Opinion Poll by Kantar, 5–13 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 29.2% 28.1–30.5% 27.7–30.8% 27.4–31.1% 26.9–31.7%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 18.0% 17.0–19.1% 16.8–19.4% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.1–16.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–17.0%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 10.0% 9.3–10.8% 9.0–11.1% 8.9–11.3% 8.5–11.7%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.3–8.8% 7.1–9.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.5%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.4–7.7% 6.2–7.9% 6.1–8.1% 5.8–8.5%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.8% 6.1–7.5% 6.0–7.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 220 211–229 209–231 207–234 202–238
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 135 128–143 126–145 124–147 121–151
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 113 106–120 104–122 103–124 99–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 76 70–82 68–83 67–85 64–88
Die Linke 69 60 55–66 54–68 53–69 50–72
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 48–58 47–60 46–61 43–64
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 51 46–56 45–57 44–59 42–61

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
198 0% 100%  
199 0.1% 99.9%  
200 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
201 0.1% 99.8%  
202 0.2% 99.7%  
203 0.3% 99.5%  
204 0.3% 99.2%  
205 0.5% 98.9%  
206 0.7% 98%  
207 0.9% 98%  
208 1.3% 97%  
209 2% 96%  
210 2% 94%  
211 3% 92%  
212 3% 89%  
213 4% 86%  
214 5% 82%  
215 5% 77%  
216 5% 72%  
217 5% 67%  
218 5% 63%  
219 5% 57%  
220 5% 52% Median
221 5% 48%  
222 6% 43%  
223 5% 37%  
224 4% 32%  
225 4% 28%  
226 5% 23%  
227 4% 18%  
228 3% 14%  
229 3% 11%  
230 2% 8%  
231 2% 6%  
232 1.1% 4%  
233 0.8% 3%  
234 0.7% 3%  
235 0.5% 2%  
236 0.4% 1.3%  
237 0.4% 1.0%  
238 0.2% 0.6%  
239 0.1% 0.4%  
240 0.1% 0.3%  
241 0.1% 0.2%  
242 0% 0.1%  
243 0% 0.1%  
244 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0.1% 99.9%  
119 0% 99.9%  
120 0.3% 99.8%  
121 0.1% 99.5%  
122 0.5% 99.4%  
123 0.5% 98.9%  
124 1.2% 98%  
125 0.7% 97%  
126 2% 97%  
127 2% 94%  
128 4% 93%  
129 2% 89%  
130 7% 87%  
131 4% 80%  
132 6% 76%  
133 7% 70%  
134 7% 63%  
135 7% 57% Median
136 5% 50%  
137 8% 44%  
138 4% 37%  
139 6% 32%  
140 4% 26%  
141 6% 22%  
142 2% 16%  
143 5% 13%  
144 1.1% 9%  
145 3% 7%  
146 0.5% 4%  
147 2% 4%  
148 0.3% 2%  
149 0.9% 2%  
150 0.1% 0.9%  
151 0.4% 0.8%  
152 0.1% 0.4%  
153 0.2% 0.3%  
154 0% 0.1%  
155 0.1% 0.1%  
156 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0% 100%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.1% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.7%  
100 0.5% 99.5%  
101 0.5% 99.0%  
102 0.8% 98.5%  
103 1.5% 98%  
104 2% 96%  
105 3% 94%  
106 3% 92%  
107 4% 89%  
108 5% 85%  
109 4% 79%  
110 8% 76%  
111 7% 68%  
112 7% 60%  
113 6% 53% Median
114 8% 48%  
115 6% 40%  
116 6% 33%  
117 6% 27%  
118 6% 22%  
119 3% 16%  
120 2% 12%  
121 3% 10%  
122 2% 7%  
123 1.4% 5%  
124 1.0% 3%  
125 0.8% 2%  
126 0.5% 1.3%  
127 0.2% 0.8%  
128 0.3% 0.6%  
129 0.2% 0.3%  
130 0.1% 0.2%  
131 0% 0.1%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.7% 99.4%  
66 1.0% 98.7%  
67 1.2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 5% 91%  
71 5% 86%  
72 7% 81%  
73 7% 75%  
74 9% 68%  
75 8% 58%  
76 9% 50% Median
77 7% 42%  
78 9% 34%  
79 6% 26%  
80 5% 19%  
81 4% 14%  
82 3% 10%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.7% 3%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.1%  
88 0.2% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 0.7% 99.4%  
52 1.1% 98.7%  
53 2% 98%  
54 3% 96%  
55 4% 93%  
56 6% 89%  
57 8% 83%  
58 7% 75%  
59 8% 69%  
60 11% 60% Median
61 10% 49%  
62 9% 40%  
63 8% 31%  
64 6% 23%  
65 5% 17%  
66 4% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.4% 3% Last Result
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.5%  
45 1.2% 98.8%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 95%  
48 4% 92%  
49 7% 88%  
50 7% 80%  
51 11% 74%  
52 8% 63%  
53 11% 55% Median
54 11% 44%  
55 8% 33%  
56 8% 26%  
57 5% 18%  
58 4% 13%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.3% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.5% 99.6%  
43 0.9% 99.1%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 96%  
46 4% 93% Last Result
47 5% 88%  
48 9% 83%  
49 9% 74%  
50 7% 65%  
51 10% 58% Median
52 13% 48%  
53 10% 36%  
54 8% 25%  
55 4% 17%  
56 4% 13%  
57 4% 8%  
58 2% 5%  
59 1.0% 3%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.6% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 520 100% 511–528 509–531 507–533 503–537
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 460 100% 451–469 448–471 446–474 441–478
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 437 100% 428–446 425–449 423–451 419–456
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 407 100% 397–416 395–419 392–421 388–426
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 400 100% 390–409 388–412 385–414 380–419
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 384 100% 375–394 372–396 370–399 365–403
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 347 15% 337–356 334–359 332–361 328–366
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 326 0% 316–331 315–334 308–340 304–343
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 309 0% 300–319 297–321 295–324 290–329
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 302 0% 292–311 290–314 288–317 283–321
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 249 0% 240–258 237–261 235–263 231–267
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 173 0% 165–182 163–184 161–187 157–190
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 166 0% 158–174 156–177 154–179 150–183

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.9%  
501 0.2% 99.8%  
502 0.1% 99.7%  
503 0.3% 99.5%  
504 0.3% 99.2%  
505 0.4% 98.9%  
506 0.6% 98%  
507 0.9% 98%  
508 1.3% 97%  
509 2% 96%  
510 2% 94%  
511 2% 92%  
512 2% 90%  
513 4% 88%  
514 5% 84%  
515 4% 79%  
516 6% 75%  
517 5% 70%  
518 5% 65%  
519 6% 60% Median
520 7% 54%  
521 7% 47%  
522 6% 40%  
523 5% 34%  
524 4% 29%  
525 4% 25%  
526 5% 21%  
527 4% 16%  
528 3% 12%  
529 2% 9%  
530 2% 7%  
531 1.1% 5%  
532 1.4% 4%  
533 1.0% 3%  
534 0.6% 2%  
535 0.4% 1.3%  
536 0.3% 0.9%  
537 0.2% 0.6%  
538 0.1% 0.4%  
539 0.1% 0.2%  
540 0.1% 0.1%  
541 0% 0.1%  
542 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 100%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.7%  
441 0.2% 99.6%  
442 0.3% 99.5%  
443 0.3% 99.2%  
444 0.5% 98.9%  
445 0.5% 98%  
446 0.9% 98%  
447 1.0% 97%  
448 1.2% 96%  
449 2% 95%  
450 2% 92%  
451 3% 90%  
452 4% 88%  
453 3% 83%  
454 4% 80%  
455 4% 76%  
456 4% 72%  
457 6% 68%  
458 5% 61%  
459 4% 57% Median
460 6% 53%  
461 6% 47%  
462 5% 42%  
463 5% 37%  
464 6% 32%  
465 5% 25%  
466 4% 21%  
467 4% 17%  
468 2% 13%  
469 3% 11%  
470 2% 8%  
471 2% 6%  
472 1.1% 5%  
473 0.9% 3%  
474 0.7% 3%  
475 0.5% 2%  
476 0.4% 1.3%  
477 0.3% 0.9%  
478 0.2% 0.7%  
479 0.2% 0.4%  
480 0.1% 0.2%  
481 0.1% 0.2%  
482 0% 0.1%  
483 0% 0.1%  
484 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 99.9%  
415 0% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.9%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.7%  
419 0.3% 99.5%  
420 0.3% 99.2%  
421 0.3% 98.9%  
422 0.8% 98.6%  
423 0.6% 98%  
424 1.2% 97%  
425 1.0% 96%  
426 2% 95%  
427 3% 93%  
428 2% 90%  
429 4% 88%  
430 3% 85%  
431 4% 82%  
432 5% 78%  
433 3% 73%  
434 6% 70%  
435 4% 64%  
436 5% 60%  
437 6% 55% Median
438 5% 49%  
439 6% 45%  
440 6% 39%  
441 4% 33%  
442 6% 29%  
443 4% 23%  
444 3% 19%  
445 3% 16%  
446 4% 13%  
447 1.4% 9%  
448 2% 8%  
449 1.1% 5%  
450 1.0% 4%  
451 0.9% 3%  
452 0.7% 2%  
453 0.4% 2%  
454 0.3% 1.2%  
455 0.3% 0.9%  
456 0.2% 0.6%  
457 0.1% 0.3%  
458 0.1% 0.3%  
459 0% 0.2%  
460 0% 0.1%  
461 0% 0.1%  
462 0% 0%  
463 0% 0%  
464 0% 0%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 100%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.8%  
387 0.1% 99.7%  
388 0.3% 99.6%  
389 0.3% 99.3%  
390 0.4% 99.0%  
391 0.6% 98.6%  
392 0.6% 98%  
393 0.9% 97%  
394 1.3% 96%  
395 2% 95%  
396 2% 93%  
397 2% 91%  
398 2% 89%  
399 3% 87%  
400 4% 84%  
401 4% 80%  
402 5% 76%  
403 5% 71%  
404 5% 66%  
405 4% 62%  
406 6% 58% Median
407 5% 52%  
408 4% 47%  
409 6% 43%  
410 5% 37%  
411 5% 32%  
412 5% 26%  
413 3% 22%  
414 4% 19%  
415 3% 15%  
416 2% 12%  
417 3% 10%  
418 2% 7%  
419 1.4% 5%  
420 0.8% 4%  
421 0.9% 3%  
422 0.6% 2%  
423 0.5% 2%  
424 0.3% 1.1%  
425 0.2% 0.8%  
426 0.2% 0.6%  
427 0.2% 0.4%  
428 0.1% 0.2%  
429 0.1% 0.2%  
430 0% 0.1%  
431 0% 0.1%  
432 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 99.9%  
377 0% 99.9%  
378 0.1% 99.9%  
379 0.1% 99.7%  
380 0.1% 99.6%  
381 0.3% 99.5%  
382 0.3% 99.2%  
383 0.4% 98.9%  
384 0.4% 98.5%  
385 0.7% 98%  
386 1.0% 97%  
387 1.0% 96%  
388 2% 95%  
389 2% 94%  
390 3% 92%  
391 3% 89%  
392 3% 86%  
393 4% 83%  
394 4% 79%  
395 5% 75%  
396 4% 70%  
397 6% 66%  
398 4% 60%  
399 6% 57%  
400 5% 51% Median
401 4% 46%  
402 5% 42%  
403 5% 37%  
404 5% 31%  
405 4% 27%  
406 4% 22%  
407 3% 18%  
408 4% 15%  
409 3% 11%  
410 2% 8%  
411 1.4% 7%  
412 1.3% 5%  
413 1.1% 4%  
414 0.6% 3%  
415 0.5% 2%  
416 0.5% 2%  
417 0.3% 1.1%  
418 0.2% 0.8%  
419 0.2% 0.6%  
420 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
421 0.1% 0.3%  
422 0.1% 0.2%  
423 0% 0.1%  
424 0% 0.1%  
425 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.7%  
365 0.2% 99.6%  
366 0.2% 99.4%  
367 0.5% 99.2%  
368 0.5% 98.7%  
369 0.6% 98%  
370 1.0% 98%  
371 0.9% 97%  
372 2% 96%  
373 1.2% 94%  
374 3% 93%  
375 2% 90%  
376 3% 88%  
377 2% 85%  
378 5% 83%  
379 5% 78%  
380 4% 73%  
381 5% 69%  
382 4% 64%  
383 4% 60%  
384 7% 56% Median
385 5% 49%  
386 8% 44%  
387 3% 37%  
388 6% 34%  
389 2% 28%  
390 5% 25%  
391 4% 20%  
392 3% 16%  
393 3% 13%  
394 2% 10%  
395 2% 9%  
396 2% 7%  
397 1.4% 5%  
398 1.0% 3%  
399 0.5% 3% Last Result
400 0.5% 2%  
401 0.4% 1.5%  
402 0.5% 1.1%  
403 0.2% 0.7%  
404 0.2% 0.5%  
405 0.1% 0.3%  
406 0.1% 0.2%  
407 0.1% 0.2%  
408 0% 0.1%  
409 0% 0.1%  
410 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 99.9%  
324 0% 99.9%  
325 0.1% 99.9%  
326 0.1% 99.8%  
327 0.1% 99.7%  
328 0.3% 99.5%  
329 0.2% 99.2%  
330 0.4% 99.0%  
331 0.6% 98.6%  
332 0.8% 98%  
333 0.9% 97%  
334 2% 96%  
335 1.1% 95%  
336 3% 93%  
337 2% 91%  
338 3% 89%  
339 3% 86%  
340 4% 83% Last Result
341 4% 79%  
342 4% 76%  
343 4% 71%  
344 5% 67%  
345 5% 62%  
346 6% 57%  
347 4% 51% Median
348 7% 47%  
349 4% 40%  
350 3% 36%  
351 7% 33%  
352 4% 26%  
353 4% 22%  
354 3% 18%  
355 3% 15% Majority
356 3% 12%  
357 3% 9%  
358 1.5% 7%  
359 1.3% 5%  
360 1.0% 4%  
361 0.9% 3%  
362 0.5% 2%  
363 0.5% 2%  
364 0.4% 1.2%  
365 0.2% 0.8%  
366 0.2% 0.6%  
367 0.1% 0.4%  
368 0.1% 0.3%  
369 0.1% 0.2%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
302 0% 100%  
303 0.2% 99.9%  
304 0.4% 99.8%  
305 0.3% 99.4%  
306 0.3% 99.1%  
307 0.8% 98.8%  
308 0.6% 98%  
309 0.3% 97%  
310 0.1% 97%  
311 0.1% 97%  
312 0.3% 97%  
313 0.6% 97%  
314 0.9% 96%  
315 2% 95%  
316 8% 93%  
317 11% 85%  
318 6% 74%  
319 3% 68%  
320 6% 65%  
321 4% 59%  
322 2% 55%  
323 0.3% 53%  
324 0.5% 53% Median
325 1.5% 53%  
326 5% 51% Last Result
327 3% 47%  
328 4% 44%  
329 10% 39%  
330 15% 30%  
331 5% 15%  
332 2% 9%  
333 2% 8%  
334 1.1% 6%  
335 0.4% 5%  
336 0.1% 4%  
337 0.1% 4%  
338 0.5% 4%  
339 1.0% 4%  
340 0.6% 3%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.6% 2%  
343 0.7% 1.1%  
344 0.3% 0.4%  
345 0% 0.1%  
346 0% 0.1%  
347 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
285 0% 100%  
286 0% 99.9%  
287 0.1% 99.9%  
288 0.1% 99.8%  
289 0.1% 99.7% Last Result
290 0.2% 99.6%  
291 0.2% 99.4%  
292 0.3% 99.2%  
293 0.5% 98.9%  
294 0.5% 98%  
295 0.6% 98%  
296 1.1% 97%  
297 1.3% 96%  
298 1.4% 95%  
299 2% 93%  
300 3% 92%  
301 4% 89%  
302 3% 85%  
303 4% 82%  
304 4% 78%  
305 5% 73%  
306 5% 69%  
307 5% 63%  
308 4% 58% Median
309 5% 54%  
310 6% 49%  
311 4% 43%  
312 6% 40%  
313 4% 34%  
314 5% 30%  
315 4% 25%  
316 4% 21%  
317 3% 17%  
318 3% 14%  
319 3% 11%  
320 2% 8%  
321 2% 6%  
322 1.0% 5%  
323 1.0% 4%  
324 0.7% 3%  
325 0.4% 2%  
326 0.4% 1.5%  
327 0.3% 1.1%  
328 0.3% 0.8%  
329 0.1% 0.5%  
330 0.1% 0.4%  
331 0.1% 0.3%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
278 0% 100%  
279 0% 99.9%  
280 0.1% 99.9%  
281 0.1% 99.8%  
282 0.2% 99.7%  
283 0.2% 99.6%  
284 0.2% 99.4%  
285 0.6% 99.2%  
286 0.4% 98.6%  
287 0.6% 98%  
288 1.2% 98%  
289 0.6% 96%  
290 2% 96%  
291 1.1% 93%  
292 3% 92%  
293 3% 89%  
294 2% 86%  
295 5% 84%  
296 3% 79%  
297 5% 77%  
298 4% 71%  
299 5% 67%  
300 6% 62% Last Result
301 6% 56% Median
302 5% 51%  
303 6% 46%  
304 5% 40%  
305 4% 35%  
306 5% 31%  
307 3% 26%  
308 5% 23%  
309 2% 17%  
310 3% 15%  
311 3% 12%  
312 1.1% 10%  
313 3% 9%  
314 0.8% 5%  
315 1.2% 5%  
316 0.9% 4%  
317 0.6% 3%  
318 0.8% 2%  
319 0.2% 1.2%  
320 0.4% 1.0%  
321 0.1% 0.5%  
322 0.2% 0.4%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0.1% 0.2%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 99.9%  
228 0.1% 99.9%  
229 0.1% 99.8%  
230 0.2% 99.7%  
231 0.2% 99.5%  
232 0.4% 99.3%  
233 0.4% 98.9%  
234 0.7% 98.6%  
235 0.9% 98%  
236 0.9% 97%  
237 2% 96%  
238 2% 94%  
239 2% 93%  
240 2% 90%  
241 4% 88%  
242 5% 84%  
243 3% 80%  
244 4% 77%  
245 4% 72%  
246 7% 69%  
247 5% 62%  
248 6% 57% Median
249 5% 51%  
250 5% 46%  
251 5% 41%  
252 5% 35%  
253 5% 31%  
254 3% 25%  
255 5% 22%  
256 3% 17%  
257 3% 14%  
258 2% 11%  
259 2% 9%  
260 2% 7%  
261 1.2% 5%  
262 1.4% 4%  
263 0.7% 3%  
264 0.5% 2%  
265 0.5% 2%  
266 0.4% 1.1%  
267 0.2% 0.7%  
268 0.2% 0.5%  
269 0.1% 0.3%  
270 0.1% 0.2%  
271 0% 0.1%  
272 0% 0.1%  
273 0% 0.1%  
274 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
153 0% 100%  
154 0.1% 99.9%  
155 0.1% 99.9%  
156 0.1% 99.8%  
157 0.2% 99.7%  
158 0.3% 99.5%  
159 0.5% 99.2%  
160 0.7% 98.7%  
161 0.9% 98%  
162 2% 97%  
163 1.3% 96%  
164 2% 94%  
165 3% 92%  
166 3% 90%  
167 4% 87%  
168 5% 83%  
169 4% 79%  
170 4% 74%  
171 6% 70%  
172 6% 63%  
173 8% 58% Median
174 7% 50%  
175 6% 43%  
176 5% 37%  
177 6% 32%  
178 4% 26%  
179 5% 23%  
180 4% 18%  
181 3% 15%  
182 3% 11%  
183 1.4% 8%  
184 2% 7%  
185 1.3% 5%  
186 0.9% 4%  
187 1.1% 3%  
188 0.5% 2%  
189 0.4% 1.1%  
190 0.3% 0.7%  
191 0.1% 0.4%  
192 0.1% 0.3%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
146 0% 100%  
147 0% 99.9%  
148 0.1% 99.9%  
149 0.1% 99.8%  
150 0.2% 99.6%  
151 0.4% 99.4%  
152 0.4% 99.0%  
153 0.6% 98.6%  
154 1.1% 98%  
155 1.4% 97%  
156 1.5% 95%  
157 3% 94%  
158 2% 91%  
159 3% 89%  
160 6% 86%  
161 4% 80%  
162 6% 76%  
163 6% 70%  
164 5% 65%  
165 6% 59%  
166 7% 53% Median
167 5% 46%  
168 6% 41%  
169 6% 36%  
170 5% 30%  
171 4% 25%  
172 5% 20%  
173 3% 16%  
174 3% 12%  
175 3% 9%  
176 1.4% 7%  
177 2% 5%  
178 1.1% 4%  
179 0.7% 3%  
180 0.7% 2%  
181 0.5% 1.3%  
182 0.2% 0.8%  
183 0.2% 0.6%  
184 0.1% 0.4%  
185 0.1% 0.2%  
186 0.1% 0.1%  
187 0% 0.1%  
188 0% 0%  
189 0% 0%  
190 0% 0%  
191 0% 0%  
192 0% 0%  
193 0% 0%  
194 0% 0%  
195 0% 0%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations