Opinion Poll by INSA and YouGov, 17–18 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 26.8% 28.0% 26.7–29.4% 26.3–29.8% 26.0–30.1% 25.4–30.8%
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 8.9% 17.0% 15.9–18.2% 15.6–18.5% 15.3–18.8% 14.8–19.4%
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 20.5% 15.0% 14.0–16.1% 13.7–16.4% 13.4–16.7% 12.9–17.3%
Alternative für Deutschland 12.6% 11.0% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.3% 9.6–12.5% 9.2–13.0%
Freie Demokratische Partei 10.7% 9.0% 8.2–9.9% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.4% 7.4–10.9%
Die Linke 9.2% 8.0% 7.2–8.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.8–9.4% 6.5–9.8%
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 6.2% 7.0% 6.3–7.8% 6.1–8.0% 5.9–8.2% 5.6–8.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands 200 209 199–219 196–222 193–224 189–229
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 67 127 118–135 116–138 115–139 111–144
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 153 112 104–120 102–122 100–124 96–128
Alternative für Deutschland 94 82 75–89 74–91 72–93 69–97
Freie Demokratische Partei 80 67 61–74 59–75 58–77 55–81
Die Linke 69 60 54–66 52–68 51–70 48–73
Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 46 52 47–58 45–60 44–61 42–64

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
184 0% 100%  
185 0% 99.9%  
186 0% 99.9%  
187 0.1% 99.8%  
188 0.2% 99.7%  
189 0.2% 99.6%  
190 0.3% 99.4%  
191 0.4% 99.1%  
192 0.6% 98.8%  
193 0.7% 98%  
194 0.7% 97%  
195 1.1% 97%  
196 2% 96%  
197 1.3% 94%  
198 2% 93%  
199 3% 91%  
200 3% 88% Last Result
201 3% 85%  
202 2% 82%  
203 5% 79%  
204 5% 74%  
205 4% 69%  
206 4% 65%  
207 5% 62%  
208 7% 57%  
209 4% 50% Median
210 4% 46%  
211 5% 42%  
212 6% 36%  
213 4% 30%  
214 4% 26%  
215 4% 22%  
216 3% 19%  
217 3% 16%  
218 2% 13%  
219 2% 10%  
220 2% 8%  
221 1.2% 6%  
222 1.1% 5%  
223 1.3% 4%  
224 0.7% 3%  
225 0.5% 2%  
226 0.6% 2%  
227 0.3% 1.1%  
228 0.2% 0.8%  
229 0.1% 0.6%  
230 0.1% 0.4%  
231 0.1% 0.3%  
232 0% 0.2%  
233 0% 0.1%  
234 0% 0.1%  
235 0% 0.1%  
236 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bündnis 90/Die Grünen page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100% Last Result
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 100%  
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100%  
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0% 100%  
99 0% 100%  
100 0% 100%  
101 0% 100%  
102 0% 100%  
103 0% 100%  
104 0% 100%  
105 0% 100%  
106 0% 100%  
107 0% 99.9%  
108 0.1% 99.9%  
109 0.1% 99.8%  
110 0.2% 99.7%  
111 0.2% 99.6%  
112 0.4% 99.3%  
113 0.7% 98.9%  
114 0.7% 98%  
115 1.1% 98%  
116 2% 96%  
117 2% 95%  
118 3% 92%  
119 4% 90%  
120 4% 86%  
121 5% 82%  
122 4% 77%  
123 6% 73%  
124 6% 67%  
125 5% 62%  
126 4% 57%  
127 6% 52% Median
128 6% 46%  
129 5% 40%  
130 4% 35%  
131 6% 31%  
132 5% 25%  
133 4% 21%  
134 4% 17%  
135 3% 13%  
136 2% 10%  
137 2% 8%  
138 2% 5%  
139 1.0% 4%  
140 0.7% 2%  
141 0.5% 2%  
142 0.5% 1.3%  
143 0.2% 0.8%  
144 0.2% 0.6%  
145 0.1% 0.4%  
146 0.1% 0.3%  
147 0% 0.2%  
148 0.1% 0.1%  
149 0% 0.1%  
150 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.5%  
98 0.6% 99.2%  
99 0.7% 98.7%  
100 0.8% 98%  
101 2% 97%  
102 2% 96%  
103 2% 94%  
104 3% 91%  
105 3% 88%  
106 3% 85%  
107 6% 82%  
108 7% 76%  
109 7% 69%  
110 5% 62%  
111 6% 57%  
112 6% 51% Median
113 7% 45%  
114 6% 38%  
115 5% 32%  
116 4% 27%  
117 4% 23%  
118 5% 18%  
119 3% 13%  
120 2% 10%  
121 2% 8%  
122 1.3% 6%  
123 2% 5%  
124 1.2% 3%  
125 0.6% 2%  
126 0.4% 1.5%  
127 0.4% 1.1%  
128 0.3% 0.7%  
129 0.1% 0.4%  
130 0.1% 0.3%  
131 0.1% 0.2%  
132 0% 0.1%  
133 0% 0.1%  
134 0% 0%  
135 0% 0%  
136 0% 0%  
137 0% 0%  
138 0% 0%  
139 0% 0%  
140 0% 0%  
141 0% 0%  
142 0% 0%  
143 0% 0%  
144 0% 0%  
145 0% 0%  
146 0% 0%  
147 0% 0%  
148 0% 0%  
149 0% 0%  
150 0% 0%  
151 0% 0%  
152 0% 0%  
153 0% 0% Last Result

Alternative für Deutschland

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Alternative für Deutschland page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 0.4% 99.3%  
71 0.9% 98.9%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 95%  
75 3% 93%  
76 3% 90%  
77 5% 86%  
78 5% 81%  
79 6% 76%  
80 7% 70%  
81 8% 63%  
82 7% 54% Median
83 7% 47%  
84 7% 40%  
85 6% 33%  
86 5% 27%  
87 6% 23%  
88 4% 17%  
89 3% 13%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 1.5% 5%  
93 1.3% 3%  
94 0.8% 2% Last Result
95 0.4% 1.3%  
96 0.3% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Freie Demokratische Partei

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Freie Demokratische Partei page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.3% 99.7%  
56 0.5% 99.4%  
57 0.9% 98.9%  
58 1.3% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 3% 95%  
61 3% 91%  
62 5% 88%  
63 6% 83%  
64 7% 77%  
65 8% 69%  
66 9% 62%  
67 7% 53% Median
68 8% 46%  
69 9% 38%  
70 6% 30%  
71 5% 24%  
72 5% 18%  
73 3% 14%  
74 3% 10%  
75 3% 7%  
76 1.5% 5%  
77 1.0% 3%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.4%  
80 0.3% 0.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Die Linke

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Die Linke page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.5%  
50 1.0% 99.1%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 4% 92%  
55 5% 88%  
56 7% 83%  
57 7% 76%  
58 8% 69%  
59 8% 62%  
60 9% 54% Median
61 9% 45%  
62 7% 36%  
63 7% 29%  
64 5% 22%  
65 5% 17%  
66 4% 12%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.3% 4% Last Result
70 1.0% 3%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 0.4% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.6% 99.5%  
43 1.0% 99.0%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 4% 94% Last Result
47 4% 91%  
48 6% 87%  
49 6% 80%  
50 9% 74%  
51 9% 65%  
52 10% 56% Median
53 9% 47%  
54 8% 38%  
55 7% 30%  
56 6% 23%  
57 5% 17%  
58 4% 12%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.4% 3%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.6% 1.3%  
64 0.3% 0.7%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 466 500 100% 490–509 487–512 484–515 479–519
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 393 455 100% 445–465 442–468 439–471 434–476
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 479 440 100% 429–451 426–454 423–455 419–461
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 420 411 100% 399–421 397–424 394–427 389–432
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 313 388 100% 377–399 374–402 371–404 366–409
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 399 373 98% 362–384 359–387 356–389 351–394
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 340 343 10% 332–354 329–357 327–360 322–365
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern 326 328 0.1% 317–339 314–342 312–345 306–350
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 300 306 0% 295–317 292–320 290–322 284–327
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 289 298 0% 288–310 285–312 282–315 277–320
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands 220 239 0% 228–249 225–252 223–255 218–259
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei 233 178 0% 170–188 167–191 165–194 161–198
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke 222 171 0% 162–181 160–183 157–187 153–191

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
466 0% 100% Last Result
467 0% 100%  
468 0% 100%  
469 0% 100%  
470 0% 100%  
471 0% 100%  
472 0% 100%  
473 0% 100%  
474 0% 100%  
475 0% 99.9%  
476 0.1% 99.9%  
477 0.1% 99.8%  
478 0.1% 99.7%  
479 0.2% 99.6%  
480 0.2% 99.5%  
481 0.4% 99.2%  
482 0.3% 98.9%  
483 0.6% 98.6%  
484 0.8% 98%  
485 0.7% 97%  
486 1.2% 97%  
487 1.3% 95%  
488 1.3% 94%  
489 2% 93%  
490 3% 91%  
491 3% 88%  
492 3% 85%  
493 3% 82%  
494 4% 79%  
495 4% 75%  
496 5% 71%  
497 5% 66%  
498 4% 61%  
499 6% 57%  
500 5% 51% Median
501 5% 46%  
502 6% 41%  
503 4% 35%  
504 5% 31%  
505 5% 26%  
506 3% 21%  
507 3% 18%  
508 3% 15%  
509 2% 12%  
510 2% 10%  
511 2% 8%  
512 1.1% 6%  
513 1.1% 5%  
514 0.7% 3%  
515 1.0% 3%  
516 0.5% 2%  
517 0.3% 1.3%  
518 0.3% 1.0%  
519 0.2% 0.7%  
520 0.1% 0.4%  
521 0.1% 0.3%  
522 0.1% 0.2%  
523 0.1% 0.1%  
524 0% 0.1%  
525 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
393 0% 100% Last Result
394 0% 100%  
395 0% 100%  
396 0% 100%  
397 0% 100%  
398 0% 100%  
399 0% 100%  
400 0% 100%  
401 0% 100%  
402 0% 100%  
403 0% 100%  
404 0% 100%  
405 0% 100%  
406 0% 100%  
407 0% 100%  
408 0% 100%  
409 0% 100%  
410 0% 100%  
411 0% 100%  
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 100%  
414 0% 100%  
415 0% 100%  
416 0% 100%  
417 0% 100%  
418 0% 100%  
419 0% 100%  
420 0% 100%  
421 0% 100%  
422 0% 100%  
423 0% 100%  
424 0% 100%  
425 0% 100%  
426 0% 100%  
427 0% 100%  
428 0% 100%  
429 0% 99.9%  
430 0.1% 99.9%  
431 0.1% 99.9%  
432 0.1% 99.8%  
433 0.1% 99.7%  
434 0.3% 99.6%  
435 0.2% 99.3%  
436 0.3% 99.2%  
437 0.4% 98.8%  
438 0.5% 98%  
439 0.8% 98%  
440 0.8% 97%  
441 1.0% 96%  
442 2% 95%  
443 1.3% 94%  
444 2% 92%  
445 3% 90%  
446 2% 87%  
447 3% 85%  
448 3% 82%  
449 4% 79%  
450 5% 75%  
451 3% 71%  
452 5% 67%  
453 5% 62%  
454 4% 57%  
455 5% 53% Median
456 5% 48%  
457 5% 42%  
458 5% 37%  
459 4% 32%  
460 3% 28%  
461 5% 25%  
462 2% 20%  
463 4% 18%  
464 2% 14%  
465 2% 11%  
466 2% 9%  
467 2% 8%  
468 1.1% 6%  
469 1.3% 5%  
470 0.6% 3%  
471 0.7% 3%  
472 0.5% 2%  
473 0.4% 1.5%  
474 0.4% 1.1%  
475 0.1% 0.7%  
476 0.2% 0.6%  
477 0.1% 0.3%  
478 0.1% 0.3%  
479 0% 0.1%  
480 0.1% 0.1%  
481 0% 0.1%  
482 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
412 0% 100%  
413 0% 99.9%  
414 0.1% 99.9%  
415 0.1% 99.9%  
416 0.1% 99.8%  
417 0.1% 99.8%  
418 0.1% 99.7%  
419 0.1% 99.6%  
420 0.2% 99.4%  
421 0.5% 99.3%  
422 0.9% 98.8%  
423 0.5% 98%  
424 0.4% 97%  
425 1.2% 97%  
426 1.2% 96%  
427 2% 95%  
428 0.9% 93%  
429 3% 92%  
430 2% 90%  
431 2% 88%  
432 6% 86%  
433 4% 80%  
434 4% 76%  
435 4% 72%  
436 4% 69%  
437 3% 64%  
438 4% 61%  
439 4% 57%  
440 6% 53% Median
441 4% 48%  
442 3% 43%  
443 6% 40%  
444 7% 35%  
445 4% 27%  
446 3% 23%  
447 2% 20%  
448 3% 18%  
449 2% 15%  
450 2% 13%  
451 3% 11%  
452 2% 8%  
453 0.8% 6%  
454 1.3% 5%  
455 2% 4%  
456 0.7% 2%  
457 0.5% 2%  
458 0.3% 1.4%  
459 0.3% 1.1%  
460 0.2% 0.8%  
461 0.1% 0.6%  
462 0.2% 0.4%  
463 0.1% 0.3%  
464 0.1% 0.2%  
465 0% 0.1%  
466 0% 0.1%  
467 0% 0%  
468 0% 0%  
469 0% 0%  
470 0% 0%  
471 0% 0%  
472 0% 0%  
473 0% 0%  
474 0% 0%  
475 0% 0%  
476 0% 0%  
477 0% 0%  
478 0% 0%  
479 0% 0% Last Result

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
383 0% 100%  
384 0% 99.9%  
385 0% 99.9%  
386 0.1% 99.9%  
387 0.1% 99.8%  
388 0.1% 99.7%  
389 0.2% 99.6%  
390 0.3% 99.4%  
391 0.2% 99.2%  
392 0.4% 98.9%  
393 0.6% 98%  
394 0.6% 98%  
395 0.9% 97%  
396 1.0% 96%  
397 2% 95%  
398 1.3% 94%  
399 3% 92%  
400 2% 90%  
401 3% 88%  
402 2% 85%  
403 4% 82%  
404 3% 79%  
405 4% 75%  
406 4% 72%  
407 5% 68%  
408 5% 62%  
409 3% 57%  
410 4% 54% Median
411 6% 50%  
412 4% 44%  
413 4% 41%  
414 4% 36%  
415 3% 32%  
416 5% 29%  
417 4% 24%  
418 4% 20%  
419 3% 17%  
420 2% 14% Last Result
421 2% 12%  
422 2% 9%  
423 1.5% 7%  
424 1.2% 6%  
425 1.2% 5%  
426 0.5% 3%  
427 1.0% 3%  
428 0.6% 2%  
429 0.4% 1.5%  
430 0.3% 1.0%  
431 0.2% 0.7%  
432 0.2% 0.5%  
433 0.1% 0.4%  
434 0.1% 0.3%  
435 0% 0.2%  
436 0% 0.1%  
437 0% 0.1%  
438 0% 0.1%  
439 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
313 0% 100% Last Result
314 0% 100%  
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 100%  
317 0% 100%  
318 0% 100%  
319 0% 100%  
320 0% 100%  
321 0% 100%  
322 0% 100%  
323 0% 100%  
324 0% 100%  
325 0% 100%  
326 0% 100%  
327 0% 100%  
328 0% 100%  
329 0% 100%  
330 0% 100%  
331 0% 100%  
332 0% 100%  
333 0% 100%  
334 0% 100%  
335 0% 100%  
336 0% 100%  
337 0% 100%  
338 0% 100%  
339 0% 100%  
340 0% 100%  
341 0% 100%  
342 0% 100%  
343 0% 100%  
344 0% 100%  
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 100%  
347 0% 100%  
348 0% 100%  
349 0% 100%  
350 0% 100%  
351 0% 100%  
352 0% 100%  
353 0% 100%  
354 0% 100%  
355 0% 100% Majority
356 0% 100%  
357 0% 100%  
358 0% 100%  
359 0% 100%  
360 0% 100%  
361 0% 99.9%  
362 0.1% 99.9%  
363 0.1% 99.8%  
364 0.1% 99.8%  
365 0.1% 99.7%  
366 0.2% 99.6%  
367 0.2% 99.4%  
368 0.3% 99.2%  
369 0.3% 98.8%  
370 0.6% 98.6%  
371 0.6% 98%  
372 0.8% 97%  
373 1.0% 97%  
374 0.9% 96%  
375 2% 95%  
376 2% 93%  
377 2% 91%  
378 3% 89%  
379 2% 87%  
380 3% 85%  
381 4% 81%  
382 4% 77%  
383 4% 73%  
384 5% 70%  
385 4% 65%  
386 4% 61%  
387 5% 57%  
388 7% 52% Median
389 3% 45%  
390 5% 42%  
391 4% 37%  
392 3% 33%  
393 3% 29%  
394 4% 26%  
395 4% 21%  
396 3% 18%  
397 2% 15%  
398 2% 13%  
399 2% 10%  
400 2% 8%  
401 1.2% 6%  
402 1.2% 5%  
403 1.2% 4%  
404 0.5% 3%  
405 0.4% 2%  
406 0.7% 2%  
407 0.5% 1.3%  
408 0.2% 0.8%  
409 0.2% 0.6%  
410 0.1% 0.5%  
411 0.1% 0.3%  
412 0.1% 0.2%  
413 0.1% 0.2%  
414 0% 0.1%  
415 0% 0.1%  
416 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
345 0% 100%  
346 0% 99.9%  
347 0.1% 99.9%  
348 0.1% 99.9%  
349 0.1% 99.8%  
350 0.1% 99.7%  
351 0.2% 99.6%  
352 0.2% 99.4%  
353 0.4% 99.2%  
354 0.4% 98.8%  
355 0.5% 98% Majority
356 0.8% 98%  
357 1.1% 97%  
358 0.9% 96%  
359 1.2% 95%  
360 2% 94%  
361 1.2% 92%  
362 2% 91%  
363 4% 89%  
364 2% 85%  
365 2% 83%  
366 3% 80%  
367 4% 77%  
368 4% 73%  
369 4% 69%  
370 4% 64%  
371 4% 60%  
372 4% 56%  
373 5% 52% Median
374 6% 47%  
375 3% 41%  
376 6% 38%  
377 3% 32%  
378 5% 30%  
379 3% 25%  
380 4% 22%  
381 3% 18%  
382 2% 15%  
383 2% 13%  
384 2% 11%  
385 2% 9%  
386 1.1% 7%  
387 2% 5%  
388 0.7% 4%  
389 1.0% 3%  
390 0.5% 2%  
391 0.5% 2%  
392 0.3% 1.3%  
393 0.2% 1.0%  
394 0.3% 0.8%  
395 0.1% 0.5%  
396 0.1% 0.4%  
397 0.1% 0.2%  
398 0.1% 0.2%  
399 0% 0.1% Last Result
400 0% 0.1%  
401 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Alternative für Deutschland – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
315 0% 100%  
316 0% 99.9%  
317 0% 99.9%  
318 0% 99.9%  
319 0.1% 99.8%  
320 0.1% 99.7%  
321 0.1% 99.7%  
322 0.2% 99.5%  
323 0.3% 99.3%  
324 0.3% 99.0%  
325 0.4% 98.7%  
326 0.6% 98%  
327 0.8% 98%  
328 0.9% 97%  
329 1.3% 96%  
330 1.4% 95%  
331 2% 93%  
332 2% 91%  
333 2% 90%  
334 3% 88%  
335 3% 84%  
336 2% 82%  
337 5% 80%  
338 4% 75%  
339 5% 70%  
340 3% 65% Last Result
341 5% 62%  
342 5% 58%  
343 5% 53% Median
344 4% 48%  
345 4% 44%  
346 4% 39%  
347 4% 36%  
348 4% 31%  
349 3% 27%  
350 4% 24%  
351 3% 20%  
352 3% 18%  
353 3% 15%  
354 2% 12%  
355 2% 10% Majority
356 2% 8%  
357 2% 6%  
358 1.3% 5%  
359 0.6% 3%  
360 0.5% 3%  
361 0.8% 2%  
362 0.4% 1.4%  
363 0.2% 1.0%  
364 0.2% 0.8%  
365 0.2% 0.5%  
366 0.1% 0.4%  
367 0.1% 0.3%  
368 0.1% 0.2%  
369 0% 0.1%  
370 0% 0.1%  
371 0% 0.1%  
372 0% 0%  

Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei – Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
300 0% 100%  
301 0% 99.9%  
302 0% 99.9%  
303 0.1% 99.9%  
304 0.1% 99.8%  
305 0.1% 99.8%  
306 0.2% 99.7%  
307 0.2% 99.5%  
308 0.2% 99.3%  
309 0.3% 99.0%  
310 0.6% 98.8%  
311 0.5% 98%  
312 0.6% 98%  
313 1.4% 97%  
314 0.9% 96%  
315 2% 95%  
316 2% 93%  
317 2% 91%  
318 2% 89%  
319 2% 87%  
320 3% 85%  
321 4% 82%  
322 3% 78%  
323 5% 75%  
324 6% 70%  
325 4% 64%  
326 5% 60% Last Result
327 4% 55%  
328 4% 51% Median
329 4% 48%  
330 3% 44%  
331 5% 41%  
332 4% 36%  
333 4% 31%  
334 6% 28%  
335 3% 22%  
336 3% 19%  
337 3% 15%  
338 2% 12%  
339 2% 11%  
340 1.1% 8%  
341 1.3% 7%  
342 1.3% 6%  
343 0.8% 5%  
344 1.0% 4%  
345 0.9% 3%  
346 0.6% 2%  
347 0.5% 1.4%  
348 0.3% 0.9%  
349 0.1% 0.6%  
350 0.1% 0.5%  
351 0.1% 0.4%  
352 0.1% 0.3%  
353 0.1% 0.2%  
354 0% 0.1%  
355 0% 0.1% Majority
356 0% 0.1%  
357 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
279 0% 100%  
280 0% 99.9%  
281 0% 99.9%  
282 0.1% 99.8%  
283 0.1% 99.8%  
284 0.2% 99.6%  
285 0.2% 99.5%  
286 0.3% 99.2%  
287 0.3% 98.9%  
288 0.5% 98.7%  
289 0.6% 98%  
290 0.9% 98%  
291 1.2% 97%  
292 1.5% 95%  
293 2% 94%  
294 2% 92%  
295 2% 90%  
296 2% 89%  
297 3% 86%  
298 3% 84%  
299 4% 81%  
300 4% 77% Last Result
301 5% 73%  
302 3% 68%  
303 5% 65%  
304 4% 59%  
305 5% 55%  
306 3% 51% Median
307 5% 47%  
308 4% 42%  
309 5% 38%  
310 4% 33%  
311 3% 29%  
312 5% 26%  
313 4% 21%  
314 2% 17%  
315 3% 15%  
316 1.3% 12%  
317 2% 11%  
318 2% 8%  
319 0.9% 6%  
320 1.2% 5%  
321 1.2% 4%  
322 0.7% 3%  
323 0.6% 2%  
324 0.4% 2%  
325 0.4% 1.3%  
326 0.2% 0.9%  
327 0.2% 0.7%  
328 0.1% 0.5%  
329 0.1% 0.4%  
330 0.1% 0.2%  
331 0.1% 0.2%  
332 0% 0.1%  
333 0% 0.1%  
334 0% 0.1%  
335 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
271 0% 100%  
272 0% 99.9%  
273 0% 99.9%  
274 0% 99.9%  
275 0.1% 99.8%  
276 0.1% 99.7%  
277 0.2% 99.6%  
278 0.2% 99.5%  
279 0.3% 99.3%  
280 0.4% 99.0%  
281 0.6% 98.5%  
282 1.0% 98%  
283 0.5% 97%  
284 1.2% 97%  
285 1.2% 95%  
286 1.5% 94%  
287 2% 93%  
288 2% 91%  
289 2% 88% Last Result
290 3% 86%  
291 4% 83%  
292 4% 80%  
293 5% 76%  
294 3% 71%  
295 4% 68%  
296 4% 64%  
297 4% 59%  
298 6% 56%  
299 4% 50% Median
300 3% 46%  
301 5% 43%  
302 5% 38%  
303 4% 32%  
304 4% 28%  
305 3% 25%  
306 4% 21%  
307 2% 18%  
308 3% 15%  
309 2% 12%  
310 3% 10%  
311 1.3% 8%  
312 2% 6%  
313 1.0% 5%  
314 0.9% 4%  
315 0.6% 3%  
316 0.6% 2%  
317 0.4% 2%  
318 0.2% 1.1%  
319 0.3% 0.8%  
320 0.2% 0.6%  
321 0.1% 0.4%  
322 0.1% 0.3%  
323 0.1% 0.2%  
324 0% 0.1%  
325 0% 0.1%  
326 0% 0.1%  
327 0% 0%  

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen – Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
213 0% 100%  
214 0% 99.9%  
215 0.1% 99.9%  
216 0.1% 99.8%  
217 0.1% 99.8%  
218 0.1% 99.6%  
219 0.3% 99.5%  
220 0.4% 99.2% Last Result
221 0.3% 98.9%  
222 0.7% 98.5%  
223 0.8% 98%  
224 0.9% 97%  
225 1.2% 96%  
226 2% 95%  
227 1.2% 93%  
228 2% 92%  
229 3% 90%  
230 2% 87%  
231 3% 84%  
232 5% 82%  
233 4% 77%  
234 4% 73%  
235 6% 69%  
236 4% 64%  
237 4% 60%  
238 5% 55%  
239 5% 50% Median
240 4% 45%  
241 6% 41%  
242 5% 36%  
243 3% 31%  
244 4% 28%  
245 4% 24%  
246 3% 20%  
247 3% 17%  
248 2% 14%  
249 2% 12%  
250 2% 9%  
251 2% 7%  
252 1.3% 6%  
253 1.2% 4%  
254 0.6% 3%  
255 0.7% 3%  
256 0.6% 2%  
257 0.3% 1.2%  
258 0.2% 0.9%  
259 0.2% 0.7%  
260 0.2% 0.5%  
261 0.1% 0.3%  
262 0.1% 0.2%  
263 0% 0.2%  
264 0% 0.1%  
265 0% 0.1%  
266 0% 0%  

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Freie Demokratische Partei

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
156 0% 100%  
157 0.1% 99.9%  
158 0.1% 99.9%  
159 0.1% 99.8%  
160 0.2% 99.7%  
161 0.2% 99.5%  
162 0.4% 99.3%  
163 0.4% 98.9%  
164 0.7% 98%  
165 1.0% 98%  
166 0.9% 97%  
167 1.4% 96%  
168 2% 94%  
169 2% 92%  
170 2% 90%  
171 3% 88%  
172 4% 85%  
173 4% 81%  
174 6% 77%  
175 3% 72%  
176 5% 68%  
177 6% 63%  
178 7% 57%  
179 3% 50% Median
180 6% 47%  
181 5% 41%  
182 5% 36%  
183 5% 31%  
184 4% 26%  
185 3% 22%  
186 5% 19%  
187 2% 14%  
188 2% 12%  
189 2% 10%  
190 2% 8%  
191 1.2% 6%  
192 1.1% 4%  
193 0.8% 3%  
194 0.8% 3%  
195 0.5% 2%  
196 0.4% 1.3%  
197 0.3% 0.9%  
198 0.2% 0.7%  
199 0.1% 0.4%  
200 0.1% 0.3%  
201 0.1% 0.2%  
202 0.1% 0.1%  
203 0% 0.1%  
204 0% 0.1%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0%  
223 0% 0%  
224 0% 0%  
225 0% 0%  
226 0% 0%  
227 0% 0%  
228 0% 0%  
229 0% 0%  
230 0% 0%  
231 0% 0%  
232 0% 0%  
233 0% 0% Last Result

Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – Die Linke

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
148 0% 100%  
149 0% 99.9%  
150 0% 99.9%  
151 0% 99.9%  
152 0.2% 99.9%  
153 0.3% 99.7%  
154 0.1% 99.4%  
155 0.2% 99.2%  
156 0.7% 99.1%  
157 1.1% 98%  
158 0.4% 97%  
159 0.3% 97%  
160 2% 97%  
161 3% 95%  
162 3% 92%  
163 0.7% 88%  
164 2% 88%  
165 5% 85%  
166 6% 80%  
167 2% 75%  
168 3% 73%  
169 7% 70%  
170 10% 63%  
171 5% 53%  
172 2% 49% Median
173 4% 47%  
174 9% 42%  
175 5% 33%  
176 2% 28%  
177 2% 27%  
178 6% 24%  
179 6% 18%  
180 2% 12%  
181 0.8% 11%  
182 3% 10%  
183 2% 7%  
184 1.1% 5%  
185 0.3% 4%  
186 0.9% 3%  
187 1.1% 3%  
188 0.6% 2%  
189 0.2% 1.0%  
190 0.1% 0.8%  
191 0.3% 0.7%  
192 0.2% 0.4%  
193 0.1% 0.2%  
194 0% 0.2%  
195 0.1% 0.1%  
196 0% 0.1%  
197 0% 0%  
198 0% 0%  
199 0% 0%  
200 0% 0%  
201 0% 0%  
202 0% 0%  
203 0% 0%  
204 0% 0%  
205 0% 0%  
206 0% 0%  
207 0% 0%  
208 0% 0%  
209 0% 0%  
210 0% 0%  
211 0% 0%  
212 0% 0%  
213 0% 0%  
214 0% 0%  
215 0% 0%  
216 0% 0%  
217 0% 0%  
218 0% 0%  
219 0% 0%  
220 0% 0%  
221 0% 0%  
222 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations