%  
319 3% 10%  
320 1.0% 7%  
321 1.4% 6%  
322 2% 4%  
323 0.5% 3%  
324 0.6% 2%  
325 0.7% 2%  
326 0.2% 1.1%  
327 0.3% 0.9%  
328 0.2% 0.6%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.3%  
331 0% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.2% 99.7%  
284 0.2% 99.5%  
285 0.3% 99.3%  
286 0.5% 99.1%  
287 0.4% 98.6%  
288 0.8% 98%  
289 0.7% 97%  
290 1.4% 97%  
291 0.9% 95%  
292 2% 94%  
293 2% 92%  
294 2% 90%  
295 2% 89%  
296 4% 86%  
297 3% 82%  
298 3% 79%  
299 4% 76%  
300 5% 72% Last Result
301 4% 67%  
302 5% 63%  
303 7% 58% Median
304 4% 52%  
305 4% 47%  
306 5% 43%  
307 5% 38%  
308 3% 33%  
309 5% 30%  
310 4% 25%  
311 3% 21%  
312 3% 17%  
313 3% 15%  
314 2% 11%  
315 2% 10%  
316 1.2% 8%  
317 2% 6%  
318 0.8% 4%  
319 1.0% 4%  
320 0.6% 3%  
321 0.7% 2%  
322 0.3% 1.4%  
323 0.3% 1.1%  
324 0.3% 0.8%  
325 0.1% 0.5%  
326 0.1% 0.4%  
327 0.1% 0.2%  
328 0.1% 0.2%  
329 0% 0.1%  
330 0% 0.1%  
331 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0.1% 99.9%  
225 0% 99.9%  
226 0.1% 99.8%  
227 0.2% 99.7%  
228 0.2% 99.5%  
229 0.3% 99.4%  
230 0.4% 99.1%  
231 0.6% 98.7%  
232 0.6% 98%  
233 0.8% 98%  
234 1.1% 97%  
235 1.3% 96%  
236 2% 94%  
237 2% 92%  
238 3% 90%  
239 2% 88%  
240 4% 86%  
241 3% 82%  
242 4% 79%  
243 4% 75%  
244 5% 71%  
245 4% 66%  
246 4% 62%  
247 6% 58% Median
248 6% 52%  
249 5% 46%  
250 5% 41%  
251 5% 36%  
252 4% 32%  
253 5% 28%  
254 4% 23%  
255 3% 19%  
256 3% 16%  
257 3% 13%  
258 3% 11%  
259 1.2% 8%  
260 2% 7%  
261 1.1% 5%  
262 0.9% 4%  
263 0.8% 3%  
264 0.7% 2%  
265 0.4% 1.4%  
266 0.2% 0.9%  
267 0.3% 0.7%  
268 0.1% 0.5%  
269 0.1% 0.3%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0.1% 0.2%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
151 0.1% 100%  
152 0% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.6%  
156 0.4% 99.4%  
157 0.5% 99.0%  
158 0.7% 98%  
159 0.6% 98%  
160 1.4% 97%  
161 2% 96%  
162 2% 94%  
163 2% 92%  
164 2% 90%  
165 4% 88%  
166 3% 84%  
167 5% 81%  
168 5% 77%  
169 4% 71%  
170 7% 67%  
171 5% 60%  
172 4% 55% Median
173 6% 51%  
174 6% 45%  
175 6% 39%  
176 3% 33%  
177 4% 30%  
178 6% 26%  
179 3% 20%  
180 4% 17%  
181 3% 13%  
182 3% 11%  
183 1.2% 7%  
184 2% 6%  
185 1.2% 4%  
186 0.6% 3%  
187 1.0% 3%  
188 0.4% 2%  
189 0.3% 1.1%  
190 0.3% 0.8%  
191 0.2% 0.5%  
192 0.1% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0.1% 0.2%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
147 0% 100%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.9%  
150 0.1% 99.8%  
151 0.2% 99.7%  
152 0.2% 99.5%  
153 0.5% 99.3%  
154 0.5% 98.8%  
155 1.0% 98%  
156 0.7% 97%  
157 2% 97%  
158 2% 95%  
159 2% 93%  
160 3% 91%  
161 2% 88%  
162 4% 86%  
163 5% 82%  
164 5% 77%  
165 5% 72%  
166 5% 67%  
167 6% 63%  
168 5% 56% Median
169 5% 51%  
170 6% 46%  
171 5% 40%  
172 7% 35%  
173 4% 29%  
174 5% 25%  
175 4% 20%  
176 3% 16%  
177 3% 13%  
178 2% 10%  
179 2% 8%  
180 1.4% 6%  
181 1.4% 5%  
182 1.0% 3%  
183 0.7% 2%  
184 0.6% 2%  
185 0.3% 1.2%  
186 0.3% 0.9%  
187 0.2% 0.6%  
188 0.1% 0.4%  
189 0.1% 0.3%  
190 0% 0.2%  
191 0% 0.1%  
192 0% 0.1%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations