Opinion Poll by Forsa, 16–17 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.5% 27.0–30.0% 26.6–30.4% 26.3–30.8% 25.6–31.5%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 19.0% 17.8–20.3% 17.4–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.5–21.7%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 13.9–16.3% 13.6–16.6% 13.3–16.9% 12.8–17.5%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 9.0% 8.1–10.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.3–11.1%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.1–8.9% 6.9–9.2% 6.7–9.4% 6.3–9.9%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 7.0% 6.2–7.9% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 6.5% 5.8–7.4% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–7.9% 5.1–8.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 216 206–228 203–231 200–234 195–239
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 145 135–154 133–157 130–160 126–165
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 114 106–123 103–126 101–129 98–133
Alternative für Deutschland 94 69 62–76 60–78 58–80 55–84
Die Linke 69 61 54–68 53–70 51–72 48–75
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 53 47–60 46–62 44–64 42–67
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 50 44–56 43–58 41–60 39–63

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
189 0% 100%  
190 0% 99.9%  
191 0.1% 99.9%  
192 0.1% 99.8%  
193 0.1% 99.8%  
194 0.1% 99.7%  
195 0.2% 99.5%  
196 0.3% 99.3%  
197 0.3% 99.1%  
198 0.5% 98.8%  
199 0.6% 98%  
200 0.8% 98% Last Result
201 0.8% 97%  
202 1.0% 96%  
203 1.3% 95%  
204 2% 94%  
205 2% 92%  
206 2% 90%  
207 3% 88%  
208 2% 85%  
209 4% 83%  
210 4% 79%  
211 4% 75%  
212 2% 72%  
213 6% 69%  
214 5% 64%  
215 4% 58%  
216 6% 55% Median
217 4% 48%  
218 4% 44%  
219 5% 41%  
220 4% 36%  
221 3% 32%  
222 4% 28%  
223 4% 24%  
224 3% 20%  
225 3% 17%  
226 3% 15%  
227 2% 12%  
228 2% 11%  
229 2% 8%  
230 1.0% 6%  
231 1.2% 5%  
232 0.9% 4%  
233 0.8% 3%  
234 0.7% 3%  
235 0.5% 2%  
236 0.3% 1.4%  
237 0.3% 1.1%  
238 0.3% 0.8%  
239 0.1% 0.6%  
240 0.1% 0.4%  
241 0.1% 0.3%  
242 0.1% 0.2%  
243 0.1% 0.2%  
244 0% 0.1%  
245 0% 0.1%  
246 0% 0.1%  
247 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 100%  
108 0% 100%  
109 0% 100%  
110 0% 100%  
111 0% 100%  
112 0% 100%  
113 0% 100%  
114 0% 100%  
115 0% 100%  
116 0% 100%  
117 0% 100%  
118 0% 100%  
119 0% 100%  
120 0% 100%  
121 0% 100%  
122 0% 99.9%  
123 0.1% 99.9%  
124 0.1% 99.8%  
125 0.2% 99.7%  
126 0.2% 99.5%  
127 0.3% 99.3%  
128 0.5% 99.0%  
129 0.5% 98.5%  
130 0.8% 98%  
131 0.8% 97%  
132 1.4% 96%  
133 1.4% 95%  
134 2% 94%  
135 2% 91%  
136 3% 89%  
137 4% 86%  
138 3% 82%  
139 5% 79%  
140 4% 75%  
141 5% 70%  
142 6% 65%  
143 4% 60%  
144 4% 55%  
145 5% 51% Median
146 6% 46%  
147 3% 40%  
148 6% 37%  
149 4% 31%  
150 5% 27%  
151 5% 22%  
152 2% 17%  
153 4% 15%  
154 2% 11%  
155 2% 9%  
156 1.4% 7%  
157 1.4% 6%  
158 1.0% 5%  
159 0.8% 4%  
160 0.8% 3%  
161 0.3% 2%  
162 0.6% 2%  
163 0.2% 1.0%  
164 0.3% 0.8%  
165 0.2% 0.5%  
166 0.1% 0.4%  
167 0.1% 0.3%  
168 0% 0.2%  
169 0% 0.1%  
170 0% 0.1%  
171 0% 0.1%  
172 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.8%  
97 0.2% 99.7%  
98 0.3% 99.5%  
99 0.4% 99.2%  
100 0.7% 98.8%  
101 1.0% 98%  
102 1.3% 97%  
103 2% 96%  
104 2% 94%  
105 2% 92%  
106 2% 90%  
107 3% 88%  
108 3% 85%  
109 3% 82%  
110 7% 79%  
111 5% 72%  
112 6% 67%  
113 7% 61%  
114 6% 54% Median
115 4% 49%  
116 5% 45%  
117 6% 39%  
118 4% 34%  
119 4% 29%  
120 5% 25%  
121 3% 20%  
122 5% 17%  
123 3% 12%  
124 2% 9%  
125 2% 7%  
126 1.3% 5%  
127 0.9% 4%  
128 0.7% 3%  
129 0.8% 3%  
130 0.5% 2%  
131 0.3% 1.2%  
132 0.4% 0.9%  
133 0.2% 0.5%  
134 0.1% 0.4%  
135 0.1% 0.2%  
136 0% 0.1%  
137 0% 0.1%  
138 0% 0.1%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 0.8% 98.9%  
58 1.1% 98%  
59 1.1% 97%  
60 2% 96%  
61 2% 94%  
62 3% 92%  
63 5% 89%  
64 8% 84%  
65 7% 77%  
66 5% 69%  
67 6% 64%  
68 5% 58%  
69 5% 53% Median
70 7% 48%  
71 8% 41%  
72 9% 33%  
73 5% 24%  
74 4% 18%  
75 3% 14%  
76 2% 11%  
77 2% 9%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.2%  
83 0.2% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.4%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  
90 0% 0%  
91 0% 0%  
92 0% 0%  
93 0% 0%  
94 0% 0% Last Result

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.7%  
49 0.4% 99.4%  
50 0.8% 98.9%  
51 1.4% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 3% 93%  
55 5% 90%  
56 5% 85%  
57 5% 80%  
58 7% 75%  
59 7% 68%  
60 8% 61%  
61 7% 52% Median
62 8% 45%  
63 7% 37%  
64 5% 30%  
65 6% 25%  
66 4% 19%  
67 3% 14%  
68 3% 11%  
69 2% 7% Last Result
70 2% 6%  
71 1.0% 4%  
72 1.0% 3%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.7%  
42 0.4% 99.5%  
43 0.9% 99.1%  
44 1.0% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 3% 95%  
47 3% 93%  
48 5% 89%  
49 7% 85%  
50 6% 78%  
51 9% 72%  
52 8% 63%  
53 7% 56% Median
54 8% 49%  
55 7% 41%  
56 6% 33%  
57 8% 28%  
58 5% 20%  
59 3% 15%  
60 4% 12%  
61 2% 8%  
62 2% 6%  
63 1.4% 4%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.2%  
67 0.2% 0.6%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 99.9%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 0.3% 99.5%  
40 1.2% 99.2%  
41 1.2% 98%  
42 2% 97%  
43 4% 95%  
44 3% 91%  
45 4% 88%  
46 7% 83% Last Result
47 5% 76%  
48 8% 71%  
49 10% 63%  
50 8% 53% Median
51 10% 44%  
52 7% 35%  
53 6% 28%  
54 6% 22%  
55 3% 16%  
56 4% 13%  
57 3% 9%  
58 2% 6%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.2% 3%  
61 0.5% 2%  
62 0.5% 1.2%  
63 0.3% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 526 100% 515–536 512–539 509–541 504–546
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 465 100% 454–476 450–479 447–482 441–487
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 435 100% 423–446 420–450 417–452 411–458
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 411 100% 399–423 396–426 393–430 387–435
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 389 100% 377–401 373–404 370–407 364–413
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 381 99.8% 369–393 366–396 363–399 357–405
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 335 2% 323–347 320–351 317–354 312–359
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 320 0% 308–332 305–336 302–339 296–345
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 320 0% 308–332 305–335 301–338 296–344
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 313 0% 301–325 298–328 295–331 289–337
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 259 0% 248–271 244–274 242–277 236–283
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 175 0% 165–186 162–189 160–191 155–197
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 168 0% 158–178 155–181 153–184 148–189

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 100%  
476 0% 100%  
477 0% 100%  
478 0% 100%  
479 0% 100%  
480 0% 100%  
481 0% 100%  
482 0% 100%  
483 0% 100%  
484 0% 100%  
485 0% 100%  
486 0% 100%  
487 0% 100%  
488 0% 100%  
489 0% 100%  
490 0% 100%  
491 0% 100%  
492 0% 100%  
493 0% 100%  
494 0% 100%  
495 0% 100%  
496 0% 100%  
497 0% 100%  
498 0% 100%  
499 0% 99.9%  
500 0.1% 99.9%  
501 0.1% 99.9%  
502 0.1% 99.8%  
503 0.1% 99.7%  
504 0.2% 99.6%  
505 0.2% 99.4%  
506 0.4% 99.3%  
507 0.3% 98.9%  
508 0.4% 98.5%  
509 0.8% 98%  
510 0.5% 97%  
511 1.1% 97%  
512 1.4% 96%  
513 1.3% 94%  
514 1.4% 93%  
515 2% 92%  
516 3% 89%  
517 2% 87%  
518 3% 84%  
519 3% 81%  
520 3% 78%  
521 6% 75%  
522 4% 69%  
523 3% 65%  
524 7% 62%  
525 4% 55% Median
526 5% 51%  
527 5% 47%  
528 5% 42%  
529 4% 37%  
530 4% 32%  
531 4% 29%  
532 5% 25%  
533 3% 20%  
534 3% 17%  
535 3% 14%  
536 2% 11%  
537 3% 9%  
538 1.2% 7%  
539 1.1% 6%  
540 1.3% 5%  
541 0.8% 3%  
542 0.4% 2%  
543 0.8% 2%  
544 0.3% 1.3%  
545 0.3% 1.0%  
546 0.2% 0.7%  
547 0.1% 0.5%  
548 0.1% 0.4%  
549 0.1% 0.2%  
550 0% 0.2%  
551 0% 0.1%  
552 0% 0.1%  
553 0% 0.1%  
554 0% 0.1%  
555 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 100%  
430 0% 100%  
431 0% 100%  
432 0% 100%  
433 0% 100%  
434 0% 100%  
435 0% 100%  
436 0% 99.9%  
437 0% 99.9%  
438 0.1% 99.9%  
439 0.1% 99.8%  
440 0.1% 99.7%  
441 0.1% 99.6%  
442 0.1% 99.5%  
443 0.3% 99.4%  
444 0.2% 99.1%  
445 0.4% 98.8%  
446 0.6% 98%  
447 0.8% 98%  
448 0.6% 97%  
449 0.9% 96%  
450 0.9% 95%  
451 1.2% 95%  
452 2% 93%  
453 2% 92%  
454 2% 90%  
455 2% 88%  
456 3% 85%  
457 5% 82%  
458 3% 77%  
459 3% 74%  
460 4% 71%  
461 4% 68%  
462 4% 64%  
463 3% 59%  
464 5% 56% Median
465 5% 51%  
466 6% 46%  
467 4% 40%  
468 3% 36%  
469 4% 32%  
470 4% 29%  
471 3% 25%  
472 2% 22%  
473 2% 19%  
474 3% 17%  
475 3% 14%  
476 2% 11%  
477 2% 9%  
478 1.4% 7%  
479 1.0% 6%  
480 0.9% 5%  
481 0.9% 4%  
482 0.6% 3%  
483 0.5% 2%  
484 0.4% 2%  
485 0.4% 1.4%  
486 0.3% 1.0%  
487 0.3% 0.7%  
488 0.1% 0.4%  
489 0.1% 0.3%  
490 0.1% 0.2%  
491 0.1% 0.2%  
492 0% 0.1%  
493 0% 0.1%  
494 0% 0.1%  
495 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 99.9%  
406 0% 99.9%  
407 0% 99.9%  
408 0.1% 99.8%  
409 0.1% 99.8%  
410 0.2% 99.7%  
411 0.2% 99.5%  
412 0.2% 99.4%  
413 0.3% 99.2%  
414 0.3% 98.9%  
415 0.4% 98.6%  
416 0.6% 98%  
417 0.5% 98%  
418 1.0% 97%  
419 0.7% 96%  
420 1.2% 95%  
421 2% 94%  
422 2% 92%  
423 2% 91%  
424 3% 89%  
425 2% 86%  
426 4% 84%  
427 3% 80%  
428 3% 77%  
429 3% 74%  
430 4% 71%  
431 3% 67%  
432 4% 64%  
433 4% 60% Median
434 5% 55%  
435 4% 50%  
436 5% 47%  
437 5% 42%  
438 4% 37%  
439 4% 33%  
440 4% 29%  
441 3% 25%  
442 3% 22%  
443 3% 19%  
444 2% 16%  
445 2% 14%  
446 2% 11%  
447 2% 9%  
448 2% 8%  
449 1.2% 6%  
450 1.2% 5%  
451 0.6% 4%  
452 0.8% 3%  
453 0.6% 2%  
454 0.4% 2%  
455 0.4% 1.4%  
456 0.3% 1.0%  
457 0.2% 0.7%  
458 0.1% 0.5%  
459 0.1% 0.4%  
460 0.1% 0.3%  
461 0.1% 0.2%  
462 0% 0.1%  
463 0% 0.1%  
464 0% 0.1%  
465 0% 0%  
466 0% 0%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 100%  
362 0% 100%  
363 0% 100%  
364 0% 100%  
365 0% 100%  
366 0% 100%  
367 0% 100%  
368 0% 100%  
369 0% 100%  
370 0% 100%  
371 0% 100%  
372 0% 100%  
373 0% 100%  
374 0% 100%  
375 0% 100%  
376 0% 100%  
377 0% 100%  
378 0% 100%  
379 0% 100%  
380 0% 100%  
381 0% 100%  
382 0% 99.9%  
383 0% 99.9%  
384 0.1% 99.9%  
385 0.1% 99.8%  
386 0.1% 99.7%  
387 0.1% 99.6%  
388 0.2% 99.5%  
389 0.2% 99.3%  
390 0.4% 99.0%  
391 0.4% 98.7%  
392 0.5% 98%  
393 0.5% 98%  
394 0.8% 97%  
395 0.9% 96%  
396 1.2% 96%  
397 1.4% 94%  
398 2% 93%  
399 1.5% 91%  
400 2% 90%  
401 2% 88%  
402 3% 85%  
403 2% 83%  
404 5% 80%  
405 3% 76%  
406 5% 73%  
407 3% 68%  
408 5% 65%  
409 4% 60%  
410 3% 56%  
411 4% 53% Median
412 4% 49%  
413 4% 45%  
414 6% 41%  
415 3% 35%  
416 4% 32%  
417 3% 28%  
418 3% 24%  
419 3% 21%  
420 3% 18%  
421 3% 16%  
422 2% 13%  
423 2% 11%  
424 2% 9%  
425 1.5% 7%  
426 1.4% 6%  
427 0.7% 5%  
428 0.7% 4%  
429 0.5% 3%  
430 0.7% 3%  
431 0.4% 2%  
432 0.3% 1.4%  
433 0.3% 1.1%  
434 0.2% 0.8%  
435 0.1% 0.6%  
436 0.1% 0.4%  
437 0.1% 0.3%  
438 0.1% 0.2%  
439 0.1% 0.2%  
440 0% 0.1%  
441 0% 0.1%  
442 0% 0.1%  
443 0% 0.1%  
444 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 99.9%  
360 0% 99.9%  
361 0.1% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.8%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.6%  
365 0.1% 99.5%  
366 0.3% 99.4%  
367 0.2% 99.1%  
368 0.4% 98.9%  
369 0.5% 98%  
370 0.7% 98%  
371 0.9% 97%  
372 0.6% 97%  
373 1.1% 96%  
374 1.1% 95%  
375 0.9% 94%  
376 2% 93%  
377 2% 91%  
378 2% 89%  
379 3% 88%  
380 3% 85%  
381 3% 82%  
382 3% 78%  
383 3% 75%  
384 3% 72%  
385 6% 69%  
386 3% 63%  
387 4% 60%  
388 4% 55% Median
389 4% 51%  
390 4% 47%  
391 6% 43%  
392 4% 38%  
393 4% 34%  
394 4% 30%  
395 3% 26%  
396 3% 23%  
397 3% 21%  
398 3% 18%  
399 2% 15%  
400 2% 13%  
401 2% 10%  
402 1.3% 9%  
403 1.3% 7%  
404 1.1% 6%  
405 1.2% 5%  
406 0.7% 4%  
407 0.6% 3%  
408 0.4% 2%  
409 0.5% 2%  
410 0.4% 1.3%  
411 0.2% 0.9%  
412 0.2% 0.7%  
413 0.2% 0.5%  
414 0.1% 0.4%  
415 0.1% 0.3%  
416 0% 0.2%  
417 0% 0.1%  
418 0% 0.1%  
419 0% 0.1%  
420 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 99.9%  
352 0% 99.9%  
353 0% 99.9%  
354 0.1% 99.8%  
355 0.1% 99.8% Majority
356 0.1% 99.7%  
357 0.2% 99.6%  
358 0.2% 99.4%  
359 0.3% 99.2%  
360 0.4% 98.9%  
361 0.4% 98.6%  
362 0.5% 98%  
363 0.6% 98%  
364 0.5% 97%  
365 0.9% 96%  
366 1.1% 95%  
367 1.5% 94%  
368 2% 93%  
369 2% 91%  
370 2% 89%  
371 1.5% 87%  
372 3% 86%  
373 3% 83%  
374 4% 79%  
375 3% 75%  
376 4% 72%  
377 3% 68%  
378 5% 66%  
379 5% 61%  
380 4% 56% Median
381 3% 52%  
382 4% 49%  
383 3% 45%  
384 6% 41%  
385 4% 36%  
386 4% 32%  
387 3% 27%  
388 3% 24%  
389 4% 21%  
390 2% 18%  
391 2% 15%  
392 2% 13%  
393 1.4% 11%  
394 1.3% 9%  
395 2% 8%  
396 1.2% 6%  
397 0.9% 5%  
398 0.7% 4%  
399 0.8% 3% Last Result
400 0.5% 2%  
401 0.6% 2%  
402 0.2% 1.3%  
403 0.3% 1.1%  
404 0.2% 0.8%  
405 0.2% 0.6%  
406 0.1% 0.4%  
407 0.1% 0.3%  
408 0.1% 0.2%  
409 0.1% 0.2%  
410 0% 0.1%  
411 0% 0.1%  
412 0% 0.1%  
413 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
305 0% 100%  
306 0% 99.9%  
307 0% 99.9%  
308 0.1% 99.9%  
309 0.1% 99.8%  
310 0.1% 99.7%  
311 0.1% 99.6%  
312 0.2% 99.5%  
313 0.2% 99.3%  
314 0.5% 99.1%  
315 0.4% 98.6%  
316 0.5% 98%  
317 0.5% 98%  
318 0.6% 97%  
319 0.8% 97%  
320 0.8% 96%  
321 2% 95%  
322 2% 93%  
323 2% 91%  
324 2% 89%  
325 1.3% 87%  
326 2% 86%  
327 3% 84%  
328 5% 82%  
329 3% 77%  
330 5% 74%  
331 3% 69%  
332 3% 65%  
333 2% 62%  
334 4% 60%  
335 6% 56% Median
336 7% 50%  
337 5% 43%  
338 3% 38%  
339 3% 35%  
340 3% 32% Last Result
341 2% 29%  
342 5% 27%  
343 4% 22%  
344 4% 19%  
345 2% 15%  
346 2% 13%  
347 2% 12%  
348 1.2% 10%  
349 2% 9%  
350 1.3% 7%  
351 1.3% 5%  
352 1.1% 4%  
353 0.4% 3%  
354 0.4% 3%  
355 0.5% 2% Majority
356 0.5% 2%  
357 0.4% 1.3%  
358 0.3% 0.9%  
359 0.2% 0.6%  
360 0.1% 0.5%  
361 0.1% 0.4%  
362 0.1% 0.3%  
363 0.1% 0.2%  
364 0.1% 0.2%  
365 0% 0.1%  
366 0% 0.1%  
367 0% 0.1%  
368 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
289 0% 100% Last Result
290 0% 100%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0% 99.9%  
293 0% 99.9%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.5%  
298 0.2% 99.3%  
299 0.4% 99.1%  
300 0.5% 98.7%  
301 0.4% 98%  
302 0.6% 98%  
303 0.7% 97%  
304 1.2% 96%  
305 1.1% 95%  
306 1.3% 94%  
307 1.3% 93%  
308 2% 91%  
309 2% 90%  
310 2% 87%  
311 3% 85%  
312 3% 82%  
313 3% 79%  
314 3% 77%  
315 4% 74%  
316 4% 70%  
317 4% 66%  
318 6% 62%  
319 4% 57%  
320 4% 53% Median
321 4% 49%  
322 4% 45%  
323 3% 40%  
324 6% 37%  
325 3% 31%  
326 3% 28%  
327 3% 25%  
328 3% 22%  
329 3% 18%  
330 3% 15%  
331 2% 12%  
332 2% 11%  
333 2% 9%  
334 0.9% 7%  
335 1.1% 6%  
336 1.1% 5%  
337 0.6% 4%  
338 0.9% 3%  
339 0.7% 3%  
340 0.5% 2%  
341 0.4% 2%  
342 0.2% 1.1%  
343 0.3% 0.9%  
344 0.1% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.5%  
346 0.1% 0.4%  
347 0.1% 0.2%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
288 0% 100%  
289 0% 99.9%  
290 0% 99.9%  
291 0% 99.9%  
292 0.1% 99.9%  
293 0.1% 99.8%  
294 0.1% 99.8%  
295 0.1% 99.7%  
296 0.2% 99.6%  
297 0.2% 99.4%  
298 0.3% 99.2%  
299 0.3% 98.9%  
300 0.7% 98.6%  
301 0.6% 98%  
302 0.7% 97%  
303 0.5% 97%  
304 0.7% 96%  
305 1.2% 95%  
306 2% 94%  
307 1.4% 92%  
308 2% 91%  
309 1.5% 89%  
310 3% 88%  
311 4% 85%  
312 2% 82%  
313 2% 80%  
314 5% 78%  
315 5% 73%  
316 6% 68%  
317 3% 62%  
318 3% 60%  
319 5% 56% Median
320 5% 51%  
321 4% 46%  
322 3% 42%  
323 4% 39%  
324 4% 34%  
325 4% 30%  
326 3% 26% Last Result
327 3% 23%  
328 3% 21%  
329 3% 18%  
330 3% 15%  
331 1.2% 12%  
332 1.4% 11%  
333 2% 10%  
334 2% 8%  
335 1.1% 6%  
336 0.8% 5%  
337 0.8% 4%  
338 0.9% 3%  
339 0.7% 2%  
340 0.3% 2%  
341 0.3% 1.3%  
342 0.3% 1.1%  
343 0.2% 0.8%  
344 0.2% 0.6%  
345 0.1% 0.4%  
346 0.1% 0.3%  
347 0.1% 0.3%  
348 0.1% 0.2%  
349 0% 0.1%  
350 0% 0.1%  
351 0% 0.1%  
352 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
281 0% 100%  
282 0% 99.9%  
283 0% 99.9%  
284 0% 99.9%  
285 0% 99.9%  
286 0.1% 99.8%  
287 0.1% 99.7%  
288 0.1% 99.7%  
289 0.2% 99.5%  
290 0.3% 99.4%  
291 0.3% 99.1%  
292 0.3% 98.8%  
293 0.4% 98.5%  
294 0.6% 98%  
295 0.7% 98%  
296 0.8% 97%  
297 1.0% 96%  
298 2% 95%  
299 1.0% 93%  
300 2% 92% Last Result
301 2% 91%  
302 2% 89%  
303 3% 86%  
304 2% 84%  
305 4% 82%  
306 3% 78%  
307 4% 75%  
308 3% 71%  
309 3% 68%  
310 4% 64%  
311 4% 60%  
312 5% 56% Median
313 5% 51%  
314 4% 45%  
315 4% 41%  
316 3% 37%  
317 4% 34%  
318 3% 30%  
319 4% 27%  
320 3% 24%  
321 3% 21%  
322 4% 18%  
323 2% 14%  
324 2% 12%  
325 2% 10%  
326 1.3% 8%  
327 1.0% 7%  
328 1.0% 6%  
329 1.0% 5%  
330 0.7% 4%  
331 0.7% 3%  
332 0.7% 2%  
333 0.3% 2%  
334 0.3% 1.2%  
335 0.3% 1.0%  
336 0.2% 0.7%  
337 0.1% 0.5%  
338 0.1% 0.4%  
339 0.1% 0.3%  
340 0.1% 0.2%  
341 0% 0.1%  
342 0% 0.1%  
343 0% 0.1%  
344 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
220 0% 100% Last Result
221 0% 100%  
222 0% 100%  
223 0% 100%  
224 0% 100%  
225 0% 100%  
226 0% 100%  
227 0% 100%  
228 0% 100%  
229 0% 100%  
230 0% 100%  
231 0% 99.9%  
232 0% 99.9%  
233 0.1% 99.9%  
234 0.1% 99.8%  
235 0.1% 99.7%  
236 0.1% 99.6%  
237 0.3% 99.5%  
238 0.2% 99.2%  
239 0.4% 99.0%  
240 0.5% 98.6%  
241 0.6% 98%  
242 0.7% 98%  
243 0.9% 97%  
244 1.0% 96%  
245 1.1% 95%  
246 1.2% 94%  
247 2% 93%  
248 2% 90%  
249 3% 88%  
250 2% 86%  
251 3% 84%  
252 3% 81%  
253 4% 78%  
254 4% 74%  
255 3% 69%  
256 4% 66%  
257 4% 62%  
258 5% 58%  
259 5% 53% Median
260 5% 48%  
261 2% 43%  
262 6% 41%  
263 4% 35%  
264 4% 32%  
265 3% 28%  
266 4% 24%  
267 3% 21%  
268 2% 18%  
269 2% 15%  
270 3% 13%  
271 1.5% 10%  
272 2% 9%  
273 1.3% 7%  
274 1.1% 6%  
275 0.9% 5%  
276 0.7% 4%  
277 1.0% 3%  
278 0.4% 2%  
279 0.3% 2%  
280 0.2% 1.3%  
281 0.3% 1.0%  
282 0.2% 0.7%  
283 0.1% 0.5%  
284 0.1% 0.4%  
285 0.1% 0.3%  
286 0% 0.2%  
287 0% 0.2%  
288 0% 0.1%  
289 0% 0.1%  
290 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
150 0% 100%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.1% 99.9%  
153 0.1% 99.8%  
154 0.1% 99.7%  
155 0.2% 99.6%  
156 0.3% 99.4%  
157 0.3% 99.1%  
158 0.6% 98.8%  
159 0.5% 98%  
160 0.8% 98%  
161 1.2% 97%  
162 1.0% 96%  
163 2% 95%  
164 2% 93%  
165 2% 91%  
166 3% 90%  
167 3% 87%  
168 2% 84%  
169 4% 81%  
170 4% 77%  
171 4% 74%  
172 5% 69%  
173 5% 65%  
174 4% 60%  
175 6% 56% Median
176 4% 49%  
177 3% 45%  
178 5% 42%  
179 5% 36%  
180 5% 31%  
181 3% 26%  
182 4% 23%  
183 3% 19%  
184 4% 17%  
185 3% 13%  
186 2% 10%  
187 2% 8%  
188 2% 7%  
189 1.1% 5%  
190 0.8% 4%  
191 0.8% 3%  
192 0.6% 2%  
193 0.4% 2%  
194 0.4% 1.3%  
195 0.2% 0.9%  
196 0.2% 0.8%  
197 0.2% 0.6%  
198 0.1% 0.4%  
199 0.1% 0.3%  
200 0.1% 0.2%  
201 0% 0.1%  
202 0% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
141 0% 100%  
142 0% 99.9%  
143 0% 99.9%  
144 0.1% 99.9%  
145 0.1% 99.8%  
146 0.1% 99.8%  
147 0.2% 99.7%  
148 0.2% 99.5%  
149 0.2% 99.3%  
150 0.3% 99.1%  
151 0.3% 98.8%  
152 0.7% 98%  
153 0.7% 98%  
154 1.1% 97%  
155 2% 96%  
156 2% 94%  
157 2% 93%  
158 2% 91%  
159 3% 89%  
160 3% 86%  
161 5% 82%  
162 5% 78%  
163 2% 73%  
164 4% 70%  
165 4% 67%  
166 4% 63%  
167 5% 59% Median
168 5% 53%  
169 5% 49%  
170 6% 44%  
171 3% 38%  
172 6% 35%  
173 5% 29%  
174 4% 24%  
175 3% 20%  
176 3% 17%  
177 3% 14%  
178 2% 11%  
179 2% 10%  
180 2% 7%  
181 0.9% 6%  
182 1.2% 5%  
183 0.5% 3%  
184 0.7% 3%  
185 0.6% 2%  
186 0.5% 2%  
187 0.4% 1.2%  
188 0.3% 0.8%  
189 0.2% 0.6%  
190 0.1% 0.4%  
191 0.1% 0.3%  
192 0.1% 0.2%  
193 0.1% 0.1%  
194 0% 0.1%  
195 0% 0.1%  
196 0% 0%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations